Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.70B
• Dividend Yield: 1.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 89.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 4.61%
• EPS Growth: 22.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 1.25
• Shares Outstanding: 18,250,292
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 105,440
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 89,676
• PEG Ratio: -2.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.50
• 1Y Price Target: $105.50
• Price Target Upside: 10.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $105.00 ▲(9.96% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet), partially offset by deteriorating cash-flow growth and only mixed technical momentum. Valuation is reasonable and corporate events are supportive due to record results and meaningful capital returns.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

An exceptionally low debt load and a ~77% equity ratio give Monarch strong financial flexibility. Minimal leverage reduces bankruptcy risk, supports investment or M&A optionality, and enables sustained dividend and buyback capacity through multi-quarter downturns without stressing the capital structure.

Healthy margins and revenue growth

Consistent revenue growth combined with high gross and EBITDA margins indicates durable earnings power from the core casino, F&B and lodging operations. Strong margins provide operating leverage, support reinvestment in the property base, and underpin resilient cash generation over time.

Strong liquidity and shareholder capital returns

Material cash on hand, zero net debt and sizable 2025 repurchases plus a dollar dividend reflect disciplined capital allocation. This liquidity profile allows continued shareholder returns and targeted reinvestment while providing a buffer against gaming-cycle volatility without immediate need for external financing.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating free cash flow growth and conversion

A steep 71% decline in free cash flow growth and a low operating cash flow-to-net-income ratio suggest weakening cash conversion and earnings quality. That trend can constrain sustainable funding for dividends, buybacks and maintenance or expansion capex, increasing reliance on balance-sheet buffers.

Ongoing litigation and interest expense pressure

Persistent legal costs and interest expense created drag in 2025 and signal potential for recurring, unpredictable outflows. Continued litigation exposure can raise operating expense volatility, require reserves, and erode persistent free cash available for strategic initiatives and shareholder distributions.

Concentration in single resort / regional market

Monarch's business is concentrated in one primary resort and regional market, concentrating demand, regulatory and competitive risks. Local economic or regulatory shifts, weather or tourism changes, or intensified nearby competition could disproportionately depress revenue and slow long-term growth relative to more geographically diversified peers.

Monarch Casino & Resort Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada. The company also owns and operates the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Black Hawk, Colorado. As of December 31, 2021, its Atlantis Casino Resort Spa featured approximately 61,000 square feet of casino space; 818 guest rooms and suites; 8 food outlets; 2 gourmet coffee and pastry bars; a 30,000 square-foot health spa and salon with an enclosed pool; 2 retail outlets offering clothing and gift shop merchandise; an 8,000 square-foot family entertainment center; and approximately 52,000 square feet of banquet, convention, and meeting room space. The company's Atlantis Casino Resort Spa also featured approximately 1,400 slot and video poker machines; approximately 37 table games, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and others; a race and sports book; a 24-hour live keno lounge; and a poker room. In addition, its Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk featured approximately 60,000 square feet of casino space; approximately 1,100 slot machines; approximately 40 table games; 10 bars and lounges; 4 dining options; 516 guest rooms and suites; banquet and meeting room space; a retail store; a concierge lounge; an upscale spa and pool facility; and a nine-story parking structure with approximately 1,350 spaces, as well as valet parking with a total parking capacity to approximately 1,500 spaces. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Reno, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

Monarch Casino & Resort generates revenue primarily through its gaming operations, which include slot machines, table games, and sports betting. The casino segment represents a significant portion of the company's earnings. Additionally, MCRI earns income from its hotel accommodations, dining establishments, and entertainment services offered within the resort. The company benefits from a loyal customer base and effective marketing strategies that attract both local and out-of-state visitors. Key partnerships with hospitality and entertainment providers also contribute to its revenue streams, enhancing the overall guest experience and encouraging repeat visits.

Monarch Casino & Resort Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: solid revenue growth (9.24% TTM) and healthy profitability (15.32% net margin; 29.19% EBITDA margin), plus an exceptionally strong balance sheet with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity 0.024) and a high equity ratio (76.97%). The key offset is weaker cash-flow quality, with free cash flow growth down sharply (-71.22% TTM) and low operating cash flow to net income (0.27).

