Pultegroup (PHM)
NYSE:PHM
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PulteGroup
(NYSE:PHM)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$135.00
▲(6.69% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (strong profitability versus peers historically, low leverage, and robust free cash flow), tempered by cyclical normalization (declining revenue and margin pressure) and uneven cash conversion. Technicals are currently a headwind with the stock trading below key moving averages. Valuation is reasonable but not a clear bargain, and the latest earnings call supports a cautiously positive outlook with reaffirmed guidance but elevated incentives and near-term margin pressure.
Positive Factors
Low leverage and strong balance sheet
Very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.18) and a growing equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued land investment, opportunistic buybacks, and resilience through housing cycles, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated incentives compress margins
Higher incentives (10.9% of price) materially erode gross margins and indicate competitive pricing pressure or weaker demand. Unless incentives normalize, margin recovery will be constrained and long-term profitability could remain below historical peaks despite cost improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage and strong balance sheet
Very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.18) and a growing equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This supports continued land investment, opportunistic buybacks, and resilience through housing cycles, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
PulteGroup Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and where the company may focus its strategic efforts.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and where the company may focus its strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPulteGroup (PHM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.18B
Dividend Yield0.78%
Average Volume (3M)1.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-5.94%
EPS Growth-27.06%
CountryUS
Employees6,793
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.42
Shares Outstanding190,486,360
10 Day Avg. Volume1,952,670
30 Day Avg. Volume1,914,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.34
P/FCF Ratio13.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$133.89Price Target Upside5.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)10
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.34B
PulteGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. The company also offers various...
How the Company Makes Money
PulteGroup primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes and related upgrades to homebuyers. Its largest revenue stream is Homebuilding revenue, which is recognized when a home sale closes (typically upon delivery/closing), and is influ...
PulteGroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a balanced but overall constructive picture: management demonstrated strong operational discipline (reduced finished spec inventory, progress toward higher build-to-order mix), maintained a substantial land pipeline, preserved strong liquidity (net debt effectively zero) and prioritized shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends. Offsetting these positives were near-term margin pressures driven by elevated incentives (10.9% of sales price), year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS, weaker Financial Services results, and some remaining spec exposure and land impairments. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and communicated a path for margin recovery in the back half of the year.Positive Updates
Strong liquidity, low net leverage and capital returns
Ended Q1 with $1.8 billion in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio effectively zero; repurchased 2.4 million shares for $308 million in Q1 and announced an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization (total availability $2.1 billion); returned $360 million to shareholders in the quarter through repurchases and dividends.
Negative Updates
Revenue and earnings decline year-over-year
Home sale revenues fell to $3.3 billion in Q1 from $3.7 billion a year ago (down ~10.8% in dollars); net income declined to $347 million (Q1 2026) from $523 million (Q1 2025); diluted EPS decreased to $1.79 from $2.57 (a decline of ~30%).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong liquidity, low net leverage and capital returns
