Kellanova (K) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.73B
• Dividend Yield: 2.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.07
• Revenue Growth: -6.38%
• EPS Growth: 45.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Food Confectioners
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 347,669,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,520,466
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,061,754
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.33
• 1Y Price Target: $83.45
• Price Target Upside: 4.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $85.00 ▲(6.56% Upside)

Kellanova's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and operational efficiency, but is tempered by declining revenue and moderate leverage. Technical analysis suggests a neutral to slightly bearish trend, while valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation. Corporate events add uncertainty due to the EU investigation into the merger with Mars, despite positive progress with the FTC.

Positive Factors

Analyst Rating

Analyst rates K Market-Perform with a price target of $83.

Market Position

Direct overlap between K and Mars in individual food categories is very limited, and other comparable companies have larger 'must-have' brands.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

K's recently reported earnings per share missed consensus estimates due to a shortfall in organic sales growth and a gross margin miss.

Regulatory Concerns

The European Commission announced an investigation into the proposed K/Mars transaction, citing concerns about the potential JointCo's expanded share of store, which could increase bargaining power when negotiating pricing with retailers.

Stock Price Risk

If the deal were to be outright rejected by the EC, the downside risk to the stock price could be as high as ~35%.

Kellanova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kellanova, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets snacks and convenience foods in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Australia, and Africa. Its principal products consist of snacks, such as crackers, savory snacks, toaster pastries, cereal bars, granola bars, and bites; and convenience foods, including ready-to-eat cereals, frozen waffles, veggie foods, and noodles; and crisps. The company offers its products under the Kellogg's, Cheez-It, Pringles, Austin, Parati, RXBAR, Eggo, Morningstar Farms, Bisco, Club, Luxe, Minueto, Special K, Toasteds, Town House, Zesta, Zoo Cartoon, Choco Krispis, Crunchy Nut, Kashi, Nutri-Grain, Squares, Zucaritas, Rice Krispies Treats, Sucrilhos, Pop-Tarts, K-Time, Sunibrite, Split Stix, LCMs, Coco Pops, Krave, Frosties, Rice Krispies Squares, Incogmeato, Veggitizers, Gardenburger, Trink, Carr's, Kellogg's Extra, Müsli, Fruit ‘n Fibre, Kellogg's Crunchy Nut, Country Store, Smacks, Honey Bsss, Zimmy's, Toppas, Tresor, Froot Ring, Chocos, Chex, Guardian, Just Right, Sultana Bran, Rice Bubbles, Sustain, Choco Krispies, Melvin, Cornelius, Chocovore, Poperto, Pops the Bee, and Sammy the Seal brand names. It sells its products to retailers through direct sales forces, as well as brokers and distributors. The company was formerly known as Kellogg Company and changed its name to Kellanova in October 2023. Kellanova was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Kellanova makes money primarily through the sale of its packaged food products across various categories such as cereals, snacks, and plant-based foods. The company's revenue streams are diversified across different geographical regions and distribution channels, including retail, e-commerce, and food service. Key partnerships with retailers and distributors enable Kellanova to maintain a strong market presence and drive sales. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and product innovation to strengthen its brand portfolio and capture new market opportunities, contributing to its earnings.

Kellanova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kellanova shows strong profitability and operational efficiency with solid margins. However, the declining revenue trend and moderate leverage present concerns that need monitoring. Cash flow operations are stable but show slight pressure in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Kellanova shows a stable performance in terms of profitability with a healthy gross profit margin of 52.2% in TTM. However, the company is experiencing a negative revenue growth trend, with a decline from $15.3 billion in 2022 to $12.6 billion TTM. The net profit margin is strong at 10.9% TTM, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain solid, underscoring operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59, indicating a reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 25.3%, showing a reasonable equity base. Return on equity is robust at 35.2% TTM, suggesting efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Kellanova's cash flow situation is stable, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.10, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow has decreased slightly, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -8.2%, potentially signaling caution in capital expenditures or operational efficiency improvements.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.75B	13.12B	12.65B	14.18B	13.77B
Gross Profit	4.69B	4.40B	3.73B	4.49B	4.72B
EBITDA	2.38B	1.76B	1.64B	2.66B	2.38B
Net Income	1.34B	951.00M	960.00M	1.49B	1.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.63B	15.62B	18.50B	18.18B	18.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	694.00M	274.00M	299.00M	286.00M	435.00M
Total Debt	6.34B	6.53B	7.16B	7.73B	8.11B
Total Liabilities	11.75B	12.25B	14.12B	13.96B	14.36B
Stockholders Equity	3.77B	3.17B	3.94B	3.72B	3.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.13B	968.00M	1.16B	1.15B	1.48B
Operating Cash Flow	1.76B	1.65B	1.65B	1.70B	1.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-750.00M	-562.00M	-448.00M	-528.00M	-585.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-607.00M	-1.11B	-1.08B	-1.31B	-1.39B

Kellanova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 79.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For K, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 79.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.79, below the 50-day MA of 80.20, and below the 200-day MA of 80.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for K.

Kellanova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HSY	75 Outperform	$38.30B	25.11	35.89%	2.90%	2.55%	-16.52%
MKC	69 Neutral	$18.73B	24.36	14.19%	2.52%	0.89%	4.85%
Sector *	67 Neutral	S$3.18B	15.21	13.43%	4.39%	4.41%	-17.10%
MDLZ	67 Neutral	$80.61B	22.75	13.51%	3.02%	3.14%	-5.80%
K	64 Neutral	$27.73B	20.85	36.00%	2.85%	-6.38%	45.73%
GIS	63 Neutral	$26.66B	11.96	24.57%	4.92%	-1.87%	-5.16%
KHC	56 Neutral	$32.00B	12.81	-11.68%	5.97%	-3.83%	-384.08%

Kellanova Corporate Events

Kellanova and Mars Merger Clears FTC Review

On June 25, 2025, Kellanova and Mars, Incorporated announced that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission had completed its antitrust review of Mars’ pending acquisition of Kellanova without any conditions. This marks a significant milestone towards the merger, which is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending European Commission approval. The merger aims to combine the complementary strengths of both companies, enhancing their global snacking business and better meeting consumer needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (K) stock is a Hold with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kellanova stock, see the K Stock Forecast page.

Kellanova Faces EU Investigation on Merger Deal

Kellanova, a Delaware corporation, has entered into a Merger Agreement with Acquiror 10VB8, LLC and Mars, Incorporated, where Kellanova will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Acquiror. The European Commission has initiated a Phase II investigation into the merger, which is expected to close towards the end of 2025, pending regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (K) stock is a Hold with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kellanova stock, see the K Stock Forecast page.

Kellanova Announces CFO Resignation and New Appointment

On May 6, 2025, Kellanova announced the resignation of Amit Banati, the Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 9, 2025, as he pursues another opportunity. The company appointed John Renwick as the acting Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 9, 2025, who has been with the company since 2000 and has extensive experience in finance and investor relations.