Mister Car Wash (MCW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 984.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 6.98%
• EPS Growth: 22.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,640
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Personal Products & Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 327,568,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,054,108
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 984,454
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 59.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.84
• 1Y Price Target: $7.06
• Price Target Upside: 0.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(6.69% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial results (growth and profitability recovery) but held back by leverage and uneven free cash flow. Technically, the trend is positive with strong momentum, though indicators look stretched. Valuation is middling with a ~22.5 P/E and no dividend support, while the earnings call tone was broadly constructive with high-end guidance tempered by retail and competitive headwinds.

Positive Factors

Recurring revenue from Unlimited Wash Club

A ~2.3M Unlimited Wash Club base with 7% Q4 growth creates durable, subscription-driven revenue. Recurring memberships improve demand predictability, raise customer lifetime value, and support steady unit economics, insulating revenue from single-visit volatility over months.

Scale via new builds and acquisitions

A large, growing national footprint (527 sites across 21 states and ongoing M&A) provides durable advantages: better unit economics, marketing scale for memberships, and local market density that supports cross-site promotions and higher throughput over the medium term.

Improving profitability and margins

Transition from losses in 2021 to consistent positive earnings and margin expansion to ~10% reflects operational leverage from scale and recurring revenue. Sustained margin improvement supports cash generation and reinvestment capacity if maintained across 2–6 months.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and balance-sheet sensitivity

Although leverage has improved, absolute debt remains elevated, leaving the company sensitive to macro shocks or tighter credit. High leverage constrains flexibility for capex, acquisitions, or weathering weaker demand without refinancing or asset sales over the medium term.

Uneven and limited free cash flow

Volatile FCF and low conversion (~10% of net income in 2025) limit the firm's ability to reduce debt, fund growth, or return capital without external financing. Persistent capex or acquisition spending could keep FCF constrained, affecting long-term financial resilience.

Competitive pressure and retail weakness

New local competitors and declining retail comps reduce pricing power and can slow membership and same-store sales expansion. Ongoing competition in overlap markets could compress margins and require higher marketing or promotional spend to defend share over the coming months.

Mister Car Wash Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mister Car Wash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides conveyorized car wash services in the United States. It offers express exterior and interior cleaning services. As of June 16, 2022, it operated 407 car wash locations in 21 states. The company was formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Mister Car Wash, Inc. in March 2021. Mister Car Wash, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Mister Car Wash generates revenue primarily through its car wash services and subscription model. Customers can choose from one-time washes or opt for a monthly subscription that offers unlimited washes for a fixed fee. This subscription model not only provides a steady stream of recurring revenue but also enhances customer loyalty. Additionally, MCW earns revenue from upselling related services such as detailing and interior cleaning. The company has established partnerships with various suppliers for car wash equipment and eco-friendly cleaning products, which can help optimize operational efficiency and reduce costs, further contributing to its overall profitability.

Mister Car Wash Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are solid (steady revenue growth and improved profitability into 2025), but the balance sheet still carries meaningful leverage risk and free cash flow has been volatile with only modest improvement recently.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2022–2025 (annual growth of ~6%–16% recently, with 2025 showing a very strong jump vs. 2024). Profitability has improved materially from the 2021 loss to solid positive earnings in 2022–2025, with net margin around ~10% in 2025 (up from ~7% in 2024). A key weakness is margin volatility: net margin peaked in 2022 and then compressed in 2023–2024 before improving again in 2025, suggesting earnings power is not yet fully stable.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears to be improving, with debt relative to equity declining meaningfully by 2025 versus 2021–2024, and equity building over time. Returns on equity are positive in recent years (~7%–9% in 2024–2025), indicating the business is generating profits on shareholders’ capital. The main risk remains balance-sheet leverage: debt is still large in absolute terms, and the company previously carried very high leverage (including extremely elevated debt-to-equity in 2020 due to unusually low equity), which increases sensitivity to downturns and financing conditions.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and has generally increased over time, which supports earnings quality and day-to-day financial flexibility. However, free cash flow is uneven: it was negative in 2023 and 2024, then turned modestly positive in 2025, implying capital spending or other cash needs have frequently absorbed operating cash. In 2025, free cash flow is low relative to net income (roughly 10%), which limits near-term capacity for debt reduction, buybacks, or aggressive reinvestment without external funding.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.05B	994.73M	927.07M	876.51M	758.36M
Gross Profit	661.22M	704.02M	563.35M	290.26M	493.19M
EBITDA	302.95M	178.93M	248.14M	249.00M	42.84M
Net Income	103.08M	70.24M	80.13M	112.90M	-22.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.17B	3.10B	2.88B	2.97B	2.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.45M	67.46M	19.05M	65.22M	19.74M
Total Debt	973.22M	1.87B	1.77B	1.71B	1.67B
Total Liabilities	2.04B	2.10B	1.97B	2.16B	1.79B
Stockholders Equity	1.13B	998.35M	915.03M	801.13M	657.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	30.30M	-81.46M	-123.47M	37.59M	47.59M
Operating Cash Flow	285.70M	248.62M	204.65M	229.20M	173.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-206.85M	-199.85M	-259.37M	-190.13M	-543.83M
Financing Cash Flow	-117.96M	-275.00K	8.61M	6.29M	272.46M

Mister Car Wash Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.98, above the 50-day MA of 5.85, and above the 200-day MA of 5.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.28 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCW.

Mister Car Wash Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ROL	80 Outperform	$28.99B	55.38	38.94%	1.12%	11.17%	9.81%
FTDR	72 Outperform	$4.12B	15.82	91.16%	―	11.88%	18.08%
MCW	66 Neutral	$2.29B	22.45	8.84%	―	6.98%	22.81%
SCI	65 Neutral	$11.16B	21.07	32.72%	1.66%	3.41%	7.94%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BFAM	61 Neutral	$4.01B	21.18	14.75%	―	9.38%	74.27%
CSV	59 Neutral	$697.83M	14.24	21.96%	1.06%	0.99%	37.55%

Mister Car Wash Corporate Events

Mister Car Wash to Go Private in LGP Buyout

On February 17, 2026, Mister Car Wash agreed to be acquired by affiliates of Leonard Green & Partners via a merger in which shareholders other than the sponsor group will receive $7.00 in cash per share, with the buyer funding the transaction in part through a committed $900 million term loan. A special committee of independent directors and the full board endorsed the deal as fair to unaffiliated investors, while LGP-affiliated principal stockholders holding about 67% of the voting power approved the merger by written consent, paving the way for a go-private transaction that will delist the stock from Nasdaq and terminate public reporting once closing conditions, including antitrust clearances and mailing of an information statement, are satisfied.

The transaction includes cash-out treatment for restricted stock units and in-the-money options, termination fee protections on both sides, and rollover agreements through which the LGP-affiliated principal stockholders will exchange a portion of their holdings for equity in the new parent entity. Announced alongside solid 2025 results, including 6% annual revenue growth to just over $1 billion, higher adjusted EBITDA and a 7% increase in Unlimited Wash Club membership to about 2.3 million, the deal caps a year of expansion to 548 locations and signals a shift from public capital markets to private ownership as management halts guidance and cancels its earnings call pending completion of the buyout.

The most recent analyst rating on (MCW) stock is a Buy with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mister Car Wash stock, see the MCW Stock Forecast page.