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Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
NASDAQ:WYNN
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Wynn Resorts
(NASDAQ:WYNN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$107.00
▲(3.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven by improved operating performance and strong recent free cash flow, supported by positive earnings-call guidance on liquidity and property momentum. These positives are tempered by a debt-heavy, negative-equity balance sheet and weakening technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), with valuation also on the expensive side for the current margin profile.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Wynn's transition to sustained positive free cash flow (notably the large jump in 2025) provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. Strong FCF reduces near-term refinancing risk and enables strategic investment, improving resilience across the business cycle.
High‑value Macau Demand
Robust Macau volumes and healthy adjusted property EBITDA demonstrate durable demand recovery in the world's largest gaming market. High-margin VIP and mass growth supports long-term profitability and cash generation, reinforcing Wynn's premium positioning in Greater Bay Area gaming.
Project Progress & Geographic Diversification
Material construction progress on Al Marjan and strategic expansion into non‑USD markets signal long-term revenue diversification. Successful execution reduces project risk and creates a multi‑regional revenue base, which can smooth US cyclical exposure and drive future free‑cash‑flow inflection.
Negative Factors
High Leverage & Negative Equity
A debt‑heavy capital structure with negative equity materially limits financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to demand shocks, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and constrains the company's ability to absorb cyclical downturns without curtailing investment or shareholder returns.
Margin Compression & Cash‑conversion Pressure
Declining margins and noted cash‑conversion weakness (operating cash flow below net operating profit in 2025) suggest structural cost and working‑capital pressure. Sustained margin erosion reduces operating leverage benefits, limiting ability to grow EBITDA while servicing heavy fixed costs and debt.
Large Near‑term Development Funding Needs
Ongoing development projects require substantial incremental equity and construction financing. With significant remaining funding needs, management faces execution and financing risk that could dilute liquidity or increase leverage, especially given sizeable recent equity contributions and existing debt load.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.67B
Dividend Yield0.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.1
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth-0.26%
EPS Growth-44.45%
CountryUS
Employees28,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding104,283,295
10 Day Avg. Volume1,873,046
30 Day Avg. Volume1,643,971
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.24
Price to Book (P/B)-45.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio18.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$144.29Price Target Upside39.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)5.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.45B
Wynn Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionWynn Resorts, Limited designs, develops, and operates integrated resorts. Its Wynn Palace segment operates 424,000 square feet of casino space with 323 table games, 1,035 slot machines, private gaming salons, and sky casinos; a luxury hotel tower with 1,706 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including a health club, spa, salon, and pool; 14 food and beverage outlets; 107,000 square feet of retail space; 37,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and performance lake and floral art displays. Its Wynn Macau segment operates 252,000 square feet of casino space with 331 table games, 818 slot machines, private gaming salons, sky casinos, and a poker room; two luxury hotel towers with 1,010 guest rooms and suites that include two health clubs, two spas, a salon, and a pool; 14 food and beverage outlets; 59,000 square feet of retail space; 31,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling attractions. Its Las Vegas Operations segment operates 194,000 square feet of casino space with 223 table games, 1,751 slot machines, private gaming salons, a sky casino, a poker room, and a race and sports book; two luxury hotel towers with 4,748 guest rooms, suites, and villas, including swimming pools, private cabanas, two full service spas and salons, and a wedding chapel; 32 food and beverage outlets; 513,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; 155,000 square feet of retail space; and two theaters, three nightclubs and a beach club. Its Encore Boston Harbor segment operates 211,000 square feet of casino space with 184 table games, 2,766 slot machines, gaming areas, and a poker room; a luxury hotel tower with 671 guest rooms and suites, including a spa and salon; 15 food and beverage outlets and a nightclub; 10,000 square feet of retail space; 71,000 square feet of meeting and convention space; and a waterfront park, floral displays, and water shuttle service. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyWynn Resorts generates revenue primarily through its gaming operations, hotel accommodations, and various entertainment and dining offerings. The company's casino segment is a significant revenue driver, where it earns money from table games and slot machines. Hotel accommodations contribute through room bookings, with luxury pricing reflecting the premium nature of its properties. Additionally, Wynn Resorts benefits from high-end restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues, which attract guests and locals alike. The company also engages in retail operations within its resorts, enhancing the overall guest experience and driving additional sales. Significant partnerships with renowned chefs and entertainment acts further amplify its offerings, while the company's strategic focus on the Asian gaming market, particularly in Macau, plays a crucial role in its revenue generation.
Wynn Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Property
Shows the income generated by each property after operating expenses, indicating the profitability and financial health of Wynn's individual locations.
