Matson (MATX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.56B
• Dividend Yield: 1.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 291.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 1.88%
• EPS Growth: 9.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,356
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Marine Shipping
• EPS (TTM): 4.60
• Shares Outstanding: 30,439,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 349,615
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 291,273
• PEG Ratio: -12.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.35
• 1Y Price Target: $190.00
• Price Target Upside: 19.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.43B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $169.00 ▲(6.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial footing (low leverage, solid equity base) and robust cash generation, complemented by favorable technical momentum. Valuation is supportive at a mid-teens P/E, while the earnings outlook is steady but tempered by near-term weakness signals, China volume softness, and some one-time benefit in Q4 results.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet / low leverage

Sharp deleveraging and steady equity growth materially improve resilience to shipping cycle shocks, lowering refinancing risk and enabling strategic choices (vessel builds, maintenance, buybacks). Attractive ROE (~16% in 2025) shows capital remains productive despite normalization.

Robust cash generation and free cash flow

High cash conversion provides durable funding for capex, dividends and buybacks without heavy reliance on new debt. Sustained FCF supports strategic vessel investment and equipment purchases while preserving liquidity through cyclical revenue swings.

Network diversification into Southeast Asia

Expanding feeder services into Vietnam and Thailand reduces concentration risk on China, broadens sourcing lanes, and builds long-term commercial optionality. Diversified trade lanes can stabilize volumes and support pricing power as global supply chains reconfigure regionally.

Negative Factors

China volume weakness

Sustained declines in China volumes materially depress Ocean Transportation revenue and utilization, eroding operating income. Given Matson's transpacific exposure, prolonged softness in China trade can compress yields and force underutilized sailings, weakening multi-quarter earnings.

Logistics segment softness

Weakness across freight forwarding, brokerage and SCM suggests margin pressure and competitive dynamics in logistics. A soft logistics business limits Matson's diversification and reduces ability to offset ocean volatility, making consolidated earnings more dependent on shipping cycles.

Large near-term capital commitments

Heavy planned vessel builds and elevated maintenance capex increase capital intensity and near-term cash needs. If revenue or rates remain depressed, large fixed investments and amortizing dry-dock costs could pressure margins and free cash flow in the medium term.

Matson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean Transportation segment offers ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, as well as to other island economies in Micronesia. It primarily transports dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, packaged foods and beverages, building materials, automobiles, and household goods; livestock; seafood; general sustenance cargo; and garments, footwear, e-commerce, and other retail merchandise. This segment also operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, and various islands in the South Pacific, as well as Okinawa, Japan; and provides container stevedoring, refrigerated cargo services, inland transportation, container equipment maintenance, and other terminal services to ocean carriers on the Hawaiian islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai, as well as in the Alaska locations of Anchorage, Kodiak, and Dutch Harbor. In addition, the company offers vessel management and container transshipment services. Its Logistics segment provides multimodal transportation brokerage services, including domestic and international rail intermodal, long-haul and regional highway trucking, specialized hauling, flat-bed and project, less-than-truckload, and expedited freight services; less-than-container load consolidation and freight forwarding services; warehousing and distribution services; supply chain management services, and non-vessel operating common carrier freight forwarding services. The company serves the U.S. military, freight forwarders, retailers, consumer goods, automobile manufacturers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Alexander & Baldwin Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Matson, Inc. in June 2012. Matson, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.

How the Company Makes Money

Matson generates revenue primarily from two reportable segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. (1) Ocean Transportation: The company earns freight revenue by transporting containerized and roll-on/roll-off cargo (and, in certain markets, vehicles and other specialized freight) on its owned and chartered vessels. Pricing and volume are driven by contracted business (longer-term customer contracts and service agreements) and a portion of cargo that moves at market (spot) rates where applicable. Revenue is also influenced by fuel-related charges (e.g., bunker or fuel surcharges where used), vessel utilization, sailing frequency, and network coverage in its core domestic ocean trades (notably Hawaii) and Pacific/Transpacific services. (2) Logistics: The company earns service revenue by arranging and managing transportation and supply chain services for customers, including freight forwarding (air and ocean), intermodal/ground transportation brokerage, warehousing, distribution, and other supply-chain solutions. This segment typically monetizes via service fees and margins between bought transportation capacity/third-party services and customer billings. Key factors that contribute to earnings across both segments include freight demand in its served markets, shipping rates, operating costs (especially fuel and labor), vessel and terminal operations, and the efficiency of its integrated network and logistics offerings.

