Churchill Downs (CHDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.16B
• Dividend Yield: 0.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 602.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 8.20%
• EPS Growth: 7.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,480
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 3.10
• Shares Outstanding: 70,124,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 477,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 602,226
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.23
• 1Y Price Target: $130.75
• Price Target Upside: 26.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $121.00 ▲(16.83% Upside)

Churchill Downs demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, driven by record-setting revenue and strategic growth plans. The recent acquisition further supports growth prospects. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio poses a potential risk, and current valuation metrics suggest limited upside.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA above both internal estimates and the Street's expectations, indicating strong financial performance.

Share Repurchase Program

A new $500M share repurchase program was approved, replacing the existing program, signaling confidence in the company's stock value.

Wagering Performance

Wagering from all sources reached an all-time high for the Kentucky Derby race, setting new records with a handle of $234M, up 11% year over year.

Negative Factors

Competition

Weakness at Rivers Casino, likely due to increased competition, has put pressure on margins and impacted overall performance.

Operational Costs

Salaries and benefit costs were elevated, largely attributed to the development of The Rose, impacting overall operational expenses.

Project Delays

The company has paused plans for redevelopment of the Skye and infield projects, which were estimated at $900M through 2028, potentially affecting long-term growth.

Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino gaming in eight states with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. It also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. In addition, the company manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Churchill Downs generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is pari-mutuel wagering from live horse races at its racetracks and through simulcast events. The company also earns significant income from its gaming operations, including revenues from casinos and historical racing machines. Additionally, online wagering through its platforms, such as TwinSpires, contributes to revenue via fees and commissions on bets placed. Strategic partnerships with other gaming entities and technological investments enhance its online presence and customer engagement, further boosting earnings. Seasonal events like the Kentucky Derby also provide substantial revenue through ticket sales, hospitality packages, and merchandise.

Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Churchill Downs displays strong financial performance with steady revenue growth and robust profit margins. Despite high leverage, efficient cash flow management and equity utilization position the company well within the industry.

Income Statement

Churchill Downs shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and healthy profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) Gross Profit Margin is approximately 50.1%, and the Net Profit Margin stands at 15.1%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 25.8% and 33.9%, respectively. Revenue has grown steadily over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 4.55 and a Return on Equity of 39.4%, indicating efficient use of equity but potential risk due to high debt levels. The Equity Ratio stands at 14.6%, showing a relatively low proportion of assets financed by shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Churchill Downs demonstrates strong cash flow management with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 64.6% over the TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.81, and the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.88, highlighting effective cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.73B	2.46B	1.81B	1.60B	1.05B
Gross Profit	938.50M	795.70M	566.40M	446.10M	193.50M
EBITDA	1.07B	1.01B	875.10M	536.80M	185.90M
Net Income	426.80M	417.30M	439.40M	249.10M	13.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.28B	6.96B	6.21B	2.98B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	175.50M	144.50M	129.80M	291.30M	67.40M
Total Debt	4.92B	4.84B	4.61B	1.97B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	6.17B	6.06B	5.66B	2.67B	2.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.08B	893.60M	551.50M	306.80M	367.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	225.70M	-70.70M	80.00M	243.70M	-92.30M
Operating Cash Flow	772.70M	605.80M	536.80M	335.50M	141.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-545.20M	-718.00M	-3.10B	-100.40M	-239.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-196.60M	129.30M	2.42B	-500.00K	76.00M

Churchill Downs Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 103.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 103.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.34, above the 50-day MA of 103.20, and below the 200-day MA of 115.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CHDN.

Churchill Downs Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BYD	80 Outperform	$6.69B	12.85	36.36%	0.83%	6.40%	26.09%
CHDN	78 Outperform	$7.16B	17.56	41.20%	0.39%	8.20%	7.02%
WYNN	66 Neutral	$11.70B	33.18	-51.73%	0.89%	-1.94%	-53.90%
Sector *	63 Neutral	£1.73B	10.39	4.37%	3.49%	0.66%	-39.52%
MGM	63 Neutral	$9.64B	20.08	17.34%	―	0.89%	-31.56%
PENN	57 Neutral	$2.50B	―	-2.50%	―	7.34%	93.83%
CZR	50 Neutral	$5.12B	―	-4.76%	―	-0.15%	28.05%

Churchill Downs Corporate Events

Churchill Downs Approves $500M Share Repurchase Program

On July 23, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced the approval of a new $500 million share repurchase program by its Board of Directors. This program replaces the previous authorization from March 2025 and allows for repurchases at management’s discretion with no set time limit, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHDN) stock is a Buy with a $167.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Churchill Downs stock, see the CHDN Stock Forecast page.

Churchill Downs Acquires Majority Stake in Casino Salem

On July 14, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced definitive agreements to acquire 90% of Casino Salem in New Hampshire for $180 million. This acquisition allows CDI to develop a charitable gaming, entertainment, and dining destination featuring historical horse racing machines. Local developers Joe Faro and Sal Lupoli will retain a 10% stake, contributing their expertise to the project. The initial phase of Casino Salem opened on July 9, 2025, and CDI plans to expand the venue further, aiming to draw patrons from the New England market and support local charitable organizations. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHDN) stock is a Buy with a $167.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Churchill Downs stock, see the CHDN Stock Forecast page.

Churchill Downs EVP Maureen Adams Announces Retirement

On June 25, 2025, Maureen Adams, Executive Vice President of Gaming Operations at Churchill Downs Incorporated, announced her retirement effective December 31, 2025. The company has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Adams, detailing her retirement benefits, including a bonus, stock vesting, a retention payment, and the termination of a previous agreement, which may impact the company’s executive structure and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHDN) stock is a Buy with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Churchill Downs stock, see the CHDN Stock Forecast page.