Churchill Downs (CHDN)
NASDAQ:CHDN
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Churchill Downs
(NASDAQ:CHDN)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$100.00
▲(12.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (high leverage/negative equity signal) and weak technical trend (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors are strong multi-year profitability and cash generation, plus an upbeat earnings call with concrete 2026 guidance and continued shareholder returns; valuation appears reasonable but not especially supportive via yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Track Record
Consistent multi-year revenue and EBITDA expansion signals durable demand across racing, casinos, and wagering. Sustained margins give management flexibility to reinvest in growth, fund capex projects like Rockingham, and support shareholder returns, strengthening competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
High Leverage & Thin Equity
Elevated leverage and a thin or negative equity cushion materially increase financial risk in a cyclical leisure business. High debt raises interest costs, limits flexibility for downturns or opportunistic investments, and heightens covenant and refinancing sensitivity despite plans to reduce leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Track Record
Consistent multi-year revenue and EBITDA expansion signals durable demand across racing, casinos, and wagering. Sustained margins give management flexibility to reinvest in growth, fund capex projects like Rockingham, and support shareholder returns, strengthening competitive positioning.
Read all positive factors
Churchill Downs (CHDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.21B
Dividend Yield0.38%
Average Volume (3M)1.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.2
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth7.97%
EPS Growth-0.14%
CountryUS
Employees6,480
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.97
Shares Outstanding69,696,370
10 Day Avg. Volume961,978
30 Day Avg. Volume1,114,417
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.29
Price to Book (P/B)7.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.76
P/FCF Ratio16.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$135.40Price Target Upside52.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)6.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.03B
Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company...
How the Company Makes Money
Churchill Downs generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its racetrack operations, online wagering, and casino gaming. Revenue from live racing events, including ticket sales, concessions, and sponsorships, is significant, especi...
Churchill Downs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA By Segment
Shows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Shows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChurchill Downs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes multiple strong positives: record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, robust free cash flow ($700M), successful HRM expansion and technology (Exacta) driving a 7% adjusted EBITDA increase in Wagering Services, significant capital returns to shareholders, and confident forward guidance around the Kentucky Derby (projected $15–$20M incremental adjusted EBITDA) and continued project execution. Offsetting items are largely transitory or execution-timing related: modest margin pressure (-0.8 points) in regional gaming, early-stage ETG rollout, weather and local disruptions, tariff-related sales-cycle volatility earlier in the year, and routine legislative/regulatory uncertainty. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights and the tone is optimistic regarding 2026 growth and deleveraging.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Company reported record net revenue and record adjusted EBITDA for 2025 (also record Q4 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA), marking nine consecutive years of record revenue and adjusted EBITDA excluding 2020.
Negative Updates
Earnings Slightly Below Prior Year Record
While 2025 produced record revenue and adjusted EBITDA overall, the company noted being just below the prior year's record earnings level, citing challenging comparisons and economic uncertainty earlier in the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Company reported record net revenue and record adjusted EBITDA for 2025 (also record Q4 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA), marking nine consecutive years of record revenue and adjusted EBITDA excluding 2020.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to several concrete 2026 metrics: the Kentucky Derby is expected to drive $15 million–$20 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA, Derby Week will expand to 7 live race dates across 8 calendar days with week attendance ~75,000 and the Derby pacing ahead of prior years, and Rockingham Grand Casino investment is expected to be $180 million–$200 million (project capex outlook for 2026 overall $180 million–$220 million). Maintenance capital is forecast at $90 million–$110 million (vs. $70 million in 2025), bank covenant net leverage was 4.1x at 12/31/25 and is expected to decline below 4.0x during 2026, and the company reiterated strong cash generation after delivering record free cash flow of $700 million ($9.75 per share) in 2025; other 2025 metrics cited for context include record net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, project capex of $205 million, >4.2 million shares repurchased and >$456 million returned to shareholders, Wagering Services adjusted EBITDA up 7%, and same-store regional casino margins down ~0.8 points.Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.93B | 2.73B | 2.46B | 1.81B | 1.60B |
| Gross Profit | 982.60M | 938.50M | 795.70M | 566.40M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.01B | 875.10M | 536.80M |
| Net Income | 379.70M | 426.80M | 417.30M | 439.40M | 249.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.48B | 7.28B | 6.96B | 6.21B | 2.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 288.50M | 175.50M | 144.50M | 129.80M | 291.30M |
| Total Debt | 5.20B | 4.92B | 4.84B | 4.61B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.43B | 6.17B | 6.06B | 5.66B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.01B | 1.08B | 893.60M | 551.50M | 306.80M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 494.90M | 225.70M | -70.70M | 80.00M | 243.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 769.80M | 772.70M | 605.80M | 536.80M | 335.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -471.50M | -545.20M | -718.00M | -3.10B | -100.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -262.50M | -196.60M | 129.30M | 2.42B | -500.00K |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Neutral
89.07
Price Trends
91.28
Negative
100.27
Negative
100.22
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.98
Negative
51.26
Neutral
83.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 89.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.12, below the 50-day MA of 91.28, and below the 200-day MA of 100.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CHDN.
Churchill Downs Risk Analysis
Churchill Downs disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Churchill Downs reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Churchill Downs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.32B | 3.78 | 91.87% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
70 Outperform | $5.78B | 19.42 | 85.64% | 3.22% | 4.69% | 15.18% | |
62 Neutral | $9.38B | 46.86 | 7.55% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $6.21B | 21.23 | 36.68% | 0.38% | 7.97% | -0.14% | |
57 Neutral | $5.40B | -9.69 | -13.18% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% | |
54 Neutral | $10.64B | 38.12 | -90.44% | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CHDN
Churchill Downs
89.07
-10.20
-10.28%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
83.74
23.06
38.00%
MGM
MGM Resorts
36.68
10.38
39.47%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
102.03
34.72
51.57%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
26.53
2.78
11.71%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
55.04
18.61
51.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.