Toll Brothers (TOL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.47B
• Dividend Yield: 0.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 1.11%
• EPS Growth: -10.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 4.58
• Shares Outstanding: 96,383,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,940,818
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,276,994
• PEG Ratio: -0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.52
• 1Y Price Target: $144.58
• Price Target Upside: 3.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.50B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $159.00 ▲(13.85% Upside)

Toll Brothers' strong financial performance and positive technical indicators are the primary drivers of the stock's score. The company's effective cost management and strategic growth initiatives further bolster its outlook. While valuation metrics are reasonable, the modest dividend yield suggests a focus on growth. Challenges noted in the earnings call, such as delayed transactions, slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Record revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategy, supporting long-term financial stability and expansion.

Cash Flow Management

Robust cash flow management enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns, crucial for sustainable growth.

Community Count Expansion

Expanding community count reflects strategic growth initiatives, enhancing market presence and potential revenue streams in the long term.

Negative Factors

Decline in Net Agreements

A decline in net agreements suggests potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact future revenue growth.

Backlog Value Decrease

A reduced backlog value indicates a potential slowdown in future revenue, affecting long-term growth prospects and financial stability.

Delayed Business Transactions

Delays in significant transactions can affect cash flow and earnings, potentially hindering strategic initiatives and financial performance.

Toll Brothers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs; develops and sells land; and develops, operates, and rents apartments, as well as provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, it owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. It has a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to develop new rental apartment communities in the United States markets. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Toll Brothers generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential properties. The company builds homes in various communities and markets, often selling directly to consumers. Its revenue model is largely driven by home sales, which includes both new constructions and the sale of homes in existing communities. Additionally, Toll Brothers earns income from the development and sale of land, as well as from its various subsidiaries that offer related services, such as mortgage financing and insurance. Strategic partnerships with land developers, suppliers, and local governments also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations can enhance project feasibility and profitability. The company's ability to maintain strong demand in luxury housing markets and effectively manage construction and operational costs plays a critical role in its financial performance.

Toll Brothers Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Toll Brothers exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, solid profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company has improved its leverage position and maintains a healthy return on equity. Minor fluctuations in margins and cash flow growth are noted, but the overall trajectory remains positive.

Income Statement

Toll Brothers has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from 2020 to 2025. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a gross profit margin consistently above 20% and a net profit margin improving to over 12% in 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also show robust performance, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, there was a slight decline in margins in 2025 compared to 2024, which could be a point of concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating improved leverage management. The return on equity remains strong, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets. However, the company should continue to monitor its debt levels to ensure they remain manageable, especially in a potentially volatile construction market.

Cash Flow

Toll Brothers has shown positive cash flow trends, with free cash flow growth rebounding in 2025 after a decline in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is consistently high, reflecting the company's ability to convert earnings into cash effectively. Continued focus on cash flow management will be crucial to support future growth and investment opportunities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.88B	10.97B	10.85B	9.99B	10.28B	8.79B
Gross Profit	2.81B	2.85B	3.02B	2.63B	2.49B	1.94B
EBITDA	1.87B	1.87B	2.12B	1.80B	1.59B	1.10B
Net Income	1.38B	1.35B	1.57B	1.37B	1.29B	833.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.40B	14.52B	13.37B	12.53B	12.29B	11.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	852.31M	1.26B	1.30B	1.30B	1.35B	1.64B
Total Debt	3.07B	2.79B	2.96B	2.98B	3.47B	3.80B
Total Liabilities	6.29B	6.23B	5.68B	5.71B	6.27B	6.20B
Stockholders Equity	8.10B	8.27B	7.67B	6.80B	6.01B	5.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	918.34M	1.03B	936.52M	1.19B	915.09M	1.24B
Operating Cash Flow	994.89M	1.11B	1.01B	1.27B	986.82M	1.30B
Investing Cash Flow	-291.75M	-310.03M	-167.62M	-150.60M	-153.18M	-4.24M
Financing Cash Flow	-728.12M	-833.88M	-816.46M	-1.17B	-1.12B	-1.01B

Toll Brothers Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 139.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 139.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.34, above the 50-day MA of 135.29, and above the 200-day MA of 121.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TOL.

Toll Brothers Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TMHC	78 Outperform	$5.84B	7.20	14.31%	―	6.98%	9.74%
TOL	77 Outperform	$13.47B	10.36	16.89%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
NVR	70 Outperform	$21.01B	16.23	34.80%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
PHM	70 Outperform	$23.34B	9.22	21.57%	0.77%	1.76%	-4.24%
DHI	66 Neutral	$42.99B	12.72	14.48%	1.13%	-6.93%	-19.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	59 Neutral	$27.24B	13.53	8.28%	1.85%	-3.78%	-44.21%

Toll Brothers Corporate Events

Kennedy Wilson to Acquire Toll Brothers’ Apartment Platform

On September 18, 2025, Kennedy Wilson, a global real estate investment company, announced its agreement to acquire Toll Brothers‘ Apartment Living platform for $347 million. This acquisition includes interests in a portfolio of apartment and student housing properties, which will significantly enhance Kennedy Wilson’s investment management platform by adding over $5 billion in assets under management. The transaction, expected to close in October 2025, will allow Toll Brothers to focus on its core homebuilding business while creating a new long-term relationship between the two companies for future investment opportunities in rental and for-sale housing.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOL) stock is a Buy with a $155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toll Brothers stock, see the TOL Stock Forecast page.

Toll Brothers Inc. Reports Strong Earnings Amid Challenges

Toll Brothers Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a strong financial performance and strategic positioning despite facing market challenges. The company achieved record revenues and maintained a healthy backlog with a low cancellation rate. However, concerns were raised about declining sales volumes and increased incentives impacting margins. Overall, Toll Brothers appears well-positioned for future growth, supported by strong community count expansion and a solid financial foundation.

Toll Brothers Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Toll Brothers, Inc., a leading builder of luxury homes in the United States, operates in the homebuilding sector, offering a range of services including architectural, engineering, and mortgage solutions. The company is known for its focus on luxury and high-end residential properties across various states.