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Matson
(NYSE:MATX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$225.00
▲(27.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by resilient financial strength (low leverage, solid profitability/cash generation) despite clear near-term cyclical weakness (TTM revenue decline and margin compression). Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, while valuation is only moderately attractive given a ~22 P/E and low dividend yield. Management’s raised 2026 outlook and ongoing buybacks help offset Q1 earnings pressure and fuel-related timing headwinds.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (debt-to-equity mid-0.2x) and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, lets management fund newbuild milestones, maintain dividends and buybacks, and absorb cyclical revenue swings without forcing distress sales.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and margin compression
Revenue momentum has moved from growth to a sharp TTM contraction and margins have compressed from 2021–2022 peaks. This normalization implies weaker pricing and volumes, pressuring sustainable profitability and free cash flow generation over the coming quarters absent demand recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (debt-to-equity mid-0.2x) and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, lets management fund newbuild milestones, maintain dividends and buybacks, and absorb cyclical revenue swings without forcing distress sales.
Read all positive factors
Matson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Measures profit contribution from each segment, indicating where Matson earns the most margin, where costs or inefficiencies are a concern, and which parts of the business support cash flow for reinvestment, dividends, or debt repayment.
Measures profit contribution from each segment, indicating where Matson earns the most margin, where costs or inefficiencies are a concern, and which parts of the business support cash flow for reinvestment, dividends, or debt repayment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMatson (MATX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.16B
Dividend Yield1.13%
Average Volume (3M)242.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.9
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth-4.64%
EPS Growth-10.76%
CountryUS
Employees4,356
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryMarine Shipping
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.70
Shares Outstanding30,263,280
10 Day Avg. Volume297,467
30 Day Avg. Volume242,081
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.14
P/FCF Ratio24.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$230.00Price Target Upside30.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)13.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.43B
Matson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Matson, Inc. specializes in providing integrated ocean transportation and logistics solutions. Its Ocean Transportation segment offers crucial ocean freight services connecting the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, alo...
How the Company Makes Money
Matson makes money primarily through two segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. In Ocean Transportation, it earns revenue by transporting containerized freight (and other cargo where applicable) on scheduled ocean services, charging custome...
Matson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced notable near‑term headwinds with encouraging operational and financial strengths. Q1 results showed a material YoY decline in consolidated operating income and weakness in China and some domestic lanes, and Logistics and SSAT contributions were down. Offsetting these challenges, management raised the full‑year operating income outlook, pointed to a stronger post‑Lunar New Year recovery in China and Southeast Asia (e‑commerce and e‑goods demand), healthy cash generation, continued share repurchases, and a well‑funded newbuild program. The company expects a Q2 fuel‑related timing headwind but anticipates full recovery of fuel costs by year‑end and a return to more normal seasonality with stronger Q2/Q3 performance.Positive Updates
Raised Full-Year Outlook for Consolidated Operating Income
Company raised its full-year outlook and now expects consolidated operating income to modestly exceed the level achieved in 2025, driven primarily by strengthening freight demand in the China service post-Lunar New Year and expected continuation through peak season.
