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Monday.com (MNDY)
NASDAQ:MNDY
US Market

Monday.com (MNDY) AI Stock Analysis

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MNDY

Monday.com

(NASDAQ:MNDY)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$84.00
▲(18.34% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/10/26
The score is supported by strong financial quality (high gross margins, robust free cash flow, low leverage) and a generally constructive earnings outlook despite slower growth. It is held back primarily by very weak technicals (sharp downtrend and bearish momentum) and a valuation that still prices in solid performance without dividend support.
Positive Factors
Very high gross margins
Sustained ~89–90% gross margins reflect a high-margin SaaS model that supports durable operating leverage. Persistently strong gross margins allow monday.com to fund R&D and AI initiatives, absorb SG&A for upmarket expansion, and preserve long-term cash generation even amid growth variability.
Strong cash generation and conservative leverage
Robust free cash flow and low leverage provide financial flexibility. Consistent FCF conversion (~0.94 FCF/NI) and a large cash buffer support buybacks, reinvestment in product and sales, plus resilience to slower demand, enabling strategic choices without pressuring liquidity.
Clear upmarket traction and high NDR
A growing enterprise mix and 110% NDR indicate strong retention and expansion among higher-ACV accounts. Upmarket adoption raises average contract value, lengthens customer lifecycles, and smooths revenue visibility, helping margin expansion and more predictable long-term ARR growth.
Negative Factors
Revenue growth deceleration
Management's materially lower growth guidance signals slower top-line momentum versus recent years. Prolonged deceleration can limit operating leverage, increase the payback period on sales investments, and requires sustained execution on upmarket and product initiatives to restore prior growth trajectories.
Guided margin and FCF compression
Guided compression of operating and free cash flow margins, amplified by a 100–200bps FX headwind and higher investment, reduces the firm's internal funding capacity. Sustained margin pressure would constrain reinvestment, capital returns, or margin expansion even if revenue stabilizes.
Weaker self-serve demand and rising CAC
Persistent weakness in no-touch channels and rising CAC force a strategic shift to higher-touch, upmarket sales motions. That raises sales cost, lengthens sales cycles and increases headcount spend, making customer acquisition more expensive and slowing scalable growth from SMB/self-serve cohorts.

Monday.com (MNDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Monday.com Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptionmonday.com Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops software applications in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It provides Work OS, a cloud-based visual work operating system that consists of modular building blocks used and assembled to create software applications and work management tools. The company also offers product solutions for marketing, CRM, project management, software development, and other fields; and business development, presale, and customer success services. It serves organizations, educational or government institution, and distinct business unit of an organization. The company was formerly known as DaPulse Labs Ltd. and changed its name to monday.com Ltd. in November 2017. monday.com Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyMonday.com generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model, offering tiered pricing plans that cater to different business sizes and needs. The company provides several subscription options, including Basic, Standard, Pro, and Enterprise plans, with increasing levels of features and capabilities. Key revenue streams include monthly and annual subscriptions from its growing customer base, which spans various industries. Additionally, Monday.com benefits from partnerships with third-party integrations and APIs, enhancing its platform's functionality and appeal. The company continuously invests in marketing and expansion strategies to capture a larger share of the project management software market, contributing to its overall earnings.

Monday.com Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate
Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate
Measures revenue growth from existing customers, showcasing the company's success in retaining and expanding business with its current client base, a key indicator of customer satisfaction and product value.
Chart InsightsMonday.com’s net retention rate has stabilized after a period of decline, reflecting a strategic shift towards larger customers. The latest earnings call highlights improved retention for accounts over $50K ARR, aligning with the company's upmarket strategy. Despite challenges like longer sales cycles, the focus on AI-powered solutions and multi-product offerings is driving growth. This strategic pivot is crucial as it enhances customer value and supports sustained revenue expansion, evidenced by a 26% revenue increase and strong profitability in the latest quarter.
Data provided by:The Fly

