NVR (NVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 3.61%
• EPS Growth: -6.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 112.33
• Shares Outstanding: 2,839,432
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 21,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,925
• PEG Ratio: 1.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.73
• 1Y Price Target: $8,570.50
• Price Target Upside: 16.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $8,292.00 ▲(12.27% Upside)

NVR's strong financial performance, characterized by robust profitability and a solid balance sheet, is the primary driver of its stock score. Technical analysis and valuation also contribute positively, indicating a stable outlook. The recent board appointment is a positive corporate event, though it does not directly impact the score calculation.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Health

NVR's conservative leverage and high equity ratio indicate financial stability and resilience, providing flexibility for future investments.

Cash Generation Ability

Strong cash flow generation supports NVR's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, enhancing long-term business sustainability.

Management Quality

The addition of an experienced leader like George R. Oliver is expected to strengthen governance and strategic oversight, benefiting NVR's long-term direction.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue indicates potential market challenges, which could hinder NVR's growth prospects if not addressed effectively.

Earnings Pressure

A decrease in net profit margin suggests increased cost pressures or competitive pricing, potentially impacting profitability if trends continue.

EPS Growth Decline

Negative EPS growth reflects earnings challenges, which could affect investor confidence and the company's ability to reinvest in growth.

NVR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

NVR generates revenue primarily through the sale of homes, which is its core business. The company constructs and sells new homes, with revenue recognized upon the closing of each sale. In addition to home sales, NVR also earns income through its mortgage banking segment. NVR Mortgage generates revenue from the origination of mortgage loans, including fees associated with processing and closing loans. Key revenue streams include the volume of homes sold, the average selling price of homes, and the volume of mortgage loans originated. NVR's strategic focus on efficient construction processes and customer satisfaction, coupled with its strong market presence, contributes significantly to its earnings. The company also benefits from partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors, which help control costs and enhance operational efficiency.

NVR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NVR demonstrates strong profitability and a solid balance sheet with low leverage and high return on equity. While revenue growth has faced challenges recently, the company maintains robust margins and cash flow generation, positioning it well for future stability and potential growth in the residential construction industry.

Income Statement

NVR's income statement shows a strong profitability profile with a net profit margin of 13.9% TTM, although slightly down from 15.95% in the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 23.59% TTM. However, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.2% TTM, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 18.37% and 18.53% TTM, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26 TTM, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity is impressive at 51.77% TTM, showcasing strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 65.71%, suggesting a stable capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 6.88% TTM, recovering from a decline in the previous period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.27 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, demonstrating effective conversion of earnings into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.31B	10.54B	9.53B	10.54B	8.96B	7.55B
Gross Profit	2.43B	2.69B	2.48B	2.88B	2.20B	1.61B
EBITDA	1.92B	2.16B	1.97B	2.31B	1.66B	1.17B
Net Income	1.43B	1.68B	1.59B	1.73B	1.24B	901.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.04B	6.38B	6.60B	5.66B	5.83B	5.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.97B	2.61B	3.16B	2.52B	2.57B	2.78B
Total Debt	1.03B	1.02B	1.01B	1.01B	1.59B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	2.07B	2.17B	2.24B	2.15B	2.83B	2.67B
Stockholders Equity	3.97B	4.21B	4.36B	3.51B	3.00B	3.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.29B	1.35B	1.47B	1.85B	1.22B	909.15M
Operating Cash Flow	1.32B	1.37B	1.50B	1.87B	1.24B	925.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-64.13M	-26.55M	-24.10M	-27.43M	-18.18M	-3.93M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.80B	-1.90B	-832.97M	-1.91B	-1.40B	727.64M

NVR Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7385.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7385.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7398.97, above the 50-day MA of 7358.17, and below the 200-day MA of 7522.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -47.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NVR.

NVR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOL	75 Outperform	$12.88B	10.77	16.89%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
TMHC	71 Outperform	$6.39B	7.31	14.31%	―	6.98%	9.74%
NVR	70 Outperform	$20.97B	16.21	34.80%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
PHM	70 Outperform	$25.77B	10.18	21.57%	0.78%	1.76%	-4.24%
DHI	66 Neutral	$42.61B	13.60	14.48%	1.14%	-6.93%	-19.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	59 Neutral	$27.67B	14.94	8.28%	1.91%	-3.78%	-44.21%