Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO)
NASDAQ:MLCO
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Melco Resorts & Entertainment
(NASDAQ:MLCO)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(3.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating results and stronger free cash flow, supported by a positive earnings call (growth momentum, solid liquidity, and debt paydown). Offsetting these are significant balance-sheet risk (high leverage and negative equity) and weak technicals with the price still below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strengthening cash generation
Improving operating cash flow and a meaningful positive free cash flow trajectory provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, maintenance capex and reinvestment. Consistent FCF above accounting earnings in 2024–2025 signals higher cash quality and long‑term flexibility.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and negative equity
Substantial gross debt and persistent negative equity materially weaken financial flexibility. This capital structure increases exposure to higher interest costs, refinancing risk and covenant pressure, making the company sensitive to cash‑flow volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strengthening cash generation
Improving operating cash flow and a meaningful positive free cash flow trajectory provide durable internal funding for debt reduction, maintenance capex and reinvestment. Consistent FCF above accounting earnings in 2024–2025 signals higher cash quality and long‑term flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.4
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth11.32%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees21,784
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding406,792,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,322,720
30 Day Avg. Volume1,748,635
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)-2.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio6.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.62Price Target Upside48.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.33B
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited develops, owns, and operates casino gaming and resort facilities in Asia and Europe. It owns and operates City of Dreams, an integrated casino resort that has approximately 511 gaming tables and 572 gaming mac...
How the Company Makes Money
Melco primarily makes money by operating integrated resorts where gaming is the core revenue driver and non-gaming hospitality and entertainment activities provide additional revenue. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Casino gaming re...
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial trajectory: strong full-year EBITDA growth, robust Macau recovery (including a 24% GGR uptick in early 2026), meaningful liquidity and active debt reduction, large-capex refurbishment plans (Countdown Hotel), and standout growth in Cyprus. Offsetting items included localized underperformance in the Philippines with strategic uncertainty at COD Manila, several event-driven and one-time cost pressures (bad debt, higher OpEx from events), and a forthcoming trademark fee increase. Management framed many negatives as one-offs or manageable and emphasized disciplined cost control and margin focus, supporting continued optimism.Positive Updates
Full-Year Group Property EBITDA Growth
Recorded $1.4 billion in group property EBITDA for FY2025, up 17% year over year versus 2024, indicating strong recovery and margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Philippines Operational Headwinds and Strategic Uncertainty
COD Manila faced continued competitive pressures and industry headwinds in 2025. Management concluded strategic alternatives but did not identify options that fully realize property value and stated they may reevaluate in the future, signaling ongoing uncertainty for that asset.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Group Property EBITDA Growth
Recorded $1.4 billion in group property EBITDA for FY2025, up 17% year over year versus 2024, indicating strong recovery and margin expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided detailed 2026 guidance and 2025 metrics: group property EBITDA for FY2025 was $1.4 billion (up 17% YoY) while group‑wide adjusted property EBITDA was ~ $331 million (up 12% YoY; ~$323 million adjusted for VIP hold), Macau property EBITDA grew 24% in Q4 and 25% for the year, City of Dreams Mediterranean and satellite casinos generated $21 million in 2025 (up 78% YoY), and favorable win rates contributed roughly $7 million (COD Macau) and $3 million (COD Manila) to EBITDA; event‑driven charges included ~ $5 million of bad debt and ~ $6 million for an anniversary event. Balance sheet and cash metrics: available liquidity ~ $2.4 billion, consolidated cash on hand ~ $1.2 billion (with ~ $550 million at Melco excluding certain operations), ~$400 million of debt paid down in 2025 (including redemption of $358 million of 2026 senior notes), $35 million repaid in January and a further ~$25 million planned this month, and no material 2026 maturities. CapEx guidance is ~$450 million for the year (Macau ~ $375 million, Manila $35–40 million, Cyprus $35–40 million) including ~ $100 million for the Countdown Hotel; Macau daily OpEx excluding House of Dancing Water is expected to be ~ $3.2 million/day in 2026 (Q4 pro forma ~ $3.1 million/day) and adjusted Macau EBITDA margin for 2025 would have been over 27% excluding event costs. Non‑operating guidance for 2026: depreciation & amortization ~$140–145 million, corporate expense ~$35 million, and consolidated net interest expense ~$115–120 million (including ~ $6 million finance liability interest and ~ $5 million finance lease interest); trademark fees were ~$33 million in 2025 (1% rate) and will increase to 1.5% in 2026.Melco Resorts & Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.16B | 4.64B | 3.78B | 1.35B | 2.01B |
| Gross Profit | 1.90B | 1.66B | 1.18B | 286.52M | 490.01M |
| EBITDA | 1.14B | 1.02B | 815.96M | -217.57M | -23.19M |
| Net Income | 185.04M | 43.54M | -326.92M | -930.53M | -811.75M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.60B | 7.99B | 8.34B | 9.30B | 8.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.15B | 1.31B | 1.81B | 1.65B |
| Total Debt | 7.02B | 7.46B | 7.77B | 8.71B | 7.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.50B | 8.93B | 9.18B | 9.62B | 8.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.25B | -1.33B | -1.29B | -850.33M | 244.75M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 476.13M | 325.48M | 358.80M | -1.24B | -948.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 818.12M | 626.66M | 622.69M | -619.43M | -268.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -341.77M | -300.81M | -48.51M | -806.11M | -674.55M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -603.12M | -478.35M | -1.13B | 1.78B | 821.75M |
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.81
Price Trends
5.81
Negative
6.87
Negative
7.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
54.25
Neutral
56.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MLCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.59, below the 50-day MA of 5.81, and below the 200-day MA of 7.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MLCO.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Risk Analysis
Melco Resorts & Entertainment disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Melco Resorts & Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.99B | 19.42 | 85.64% | 3.22% | 4.69% | 15.18% | |
62 Neutral | $9.49B | 46.86 | 7.55% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $2.27B | 16.39 | -13.94% | ― | 11.32% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $36.69B | 27.64 | 82.89% | 1.51% | 8.37% | 10.20% | |
57 Neutral | $5.46B | -9.69 | -13.18% | ― | 0.87% | 31.28% | |
54 Neutral | $10.97B | 38.12 | -90.44% | 0.80% | -0.26% | -44.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment
5.81
0.98
20.29%
LVS
Las Vegas Sands
54.60
23.53
75.72%
MGM
MGM Resorts
37.10
8.35
29.04%
WYNN
Wynn Resorts
105.24
33.60
46.89%
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
26.85
1.40
5.50%
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
57.07
18.87
49.39%
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Corporate Events
Melco Resorts Swings to Q4 2025 Profit as Macau Drives Recovery
Feb 13, 2026
Melco Resorts Entertainment reported unaudited results on February 12, 2026, showing fourth-quarter 2025 operating revenue of US$1.29 billion, up about 9% year on year, driven by stronger rolling chip and mass market table play. Operating income ...
Melco Resorts Sets February 12 Release for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Melco Resorts Entertainment announced that it will publish its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 on February 12, 2026, followed by a same-day conference call and webcast ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.