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Matson Inc (MATX)
NYSE:MATX
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Matson
(NYSE:MATX)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$189.00
▲(73.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial footing (low leverage, solid equity base) and robust cash generation, complemented by favorable technical momentum. Valuation is supportive at a mid-teens P/E, while the earnings outlook is steady but tempered by near-term weakness signals, China volume softness, and some one-time benefit in Q4 results.
Positive Factors
Improved balance sheet
Material deleveraging and steady equity growth create durable financial flexibility. Lower debt reduces interest burden and refinancing risk, supporting sustained capital investments, shareholder returns, and resilience through shipping cycles over the next several quarters.
Strong cash generation
High cash conversion and robust operating cash flow underpin the company's ability to fund vessel builds, maintenance, dividends and buybacks without meaningful reliance on external financing, supporting durable capital allocation and resilience amid cyclical revenue swings.
Planned vessel investment
Significant, well-communicated fleet investment modernizes capacity and supports long-term service reliability. Investing at favorable pricing and funding with cash/CCF preserves network capability and competitiveness across Pacific routes over the medium term.
Negative Factors
China volume weakness
Prolonged Transpacific softness reduces core Ocean Transportation volumes and yields, pressuring sustainable revenue and operating income. Given Matson's exposure to China trade, weaker volumes can persistently compress utilization and pricing over multiple quarters.
Unusual 2025 gross profit anomaly
A negative gross profit line suggests one-time costs or margin pressure that could mask operating fundamentals. Combined with volatile revenue, this raises structural concerns about cost control and margin sustainability until clarified and normalized.
Logistics softness and seasonality risk
Weaker logistics results and clear seasonality concentrate short-term earnings risk in lower-demand quarters. Structural softness in freight forwarding and SCM reduces diversification benefits and makes near-term consolidated profitability more cyclically sensitive.
Matson (MATX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.21B
Dividend Yield1.13%
Average Volume (3M)280.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth1.88%
EPS Growth9.30%
CountryUS
Employees4,356
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryMarine Shipping
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.60
Shares Outstanding31,180,035
10 Day Avg. Volume211,596
30 Day Avg. Volume280,811
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.14
P/FCF Ratio6.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-11.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$190.00Price Target Upside74.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.43B
Matson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMatson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean Transportation segment offers ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, as well as to other island economies in Micronesia. It primarily transports dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, packaged foods and beverages, building materials, automobiles, and household goods; livestock; seafood; general sustenance cargo; and garments, footwear, e-commerce, and other retail merchandise. This segment also operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, and various islands in the South Pacific, as well as Okinawa, Japan; and provides container stevedoring, refrigerated cargo services, inland transportation, container equipment maintenance, and other terminal services to ocean carriers on the Hawaiian islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai, as well as in the Alaska locations of Anchorage, Kodiak, and Dutch Harbor. In addition, the company offers vessel management and container transshipment services. Its Logistics segment provides multimodal transportation brokerage services, including domestic and international rail intermodal, long-haul and regional highway trucking, specialized hauling, flat-bed and project, less-than-truckload, and expedited freight services; less-than-container load consolidation and freight forwarding services; warehousing and distribution services; supply chain management services, and non-vessel operating common carrier freight forwarding services. The company serves the U.S. military, freight forwarders, retailers, consumer goods, automobile manufacturers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Alexander & Baldwin Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Matson, Inc. in June 2012. Matson, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
How the Company Makes MoneyMatson generates revenue primarily through its ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's key revenue streams include freight transportation for containerized cargo, which accounts for a significant portion of its earnings, particularly in the Hawaii and Alaska markets. Additionally, Matson earns income through logistics services that encompass inland transportation, warehousing, and distribution. The company has established strategic partnerships with various stakeholders, including shipping agents and logistics providers, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach. Seasonal demand fluctuations, especially for goods transported to Hawaii, and contracts with government and commercial customers also play a crucial role in its revenue generation.
Matson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Measures profit contribution from each segment, indicating where Matson earns the most margin, where costs or inefficiencies are a concern, and which parts of the business support cash flow for reinvestment, dividends, or debt repayment.
Measures profit contribution from each segment, indicating where Matson earns the most margin, where costs or inefficiencies are a concern, and which parts of the business support cash flow for reinvestment, dividends, or debt repayment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMatson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of near-term challenges (notably full-year 2025 operating income decline, China volume weakness, and softness in Logistics) alongside several meaningful positives: a stronger-than-expected Q4 driven by higher China freight rates and volumes, a material SSAT JV turnaround (benefiting from a prior-year impairment), robust cash flow generation ($547.1M TTM), substantial shareholder returns (>$300M share repurchases in 2025 and continued buyback commitment), declining net debt, and a clear plan to invest in vessels and equipment while maintaining a solid funding position (CCF ~92% of milestones). Management provided a constructive 2026 outlook to approach 2025 operating income and signaled confidence in a more stable Transpacific environment and normalized seasonality, although Q1 2026 is expected to be weaker. Overall, the positives (strong cash generation, capital returns, liquidity and a path to stable 2026 results) modestly outweigh the negatives tied to 2025 volume and operating income pressures.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Q4 Consolidated Results Exceeded Expectations
Consolidated fourth-quarter operating income was $143.7 million, exceeding company expectations; Q4 net income was $143.1 million and diluted EPS was $4.60, supported by a one-time tax adjustment.
