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Mister Car Wash (MCW)
NASDAQ:MCW
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Mister Car Wash
(NASDAQ:MCW)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(10.29% Upside)
Mister Car Wash's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. Strong financial performance and positive earnings call developments are offset by bearish technical indicators and moderate valuation. The company's ability to improve profitability and cash flow management will be crucial for future performance.
Positive Factors
Subscription Model Strength
The growth in the Unlimited Wash Club membership highlights the strength of the subscription model, providing stable recurring revenue and customer loyalty, which supports long-term financial stability.
Operational Efficiency
A strong gross profit margin reflects effective cost control and operational efficiency, which are crucial for sustaining profitability and competitive advantage in the long term.
Debt Management
The reduction in long-term debt enhances financial resilience and reduces interest obligations, improving the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Retail Sales Decline
The decline in retail sales indicates vulnerability to external factors like weather and consumer spending, which could impact revenue stability and require strategic adjustments to mitigate risks.
Increased Operating Expenses
Rising operating expenses can pressure margins and reduce profitability, necessitating improved cost management strategies to maintain financial health and competitive positioning.
Moderated Store Expansion
A slower pace of new store openings may limit growth potential and market expansion, impacting long-term revenue growth and competitive edge in the industry.
Mister Car Wash (MCW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.78B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.7
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth7.21%
EPS Growth20.31%
CountryUS
Employees6,640
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPersonal Products & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding327,275,240
10 Day Avg. Volume1,373,787
30 Day Avg. Volume1,408,619
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.16
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.35
P/FCF Ratio-28.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.90Price Target Upside45.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
Mister Car Wash Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMister Car Wash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides conveyorized car wash services in the United States. It offers express exterior and interior cleaning services. As of June 16, 2022, it operated 407 car wash locations in 21 states. The company was formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Mister Car Wash, Inc. in March 2021. Mister Car Wash, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyMister Car Wash primarily makes money through its car wash service offerings, which include single wash purchases and subscription-based models. The subscription model, known as the Unlimited Wash Club, provides customers with unlimited car washes for a monthly fee, contributing significantly to steady recurring revenue. Additionally, the company generates income from the sale of car care products and additional detailing services at their locations. Key revenue streams are further bolstered by strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance their service offerings and customer reach.
Mister Car Wash Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed narrative. While there were positive developments in UWC membership growth, marketing success, and financial resilience, these were counterbalanced by challenges in retail sales, increased operating expenses, and moderated growth in new store openings.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Comp Store Sales Growth
Delivered ninth consecutive quarter of positive comp store sales growth with total company revenue increasing 4% to $265 million.
UWC Membership Growth
UWC membership base increased approximately 5% compared to Q2 of last year, indicating strong subscription model performance.
Successful Marketing Initiatives
Regional Q2 marketing tests showed promising results, with comp store sales growth outpacing non-media test control groups.
Debt Reduction and Financial Resilience
Outstanding long-term debt decreased by $72 million year-over-year, with a net leverage ratio expected to improve to under 2.5x adjusted EBITDA by year-end.
Negative Updates
Softer Retail Sales
Retail comps decreased low double digits, attributed to unfavorable weather and a tepid consumer environment.
Increased Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses increased 200 basis points to 67.2% of revenue, primarily due to sales deleverage and higher cash rent expenses.
Moderated New Store Openings
Revised new store openings for 2025, reflecting a more disciplined approach to capital deployment and site selection.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, Mister Car Wash reported a 4% increase in total company revenue, reaching $265 million, alongside a 1.2% rise in comparable store sales. Adjusted EBITDA for the period was $87 million. Despite encountering softer top-line trends due to unfavorable weather and a tepid consumer environment, the company's Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) subscription model, which grew by approximately 5% year-over-year, remained resilient. The company also added four new greenfield locations, expanding its total unit count to 522 stores. The strategic initiatives included a focus on operational excellence, innovation, and expansion, with the UWC membership base contributing significantly to the firm's performance. The company anticipates a stronger second half of the year, supported by a base membership price increase and an encouraging response to marketing tests aimed at driving retail traffic and membership growth.Mister Car Wash Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mister Car Wash demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with healthy margins and improved leverage. However, profitability and cash flow management present areas for improvement. The company should focus on enhancing net profit margins and addressing negative free cash flow to strengthen its financial position.Income Statement
Mister Car Wash shows a solid revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.02%. The gross profit margin is strong at 66.14%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is moderate at 8.48%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 18.33% and 24.41%, respectively, reflecting good operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88, showing improved leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is moderate at 8.53%, indicating decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 34.47%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with potential for strengthening equity further.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is robust with a coverage ratio of 1.50, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow and its growth rate of -36.43% are concerning, reflecting challenges in cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting the need for improved cash flow efficiency.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.03B | 994.73M | 927.07M | 876.51M | 758.36M | 574.94M |
| Gross Profit | 679.61M | 704.02M | 563.35M | 608.04M | 493.19M | 380.97M |
| EBITDA | 250.84M | 178.93M | 248.14M | 187.72M | 42.84M | 220.75M |
| Net Income | 87.11M | 70.24M | 80.13M | 112.90M | -22.05M | 60.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.11B | 3.10B | 2.88B | 2.69B | 2.45B | 1.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.41M | 67.46M | 19.05M | 65.15M | 19.74M | 114.65M |
| Total Debt | 939.51M | 1.87B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.67B | 1.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.97B | 1.89B | 1.79B | 1.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.07B | 998.35M | 915.03M | 801.13M | 657.15M | 16.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -15.98M | -81.46M | -123.47M | 37.59M | 47.59M | 43.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.12M | 248.62M | 204.65M | 229.20M | 173.35M | 101.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -166.54M | -199.85M | -259.37M | -190.13M | -543.83M | -13.35M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -74.70M | -275.00K | 8.61M | 6.29M | 272.46M | 22.68M |
Mister Car Wash Technical Analysis
Negative
5.44
Price Trends
5.94
Negative
6.41
Negative
7.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
41.06
Neutral
19.47
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.61, below the 50-day MA of 5.94, and below the 200-day MA of 7.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MCW.
Mister Car Wash Risk Analysis
Mister Car Wash disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mister Car Wash reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mister Car Wash Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | 11.18B | 21.64 | 34.29% | 1.56% | 2.65% | 7.42% | |
75 Outperform | 4.85B | 19.80 | 101.58% | ― | 8.56% | 31.87% | |
74 Outperform | 6.21B | 36.54 | 12.64% | ― | 9.25% | 74.86% | |
67 Neutral | 6.88B | 11.69 | 681.44% | 3.06% | 4.17% | 5.56% | |
65 Neutral | 677.08M | 12.96 | 22.25% | 1.01% | 3.55% | 73.06% | |
61 Neutral | $1.78B | 20.71 | 8.62% | ― | 7.21% | 20.31% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MCW
Mister Car Wash
5.44
-1.10
-16.82%
CSV
Carriage Services
44.49
11.92
36.60%
ROL
Rollins
55.73
6.19
12.49%
SCI
Service International
80.54
2.27
2.90%
BFAM
Bright Horizons
111.06
-28.00
-20.14%
FTDR
frontdoor
67.08
18.53
38.17%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.