Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.75B
• Dividend Yield: 1.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 89.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.61%
• EPS Growth: 22.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 1.25
• Shares Outstanding: 17,886,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 105,440
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 89,676
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.14
• 1Y Price Target: $105.50
• Price Target Upside: 6.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $564.03M

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $108.00 ▲(9.23% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high and improving profitability, very conservative leverage, and robust free cash flow). Corporate events further support the outlook via record results and ongoing shareholder returns. Offsetting factors are neutral technicals (range-bound trading signals) and a valuation that looks fair rather than clearly discounted.

Positive Factors

High & improving profitability

Monarch's trailing margins (gross ~53%, operating ~25%, net ~19%) and improved ROE reflect durable operational efficiency across casino and F&B. High margins underpin internal funding for reinvestment and dividends, and provide resilience to regional visitation swings over the medium term.

Very conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage gives Monarch financial flexibility to fund capex, weather downturns, and pursue opportunistic investments without pressuring credit metrics. A conservative balance sheet supports sustained capital returns and reduces refinancing risk in a rising-rate environment.

Strong cash generation and shareholder returns

Robust operating cash flow and significant free cash flow enabled material buybacks and a declared quarterly dividend, showing cash conversion capacity to support returns. Persistent FCF provides a durable funding source for maintenance capex and shareholder distributions.

Negative Factors

Modest revenue growth

Top-line growth is limited, implying future profitability gains may rely more on margin expansion than volume. Slow revenue trends constrain long-term scale advantages, reduce leverage potential on fixed costs, and limit the runway for sustained earnings growth absent expansion or new revenue streams.

Imperfect cash conversion and working-capital sensitivity

FCF and operating cash flow trail net income, indicating earnings don't fully convert to cash each period. Working-capital or timing swings can cause quarter-to-quarter cash volatility, which raises uncertainty about sustaining buybacks/dividends during adverse demand or expense shocks.

Legal and interest costs pressure earnings

Ongoing litigation-related and interest expenses materially reduced 2025 profitability. If legal matters persist or interest costs rise, they could erode margins and free cash flow, limiting reinvestment and shareholder returns despite otherwise strong fundamentals.

Monarch Casino & Resort Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada. The company also owns and operates the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Black Hawk, Colorado. As of December 31, 2021, its Atlantis Casino Resort Spa featured approximately 61,000 square feet of casino space; 818 guest rooms and suites; 8 food outlets; 2 gourmet coffee and pastry bars; a 30,000 square-foot health spa and salon with an enclosed pool; 2 retail outlets offering clothing and gift shop merchandise; an 8,000 square-foot family entertainment center; and approximately 52,000 square feet of banquet, convention, and meeting room space. The company's Atlantis Casino Resort Spa also featured approximately 1,400 slot and video poker machines; approximately 37 table games, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and others; a race and sports book; a 24-hour live keno lounge; and a poker room. In addition, its Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk featured approximately 60,000 square feet of casino space; approximately 1,100 slot machines; approximately 40 table games; 10 bars and lounges; 4 dining options; 516 guest rooms and suites; banquet and meeting room space; a retail store; a concierge lounge; an upscale spa and pool facility; and a nine-story parking structure with approximately 1,350 spaces, as well as valet parking with a total parking capacity to approximately 1,500 spaces. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Reno, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

Monarch Casino & Resort generates revenue primarily through its gaming operations, which include slot machines, table games, and sports betting. The casino segment represents a significant portion of the company's earnings. Additionally, MCRI earns income from its hotel accommodations, dining establishments, and entertainment services offered within the resort. The company benefits from a loyal customer base and effective marketing strategies that attract both local and out-of-state visitors. Key partnerships with hospitality and entertainment providers also contribute to its revenue streams, enhancing the overall guest experience and encouraging repeat visits.