China Service Q4 Strength — Higher Rates and Volumes
China service delivered higher-than-expected freight rates and volume in Q4 driven by strong e-commerce and e-goods demand, contributing to Ocean Transportation operating income that approached prior-year levels despite full-year headwinds.
SSAT Joint Venture Turnaround
SSAT contributed $9.3 million in Q4, a year-over-year increase of $18.8 million (driven by a prior-year $18.4 million impairment charge), and $32.5 million for full-year 2025 compared to a $1.0 million loss in the prior year.
Strong Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Trailing 12-month cash flow from operations was $547.1 million; the company returned $348.2 million to shareholders in 2025 (dividends + buybacks) and repurchased ~2.7 million shares for $307.4 million in 2025.
Debt Reduction and Solid Liquidity Position
Total debt was reduced by $39.7 million for the year to $361.2 million at year-end; cash and cash equivalents were ~$142 million and Capital Construction Fund balance was ~$533 million, covering ~92% of remaining milestone payments.
Strategic Network Expansion in Southeast Asia
Expanded network with a second weekly feeder from Vietnam and launched a weekly feeder from Thailand in December; Thailand service currently ~50 loads per sailing with expected gradual growth to diversify sourcing outside China.
2016 (2026) Outlook: Expectation to Approach Prior-Year Operating Income
Company expects consolidated operating income for full-year 2026 to approach 2025’s level ($499.8 million) and expects Ocean Transportation operating income for 2026 to approach $455.6 million, with a return to more-normal seasonality (Q2 and Q3 strongest).
Planned Investment at Favorable Pricing
2026 capital plan includes $425 million in new vessel construction expenditures and $150–170 million in maintenance and other CapEx; management is accelerating equipment purchases (containers/chassis) while pricing is favorable (new dry container pricing at an 8-year low).
Negative Updates
Full-Year Operating Income Decline
Consolidated operating income for full-year 2025 decreased $51.5 million year-over-year to $499.8 million, primarily driven by lower Ocean Transportation contributions (China) and a $6.2 million decline in Logistics operating income.
China Volume Weakness for Full Year
China container volume fell 9.5% year-over-year for full-year 2025 and was down 7.2% in Q4 2025 versus prior-year period, reflecting a difficult Transpacific trading environment through most of 2025.
Logistics Segment Softness
Logistics operating income decreased to $7.7 million in Q4 (a $2.4 million decline year-over-year) and $44.2 million for full-year 2025 (down $6.2 million), driven by lower contributions from supply chain management, freight forwarding and transportation brokerage.
Q1 2026 Guidance Indicates Near-Term Weakness
For Q1 2026 the company expects consolidated operating income to be lower than the prior year, with Ocean Transportation operating income expected at approximately $50 million primarily due to lower China volume.
Reliance on One-Time Tax Benefit in Q4 EPS
Q4 effective tax rate was 5.2% versus 19.1% year-ago and included a one-time tax adjustment of $18.5 million that favorably impacted diluted EPS by approximately $0.59, indicating some of the EPS strength is non-recurring.
Increased Near-Term Maintenance CapEx
Maintenance and other CapEx in 2025 was $149.1 million, approximately $20 million higher than previously communicated; management expects 2026 maintenance/other CapEx of $150–170 million (partly due to $20 million of lease buyouts).
Regional Volume Pressures — Guam and Alaska
Full-year Guam container volume decreased 4.3% year-over-year (although Q4 was +4.4%); Alaska Q4 volume decreased 3.3% year-over-year (full-year Alaska volume modestly increased 1.7% but was affected by one fewer northbound sailing).
