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PulteGroup
(NYSE:PHM)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$153.00
▲(20.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
PHM scores well primarily due to strong financial quality (low leverage, solid margins, and meaningful free cash flow) and constructive reaffirmed guidance with substantial shareholder returns. The score is tempered by signs of cyclical softening (revenue/margin pressure and elevated incentives) and technically overbought momentum indicators that can increase near-term volatility; valuation is reasonable but supported less by dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and strong equity growth give Pulte durable financial flexibility. Conservatively financed operations and net-debt near zero support sustained land investment, buybacks and dividend payouts during housing cycles, lowering risk of forced asset sales or capital rationing.
Negative Factors
Elevated incentives compressing margins
Higher incentives materially erode gross margins and are a structural drag until spec exposure and pricing dynamics normalize. Sustained elevated incentives reduce per-home profitability and lengthen the time needed to restore historical margin levels even if volumes recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and strong equity growth give Pulte durable financial flexibility. Conservatively financed operations and net-debt near zero support sustained land investment, buybacks and dividend payouts during housing cycles, lowering risk of forced asset sales or capital rationing.
Read all positive factors
PulteGroup Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and where the company may focus its strategic efforts.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and where the company may focus its strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPulteGroup (PHM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.46B
Dividend Yield0.78%
Average Volume (3M)1.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-5.94%
EPS Growth-27.06%
CountryUS
Employees6,793
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.42
Shares Outstanding190,486,360
10 Day Avg. Volume1,804,405
30 Day Avg. Volume1,718,462
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.34
P/FCF Ratio13.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$139.38Price Target Upside10.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)10
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.38B
PulteGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PulteGroup, Inc. operates as a leading American homebuilder, primarily focusing on acquiring and developing land for residential purposes, followed by the construction of various types of homes across the United States. Its diverse portfolio encom...
How the Company Makes Money
PulteGroup makes money primarily by selling newly constructed homes and related housing products to homebuyers. The core revenue stream is home sale revenue, which is generally recognized at the point a home is closed and title transfers to the bu...
PulteGroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a balanced but overall constructive picture: management demonstrated strong operational discipline (reduced finished spec inventory, progress toward higher build-to-order mix), maintained a substantial land pipeline, preserved strong liquidity (net debt effectively zero) and prioritized shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. Offsetting these positives were near-term margin pressures driven by elevated incentives (10.9% of sales price), year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS, weaker Financial Services results, and some remaining spec exposure and land impairments. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and communicated a path for margin recovery in the back half of the year.Positive Updates
Strong liquidity, low net leverage and capital returns
Ended Q1 with $1.8 billion in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio effectively zero; repurchased 2.4 million shares for $308 million in Q1 and announced an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization (total availability $2.1 billion); returned $360 million to shareholders in the quarter through repurchases and dividends.
Negative Updates
Revenue and earnings decline year-over-year
Home sale revenues fell to $3.3 billion in Q1 from $3.7 billion a year ago (down ~10.8% in dollars); net income declined to $347 million (Q1 2026) from $523 million (Q1 2025); diluted EPS decreased to $1.79 from $2.57 (a decline of ~30%).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong liquidity, low net leverage and capital returns
Ended Q1 with $1.8 billion in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio effectively zero; repurchased 2.4 million shares for $308 million in Q1 and announced an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization (total availability $2.1 billion); returned $360 million to shareholders in the quarter through repurchases and dividends.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PulteGroup reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of 28,500–29,000 closings and ASP of $550,000–$560,000, with Q2 closings pegged at 6,700–7,100 and Q2 ASP $540,000–$550,000; they expect Q2 gross margin to be the low point at 24.1%–24.4% with full-year gross margin guided to 24.5%–25% (Q1 was 24.4%), homebuilding SG&A targeted at 9.5%–9.7% of home sale revenues for the year, an expected effective tax rate of ~24.5%, and incentives elevated (Q1 incentives were 10.9% of gross sales price). Operational and capital assumptions include 3%–5% year-over-year community count growth in remaining months, $5.4 billion of 2026 land acquisition and development spend (they invested $1.3B in Q1), roughly $1 billion of expected 2026 cash flow generation assuming that land spend, 229,000 lots controlled (≈35,000 owned/finished), Q1 backlog of 10,427 homes ($6.5B), 14,090 homes in production (6,349 specs, specs = 45% of WIP; 1,515 finished specs ≈ 1–1.5 finished specs per community target), and continued share repurchase capacity (Q1 repurchases $308M; additional $1.5B authorization bringing availability to $2.1B).PulteGroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.83B | 17.31B | 17.95B | 16.06B | 16.00B | 13.74B |
| Gross Profit | 4.39B | 4.57B | 5.22B | 4.72B | 4.83B | 3.78B |
| EBITDA | 2.79B | 3.02B | 4.10B | 3.53B | 3.51B | 2.58B |
| Net Income | 2.04B | 2.22B | 3.08B | 2.60B | 2.62B | 1.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.20B | 18.05B | 17.36B | 16.09B | 14.80B | 13.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.32B | 2.01B | 1.65B | 1.85B | 1.09B | 1.83B |
| Total Debt | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.34B | 2.62B | 2.81B | 2.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.24B | 5.06B | 5.24B | 5.70B | 5.88B | 5.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.95B | 12.99B | 12.12B | 10.38B | 8.91B | 7.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.64B | 1.75B | 1.56B | 2.10B | 555.80M | 931.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.74B | 1.87B | 1.68B | 2.20B | 668.47M | 1.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.72M | -80.42M | -94.48M | -129.09M | -171.74M | -124.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -963.74M | -1.44B | -1.78B | -1.31B | -1.24B | -1.68B |
PulteGroup Technical Analysis
Positive
126.53
Price Trends
121.80
Positive
123.89
Positive
124.03
Positive
Market Momentum
4.16
Negative
57.41
Neutral
51.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PHM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 126.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.66, above the 50-day MA of 121.80, and above the 200-day MA of 124.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PHM.
PulteGroup Risk Analysis
PulteGroup disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PulteGroup reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PulteGroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.61B | 10.55 | 10.85% | ― | -8.99% | -22.26% | |
75 Outperform | $25.46B | 12.61 | 15.92% | 0.78% | -5.94% | -27.06% | |
74 Outperform | $14.69B | 11.65 | 15.49% | 0.70% | 3.62% | -2.11% | |
72 Outperform | $44.97B | 14.65 | 13.24% | 1.14% | -5.57% | -19.40% | |
69 Neutral | $21.19B | 13.72 | 7.36% | 1.91% | -7.47% | -47.15% | |
67 Neutral | $18.22B | 15.45 | 32.66% | ― | -7.05% | -16.31% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PHM
PulteGroup
131.38
23.36
21.63%
DHI
DR Horton
156.88
27.02
20.81%
LEN
Lennar
87.65
-21.24
-19.50%
NVR
NVR
6,693.66
-824.71
-10.97%
TOL
Toll Brothers
155.13
39.03
33.61%
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
71.85
9.29
14.85%
PulteGroup Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
PulteGroup Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 1, 2026
PulteGroup shareholders convened for the 2026 Annual Meeting on April 29, 2026, with 174,052,310 common shares present or represented by proxy. All eleven board nominees were elected to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity i...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
PulteGroup Reports Lower Q1 Earnings Amid Housing Headwinds
Negative
Apr 23, 2026
PulteGroup reported first quarter 2026 results on April 23, with net income falling to $347 million, or $1.79 per share, from $523 million, or $2.57 per share, a year earlier as home sale revenues declined 12% to $3.3 billion. The builder saw a 7%...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.