Want to see TMHC full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Taylor Morrison
(NYSE:TMHC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$83.00
▲(14.56% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/25/26
TMHC scores strongest on financial performance (solid margins, improved leverage, and strong TTM free cash flow) and is further boosted by the completed Berkshire all-cash acquisition at $72.50 per share. The main offsets are signs of cyclical normalization in results and near-term pressure discussed on the earnings call, plus overbought technical indicators that can imply short-term volatility.
Positive Factors
Strategic acquisition & scale
The completed Berkshire Hathaway acquisition is a structural change that places Taylor Morrison under a deep-capital parent and integrates it with Clayton Properties Group. That scale and capital support reduce public-market volatility, enable longer-term land and product investments, and enhance competitive positioning across segments.
Negative Factors
Revenue and profit normalization
Meaningful year‑over‑year declines in closings and net income signal a normalization in demand and pricing power. This reduces operating leverage, pressures SG&A as a percentage of revenue, and can persist through housing cycles, making near‑term profit recovery dependent on market reacceleration rather than internal fixes alone.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic acquisition & scale
The completed Berkshire Hathaway acquisition is a structural change that places Taylor Morrison under a deep-capital parent and integrates it with Clayton Properties Group. That scale and capital support reduce public-market volatility, enable longer-term land and product investments, and enhance competitive positioning across segments.
Read all positive factors
Taylor Morrison (TMHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.67B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-8.99%
EPS Growth-22.26%
CountryUS
Employees3,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.81
Shares Outstanding91,999,954
10 Day Avg. Volume2,889,183
30 Day Avg. Volume3,133,059
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.72
P/FCF Ratio7.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.75Price Target Upside0.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.67B
Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation functions as a publicly listed residential construction enterprise within the United States. The company's core business involves the design, development, and sale of various housing types, including both single an...
How the Company Makes Money
Taylor Morrison primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes to homebuyers. Revenue is recognized when a home closes (title transfers) to the customer, and the sales price reflects the base home plus selected lot premiums and structura...
Taylor Morrison Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of operational progress and near‑term challenges. Positive developments include a meaningful backlog rebuild (+23%), a shift toward higher‑margin to‑be‑built sales (to 38% from 28%), strong liquidity ($1.6B), record digital/AI adoption, disciplined land and inventory management (finished specs down 30%), and the reaffirmation of full‑year guidance. Offsetting these positives are material year‑over‑year declines in revenue and profitability (Q1 revenue down from $1.8B to ~$1.3B; adjusted net income and EPS roughly halved versus prior year), margin compression versus last year (down ~420 bps), lower orders (‑14% YoY), and continued incentive and rate pressure that could weigh on near‑term margins. Management emphasized discipline, technology‑led efficiency and a plan to scale community openings to drive reacceleration in 2027, but substantial YoY earnings declines and macro/rate headwinds temper the tone.Positive Updates
Backlog Rebuild and To‑Be‑Built Mix
Backlog increased 23% from year-end to 3,465 homes; to‑be‑built orders rose to 38% of orders (from 28% in Q4), signaling a favorable mix shift toward higher‑margin build‑to‑order sales; finished inventory declined 30% sequentially to 863 homes.
