DR Horton (DHI)
NYSE:DHI
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DR Horton
(NYSE:DHI)
Select Model
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$154.00
▲(11.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial durability (low leverage and strong free cash flow) and a reasonable valuation. It is tempered by a cooling TTM revenue/margin profile and earnings-call commentary pointing to continued incentive pressure and near-term margin risk, while technical signals remain broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
DR Horton’s low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility through housing cycles. A debt-to-equity near 0.23 reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports sustained capital returns and strategic land investments, and helps absorb demand swings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Incentives Pressure
Sustained higher buyer incentives, including rate buy-downs, structurally compress gross margins and reduce return per home. Because incentives are tied to mortgage rates and demand, elevated incentive levels can persist for multiple quarters, limiting margin recovery and pressuring pretax returns and capital ROI.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
DR Horton’s low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility through housing cycles. A debt-to-equity near 0.23 reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports sustained capital returns and strategic land investments, and helps absorb demand swings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
DR Horton (DHI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$39.89B
Dividend Yield1.14%
Average Volume (3M)2.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth-6.93%
EPS Growth-19.41%
CountryUS
Employees14,766
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.03
Shares Outstanding289,703,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,958,456
30 Day Avg. Volume2,660,506
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.75
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio15.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$160.15Price Target Upside16.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)10.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.72B
DR Horton Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential h...
How the Company Makes Money
D.R. Horton makes money primarily by selling newly constructed homes to homebuyers. Revenue is generated when the company closes home sales, which typically includes the home and underlying lot (when owned) or a home built on controlled/optioned l...
DR Horton Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the profitability of each business segment before tax, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows the profitability of each business segment before tax, highlighting which areas are driving earnings and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDR Horton Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced / Neutral. The call presented several notable operational and financial strengths — strong cash generation, disciplined capital returns, robust lot supply, improving cycle times, and a 3% increase in net sales orders — which underscore the company's resilient platform. Offsetting these positives were meaningful near-term headwinds: EPS declined ~22% YoY, home closings and home sales revenues were down YoY, and margins are under pressure due to elevated incentives (with Q2 gross margin guidance at 19%–19.5%). Management emphasized discipline, liquidity ($6.6B), and targeted growth, but elevated incentives and lower average prices create margin risk in the near term. Overall, highlights and lowlights are relatively balanced.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Pretax Margin
Consolidated pretax income of $798 million on $6.9 billion of revenues with a consolidated pretax profit margin of 11.6% for Q1 FY2026.
Negative Updates
Decline in EPS and Net Income Pressure
Q1 GAAP diluted EPS decreased to $2.03 from $2.61 in the prior-year quarter (down ~22%). Net income was $595 million on consolidated revenues of $6.9 billion, reflecting margin and volume pressures.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Pretax Margin
Consolidated pretax income of $798 million on $6.9 billion of revenues with a consolidated pretax profit margin of 11.6% for Q1 FY2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
D.R. Horton guided Q2 consolidated revenues of $7.3–$7.8 billion, homebuilding closings of 19,700–20,200 homes, a home‑sales gross margin of 19.0%–19.5% and a consolidated pretax profit margin of 10.6%–11.1%; for fiscal 2026 they reiterated consolidated revenues of about $33.5–$35.0 billion and homebuilding closings of 86,000–88,000, an expected tax rate of ~24.5%, operating cash flow of at least $3.0 billion, roughly $2.5 billion of share repurchases and about $500 million of dividends, while noting starts should be higher in Q2 than Q1, incentives are expected to remain elevated (dependent on demand and mortgage rates), and they plan to maintain leverage around ~20% (with $600 million of senior notes maturing in the next 12 months and ~$6.6 billion of consolidated liquidity at quarter end).DR Horton Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.52B | 34.25B | 36.80B | 35.46B | 33.48B | 27.77B |
| Gross Profit | 7.80B | 8.12B | 9.54B | 9.35B | 10.50B | 7.88B |
| EBITDA | 4.46B | 4.84B | 6.37B | 6.41B | 7.71B | 5.43B |
| Net Income | 3.34B | 3.59B | 4.76B | 4.75B | 5.86B | 4.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 34.64B | 35.47B | 36.10B | 32.58B | 30.35B | 24.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.51B | 2.99B | 4.52B | 3.87B | 2.54B | 3.21B |
| Total Debt | 5.55B | 6.03B | 5.97B | 5.14B | 6.11B | 5.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.08B | 10.73B | 10.28B | 9.44B | 10.57B | 8.80B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.00B | 24.19B | 25.31B | 22.70B | 19.40B | 14.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.48B | 3.28B | 2.02B | 4.16B | 413.60M | 267.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.63B | 3.42B | 2.19B | 4.30B | 561.80M | 534.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -227.80M | -168.70M | -190.60M | -310.20M | -414.90M | -252.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.92B | -4.76B | -1.36B | -2.67B | -811.20M | -85.10M |
DR Horton Technical Analysis
Negative
137.69
Price Trends
152.60
Negative
150.54
Negative
151.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.10
Positive
36.33
Neutral
52.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DHI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 137.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.94, below the 50-day MA of 152.60, and below the 200-day MA of 151.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DHI.
DR Horton Risk Analysis
DR Horton disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. DR Horton reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
DR Horton Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $5.73B | 8.21 | 12.83% | ― | 6.98% | 9.74% | |
76 Outperform | $22.71B | 10.46 | 17.51% | 0.78% | 1.76% | -4.24% | |
75 Outperform | $18.31B | 15.79 | 34.29% | ― | 3.61% | -6.94% | |
73 Outperform | $39.89B | 17.70 | 13.81% | 1.14% | -6.93% | -19.41% | |
69 Neutral | $12.97B | 16.39 | 16.86% | 0.70% | 1.11% | -10.03% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $22.71B | 30.47 | 8.04% | 1.91% | -3.78% | -44.21% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DHI
DR Horton
137.69
9.13
7.10%
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DR Horton Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
D.R. Horton Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 15, 2026, D.R. Horton, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected eight director nominees to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, indicating continued support for the company’s existing board composit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.