Mdu Resources Group (MDU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.15B
• Dividend Yield: 2.76%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: -57.80%
• EPS Growth: -57.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,052
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 204,382,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,502,211
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,813,379
• PEG Ratio: -0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.09
• 1Y Price Target: $21.33
• Price Target Upside: 4.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.01B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(3.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality (declining revenue/margins and negative free cash flow) despite steady profitability. This is partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook and growth funding plan, while technicals and valuation appear broadly neutral-to-slightly supportive.

Positive Factors

Rate base growth (regulated utility)

A 16% increase in regulated rate base underpins durable, predictable revenue and cash flows driven by regulated returns. Sustained rate-base expansion supports long-term earnings visibility and funds capital recovery, making utility operations a stable backbone for multi-year growth.

Natural gas utility strength

Strong natural gas utility earnings (nearly 20% YoY) reflect effective multi-jurisdictional rate relief and demand stability. This segment's regulatory recovery mechanisms and rising residential/commercial sales provide resilient margins and cash generation over the medium term.

Data-center backlog and capital-light model

A 580 MW data-center backlog with staged in-service volumes and a capital-light approach offers scalable, low-capex growth that enhances earnings optionality. Long-term contracts and staged starts diversify demand and can boost utility load factors without proportionate balance-sheet strain.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow

Recurring negative free cash flow, including a large deficit in 2025, reduces financial flexibility for dividends, debt reduction, and incremental investment. Persistent negative FCF signals heavy capex and/or weak cash conversion, heightening refinancing and liquidity risks over the medium term.

Elevated leverage post-acquisition

Leverage near 50% following the Badger wind acquisition raises balance-sheet risk and increases interest-cost sensitivity. Elevated debt constrains flexibility for opportunistic investment and requires careful deleveraging execution to avoid pressuring credit metrics over the next 2–4 years.

Revenue decline and margin compression

A multi-year revenue decline and meaningful margin compression weaken underlying earnings power and free-cash dynamics. Sluggish top-line trends and rising O&M costs reduce the cushion against regulatory or project delays, making long-term EPS targets harder to sustainably achieve.

Mdu Resources Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery, and construction materials and services businesses in the United States. The company's Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity for residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, as well as operates 3,500 miles of transmission lines and 4,800 miles of distribution lines. Its Natural Gas Distribution segment distributes natural gas for residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming; and offers supply-related value-added services. The company's Pipeline segment provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions; and cathodic protection and other energy-related services. Its Construction Materials and Contracting segment mines, processes, and sells construction aggregates; produces and sells asphalt mix; and supplies ready-mixed concrete. This segment is also involved in the sale of cement, finished concrete products, and other building materials and related contracting services. The company's Construction Services segment designs, constructs, and maintains electrical and communication wiring and infrastructure, fire suppression systems, mechanical piping and services; overhead and underground electrical, gas, and communication infrastructure; and manufactures and distributes transmission lines construction equipment. It serves manufacturing, commercial, industrial, transportation, institutional, and renewable and government customers, as well as utilities. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

How the Company Makes Money

MDU Resources Group generates revenue primarily through its utility operations, which include the distribution of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The utility segment benefits from regulated pricing structures that ensure stable cash flows. Additionally, the construction services segment contributes significantly to the company's earnings by providing a range of services for public and private sector projects, including road construction and maintenance. The materials production segment, which involves the extraction and sale of aggregates and asphalt, also adds to the revenue stream. MDU has established partnerships with various governmental and commercial entities, which enhance its project pipeline and contribute to steady revenue growth. The company's ability to adapt to regulatory changes and invest in infrastructure improvements further solidifies its financial performance.

Mdu Resources Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitable operations and steady operating cash flow support the base business, but revenue declines, margin compression, rising leverage, and recurring negative free cash flow (notably 2024–2025) meaningfully weaken near-term financial quality and flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid, with positive EBIT and net income across all reported years and generally healthy operating profitability (EBIT margin largely in the low-to-mid teens, peaking higher in 2023). However, the growth profile is weak: revenue has been down in most years (including -8.3% in 2025 and -2.5% in 2024), and net profit margin has compressed meaningfully from 2023 to 2025. Results also look somewhat volatile year-to-year, including a sharp revenue drop in 2022.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable but trending worse: debt-to-equity moved up to ~0.98 in 2025 from ~0.85 in 2024, indicating rising balance-sheet risk. Equity remains substantial relative to assets, and returns on equity have been consistently positive, though they moderated to ~7% in 2025 from ~10% in 2024 and ~14% in 2023. Overall, the balance sheet is stable, but the direction of leverage and declining returns are key watch items.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow is consistently positive and relatively steady, which supports ongoing operations. The main issue is free cash flow: it has been negative in most recent years (including a large deficit in 2025 and slightly negative in 2024), implying heavier investment and/or weaker cash conversion versus earnings. While free cash flow growth shows a sharp rebound in 2025, it is from a weak base and still negative, leaving less financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.88B	1.76B	1.80B	1.75B	3.45B
Gross Profit	404.90M	571.94M	518.53M	490.06M	687.28M
EBITDA	525.40M	507.09M	635.40M	392.69M	555.01M
Net Income	190.40M	281.11M	414.71M	367.49M	378.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.76B	7.04B	7.83B	9.66B	8.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.21M	50.20M	48.88M	34.83M	54.16M
Total Debt	2.74B	2.29B	2.49B	2.48B	2.87B
Total Liabilities	4.98B	4.35B	4.93B	6.07B	5.53B
Stockholders Equity	2.77B	2.69B	2.91B	3.59B	3.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-318.60M	-20.51M	-187.10M	67.48M	10.58M
Operating Cash Flow	473.40M	502.32M	332.63M	510.06M	495.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-780.90M	-552.68M	-540.79M	-638.88M	-885.88M
Financing Cash Flow	268.80M	40.30M	204.62M	155.17M	384.71M

