Taylor Morrison (TMHC)
NYSE:TMHC
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Taylor Morrison
(NYSE:TMHC)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(22.03% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/23/26
TMHC scores well on financial performance and valuation: profitability, cash generation, and improved leverage remain supportive, while the low P/E boosts attractiveness. The main moderating factor is the earnings outlook, where reaffirmed guidance and backlog improvement are offset by sharp year-over-year profit declines and margin/incentive pressure. Technicals are positive but somewhat stretched, tempering near-term risk/reward.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Conversion
High trailing free cash flow and FCF nearly matching net income indicate strong earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation supports land investment, share repurchases and buffers cyclical downturns, reducing reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profit & Margin Compression
A ~420bp YoY gross margin decline and roughly halved adjusted net income reflect meaningful profitability pressure. Persistent higher incentives, elevated spec mix and rate-driven affordability constraints could keep margins compressed for multiple quarters, limiting cash flow upside.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Conversion
High trailing free cash flow and FCF nearly matching net income indicate strong earnings quality and internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation supports land investment, share repurchases and buffers cyclical downturns, reducing reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Taylor Morrison (TMHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth-8.99%
EPS Growth-22.26%
CountryUS
Employees3,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.81
Shares Outstanding93,427,650
10 Day Avg. Volume1,756,060
30 Day Avg. Volume1,303,711
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)0.72
P/FCF Ratio7.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.71Price Target Upside10.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)5.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.57B
Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States. The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-...
How the Company Makes Money
Taylor Morrison makes money primarily by building and selling homes. Its largest revenue stream is homebuilding revenue recognized when a home is delivered/closed with the buyer; this reflects the contracted sales price of the home and typically i...
Taylor Morrison Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of operational progress and near‑term challenges. Positive developments include a meaningful backlog rebuild (+23%), a shift toward higher‑margin to‑be‑built sales (to 38% from 28%), strong liquidity ($1.6B), record digital/AI adoption, disciplined land and inventory management (finished specs down 30%), and the reaffirmation of full‑year guidance. Offsetting these positives are material year‑over‑year declines in revenue and profitability (Q1 revenue down from $1.8B to ~$1.3B; adjusted net income and EPS roughly halved versus prior year), margin compression versus last year (down ~420 bps), lower orders (‑14% YoY), and continued incentive and rate pressure that could weigh on near‑term margins. Management emphasized discipline, technology‑led efficiency and a plan to scale community openings to drive reacceleration in 2027, but substantial YoY earnings declines and macro/rate headwinds temper the tone.Positive Updates
Backlog Rebuild and To‑Be‑Built Mix
Backlog increased 23% from year-end to 3,465 homes; to‑be‑built orders rose to 38% of orders (from 28% in Q4), signaling a favorable mix shift toward higher‑margin build‑to‑order sales; finished inventory declined 30% sequentially to 863 homes.
Negative Updates
Year‑Over‑Year Revenue and Profit Declines
Home closings revenue fell to ~ $1.3 billion from $1.8 billion in Q1 2025 due primarily to lower closings volume; adjusted net income declined to $109 million from $226 million year‑over‑year and adjusted EPS fell to $1.12 from $2.19 (~49% decline).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Backlog Rebuild and To‑Be‑Built Mix
Backlog increased 23% from year-end to 3,465 homes; to‑be‑built orders rose to 38% of orders (from 28% in Q4), signaling a favorable mix shift toward higher‑margin build‑to‑order sales; finished inventory declined 30% sequentially to 863 homes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Taylor Morrison reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for roughly 11,000 home closings at an average closing price of $580,000–$590,000, an ending community count of 365–370, SG&A near the mid‑10% range of home‑closings revenue, an effective tax rate of ~25%, approximately $2.0 billion of homebuilding land investment, and ~$400 million of planned share repurchases (implying an average diluted share count of ~95 million for the year). For Q2 the company expects 2,500–2,600 closings at an average closing price of about $575,000, a home‑closings gross margin of at least 20% (excluding inventory charges), an ending community count of ~370, a Q2 effective tax rate of ~25.5% and an average diluted share count of ~95 million.Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.61B | 8.12B | 8.17B | 7.42B | 8.22B | 7.50B |
| Gross Profit | 1.71B | 1.87B | 2.01B | 1.79B | 2.12B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 1.14B | 1.28B | 1.13B | 1.51B | 894.79M |
| Net Income | 672.14M | 782.50M | 883.31M | 768.93M | 1.05B | 663.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.77B | 9.84B | 9.30B | 8.67B | 8.47B | 8.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 652.93M | 851.23M | 487.15M | 798.57M | 724.49M | 832.82M |
| Total Debt | 2.41B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.10B | 2.58B | 3.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.52B | 3.53B | 3.42B | 3.34B | 3.82B | 4.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.25B | 6.31B | 5.87B | 5.31B | 4.63B | 3.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 709.65M | 807.37M | 173.75M | 772.74M | 1.08B | 355.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 751.47M | 847.75M | 210.08M | 806.17M | 1.11B | 376.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.59M | -185.17M | -136.44M | -97.19M | -14.88M | -74.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -326.55M | -298.51M | -393.57M | -628.51M | -1.20B | -155.00K |
Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis
Neutral
60.64
Price Trends
61.69
Negative
61.72
Negative
62.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
53.85
Neutral
60.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 60.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.59, below the 50-day MA of 61.69, and below the 200-day MA of 62.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMHC.
Taylor Morrison Risk Analysis
Taylor Morrison disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Taylor Morrison reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $5.47B | 13.92 | 10.85% | ― | -8.99% | -22.26% | |
75 Outperform | $16.48B | 23.10 | 32.66% | ― | -6.68% | -16.31% | |
72 Outperform | $40.70B | 15.24 | 13.24% | 1.14% | -5.57% | -19.40% | |
71 Outperform | $21.93B | 16.24 | 15.92% | 0.78% | -5.94% | -27.06% | |
69 Neutral | $12.79B | 16.39 | 16.86% | 0.70% | 4.60% | -3.85% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $20.71B | 30.47 | 8.04% | 1.91% | -7.52% | -49.33% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
58.58
-0.36
-0.61%
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Taylor Morrison Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Taylor Morrison Announces Board Streamlining After Director Retirement
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Taylor Morrison director David Merritt notified the company that he would retire from the board effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with the company noting that his departure did not stem from any disagreement ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.