Mdu Res (MDU)
NYSE:MDU
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Mdu Resources Group
(NYSE:MDU)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
â–¼(-6.00% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality (declining revenue/margins and negative free cash flow) despite steady profitability. This is partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook and growth funding plan, while technicals and valuation appear broadly neutral-to-slightly supportive.
Positive Factors
Rate base growth (regulated utility)
A 16% increase in regulated rate base underpins durable, predictable revenue and cash flows driven by regulated returns. Sustained rate-base expansion supports long-term earnings visibility and funds capital recovery, making utility operations a stable backbone for multi-year growth.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Recurring negative free cash flow, including a large deficit in 2025, reduces financial flexibility for dividends, debt reduction, and incremental investment. Persistent negative FCF signals heavy capex and/or weak cash conversion, heightening refinancing and liquidity risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rate base growth (regulated utility)
A 16% increase in regulated rate base underpins durable, predictable revenue and cash flows driven by regulated returns. Sustained rate-base expansion supports long-term earnings visibility and funds capital recovery, making utility operations a stable backbone for multi-year growth.
Read all positive factors
Mdu Resources Group (MDU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.56B
Dividend Yield2.76%
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth-57.80%
EPS Growth-57.40%
CountryUS
Employees2,052
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryConglomerates
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding204,382,830
10 Day Avg. Volume1,236,978
30 Day Avg. Volume1,771,663
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.64
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio-12.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.67Price Target Upside-3.00% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.00B
Mdu Resources Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery, and construction materials and services businesses in the United States. The company's Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity for residential, commerci...
How the Company Makes Money
MDU Resources Group generates revenue primarily through its utility operations, which include the distribution of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The utility segment benefits from regulated pricing...
Mdu Resources Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a generally constructive outlook marked by meaningful capital deployment ($792M), a 16% increase in utility rate base, record pipeline performance, robust natural gas utility growth (+19.6%), and a sizable data center backlog (580 MW). The company executed a strategic acquisition (Badger Wind Farm), revised its five‑year capital plan to $3.1B, and secured equity financing to fund growth, all while reaffirming a long-term EPS growth target of 6%–8% and a 60%–70% dividend payout target. Offsetting these positives are near-term pressures: reported GAAP earnings declined due to the Everest spin-off, electric utility earnings fell (~-13.3%), O&M and other expense inflation, a denied interim rate in Montana delaying recovery, elevated leverage (49.1% debt-to-capital post-acquisition), and remaining uncertainty around large incremental projects such as the Bakken East pipeline. On balance, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, though execution and regulatory timing will determine near-term pacing.Positive Updates
Earnings from Continuing Operations Increased
Income from continuing operations was $191.4 million, or $0.93 per share, up from $181.1 million, or $0.88 per share in 2024 (~+5.7% YoY on continuing EPS).
Negative Updates
Reported Full-Year GAAP Earnings Declined (Spin-Off Impact)
Reported full-year 2025 earnings were $190.4 million, or $0.93 per share, versus $281.1 million, or $1.37 per share in 2024—a decline of ~32%—largely driven by the October 2024 spin-off of Everest and the reclassification of Everest results to discontinued operations, which complicates year-over-year comparability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings from Continuing Operations Increased
Income from continuing operations was $191.4 million, or $0.93 per share, up from $181.1 million, or $0.88 per share in 2024 (~+5.7% YoY on continuing EPS).