Ended Q1 with $1.8 billion in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio effectively zero; repurchased 2.4 million shares for $308 million in Q1 and announced an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization (total availability $2.1 billion); returned $360 million to shareholders in the quarter through repurchases and dividends.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PulteGroup reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of 28,500–29,000 closings and ASP of $550,000–$560,000, with Q2 closings pegged at 6,700–7,100 and Q2 ASP $540,000–$550,000; they expect Q2 gross margin to be the low point at 24.1%–24.4% with full-year gross margin guided to 24.5%–25% (Q1 was 24.4%), homebuilding SG&A targeted at 9.5%–9.7% of home sale revenues for the year, an expected effective tax rate of ~24.5%, and incentives elevated (Q1 incentives were 10.9% of gross sales price). Operational and capital assumptions include 3%–5% year-over-year community count growth in remaining months, $5.4 billion of 2026 land acquisition and development spend (they invested $1.3B in Q1), roughly $1 billion of expected 2026 cash flow generation assuming that land spend, 229,000 lots controlled (≈35,000 owned/finished), Q1 backlog of 10,427 homes ($6.5B), 14,090 homes in production (6,349 specs, specs = 45% of WIP; 1,515 finished specs ≈ 1–1.5 finished specs per community target), and continued share repurchase capacity (Q1 repurchases $308M; additional $1.5B authorization bringing availability to $2.1B).PulteGroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.83B | 17.31B | 17.95B | 16.06B | 16.00B | 13.74B |
| Gross Profit | 4.39B | 4.57B | 5.22B | 4.72B | 4.83B | 3.78B |
| EBITDA | 2.78B | 3.02B | 4.10B | 3.53B | 3.51B | 2.58B |
| Net Income | 2.04B | 2.22B | 3.08B | 2.60B | 2.62B | 1.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.20B | 18.05B | 17.36B | 16.09B | 14.80B | 13.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.32B | 2.01B | 1.65B | 1.85B | 1.09B | 1.83B |
| Total Debt | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.34B | 2.62B | 2.81B | 2.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.24B | 5.06B | 5.24B | 5.70B | 5.88B | 5.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.95B | 12.99B | 12.12B | 10.38B | 8.91B | 7.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.64B | 1.75B | 1.56B | 2.10B | 555.80M | 931.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.74B | 1.87B | 1.68B | 2.20B | 668.47M | 1.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.72M | -80.42M | -94.48M | -129.09M | -171.74M | -124.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -963.74M | -1.44B | -1.78B | -1.31B | -1.24B | -1.68B |
PulteGroup Technical Analysis
Negative
126.53
Price Trends
119.17
Negative
124.62
Negative
125.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.10
Negative
47.69
Neutral
85.65
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PHM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 126.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 117.09, above the 50-day MA of 119.17, and above the 200-day MA of 125.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PHM.
PulteGroup Risk Analysis
PulteGroup disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PulteGroup reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PulteGroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $40.76B | 15.24 | 13.24% | 1.14% | -5.57% | -19.40% | |
71 Outperform | $22.18B | 16.24 | 15.92% | 0.78% | -5.94% | -27.06% | |
69 Neutral | $12.72B | 12.97 | 15.49% | 0.70% | 3.62% | -2.11% | |
68 Neutral | $5.42B | 13.92 | 10.85% | ― | -8.99% | -22.26% | |
67 Neutral | $16.30B | 23.10 | 32.66% | ― | -7.05% | -16.31% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $21.82B | 30.47 | 8.04% | 1.91% | -7.52% | -49.33% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PHM
PulteGroup
116.43
19.00
19.50%
DHI
DR Horton
143.73
26.44
22.55%
LEN
Lennar
88.86
-14.41
-13.95%
NVR
NVR
6,036.99
-1,029.40
-14.57%
TOL
Toll Brothers
134.33
30.87
29.84%
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
57.99
1.56
2.76%
PulteGroup Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
PulteGroup Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 1, 2026
PulteGroup shareholders convened for the 2026 Annual Meeting on April 29, 2026, with 174,052,310 common shares present or represented by proxy. All eleven board nominees were elected to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity i...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
PulteGroup Reports Lower Q1 Earnings Amid Housing Headwinds
Negative
Apr 23, 2026
PulteGroup reported first quarter 2026 results on April 23, with net income falling to $347 million, or $1.79 per share, from $523 million, or $2.57 per share, a year earlier as home sale revenues declined 12% to $3.3 billion. The builder saw a 7%...
Private Placements and Financing
PulteGroup Prices $800 Million Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, PulteGroup completed an $800 million underwritten public offering of senior unsecured notes, split evenly between 4.250% notes due 2031 and 4.900% notes due 2036. The notes, issued under an existing indenture and guaranteed o...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
PulteGroup Announces New Senior Notes and Debt Redemption
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 10, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. and its U.S. guarantor subsidiaries entered into an underwriting agreement for an $800 million senior unsecured notes offering, split evenly between 4.250% notes due 2031 and 4.900% notes due 2036, with closi...
Executive/Board Changes
PulteGroup Adds Independent Director to Board, Committees
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 4, 2026, PulteGroup’s board expanded to 11 members and appointed Kristin Gannon, a Managing Director at real estate investment bank Eastdil Secured, as an independent director effective February 10, 2026. She will serve on the Au...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.