Monarch Casino & Resort Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals: profitability is high and improving (TTM net margin ~19%) and the balance sheet is exceptionally conservative with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.05) and healthy ROE (~19%). Free cash flow is robust (~$209M TTM) but conversion is less than 1:1 versus net income (FCF/NI ~0.76), and recent revenue growth is modest, which slightly tempers the score.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and improving in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue rose to ~$545M and margins expanded meaningfully (about 53% gross margin, ~25% operating margin, and ~19% net margin). Net income increased to ~$101M versus ~$73M in 2024, showing solid earnings momentum. The main drawback is that recent revenue growth is modest (about 1.7% in TTM), suggesting the latest gains are more margin-driven than top-line driven.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative, with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.05 in TTM) and sizeable equity (~$538M) supporting ~$713M of assets. Returns on shareholder capital are healthy (ROE ~19% in TTM) and have improved versus prior years. A watch item is that total debt has ticked up versus 2024, though it remains small relative to the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with operating cash flow of ~$267M and free cash flow of ~$209M, and a sharp rebound in free cash flow versus 2024. That said, cash flow conversion is not perfect: free cash flow is below net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.76), and operating cash flow trails net income (operating cash flow to net income ~0.84), indicating working-capital or timing effects that could add volatility period to period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	545.13M	522.19M	501.48M	477.87M	395.38M
Gross Profit	246.03M	280.82M	269.18M	259.59M	217.66M
EBITDA	185.82M	143.86M	157.45M	154.88M	128.29M
Net Income	101.39M	72.77M	82.45M	87.48M	68.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	712.85M	691.58M	680.87M	692.94M	690.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	96.47M	58.76M	43.36M	38.78M	33.53M
Total Debt	25.58M	14.06M	20.42M	20.56M	102.39M
Total Liabilities	175.18M	173.84M	167.73M	153.99M	242.44M
Stockholders Equity	537.67M	517.75M	513.14M	538.95M	448.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	128.43M	93.28M	124.04M	100.29M	81.17M
Operating Cash Flow	164.75M	140.71M	173.05M	139.77M	128.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-37.17M	-43.79M	-51.23M	-47.97M	-37.79M
Financing Cash Flow	-89.87M	-81.53M	-117.24M	-86.54M	-85.10M

Monarch Casino & Resort Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 98.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.70, above the 50-day MA of 94.81, and above the 200-day MA of 94.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCRI.

Monarch Casino & Resort Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCRI	78 Outperform	$1.75B	17.61	19.40%	1.22%	4.61%	22.90%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GDEN	57 Neutral	$763.34M	156.19	1.15%	3.71%	-12.25%	-84.89%
FLL	51 Neutral	$83.80M	-2.02	-121.54%	―	7.45%	5.03%
PENN	47 Neutral	$1.69B	-1.98	-35.97%	―	8.24%	-77.54%
CNTY	45 Neutral	$47.11M	-0.37	―	―	-1.57%	-80.41%
BALY	43 Neutral	$651.40M	-1.71	-114.88%	―	0.36%	47.55%

Monarch Casino & Resort Corporate Events

Monarch Casino Reports Record 2025 Results, Declares Dividend

On February 4, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, with net revenue up 4.1% in the quarter and 4.4% for the year, and adjusted EBITDA rising 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively, driven by increased casino and food and beverage revenues and improved operating margins at both Atlantis and Monarch Black Hawk. Net income and earnings per share surged versus 2024, reflecting the absence of a large prior-year litigation accrual tied to a Colorado court judgment involving its Monarch Black Hawk general contractor, although 2025 results were still negatively impacted by interest expense and higher legal and litigation-related costs; the company also highlighted strong liquidity with $96.5 million in cash and no debt, funded $3.4 million of capital expenditures, repurchased $72.2 million of stock in 2025, and on February 4, 2026 declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share as part of its ongoing capital return strategy to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MCRI) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monarch Casino & Resort stock, see the MCRI Stock Forecast page.

Monarch Casino appoints new independent director to board

On December 17, 2025, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. announced that director Yvette E. Landau will resign from the board and from its Compensation and Audit committees, effective January 1, 2026, with the company emphasizing that her departure does not stem from any disagreement over operations, governance, or strategy. Effective the same date and subject to regulatory approvals, the board appointed veteran banker and investment manager Hope Taitz, CEO of ELY Capital and an experienced public-company director, to fill Landau’s seat on the board and its key committees, outlining a standard non-employee director compensation package that underscores Monarch’s effort to reinforce its governance bench with a financially sophisticated, independent director while signaling continuity and stability to shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MCRI) stock is a Buy with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monarch Casino & Resort stock, see the MCRI Stock Forecast page.