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Matson (MATX)
NYSE:MATX
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Matson (MATX) AI Stock Analysis

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MATX

Matson

(NYSE:MATX)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$121.00
▲(10.59%Upside)
Matson's overall score reflects strong financial management and profitability, tempered by bearish technical indicators and a cautious earnings outlook. The stock appears undervalued, but global trade uncertainties pose significant risks.
Positive Factors
Capital Management
Matson's balance sheet transformed since 2020, boosting capital rewards, with a net cash position of $519 million and reduced share count by 25%.
Financial Performance
Matson's 2Q results are likely to be higher than initially expected.
Strategic Growth
Matson is expected to outperform industry trends due to its growing Vietnam activities.
Negative Factors
Demand Uncertainty
Uncertainty on demand especially given a weak peak season thus far.
Market Conditions
Freight rates and volumes have softened further.

Matson (MATX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Matson Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMatson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean Transportation segment offers ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, as well as to other island economies in Micronesia. It primarily transports dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, packaged foods and beverages, building materials, automobiles, and household goods; livestock; seafood; general sustenance cargo; and garments, footwear, e-commerce, and other retail merchandise. This segment also operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, and various islands in the South Pacific, as well as Okinawa, Japan; and provides container stevedoring, refrigerated cargo services, inland transportation, container equipment maintenance, and other terminal services to ocean carriers on the Hawaiian islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai, as well as in the Alaska locations of Anchorage, Kodiak, and Dutch Harbor. In addition, the company offers vessel management and container transshipment services. Its Logistics segment provides multimodal transportation brokerage services, including domestic and international rail intermodal, long-haul and regional highway trucking, specialized hauling, flat-bed and project, less-than-truckload, and expedited freight services; less-than-container load consolidation and freight forwarding services; warehousing and distribution services; supply chain management services, and non-vessel operating common carrier freight forwarding services. The company serves the U.S. military, freight forwarders, retailers, consumer goods, automobile manufacturers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Alexander & Baldwin Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Matson, Inc. in June 2012. Matson, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
How the Company Makes MoneyMatson makes money primarily through its ocean transportation and logistics services. Its revenue model is centered around the fees it charges for shipping freight across its established routes in the Pacific. The company operates a fleet of container ships and provides related logistics services, such as warehousing, distribution, and supply chain management, which generate additional income streams. Key revenue streams include shipping contracts with large retailers and government entities, as well as spot market shipping. Matson's strategic partnerships and investments in port facilities and technology also enhance its operational efficiency, contributing to its earnings by reducing costs and improving service quality.

Matson Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -0.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant achievements in operating income and new service expansions offset by substantial challenges in China, logistics, and Guam. The company's outlook for 2025 is cautious due to ongoing global trade uncertainties.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Consolidated Operating Income
Consolidated operating income increased by $45.2 million year-over-year to $82.1 million, driven by significantly higher freight rates in China and a higher contribution from SSAT.
Hawaii and Alaska Volume Growth
Hawaii container volume increased by 3.2% year-over-year due to the dry docking of a competitor's vessel. Alaska's container volume increased by 4.8% year-over-year due to higher northbound volume.
New Direct Service in Vietnam
Matson announced a new direct service connecting Ho Chi Minh to their CLX and Mac Shanghai departures, highlighting their brand recognition in Asia.
Net Income and Earnings Per Share Increase
Net income increased by 100.3% year-over-year to $72.3 million, with diluted earnings per share increasing by 109.6% year-over-year to $2.18 per share.
Negative Updates
Decline in China Container Volume
Container volume in China declined approximately 30% year-over-year due to tariffs and global trade uncertainty.
Lower Logistics Operating Income
Logistics operating income decreased by $800,000 year-over-year, primarily due to a lower contribution from freight forwarding and transportation brokerage.
Guam Volume Decrease
Matson's container volume in Guam decreased 14.3% year-over-year, primarily due to lower demand from retail and food and beverage segments.
Lower 2025 Outlook
Matson lowered its 2025 outlook due to significant uncertainty regarding tariffs, global trade, and geopolitical factors.
Company Guidance
During Matson's First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call on May 5, 2025, key metrics and guidance were discussed. The first quarter saw a significant year-over-year increase in consolidated operating income, driven by higher freight rates in China and increased volumes in Hawaii and Alaska, partially offset by a decrease in Guam. However, logistics operating income was lower due to challenges in freight forwarding and transportation brokerage, despite a higher contribution from supply chain management. Looking ahead, Matson is lowering its 2025 outlook due to uncertainties related to tariffs, global trade, and geopolitical factors. Specifically, the company expects container volume and freight rates to be lower year-over-year in the second quarter and full year. In China, first-quarter freight rates were significantly higher, although container volume was 1.4% lower year-over-year. Notably, since new tariffs were implemented in April, Matson's container volume has decreased by approximately 30% year-over-year. In Hawaii, container volume increased by 3.2% due to a competitor's vessel dry docking, while Alaska saw a 4.8% increase. Conversely, Guam experienced a 14.3% decrease. The SSAT joint venture contributed $6.6 million in the first quarter, down by $6.2 million year-over-year. For 2025, Matson expects lower operating income in Ocean Transportation and Logistics compared to 2024, alongside expectations of $200 million in depreciation and amortization and $305 million in new vessel construction payments.

