Churchill Downs (CHDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.15B
• Dividend Yield: 0.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 609.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 8.20%
• EPS Growth: 7.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,480
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 3.10
• Shares Outstanding: 70,124,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 538,681
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 609,047
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.23
• 1Y Price Target: $132.14
• Price Target Upside: 29.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $119.00 ▲(16.74% Upside)

Churchill Downs demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability, supported by robust earnings call insights and strategic acquisitions. While technical indicators suggest potential short-term weakness, the company's strategic initiatives and solid financials position it well for future growth.

Positive Factors

Segment Performance

The Gaming and TwinSpires segments outperformed our estimates, partly offset by slightly lower than expected results in Live and Historical Racing.

Wagering Records

Churchill Downs announced that wagering from all sources was the highest all-time for the Kentucky Derby race, the Kentucky Derby Day program, and Kentucky Derby Week races.

Negative Factors

Attendance Decline

Attendance for the Derby was ~147K, -6% Y/Y, and down -2% vs. 2023.

Capital Project Deferrals

The company announced it is pausing its plans for redevelopment of the Skye and infield projects, which were estimated at $900M through 2028.

EBITDA Expectations

Despite the increase in wagering, CHDN expects Kentucky Derby week EBITDA to be down -$2-4M Y/Y.

Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino gaming in eight states with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. It also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. In addition, the company manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Churchill Downs generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is pari-mutuel wagering from live horse races at its racetracks and through simulcast events. The company also earns significant income from its gaming operations, including revenues from casinos and historical racing machines. Additionally, online wagering through its platforms, such as TwinSpires, contributes to revenue via fees and commissions on bets placed. Strategic partnerships with other gaming entities and technological investments enhance its online presence and customer engagement, further boosting earnings. Seasonal events like the Kentucky Derby also provide substantial revenue through ticket sales, hospitality packages, and merchandise.

Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Churchill Downs presents a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. While leverage is high, return on equity is impressive, reflecting strong operational performance. The company displays excellent cash flow generation, enhancing its ability to invest and reduce debt. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio could pose risks if market conditions deteriorate.

Income Statement

Churchill Downs has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a 5% increase over the TTM. The gross profit margin stands at 33.5%, indicating solid profitability. The net profit margin is healthy at 15.2%, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 25.3% and 34.8% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high at approximately 4.80, reflecting significant leverage. However, return on equity is strong at 41.2%, suggesting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is modest at 14.1%, indicating a lesser portion of equity in total assets which could pose risks in uncertain markets.

Cash Flow

Churchill Downs shows a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.83, reflecting efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is commendable at 1.05, indicating sound conversion of income into cash. Free cash flow has grown significantly, suggesting improved liquidity and investment capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.83B	2.73B	2.46B	1.81B	1.60B	1.05B
Gross Profit	946.90M	938.50M	795.70M	566.40M	446.10M	193.50M
EBITDA	985.60M	1.07B	1.01B	875.10M	536.80M	185.90M
Net Income	429.70M	426.80M	417.30M	439.40M	249.10M	13.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.38B	7.28B	6.96B	6.21B	2.98B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	182.40M	175.50M	144.50M	129.80M	291.30M	67.40M
Total Debt	5.01B	4.92B	4.84B	4.61B	1.97B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	6.31B	6.17B	6.06B	5.66B	2.67B	2.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	1.08B	893.60M	551.50M	306.80M	367.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	451.00M	225.70M	-70.70M	80.00M	243.70M	-92.30M
Operating Cash Flow	786.10M	772.70M	605.80M	536.80M	335.50M	141.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-421.20M	-545.20M	-718.00M	-3.10B	-100.40M	-239.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-310.20M	-196.60M	129.30M	2.42B	-500.00K	76.00M

Churchill Downs Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 101.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 101.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.83, below the 50-day MA of 104.67, and below the 200-day MA of 112.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHDN.

Churchill Downs Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHDN	81 Outperform	$7.15B	17.46	41.20%	0.40%	8.20%	7.02%
BYD	76 Outperform	$6.87B	13.19	36.36%	0.81%	6.40%	26.09%
RRR	72 Outperform	$6.59B	23.77	97.52%	3.23%	7.47%	2.58%
WYNN	68 Neutral	$13.05B	37.01	-51.73%	0.81%	-1.94%	-53.90%
MGM	65 Neutral	$10.59B	21.00	17.34%	―	0.89%	-31.56%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.96B	13.14	-5.29%	3.00%	1.25%	-13.95%
CZR	52 Neutral	$5.36B	―	-4.76%	―	-0.15%	28.05%

Churchill Downs Corporate Events

Churchill Downs Completes Major Acquisition in New Hampshire

On August 27, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated completed the acquisition of 90% of PPE Casino Resorts NH Holdings, LLC in Salem, New Hampshire for $180 million. This acquisition allows CDI to develop a charitable gaming, entertainment, and dining venue, with plans to expand and rebrand the facility, enhancing its market presence in the regional casino industry.

Churchill Downs Approves $500M Share Repurchase Program

On July 23, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced the approval of a new $500 million share repurchase program by its Board of Directors. This program replaces the previous authorization from March 2025 and allows for repurchases at management’s discretion with no set time limit, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value.

Churchill Downs Acquires Majority Stake in Casino Salem

On July 14, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced definitive agreements to acquire 90% of Casino Salem in New Hampshire for $180 million. This acquisition allows CDI to develop a charitable gaming, entertainment, and dining destination featuring historical horse racing machines. Local developers Joe Faro and Sal Lupoli will retain a 10% stake, contributing their expertise to the project. The initial phase of Casino Salem opened on July 9, 2025, and CDI plans to expand the venue further, aiming to draw patrons from the New England market and support local charitable organizations. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval.

Churchill Downs EVP Maureen Adams Announces Retirement

On June 25, 2025, Maureen Adams, Executive Vice President of Gaming Operations at Churchill Downs Incorporated, announced her retirement effective December 31, 2025. The company has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Adams, detailing her retirement benefits, including a bonus, stock vesting, a retention payment, and the termination of a previous agreement, which may impact the company’s executive structure and operations.