Red Rock Resorts (RRR)
NASDAQ:RRR
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Red Rock Resorts
(NASDAQ:RRR)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$73.00
▲(24.28% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and cash generation, tempered by balance-sheet leverage risk and higher near-term capital intensity. Technicals are supportive (uptrend with positive momentum), while valuation is mixed with a reasonable P/E balanced by a strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high adjusted EBITDA margins reflect strong operating leverage and disciplined cost control across gaming and non‑gaming segments; durable margin structure supports cash generation, resilience to demand swings, and capacity to fund reinvestment and returns over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage history
Although deleveraging has accelerated, a multi‑year record of thin equity and very high leverage increases refinancing, covenant and liquidity risk. Higher absolute debt burdens limit strategic flexibility and amplify downside in weaker demand periods until leverage is meaningfully lower.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high adjusted EBITDA margins reflect strong operating leverage and disciplined cost control across gaming and non‑gaming segments; durable margin structure supports cash generation, resilience to demand swings, and capacity to fund reinvestment and returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Red Rock Resorts (RRR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.17B
Dividend Yield3.22%
Average Volume (3M)894.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth4.69%
EPS Growth15.18%
CountryUS
Employees9,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding59,141,030
10 Day Avg. Volume959,227
30 Day Avg. Volume894,143
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.87
Price to Book (P/B)17.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio12.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.77Price Target Upside22.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.06B
Red Rock Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Holdco and Station LLC, develops and operates casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It operates through two segments, Las Vegas Operations and Native American Management. ...
How the Company Makes Money
Red Rock Resorts generates revenue through a diverse range of streams primarily from its gaming operations, which include slot machines, table games, and sports betting. Additionally, the company earns income from its hotel accommodations, food an...
Red Rock Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call emphasized strong, record-setting financial and operational performance (multiple record quarters and all-time highs in adjusted EBITDA), robust free cash flow conversion and shareholder returns, active strategic reinvestment across the portfolio, and a healthy development pipeline (Durango expansion, North Fork on track). The primary negatives were near-term construction disruption and associated uncertainty, modest single-digit growth rates, elevated absolute leverage and significant planned 2026 capex, and some external legal and tax-rule ambiguity. Management expressed confidence in long-term growth prospects and the ability to manage short-term disruption.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance — Las Vegas Operations
Las Vegas operations set new fourth-quarter records for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA (Q4 net revenue $505M, +2.5% YoY; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $231M, +3.2% YoY) and delivered the strongest full-year performance on record (FY net revenue just under $2.0B, +2.9% YoY; FY adjusted EBITDA $915.9M, +4.2% YoY). This marked the ninth consecutive record quarter for both net revenue and adjusted EBITDA and the fifth consecutive year of record adjusted EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Construction-Related Disruption and Uncertainty
Ongoing renovation and expansion projects will cause near-term operating disruption. Q4 disruption amounted to ~$5.1M (mainly at Green Valley Ranch) versus larger anticipated disruption in some quarters. Management expects roughly $9M of disruption tied to Green Valley Ranch during peak construction and cannot yet quantify full disruption from Durango and Sunset Station phases.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance — Las Vegas Operations