Matson Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financially sound: a much stronger balance sheet with sharply lower leverage and steady equity growth, plus robust operating and free cash flow with strong cash conversion. Offsetting factors include post-2022 profitability normalization, volatile revenue, and an atypical 2025 negative gross profit figure that suggests potential cost/one-time item pressure to monitor.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid with net margins generally healthy (about 13% in 2025 vs. ~14% in 2024), but results are notably less favorable than the 2021–2022 peak years when margins were materially higher. Revenue has been volatile (sharp decline in 2023, modest rebound in 2024, then slight decline in 2025), and 2025 shows an unusual negative gross profit, which raises questions about cost pressure or one-time items despite strong net income.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully over time, with debt-to-equity declining from ~1.04 (2020) to ~0.13 (2025), indicating a much stronger and more conservative capital structure. Equity has grown steadily, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity are still attractive (~16% in 2025), though down from the exceptionally strong 2021–2022 period, consistent with normalization in the business cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong: 2025 operating cash flow was ~$547M and free cash flow also ~$547M, with free cash flow running at roughly 100% of net income, signaling high earnings cash conversion. Cash flow coverage of net income is solid (just over 1.0x in 2025), although it has been uneven historically (below 1.0x in 2020 and 2023). Free cash flow growth is very strong in 2025 versus 2024, but the multi-year trajectory has been cyclical.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.34B	3.42B	3.09B	4.34B	3.93B
Gross Profit	761.40M	855.90M	623.90M	1.53B	1.37B
EBITDA	879.70M	916.00M	690.50M	1.68B	1.45B
Net Income	444.80M	476.40M	297.10M	1.06B	927.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.76B	4.60B	4.29B	4.33B	3.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	141.90M	266.80M	134.00M	249.80M	282.40M
Total Debt	727.10M	749.00M	725.00M	910.70M	1.06B
Total Liabilities	2.00B	1.94B	1.89B	2.03B	2.03B
Stockholders Equity	2.76B	2.65B	2.40B	2.30B	1.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	153.70M	457.70M	262.10M	1.06B	658.80M
Operating Cash Flow	547.10M	767.80M	510.50M	1.27B	984.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-265.60M	-336.10M	-338.20M	-729.30M	-323.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-404.30M	-301.20M	-289.70M	-576.60M	-392.70M

Matson Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 158.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MATX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 158.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.26, above the 50-day MA of 153.97, and above the 200-day MA of 118.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MATX.

Matson Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAC	81 Outperform	$1.95B	3.51	13.56%	3.64%	3.82%	-13.73%
KEX	79 Outperform	$6.70B	17.31	10.54%	―	1.59%	3.35%
MATX	76 Outperform	$4.56B	8.56	16.63%	1.13%	1.88%	9.30%
CMRE	72 Outperform	$1.93B	5.21	16.86%	2.94%	-29.82%	-16.77%
ZIM	69 Neutral	$3.25B	5.34	12.06%	20.35%	1.63%	-30.30%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SBLK	62 Neutral	$2.49B	26.26	3.46%	1.59%	-13.87%	-82.48%

Matson Corporate Events

Matson Announces Upcoming Retirement of Chief Commercial Officer

Matson, Inc., a U.S. shipping and logistics company, operates in ocean transportation and related services, with a focus on commercial cargo operations across key Pacific and domestic trade lanes.

On March 9, 2026, Matson announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer John P. Lauer plans to retire from the company effective July 1, 2026, marking an impending leadership change in its commercial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MATX) stock is a Buy with a $176.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matson stock, see the MATX Stock Forecast page.