Mondelez International (MDLZ)
NASDAQ:MDLZ
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Mondelez International
(NASDAQ:MDLZ)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
â–²(11.44% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is primarily supported by durable revenue trends and strong free-cash-flow generation, but is held back by the sharp 2025 margin/return deterioration and higher leverage. Near-term technicals look extended, valuation is demanding at a ~33x P/E, and management’s outlook is cautious for 2026 due to a ~$1B Q1 hit and cocoa-hedge costs—partly offset by emerging-markets strength and a potential 2027 margin tailwind if cocoa normalization persists.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent and growing free cash flow ($3.2B in 2025, +41% YoY) underpins durable capital allocation flexibility. Strong cash generation supports reinvestment in brands and supply chain, dividend coverage and debt servicing, improving resilience through economic cycles and funding strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Sharp margin deterioration (2025)
Material margin compression in 2025 signals earnings vulnerability to input-cost shocks and pricing elasticity. Restoring prior profitability requires sustained pricing power, mix improvement or structural cost savings; until then returns and reinvestment capacity remain impaired and recovery may be gradual.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent and growing free cash flow ($3.2B in 2025, +41% YoY) underpins durable capital allocation flexibility. Strong cash generation supports reinvestment in brands and supply chain, dividend coverage and debt servicing, improving resilience through economic cycles and funding strategic initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Mondelez International (MDLZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$73.62B
Dividend Yield3.53%
Average Volume (3M)10.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.4
Beta (1Y)0.05
Revenue Growth4.13%
EPS Growth-5.19%
CountryUS
Employees90,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Confectioners
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.72
Shares Outstanding1,281,845,700
10 Day Avg. Volume11,653,769
30 Day Avg. Volume10,222,810
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)2.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.81
P/FCF Ratio21.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.17Price Target Upside15.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)3.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.72B
Mondelez International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits, including cookies, crac...
How the Company Makes Money
Mondelez International generates revenue primarily through the sales of its diverse range of snack products across various categories. The company employs a multi-channel revenue model that includes retail partnerships, e-commerce platforms, and d...
Mondelez International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Mondelez International is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Mondelez International is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMondelez International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously constructive outlook: management highlighted strong execution in 2025 (chocolate playbook, Biscoff success, emerging markets momentum, premium brand growth) and a multi-year plan to rebuild marketing spend and modernize the supply chain. Near-term headwinds include a ~ $1B Q1 inventory accounting impact, North American volume softness (biscuits down ~4% in recent months), northern European elasticity, and 2026 hedged cocoa costs that create short-term uncertainty. Management expects cocoa normalization to materially improve chocolate margins in 2027 and is positioning to invest behind growth while remaining agile in 2026.Positive Updates
Chocolate category resilience and disciplined execution
Mondelez reports the chocolate category remained resilient in 2025 despite significant price increases; the company executed its playbook (list pricing and price-pack architecture) successfully in many markets (notably India, Brazil, Australia, South Africa and ~50% of European markets). Penetration held while frequency and quantity declined, informing targeted recovery actions.
Negative Updates
Near-term $1B inventory accounting hit (Q1 2026)
Due to inventory accounting and pipeline costs locked at higher 2026 hedge levels, the company expects a one-time inventory adjustment impacting Q1 (predominantly) of approximately $1.0 billion, creating near-term profit headwinds.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Chocolate category resilience and disciplined execution
Mondelez reports the chocolate category remained resilient in 2025 despite significant price increases; the company executed its playbook (list pricing and price-pack architecture) successfully in many markets (notably India, Brazil, Australia, South Africa and ~50% of European markets). Penetration held while frequency and quantity declined, informing targeted recovery actions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mondelez guided to organic sales growth of 0–2% for 2026, with emerging markets expected to continue high‑single‑digit momentum (EMEA/AMEA and LatAm excluding Argentina strong) while developed markets are assumed to be down low‑ to mid‑single digits, chocolate pricing is expected to be roughly flat in 2026 (pricing net of cost modeled as slightly positive-to-neutral), and the company has built flexibility into the range given recent cocoa moves (management referenced cocoa around the ~3,000 level and noted 2026 pipeline hedges are locked at a higher cost than current spot). They expect cost headwinds to be front‑loaded (a one‑time inventory accounting adjustment of about $1 billion hitting Q1), higher costs in H1 vs H2, sequential improvement in volumes and EBIT through the year as A&C working‑media investments are stepped up (A&A was down ~25% y/y in 2025 vs 2024 and the plan is to more than recover that by 2026), plus further brand/media investment in 2027, and a material chocolate margin uplift and strong EPS growth anticipated in 2027.Mondelez International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 38.54B | 36.44B | 36.02B | 31.50B | 28.72B |
| Gross Profit | 10.79B | 14.26B | 13.76B | 11.31B | 11.25B |
| EBITDA | 4.65B | 8.07B | 7.64B | 4.76B | 5.85B |
| Net Income | 2.45B | 4.61B | 4.96B | 2.72B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 71.49B | 68.50B | 71.39B | 71.16B | 67.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.13B | 1.35B | 1.81B | 1.92B | 3.55B |
| Total Debt | 22.40B | 18.37B | 19.95B | 23.54B | 19.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 45.60B | 41.54B | 43.02B | 44.24B | 38.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.84B | 26.93B | 28.33B | 26.88B | 28.27B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.23B | 3.52B | 3.60B | 3.00B | 3.18B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.51B | 4.91B | 4.71B | 3.91B | 4.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.20B | 526.00M | 2.81B | -4.89B | -26.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.76B | -5.78B | -7.56B | -456.00M | -4.07B |
Mondelez International Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.43
Price Trends
58.51
Negative
56.93
Positive
60.39
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.56
Negative
48.97
Neutral
62.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDLZ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.55, below the 50-day MA of 58.51, and below the 200-day MA of 60.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MDLZ.
Mondelez International Risk Analysis
Mondelez International disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mondelez International reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mondelez International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $43.98B | 41.93 | 19.20% | 3.00% | 4.71% | -23.03% | |
63 Neutral | $73.62B | 28.42 | 9.43% | 3.53% | 4.13% | -5.19% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $35.83B | 18.30 | 8.29% | 3.12% | 6.77% | -29.84% | |
60 Neutral | $19.30B | 20.26 | 23.70% | 5.19% | -5.65% | 0.41% | |
54 Neutral | $25.46B | -4.90 | -13.44% | 6.75% | -3.70% | -431.05% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MDLZ
Mondelez International
57.43
-8.60
-13.03%
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Keurig Dr Pepper
26.37
-6.85
-20.61%
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31.09%
KHC
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21.51
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-23.90%
Mondelez International Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mondelez Establishes New $1.5 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Mondelez International entered into a new 364‑day senior unsecured revolving credit facility for $1.5 billion with a syndicate of lenders led by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., replacing its prior $1.5 billion 364‑day ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mondelez Elevates CFO Luca Zaramella to Chief Operating Officer
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Mondelēz International announced that longtime finance executive Luca Zaramella has been appointed Chief Operating Officer effective February 1, 2026, while retaining his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Financi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.