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Boyd Gaming (BYD)
NYSE:BYD
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Boyd Gaming
(NYSE:BYD)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$97.00
▲(14.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance trends (notably resilient operating cash flow and balance-sheet improvements) and very attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by questions around 2025 earnings quality and cash conversion, plus mixed technical momentum and earnings-call risks tied to lower 2026 online profitability, heavy capex, and rising leverage.
Positive Factors
Consistent Operating Cash Flow
Consistent OCF near $0.9–$1.0B provides durable internal financing to fund maintenance capex, growth projects, dividends and buybacks. That recurring cash generation reduces reliance on external funding and supports operational resilience across cycles.
Material Balance-Sheet Strengthening
The ~$1.8B FanDuel monetization and deleveraging to ~1.7x materially improved liquidity and capital flexibility. A stronger capital base lowers refinancing risk, supports large development projects and sustained shareholder returns without immediately stressing covenants.
Market Position & Growth Pipeline
Record revenues and sustained property-level margins (~40%), along with >50% margins in Las Vegas locals, reflect durable competitive strength in core markets. Targeted projects (Cadence, Virginia resort, Suncoast) should convert locale strength into long-term cash flow growth.
Negative Factors
Unusually High 2025 Margins / Earnings Quality
The sharp 2025 margin jump likely reflects one-time benefits or accounting effects; if margins revert toward historical norms, earnings and cash available for returns could compress materially, creating execution risk for planned repurchases and capex funded by 2025-level profits.
Weakened Cash Conversion in 2025
Lower FCF conversion reduces internally available capital despite high reported net income. If weaker conversion persists, the company will face tougher tradeoffs between funding growth, maintaining dividends and buybacks, or raising leverage to meet commitments.
High Capex & Rising Leverage Risk
A heavy 2026 capex program plus a ~$340M tax payment and sustained buybacks are set to push leverage toward ~2.5x. This capital intensity increases sensitivity to cyclical demand, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and could constrain flexibility if operations soften.
Boyd Gaming (BYD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.43B
Dividend Yield0.84%
Average Volume (3M)844.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.8
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth5.91%
EPS Growth336.91%
CountryUS
Employees16,129
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.21
Shares Outstanding75,492,200
10 Day Avg. Volume711,488
30 Day Avg. Volume844,455
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.70
P/FCF Ratio17.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$94.90Price Target Upside11.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)7.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.15B
Boyd Gaming Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBoyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. It operates through three segments: Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, and Midwest & South. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 28 gaming entertainment properties located in Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. It also engages in owning and operating a travel agency. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyBoyd Gaming generates revenue primarily through its gaming operations, which include slot machines, table games, and sports betting across its casinos. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the volume of gaming activity, with a significant portion of earnings derived from players' losses. In addition to gaming revenue, Boyd Gaming also earns income from hotel room bookings, food and beverage sales, and other entertainment offerings at its properties. The company has established partnerships with various online gaming platforms, expanding its reach in the digital gaming space, which contributes to its revenue growth. Strategic acquisitions and investments in new properties also play a crucial role in enhancing its earnings potential.
Boyd Gaming Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Boyd Gaming Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operating performance, record revenues, solid margins (40% property-level; >50% on Las Vegas locals excluding Orleans), substantial shareholder returns ( $836M in 2025 and an 11% reduction in share count), and meaningful monetization of FanDuel proceeds (~ $1.8B) that materially strengthened the balance sheet. Management outlined a robust capital program with several growth projects (Cadence Crossing, Suncoast, Norfolk resort, Ameristar expansion) and reiterated confidence in core customer strength. Offsetting items include destination demand softness (notably at the Orleans and Downtown/LV destination traffic), weather-related and asset-closure impacts (~$4–$5M), changes to the online revenue profile translating into a sizeable reduction in online EBITDAR guidance for 2026, and an expected rise in leverage after a near-term tax payment and continued capex/repurchases. Overall, positive operational momentum, strong cash returns, and a fortified balance sheet outweigh the transitory and identifiable headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Company-Wide Revenues and Stable EBITDAR
Recorded company-wide revenues (record level) for FY2025 and delivered EBITDAR of approximately $1.4 billion for the year, consistent with the prior year and the last five years; property-level margins remained at 40%.
Strong Q4 Results
Fourth-quarter revenues of $1.1 billion and EBITDAR of $337 million; after adjusting for ~ $40 million of items (online changes and severe winter weather), company-wide EBITDAR was even with the prior year, reflecting operational discipline.
Las Vegas Locals Strength
Las Vegas locals (excluding the Orleans) achieved EBITDAR growth of nearly 2.5% in the quarter with margins once again exceeding 50%, driven by strong play from Southern Nevada residents and core customers.
Material Balance Sheet and Liquidity Actions from FanDuel Transaction
Monetized FanDuel ownership interest for nearly $1.8 billion in cash proceeds, used to reduce leverage below 2.0x at year-end (total leverage 1.7x, lease-adjusted 2.2x) and strengthen the balance sheet.