Las Vegas operations set new fourth-quarter records for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA (Q4 net revenue $505M, +2.5% YoY; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $231M, +3.2% YoY) and delivered the strongest full-year performance on record (FY net revenue just under $2.0B, +2.9% YoY; FY adjusted EBITDA $915.9M, +4.2% YoY). This marked the ninth consecutive record quarter for both net revenue and adjusted EBITDA and the fifth consecutive year of record adjusted EBITDA.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to $375–425 million of total capital spend for 2026 (including $275–300 million of investment capital and $100–125 million of maintenance capital), and reiterated major project costs and timings: Durango expansion ~ $385 million (adds ~275k sq ft and ~400 slots), Sunset Station next phase ~$87 million, Green Valley Ranch next phase ~$56 million, and North Fork total all‑in project cost ~ $750 million (fully financed) with an opening targeted for early Q4 2026 and Red Rock’s outstanding note balance to the tribe of ~$77.9 million; balance sheet and liquidity at Q4 included $142.5 million cash, $3.4 billion total debt, $3.3 billion net debt and a net‑debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.87x (seventh consecutive quarter of deleveraging). Operationally they reported Q4 Las Vegas net revenue of $505.0 million (+2.5% YoY), Las Vegas adjusted EBITDA $231.0 million (+3.2%) with a 45.8% margin (+32 bps), consolidated Q4 net revenue $511.8 million (incl. $3.7M North Fork) and consolidated adjusted EBITDA $213.0 million (41.7% margin, +84 bps); full‑year Las Vegas net revenue was just under $2.0 billion (+2.9%) with adjusted EBITDA $915.9 million (+4.2%, 46.2% margin, +56 bps), and consolidated FY net revenue ~$2.0 billion (incl. $17.6M North Fork) with consolidated adjusted EBITDA $848.6 million (+6.6%, 42.2% margin, +114 bps). They converted 62% of adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow in the quarter ($131.5 million, or $1.25/share) and 55% on a 2025 cumulative basis ($466.3 million, or $4.44/share), returned ~ $296.9 million to shareholders in 2025 (dividends + buybacks), repurchased ~880,000 shares at an average $54.67 reducing shares outstanding to ~104.9 million, and declared a $1.00 special dividend (payable Feb 27, record Feb 20) and a regular $0.26 dividend (payable Mar 31, record Mar 16); Q4 capex was $78.9 million (investment $64.2M, maintenance $14.7M) and full‑year capex was $319 million (investment $227M, maintenance $92M), down from prior guidance due to timing, and management said they still expect to grow Las Vegas EBITDA in 2026 despite near‑term construction disruption (Q4 disruption was ~$5.1M; Green Valley disruption was highlighted at roughly $9M).Red Rock Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.01B | 1.94B | 1.72B | 1.66B | 1.62B |
| Gross Profit | 1.06B | 1.19B | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | 801.60M | 744.12M | 694.32M | 693.14M | 546.54M |
| Net Income | 188.07M | 154.05M | 176.00M | 205.46M | 241.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.17B | 4.05B | 3.95B | 3.35B | 3.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 142.47M | 164.38M | 137.59M | 117.29M | 275.28M |
| Total Debt | 58.18M | 3.44B | 3.33B | 3.02B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.83B | 3.74B | 3.71B | 3.31B | 3.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 208.33M | 215.07M | 168.84M | 43.78M | 59.49M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 288.87M | 249.42M | -207.29M | -19.12M | 544.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 609.51M | 548.26M | 494.34M | 542.22M | 609.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -251.36M | -321.79M | -653.85M | -442.14M | 586.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -380.07M | -199.67M | 179.81M | -290.05M | -1.01B |
Red Rock Resorts Technical Analysis
Neutral
58.74
Price Trends
60.69
Negative
59.09
Negative
57.52
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.77
Negative
47.32
Neutral
37.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 58.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.99, below the 50-day MA of 60.69, and above the 200-day MA of 57.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RRR.
Red Rock Resorts Risk Analysis
Red Rock Resorts disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Rock Resorts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We are subject to substantial risk of loss. Certain of our insurance does not fully cover all of our operational risks, and changes in the cost of insurance or the availability of insurance has materially increased and could further materially increase our insurance costs or result in a decrease in our insurance coverage. Q4, 2025
Red Rock Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $6.41B | 3.78 | 91.87% | 0.84% | 5.91% | 336.91% | |
70 Outperform | $6.17B | 19.42 | 85.64% | 3.22% | 4.69% | 15.18% | |
62 Neutral | $9.59B | 46.86 | 7.55% | ― | 0.05% | -94.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $6.08B | 21.23 | 36.68% | 0.38% | 7.97% | -0.14% | |
50 Neutral | $1.96B | -2.53 | -34.58% | ― | 8.24% | -77.54% | |
49 Neutral | $2.41B | -6.54 | -13.14% | 5.35% | 4.18% | -13.89% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RRR
Red Rock Resorts
58.75
16.50
39.06%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
84.87
17.13
25.30%
CHDN
Churchill Downs
87.20
-25.79
-22.83%
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
70.16
7.02
11.12%
MGM
MGM Resorts
37.49
5.37
16.72%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
14.66
-2.70
-15.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.