Matson Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Matson exhibits strong financial performance with robust profitability and cash generation, supported by a solid balance sheet and improving leverage metrics. However, challenges in revenue growth persist.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Matson's revenue shows a downward trend from 2022 to 2024, with a slight recovery in TTM. Despite this, gross and net profit margins remain robust, reflecting efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, though there's a notable decline in revenue growth rate from previous high levels.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company's balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity ratio that has improved over time, indicating reduced leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) remains solid, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder's equity. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Operating cash flow is consistently positive, providing a solid cash base. Free cash flow growth fluctuates but remains positive overall, indicating the company's capability to generate excess cash after capital expenditures. The ratios of operating cash flow and free cash flow to net income are favorable, highlighting efficient cash conversion.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.42B3.09B4.34B3.93B2.38B
Gross Profit855.90M623.90M1.53B1.37B479.00M
EBITDA916.00M690.50M1.68B1.45B494.30M
Net Income476.40M297.10M1.06B927.40M193.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.73B4.29B4.33B3.69B2.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments266.80M134.00M249.80M282.40M14.40M
Total Debt749.00M725.00M910.70M1.06B1.00B
Total Liabilities1.94B1.89B2.03B2.03B1.94B
Stockholders Equity2.65B2.40B2.30B1.67B961.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow457.70M262.10M1.06B658.80M237.50M
Operating Cash Flow767.80M510.50M1.27B984.10M429.80M
Investing Cash Flow-336.10M-338.20M-729.30M-323.40M-177.00M
Financing Cash Flow-301.20M-289.70M-576.60M-392.70M-261.50M

Matson Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price109.41
Price Trends
50DMA
111.89
Negative
100DMA
113.78
Negative
200DMA
128.30
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.06
Positive
RSI
47.97
Neutral
STOCH
47.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MATX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 109.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.96, below the 50-day MA of 111.89, and below the 200-day MA of 128.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MATX.

Matson Risk Analysis

Matson disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Matson reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Matson Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$2.23B9.6211.09%7.66%25.60%-9.32%
74
Outperform
$1.99B0.8472.40%50.75%65.83%
71
Outperform
$1.69B3.7814.14%3.63%4.93%-17.08%
70
Outperform
$6.51B23.008.95%2.99%19.03%
69
Neutral
$3.55B7.1820.48%1.24%11.88%80.21%
65
Neutral
$11.05B15.765.13%1.92%3.11%-24.90%
63
Neutral
$1.72B14.836.06%9.23%-7.73%-39.13%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MATX
Matson
109.41
-21.27
-16.28%
DAC
Danaos
92.24
10.58
12.96%
KEX
Kirby
118.48
-2.11
-1.75%
SBLK
Star Bulk Carriers
18.80
-2.48
-11.65%
GOGL
Golden Ocean Group
8.67
-2.86
-24.80%
ZIM
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services
16.73
4.99
42.50%

Matson Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Matson Amends Credit Agreement with Bank of America
Neutral
Jul 24, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Matson, Inc. entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, reducing its credit facility from $650 million to $550 million due to the nearly fully-funded status of its Aloha Class vessel build program and lower anticipated capital needs. The agreement includes amendments to covenants and terms, such as changes to the pricing grid and the elimination of the minimum consolidated interest coverage ratio financial covenant. Additionally, Matson amended its existing private placement facilities to align with these changes, reflecting strategic financial adjustments to support its long-term operational goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (MATX) stock is a Hold with a $136.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Matson stock, see the MATX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Matson Shareholders Approve 2025 Incentive Compensation Plan
Neutral
Apr 28, 2025

On April 24, 2025, Matson, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders where several key decisions were made. The shareholders approved the 2025 Incentive Compensation Plan, which allows for the issuance of 1,400,000 common shares, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025. Additionally, seven directors were elected to the board, and executive compensation was approved in an advisory vote.

Executive/Board Changes
Matson EVP Rusty Rolfe Announces Retirement
Neutral
Apr 28, 2025

On April 23, 2025, Rusty K. Rolfe, the Executive Vice President and President of Matson Logistics, announced his retirement from Matson, Inc., effective July 1, 2025. The company may enter into a Consulting Agreement with Mr. Rolfe to assist with the transition following his retirement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 16, 2025