Lennar (LEN)
NYSE:LEN
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Lennar
(NYSE:LEN)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$96.00
▲(8.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening recent fundamentals (notably the sharp drop in cash generation and margin compression) and bearish technicals (downtrend with negative momentum). Offsetting these are a strong, conservatively levered balance sheet, reasonable valuation with a supportive dividend, and a cautiously optimistic earnings outlook driven by measurable operational improvements despite ongoing affordability and incentive headwinds.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet & liquidity
Lennar's substantial liquidity, low homebuilding debt-to-capital and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility through housing cycles. This conservatively levered structure supports capital returns, land strategy execution, and ability to withstand near-term cash volatility without forcing asset sales or deep cuts to operations.
Negative Factors
Sharp cash-generation deterioration
A steep drop in operating and free cash flow highlights elevated cash-conversion risk and cyclicality. Lower FCF constrains reinvestment, buybacks and dividend coverage during downturns, and increases sensitivity to near-term working capital swings and pricing-driven cash usage if incentives remain elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet & liquidity
Lennar's substantial liquidity, low homebuilding debt-to-capital and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility through housing cycles. This conservatively levered structure supports capital returns, land strategy execution, and ability to withstand near-term cash volatility without forcing asset sales or deep cuts to operations.
Read all positive factors
Lennar (LEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.87B
Dividend Yield1.91%
Average Volume (3M)3.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.5
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth-3.78%
EPS Growth-44.21%
CountryUS
Employees13,265
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding216,508,270
10 Day Avg. Volume4,043,734
30 Day Avg. Volume3,271,049
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio1.19K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.73Price Target Upside4.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)6.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.02B
Lennar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder primarily under the Lennar brand in the United States. It operates through Homebuilding East, Homebuilding Central, Homebuilding Texas, Homebuilding West, Financial Serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Lennar primarily makes money by building and selling new homes. Revenue is generated when homes are delivered/closed to buyers, with pricing driven by local housing demand, product mix (e.g., entry-level vs. move-up offerings), and incentives/fina...
Lennar Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which areas drive sales and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down revenue from different business segments, providing insight into which areas drive sales and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLennar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a cautiously optimistic tone. Management acknowledged meaningful near-term headwinds (affordability, elevated incentives, macro/geopolitical uncertainty and softer margins) but highlighted numerous tangible operational improvements: faster cycle times, consistent volume discipline, material cost reductions, stronger inventory turns, a deepening asset-light land program, robust liquidity and continued market-share advantages. Management reiterated Q2 guidance and a full-year delivery target of 85,000 homes while emphasizing that Q1 likely represents the margin low point for 2026. Given the scale and consistency of operational and balance-sheet improvements versus the market-driven challenges, the overall message was constructive with optimism that execution will drive recovery when mortgage rates and affordability improve.Positive Updates
Volume and Production Discipline
Started 17,425 homes and sold 18,515 homes in Q1 while matching production to sales pace; ended the quarter with ~3 completed unsold homes per community (slightly above 2-target) and maintained an even-flow production approach.
Negative Updates
Affordability Pressure & High Incentives
Average sales price was $374,000 in Q1 (essentially flat to plan but down ~8% Y/Y) with delivery sales incentives at 14.1% (Q4 was 14.5%); normalized incentive levels are cited as 4%–6%, indicating a large gap that suppresses margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Volume and Production Discipline
Started 17,425 homes and sold 18,515 homes in Q1 while matching production to sales pace; ended the quarter with ~3 completed unsold homes per community (slightly above 2-target) and maintained an even-flow production approach.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lennar’s Q2 2026 guidance called for new orders of 21,000–22,000 homes, deliveries of 20,000–21,000, an average sales price of $370,000–$375,000, and a gross margin of 15.5%–16.0% (with Q1’s 15.2% called the year’s low); SG&A was guided to 8.9%–9.1% (corporate G&A ~1.9% of revenue), a combined homebuilding/JV/land/other loss of about $20 million, Financial Services earnings of $100M–$110M, multifamily earnings up ~$10M, a Q2 tax rate of ~25.5%, a weighted average share count of ~243 million, a foundation contribution of $1,000 per home, and an EPS range of $1.10–$1.40, with a full-year delivery target of 85,000 homes.Lennar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 34.19B | 35.48B | 34.29B | 33.71B | 27.14B |
| Gross Profit | 6.07B | 8.01B | 8.23B | 9.20B | 7.34B |
| EBITDA | 2.96B | 5.32B | 5.33B | 6.12B | 5.93B |
| Net Income | 2.06B | 3.93B | 3.94B | 4.61B | 4.43B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.43B | 41.31B | 39.23B | 37.98B | 33.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.80B | 4.98B | 6.56B | 4.79B | 2.93B |
| Total Debt | 6.32B | 4.45B | 5.14B | 6.36B | 6.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.29B | 13.29B | 12.53B | 13.74B | 12.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.96B | 27.87B | 26.58B | 24.10B | 20.82B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 28.18M | 2.23B | 5.08B | 3.21B | 2.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 216.81M | 2.40B | 5.18B | 3.27B | 2.53B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 221.57M | -302.56M | -176.98M | -128.30M | -105.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.60B | -3.68B | -3.25B | -1.28B | -2.40B |
Lennar Technical Analysis
Negative
88.57
Price Trends
104.92
Negative
110.78
Negative
116.34
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.41
Negative
35.84
Neutral
29.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LEN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.32, below the 50-day MA of 104.92, and below the 200-day MA of 116.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LEN.
Lennar Risk Analysis
Lennar disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lennar reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lennar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $23.02B | 10.46 | 17.51% | 0.78% | 1.76% | -4.24% | |
75 Outperform | $18.66B | 15.79 | 34.29% | ― | 3.61% | -6.94% | |
72 Outperform | $41.06B | 17.70 | 13.81% | 1.14% | -6.93% | -19.41% | |
69 Neutral | $13.05B | 16.39 | 16.86% | 0.70% | 1.11% | -10.03% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $3.20B | 29.80 | 8.64% | 1.76% | -10.01% | -27.81% | |
57 Neutral | $21.87B | 30.47 | 8.04% | 1.91% | -3.78% | -44.21% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LEN
Lennar
88.57
-12.58
-12.44%
DHI
DR Horton
141.72
27.96
24.58%
KBH
KB Home
51.34
0.24
0.47%
NVR
NVR
6,715.45
15.45
0.23%
PHM
PulteGroup
119.83
28.54
31.26%
TOL
Toll Brothers
137.81
48.08
53.58%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.