Mister Car Wash (MCW)
NASDAQ:MCW
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Mister Car Wash
(NASDAQ:MCW)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(7.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance trends but constrained by weak and volatile free cash flow and remaining leverage risk. Technicals are moderately supportive (price above key longer-term averages and positive MACD) but mixed by very weak Stoch. Valuation appears reasonable rather than clearly cheap, while the go-private deal provides a meaningful near-term value anchor contingent on completion.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue from Unlimited Wash Club
A ~2.3M Unlimited Wash Club base with 7% Q4 growth creates durable, subscription-driven revenue. Recurring memberships improve demand predictability, raise customer lifetime value, and support steady unit economics, insulating revenue from single-visit volatility over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and balance-sheet sensitivity
Although leverage has improved, absolute debt remains elevated, leaving the company sensitive to macro shocks or tighter credit. High leverage constrains flexibility for capex, acquisitions, or weathering weaker demand without refinancing or asset sales over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue from Unlimited Wash Club
A ~2.3M Unlimited Wash Club base with 7% Q4 growth creates durable, subscription-driven revenue. Recurring memberships improve demand predictability, raise customer lifetime value, and support steady unit economics, insulating revenue from single-visit volatility over months.
Read all positive factors
Mister Car Wash (MCW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.29B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)984.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth6.98%
EPS Growth22.81%
CountryUS
Employees6,640
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPersonal Products & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding328,479,060
10 Day Avg. Volume1,054,108
30 Day Avg. Volume984,454
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio59.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.06Price Target Upside1.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
Mister Car Wash Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mister Car Wash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides conveyorized car wash services in the United States. It offers express exterior and interior cleaning services. As of June 16, 2022, it operated 407 car wash locations in 21 states. T...
How the Company Makes Money
MCW primarily makes money by selling car wash services through two main channels: (1) recurring subscription memberships and (2) single-wash retail transactions. Subscription programs (often marketed as unlimited wash plans) generate monthly recur...
Mister Car Wash Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, successful strategic initiatives in M&A, and promising results from marketing efforts. However, challenges remain in the form of declining retail comps, competitive pressures, and flat sequential membership growth. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased by 6% to $263 million and adjusted EBITDA rose by 10% to $87 million, marking strong financial performance in Q3 2025.
Negative Updates
Decline in Retail Comps
Retail comps performed in line with expectations for a low double-digit decrease, indicating challenges in retail sales.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased by 6% to $263 million and adjusted EBITDA rose by 10% to $87 million, marking strong financial performance in Q3 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Mister Car Wash reported a 6% increase in revenue to $263 million and a 10% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $87 million. The company also achieved a 3.1% growth in comparable store sales, marking its tenth consecutive quarter of positive comp gains. Membership in the Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) grew by 6% year-over-year, reaching approximately 2.2 million members. The Titanium 360 tier alone accounted for 25% of the total membership base. Mister Car Wash also highlighted its plans to open about 30 new stores by the end of the year, having already opened five new greenfield locations, bringing its total store count to 527 across 21 states. Additionally, the company announced the acquisition of five stores in Lubbock, Texas, which expanded its market footprint to nine locations. Adjusted EPS increased by 38% to $0.11, and the company ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of 2.4x adjusted EBITDA. Looking forward, Mister Car Wash expects full-year revenue to be near the high end of its guidance range of $1.046 billion to $1.054 billion, with adjusted EBITDA also at the high end of the guidance of $338 million to $342 million.Mister Car Wash Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.05B | 994.73M | 927.07M | 876.51M | 758.36M |
| Gross Profit | 661.22M | 704.02M | 563.35M | 290.26M | 493.19M |
| EBITDA | 287.92M | 178.93M | 248.14M | 249.00M | 42.84M |
| Net Income | 103.08M | 70.24M | 80.13M | 112.90M | -22.05M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.17B | 3.10B | 2.88B | 2.97B | 2.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.45M | 67.46M | 19.05M | 65.22M | 19.74M |
| Total Debt | 973.22M | 1.87B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.97B | 2.16B | 1.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.13B | 998.35M | 915.03M | 801.13M | 657.15M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.30M | -81.46M | -123.47M | 37.59M | 47.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 285.70M | 248.62M | 204.65M | 229.20M | 173.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -206.85M | -199.85M | -259.37M | -190.13M | -543.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -117.96M | -275.00K | 8.61M | 6.29M | 272.46M |
Mister Car Wash Technical Analysis
Positive
6.99
Price Trends
6.74
Positive
6.15
Positive
5.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
63.44
Neutral
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.98, above the 50-day MA of 6.74, and above the 200-day MA of 5.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCW.
Mister Car Wash Risk Analysis
Mister Car Wash disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mister Car Wash reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mister Car Wash Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $26.14B | 55.17 | 36.92% | 1.12% | 11.17% | 9.81% | |
73 Outperform | $4.01B | 16.54 | 101.49% | ― | 11.88% | 18.08% | |
63 Neutral | $2.29B | 17.60 | 9.49% | ― | 6.98% | 22.81% | |
63 Neutral | $4.43B | 29.90 | 14.07% | ― | 9.38% | 74.27% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $763.71M | 13.37 | 21.53% | 1.06% | 0.99% | 37.55% | |
59 Neutral | $11.31B | 20.35 | 33.83% | 1.66% | 3.41% | 7.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MCW
Mister Car Wash
6.99
-0.26
-3.59%
CSV
Carriage Services
48.06
10.01
26.30%
ROL
Rollins
54.66
-0.37
-0.68%
SCI
Service International
82.29
4.71
6.08%
BFAM
Bright Horizons
82.85
-35.36
-29.91%
FTDR
frontdoor
58.04
17.72
43.95%
Mister Car Wash Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Mister Car Wash to Go Private in LGP Buyout
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Mister Car Wash agreed to be acquired by affiliates of Leonard Green Partners via a merger in which shareholders other than the sponsor group will receive $7.00 in cash per share, with the buyer funding the transaction in pa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.