tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Meritage (MTH)
NYSE:MTH
Advertisement

Meritage (MTH) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
459 Followers

Top Page

MTH

Meritage

(NYSE:MTH)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(12.47%Upside)
Meritage Homes is supported by strong valuation metrics and a healthy balance sheet. However, financial performance is hindered by cash flow challenges and revenue decline. The stock's technical indicators show stability, while recent corporate events present mixed implications for future performance.
Positive Factors
Market Position
Meritage Homes has become the 5th largest US homebuilder by deliveries, gaining market share from its previous position.
Valuation
Meritage trades at 0.9X price-to-book, which is considered an attractive valuation and a good entry point for shares.
Negative Factors
Backlog
Backlog conversion ratio was 220% in 1Q25, well above the 125% long-term target, but this level is likely unsustainable.
Risks
Risks for Meritage include high mortgage rates, soft housing demand, rising land prices, and tariff uncertainty.

Meritage (MTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Meritage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMeritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a leading designer and builder of single-family homes in the United States. The company primarily operates in the residential construction sector, focusing on building energy-efficient homes tailored to meet the needs of first-time and move-up buyers. With a commitment to quality and innovation, Meritage offers a variety of home styles and communities across several states, providing buyers with sustainable living options and modern amenities.
How the Company Makes MoneyMeritage Homes generates revenue through the construction and sale of single-family homes. The company's primary revenue stream comes from home sales, which encompass the entire process from land acquisition and development to design, construction, and final sale to the consumer. Additionally, Meritage benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and contractors to ensure cost-effective sourcing of materials and labor. The company's focus on energy-efficient homes appeals to environmentally conscious consumers and can offer competitive differentiation in the market, potentially leading to increased sales and profitability. Revenue is also influenced by market conditions, including housing demand, interest rates, and economic factors that affect consumer purchasing power.

Meritage Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.88%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Meritage Homes showed strong operational achievements such as record community count and improved cycle times, alongside proactive shareholder returns. However, these were offset by significant challenges including a decline in home closing revenue, gross margin pressure, and increased SG&A expenses due to market conditions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Community Count
Meritage Homes achieved a community count of 312 active stores, marking the highest in company history with plans for further growth.
Improved Cycle Times
The company reduced construction times from approximately 120 days to 110 days, enhancing operational efficiency.
Strong Absorption Pace
Meritage Homes maintained a strong absorption rate of 4.3 net sales per month during Q2 2025.
Backlog Conversion
Achieved over 200% backlog conversion, improving inventory turnover and cycle times.
Shareholder Returns
Increased quarterly cash dividend by 15% year-over-year and spent $45 million on share buybacks during Q2 2025.
Negative Updates
Decline in Home Closing Revenue
Home closing revenue decreased by 5% year-over-year, primarily due to increased financing incentives and lower ASP.
Gross Margin Pressure
Home closing gross margin fell by 480 basis points to 21.1% in Q2 2025 due to increased financing incentives and higher land costs.
Market Challenges
Faced increased mortgage rates and consumer hesitancy. Entry-level affordability remains a barrier to homeownership.
Higher SG&A Expenses
SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue increased to 10.2% from 9.3% due to higher commissions and spec inventory carry costs.
Company Guidance
During the Meritage Homes Second Quarter 2025 Analyst Call, the company reported several key metrics and strategic insights. Meritage secured orders for 3,914 homes and delivered 4,170 homes in Q2 2025, achieving a home closing revenue of $1.6 billion. They reported an adjusted home closing gross margin of 21.4%, excluding terminated land deal charges. The company's diluted EPS for the quarter was $2.04, and they saw a 10% year-over-year increase in book value per share. Community count reached 312, marking the highest in company history. The average absorption pace was 4.3 net sales per month, with a cancellation rate of 10%. Average selling price (ASP) on orders was $395,000, down 5% from the previous year due to increased financing incentives. Meritage aims for double-digit year-over-year growth in community count by the end of 2025. Additionally, land acquisition and development spend was reduced to $509 million, with plans to lower full-year land spend from $2.5 billion to $2 billion. The company maintained a healthy balance sheet with $930 million in cash and a net debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.6%.