Shows the income generated by each property after operating expenses, indicating the profitability and financial health of Wynn's individual locations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWynn Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial picture: strong adjusted EBITDA across core assets (Wynn Las Vegas, Macau, Boston), significant volume growth in Macau (VIP turnover +48%, mass drop +18%), healthy liquidity ($4.7B) and continued capital returns (quarterly dividend). The company is advancing major development projects (Wynn Al Marjan topped out; Chairman's Club expansion opened) and expects meaningful geographic diversification. Primary negatives were volatility from unusually low hold (costing roughly $16M in Macau EBITDA and ~250 bps lower mass hold), rising operating expenses (Vegas OpEx per day +4.1% YoY), and a temporary room-night headwind from the Encore Tower remodel (~80,000 room nights removed in 2026). Overall, the positives (strong volumes, liquidity, project progress, and shareholder returns) outweigh the transitory weaknesses driven largely by hold variability and scheduled capital projects.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Wynn Las Vegas Performance
Adjusted property EBITDA of $240,800,000 on operating revenue of $688,100,000 in Q4 2025; EBITDA margin 35%. Gaming drop, handle, and ADR were up year-over-year; RevPAR modestly below prior year but overall performance reflects revenue optimization (higher ADR with slightly lower occupancy). Hold positively impacted EBITDA by just over $8,000,000 in the quarter.
Robust Macau Volumes and EBITDA
Macau delivered adjusted property EBITDA of $270,900,000 on $967,700,000 of operating revenue (28% EBITDA margin) in Q4. VIP turnover increased 48% year-over-year and mass drop rose 18% year-over-year. Momentum continued into Q1 with January volumes slightly above Q4 levels.
Strong Boston Results and Operational Discipline
Encore Boston generated $57,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA on $210,200,000 of revenue (27.1% EBITDA margin). Slot revenues were up over 2%, setting a new record. OpEx per day in Boston rose less than 1% versus Q4 2024, demonstrating tight cost control amid labor pressures.
Solid Liquidity and Balance Sheet
Global cash and revolver availability of $4.7 billion as of December 31, comprised of $2.9 billion in Macau and $1.8 billion in the U.S. Consolidated net leverage approximately just over 4.4x, supported by strong free cash flow and adjusted property EBITDA across the portfolio exceeding $2.2 billion.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Return
Board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share payable 03/04/2026, highlighting commitment to returning capital. Q4 CapEx was $171.2 million and the company contributed $79.2 million of equity to the Buenos Aires Island project in the quarter.
Progress on Wynn Al Marjan and Global Diversification
Wynn Al Marjan tower topped out at the 70th floor; exterior glass ~80% complete and interior fit-out underway. Construction loan drawn to date $769.6 million; total equity contributed to Buenos Aires Island project to date $914.2 million. Company expects >55% of revenues from non-U.S. dollar markets over time, positioning for geographic diversification.
Chairman's Club Expansion at Wynn Palace
Expansion of the Chairman's Club triples the space to nearly 100,000 sq ft (previously referenced as a 63,000 sq ft addition) dedicated to highest-value customers, including gaming and bespoke amenities; received final government approval and opened by Chinese New Year, expected to enhance premium capture in Macau.
Guidance and CapEx Outlook for 2026
Full-year 2026 CapEx expected to be $400–$450 million, reflecting ongoing projects (Chairman's Club, Wynn Tower refresh) and concession-related projects subject to approvals. Management reiterated OpEx guidance ranges: Wynn Las Vegas $4.3M–$4.5M per day outside major events; Macau OpEx per day $2.7M–$2.9M.
Negative Updates
Unusually Low Hold Impacting Earnings
Q4 experienced unusually low VIP and mass hold in Macau; low VIP hold cost the company just over $16,000,000 of EBITDA in the quarter. Mass hold was approximately 250 basis points lower than the prior-year quarter, negatively affecting the overall EBITDA margin.
Comparability Skew from Prior-Year High Hold
Comparisons to Q4 2024 are skewed by higher-than-normal prior-year hold (Las Vegas prior-year quarter benefited from nearly 31% hold), making year-over-year comparability uneven and masking underlying performance trends.
Rising Operating Expenses
Wynn Las Vegas OpEx excluding gaming tax was $4.6M per day in Q4, up 4.1% versus prior year (impacted by payroll, higher repair costs, and bad debt). Macau OpEx per day increased to ~$2.85M driven by a full quarter of Gourmet Pavilion costs, cost-of-living increases, and variable costs from higher volumes.
