NVR (NVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.02B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 27.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.36
• Revenue Growth: 3.61%
• EPS Growth: -6.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 121.54
• Shares Outstanding: 2,793,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,328
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,858
• PEG Ratio: -1.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.37
• 1Y Price Target: $8,205.50
• Price Target Upside: 10.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 407.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.77B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $8,868.00 ▲(18.92% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high profitability/ROE, improving leverage, solid cash conversion) and supportive technical momentum (above key moving averages with a positive MACD). This is tempered by recent margin and free-cash-flow weakening and only mid-range valuation support given a ~18 P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High ROE and strong profitability

Sustained, very high ROE indicates the business earns strong returns on equity capital. Over 2–6 months this supports durable earnings power, funds internal reinvestment and shareholder returns, and signals an advantaged operating model versus typical homebuilders.

Improving leverage and conservative balance sheet

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio strengthens financial flexibility, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. This enduring improvement supports capacity to fund operations, pursue buybacks or withstand downturns without eroding core operations.

Consistent operating cash conversion

Reliable cash conversion means core homebuilding and mortgage operations generate real cash to fund working capital, debt service and capital allocation. Over months this underpins sustainable capital returns and lowers reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

Recent margin compression and profit decline

Falling margins and lower profits amid revenue growth suggest rising unit costs, mix shifts or margin pressure. Persisting compression would erode the company's high-ROE advantage, reduce free cash flow and limit long-term reinvestment or shareholder distributions.

Weakened free cash flow momentum

A multi-year decline in FCF reduces internal funding for operations, buybacks and mortgage lending. If the trend continues, the company may face tougher choices on capex, dividend policy or debt financing, damaging strategic optionality.

High exposure to housing-cycle volatility

Persistent sensitivity to the housing cycle makes earnings and cash flow inherently volatile. For a capital-intensive homebuilder, cyclical swings can quickly reverse margins and returns, complicating long-term planning and increasing downside risk during downturns.

NVR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

NVR generates revenue primarily through the sale of homes, which is its core business. The company constructs and sells new homes, with revenue recognized upon the closing of each sale. In addition to home sales, NVR also earns income through its mortgage banking segment. NVR Mortgage generates revenue from the origination of mortgage loans, including fees associated with processing and closing loans. Key revenue streams include the volume of homes sold, the average selling price of homes, and the volume of mortgage loans originated. NVR's strategic focus on efficient construction processes and customer satisfaction, coupled with its strong market presence, contributes significantly to its earnings. The company also benefits from partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors, which help control costs and enhance operational efficiency.

NVR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year profitability, very high ROE, conservative and improving leverage, and solid cash conversion. The main drag is recent deterioration: 2025 profit and margins fell despite 13.3% revenue growth, and free cash flow declined meaningfully, signaling a tougher operating environment.

Income Statement

NVR shows strong profitability for a homebuilder, with consistently healthy gross and net margins across 2020–2025. However, performance has softened recently: 2025 revenue rose 13.3% but profits declined versus 2024, with net margin compressing from ~16.0% (2024) to ~13.0% (2025) and operating margin also stepping down. Revenue has been somewhat cyclical (notably a decline in 2023), but the multi-year earnings base remains solid.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled and trending better over time. Debt-to-equity improved meaningfully from ~0.53 (2021) to ~0.31 (2025), indicating a stronger capital position versus earlier years. Returns on equity are very high (generally ~29%–49% historically and ~34.7% in 2025), signaling strong profitability, though it also means results are sensitive to housing-cycle swings and recent profit compression.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow has consistently met or exceeded net income (about 1.19x in 2024–2025), and free cash flow closely tracks earnings (roughly ~0.98x of net income). The main weakness is momentum—free cash flow declined in 2023 and 2024 and fell more sharply in 2025 (down ~15.1%), which aligns with the recent margin and profit pressure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.32B	10.54B	9.53B	10.54B	8.96B
Gross Profit	2.37B	2.69B	2.48B	2.88B	2.20B
EBITDA	1.79B	2.16B	1.97B	2.31B	1.66B
Net Income	1.34B	1.68B	1.59B	1.73B	1.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.86B	6.38B	6.60B	5.66B	5.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.96B	2.61B	3.16B	2.52B	2.57B
Total Debt	1.20B	1.02B	1.01B	1.01B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	1.99B	2.17B	2.24B	2.15B	2.83B
Stockholders Equity	3.86B	4.21B	4.36B	3.51B	3.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.10B	1.35B	1.47B	1.85B	1.22B
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	1.37B	1.50B	1.87B	1.24B
Investing Cash Flow	-71.21M	-26.55M	-24.10M	-27.43M	-18.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-1.90B	-832.97M	-1.91B	-1.40B

NVR Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7456.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7456.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7740.23, below the 50-day MA of 7582.73, and below the 200-day MA of 7606.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVR.

NVR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOL	79 Outperform	$15.16B	11.43	17.03%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
TMHC	77 Outperform	$6.59B	8.64	12.87%	―	6.98%	9.74%
PHM	76 Outperform	$27.30B	12.78	17.67%	0.78%	1.76%	-4.24%
NVR	75 Outperform	$21.02B	17.21	33.18%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
DHI	73 Outperform	$48.45B	15.19	13.63%	1.14%	-6.93%	-19.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	60 Neutral	$29.71B	15.19	8.26%	1.91%	-3.78%	-44.21%