Negative Updates
Material YoY Decline in Q1 Consolidated Operating Income
Consolidated operating income decreased $20.7 million year‑over‑year to $61.4 million in Q1 (approximately a 25% decline versus prior year quarter), driven mainly by lower contribution from the China service in Ocean Transportation and weaker Logistics contribution.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised Full-Year Outlook for Consolidated Operating Income
Company raised its full-year outlook and now expects consolidated operating income to modestly exceed the level achieved in 2025, driven primarily by strengthening freight demand in the China service post-Lunar New Year and expected continuation through peak season.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Matson updated 2026 guidance calling for consolidated operating income to modestly exceed 2025 (Q1 consolidated was $61.4M, down $20.7M YoY) with Ocean Transportation expected to be roughly $20M higher than the $98.6M achieved in 2025 and Logistics to “approach” the $14.4M level from 2025; they expect Q2 consolidated operating income to be about $20M above last year despite a near-term negative lag from fuel surcharge timing, with full recovery of fuel costs by year-end (most recovery in Q3). Key financial assumptions include depreciation & amortization of about $210M (including ~$35M of drydocking amortization), interest income ≈ $16M, interest expense ≈ $6M, other income ≈ $7M, an effective tax rate ≈ 21%, and drydocking payments ≈ $45M. CapEx guidance is maintenance/other $150–170M and new-vessel milestone payments and related costs ≈ $400M (Q1 CCF payment ≈ $16M; expected milestone payments ≈ $213M in Q2, ~$34M in Q3 and ~$110M in Q4); cash & cash equivalents ≈ $100M and a capital construction fund ≈ $522M (covering ~93% of remaining milestones). Operational and volume notes driving the outlook: Q1 container volumes—China -9.5% YoY, Hawaii -5.6%, Alaska -2%, Guam flat—expect China volumes to be moderately higher for the full year and Q2 container volumes to be higher YoY; other metrics disclosed include TTM cash flow from operations $552.1M, capital returned $333.8M, maintenance CapEx $150.9M, share repurchases in Q1 ~400k shares for $54.4M (total ~14.2M shares repurchased since 2021 for ~$1.3B; 3M shares added to authorization on 04/23/2026), and total debt of $351.1M (down $10.1M from year-end).Matson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.32B | 3.34B | 3.42B | 3.09B | 4.34B | 3.93B |
| Gross Profit | 744.40M | 761.40M | 855.90M | 623.90M | 1.53B | 1.37B |
| EBITDA | 782.80M | 879.70M | 916.00M | 690.50M | 1.68B | 1.45B |
| Net Income | 429.10M | 444.80M | 476.40M | 297.10M | 1.06B | 927.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.58B | 4.76B | 4.60B | 4.29B | 4.33B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 100.10M | 141.90M | 266.80M | 134.00M | 253.70M | 287.70M |
| Total Debt | 697.20M | 727.10M | 749.00M | 725.00M | 910.70M | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.85B | 2.00B | 1.94B | 1.89B | 2.03B | 2.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.73B | 2.76B | 2.65B | 2.40B | 2.30B | 1.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 418.40M | 153.70M | 457.70M | 262.10M | 1.06B | 658.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 550.00M | 547.10M | 767.80M | 510.50M | 1.27B | 984.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -173.00M | -265.60M | -336.10M | -338.20M | -729.30M | -323.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -398.90M | -404.30M | -301.20M | -289.70M | -576.60M | -392.70M |
Matson Technical Analysis
Positive
176.55
Price Trends
186.13
Positive
174.80
Positive
145.65
Positive
Market Momentum
3.85
Negative
64.78
Neutral
61.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MATX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 176.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 195.23, below the 50-day MA of 186.13, and above the 200-day MA of 145.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MATX.
Matson Risk Analysis
Matson disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Matson reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Matson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.23B | 4.30 | 13.85% | 3.64% | 2.95% | 15.92% | |
72 Outperform | $2.86B | 19.96 | 5.87% | 1.59% | -11.62% | -37.75% | |
71 Outperform | $6.16B | 14.86 | 15.90% | 1.13% | -4.64% | -10.76% | |
69 Neutral | $6.95B | 19.85 | 10.63% | ― | 5.52% | 28.97% | |
65 Neutral | $1.72B | 5.32 | 16.80% | 2.94% | -59.07% | 10.43% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $3.08B | 31.18 | 2.48% | 20.35% | -29.06% | -95.84% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MATX
Matson
203.53
91.58
81.80%
CMRE
Costamare
14.26
5.30
59.17%
DAC
Danaos
122.32
36.85
43.12%
KEX
Kirby
129.84
12.94
11.07%
SBLK
Star Bulk Carriers
25.15
7.86
45.45%
ZIM
ZIM
25.57
10.62
71.07%
Matson Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Matson Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
At Matson’s 2026 Annual Meeting, shareholders elected seven directors to the board and held advisory and ratification votes on key governance items. The meeting, held in 2026 with voting results disclosed thereafter, confirmed significant sh...
Stock BuybackDividends
Matson Expands Share Repurchase Program, Declares Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Matson, Inc., a leading U.S. Pacific carrier, announced that its board approved the addition of three million shares to the company’s existing share repurchase program and extended the program through December 31, 2029. As...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.