Taylor Morrison (TMHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 12.19%
• EPS Growth: 23.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.92
• Shares Outstanding: 100,367,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,104,276
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,043,942
• PEG Ratio: 1.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.66
• 1Y Price Target: $70.60
• Price Target Upside: 5.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $74.00 ▲(10.75%Upside)

Taylor Morrison's strong financial performance and undervaluation are the primary drivers of its favorable stock score. While technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. The earnings call and corporate events provide additional support, though macroeconomic challenges and inventory concerns present risks.

Positive Factors

Customer Segments

Taylor Morrison Home is expected to have resilient demand due to its lower exposure to entry-level buyers and a focus on more affluent customer segments.

Organic Growth

The company is positioned for organic growth after expanding through acquisitions, reducing the need for further M&A or increased land acquisition.

Negative Factors

Market Risks

Risks for Taylor Morrison include soft housing demand, high mortgage rates, Florida exposure, rising land prices, and tariff uncertainty.

Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) is a leading national homebuilder and developer based in the United States. The company operates primarily within the residential construction sector, focusing on building single-family detached and attached homes. Taylor Morrison is known for its diverse portfolio of high-quality homes tailored to a variety of consumer needs and preferences, including first-time, move-up, luxury, and active adult buyers. In addition to homebuilding, the company provides mortgage financing and title services, enhancing its comprehensive customer service offering.

How the Company Makes Money

Taylor Morrison makes money primarily through the design, construction, and sale of residential homes. Its key revenue stream is the sale of single-family homes, which are developed on land owned by the company. Additional revenue is generated through various services offered to homebuyers, including mortgage financing through its subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Home Funding, and title services, which help streamline the home buying process. The company strategically acquires land in desirable locations and develops communities that appeal to a wide range of demographics. Significant partnerships with suppliers and contractors enable Taylor Morrison to manage costs effectively, contributing to its profitability. The company also benefits from its strong brand reputation and its ability to adapt to market trends, which helps maintain steady demand for its homes.

Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Taylor Morrison demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and efficient operational management. The company has a solid balance sheet with low leverage and strong cash flow generation, although a decline in cash reserves needs monitoring.

Income Statement

Taylor Morrison shows strong financial performance with improving gross and net profit margins. The TTM gross profit margin is 24.27%, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin of 10.84% indicates solid profitability. Revenue growth is positive, with a 12.74% increase from 2023 to 2024, and a further 2.4% growth into the TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 14.99% and 15.36%, respectively, supporting strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio of 63.49% suggests strong equity financing. Return on equity stands at 15.22%, showcasing effective use of shareholders' funds. However, a decline in cash reserves needs monitoring, as cash and short-term investments decreased over the period.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a healthy free cash flow growth rate of 123%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.47 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.43 indicate efficient cash flow management. Although financing cash flows are negative, this aligns with debt reduction efforts, which is a positive strategic move.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.17B	7.42B	8.22B	7.50B	6.13B
Gross Profit	1.98B	1.78B	2.09B	1.55B	1.04B
EBITDA	1.25B	1.12B	1.48B	919.52M	509.18M
Net Income	883.31M	768.93M	1.05B	663.03M	243.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.30B	8.67B	8.47B	8.73B	7.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	487.15M	798.57M	725.58M	834.93M	538.14M
Total Debt	2.20B	2.10B	2.58B	3.40B	3.01B
Total Liabilities	3.42B	3.34B	3.82B	4.76B	4.14B
Stockholders Equity	5.87B	5.31B	4.63B	3.93B	3.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	173.75M	772.74M	1.08B	355.45M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	210.08M	806.17M	1.11B	376.65M	1.12B
Investing Cash Flow	-136.44M	-97.19M	-14.88M	-74.26M	-312.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-393.57M	-628.51M	-1.20B	-155.00K	-604.94M

Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 66.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.14, above the 50-day MA of 60.19, and above the 200-day MA of 62.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMHC.

Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVR	79 Outperform	$21.70B	15.18	38.25%	―	8.81%	1.79%
TMHC	78 Outperform	$6.29B	7.23	15.97%	―	12.19%	23.15%
PHM	78 Outperform	$24.29B	9.06	23.05%	0.87%	5.04%	2.07%
TOL	78 Outperform	$11.48B	8.67	18.09%	0.82%	1.59%	-8.04%
LEN	73 Outperform	$28.23B	9.06	13.04%	2.08%	-1.26%	-17.78%
MTH	73 Outperform	$5.03B	7.08	14.58%	2.14%	-0.68%	-7.99%
Sector *	57 Neutral	HK$25.90B	4.13	-2.03%	5.77%	-0.31%	-67.64%

Taylor Morrison Corporate Events

Taylor Morrison Holds 2025 Annual Stockholder Meeting

On May 22, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of stockholders, where nine directors were elected to serve until the 2026 meeting. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation plan and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMHC) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Taylor Morrison stock, see the TMHC Stock Forecast page.