Churchill Downs (CHDN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.73B
• Dividend Yield: 0.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 762.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 7.97%
• EPS Growth: -0.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,480
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 69,728,745
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 773,914
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 762,217
• PEG Ratio: 7.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.03
• 1Y Price Target: $128.71
• Price Target Upside: 32.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.91B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $113.00 ▲(15.98% Upside)

Churchill Downs' strong earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust financial performance and positive technical indicators further support the stock's outlook. However, high leverage and competition challenges slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Record-breaking revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health and expansion potential.

Expansion Initiatives

Strategic expansion projects enhance capacity and market presence, potentially increasing revenue streams and strengthening competitive positioning.

Cash Flow Improvement

Improved cash flow from tax changes enhances financial flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and shareholder returns, bolstering long-term stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can pose financial risks, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Cost Pressures

Cost pressures affecting margins could impact profitability, necessitating efficiency improvements to maintain competitive advantage.

Increased Competition

Rising competition may pressure market share and profitability, requiring strategic responses to maintain leadership in key markets.

Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino gaming in eight states with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. It also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. In addition, the company manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Churchill Downs generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is pari-mutuel wagering from live horse races at its racetracks and through simulcast events. The company also earns significant income from its gaming operations, including revenues from casinos and historical racing machines. Additionally, online wagering through its platforms, such as TwinSpires, contributes to revenue via fees and commissions on bets placed. Strategic partnerships with other gaming entities and technological investments enhance its online presence and customer engagement, further boosting earnings. Seasonal events like the Kentucky Derby also provide substantial revenue through ticket sales, hospitality packages, and merchandise.

Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Churchill Downs shows strong revenue growth and profitability with stable margins and efficient equity utilization. However, high leverage poses a potential risk, and there are signs of cost pressures affecting margins. The company demonstrates strong cash flow generation, although there are some constraints in free cash flow relative to net income.

Income Statement

Churchill Downs has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.93% and strong historical growth. The gross profit margin is stable at around 33-34%, and the net profit margin is healthy at approximately 14%. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to previous years, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.93, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is strong at 38.11%, suggesting efficient use of equity. The equity ratio is relatively low, reflecting the high leverage.

Cash Flow

Churchill Downs shows a robust free cash flow growth rate of 49.67% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, reflecting good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly below 1, suggesting some cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.88B	2.73B	2.46B	1.81B	1.60B	1.05B
Gross Profit	965.60M	938.50M	795.70M	566.40M	446.10M	193.50M
EBITDA	1.07B	1.07B	1.01B	875.10M	536.80M	185.90M
Net Income	403.20M	426.80M	417.30M	439.40M	249.10M	13.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.45B	7.28B	6.96B	6.21B	2.98B	2.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	180.50M	175.50M	144.50M	129.80M	291.30M	67.40M
Total Debt	5.11B	4.92B	4.84B	4.61B	1.97B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	6.38B	6.17B	6.06B	5.66B	2.67B	2.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.03B	1.08B	893.60M	551.50M	306.80M	367.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	675.00M	225.70M	-70.70M	80.00M	243.70M	-92.30M
Operating Cash Flow	804.40M	772.70M	605.80M	536.80M	335.50M	141.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-550.80M	-545.20M	-718.00M	-3.10B	-100.40M	-239.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-216.50M	-196.60M	129.30M	2.42B	-500.00K	76.00M

Churchill Downs Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 97.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 96.37, above the 50-day MA of 96.69, and below the 200-day MA of 103.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHDN.

Churchill Downs Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHDN	73 Outperform	$6.73B	17.60	37.56%	0.39%	7.97%	-0.14%
BYD	71 Outperform	$6.27B	3.51	87.17%	0.89%	5.91%	336.91%
RRR	71 Outperform	$5.82B	19.56	96.16%	3.42%	4.69%	15.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WYNN	61 Neutral	$13.02B	36.93	―	0.82%	-0.26%	-44.45%
MGM	59 Neutral	$8.75B	199.12	2.25%	―	0.05%	-94.07%
CZR	44 Neutral	$4.07B	―	-6.06%	―	0.87%	31.28%

Churchill Downs Corporate Events

Churchill Downs Reports Strong Revenue Growth in Q3 2025

Churchill Downs Incorporated, a prominent player in the entertainment industry, is renowned for its iconic Kentucky Derby and operates in the live and historical racing, online wagering, and regional casino gaming sectors.

Churchill Downs’ Earnings Call: Record Growth and Strategic Expansion

Churchill Downs’ recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health and strategic foresight, underscoring a record-breaking performance amidst challenges. The company showcased its ability to navigate increased competition and regulatory hurdles while focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing shareholder value.

Churchill Downs Completes Major Acquisition in New Hampshire

On August 27, 2025, Churchill Downs Incorporated completed the acquisition of 90% of PPE Casino Resorts NH Holdings, LLC in Salem, New Hampshire for $180 million. This acquisition allows CDI to develop a charitable gaming, entertainment, and dining venue, with plans to expand and rebrand the facility, enhancing its market presence in the regional casino industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHDN) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Churchill Downs stock, see the CHDN Stock Forecast page.