Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)
NYSE:TMHC
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Taylor Morrison
(NYSE:TMHC)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$82.00
▲(35.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financials (healthy margins, improved leverage, strong TTM free cash flow) and the announced all-cash acquisition at a premium. Offsets include stretched technical conditions (overbought signals) and a mixed earnings-call picture with material year-over-year revenue, earnings, and margin declines despite reaffirmed guidance.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, high trailing free cash flow relative to net income indicates strong earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This durable cash generation supports land investment, share repurchases, and weathering cyclical slowdowns without reliance on volatile external financing.
Negative Factors
Margin compression
A sustained ~420 bp gross margin decline materially reduces profitability and operating leverage. If elevated incentives and a heavier spec mix persist amid higher mortgage rates, margin recovery could be slow, pressuring long-term returns and free cash flow generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, high trailing free cash flow relative to net income indicates strong earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This durable cash generation supports land investment, share repurchases, and weathering cyclical slowdowns without reliance on volatile external financing.
Read all positive factors
Taylor Morrison (TMHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.2
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-8.99%
EPS Growth-22.26%
CountryUS
Employees3,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.81
Shares Outstanding91,991,290
10 Day Avg. Volume5,376,074
30 Day Avg. Volume3,960,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.72
P/FCF Ratio7.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.90Price Target Upside3.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)5.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.61B
Taylor Morrison Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation functions as a publicly listed residential construction enterprise within the United States. The company's core business involves the design, development, and sale of various housing types, including both single an...
How the Company Makes Money
Taylor Morrison makes money primarily by building and selling homes. Its largest revenue stream is homebuilding revenue recognized when a home is delivered/closed with the buyer; this reflects the contracted sales price of the home and typically i...
Taylor Morrison Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of operational progress and near‑term challenges. Positive developments include a meaningful backlog rebuild (+23%), a shift toward higher‑margin to‑be‑built sales (to 38% from 28%), strong liquidity ($1.6B), record digital/AI adoption, disciplined land and inventory management (finished specs down 30%), and the reaffirmation of full‑year guidance. Offsetting these positives are material year‑over‑year declines in revenue and profitability (Q1 revenue down from $1.8B to ~$1.3B; adjusted net income and EPS roughly halved versus prior year), margin compression versus last year (down ~420 bps), lower orders (‑14% YoY), and continued incentive and rate pressure that could weigh on near‑term margins. Management emphasized discipline, technology‑led efficiency and a plan to scale community openings to drive reacceleration in 2027, but substantial YoY earnings declines and macro/rate headwinds temper the tone.Positive Updates
Backlog Rebuild and To‑Be‑Built Mix
Backlog increased 23% from year-end to 3,465 homes; to‑be‑built orders rose to 38% of orders (from 28% in Q4), signaling a favorable mix shift toward higher‑margin build‑to‑order sales; finished inventory declined 30% sequentially to 863 homes.
Negative Updates
Year‑Over‑Year Revenue and Profit Declines
Home closings revenue fell to ~ $1.3 billion from $1.8 billion in Q1 2025 due primarily to lower closings volume; adjusted net income declined to $109 million from $226 million year‑over‑year and adjusted EPS fell to $1.12 from $2.19 (~49% decline).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Backlog Rebuild and To‑Be‑Built Mix
Backlog increased 23% from year-end to 3,465 homes; to‑be‑built orders rose to 38% of orders (from 28% in Q4), signaling a favorable mix shift toward higher‑margin build‑to‑order sales; finished inventory declined 30% sequentially to 863 homes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Taylor Morrison reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for roughly 11,000 home closings at an average closing price of $580,000–$590,000, an ending community count of 365–370, SG&A near the mid‑10% range of home‑closings revenue, an effective tax rate of ~25%, approximately $2.0 billion of homebuilding land investment, and ~$400 million of planned share repurchases (implying an average diluted share count of ~95 million for the year). For Q2 the company expects 2,500–2,600 closings at an average closing price of about $575,000, a home‑closings gross margin of at least 20% (excluding inventory charges), an ending community count of ~370, a Q2 effective tax rate of ~25.5% and an average diluted share count of ~95 million.Taylor Morrison Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.61B | 8.12B | 8.17B | 7.42B | 8.22B | 7.50B |
| Gross Profit | 1.71B | 1.87B | 2.01B | 1.79B | 2.12B | 1.56B |
| EBITDA | 968.58M | 1.10B | 1.21B | 1.05B | 1.44B | 894.79M |
| Net Income | 672.14M | 782.50M | 883.31M | 768.93M | 1.05B | 663.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.77B | 9.84B | 9.30B | 8.67B | 8.47B | 8.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 652.93M | 851.23M | 487.15M | 798.57M | 724.49M | 832.82M |
| Total Debt | 2.41B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.10B | 2.58B | 3.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.52B | 3.53B | 3.42B | 3.34B | 3.82B | 4.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.25B | 6.29B | 5.87B | 5.31B | 4.63B | 3.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 709.65M | 807.37M | 173.75M | 772.74M | 1.08B | 355.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 751.47M | 847.75M | 210.08M | 806.17M | 1.11B | 376.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.59M | -185.17M | -136.44M | -97.19M | -14.88M | -74.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -326.55M | -298.51M | -393.57M | -628.51M | -1.20B | -155.00K |
Taylor Morrison Technical Analysis
Positive
60.64
Price Trends
62.91
Positive
62.51
Positive
62.63
Positive
Market Momentum
3.15
Negative
73.80
Negative
28.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.70, below the 50-day MA of 62.91, and below the 200-day MA of 62.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.80 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMHC.
Taylor Morrison Risk Analysis
Taylor Morrison disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Taylor Morrison reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Taylor Morrison Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $6.58B | 10.23 | 10.85% | ― | -8.99% | -22.26% | |
74 Outperform | $14.55B | 11.50 | 15.49% | 0.70% | 3.62% | -2.11% | |
72 Outperform | $44.75B | 14.32 | 13.24% | 1.14% | -5.57% | -19.40% | |
71 Outperform | $24.18B | 11.91 | 15.92% | 0.78% | -5.94% | -27.06% | |
67 Neutral | $17.52B | 14.57 | 32.66% | ― | -7.05% | -16.31% | |
62 Neutral | $22.03B | 13.45 | 7.36% | 1.91% | -7.57% | -46.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
71.58
10.72
17.61%
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157.81
30.63
24.08%
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89.73
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-17.39%
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6,490.93
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-11.56%
PHM
PulteGroup
126.96
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22.05%
TOL
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155.67
44.05
39.47%
Taylor Morrison Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Taylor Morrison in Cash Deal
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 31, 2026, Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Taylor Morrison Home Corporation in an all-cash deal valuing the homebuilder at an enterprise value of about $8.5 billion, or $72.50 per share, a 24% premium to its last closing price. The Tayl...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Taylor Morrison Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting held on May 21, 2026, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation’s stockholders elected eight directors, including Chair and CEO Sheryl D. Palmer, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, reaffirming the existing board leader...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Taylor Morrison Announces Board Streamlining After Director Retirement
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Taylor Morrison director David Merritt notified the company that he would retire from the board effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with the company noting that his departure did not stem from any disagreement ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.