Medline (MDLN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $62.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.9
• Beta (1Y): 3.40
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 43,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Instruments & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 811,418,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,994,195
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,556,617
• PEG Ratio: -4.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.83
• 1Y Price Target: $51.60
• Price Target Upside: 15.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $53.00 ▲(18.97% Upside)
• Action: N/A Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: N/A 02/27/26

The score is primarily driven by solid financial performance (strong growth and improving gross margin, but leveraged balance sheet and mixed earnings-to-cash quality). Technicals are supportive with positive momentum indicators. Valuation tempers the rating due to a higher P/E, while the IPO and related deleveraging provide a modest positive offset.

Positive Factors

Diversified manufacturing & distribution model

Integrated manufacturing plus third-party distribution creates durable revenue diversification and high customer stickiness. Long-term hospital contracts, GPO participation and logistics services drive recurring orders, scale purchasing advantages and margin resilience across care settings.

Revenue scaling and improving gross margins

Sustained top-line expansion alongside rising gross margins suggests durable improvements in pricing, product mix or cost control. This supports ongoing cash generation and reinvestment capacity, making growth more self-funding and strengthening competitive position over the medium term.

IPO proceeds used to reduce debt; governance upgrades

Proceeds-driven deleveraging materially reduces refinancing risk and interest burden, while new governance and incentive structures improve alignment with public investors. Together these steps increase strategic flexibility for capital allocation and long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage remains

A debt-to-equity ratio near or above 1x leaves limited balance sheet flexibility and raises sensitivity to slower demand or margin pressure. High leverage can constrain investment, increase interest expense risk, and reduce the company’s ability to absorb shocks over the medium term.

Margin volatility and weak net margin conversion

Inconsistent operating leverage means revenue growth doesn't reliably translate into higher net profits. Persistent margin volatility reduces earnings predictability, complicates planning for reinvestment or deleveraging, and can undermine long-term return expectations.

Earnings-to-cash quality inconsistency

When cash generation lags reported earnings, underlying profitability may be weaker than accruals suggest. Reliance on working-capital for growth can tighten liquidity and force incremental financing, elevating operational risk during cyclical downturns or rapid expansion phases.

Medline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Medline Inc. manufactures med-surg products serving the hospital, surgery centers, physician offices, post-acute facilities, and nursing home sites of care in the United States and Internationally. It operates through two segments: Medline Brand and Supply Chain Solutions. The Medline Brand segment procures and manufactures products from three product categories include surgical solutions, front line care, and laboratory and diagnostics. Its front line care offers med-surg products for patient-facing needs, including wound care products, exam gloves, skin care and incontinence products, environment cleaning supplies, textiles, hand sanitizer, durable medical equipment, patient plastics, and decolonization and infection control products. Its surgical solutions provide operating room and perioperative environment product solutions, including surgical procedure trays, drapes and gowns, personal protective equipment, sterile wraps, surgical instruments, surgeon's gloves, procedure kits, and orthopedic implants. Its laboratory and diagnostics offer laboratory and diagnostic product solutions, including point of care testing, analyzers and instrumentation, lab and diagnostic consumables, diagnostic instruments, vital signs monitors, and anatomic pathology and phlebotomy products. It provides its products to domestic and international consumers. The Supply Chain Solutions segment procures and distributes a variety of third-party products from national brands. It provides logistics and supply chain optimization services to domestic and international consumers. It also provides supply chain optimization services such as, consulting engagements, outsourced warehouse and technology management, put-away-ready packaging, third-party logistics, inventory rationalization, and route planning. Medline Inc. was founded in 1966 and is based in Northfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Medline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling and improving gross margin support the score, and free cash flow improved in 2025. Offsetting this are meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~1.17x in 2025), some margin volatility, and less consistent earnings-to-cash alignment (operating cash flow covering ~70–79% of net income).