Significant Capital Returned to Shareholders
Returned $836 million to shareholders in 2025 ( $778 million share repurchases and $58 million dividends); repurchased 10.1 million shares at an average price of $76.91; total share count reduced 11% year-over-year to 76.4 million shares and 32% since Oct 2021.
Active, Targeted Capital Investment Program
Invested $148 million in Q4 and $588 million in FY2025; 2026 capex guidance of $650–$700 million (including ~$250M recurring maintenance, $75M Cadence/Paradise growth, $250–300M Virginia project, $75M hotel renovations).
Progress on Growth Projects and Property Enhancements
Cadence Crossing opening late March 2026; Suncoast modernization expected complete end of Q3 2026; Ameristar St. Charles meeting space driving forward bookings; Norfolk $750M resort construction vertical with transitional casino open; Sky River expansion first phase online in February.
Online and Managed Business Contributions
Boyd Interactive and market access agreements drove full-year online EBITDAR of $63 million; managed & other (Sky River) expected to generate $110–$114 million EBITDAR in 2026, and online segment projected at $30–$35 million in 2026 given changed revenue-share dynamics.
Negative Updates
Destination Demand Weakness (Orleans & Strip Exposure)
Softness in destination business led to a nearly $6 million decline in cash hotel revenues in Q4 (majority at the Orleans); Downtown Las Vegas saw ~10% decline in pedestrian traffic on the Fremont Street Experience, pressuring cash hotel revenues and destination-dependent spend.
Online Segment Impact from Transaction Dynamics
Quarterly EBITDAR comparisons were reduced by approximately $40 million primarily due to changes in the online segment related to the FanDuel transaction; online EBITDAR is forecast to decline from $63 million (FY2025) to $30–$35 million in 2026—a decrease of roughly 44%–52%.
Weather and Asset Closure Headwinds
Severe winter weather in December (and similar weather impacts in January) negatively impacted Midwest & South results; combined impact of weather and the permanent closure of Sam’s Town Tunica reduced quarterly EBITDAR by about $4 million; Q1 weather impact estimated similar to prior year (~$5 million).
Leverage Expected to Increase in 2026
Payment of ~ $340 million in tax credits in Q1 and continued capex and capital returns expected to push traditional leverage toward ~2.5x in 2026 (lease-adjusted leverage would be higher, approaching ~3x by estimate).
Temporary Casino at Virginia Expected to be Breakeven
Transitional casino in Norfolk (adjacent to the permanent $750M resort) was expected to run at approximately breakeven levels until the permanent resort opens in late 2027, limiting near-term profit contribution from that market.
Uncertainty Around Destination Recovery
Management has limited visibility on when broader destination business (strip/regional visitation) will recover; continued destination softness is the primary upside risk to margin and growth recovery in Las Vegas and some larger hotel products.
Ongoing Construction and Capital Intensity
Large ongoing projects (Suncoast, Norfolk, Paradise, Cadence) require substantial near-term capital (2026 capex guidance $650–$700M) which, together with planned ongoing repurchases (~$150M per quarter), shapes higher near-term cash requirements and leverage sensitivity.
Company Guidance
Boyd's 2026 guidance highlights segment and balance-sheet targets: online EBITDAR of $30–$35 million and managed & other EBITDAR of $110–$114 million; total 2026 capex of roughly $650–$700 million (including ~$250M recurring maintenance, ~$75M growth for Cadence/Paradise, $250–$300M for the Virginia resort, and ~$75M for hotel renovations); a share-repurchase cadence of about $150M per quarter plus a regular quarterly dividend (>$650M/year, >$8.5/share); a Q1 cash tax credit payment of ~ $340M tied to the FanDuel transaction; and an expected rise in leverage from year-end 2025 total leverage of 1.7x (lease-adjusted 2.2x) to roughly ~2.5x traditional leverage (lease-adjusted just under 3x) after the tax payment and planned investments—with near-term operational milestones including Cadence Crossing opening late March, Suncoast completion in Q3, Ameristar St. Charles benefiting from a full year of expanded meeting space, and Sky River’s floor expansion (adding ~400 slots and a 1,600-space garage) coming online in late February.Boyd Gaming Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year recovery with steady revenue growth through 2024 and strong operating cash flow (~$0.9–$1.0B). Offsetting this, 2025 shows unusually inflated margins versus prior years and weaker cash conversion (FCF ~40% of net income), raising sustainability/earnings-quality risk despite an apparent balance-sheet strengthening.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily from 2022–2024 (~5% per year) with a sharp step-up in 2025 (annual revenue growth of 52%). Profitability improved meaningfully versus 2020 (loss-making) and remained solid in 2021–2024. However, 2025 shows unusually high margins (net margin ~45% and EBITDA margin ~68%) versus prior years (~14–18% net margin and ~31–35% EBITDA margin), suggesting elevated one-time benefits or accounting effects that may not be sustainable.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage was high in 2020–2024 with debt running ~2.1–4.3x equity, though the ratio improved from the 2020 peak. The 2025 statement shows zero debt and materially higher equity, indicating a major deleveraging or reclassification event, which is a clear strength if durable. A watch item is the 2025 return on equity reported at 0.0 despite strong net income, which creates uncertainty around the quality/consistency of the balance sheet metrics for that period.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has been consistently strong from 2021–2025 (~$0.9–$1.0B range), supporting business resilience. Free cash flow was healthy in 2021–2024 but declined in 2025 (down ~6% year over year). Cash conversion weakened in 2025: free cash flow is only ~40% of net income and operating cash flow is roughly in-line with net income, versus stronger conversion in 2021–2024 (free cash flow around ~58–80% of net income).63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.09B | 3.93B | 3.74B | 3.56B | 3.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.72B | 2.05B | 2.02B | 1.99B | 1.94B |
