Churchill Downs (CHDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.29B
• Dividend Yield: 0.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 742.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 11.75%
• EPS Growth: 24.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,480
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 72,232,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 639,118
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 742,848
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 14.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 100.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.18
• 1Y Price Target: $130.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $111.00 ▲(9.96%Upside)

The overall score is driven by strong financial performance and effective cash flow management. The technical analysis and valuation are moderate, while corporate events reflect both achievements and challenges. Debt levels and economic uncertainties pose potential risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue and EBITDA Performance

The company reported revenue and Adj. EBITDA above both internal estimates and the Street's expectations.

Share Repurchase Program

The company approved a new $500M share repurchase program, replacing the existing program, which is viewed as a positive signal for when management is able to buy shares.

Wagering Records

Churchill Downs announced that wagering from all sources was the highest all-time for the Kentucky Derby race, the Kentucky Derby Day program, and Kentucky Derby Week races.

Negative Factors

Gaming Business Softness

Management noted indications of softness in its land-based gaming businesses, notably where unrated play and consumer softness are evident.

Kentucky Derby Week EBITDA

Despite the increase in wagering, CHDN expects Kentucky Derby week EBITDA to be down -$2-4M Y/Y.

Project Deferrals

The company announced it is pausing its plans for redevelopment of the Skye and infield projects, which were estimated at $900M through 2028.

Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino gaming in eight states with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. It also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. In addition, the company manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Churchill Downs Incorporated generates revenue through several key streams. The company's primary revenue sources include admissions, pari-mutuel wagering, and gaming operations. The flagship event, the Kentucky Derby, significantly contributes to its admissions and wagering earnings due to its popularity and high attendance. The company also earns money through its TwinSpires platform, which facilitates online wagering for horse racing and other sporting events. Furthermore, Churchill Downs operates several casinos and racetracks across the United States, which contribute gaming and pari-mutuel revenues. Partnerships with media companies and sponsorships during major racing events also enhance its revenue potential. The diverse portfolio of entertainment and wagering options allows Churchill Downs Incorporated to capitalize on multiple aspects of the racing and gaming industry.

Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Churchill Downs shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth, strong cash flow management, and efficient equity utilization despite high leverage. However, the high debt levels pose a potential risk.

Income Statement

Churchill Downs shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and healthy profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) Gross Profit Margin is approximately 50.1%, and the Net Profit Margin stands at 15.1%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 25.8% and 33.9%, respectively. Revenue has grown steadily over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 4.55 and a Return on Equity of 39.4%, indicating efficient use of equity but potential risk due to high debt levels. The Equity Ratio stands at 14.6%, showing a relatively low proportion of assets financed by shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Churchill Downs demonstrates strong cash flow management with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 64.6% over the TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.81, and the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.88, highlighting effective cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.79B	2.73B	2.46B	1.81B	1.60B	1.05B
Gross Profit	942.80M	938.50M	795.70M	566.40M	446.10M	193.50M
EBITDA	1.04B	1.07B	1.01B	875.10M	536.80M	185.90M
Net Income	422.10M	426.80M	417.30M	439.40M	249.10M	13.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.35B	7.41B	6.96B	6.21B	2.98B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	174.20M	175.50M	144.50M	129.80M	291.30M	67.40M
Total Debt	4.89B	4.92B	4.84B	4.61B	1.97B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	6.25B	6.17B	6.06B	5.66B	2.67B	2.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.07B	1.08B	893.60M	551.50M	306.80M	367.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.40M	225.70M	-70.70M	80.00M	243.70M	-92.30M
Operating Cash Flow	763.50M	772.70M	605.80M	536.80M	335.50M	141.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-471.90M	-545.20M	-718.00M	-3.10B	-100.40M	-239.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-243.40M	-196.60M	129.30M	2.42B	-500.00K	76.00M

Churchill Downs Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 100.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.16, above the 50-day MA of 96.42, and below the 200-day MA of 120.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHDN.

Churchill Downs Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BYD	78 Outperform	$6.43B	12.91	35.62%	0.91%	6.06%	10.05%
CHDN	75 Outperform	$7.29B	17.97	44.13%	0.41%	11.75%	24.31%
MGM	71 Outperform	$9.35B	15.40	21.38%	―	2.76%	-14.31%
WYNN	63 Neutral	$9.90B	25.84	-51.73%	1.06%	-0.08%	-48.66%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.72B	10.85	-7.48%	3.11%	1.66%	-24.52%
PENN	61 Neutral	$2.75B	―	-2.81%	―	5.51%	92.46%
CZR	60 Neutral	$6.00B	―	-5.56%	―	-1.25%	-130.83%

Churchill Downs Corporate Events

Churchill Downs EVP Maureen Adams Announces Retirement

On June 25, 2025, Maureen Adams, Executive Vice President of Gaming Operations at Churchill Downs Incorporated, announced her retirement effective December 31, 2025. The company has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Adams, detailing her retirement benefits, including a bonus, stock vesting, a retention payment, and the termination of a previous agreement, which may impact the company’s executive structure and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHDN) stock is a Buy with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Churchill Downs stock, see the CHDN Stock Forecast page.

Churchill Downs Shareholders Approve Key 2025 Decisions

On April 22, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key decisions were made. Shareholders approved the 2025 Omnibus Stock and Incentive Plan, elected two Class II Directors, ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis. These decisions reflect the company’s strategic focus on aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests and ensuring robust financial oversight.