Monday.com Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong operational execution and product momentum—notably profitable growth, robust free cash flow, clear upmarket traction, and accelerating AI adoption—while also flagging meaningful near-term headwinds: slower revenue growth guidance (18–19% vs 27% prior year), margin and FCF compression, persistent weakness in self-serve/no-touch channels, and a material FX impact from the Israeli shekel. Management emphasized disciplined, confidence-level guidance for 2026 and shifted investment toward higher-ROI upmarket and AI opportunities, but pulled longer-term targets given uncertainty. Overall, positives around profitability, cash generation, and AI/product traction are balanced by the conservative guidance and identifiable macro/operational risks.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth and Profitability
Q4 revenue of $334M, up 25% year-over-year; fiscal 2025 revenue of $1.232B, up 27% YoY. Fiscal 2025 operating income of $175.3M with a 14% operating margin and net income of $233.6M (up from $183.3M prior year). Diluted EPS was $4.40 for the year.
Robust Free Cash Flow and Liquidity
Adjusted free cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $322.7M with a 26% margin; Q4 adjusted free cash flow was $56.7M (17% margin). Cash and equivalents ended Q4 at $1.5B. Executed $135M of share repurchases in the quarter with ~$735M remaining authorization.
Clear Upmarket Momentum and Customer Expansion
Customers with >$50k ARR now represent 41% of total ARR. Record net adds in the >$100k ARR cohort and customers with >$500k ARR grew 74% YoY, supporting a shift upmarket and higher ACV per customer. The $50k+ cohort shows strong retention metrics (91% cross retention and renewal rates in the high 90s as highlighted).
Healthy Net Dollar Retention (NDR)
Overall NDR was 110% in Q4 and the company expects NDR to remain stable at 110% in fiscal 2026 (trailing four-quarter weighted average).
Meaningful AI Product Traction
Monday.ai adoption accelerating: Monday Blocks powered >77M actions, Sidekick processed 500k+ user messages, AI agents in beta with strong early feedback. Monday Vibe became the fastest product in company history to surpass $1M ARR, signaling early monetization potential.
High Gross Margins
Fourth-quarter gross margin of 89% and fiscal 2025 gross margin of 90%, reflecting a high-margin SaaS model even as the company invests in AI and product expansion.
Negative Updates
Guidance Shows Meaningful Deceleration
Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.452B–$1.462B implies growth of 18%–19% YoY, down from FY2025 growth of 27% (an ~8–9 percentage-point slowdown). Management intentionally provided a more conservative near-term guide.
Margin and Free Cash Flow Compression Expected
FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance of $165M–$175M (11%–12% operating margin) versus 14% in FY2025. Adjusted free cash flow guidance $275M–$290M (19%–20% margin) vs 26% in FY2025 — indicating near-term margin and FCF pressure.
Choppy No-Touch / Self-Serve Demand and Rising CAC
Management cited continued choppiness in no-touch channels (SMB/self-serve), higher cost to acquire and expand self-serve customers, and lower returns on those investments. The company expects these dynamics to persist into 2026 and has shifted investment toward higher-ROI touch/upmarket channels.
Material FX Headwind from Shekel Appreciation
Israeli shekel appreciation created approximately a 180-basis-point negative operating margin impact in Q4 and ~110 bps for fiscal 2025 overall. FY2026 guidance assumes a 100–200 bps negative FX impact, pressuring margins and cash flow.
Discontinuation of Longer-Term Targets
Company will no longer discuss previously provided FY2027 targets (including the prior $1.5B reference) and will focus communications on FY2026, reflecting greater near-term uncertainty.
Potential Near-Term Cash Taxes and Lower Interest Income
2025 included a $61.2M noncash income tax benefit; management noted they may begin paying cash taxes in the near future. Lower interest rates also reduce interest income on the cash balance, negatively affecting FCF.
Higher Investment Intensity and Slight Q4 Net Income Dip
R&D rose to 20% of revenue in Q4 (from 18% prior year quarter) and FY R&D was 19% (up from 17%), with headcount up and planned mid-teens headcount growth in 2026—implying higher operating spend. Q4 GAAP net income was $55M, down from $57.3M year-ago.
Company Guidance
monday.com guided to FY2026 revenue of $1.452–$1.462 billion (growth of 18–19% YoY), full‑year non‑GAAP operating income of $165–$175 million (11–12% operating margin, assuming a 100–200 bps negative FX impact), adjusted free cash flow of $275–$290 million (19–20% adjusted FCF margin, assuming ~100 bps FX headwind) and stable overall NDR of 110% (trailing four‑quarter weighted); the company plans mid‑teens percentage headcount growth with incremental investment mainly in sales and R&D, expects gross margin in the mid‑to‑high‑80s in 2026, may begin paying cash taxes, assumes continued choppiness in no‑touch demand, and enters the year with $1.5 billion cash, a $135 million Q4 buyback and about $735 million remaining repurchase authorization.

