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Churchill Downs
(NASDAQ:CHDN)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$101.00
▲(16.76% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating performance and a very positive earnings-call update (record revenue/EBITDA and strong free cash flow). The main offset is balance-sheet risk from elevated leverage, which limits financial flexibility. Technicals are constructive but somewhat extended, while valuation is moderate with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Broad-based operating growth
Record revenue and EBITDA across racing, wagering, gaming, and HRMs indicate broad operating strength rather than reliance on one business. Continued segment growth supports durable earnings momentum and improves resilience across market cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
Leverage remains high despite improvement from prior periods, increasing sensitivity to weaker gaming demand, refinancing conditions, or project overruns. Debt also limits financial flexibility until planned asset sales and cash generation reduce obligations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based operating growth
Record revenue and EBITDA across racing, wagering, gaming, and HRMs indicate broad operating strength rather than reliance on one business. Continued segment growth supports durable earnings momentum and improves resilience across market cycles.
Read all positive factors
Churchill Downs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA By Segment
Shows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Shows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChurchill Downs (CHDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.53B
Dividend Yield0.47%
Average Volume (3M)975.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth5.73%
EPS Growth-0.56%
CountryUS
Employees7,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.85
Shares Outstanding69,700,240
10 Day Avg. Volume673,989
30 Day Avg. Volume975,006
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.29
Price to Book (P/B)7.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.76
P/FCF Ratio26.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$129.80Price Target Upside50.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)6.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.03B
Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) is a leading U.S. entertainment enterprise focused on horse racing, online wagering, and general gaming activities. Its extensive operations are categorized into three main divisions: Live and Historical Racing, ...
How the Company Makes Money
CHDN generates revenue primarily from (1) casino and racino gaming, (2) online wagering and gaming, and (3) racing and related event operations.
1) Casino and racino gaming (in-person)
- Gaming win: The largest driver is typically “gaming revenue...
Churchill Downs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum: record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, robust Derby Week performance (attendance, viewership, social engagement, and wagering), solid segment-level EBITDA growth, strong free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. Management outlined clear strategic priorities, confirmed major development projects are on time and on budget, and proposed sales of non-core regional gaming assets to reduce leverage and focus on core growth pillars (Derby, HRMs, TwinSpires). Key challenges include localized competitive pressure in Virginia, a modest early ETG rollout that needs acceleration, execution risk around selling nine regional properties, and ongoing near-term regulatory and market transitions (e.g., Pennsylvania). Overall, positives materially outweigh the manageable challenges.Positive Updates
Record Second Quarter Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Delivered all-time record net revenue of $980 million and all-time record adjusted EBITDA of $477 million in Q2 2026 — the sixth consecutive record second quarter for both metrics.
Negative Updates
Competitive Pressure and Regional Headwinds in Virginia
Central Virginia properties are facing near-term competitive pressure following the January opening of the Petersburg Casino; Virginia adjusted EBITDA rose only 1% year-over-year and margins remained flat at 46%, requiring targeted marketing and redeployment of machines to stabilize performance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Second Quarter Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Delivered all-time record net revenue of $980 million and all-time record adjusted EBITDA of $477 million in Q2 2026 — the sixth consecutive record second quarter for both metrics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 momentum remains strong, citing Q2 all‑time record net revenue of $980M and adjusted EBITDA of $477M (sixth consecutive record Q2), with Derby Week driving >386,000 guests, >500M social impressions (up 84% vs. 2025), peak Derby viewership >24M (+12% YoY) and Oaks prime‑time avg. audience >2.4M, plus $10M higher broadcast revenue under the NBC deal; Derby Week is expected to add $15–18M of incremental adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and Churchill Downs Racetrack adjusted EBITDA rose $16M in the quarter. Segment trends included Live & Historical Racing adjusted EBITDA +7% YoY, Wagering Services & Solutions adjusted EBITDA +8%+, Gaming adjusted EBITDA +5%, Kentucky HRMs adjusted EBITDA +10% YoY, TwinSpires record wagering/registrations/depositors/active players, and Kentucky HRMs operating ~5,300 machines (Virginia rights to 10 licenses/5,000 machines). Capital and balance‑sheet guidance: H1 free cash flow $474M ($6.70/share), H1 project capex $79M (FY guide $180–220M), H1 maintenance capex $38M (FY guide $90–110M), bank covenant net leverage 3.7x at June 30 (expected 3.6–3.8x year‑end and to decline in 2027 assuming asset sales), $430M remaining buyback authorization, and the company marked its 15th consecutive annual dividend increase.Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 2.93B | 2.73B | 2.46B | 1.81B | 1.60B |
| Gross Profit | 1.58B | 982.60M | 938.50M | 795.70M | 566.40M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.01B | 875.10M | 536.80M |
| Net Income | 409.70M | 379.70M | 426.80M | 417.30M | 439.40M | 249.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.52B | 7.48B | 7.28B | 6.96B | 6.21B | 2.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 196.00M | 288.50M | 175.50M | 144.50M | 129.80M | 291.30M |
| Total Debt | 4.78B | 5.20B | 4.92B | 4.84B | 4.61B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.13B | 6.43B | 6.17B | 6.06B | 5.66B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.34B | 1.01B | 1.08B | 893.60M | 551.50M | 306.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 382.60M | 309.60M | 225.70M | -70.70M | 80.00M | 243.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 794.80M | 769.80M | 772.70M | 605.80M | 536.80M | 335.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -424.50M | -471.50M | -545.20M | -718.00M | -3.10B | -100.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -362.50M | -262.50M | -196.60M | 129.30M | 2.42B | -500.00K |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Positive
86.50
Price Trends
87.20
Positive
88.64
Positive
94.58
Negative
Market Momentum
1.60
Negative
64.59
Neutral
95.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 86.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.16, below the 50-day MA of 87.20, and below the 200-day MA of 94.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHDN.
Churchill Downs Risk Analysis
Churchill Downs disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Churchill Downs reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Churchill Downs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $6.53B | 16.02 | 36.57% | 0.51% | 5.73% | -0.56% | |
72 Outperform | $5.87B | 3.56 | 70.49% | 0.87% | 1.75% | 249.96% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $10.33B | 22.95 | -174.87% | 1.03% | 6.36% | 21.32% | |
61 Neutral | $6.42B | 15.66 | 91.10% | 3.18% | 0.86% | -3.37% | |
58 Neutral | $11.00B | 26.19 | 16.96% | ― | 3.19% | -8.14% | |
55 Neutral | $6.06B | -13.05 | -12.62% | ― | 2.41% | -146.70% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CHDN
Churchill Downs
93.71
-9.12
-8.87%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
80.78
-4.70
-5.50%
MGM
MGM Resorts
43.74
5.62
14.74%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
100.28
-16.98
-14.48%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
29.76
3.01
11.25%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
61.09
1.13
1.88%
Churchill Downs Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Churchill Downs Explores Strategic Sale of Gaming Assets
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
Churchill Downs Incorporated has undertaken a comprehensive review of its operations and long-term capital allocation priorities, focusing on its regional gaming portfolio across multiple U.S. jurisdictions. As part of this process, the company is...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.