Company Guidance
Matson guided that full-year 2026 consolidated operating income is expected to approach the $499.8 million achieved in 2025, with Ocean Transportation operating income to approach $455.6 million and Logistics to approach $44.2 million; for Q1 2026 they expect Ocean Transportation operating income of about $50 million and Logistics modestly below the prior-year Q1 level of $8.5 million, so consolidated Q1 will be lower year-over-year. Additional 2026 assumptions include depreciation & amortization of ~ $210 million (including ~ $35 million dry-dock amortization), interest income of ~ $15 million, interest expense of ~ $6 million, other income of ~ $7 million, an effective tax rate of ~ 21%, and dry-docking payments of ~ $45 million. Capital spending guidance is $425 million of new vessel construction expenditures (including capitalized interest/owners’ items), $150–$170 million of maintenance & other CapEx (with 2027–28 expected to revert to $100–$120 million), plus roughly $30 million more-than-normal for containers and chassis; SSAT contribution is expected to be comparable to $32.5 million. On the balance sheet and cash flow, Matson ended the year with ~ $142 million of cash, ~$533 million in the Capital Construction Fund (covering ~92% of remaining milestone payments), total debt of $361.2 million, trailing-12‑month cash flow from operations of $547.1 million, and noted that CFO exceeded maintenance CapEx ($149.1 million), dividends and repurchases ($348.2 million) by ~$49.8 million; they reiterated a return-to-normal seasonality (Q2/Q3 strongest), modestly higher China volume for the full year (Q1 volume down for Lunar New Year), a yield-focused pricing approach (not filling all ships), and continued capital returns (Q4 repurchases ~0.7M shares for $78.1M; 2025 repurchases ~2.7M shares for $307.4M; 13.9M shares repurchased since 2021 for ~$1.3B).Matson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall financially sound: a much stronger balance sheet with sharply lower leverage and steady equity growth, plus robust operating and free cash flow with strong cash conversion. Offsetting factors include post-2022 profitability normalization, volatile revenue, and an atypical 2025 negative gross profit figure that suggests potential cost/one-time item pressure to monitor.Income Statement
Profitability remains solid with net margins generally healthy (about 13% in 2025 vs. ~14% in 2024), but results are notably less favorable than the 2021–2022 peak years when margins were materially higher. Revenue has been volatile (sharp decline in 2023, modest rebound in 2024, then slight decline in 2025), and 2025 shows an unusual negative gross profit, which raises questions about cost pressure or one-time items despite strong net income.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved meaningfully over time, with debt-to-equity declining from ~1.04 (2020) to ~0.13 (2025), indicating a much stronger and more conservative capital structure. Equity has grown steadily, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity are still attractive (~16% in 2025), though down from the exceptionally strong 2021–2022 period, consistent with normalization in the business cycle.84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong: 2025 operating cash flow was ~$547M and free cash flow also ~$547M, with free cash flow running at roughly 100% of net income, signaling high earnings cash conversion. Cash flow coverage of net income is solid (just over 1.0x in 2025), although it has been uneven historically (below 1.0x in 2020 and 2023). Free cash flow growth is very strong in 2025 versus 2024, but the multi-year trajectory has been cyclical.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.34B | 3.42B | 3.09B | 4.34B | 3.93B |
| Gross Profit | -481.90M | 855.90M | 623.90M | 1.53B | 1.37B |
| EBITDA | 850.80M | 916.00M | 690.50M | 1.68B | 1.45B |
| Net Income | 444.80M | 476.40M | 297.10M | 1.06B | 927.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.16B | 4.60B | 4.29B | 4.33B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 141.90M | 266.80M | 134.00M | 249.80M | 282.40M |
| Total Debt | 351.80M | 749.00M | 725.00M | 910.70M | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.40B | 1.94B | 1.89B | 2.03B | 2.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.76B | 2.65B | 2.40B | 2.30B | 1.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 547.10M | 457.70M | 262.10M | 1.06B | 658.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 547.10M | 767.80M | 510.50M | 1.27B | 984.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -265.60M | -336.10M | -338.20M | -729.30M | -323.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -406.40M | -301.20M | -289.70M | -576.60M | -392.70M |
Matson Technical Analysis
Positive
109.14
Price Trends
144.36
Positive
123.40
Positive
115.63
Positive
Market Momentum
6.05
Positive
64.27
Neutral
82.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MATX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 109.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.78, below the 50-day MA of 144.36, and below the 200-day MA of 115.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MATX.
Matson Risk Analysis
Matson disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Matson reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Matson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.04B | 4.06 | 13.70% | 3.64% | 3.82% | -13.73% | |
79 Outperform | $6.99B | 20.58 | 10.53% | ― | 1.59% | 3.35% | |
76 Outperform | $5.21B | 12.52 | 16.38% | 1.13% | 1.88% | 9.30% | |
76 Outperform | $2.02B | 5.87 | 16.57% | 2.94% | -29.82% | -16.77% | |
67 Neutral | $2.88B | 48.07 | 2.50% | 1.59% | -13.87% | -82.48% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $3.50B | 3.44 | 25.25% | 20.35% | 1.63% | -30.30% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MATX
Matson
166.99
24.98
17.59%
CMRE
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16.79
9.47
129.31%
DAC
Danaos
111.57
32.75
41.56%
KEX
Kirby
130.30
28.19
27.61%
SBLK
Star Bulk Carriers
25.28
9.79
63.20%
ZIM
ZIM
29.08
12.25
72.83%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.