Encore Tower Remodel Headwind
Encore Tower remodel begins mid-May 2026 and will remove approximately 80,000 room nights in 2026 (six floors staged over a 12-month process that extends into 2027). Management expects to recapture some impact through higher rates but acknowledged this will be a slight headwind to room availability and operations.
Ongoing Capital Needs for Development Projects
Significant remaining equity needs: estimated remaining share of required equity for Marjan and related projects is approximately $450–$550 million. The company continues to draw on construction loans (Marjan drawn amount $769.6M) and has contributed substantial equity year-to-date ($914.2M to Buenos Aires Island), reflecting sizable near-term cash requirements.
Short Booking Windows and Competitive Environment in Macau
Management emphasized the very short booking window and competitive reinvestment dynamics in Macau, requiring day-by-day reinvestment modulation. While not declaring a market-wide promotional war, competition and short booking windows add volatility and require active reinvestment management.
Company Guidance
The call’s forward-looking guidance highlighted full‑year 2026 CapEx of $400–$450 million (Q4 CapEx $171.2M), with total equity to Buenos Aires Island of $914.2M to date plus a $79.2M Q4 contribution, Marjan construction loan drawn $769.6M and remaining equity needed of roughly $450–$550M, and global liquidity of $4.7B (comprised of $2.9B in Macau and $1.8B in the U.S.) supporting a consolidated net leverage of just over 4.4x; the Board approved a $0.25 per‑share quarterly dividend payable 03/04/2026 (record 2/23). Operating guidance included Wynn Las Vegas OpEx ex‑gaming tax targeted at $4.3–$4.5M per day outside major events (Q4 was $4.6M) and Macau OpEx ex‑gaming tax of $2.7–$2.9M per day. Key operational expectations: Encore Tower remodel begins in Q2 and will remove ~80,000 room nights in 2026 (12‑month program extending into 2027, with some recapture via higher rates), rooms for Wynn Al Marjan likely to go on sale late Q3/early Q4, the expanded Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace (nearly 100,000 sq ft, tripled in size) opened for Chinese New Year, and group/convention pace is on track to grow both room nights and rate versus 2025; Q4 operating context included Wynn Las Vegas adjusted property EBITDA ~$240.8–241M on $688.1M revenue (35% margin; hold benefit ≈$8M), Encore Boston adjusted EBITDA $57M on $210.2M revenue (27.1% margin), Macau adjusted property EBITDA $270.9M on $967.7M revenue (28% margin; low VIP hold cost ≈$16M; VIP turnover +48% YoY; mass drop +18% YoY), and the company expects to trend toward >55% of revenues from non‑USD markets with Wynn Al Marjan driving a free‑cash‑flow inflection.Wynn Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong post-pandemic revenue recovery (to ~$7.1B) with sustained profitability and positive free cash flow in 2023–2025 (FCF ~$1.35B in 2025). The main constraint is balance-sheet risk: high debt (~$12.2B) and persistently negative shareholders’ equity (about -$1.0B in 2025), plus some recent margin compression and cash-conversion pressure.Income Statement
Revenue has recovered strongly from the pandemic trough, rising from ~$2.1B (2020) to ~$7.1B (2024–2025), including very strong growth in 2023 and solid growth in 2024–2025. Profitability has also improved materially versus 2020–2022, with positive operating profit and net income in 2023–2025. That said, margins have been volatile: net margin fell from ~11.2% (2023) to ~7.0% (2024) to ~4.6% (2025), and gross margin also compressed in 2025, signaling softer incremental profitability despite stable revenue.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains a key risk. Total debt is high and roughly stable at ~$12.2B (2024–2025), while shareholders’ equity is negative across all periods shown (including about -$1.0B in 2025). Negative equity weakens balance-sheet flexibility and makes equity-based leverage and return measures less meaningful on a traditional basis; it also increases sensitivity to downturns in a cyclical, travel-and-gaming demand environment. Assets are sizable (~$13.1B in 2025), but the capital structure is still debt-heavy.34
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation has improved significantly versus 2020–2022, with operating cash flow turning solidly positive in 2023–2025 and free cash flow positive in 2023–2025. Free cash flow was ~$1.0B in 2024 and ~$1.35B in 2025, showing strong momentum (notably the large jump in 2025). However, cash-flow performance has been uneven historically (deeply negative in 2020–2022), and in 2025 operating cash flow was less than net operating profit (coverage below 1), which suggests some working-capital or cash-conversion pressure despite positive earnings.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.14B | 7.13B | 6.53B | 3.76B | 3.76B |
| Gross Profit | 2.34B | 3.10B | 2.82B | 1.37B | 1.21B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 1.99B | 1.72B | 643.17M | 310.01M |
| Net Income | 327.33M | 501.08M | 729.99M | -423.86M | -755.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.11B | 12.98B | 14.00B | 13.42B | 12.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.46B | 2.43B | 3.72B | 3.65B | 2.52B |
| Total Debt | 12.29B | 12.17B | 13.37B | 13.73B | 12.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.14B | 13.95B | 15.10B | 15.06B | 13.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | -275.49M | -224.16M | -251.38M | -750.84M | -214.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 692.22M | 1.00B | 740.70M | -423.78M | -569.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.35B | 1.43B | 1.25B | -71.27M | -222.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.66B | -83.56M | -1.34B | 1.35B | -342.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -653.30M | -1.79B | -719.21M | -23.68M | -388.00M |
Wynn Resorts Technical Analysis
Negative
103.33
Price Trends
114.71
Negative
118.82
Negative
113.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.88
Positive
37.57
Neutral
19.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WYNN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 103.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.27, below the 50-day MA of 114.71, and below the 200-day MA of 113.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WYNN.