Negative Updates
Year‑Over‑Year Revenue and Profit Declines
Home closings revenue fell to ~ $1.3 billion from $1.8 billion in Q1 2025 due primarily to lower closings volume; adjusted net income declined to $109 million from $226 million year‑over‑year and adjusted EPS fell to $1.12 from $2.19 (~49% decline).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Backlog Rebuild and To‑Be‑Built Mix
Backlog increased 23% from year-end to 3,465 homes; to‑be‑built orders rose to 38% of orders (from 28% in Q4), signaling a favorable mix shift toward higher‑margin build‑to‑order sales; finished inventory declined 30% sequentially to 863 homes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Taylor Morrison reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for roughly 11,000 home closings at an average closing price of $580,000–$590,000, an ending community count of 365–370, SG&A near the mid‑10% range of home‑closings revenue, an effective tax rate of ~25%, approximately $2.0 billion of homebuilding land investment, and ~$400 million of planned share repurchases (implying an average diluted share count of ~95 million for the year). For Q2 the company expects 2,500–2,600 closings at an average closing price of about $575,000, a home‑closings gross margin of at least 20% (excluding inventory charges), an ending community count of ~370, a Q2 effective tax rate of ~25.5% and an average diluted share count of ~95 million.Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.61B | 8.12B | 8.17B | 7.42B | 8.22B | 7.50B |
| Gross Profit | 1.71B | 1.87B | 2.01B | 1.79B | 2.12B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 968.58M | 1.10B | 1.21B | 1.05B | 1.44B | 894.79M |
| Net Income | 672.14M | 782.50M | 883.31M | 768.93M | 1.05B | 663.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.77B | 9.84B | 9.30B | 8.67B | 8.47B | 8.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 652.93M | 851.23M | 487.15M | 798.57M | 724.49M | 832.82M |
| Total Debt | 2.41B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.10B | 2.58B | 3.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.52B | 3.53B | 3.42B | 3.34B | 3.82B | 4.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.25B | 6.29B | 5.87B | 5.31B | 4.63B | 3.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 709.65M | 807.37M | 173.75M | 772.74M | 1.08B | 355.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 751.47M | 847.75M | 210.08M | 806.17M | 1.11B | 376.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.59M | -185.17M | -136.44M | -97.19M | -14.88M | -74.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -326.55M | -298.51M | -393.57M | -628.51M | -1.20B | -155.00K |
Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis
Positive
72.45
Price Trends
70.03
Positive
64.67
Positive
63.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.65
Positive
73.67
Negative
58.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.19, above the 50-day MA of 70.03, and above the 200-day MA of 63.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 73.67 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMHC.
Taylor Morrison Risk Analysis
Taylor Morrison disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Taylor Morrison reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.67B | 10.64 | 10.85% | ― | -8.99% | -22.26% | |
74 Outperform | $23.71B | 12.87 | 14.73% | 0.78% | -7.28% | -26.86% | |
74 Outperform | $13.64B | 10.95 | 15.49% | 0.68% | 3.62% | -2.11% | |
72 Outperform | $16.59B | 15.13 | 31.02% | ― | -9.30% | -19.36% | |
69 Neutral | $19.79B | 12.89 | 7.36% | 2.36% | -7.47% | -47.15% | |
67 Neutral | $40.01B | 13.59 | 12.77% | 1.19% | -3.54% | -15.86% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
72.45
8.13
12.64%
DHI
DR Horton
146.01
-6.05
-3.98%
LEN
Lennar
84.82
-32.33
-27.60%
NVR
NVR
6,304.81
-1,525.63
-19.48%
PHM
PulteGroup
129.55
9.84
8.22%
TOL
Toll Brothers
151.33
26.42
21.15%
Taylor Morrison Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Berkshire Hathaway Completes Cash Acquisition of Taylor Morrison
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Taylor Morrison Communities, Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, implemented a series of debt and credit agreement amendments in July 2026 to align its capital structure with a change of control tied to a...
M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Taylor Morrison Stockholders Approve Berkshire Hathaway Merger
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation stockholders approved a merger agreement under which WXYZ Merger Sub, a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., will merge with and into Taylor Morrison, with Taylor Morrison surviving...
M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Taylor Morrison Merger Advances Under Berkshire Hathaway Deal
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On May 31, 2026, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation agreed to be acquired by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. through a merger in which a Berkshire subsidiary will combine with Taylor Morrison, leaving the homebuilder as a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshir...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Taylor Morrison in Cash Deal
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 31, 2026, Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Taylor Morrison Home Corporation in an all-cash deal valuing the homebuilder at an enterprise value of about $8.5 billion, or $72.50 per share, a 24% premium to its last closing price. The Tayl...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Taylor Morrison Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting held on May 21, 2026, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation’s stockholders elected eight directors, including Chair and CEO Sheryl D. Palmer, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, reaffirming the existing board leader...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.