Red Rock Resorts (RRR)
NASDAQ:RRR
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Red Rock Resorts
(NASDAQ:RRR)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(3.67% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/30/26
The score is supported by solid profitability and cash generation, plus constructive earnings-call commentary highlighting strong free cash flow conversion and shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives are balance-sheet risk from leverage history (and current net debt/EBITDA around 4x), near-term margin pressure and disruption from renovations/construction, and weak technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent, robust operating cash flow provides durable funding for capex, shareholder returns, and debt servicing. Over the next 2–6 months this underpins the company’s ability to finance development projects and maintain distributions even if free cash flow varies year-to-year.
Negative Factors
Historical Leverage Risk
Multi-year history of very high leverage and a thin equity base raises durability concerns: if cash flow weakens or capex overruns occur, balance-sheet flexibility could deteriorate quickly, increasing refinancing and covenant risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent, robust operating cash flow provides durable funding for capex, shareholder returns, and debt servicing. Over the next 2–6 months this underpins the company’s ability to finance development projects and maintain distributions even if free cash flow varies year-to-year.
Read all positive factors
Red Rock Resorts (RRR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.56B
Dividend Yield3.22%
Average Volume (3M)872.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth3.75%
EPS Growth20.20%
CountryUS
Employees9,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.73
Shares Outstanding59,141,030
10 Day Avg. Volume703,676
30 Day Avg. Volume872,061
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.87
Price to Book (P/B)17.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio12.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$68.57Price Target Upside20.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Red Rock Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Holdco and Station LLC, develops and operates casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It operates through two segments, Las Vegas Operations and Native American Management. ...
How the Company Makes Money
Red Rock Resorts makes money by operating casino-resort properties and earning revenue across multiple on-property spend categories. (1) Casino gaming is a core driver, with revenue generated from casino play such as slot machines and table games;...
Red Rock Resorts Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows operating profitability for each segment after normalizing for one‑time items, indicating which parts of the business generate the cash flow needed to service debt, fund capital projects, or return capital to shareholders.
Shows operating profitability for each segment after normalizing for one‑time items, indicating which parts of the business generate the cash flow needed to service debt, fund capital projects, or return capital to shareholders.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRed Rock Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational and strategic outlook: revenue growth, record gaming performance, strong free cash flow conversion and meaningful shareholder returns and development progress are notable positives. Offsetting these strengths were modest declines in adjusted EBITDA and margins, temporary disruption from renovations and construction (notably at Green Valley Ranch and Durango) and some cost pressures (utilities, payroll). Management emphasized confidence in the development pipeline, disciplined capital allocation and comfortable leverage, and expects disruptions to be transitory as investments come online.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Las Vegas operations net revenue of $499.5M, up 0.9% year-over-year; consolidated net revenue of $507.3M (includes $4.7M from North Fork), up 1.9% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Declines
Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA decreased to $232.4M, down 1.5% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $212.6M, down 1.2% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Las Vegas operations net revenue of $499.5M, up 0.9% year-over-year; consolidated net revenue of $507.3M (includes $4.7M from North Fork), up 1.9% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided full-year 2026 capital spending of $375–425 million (investment capex $275–300M; maintenance $100–125M), noting Q1 capex of $117.2M (investment $87.2M; maintenance $30M), and reiterated typical seasonality of a Q1→Q2 revenue decline of ~8–9%; they also expect near‑term construction disruption of roughly $9M at Green Valley Ranch in Q2 plus an incremental $2–3M at Durango. Operational and balance‑sheet metrics highlighted in the call included Q1 Las Vegas net revenue $499.5M (up 0.9% YoY), Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA $232.4M (down 1.5% YoY) with a 46.5% margin (down 113 bps), consolidated net revenue $507.3M (up 1.9% YoY), consolidated adjusted EBITDA $212.6M (down 1.2% YoY) with a 41.9% margin (down 129 bps), conversion of 50.3% of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow ($107M, or $1.03/share), cash $134M, total debt $3.6B (net debt $3.4B) and net debt/EBITDA 4.07x. Strategic project and capital details included Durango North (~275k+ sq ft; ~400 additional slots; 36‑lane bowling; summer 2027 opening; est. cost ~$385M), North Fork on pace for early Q4 2026 (all‑in cost ~$750M; fully financed; note receivable ~$80.6M), Sunset Station podium refresh $53M and next phase ~$87M, Green Valley Ranch next phase ~$56M, and continued capital returns (returned ~$170.5M to shareholders this quarter, repurchasing ~635k shares at ~$6.32 avg and reducing shares to ~104.4M; regular dividend $0.26/share declared payable June 30).Red Rock Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.01B | 1.94B | 1.72B | 1.66B | 1.62B |
| Gross Profit | 1.06B | 1.19B | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | 801.60M | 744.12M | 694.32M | 693.14M | 546.54M |
| Net Income | 188.07M | 154.05M | 176.00M | 205.46M | 241.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.17B | 4.05B | 3.95B | 3.35B | 3.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 142.47M | 164.38M | 137.59M | 117.29M | 275.28M |
| Total Debt | 58.18M | 3.44B | 3.33B | 3.02B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.83B | 3.74B | 3.71B | 3.31B | 3.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 208.33M | 215.07M | 168.84M | 43.78M | 59.49M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 288.87M | 249.42M | -207.29M | -19.12M | 544.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 609.51M | 548.26M | 494.34M | 542.22M | 609.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -251.36M | -321.79M | -653.85M | -442.14M | 586.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -380.07M | -199.67M | 179.81M | -290.05M | -1.01B |
Red Rock Resorts Technical Analysis
Positive
56.91
Price Trends
58.91
Negative
59.35
Negative
58.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
49.42
Neutral
52.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.18, below the 50-day MA of 58.91, and below the 200-day MA of 58.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RRR.
Red Rock Resorts Risk Analysis
Red Rock Resorts disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Rock Resorts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We are subject to substantial risk of loss. Certain of our insurance does not fully cover all of our operational risks, and changes in the cost of insurance or the availability of insurance has materially increased and could further materially increase our insurance costs or result in a decrease in our insurance coverage. Q4, 2025
Red Rock Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $6.33B | 14.94 | 91.63% | 0.84% | 3.45% | 272.47% | |
66 Neutral | $6.43B | 19.41 | 36.88% | 0.38% | 5.75% | -4.30% | |
63 Neutral | $5.56B | 18.10 | 84.79% | 3.22% | 3.75% | 20.20% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.24B | -217.94 | -44.48% | ― | 6.38% | -1099.20% | |
56 Neutral | $9.78B | 18.95 | 6.96% | ― | 3.39% | -67.21% | |
50 Neutral | $2.69B | ― | -15.31% | 5.35% | 2.35% | -253.14% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
52.93
11.11
26.57%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
85.15
14.23
20.07%
CHDN
Churchill Downs
92.25
-1.11
-1.19%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
78.26
16.92
27.59%
MGM
MGM Resorts
38.21
6.00
18.63%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
16.75
1.46
9.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.