Meritage Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Meritage demonstrates strong profitability and a solid equity base, but faces challenges in cash flow management and declining return on equity. Improvements in cash flow generation are necessary for sustainable growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Meritage shows a strong performance in terms of profitability with a stable gross profit margin and a healthy net profit margin over the TTM period. The revenue growth trajectory is moderate, though slightly down from previous years. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient core operations.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
The balance sheet is solid with a strong equity base, as evidenced by an impressive equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a reasonable leverage level. However, return on equity has been declining, which might indicate pressure on profitability or efficiency in using shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow management appears challenging, with negative free cash flow growth and a negative operating cash flow over the TTM. While the company has managed its financing activities, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio is a concern for liquidity and internal cash generation.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.39B6.14B6.30B5.15B4.51B
Gross Profit1.60B1.52B1.80B1.44B976.00M
EBITDA1.03B972.93M1.31B999.59M566.79M
Net Income786.19M738.75M992.19M737.44M423.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.16B6.35B5.77B4.81B3.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments651.55M921.23M861.56M618.34M745.62M
Total Debt1.39B1.06B1.15B1.16B1.02B
Total Liabilities2.02B1.74B1.82B1.76B1.52B
Stockholders Equity5.14B4.61B3.95B3.04B2.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-256.23M317.38M378.30M-177.76M510.43M
Operating Cash Flow-227.58M355.57M405.27M-152.09M530.36M
Investing Cash Flow-44.07M-43.62M-32.29M-26.82M-18.23M
Financing Cash Flow1.98M-252.28M-129.76M51.63M-85.97M

Meritage Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price71.13
Price Trends
50DMA
67.67
Positive
100DMA
67.86
Positive
200DMA
75.23
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Positive
RSI
52.99
Neutral
STOCH
17.97
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.09, above the 50-day MA of 67.67, and below the 200-day MA of 75.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTH.

Meritage Risk Analysis

Meritage disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Meritage reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Meritage Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$2.70B7.8511.38%-3.59%-10.82%
78
Outperform
$3.17B6.6017.56%7.39%-1.37%
75
Outperform
$2.70B7.9222.12%13.87%6.54%
74
Outperform
$4.79B7.6812.58%2.39%-3.72%-23.00%
70
Outperform
$5.86B6.8415.59%13.77%28.57%
67
Neutral
$3.76B7.3114.07%1.75%3.65%-0.61%
57
Neutral
HK$24.98B3.78-1.97%5.91%-0.17%-66.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MTH
Meritage
71.13
-22.54
-24.06%
KBH
KB Home
57.19
-22.71
-28.42%
MHO
M/I Homes
122.64
-31.27
-20.32%
TPH
Tri Pointe
32.01
-11.16
-25.85%
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
61.71
-2.63
-4.09%
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
63.74
-8.05
-11.21%

Meritage Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Meritage Extends Credit Agreement Maturity to 2030
Neutral
Jul 9, 2025

On July 9, 2025, Meritage Homes Corporation entered into the Eleventh Amendment to its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, originally dated June 13, 2014. This amendment extends the maturity date of the credit agreement from June 12, 2029, to July 9, 2030, impacting the company’s financial planning and potentially influencing its market strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTH) stock is a Hold with a $98.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Meritage stock, see the MTH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Meritage Homes Implements Board Declassification Amendments
Positive
May 22, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Meritage Homes Corporation’s Board of Directors implemented amendments to their bylaws to declassify the Board, following stockholder approval at the Annual Meeting. This change is part of a broader effort to enhance governance and transparency within the company. During the same meeting, stockholders elected new directors, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, approved executive compensation, and supported a proposal for transparency in political spending. These decisions reflect a commitment to accountability and strategic governance, potentially impacting the company’s operational and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTH) stock is a Hold with a $98.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Meritage stock, see the MTH Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Meritage COO Clint Szubinski Announces Resignation
Negative
May 13, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Clint Szubinski, the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Meritage Homes, announced his resignation for personal reasons. His departure, effective May 16, 2025, marks a significant change in the company’s leadership, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTH) stock is a Hold with a $98.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Meritage stock, see the MTH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025