Taylor Morrison (TMHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.81B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 973.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 6.98%
• EPS Growth: 9.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 2.01
• Shares Outstanding: 97,725,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,352,602
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 973,025
• PEG Ratio: 0.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.54
• 1Y Price Target: $74.40
• Price Target Upside: 25.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.90B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(17.67% Upside)

Taylor Morrison's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its high stock score. The company's strategic focus on cost management and innovation, along with a stable technical outlook, further support its positive assessment.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Health

Taylor Morrison's robust financial health, characterized by strong profitability and low leverage, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth and resilience against market fluctuations.

Innovative Digital Initiatives

The introduction of an AI-powered digital assistant reflects Taylor Morrison's commitment to innovation, potentially enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency, supporting long-term competitive advantage.

Liquidity and Financial Flexibility

The new $1 billion revolving credit facility enhances Taylor Morrison's liquidity and financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and operational resilience over the long term.

Negative Factors

Decline in Net Orders

A decline in net orders indicates potential challenges in demand, which could impact future revenue growth and market share if not addressed.

Backlog Reduction

A significant reduction in backlog suggests potential revenue shortfalls in the near future, posing a risk to Taylor Morrison's growth trajectory and financial performance.

Challenging Market Conditions in Texas

Challenging market conditions in Texas, a key region, could hinder Taylor Morrison's sales and profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain market position.

Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public homebuilder in the United States. The company designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities. It also develops and constructs multi-use properties consisting of commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name; and offers title insurance and closing settlement services, as well as financial services. In addition, the company operates under the Taylor Morrison, William Lyon Signature, and Darling Homes brand names in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North and South Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Taylor Morrison generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed homes, which represent its core revenue stream. The company earns money by acquiring land, developing residential communities, and building homes that are then sold to individual buyers. Additionally, TMHC generates revenue from the sale of homes in its active adult and multi-family segments. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors, which help control costs and improve efficiency in the construction process. Furthermore, Taylor Morrison may engage in joint ventures and collaborations with other developers, enhancing its market reach and financial performance.

Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Taylor Morrison demonstrates strong financial health with solid profitability, a stable balance sheet, and improving cash flows. Despite recent challenges in revenue growth, the company maintains efficient operations and a strong capital structure.

Income Statement

Taylor Morrison's income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 24% and a net profit margin above 10% in recent periods. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative in the TTM, indicating a decline in sales. Despite this, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.012 in the TTM, indicating strong financial stability. The return on equity is healthy at 14.24%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is also strong, suggesting a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 18.29% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly below 1, indicating room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.38B	8.17B	7.42B	8.22B	7.50B	6.13B
Gross Profit	2.01B	2.01B	1.79B	2.12B	1.56B	1.06B
EBITDA	1.28B	1.28B	1.13B	1.51B	894.79M	529.26M
Net Income	853.61M	883.31M	768.93M	1.05B	663.03M	243.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.63B	9.30B	8.67B	8.47B	8.73B	7.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	370.59M	487.15M	798.57M	724.49M	832.82M	532.84M
Total Debt	2.26B	2.20B	2.10B	2.58B	3.40B	3.01B
Total Liabilities	3.43B	3.42B	3.34B	3.82B	4.76B	4.14B
Stockholders Equity	6.18B	5.87B	5.31B	4.63B	3.93B	3.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	580.03M	173.75M	772.74M	1.08B	355.45M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	619.33M	210.08M	806.17M	1.11B	376.65M	1.12B
Investing Cash Flow	-148.20M	-136.44M	-97.19M	-14.88M	-74.26M	-312.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-357.51M	-393.57M	-628.51M	-1.20B	-155.00K	-604.94M

Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 59.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 59.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.73, below the 50-day MA of 60.68, and below the 200-day MA of 61.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMHC.

Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TMHC	78 Outperform	$5.81B	7.19	14.31%	―	6.98%	9.74%
TOL	77 Outperform	$13.26B	10.34	16.89%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
NVR	70 Outperform	$20.97B	16.20	34.80%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
PHM	70 Outperform	$23.26B	9.19	21.57%	0.78%	1.76%	-4.24%
DHI	66 Neutral	$42.82B	12.67	14.48%	1.14%	-6.93%	-19.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	59 Neutral	$26.57B	13.17	8.28%	1.91%	-3.78%	-44.21%

Taylor Morrison Corporate Events

Taylor Morrison Appoints Amanda Whalen to Board

On December 10, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation announced the appointment of Amanda Whalen as an independent member of its Board of Directors, effective March 1, 2026. Whalen, who brings over 25 years of finance and strategic leadership experience, is expected to contribute significantly to the company’s focus on long-term growth and digital business model transformation. Her appointment increases the board’s composition from eight to nine members, enhancing the board’s range of skills and experience.

Taylor Morrison Issues $525M in Senior Notes

On November 10, 2025, Taylor Morrison Communities, Inc., a subsidiary of Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, issued $525 million in 5.750% Senior Notes due 2032, which are senior unsecured obligations guaranteed by the company’s subsidiaries. The proceeds from this issuance were partially used to fund a tender offer for the company’s outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2027, with approximately $479.2 million of these notes purchased. Additionally, the company completed the redemption of all its 6.625% Senior Notes due 2027, marking a strategic financial restructuring aimed at optimizing its debt profile.

Taylor Morrison Announces Tender Offer Results

On November 10, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation announced the expiration and results of a cash tender offer by its subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Communities, Inc., for its outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2027. The offer, which commenced on November 3, 2025, saw a significant portion of the notes tendered and accepted for purchase, with payments expected to be made on the same day. The company plans to use proceeds from a new issuance of 5.750% senior notes due 2032 to fund the purchase, alongside cash on hand. This strategic financial maneuver is aimed at optimizing the company’s debt structure and reflects its proactive approach in managing its financial obligations.

Taylor Morrison Announces Cash Tender Offer Pricing

On November 7, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation announced the pricing terms for a cash tender offer by its subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Communities, Inc., for all outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2027. This offer is part of a strategic financial maneuver to manage the company’s debt, with the expectation to use proceeds from a senior notes offering and cash reserves for the purchase. The offer, which is not contingent on a minimum amount of notes being tendered, is set to expire on the same day, with payment expected by November 10, 2025. The company has also issued a conditional notice of redemption for any remaining notes, indicating a proactive approach to financial management.

Taylor Morrison Announces $525M Senior Notes Offering

On November 3, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation announced the pricing of a $525 million senior notes offering by its subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Communities, Inc., with an interest rate of 5.750% due in 2032. The proceeds will be used to manage existing debt obligations, including purchasing and redeeming senior notes due in 2027, and to cover related fees and expenses, thereby potentially improving the company’s financial positioning.

Taylor Morrison Announces $525M Senior Notes Offering

On November 3, 2025, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation announced that its subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Communities, Inc., initiated a private offering of $525 million in senior notes due 2032. The proceeds from this offering, along with cash on hand, will be used to purchase and redeem various outstanding senior notes due 2027, including those issued by William Lyon Homes, Inc., and to cover related fees and expenses. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its financial standing in the market.