PulteGroup (PHM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.30B
• Dividend Yield: 0.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 1.76%
• EPS Growth: -4.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,793
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 2.56
• Shares Outstanding: 192,141,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,570,642
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,788,089
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.05
• 1Y Price Target: $139.27
• Price Target Upside: -0.54% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.44B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $158.00 ▲(12.84% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/22/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/22/26

The score is primarily driven by strong underlying financial performance (profitability and a conservative balance sheet) and supportive technical uptrend. It is tempered by cash-flow volatility and softer near-term outlook signals from the earnings call (elevated incentives, higher lot costs, and reduced 2026 cash flow guidance), while valuation remains reasonable but with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage and strong equity returns

PulteGroup’s materially reduced leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.19) and multi-year mid-20%+ ROE create durable financial flexibility. Low leverage and net-debt-to-capital near zero improve resilience in downturns, support land buys, buybacks and refinancing without stressing interest coverage.

Large controlled land pipeline

Controlling ~235k lots and investing $5.2B provides structural optionality to pace community growth and closings. A deep lot position supports mid-term volume stability, allows strategic timing of starts, and reduces short-term exposure to land availability shocks as markets reprice.

Historically high and sustainable margins

Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect durable model advantages—product mix (active adult, move-up homes), scale, and cost control. Strong structural margins provide a buffer versus input cost inflation and support consistent cash generation and attractive ROE over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Extreme cash-flow volatility

A near-total free-cash-flow collapse in 2025 highlights volatile working-capital and timing risks in the housing cycle. Such swings constrain reliable funding for land investment, dividends or repurchases, complicate forecasting and increase sensitivity to cyclical hits over the next several quarters.

Rising lot cost pressure

A projected 7%–8% rise in lot costs is a structural margin headwind because lots are a core input. Unless offset by higher ASPs, reduced incentives, or productivity gains, higher lot costs will compress gross margins and lower returns on new communities through the next 2–6 months.

Regional demand softness and elevated incentives

Persistent softness in key regions combined with elevated incentives and rising cancellations weakens backlog quality and increases the need for price concessions. This structural demand variability reduces predictability of closings and margins, pressuring revenue and profitability near term.

PulteGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. The company also offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brand names. As of December 31, 2021, it controlled 228,296 lots, of which 109,078 were owned and 119,218 were under land option agreements. In addition, the company arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans primarily for homebuyers; sells the servicing rights for the originated loans; and provides title insurance policies, and examination and closing services to homebuyers. PulteGroup, Inc. was formerly known as Pulte Homes, Inc. and changed its name to PulteGroup, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

PulteGroup generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed homes, which constitute the bulk of its income. The company earns money by building and selling homes to individual buyers or through contracts with real estate developers and investors. Key revenue streams include the sale of completed homes, homebuilding-related services, and land development. Additionally, PulteGroup benefits from partnerships with various suppliers and contractors for materials and construction services, which can enhance operational efficiency and cost management. The company's financial performance is also influenced by market demand, interest rates, and trends in the housing market, which affect overall sales volumes and pricing.

PulteGroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and a de-risked balance sheet (improving leverage and strong ROE) support the score. The main offset is cash-flow volatility, including a very sharp 2025 annual free-cash-flow drop, and signs of softer 2025 revenue/earnings versus 2024.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong with consistently healthy gross and net margins (2020–2024 net margin roughly in the low-to-high teens), and earnings expanded materially from 2020 to 2024 alongside solid revenue growth in most years. However, momentum softened in 2025 (annual) with revenue down about 1.8% and net income falling versus 2024, signaling a cooler demand/pricing environment after a strong multi-year run.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears conservative and improving over time: debt-to-equity declined from ~0.48 (2020) to ~0.19 (2024), while equity steadily built alongside strong returns on equity (roughly mid-20%+ in 2021–2024). The main watch item is the 2025 balance sheet data set not including leverage/return ratios, but the provided debt and equity levels still suggest a solid capital position.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally been strong, with free cash flow closely tracking earnings in 2020–2024 (free cash flow to net income ~0.83–0.97) and operating cash flow typically covering net income around ~1x in 2023–2024. The key weakness is volatility: operating and free cash flow swung significantly (notably weaker in 2022 vs. 2023–2024), and 2025 (annual) shows an extreme free cash flow decline (-99.9%), which raises concern about working-capital swings and/or reinvestment timing in a cyclical housing market.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.31B	17.95B	16.06B	16.00B	13.74B
Gross Profit	4.57B	5.22B	4.72B	4.83B	3.78B
EBITDA	3.02B	4.10B	3.53B	3.51B	2.58B
Net Income	2.22B	3.08B	2.60B	2.62B	1.95B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.05B	17.36B	16.09B	14.80B	13.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.01B	1.65B	1.85B	1.09B	1.83B
Total Debt	2.40B	2.34B	2.62B	2.81B	2.82B
Total Liabilities	5.06B	5.24B	5.70B	5.88B	5.86B
Stockholders Equity	12.99B	12.12B	10.38B	8.91B	7.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.75B	1.56B	2.10B	555.80M	931.24M
Operating Cash Flow	1.87B	1.68B	2.20B	668.47M	1.00B
Investing Cash Flow	-80.42M	-94.48M	-129.09M	-171.74M	-124.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.44B	-1.78B	-1.31B	-1.24B	-1.68B

PulteGroup Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 140.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PHM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 140.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.24, above the 50-day MA of 127.81, and above the 200-day MA of 120.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PHM.

PulteGroup Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOL	79 Outperform	$15.16B	11.43	17.03%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
TMHC	77 Outperform	$6.59B	8.64	12.87%	―	6.98%	9.74%
PHM	76 Outperform	$27.30B	12.78	17.67%	0.78%	1.76%	-4.24%
NVR	75 Outperform	$21.02B	17.21	33.18%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
DHI	73 Outperform	$48.45B	15.19	13.63%	1.14%	-6.93%	-19.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	60 Neutral	$29.71B	15.19	8.26%	1.91%	-3.78%	-44.21%

PulteGroup Corporate Events

PulteGroup Prices $800 Million Senior Unsecured Notes Offering

On February 20, 2026, PulteGroup completed an $800 million underwritten public offering of senior unsecured notes, split evenly between 4.250% notes due 2031 and 4.900% notes due 2036. The notes, issued under an existing indenture and guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by certain U.S. subsidiaries, rank pari passu with the company’s other senior unsecured debt.

The offering enhances PulteGroup’s long-term funding profile by locking in fixed-rate capital with flexible redemption features and change-of-control protections for investors. Covenants in the supplemental indenture restrict new secured indebtedness, sale-leaseback transactions, and major corporate restructurings, shaping the company’s future financing options and offering bondholders additional safeguards through customary events of default provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (PHM) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PulteGroup stock, see the PHM Stock Forecast page.

PulteGroup Announces New Senior Notes and Debt Redemption

On February 10, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. and its U.S. guarantor subsidiaries entered into an underwriting agreement for an $800 million senior unsecured notes offering, split evenly between 4.250% notes due 2031 and 4.900% notes due 2036, with closing expected on February 20, 2026, subject to customary conditions. On February 11, 2026, the company issued a redemption notice for all $337.3 million of its 5.000% senior notes due 2027, to be redeemed on March 13, 2026, and plans to use a portion of the new notes’ proceeds to finance the redemption, effectively refinancing its debt at staggered longer-term maturities.

The most recent analyst rating on (PHM) stock is a Buy with a $152.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PulteGroup stock, see the PHM Stock Forecast page.

PulteGroup Adds Independent Director to Board, Committees

On February 4, 2026, PulteGroup’s board expanded to 11 members and appointed Kristin Gannon, a Managing Director at real estate investment bank Eastdil Secured, as an independent director effective February 10, 2026. She will serve on the Audit and Nominating and Governance Committees, with her compensation aligned to the company’s existing non-employee director pay structure on a prorated basis.

Gannon brings more than 20 years of experience in real estate finance, capital markets, and strategic advisory, including senior roles at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley where she advised on over $150 billion in real estate transactions. Her appointment strengthens PulteGroup’s governance and financial oversight capabilities, adding deep sector expertise that could support the homebuilder’s strategic decisions and shareholder value objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (PHM) stock is a Hold with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PulteGroup stock, see the PHM Stock Forecast page.