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management initiated 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 per share (noting the range reflects equity financing for growth), reiterated a long‑term EPS growth target of 6%–8% and a targeted annual dividend payout ratio of 60%–70%; they also confirmed a revised 2026–2030 capital plan of $3.1 billion (after $792 million deployed in 2025), said utility rate base grew 16% year‑over‑year and combined retail customer growth was 1.5% (within the 1%–2% target), and highlighted key regulatory and project metrics that underpin guidance — including the 49% Badger Wind interest placed in service Dec. 31, 2025 (recovery filings made Oct. 31; ND PSC approved Jan. 26), signed data center load of 580 MW (180 MW online, 100 MW ramping, 150 MW expected later this year and 150 MW in 2027), Line Section 32 FERC filing targeted for March 2026 with construction complete late 2028, Bakken East open season through March 13 and potential FERC 7C timing tied to an FID with in‑service targets of late 2029 (west) and late 2030 (east), rate outcomes including a $5.8M annual Wyoming electric increase (effective Apr. 1, 2026), a $13M annual Idaho gas increase (effective Jan. 1, 2026) and a $10.8M Washington increase (effective Mar. 1, 2026), and financial position items including a post‑Badger debt‑to‑capitalization of ~49.1% and roughly 11.7 million follow‑on shares (offered at $19.70) expected to meet 2026 equity needs (forward sales settlement available through Dec. 6, 2027).Mdu Resources Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
57
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.88B | 1.76B | 1.80B | 1.75B | 3.45B |
| Gross Profit | 404.90M | 571.94M | 518.53M | 490.06M | 687.28M |
| EBITDA | 525.40M | 507.09M | 635.40M | 392.69M | 555.01M |
| Net Income | 190.40M | 281.11M | 414.71M | 367.49M | 378.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.76B | 7.04B | 7.83B | 9.66B | 8.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.21M | 50.20M | 48.88M | 34.83M | 54.16M |
| Total Debt | 2.74B | 2.29B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.98B | 4.35B | 4.93B | 6.07B | 5.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.77B | 2.69B | 2.91B | 3.59B | 3.38B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -318.60M | -20.51M | -187.10M | 67.48M | 10.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 473.40M | 502.32M | 332.63M | 510.06M | 495.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -780.86M | -552.68M | -540.79M | -638.88M | -885.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 268.80M | 40.30M | 204.62M | 155.17M | 384.71M |
Mdu Resources Group Technical Analysis
Positive
22.34
Price Trends
20.65
Positive
20.27
Positive
18.75
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
73.87
Negative
94.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.92, above the 50-day MA of 20.65, and above the 200-day MA of 18.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDU.
Mdu Resources Group Risk Analysis
Mdu Resources Group disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mdu Resources Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mdu Resources Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.55B | 8.64 | 10.05% | 0.21% | 10.31% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $8.32B | 23.29 | 20.28% | 0.63% | 1.23% | -22.77% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
57 Neutral | $4.56B | 20.95 | 6.94% | 2.76% | -57.80% | -57.40% | |
56 Neutral | $736.56M | -1.57 | -40.36% | 20.53% | -15.85% | -59.42% | |
52 Neutral | $630.99M | -1.54 | -13.99% | 1.90% | 32.39% | -19.35% | |
49 Neutral | $4.86B | -14.82 | -10.91% | 27.59% | -8.45% | 27.66% |
* Utilities Sector Average
MDU
Mdu Resources Group
22.34
6.17
38.12%
CODI
Compass Diversified Holdings
9.79
-6.73
-40.74%
IEP
Icahn Enterprises
7.63
1.07
16.24%
SEB
Seaboard
5,791.83
3,190.57
122.65%
VMI
Valmont
425.80
144.18
51.20%
FIP
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation
5.59
2.29
69.45%
Mdu Resources Group Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MDU Resources Group Releases Q4 and 2025 Results
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
Mdu Resources Group has released an investor presentation detailing its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, which is available through the investor relations section of its corporate website. The company clarified that the materia...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MDU Resources Extends WBI Energy Senior Notes Shelf Facility
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 15, 2026, WBI Energy Transmission, Inc., an indirect subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, Inc., amended its existing note purchase and private shelf agreement with PGIM, Inc. and other purchasers to extend through December 22, 2028 the pe...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MDU Resources Expands Forward Equity Offering for Financing
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
On December 3, 2025, MDU Resources Group, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement and related forward sale agreements for an underwritten public offering of its common stock, initially covering 10,152,284 forward shares that were borrowed from...
Private Placements and Financing
MDU Resources Extends Revolving Credit Agreement to 2030
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025
On December 11, 2025, MDU Resources Group, Inc. amended and restated its Five-Year Revolving Credit Agreement with U.S. Bank National Association and several lenders, extending the maturity date from May 31, 2028, to December 11, 2030. The agreeme...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MDU Resources Group Enters Forward Sale Agreements
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025
On December 3, 2025, MDU Resources Group, Inc. entered into forward sale agreements with Wells Fargo Bank, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase Bank for the sale of over 10 million shares of its common stock. The shares were borrowed and sold to un...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.