Monday.com Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong overall fundamentals: very high gross margins (~89–90%), solid and well-converting free cash flow (~$321M TTM; FCF/NI ~0.94), and a conservative balance sheet with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.09). Offsets include decelerating growth and still-thin/volatile operating profitability (EBIT near break-even in TTM).
Income Statement
78
Positive
Profitability has improved materially versus earlier loss-making years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income of about $119M and a mid-single-digit net margin (~5.6%). Gross margins remain exceptionally strong (~89% in TTM), supporting operating leverage as the business scales. The main offset is that operating profitability is still thin/volatile (EBIT is near break-even in TTM after being negative in prior years), and revenue growth has decelerated sharply in TTM versus the very high growth rates posted in 2020–2022.
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
The balance sheet looks conservative, with low leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.09) and a solid equity base (~$1.25B in TTM). Returns on equity have turned positive (TTM ~5.7%) after prior-year losses, indicating improving underlying earnings quality. The key watch item is that total debt has increased meaningfully versus 2023–2024 levels, though it remains modest relative to equity and assets.
Cash Flow
87
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$341M) with free cash flow close behind (~$321M), and free cash flow tracks net income closely (TTM free cash flow to net income ~0.94), suggesting earnings are converting well into cash. While free cash flow growth is slightly negative in TTM (~-3%), the broader trend since 2021 shows a major step-up in cash flow versus earlier periods, improving financial flexibility.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.23B972.00M729.70M519.03M308.15M
Gross Profit1.10B868.30M649.05M452.50M269.14M
EBITDA73.12M58.00M12.79M-120.10M-123.25M
Net Income118.74M32.37M-1.88M-136.87M-129.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.11B1.69B1.28B1.04B933.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.67B1.46B1.12B885.89M886.81M
Total Debt311.71M106.04M61.15M77.72M84.00K
Total Liabilities859.76M655.28M462.15M359.30M229.80M
Stockholders Equity1.25B1.03B813.51M679.74M703.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow313.28M295.83M204.94M8.14M2.60M
Operating Cash Flow333.64M311.06M215.40M27.14M16.36M
Investing Cash Flow-133.72M-70.81M-10.46M-19.00M-3.63M
Financing Cash Flow-108.38M55.21M25.29M-9.05M742.27M

Monday.com Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price70.98
Price Trends
50DMA
115.25
Negative
100DMA
143.41
Negative
200DMA
196.65
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-12.94
Negative
RSI
26.46
Positive
STOCH
38.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNDY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 70.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.23, below the 50-day MA of 115.25, and below the 200-day MA of 196.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 26.46 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNDY.

Monday.com Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$7.28B11.9316.53%9.46%34.09%
71
Outperform
$7.54B20.5057.32%0.16%17.00%120.21%
67
Neutral
$3.60B31.6810.43%28.62%186.67%
65
Neutral
$4.41B-100.89-5.17%27.35%18.18%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
60
Neutral
$3.90B-15.88%24.26%55.58%
55
Neutral
$1.73B-7.83-102.48%9.47%16.97%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MNDY
Monday.com
70.98
-205.54
-74.33%
NICE
NICE
116.38
-28.24
-19.53%
PEGA
Pegasystems
44.62
5.88
15.19%
KC
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings
12.82
-3.20
-19.98%
ASAN
Asana
7.30
-11.38
-60.92%
GTLB
Gitlab
26.19
-36.61
-58.30%

Monday.com Corporate Events

Monday.com Posts Strong 2025 Growth and Profitability Gains as Enterprise, AI Offerings Accelerate
Feb 9, 2026

Monday.com on February 9, 2026 reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting 27% annual revenue growth to $1.23 billion and a sharp improvement in GAAP profitability, with operating loss narrowing to nearly breakeven and non-GAAP operating income rising to $175.3 million. The company is pushing further upmarket, as customers generating more than $50,000 in ARR grew 34% and now contribute 41% of total ARR, while its fastest-growing AI product, monday vibe, surpassed $1 million in ARR just 2.5 months after launch, supporting record growth in large accounts and underpinning an $839 million backlog and an active share repurchase program that signals confidence in its longer-term trajectory despite foreign-exchange headwinds on margins.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue climbed 25% year over year to $333.9 million, non-GAAP operating margin came in at 13% after FX pressure, and cash generation remained strong, with $56.7 million in adjusted free cash flow. Management guided for more measured growth in 2026, projecting 18%–19% revenue expansion, an 11%–12% non-GAAP operating margin and up to $290 million in adjusted free cash flow, suggesting a shift toward sustained profitability and disciplined investment as monday.com leans on its unified AI platform and expanding base of larger customers to consolidate its position in enterprise work management software.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNDY) stock is a Buy with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monday.com stock, see the MNDY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 10, 2026