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Medline
(NASDAQ:MDLN)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(2.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
MDLN scores in the mid-range primarily due to solid financial performance (strong growth and improving gross margin, supported by steady cash generation) and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). The main offsets are balance-sheet leverage risk, mixed earnings-call implications from lowered EBITDA guidance and partly permanent cost pressure, and a relatively expensive valuation (P/E 32.46) with no dividend yield support provided.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth and Customer Wins
Sustained double-digit growth and strong customer wins indicate effective commercial execution and expanding demand. New prime-vendor partnerships across healthcare channels can support recurring revenue and strengthen Medline’s market position.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Financial Leverage
Elevated leverage reduces flexibility if demand, margins, or cash conversion weaken. It can also constrain investment choices and increase sensitivity to refinancing conditions, making balance-sheet management an ongoing fundamental risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth and Customer Wins
Sustained double-digit growth and strong customer wins indicate effective commercial execution and expanding demand. New prime-vendor partnerships across healthcare channels can support recurring revenue and strengthen Medline’s market position.
Read all positive factors
Medline (MDLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.8
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth12.12%
EPS Growth-46.11%
CountryUS
Employees45,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryMedical - Instruments & Supplies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.86
Shares Outstanding877,351,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,470,786
30 Day Avg. Volume7,726,911
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.96
Price to Book (P/B)3.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.20
P/FCF Ratio26.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.89Price Target Upside33.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)1.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$31.23B
Medline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medline Inc. is a global manufacturer of medical and surgical products, catering to a broad spectrum of healthcare providers. Their clientele includes hospitals, surgical centers, physician practices, post-acute care facilities, and nursing homes,...
How the Company Makes Money
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Medline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong top-line momentum (12% Q2 sales growth), segment wins, improved sales guidance and robust cash generation are significant positives. However, meaningful margin pressure—driving a lower adjusted EBITDA outlook—stems from the Tracy distribution center fire, ongoing quality remediation, retail softness, and increased operating/COGS pressures. The company is investing to support long-term growth and expects some costs to be transitory, but a sizable portion will increase the baseline cost structure.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales grew 12% year-over-year in Q2 to $7.7 billion and 11% for the first half to $15.0 billion, driven primarily by organic growth with minimal FX impact.
Negative Updates
Lowered Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $3.3 billion–$3.4 billion from $3.5 billion–$3.6 billion despite raising sales guidance, reflecting multiple margin headwinds.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales grew 12% year-over-year in Q2 to $7.7 billion and 11% for the first half to $15.0 billion, driven primarily by organic growth with minimal FX impact.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medline raised full‑year organic sales guidance to 9%–10% (from 8.5%–9.5%)—which includes $89M of IEEPA tariff customer repayments—while lowering full‑year adjusted EBITDA to $3.3B–$3.4B (from $3.5B–$3.6B); Q2 net sales were $7.7B (+12% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA was $1.1B (+13% YoY) including a $243M net IEEPA benefit (underlying Q2 adjusted EBITDA ≈ $817M and margin 13.8%, +20 bps). For the first half, net sales were $15B (+11%), Medline Brand sales were $3.5B in Q2 (+7%, $7B H1) and Supply Chain Solutions were $4.1B in Q2 (+16%, $8B H1); free cash flow was $920M H1, cash $2.3B, short‑term investments $350M and net leverage improved to 2.9x. Management now estimates full‑year net tariff impact of ≈$350M (down $140M from prior $490M), expects Tracy fire‑related net income impacts of $336M to date plus $50M–$100M more in H2 (some excluded from adjusted EBITDA), raised CapEx guidance to $500M–$600M (H1 spend $207M), noted >$650M of new customer signings YTD (≈65% of $1B goal), and said roughly half of the incremental earnings headwinds are transitory while half are permanent (≈$200M incremental costs with ~1/3 in Q3 and ~2/3 in Q4).Medline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 29.94B | 28.43B | 25.51B | 23.23B |
| Gross Profit | 7.49B | 7.52B | 6.29B | 5.22B |
| EBITDA | 2.55B | 1.95B | 3.53B | 2.59B |
| Net Income | 691.00M | 1.16B | 1.20B | 234.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 39.35B | 38.48B | 35.98B | 36.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.68B | 1.94B | 250.00M | 1.58B |
| Total Debt | 12.64B | 12.56B | 16.90B | 16.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 20.27B | 19.20B | 19.45B | 19.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.57B | 10.74B | 16.52B | 16.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.03B | 1.30B | 1.41B | 1.40B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.99B | 1.74B | 1.77B | 1.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -796.00M | -474.00M | -1.49B | -312.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 564.00M | 399.00M | -1.61B | -191.00M |
Medline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.42B | 37.05 | 9.07% | ― | 10.51% | 20.67% | |
65 Neutral | $52.30B | 57.83 | 3.79% | 2.39% | -2.56% | -40.38% | |
64 Neutral | $45.04B | 39.84 | 5.45% | ― | 12.12% | -46.11% | |
59 Neutral | $5.88B | -5.96 | -31.83% | 1.03% | -14.49% | -644.98% | |
57 Neutral | $13.62B | -12.91 | -16.60% | 0.89% | 5.36% | -632.85% | |
57 Neutral | $4.57B | 152.37 | 1.41% | ― | -8.84% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
MDLN
Medline
34.26
-6.74
-16.44%
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28.60%
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182.84
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MMSI
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90.78
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138.83
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Medline Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Medline Announces COO Retirement, Launches Leadership Transition
Negative
Jul 9, 2026
Medline Inc. announced that Chief Operating Officer Stephen L. Miller notified the company on July 7, 2026, that he will retire from his role effective August 30, 2026, citing health-related reasons. The company said it has begun a search for his ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Medline Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay Practices
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Medline Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which investors elected all 12 board nominees to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting and ratified Ernst Young LLP as independent auditor for the fiscal...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Medline Completes Major Refinancing and Secondary Share Offering
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Medline completed a major refinancing by issuing $1.25 billion of 5.000% senior secured notes due 2031 and $750 million of 5.250% senior secured notes due 2033, while simultaneously establishing a new $2.75 billion senior secured ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.