Mdu Resources Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.44, above the 50-day MA of 20.14, and above the 200-day MA of 18.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDU.

Mdu Resources Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VMI	75 Outperform	$9.12B	27.58	20.41%	0.63%	1.23%	-22.77%
SEB	72 Outperform	$4.78B	9.48	9.98%	0.21%	10.31%	―
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
MDU	57 Neutral	$4.15B	21.89	7.01%	2.76%	-57.80%	-57.40%
FIP	56 Neutral	$733.82M	-2.64	-13.99%	1.90%	32.39%	-19.35%
IEP	52 Neutral	$4.64B	-10.09	-12.71%	27.59%	-8.45%	27.66%
CODI	45 Neutral	$609.41M	-1.49	-41.05%	20.53%	-15.85%	-59.42%

Mdu Resources Group Corporate Events

MDU Resources Group Releases Q4 and 2025 Results

Mdu Resources Group has released an investor presentation detailing its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, which is available through the investor relations section of its corporate website. The company clarified that the materials associated with this update are being furnished rather than filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, limiting their exposure to certain regulatory liabilities and ensuring they are not automatically incorporated into other SEC filings unless specifically referenced.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDU) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mdu Resources Group stock, see the MDU Stock Forecast page.

MDU Resources Extends WBI Energy Senior Notes Shelf Facility

On January 15, 2026, WBI Energy Transmission, Inc., an indirect subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, Inc., amended its existing note purchase and private shelf agreement with PGIM, Inc. and other purchasers to extend through December 22, 2028 the period during which it may issue up to an aggregate $350 million of senior unsecured shelf notes, subject to the purchasers’ discretion and potential termination of the issuance right. WBI has already issued $235 million under this facility, leaving $115 million available as of that date, and plans to use any additional proceeds for general corporate purposes, including funding previously announced capital expenditures, while remaining subject to customary financial and operational covenants and default provisions that limit indebtedness, liens, affiliate transactions, asset sales, mergers, and certain investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDU) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mdu Resources Group stock, see the MDU Stock Forecast page.

MDU Resources Expands Forward Equity Offering for Financing

On December 3, 2025, MDU Resources Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement and related forward sale agreements for an underwritten public offering of its common stock, initially covering 10,152,284 forward shares that were borrowed from third parties and sold by forward sellers to the underwriters, with a 30-day option for an additional 1,522,842 shares on the same terms. On December 23, 2025, the underwriters fully exercised this option, and on December 26, 2025, the additional forward shares were borrowed and sold, with MDU entering into corresponding additional forward sale agreements that run through December 6, 2027 and are designed to allow the company to settle physically, in cash, or via net share settlement at an initial forward sale price of $18.90 per share, subject to adjustments tied to interest rates, dividends, and stock-borrowing costs, which collectively could influence future dilution of earnings per share and provide the company with flexible equity financing while deepening its ties to key banking counterparties.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDU) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mdu Resources Group stock, see the MDU Stock Forecast page.

MDU Resources Extends Revolving Credit Agreement to 2030

On December 11, 2025, MDU Resources Group, Inc. amended and restated its Five-Year Revolving Credit Agreement with U.S. Bank National Association and several lenders, extending the maturity date from May 31, 2028, to December 11, 2030. The agreement maintains an initial commitment amount of $200 million, with options to increase it by $50 million and extend the maturity date twice by one year each. The agreement includes a variable interest rate and a facility fee that depends on the company’s senior unsecured debt rating, with $33,850,000 in loans outstanding as of the agreement date.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDU) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mdu Resources Group stock, see the MDU Stock Forecast page.

MDU Resources Group Enters Forward Sale Agreements

On December 3, 2025, MDU Resources Group, Inc. entered into forward sale agreements with Wells Fargo Bank, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase Bank for the sale of over 10 million shares of its common stock. The shares were borrowed and sold to underwriters as part of a public offering, with an additional option for underwriters to purchase more shares. This move is part of a registered offering under the Securities Act, indicating a strategic financial maneuver by the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (MDU) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mdu Resources Group stock, see the MDU Stock Forecast page.