| EBITDA | 2.79B | 1.21B | 1.18B | 1.24B | 1.07B |
| Net Income | 1.84B | 577.95M | 620.02M | 639.38M | 463.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.85B | 6.39B | 6.27B | 6.31B | 6.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 353.41M | 316.69M | 304.27M | 283.47M | 344.56M |
| Total Debt | 3.27B | 3.93B | 3.73B | 3.90B | 3.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.25B | 4.81B | 4.53B | 4.72B | 4.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.61B | 1.58B | 1.74B | 1.59B | 1.54B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 388.46M | 556.67M | 540.57M | 706.96M | 810.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 976.68M | 957.08M | 914.52M | 976.11M | 1.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.04B | -433.91M | -264.33M | -422.31M | -129.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.98B | -509.50M | -637.25M | -615.85M | -1.06B |
Boyd Gaming Technical Analysis
Positive
84.93
Price Trends
85.30
Negative
83.29
Positive
81.93
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
51.89
Neutral
54.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BYD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.96, below the 50-day MA of 85.30, and above the 200-day MA of 81.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BYD.
Boyd Gaming Risk Analysis
Boyd Gaming disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boyd Gaming reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boyd Gaming Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.43B | 3.78 | 87.98% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
70 Outperform | $6.49B | 19.78 | 88.84% | 3.22% | 4.69% | 15.18% | |
62 Neutral | $8.97B | 47.08 | 7.74% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $6.71B | 17.53 | 37.56% | 0.38% | 7.97% | -0.14% | |
53 Neutral | $11.38B | 34.85 | ― | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% | |
50 Neutral | $4.14B | -8.54 | -13.11% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BYD
Boyd Gaming
84.93
9.80
13.04%
CHDN
Churchill Downs
96.14
-20.68
-17.70%
MGM
MGM Resorts
35.56
0.89
2.57%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
107.45
20.06
22.95%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
20.77
-12.48
-37.53%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
61.52
14.54
30.95%
Boyd Gaming Corporate Events
Dividends
Boyd Gaming Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Boyd Gaming Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.20 per share. The dividend will be paid on April 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 16, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing capital return to investors and signaling confidence in its financial position and cash flow.
The most recent analyst rating on (BYD) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boyd Gaming stock, see the BYD Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Boyd Gaming Expands Liquidity With New Credit Facilities
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Boyd Gaming Corporation entered into an amended and restated credit agreement that replaces its March 2, 2022 facility and establishes a $1.45 billion senior secured revolving credit facility and a $1.2 billion senior secured delayed-draw term A loan facility, both maturing five years from the closing date. The new financing, which refinances all obligations under the prior agreement and can also be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, introduces flexible borrowing features, including an accordion option for substantial additional commitments, leverage-based pricing tied to SOFR or a base rate, and covenants on leverage, interest coverage, indebtedness, asset sales, and capital allocation; collectively, these terms enhance Boyd Gaming’s liquidity and financial flexibility while imposing leverage and coverage constraints that are significant for lenders, bondholders and other stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (BYD) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boyd Gaming stock, see the BYD Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Boyd Gaming to Acquire Significant Renewable Energy Tax Credits
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
In December 2025, Boyd Gaming Corporation entered into agreements to purchase up to approximately $465 million of renewable energy investment tax credits generated by developers of various renewable energy and storage projects, aiming to reduce the economic cost of satisfying its 2025 federal income tax obligations. The transactions, which include customary representations, warranties, covenants and indemnification protections if the credits are not effectively transferred or are ruled invalid, underscore the company’s use of tax credit markets and renewable energy incentives to optimize its tax position, with completion contingent on Internal Revenue Service processes being finalized by September 15, 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (BYD) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boyd Gaming stock, see the BYD Stock Forecast page.
Dividends
Boyd Gaming Announces Cash Dividend of $0.18
Neutral
Dec 4, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Boyd Gaming Corporation announced a cash dividend of $0.18 per share. This dividend is scheduled to be paid on January 15, 2026, to shareholders recorded by December 15, 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (BYD) stock is a Hold with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boyd Gaming stock, see the BYD Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.