Wynn Resorts Risk Analysis
Wynn Resorts disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Wynn Resorts reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Wynn Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.14B | 3.78 | 87.98% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
62 Neutral | $9.17B | 46.86 | 7.74% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $10.67B | 38.12 | ― | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% | |
56 Neutral | $37.43B | 27.64 | 72.73% | 1.51% | 8.37% | 10.20% | |
50 Neutral | $5.09B | -9.69 | -13.11% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% | |
44 Neutral | $2.40B | 12.19 | ― | ― | 11.32% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
103.33
13.48
15.01%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
82.20
9.58
13.20%
LVS
Las Vegas Sands
56.07
10.96
24.29%
MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment
5.84
-0.10
-1.68%
MGM
MGM Resorts
36.68
3.85
11.73%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
25.56
-4.81
-15.84%
Wynn Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Wynn Resorts Reports Softer Profits, Declares Quarterly Dividend
Negative
Feb 12, 2026
Wynn Resorts reported that fourth-quarter 2025 operating revenue edged up to $1.87 billion from $1.84 billion a year earlier, but net income fell sharply to $100 million from $277 million, with diluted EPS down to $0.82 from $2.29, as Adjusted Property EBITDAR slipped to $568.8 million. For full-year 2025, revenue was essentially flat at $7.14 billion while net income declined to $327.3 million from $501.1 million and Adjusted Property EBITDAR fell to $2.22 billion, reflecting softer profitability across Las Vegas, Macau, Wynn Palace and Encore Boston Harbor, even as management highlighted strong casino volumes, progress on the Wynn Al Marjan Island project and maintained shareholder returns with a $0.25 per share cash dividend declared on February 12, 2026, payable March 4, 2026.
Macau’s Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau posted higher fourth-quarter 2025 operating revenues but lower EBITDAR amid less favorable table win percentages, while Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor saw modest revenue and earnings declines versus 2024. The company continued to invest in future growth, contributing $79.2 million in the quarter toward its UAE joint venture, bringing cumulative funding for Wynn Al Marjan Island to $914.2 million ahead of an expected first-quarter 2027 opening, and closed 2025 with $1.46 billion in cash and $10.55 billion in total debt, underscoring a balance between expansion spending, leveraged capital structure and ongoing cash distributions to investors.
The most recent analyst rating on (WYNN) stock is a Buy with a $133.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wynn Resorts stock, see the WYNN Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Wynn Resorts Announces Planned CFO Transition and Succession
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Wynn Resorts announced that Chief Financial Officer Julie Cameron‑Doe will retire from her CFO role effective March 31, 2026 and from her officer role effective June 1, 2026, after helping drive the group’s recent expansion into Europe via the Wynn Mayfair acquisition and into the Middle East through financing for the $5.1 billion Wynn Al Marjan Island project. To ensure continuity, she will remain a consultant to the company and a non‑executive director of Wynn Macau, while Craig Fullalove, currently CFO and Chief Administrative Officer of Wynn Macau, Limited, will assume the Wynn Resorts CFO post on April 1, 2026 under a three‑year employment agreement featuring an $800,000 base salary, substantial incentive and equity components, and defined severance protections, signaling a planned, internally sourced finance leadership transition that preserves strategic and regional expertise as the company continues its global growth initiatives.
The most recent analyst rating on (WYNN) stock is a Buy with a $155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Wynn Resorts stock, see the WYNN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.