Taylor Morrison (TMHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.72B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 13.77%
• EPS Growth: 28.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.92
• Shares Outstanding: 98,843,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,013,091
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,226,055
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.37
• 1Y Price Target: $75.88
• Price Target Upside: 11.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $77.00 ▲(13.05% Upside)

Taylor Morrison's strong financial performance and bullish technical indicators are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's undervaluation adds to its appeal, although the lack of a dividend yield and mixed earnings call sentiment present some risks. Overall, the stock is well-positioned but faces challenges from market pressures and increased cancellations.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Taylor Morrison Home reported adjusted EPS above consensus estimates and maintained its full year delivery guidance.

Growth Potential

The company is positioned for organic growth after expanding through acquisitions, reducing the need for further M&A or increased land acquisition.

Valuation

The company's valuation is attractive, trading at a discount compared to other homebuilders with similar return on tangible equity.

Negative Factors

Demand

Orders decreased year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, with demand showing intermittent choppiness.

Gross Margin

The gross margin outlook is impacted by a mix shift to more lower margin spec homes.

Sales Performance

The absorption pace of sales per month was below normal seasonality.

Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States. The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities. It also develops and constructs multi-use properties consisting of commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name; and offers title insurance and closing settlement services, as well as financial services. In addition, the company operates under the Taylor Morrison, William Lyon Signature, and Darling Homes brand names in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North and South Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Taylor Morrison generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential properties. The company constructs homes and communities, selling these homes directly to consumers or through real estate agents. Key revenue streams include the sale of new homes, which account for the majority of its earnings, as well as revenue from financial services, including mortgage origination and title insurance. Additionally, TMHC may benefit from land development and management services. The company's strategic partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors help manage construction costs and timelines, contributing to its profitability. Market demand, favorable interest rates, and economic conditions also play significant roles in influencing its revenue.

Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Taylor Morrison exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, solid profitability margins, and improved leverage ratios. The company's robust free cash flow growth and healthy balance sheet position it well for future opportunities.

Income Statement

Taylor Morrison has shown robust revenue growth over the past periods, with a recent TTM revenue increase of 2.88% from the previous year. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 24.1% and a net profit margin of 10.75% for the TTM, indicating strong profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 15.03% and 15.4%, respectively. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable and profitable growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a favorable equity ratio of 64.09%, suggesting a strong equity position relative to total assets. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.012 in the latest TTM, enhancing the financial stability. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 14.91% for TTM, reflecting efficient equity utilization, though slightly lower than the previous year's 15.06%.

Cash Flow

Taylor Morrison displays a positive trend in cash flow management, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 182.21% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.58, while the free cash flow to net income ratio is commendable at 0.54, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.40B	8.17B	7.42B	8.22B	7.50B	6.13B
Gross Profit	2.03B	1.98B	1.78B	2.09B	1.55B	1.04B
EBITDA	1.29B	1.25B	1.12B	1.48B	919.52M	509.18M
Net Income	903.29M	883.31M	768.93M	1.05B	663.03M	243.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.45B	9.30B	8.67B	8.47B	8.73B	7.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	130.17M	487.15M	798.57M	725.58M	834.93M	532.84M
Total Debt	74.41M	2.20B	2.10B	2.58B	3.40B	3.01B
Total Liabilities	3.39B	3.42B	3.34B	3.82B	4.76B	4.14B
Stockholders Equity	6.06B	5.87B	5.31B	4.63B	3.93B	3.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	490.33M	173.75M	772.74M	1.08B	355.45M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	525.41M	210.08M	806.17M	1.11B	376.65M	1.12B
Investing Cash Flow	-135.25M	-136.44M	-97.19M	-14.88M	-74.26M	-312.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-504.67M	-393.57M	-628.51M	-1.20B	-155.00K	-604.94M

Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 68.11
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.02, above the 50-day MA of 62.40, and above the 200-day MA of 62.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMHC.

Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOL	80 Outperform	$12.81B	9.68	18.09%	0.73%	1.59%	-8.04%
NVR	78 Outperform	$23.63B	17.38	38.10%	―	5.87%	-1.74%
TMHC	76 Outperform	$6.72B	7.86	15.59%	―	13.77%	28.57%
MTH	74 Outperform	$5.48B	8.78	12.58%	2.08%	-3.72%	-23.00%
PHM	73 Outperform	$25.39B	9.62	23.05%	0.67%	5.04%	2.07%
LEN	71 Outperform	$33.97B	10.91	13.04%	1.51%	-1.26%	-17.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.43B	12.62	-6.02%	3.11%	1.71%	-15.47%

Taylor Morrison Corporate Events

Taylor Morrison Holds 2025 Annual Stockholder Meeting

On May 22, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of stockholders, where nine directors were elected to serve until the 2026 meeting. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation plan and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.