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Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW)
:MCW
US Market
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Mister Car Wash (MCW) AI Stock Analysis

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MCW

Mister Car Wash

(NASDAQ:MCW)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(6.19% Upside)
The stock's score is driven by strong earnings call performance and financial growth. However, technical indicators show bearish momentum, and valuation suggests moderate attractiveness without dividends.
Positive Factors
Membership Sales
The company’s membership base remained strong, as sales were up nearly 10% during the quarter.
Operational Performance
Mister Car Wash reported another strong quarter, continuing much of the momentum seen in the second half of 2024.
Strategic Positioning
Mister Car Wash is well positioned to take advantage of attractive assets coming to market due to shifting competitive dynamics.
Negative Factors
Competition and Market Expansion
MCW hasn't entered any new states since its 2021 IPO, opting to densify its existing territory, while competitors have been expanding and fortifying their networks.
Cost Pressures
Higher rent and utility/equipment/facility costs drove other store OpEx de-leverage in Q1.
Retail Sales Decline
Mister Car Wash reported softer-than-expected results as retail (nonmember) sales fell by nearly 11%.

Mister Car Wash (MCW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mister Car Wash Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMister Car Wash (MCW) is a leading national car wash company in the United States, recognized for providing high-quality car wash and detailing services. With numerous locations across the country, Mister Car Wash offers a range of services including exterior washes, interior cleaning, and express detail services. The company is dedicated to delivering convenience and exceptional customer service through its network of automated car wash facilities.
How the Company Makes MoneyMister Car Wash primarily makes money through its car wash service offerings, which include single wash purchases and subscription-based models. The subscription model, known as the Unlimited Wash Club, provides customers with unlimited car washes for a monthly fee, contributing significantly to steady recurring revenue. Additionally, the company generates income from the sale of car care products and additional detailing services at their locations. Key revenue streams are further bolstered by strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance their service offerings and customer reach.

Mister Car Wash Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -7.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights Mister Car Wash's steady revenue growth and strong performance in its subscription model, despite challenges in the retail segment and increased operating costs. The company's strategic initiatives and disciplined approach to expansion suggest a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Positive Comp Store Sales Growth
The company achieved its ninth consecutive quarter of positive comp store sales growth, with a 1.2% increase in comparable store sales.
Revenue Growth and UWC Subscription Model
Total company revenue increased by 4% to $265 million. The UWC subscription model remains strong, contributing to 75% of total sales with a 5% increase in membership compared to the previous year.
Successful Price Increase Implementation
The base membership price increase was successfully implemented, with member retention levels remaining in line with expectations.
Expansion and Innovation
Four new greenfield locations were added, expanding the total unit count to 522 stores. Additionally, the company saw a 300 basis point increase in titanium membership penetration from Q2 last year.
Strong Cash Flow and Debt Reduction
The company reduced outstanding long-term debt by $72 million year-over-year and expects its net leverage ratio to improve to under 2.5x adjusted EBITDA by the end of the year.
Negative Updates
Softer Retail Comps and Consumer Environment
Retail comps decreased by low double digits, influenced by unfavorable weather and a more tepid consumer environment.
Increased Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses increased by 200 basis points to 67.2% of revenue, driven by higher cash rent, utilities, and materials costs.
Moderated New Store Openings
The company slightly moderated new store openings for 2025, reflecting a disciplined approach to capital deployment and prioritization of high-performing markets.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Mister Car Wash demonstrated robust performance metrics, reporting a 4% increase in total company revenue, reaching $265 million, and a 1.2% growth in comparable store sales. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $87 million, despite facing challenges such as unfavorable weather and a more restrained consumer environment. The UWC membership base grew approximately 5% from the previous year, helping offset a weaker retail backdrop. The company expanded its footprint by adding four new greenfield locations, bringing the total unit count to 522 stores. Additionally, Mister Car Wash saw a 23% penetration in its Titanium membership tier, reflecting a 300 basis point increase from the same quarter last year. Looking ahead, the company remains optimistic about its strategic imperatives, including footprint expansion, innovation in products and services, and marketing efforts to drive traffic and membership growth.

Mister Car Wash Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mister Car Wash demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with some challenges in net profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet shows a balanced financial structure, though high liabilities require careful monitoring. The ability to generate operating cash flow is a strong point, but addressing negative free cash flow will be crucial for long-term sustainability.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Mister Car Wash has shown strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory from 2020 to TTM 2025. The gross profit margin is robust, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the net profit margin is modest, suggesting room for improvement in controlling costs and enhancing profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, supporting operational efficiency, although EBITDA margin has shown some volatility.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a stable equity position with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, despite a high level of total debt. Return on equity has been strong, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio suggests a balanced approach to financing with both debt and equity. However, the high level of liabilities relative to total assets poses a potential risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture, with operating cash flow consistently positive and growing, highlighting strong cash generation capability. However, free cash flow has been negative in recent years due to high capital expenditures, which may impact liquidity if not offset by revenue growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating good cash conversion from profits, but the free cash flow to net income ratio needs improvement.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.03B994.73M927.07M876.51M758.36M574.94M
Gross Profit679.61M704.02M563.35M608.04M493.19M380.97M
EBITDA250.84M178.93M248.14M187.72M42.84M220.75M
Net Income87.11M70.24M80.13M112.90M-22.05M60.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.11B3.10B2.88B2.69B2.45B1.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.41M67.46M19.05M65.15M19.74M114.65M
Total Debt939.51M1.87B1.77B1.71B1.67B1.80B
Total Liabilities2.04B2.10B1.97B1.89B1.79B1.93B
Stockholders Equity1.07B998.35M915.03M801.13M657.15M16.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.78M-81.46M-123.47M37.59M47.59M43.10M
Operating Cash Flow217.29M248.62M204.65M229.20M173.35M101.85M
Investing Cash Flow-110.17M-199.85M-259.37M-190.13M-543.83M-13.35M
Financing Cash Flow-71.58M-275.00K8.61M6.29M272.46M22.68M

Mister Car Wash Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.65
Price Trends
50DMA
6.43
Negative
100DMA
6.99
Negative
200DMA
7.27
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Positive
RSI
30.06
Neutral
STOCH
27.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.32, below the 50-day MA of 6.43, and below the 200-day MA of 7.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MCW.

Mister Car Wash Risk Analysis

Mister Car Wash disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mister Car Wash reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mister Car Wash Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$4.13B16.80109.83%5.53%36.30%
78
Outperform
$11.05B21.3034.52%1.59%2.65%7.42%
75
Outperform
$714.19M15.2222.96%0.99%5.02%45.34%
73
Outperform
$6.73B43.0912.63%9.71%94.22%
64
Neutral
$1.84B21.858.62%7.21%20.31%
61
Neutral
$16.54B10.12-9.02%3.34%1.44%-22.51%
54
Neutral
$7.32B13.38657.13%2.75%3.71%-8.07%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MCW
Mister Car Wash
5.61
-1.09
-16.27%
CSV
Carriage Services
45.51
15.84
53.39%
HRB
H&R Block
54.64
0.15
0.28%
SCI
Service International
78.77
5.50
7.51%
BFAM
Bright Horizons
117.60
-14.45
-10.94%
FTDR
frontdoor
56.16
11.45
25.61%

Mister Car Wash Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mister Car Wash Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Mister Car Wash, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where approximately 96% of outstanding shares were represented. During the meeting, three Class I directors were elected to serve until 2028, Deloitte & Touche LLP’s appointment as the independent accounting firm for 2025 was ratified, and the compensation for the company’s executive officers was approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MCW) stock is a Buy with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mister Car Wash stock, see the MCW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025