Kellanova (K) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.80B
• Dividend Yield: 2.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: -6.38%
• EPS Growth: 45.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 50
• Industry: Food Confectioners
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 347,669,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,857,237
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,310,425
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.33
• 1Y Price Target: $83.68
• Price Target Upside: 4.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $86.00 ▲(7.76% Upside)

Kellanova's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and stable cash flows, tempered by technical indicators showing mixed momentum and moderate valuation. The ongoing merger with Mars presents both opportunities and regulatory challenges.

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

Acquisition Risks

If the deal were to be outright rejected by the EC, the downside risk to the stock price could be as high as ~35%.

Financial Performance

K's recently reported earnings per share missed consensus estimates due to a shortfall in organic sales growth and a gross margin miss.

Regulatory Concerns

The European Commission announced an investigation into the proposed K/Mars transaction, citing concerns about the potential JointCo’s expanded share of store, which could increase bargaining power when negotiating pricing with retailers.

Kellanova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kellanova, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets snacks and convenience foods in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Australia, and Africa. Its principal products consist of snacks, such as crackers, savory snacks, toaster pastries, cereal bars, granola bars, and bites; and convenience foods, including ready-to-eat cereals, frozen waffles, veggie foods, and noodles; and crisps. The company offers its products under the Kellogg's, Cheez-It, Pringles, Austin, Parati, RXBAR, Eggo, Morningstar Farms, Bisco, Club, Luxe, Minueto, Special K, Toasteds, Town House, Zesta, Zoo Cartoon, Choco Krispis, Crunchy Nut, Kashi, Nutri-Grain, Squares, Zucaritas, Rice Krispies Treats, Sucrilhos, Pop-Tarts, K-Time, Sunibrite, Split Stix, LCMs, Coco Pops, Krave, Frosties, Rice Krispies Squares, Incogmeato, Veggitizers, Gardenburger, Trink, Carr's, Kellogg's Extra, Müsli, Fruit ‘n Fibre, Kellogg's Crunchy Nut, Country Store, Smacks, Honey Bsss, Zimmy's, Toppas, Tresor, Froot Ring, Chocos, Chex, Guardian, Just Right, Sultana Bran, Rice Bubbles, Sustain, Choco Krispies, Melvin, Cornelius, Chocovore, Poperto, Pops the Bee, and Sammy the Seal brand names. It sells its products to retailers through direct sales forces, as well as brokers and distributors. The company was formerly known as Kellogg Company and changed its name to Kellanova in October 2023. Kellanova was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Kellanova generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food products across multiple channels, including retail, e-commerce, and foodservice. Key revenue streams include branded consumer products, which are sold through supermarkets, convenience stores, and online platforms, as well as private label offerings. The company benefits from strong brand loyalty and market share in its core categories. Additionally, Kellanova engages in strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers, enhancing its market reach and promotional capabilities, which further contribute to its earnings.

Kellanova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kellanova shows strong profitability and operational efficiency with solid margins. However, the declining revenue trend and moderate leverage present concerns that need monitoring. Cash flow operations are stable but show slight pressure in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Kellanova shows a stable performance in terms of profitability with a healthy gross profit margin of 52.2% in TTM. However, the company is experiencing a negative revenue growth trend, with a decline from $15.3 billion in 2022 to $12.6 billion TTM. The net profit margin is strong at 10.9% TTM, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain solid, underscoring operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59, indicating a reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 25.3%, showing a reasonable equity base. Return on equity is robust at 35.2% TTM, suggesting efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Kellanova's cash flow situation is stable, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.10, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow has decreased slightly, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -8.2%, potentially signaling caution in capital expenditures or operational efficiency improvements.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.75B	13.12B	12.65B	14.18B	13.77B
Gross Profit	4.69B	4.40B	3.73B	4.49B	4.72B
EBITDA	2.38B	1.76B	1.64B	2.66B	2.38B
Net Income	1.34B	951.00M	960.00M	1.49B	1.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.63B	15.62B	18.50B	18.18B	18.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	694.00M	274.00M	299.00M	286.00M	435.00M
Total Debt	6.34B	6.53B	7.16B	7.73B	8.11B
Total Liabilities	11.75B	12.25B	14.12B	13.96B	14.36B
Stockholders Equity	3.77B	3.17B	3.94B	3.72B	3.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.13B	968.00M	1.16B	1.15B	1.48B
Operating Cash Flow	1.76B	1.65B	1.65B	1.70B	1.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-750.00M	-562.00M	-448.00M	-528.00M	-585.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-607.00M	-1.11B	-1.08B	-1.31B	-1.39B

Kellanova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 79.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For K, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 79.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.01, above the 50-day MA of 79.72, and below the 200-day MA of 80.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for K.

Kellanova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HSY	78 Outperform	$37.18B	24.01	35.89%	2.99%	2.55%	-16.52%
GIS	70 Outperform	$26.76B	12.24	24.57%	4.89%	-1.87%	-5.16%
MDLZ	67 Neutral	$80.29B	22.63	13.51%	3.03%	3.14%	-5.80%
K	65 Neutral	$27.80B	20.95	36.00%	2.86%	-6.38%	45.73%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.51	-3.60%	3.15%	2.60%	-5.31%
STZ	62 Neutral	$27.92B	49.10	-5.05%	2.56%	-0.47%	-117.62%
KHC	60 Neutral	$32.79B	12.81	-11.68%	5.78%	-3.83%	-384.08%

Kellanova Corporate Events

Kellanova and Mars Merger Clears FTC Review

On June 25, 2025, Kellanova and Mars, Incorporated announced that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission had completed its antitrust review of Mars’ pending acquisition of Kellanova without any conditions. This marks a significant milestone towards the merger, which is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending European Commission approval. The merger aims to combine the complementary strengths of both companies, enhancing their global snacking business and better meeting consumer needs.

Kellanova Faces EU Investigation on Merger Deal

Kellanova, a Delaware corporation, has entered into a Merger Agreement with Acquiror 10VB8, LLC and Mars, Incorporated, where Kellanova will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Acquiror. The European Commission has initiated a Phase II investigation into the merger, which is expected to close towards the end of 2025, pending regulatory approvals.