PulteGroup (PHM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.47B
• Dividend Yield: 0.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 1.76%
• EPS Growth: -4.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,793
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 2.56
• Shares Outstanding: 192,141,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,659,113
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,734,887
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.89
• 1Y Price Target: $141.83
• Price Target Upside: 16.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.44B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $138.00 ▲(12.96% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/22/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/22/26

The score is primarily driven by strong underlying financial performance (profitability and a conservative balance sheet) and supportive technical uptrend. It is tempered by cash-flow volatility and softer near-term outlook signals from the earnings call (elevated incentives, higher lot costs, and reduced 2026 cash flow guidance), while valuation remains reasonable but with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High profitability and margins

PulteGroup's 2025 gross margin (26.3%) and operating margin (16.9%) indicate durable pricing power and operational execution. Sustained high margins support strong ROE, fund reinvestment and buybacks, and provide a structural buffer against cyclical volume declines, preserving long-term cash generation.

Conservative, improving balance sheet

A materially de-levered capital structure with negative net debt-to-capital and $2.0B cash provides durable financial flexibility. This conservative leverage profile supports funding land investment, refinancing, and shareholder returns while reducing downside insolvency risk during housing-cycle stress.

Large controlled land pipeline

A deep lot pipeline (235k lots) and sizable, disciplined land spend create a multi-year supply advantage. Controlling land inventory lets Pulte time community deliveries, manage product mix, and protect margins versus spot land markets, supporting sustained volume and margin execution across cycles.

Negative Factors

Extreme free cash flow volatility

An almost complete annual FCF collapse in 2025 highlights pronounced cash volatility likely from working-capital swings or reinvestment timing. Persistent FCF unpredictability can constrain capital returns, increase reliance on external financing in down periods, and complicate multi-quarter planning.

Rising lot costs and margin pressure

Structural upward pressure on lot costs and already-elevated incentives reduce gross margin durability. Unless offset by pricing, mix, or efficiency gains, persistent higher land costs will erode per-home returns, forcing slower starts, tighter land discipline, or sacrificing margins over multiple quarters.

Regional demand softness and cancellations

Localized softness in key regions and a rising cancellation rate weaken backlog convertibility and revenue visibility. Continued regional demand weakness can force markdowns or incentives to clear inventory, lengthen sell-through, and depress cash flow and margin realization across affected communities.

PulteGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. The company also offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brand names. As of December 31, 2021, it controlled 228,296 lots, of which 109,078 were owned and 119,218 were under land option agreements. In addition, the company arranges financing through the origination of mortgage loans primarily for homebuyers; sells the servicing rights for the originated loans; and provides title insurance policies, and examination and closing services to homebuyers. PulteGroup, Inc. was formerly known as Pulte Homes, Inc. and changed its name to PulteGroup, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

PulteGroup primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes and related upgrades to homebuyers. Its largest revenue stream is Homebuilding revenue, which is recognized when a home sale closes (typically upon delivery/closing), and is influenced by the number of homes closed, average selling prices, and the mix of communities/products sold. Profitability within homebuilding is driven by land and development costs, construction and materials/labor costs, operating leverage, and pricing power (including incentives). In addition to home sales, PulteGroup generates revenue from its Financial Services segment, which includes mortgage origination and sale of mortgage loans, as well as title and insurance services provided largely to its homebuyers; this segment earns income from origination and related fees, gains/losses and other economics associated with selling/financing mortgages, and fees/commissions from title and insurance products. The company also monetizes its land pipeline through land acquisition, development, and lot options/controlled lots (the specific contribution of lot option structures to earnings depends on contract terms and market conditions). Key factors affecting earnings include housing demand, mortgage interest rates and credit availability, local market supply conditions, construction cycle times, and the cost/availability of labor and building materials.

PulteGroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and a de-risked balance sheet (improving leverage and strong ROE) support the score. The main offset is cash-flow volatility, including a very sharp 2025 annual free-cash-flow drop, and signs of softer 2025 revenue/earnings versus 2024.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong with consistently healthy gross and net margins (2020–2024 net margin roughly in the low-to-high teens), and earnings expanded materially from 2020 to 2024 alongside solid revenue growth in most years. However, momentum softened in 2025 (annual) with revenue down about 1.8% and net income falling versus 2024, signaling a cooler demand/pricing environment after a strong multi-year run.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears conservative and improving over time: debt-to-equity declined from ~0.48 (2020) to ~0.19 (2024), while equity steadily built alongside strong returns on equity (roughly mid-20%+ in 2021–2024). The main watch item is the 2025 balance sheet data set not including leverage/return ratios, but the provided debt and equity levels still suggest a solid capital position.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally been strong, with free cash flow closely tracking earnings in 2020–2024 (free cash flow to net income ~0.83–0.97) and operating cash flow typically covering net income around ~1x in 2023–2024. The key weakness is volatility: operating and free cash flow swung significantly (notably weaker in 2022 vs. 2023–2024), and 2025 (annual) shows an extreme free cash flow decline (-99.9%), which raises concern about working-capital swings and/or reinvestment timing in a cyclical housing market.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.31B	17.95B	16.06B	16.00B	13.74B
Gross Profit	4.57B	5.22B	4.72B	4.83B	3.78B
EBITDA	3.02B	4.10B	3.53B	3.51B	2.58B
Net Income	2.22B	3.08B	2.60B	2.62B	1.95B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.05B	17.36B	16.09B	14.80B	13.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.01B	1.65B	1.85B	1.09B	1.83B
Total Debt	2.40B	2.34B	2.62B	2.81B	2.82B
Total Liabilities	5.06B	5.24B	5.70B	5.88B	5.86B
Stockholders Equity	12.99B	12.12B	10.38B	8.91B	7.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.75B	1.56B	2.10B	555.80M	931.24M
Operating Cash Flow	1.87B	1.68B	2.20B	668.47M	1.00B
Investing Cash Flow	-80.42M	-94.48M	-129.09M	-171.74M	-124.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.44B	-1.78B	-1.31B	-1.24B	-1.68B

PulteGroup Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 122.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PHM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 122.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.93, below the 50-day MA of 130.24, and below the 200-day MA of 122.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PHM.

PulteGroup Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TMHC	77 Outperform	$5.78B	8.21	12.83%	―	6.98%	9.74%
PHM	76 Outperform	$23.47B	10.46	17.51%	0.78%	1.76%	-4.24%
NVR	75 Outperform	$18.34B	15.79	34.29%	―	3.61%	-6.94%
DHI	73 Outperform	$41.16B	17.70	13.81%	1.14%	-6.93%	-19.41%
TOL	69 Neutral	$13.46B	16.39	16.86%	0.70%	1.11%	-10.03%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
LEN	57 Neutral	$23.59B	30.47	8.04%	1.91%	-3.78%	-44.21%

PulteGroup Corporate Events

PulteGroup Prices $800 Million Senior Unsecured Notes Offering

On February 20, 2026, PulteGroup completed an $800 million underwritten public offering of senior unsecured notes, split evenly between 4.250% notes due 2031 and 4.900% notes due 2036. The notes, issued under an existing indenture and guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by certain U.S. subsidiaries, rank pari passu with the company’s other senior unsecured debt.

The offering enhances PulteGroup’s long-term funding profile by locking in fixed-rate capital with flexible redemption features and change-of-control protections for investors. Covenants in the supplemental indenture restrict new secured indebtedness, sale-leaseback transactions, and major corporate restructurings, shaping the company’s future financing options and offering bondholders additional safeguards through customary events of default provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (PHM) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PulteGroup stock, see the PHM Stock Forecast page.

PulteGroup Announces New Senior Notes and Debt Redemption

On February 10, 2026, PulteGroup, Inc. and its U.S. guarantor subsidiaries entered into an underwriting agreement for an $800 million senior unsecured notes offering, split evenly between 4.250% notes due 2031 and 4.900% notes due 2036, with closing expected on February 20, 2026, subject to customary conditions. On February 11, 2026, the company issued a redemption notice for all $337.3 million of its 5.000% senior notes due 2027, to be redeemed on March 13, 2026, and plans to use a portion of the new notes’ proceeds to finance the redemption, effectively refinancing its debt at staggered longer-term maturities.

The most recent analyst rating on (PHM) stock is a Buy with a $152.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PulteGroup stock, see the PHM Stock Forecast page.

PulteGroup Adds Independent Director to Board, Committees

On February 4, 2026, PulteGroup’s board expanded to 11 members and appointed Kristin Gannon, a Managing Director at real estate investment bank Eastdil Secured, as an independent director effective February 10, 2026. She will serve on the Audit and Nominating and Governance Committees, with her compensation aligned to the company’s existing non-employee director pay structure on a prorated basis.

Gannon brings more than 20 years of experience in real estate finance, capital markets, and strategic advisory, including senior roles at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley where she advised on over $150 billion in real estate transactions. Her appointment strengthens PulteGroup’s governance and financial oversight capabilities, adding deep sector expertise that could support the homebuilder’s strategic decisions and shareholder value objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (PHM) stock is a Hold with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PulteGroup stock, see the PHM Stock Forecast page.