Income Statement

Revenue is scaling well, with 2025 showing a very strong jump versus prior years, and profitability has normalized after a weak 2023. Gross margin improved steadily (about 22.5% in 2023 to 26.4% in 2025), indicating better pricing/mix or cost control. The main drawback is margin volatility: net margin fell from ~4.7% (2024) to ~4.1% (2025) and operating profitability also eased versus 2024, suggesting growth is not fully translating into incremental profit.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful, with debt roughly in line with equity (debt-to-equity around ~1.0x in 2023–2024 and rising to ~1.17x in 2025), which reduces flexibility if operating conditions tighten. Equity declined notably in 2025 while debt also moved lower, but the net effect is higher leverage. A positive is improved shareholder returns versus 2023, with return on equity rising to ~10.8% in 2025, though the higher leverage profile remains a key risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and relatively steady, with operating cash flow around $1.7B across the last three years and free cash flow improving in 2025 (strong growth versus 2024). Free cash flow conversion is strong in 2025 (free cash flow roughly matching net income). The main weakness is that operating cash flow covers only about 70–79% of net income across the period, implying working-capital or non-cash timing effects that make earnings quality less consistent.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.43B	25.51B	23.23B
Gross Profit	7.52B	6.29B	5.22B
EBITDA	2.92B	3.53B	2.59B
Net Income	1.16B	1.20B	234.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.48B	35.98B	36.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.94B	250.00M	1.58B
Total Debt	12.56B	16.90B	16.83B
Total Liabilities	19.20B	19.45B	19.14B
Stockholders Equity	10.74B	16.52B	16.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.74B	1.41B	1.40B
Operating Cash Flow	1.74B	1.77B	1.69B
Investing Cash Flow	-474.00M	-1.49B	-312.00M
Financing Cash Flow	399.00M	-1.61B	-191.00M

Medline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BDX	68 Neutral	$50.25B	28.83	6.96%	2.13%	8.23%	-2.04%
MMSI	68 Neutral	$4.59B	36.30	8.67%	―	11.49%	-2.89%
MDLN	65 Neutral	$62.41B	32.86	―	―	―	―
ICUI	57 Neutral	$3.72B	6,121.14	-0.35%	―	-0.81%	93.27%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
TFX	50 Neutral	$5.39B	-5.94	-5.26%	1.11%	5.43%	-245.18%
BAX	47 Neutral	$10.48B	-12.13	-13.75%	2.75%	-21.20%	-325.40%

Medline Corporate Events

Medline Inc. Completes IPO and Implements Governance Changes

On December 16, 2025, Medline Inc. put in place a suite of governance and investor-rights agreements tied to its initial public offering, including an amended and restated limited partnership agreement for Medline Holdings, a tax receivable agreement, an exchange agreement, registration rights and director nomination arrangements with affiliates of Blackstone, Carlyle, Hellman & Friedman and the Mills Family, as well as an information and access agreement with Hux Investment Pte. Ltd., formalizing the rights and ongoing influence of its private equity backers and other pre-IPO owners. Effective the same date, the company also appointed Todd M. Bluedorn to its board and audit committee with a restricted stock unit grant vesting in 2027, adopted a 2025 Omnibus Incentive Plan and a 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan to align director, executive and employee compensation with shareholder interests, and brought into force an amended and restated charter and bylaws that authorize up to 50 billion shares each of Class A and Class B common stock and 5 billion shares of preferred stock, providing significant capital-raising and structural flexibility. On December 18, 2025, Medline completed its IPO of 248,439,654 Class A shares at $29 per share net of underwriting discounts, using roughly $5.1 billion in proceeds to acquire corresponding Common Units of Medline Holdings and facilitate deleveraging by repaying in full its New Euro Term Loan Facility and a substantial portion of its 2028 Refinancing Term Loan Facility, while additional proceeds of about $2.0 billion were used to purchase or redeem shares and units from certain pre-IPO owners, collectively reducing leverage, reshaping the capitalization and partially monetizing legacy investors’ stakes.