Mdu Res (MDU)
NYSE:MDU
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Mdu Resources Group
(NYSE:MDU)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$24.50
â–²(12.59% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (deeply negative TTM free cash flow) and moderate leverage amid uneven growth. Offsetting this, the stock’s technical trend is constructive and valuation is reasonable, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive on reaffirmed guidance and growth opportunities but flagged meaningful project execution and financing risks.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility customer growth
A steady regulated retail customer growth rate around 1%–2% supports predictable revenue expansion and rate base growth. As rates are reset through commissions, modest customer growth translates into durable, rate-recoverable earnings and underpins long-term cash flow stability across utility cycles.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow
Material negative free cash flow reflects heavy investment and/or working-capital demands, constraining internal funding for capex, dividends and project commitments. Over the next 2–6 months this increases reliance on external financing or equity issuance and reduces financial flexibility for growth initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility customer growth
A steady regulated retail customer growth rate around 1%–2% supports predictable revenue expansion and rate base growth. As rates are reset through commissions, modest customer growth translates into durable, rate-recoverable earnings and underpins long-term cash flow stability across utility cycles.
Read all positive factors
Mdu Resources Group (MDU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.63B
Dividend Yield2.76%
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.2
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-45.41%
EPS Growth-28.15%
CountryUS
Employees2,052
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryConglomerates
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding209,006,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,212,554
30 Day Avg. Volume1,789,165
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.64
Price to Book (P/B)1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio-12.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside5.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Mdu Resources Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery, and construction materials and services businesses in the United States. The company's Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity for residential, commerci...
How the Company Makes Money
MDU makes money primarily through (1) regulated utility revenues and (2) revenues from construction materials and related services, with the exact mix varying over time as the company has adjusted its portfolio.
1) Regulated utility revenue (elec...
Mdu Resources Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted strong commercial momentum (notably robust Bakken East open season interest and a large pipeline commitment), meaningful data center load under signed ESAs with a capital-light model benefiting retail customers, and continued regulatory progress and liquidity support. Offsetting these positives were weather-driven volume and earnings headwinds, a notable decline in pipeline segment earnings (~11%), and material execution and financing uncertainty tied to the large incremental Bakken East capex ($2.7B–$3.2B). Regulatory timing and cost volatility (steel, labor, compression) add risk to project economics and timing. On balance, the company reaffirmed guidance, emphasized a strong balance sheet and multiple financing options, and presented several growth opportunities, but also faces near-term operational and project execution risks.Positive Updates
Consolidated Quarterly Results and Guidance Affirmation
Q1 2026 earnings of $80.8 million, or $0.39 per share, compared to Q1 2025 earnings of $82.0 million, or $0.40 per share (consolidated EPS decline of ~2.5%; total earnings decline of ~1.5%). Company affirmed full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 and reiterated long-term EPS growth target of 6%–8% and targeted dividend payout ratio of 60%–70%.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Volume and Earnings Headwinds
Milder winter weather reduced consolidated earnings by approximately $0.03 per share for the quarter. Electric utilities experienced 10%–30% milder weather, negatively affecting retail sales (electric segment earnings fell to $14.5 million from $15.0 million, a ~3.3% decline). Natural gas utility earnings fell to $44.2 million from $44.7 million (~1.1% decline) with weather-driven volume impacts of roughly $5 million; temperatures were ~20% warmer in Idaho, ~30% warmer in Montana, and 10%–30% warmer across other service territory.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Quarterly Results and Guidance Affirmation