Income Statement

Monarch Casino & Resort shows strong financial performance with a healthy revenue growth rate of 9.24% TTM, indicating robust business expansion. The company maintains solid profitability with a gross profit margin of 52.73% and a net profit margin of 15.32% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 19.14% and 29.19% TTM, respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, a slight decline in gross profit margin from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.024 TTM, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. Return on equity is solid at 15.22% TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 76.97% TTM, highlighting a strong equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a mixed picture. While the free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.22 TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to profits, the free cash flow growth rate has significantly declined by 71.22% TTM, suggesting potential challenges in sustaining cash flow levels. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.27 TTM, which may indicate less efficient cash conversion from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	539.63M	522.19M	501.48M	477.87M	395.38M	184.41M
Gross Profit	284.53M	280.82M	269.18M	259.59M	217.66M	99.70M
EBITDA	158.04M	143.86M	157.45M	154.88M	128.29M	32.59M
Net Income	82.66M	72.77M	82.45M	87.48M	68.49M	23.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	725.38M	691.58M	680.87M	692.94M	690.46M	671.88M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.64M	58.76M	43.36M	38.78M	33.53M	28.31M
Total Debt	26.10M	14.06M	20.42M	20.56M	102.39M	194.46M
Total Liabilities	167.01M	173.84M	167.73M	153.99M	242.44M	303.81M
Stockholders Equity	558.38M	517.75M	513.14M	538.95M	448.01M	368.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	122.45M	93.28M	124.04M	100.29M	81.17M	-57.22M
Operating Cash Flow	164.41M	140.71M	173.05M	139.77M	128.10M	31.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.24M	-43.79M	-51.23M	-47.97M	-37.79M	-46.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-52.92M	-81.53M	-117.24M	-86.54M	-85.10M	-17.28M

Monarch Casino & Resort Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 95.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.68, above the 50-day MA of 94.95, and above the 200-day MA of 93.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCRI.

Monarch Casino & Resort Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCRI	73 Outperform	$1.70B	17.18	19.40%	1.22%	4.61%	22.90%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GDEN	57 Neutral	$724.34M	148.21	1.15%	3.71%	-12.25%	-84.89%
FLL	51 Neutral	$84.89M	-1.95	-121.54%	―	7.45%	5.03%
PENN	47 Neutral	$1.73B	-1.95	-35.97%	―	8.24%	-77.54%
CNTY	45 Neutral	$45.35M	-0.35	―	―	-1.57%	-80.41%
BALY	43 Neutral	$724.16M	-1.83	-114.88%	―	0.36%	47.55%

Monarch Casino & Resort Corporate Events

Monarch Casino Reports Record 2025 Results, Declares Dividend

On February 4, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, with net revenue up 4.1% in the quarter and 4.4% for the year, and adjusted EBITDA rising 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively, driven by increased casino and food and beverage revenues and improved operating margins at both Atlantis and Monarch Black Hawk. Net income and earnings per share surged versus 2024, reflecting the absence of a large prior-year litigation accrual tied to a Colorado court judgment involving its Monarch Black Hawk general contractor, although 2025 results were still negatively impacted by interest expense and higher legal and litigation-related costs; the company also highlighted strong liquidity with $96.5 million in cash and no debt, funded $3.4 million of capital expenditures, repurchased $72.2 million of stock in 2025, and on February 4, 2026 declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share as part of its ongoing capital return strategy to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MCRI) stock is a Buy with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monarch Casino & Resort stock, see the MCRI Stock Forecast page.

Monarch Casino appoints new independent director to board

On December 17, 2025, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. announced that director Yvette E. Landau will resign from the board and from its Compensation and Audit committees, effective January 1, 2026, with the company emphasizing that her departure does not stem from any disagreement over operations, governance, or strategy. Effective the same date and subject to regulatory approvals, the board appointed veteran banker and investment manager Hope Taitz, CEO of ELY Capital and an experienced public-company director, to fill Landau’s seat on the board and its key committees, outlining a standard non-employee director compensation package that underscores Monarch’s effort to reinforce its governance bench with a financially sophisticated, independent director while signaling continuity and stability to shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MCRI) stock is a Buy with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monarch Casino & Resort stock, see the MCRI Stock Forecast page.