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Mister Car Wash (MCW)
NASDAQ:MCW
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Mister Car Wash
(NASDAQ:MCW)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-7.09% Downside)
Mister Car Wash's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including revenue and EBITDA growth. However, technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics suggest moderate attractiveness. Challenges in cash flow management and competitive pressures also weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue and EBITDA growth indicate strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability.
Market Expansion
Strategic acquisitions and market expansion enhance competitive positioning and increase market share, driving future growth opportunities.
Subscription Model
Growth in subscription memberships provides a stable revenue stream and strengthens customer loyalty, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow indicates challenges in cash management, potentially limiting investment capacity and financial flexibility.
Competitive Pressure
Increased competition could pressure margins and market share, necessitating strategic responses to maintain competitive advantage.
Flat Membership Growth
Flat membership growth may signal market saturation or competitive challenges, impacting future revenue from subscription services.
Mister Car Wash (MCW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.3
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth6.98%
EPS Growth22.81%
CountryUS
Employees6,640
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryPersonal Products & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding327,568,360
10 Day Avg. Volume839,841
30 Day Avg. Volume1,059,024
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.16
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)2.35
P/FCF Ratio-28.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.80Price Target Upside14.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mister Car Wash Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMister Car Wash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides conveyorized car wash services in the United States. It offers express exterior and interior cleaning services. As of June 16, 2022, it operated 407 car wash locations in 21 states. The company was formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Mister Car Wash, Inc. in March 2021. Mister Car Wash, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Tucson, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyMister Car Wash generates revenue primarily through its car wash services and subscription model. Customers can choose from one-time washes or opt for a monthly subscription that offers unlimited washes for a fixed fee. This subscription model not only provides a steady stream of recurring revenue but also enhances customer loyalty. Additionally, MCW earns revenue from upselling related services such as detailing and interior cleaning. The company has established partnerships with various suppliers for car wash equipment and eco-friendly cleaning products, which can help optimize operational efficiency and reduce costs, further contributing to its overall profitability.
Mister Car Wash Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, successful strategic initiatives in M&A, and promising results from marketing efforts. However, challenges remain in the form of declining retail comps, competitive pressures, and flat sequential membership growth. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased by 6% to $263 million and adjusted EBITDA rose by 10% to $87 million, marking strong financial performance in Q3 2025.
Consistent Comparable Store Sales Growth
Achieved a 3.1% increase in comparable store sales, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of comp gains.
UWC Membership Expansion
Ended Q3 with approximately 2.2 million UWC members, a 6% increase year-over-year, with the Titanium 360 tier reaching 25% penetration of the total membership base.
M&A and Market Expansion
Acquired five stores in Lubbock, Texas, more than doubling the market share and expanding the footprint to 527 stores across 21 states.
Record High Q3 EBITDA Margin
Reported the highest Q3 EBITDA margin ever at 32.9%, with a 130 basis point improvement.
Positive Trends in Marketing Tests
Saw promising results from Q2 marketing tests and are expanding the program to drive future growth.
Negative Updates
Decline in Retail Comps
Retail comps performed in line with expectations for a low double-digit decrease, indicating challenges in retail sales.
Challenges with Competitive Pressure
49 sites facing competition less than a year old comped down low single digits, showing ongoing competitive challenges.
Flat Sequential Membership Growth
Sequential membership base remained relatively flat, indicating challenges in growing the member base further.
Interior Clean Locations Underperformance
63 interior clean locations comped at a negative 1.6%, serving as a headwind to the overall comp.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Mister Car Wash reported a 6% increase in revenue to $263 million and a 10% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $87 million. The company also achieved a 3.1% growth in comparable store sales, marking its tenth consecutive quarter of positive comp gains. Membership in the Unlimited Wash Club (UWC) grew by 6% year-over-year, reaching approximately 2.2 million members. The Titanium 360 tier alone accounted for 25% of the total membership base. Mister Car Wash also highlighted its plans to open about 30 new stores by the end of the year, having already opened five new greenfield locations, bringing its total store count to 527 across 21 states. Additionally, the company announced the acquisition of five stores in Lubbock, Texas, which expanded its market footprint to nine locations. Adjusted EPS increased by 38% to $0.11, and the company ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of 2.4x adjusted EBITDA. Looking forward, Mister Car Wash expects full-year revenue to be near the high end of its guidance range of $1.046 billion to $1.054 billion, with adjusted EBITDA also at the high end of the guidance of $338 million to $342 million.Mister Car Wash Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mister Car Wash demonstrates solid revenue growth and improved profitability, with a healthier balance sheet due to reduced leverage. However, declining margins and negative free cash flow growth indicate areas for improvement in cost and cash flow management.Income Statement
Mister Car Wash shows a strong revenue growth rate of 37.1% TTM, indicating robust expansion. The gross profit margin is healthy at 51.16%, although it has decreased from previous years. The net profit margin has improved to 8.85% TTM, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, suggesting potential cost management issues.Balance Sheet
The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.85 TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity is stable at 8.76% TTM, showing consistent returns to shareholders. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, past high leverage remains a concern.Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is strong, covering 95.06% of net income TTM, indicating good cash generation. However, free cash flow growth is negative, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.47%, highlighting potential cash flow management challenges.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.04B | 994.73M | 927.07M | 876.51M | 758.36M | 574.94M |
| Gross Profit | 639.69M | 704.02M | 563.35M | 290.26M | 493.19M | 380.97M |
| EBITDA | 276.20M | 178.93M | 248.14M | 249.00M | 42.84M | 186.47M |
| Net Income | 92.17M | 70.24M | 80.13M | 112.90M | -22.05M | 60.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.14B | 3.10B | 2.88B | 2.97B | 2.45B | 2.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.65M | 67.46M | 19.05M | 65.22M | 19.74M | 117.87M |
| Total Debt | 937.06M | 1.87B | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.67B | 1.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.97B | 2.16B | 1.79B | 2.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 998.35M | 915.03M | 801.13M | 657.15M | 16.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.68M | -81.46M | -123.47M | 37.59M | 47.59M | 43.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 275.51M | 248.62M | 204.65M | 229.20M | 173.35M | 101.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -148.19M | -199.85M | -259.37M | -190.13M | -543.83M | -13.35M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -108.18M | -275.00K | 8.61M | 6.29M | 272.46M | 22.68M |
Mister Car Wash Technical Analysis
Positive
5.92
Price Trends
5.41
Positive
5.38
Positive
6.10
Negative
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
66.17
Neutral
81.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.69, above the 50-day MA of 5.41, and below the 200-day MA of 6.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCW.
Mister Car Wash Risk Analysis
Mister Car Wash disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mister Car Wash reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mister Car Wash Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $29.18B | 56.99 | 36.21% | 1.12% | 11.17% | 9.81% | |
72 Outperform | $4.35B | 17.15 | 91.16% | ― | 11.88% | 18.08% | |
67 Neutral | $11.14B | 21.79 | 33.48% | 1.66% | 3.41% | 7.94% | |
67 Neutral | $5.77B | 29.37 | 14.19% | ― | 9.38% | 74.27% | |
63 Neutral | $1.94B | 21.31 | 8.84% | ― | 6.98% | 22.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $677.67M | 14.22 | 21.96% | 1.06% | 0.99% | 37.55% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MCW
Mister Car Wash
5.92
-1.18
-16.62%
CSV
Carriage Services
43.04
4.27
11.01%
ROL
Rollins
60.21
14.29
31.12%
SCI
Service International
79.50
3.54
4.66%
BFAM
Bright Horizons
101.99
-12.20
-10.68%
FTDR
frontdoor
60.28
4.60
8.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.