Taylor Morrison (TMHC)
NYSE:TMHC
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Taylor Morrison
(NYSE:TMHC)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$67.00
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
TMHC scores well on solid financial footing (improved leverage, resilient profitability despite margin pressure) and supportive technical momentum, with valuation a clear positive given the low P/E. The main offset is the earnings outlook’s near-term margin and demand/backlog risk tied to elevated spec inventory.
Positive Factors
Improved Balance Sheet
Taylor Morrison's materially lower debt-to-equity (to ~0.37) and improved capitalization give durable financial flexibility. This stronger balance sheet supports land investment, opportunistic buybacks and withstands cyclical demand swings, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Spec Inventory
A ~3,000 unsold spec base ties capital in finished and near-finished homes and forces sales-driven price/marketing concessions. Persistently high spec levels compress margins, increase carrying costs, and slow conversion of inventory to cash, creating multi-month headwinds to durable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Balance Sheet
Taylor Morrison's materially lower debt-to-equity (to ~0.37) and improved capitalization give durable financial flexibility. This stronger balance sheet supports land investment, opportunistic buybacks and withstands cyclical demand swings, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Taylor Morrison (TMHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.72B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth6.98%
EPS Growth9.74%
CountryUS
Employees3,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.76
Shares Outstanding96,333,670
10 Day Avg. Volume1,224,717
30 Day Avg. Volume1,151,180
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.72
P/FCF Ratio7.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.00Price Target Upside9.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.66B
Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States. The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-...
How the Company Makes Money
Taylor Morrison makes money primarily by building and selling homes. Its largest revenue stream is homebuilding revenue recognized when a home is delivered/closed with the buyer; this reflects the contracted sales price of the home and typically i...
Taylor Morrison Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a largely constructive operating and capital return story: Taylor Morrison delivered nearly 13,000 homes in 2025, maintained strong adjusted profitability (23% adjusted gross margin), improved cycle times and liquidity, and returned substantial capital to shareholders via buybacks while expanding strategic platforms (Esplanade and Yardley). Near-term headwinds include a lower-than-normal backlog, an elevated spec mix that pressured margins (Q1 guide ~20%), an unsold inventory of ~3,000 homes, and modestly higher interest and lot cost pressures. Management outlined concrete actions (rightsizing spec inventory, shifting land investment toward core/move-up and resort lifestyle markets, and scaling to-be-built sales) that support a recovery in margins later in 2026 and re-acceleration in 2027. Overall, positives around profitability, balance sheet strength, operational improvements, and disciplined capital allocation outweigh the near-term margin and demand challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Deliveries and Revenue
Delivered 12,997 homes in 2025 (nearly 13,000) at an average price of $597, generating approximately $7.8 billion of home closings revenue for the year.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Order & Pace Softness
Net orders in Q4 were 2,499 homes, down 5% year-over-year; monthly absorption pace moderated to 2.4 homes per community from 2.6 a year ago, indicating softer demand dynamics.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Deliveries and Revenue
Delivered 12,997 homes in 2025 (nearly 13,000) at an average price of $597, generating approximately $7.8 billion of home closings revenue for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 called for roughly 11,000 home deliveries (about 2,200 in Q1), average closing price ~ $580,000 in Q1 and $580k–$590k for the full year, and Q1 home-closing gross margin of ~20% (with margins expected to gradually improve later in the year); the company plans high-single-digit outlet growth to 365–370 outlets by year-end with well over 100 new outlets (including >20 Esplanade), entered the year with a backlog of just over 2,800 homes, and expects to invest about $2.0 billion in land in 2026 (lot costs up mid-single-digits); SG&A is expected in the mid‑10% range, net interest expense to increase modestly, and the firm intends to repurchase ~ $400 million of stock (average diluted shares ~95M for the year, ~98M in Q1); liquidity remains strong at ≈ $1.8 billion, net homebuilding debt-to-cap ~17.8%, and management noted spec inventory of ~3,000 unsold homes (≈1,232 finished), 5,682 homes under construction, Q4 starts of 2,136, Q4 net orders of 2,499 (‑5% Y/Y) with cancellations at 12.5%, and continued emphasis on improving mix toward higher‑margin to‑be‑built sales.Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.12B | 8.17B | 7.42B | 8.22B | 7.50B |
| Gross Profit | 1.87B | 2.01B | 1.79B | 2.12B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.14B | 1.28B | 1.13B | 1.51B | 894.79M |
| Net Income | 782.50M | 883.31M | 768.93M | 1.05B | 663.03M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.84B | 9.30B | 8.67B | 8.47B | 8.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 851.23M | 487.15M | 798.57M | 724.49M | 832.82M |
| Total Debt | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.10B | 2.58B | 3.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.53B | 3.42B | 3.34B | 3.82B | 4.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.31B | 5.87B | 5.31B | 4.63B | 3.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 807.37M | 173.75M | 772.74M | 1.08B | 355.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 847.75M | 210.08M | 806.17M | 1.11B | 376.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -185.17M | -136.44M | -97.19M | -14.88M | -74.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -298.51M | -393.57M | -628.51M | -1.20B | -155.00K |
Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis
Neutral
60.30
Price Trends
62.02
Negative
61.68
Negative
62.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.64
Negative
52.33
Neutral
89.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 60.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.67, below the 50-day MA of 62.02, and below the 200-day MA of 62.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMHC.
Taylor Morrison Risk Analysis
Taylor Morrison disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Taylor Morrison reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $5.72B | 8.21 | 12.83% | ― | 6.98% | 9.74% | |
76 Outperform | $23.05B | 10.46 | 17.51% | 0.78% | 1.76% | -4.24% | |
75 Outperform | $18.75B | 15.79 | 34.29% | ― | 3.61% | -6.94% | |
72 Outperform | $41.32B | 17.70 | 13.81% | 1.14% | -6.93% | -19.41% | |
69 Neutral | $13.27B | 16.39 | 16.86% | 0.70% | 1.11% | -10.03% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $21.84B | 30.47 | 8.04% | 1.91% | -3.78% | -44.21% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
60.30
4.33
7.74%
DHI
DR Horton
144.33
24.72
20.67%
LEN
Lennar
89.79
-14.42
-13.84%
NVR
NVR
6,781.69
-459.29
-6.34%
PHM
PulteGroup
121.75
27.07
28.59%
TOL
Toll Brothers
141.31
47.82
51.15%
Taylor Morrison Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Taylor Morrison Announces Board Streamlining After Director Retirement
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Taylor Morrison director David Merritt notified the company that he would retire from the board effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with the company noting that his departure did not stem from any disagreement ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.