Q1 2026 earnings of $80.8 million, or $0.39 per share, compared to Q1 2025 earnings of $82.0 million, or $0.40 per share (consolidated EPS decline of ~2.5%; total earnings decline of ~1.5%). Company affirmed full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 and reiterated long-term EPS growth target of 6%–8% and targeted dividend payout ratio of 60%–70%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93–$1.00 per share (Q1 was $80.8M or $0.39/sh, with ~ $0.03/sh headwind from milder weather) and reiterated a long‑term EPS growth target of 6%–8% and a targeted annual dividend payout ratio of 60%–70%. They said the current capital plan is $3.1 billion and disclosed a potential incremental Bakken East investment of $2.7B–$3.2B (design assumptions: ~353 miles of mainline, ~21 miles of laterals, three new compressor stations plus compression at three existing stations), backed by ~1.4 Bcf/d of open‑season interest (≈40% under precedent agreements, including a $50M/year × 10‑year firm commitment from North Dakota), with a planned FERC Section 7 filing target in Q3 and in‑service timing in late 2029–2030. Other quantified updates included 580 MW of signed data‑center ESAs (180 MW online; 50 MW online from the second center, 50 MW ramping, +150 MW later this year, +100 MW in 2027, +50 MW in 2028), an average retail customer bill credit of ≈$70/year today (potentially >$200/year when fully online), combined utility customer growth of 1.4% YoY (target 1%–2%), and the company remains open to financing via balance‑sheet, partnerships or other structures.Mdu Resources Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.81B | 1.88B | 1.76B | 1.80B | 1.75B | 3.45B |
| Gross Profit | 508.65M | 404.90M | 571.94M | 518.53M | 490.06M | 687.28M |
| EBITDA | 526.22M | 525.40M | 507.09M | 635.40M | 392.69M | 555.01M |
| Net Income | 189.28M | 190.40M | 281.11M | 414.71M | 367.49M | 378.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.68B | 7.76B | 7.04B | 7.83B | 9.66B | 8.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 53.30M | 28.21M | 50.20M | 48.88M | 34.83M | 54.16M |
| Total Debt | 2.60B | 2.74B | 2.29B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.78B | 4.98B | 4.35B | 4.93B | 6.07B | 5.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.90B | 2.77B | 2.69B | 2.91B | 3.59B | 3.38B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -386.25M | -318.60M | -20.51M | -187.10M | 67.48M | 10.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 405.13M | 473.40M | 502.32M | 332.63M | 510.06M | 495.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -777.36M | -780.86M | -552.68M | -540.79M | -638.88M | -885.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 366.00M | 268.80M | 40.30M | 204.62M | 155.17M | 384.71M |
Mdu Resources Group Technical Analysis
Positive
21.76
Price Trends
21.66
Positive
20.99
Positive
19.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Positive
50.78
Neutral
22.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.35, above the 50-day MA of 21.66, and above the 200-day MA of 19.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDU.
Mdu Resources Group Risk Analysis
Mdu Resources Group disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mdu Resources Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mdu Resources Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.97B | 17.67 | 21.43% | 0.63% | 2.40% | 4.95% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $4.71B | 11.89 | 11.47% | 0.21% | 6.56% | 501.77% | |
64 Neutral | $4.63B | 13.17 | 6.80% | 2.76% | -45.41% | -28.15% | |
54 Neutral | $862.20M | -4.81 | -46.27% | 20.53% | 7.52% | -1.67% | |
52 Neutral | $532.92M | -1.28 | -41.74% | 1.90% | 72.20% | -267.01% | |
46 Neutral | $5.07B | -2.41 | -13.03% | 27.59% | 1.28% | 69.04% |
* Utilities Sector Average
MDU
Mdu Resources Group
22.16
5.61
33.87%
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Mdu Resources Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MDU Resources Expands Long-Term Incentive Plan, Affirms Governance
Positive
May 13, 2026
At its May 11, 2026 annual stockholders’ meeting, MDU Resources Group, Inc. secured approval of an amended and restated Long-Term Performance-Based Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of shares available for issuance by 6,564,000 to a total ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mdu Resources Posts Q1 2026 Investor Presentation Online
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Mdu Resources Group announced that, in connection with its first quarter 2026 financial results, it has released an investor presentation and posted it on the investor relations section of its corporate website. The company emphasized that informa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.