Kirby (KEX) AI Stock Analysis

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Kirby

(NYSE:KEX)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$144.00

▲(22.39% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong operating performance and balance-sheet strength, reinforced by a constructive 2026 outlook and favorable price trend. Offsetting factors are weaker cash-flow quality in the financial statements and a less compelling valuation profile (P/E 23.8 with no dividend).

Positive Factors

Revenue and Margin Momentum

Sustained 22.2% TTM revenue growth with improving gross and net margins indicates durable demand and improved pricing/operational leverage in marine and services. This trend supports reinvestment, margin resilience across cycles, and a stronger earnings base over the next 2–6 months.

Low Leverage and Capital Flexibility

A very low debt-to-equity ratio and rising ROE provide durable financial flexibility to fund maintenance and growth CapEx, pursue selective M&A, and sustain buybacks. Low leverage reduces refinancing risk and strengthens the firm's ability to absorb cyclical shipping shocks.

Strong Cash Generation and Disciplined Returns

Consistent, sizable operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow underpin sustainable capital allocation: funding fleet maintenance, growth in power generation, debt paydowns and buybacks. Reliable cash conversion (despite caveats) supports strategic optionality over 2–6 months.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Conversion Quality

Despite strong reported earnings, poor cash conversion and negative FCF-to-net-income indicate earnings are not fully translating to cash. This structural mismatch can constrain sustained CapEx, debt reduction or shareholder returns and increases sensitivity to working-capital swings.

Shipyard and Revenue-Day Exposure

Planned higher shipyard days and associated downtime are structural timing risks that reduce available revenue days and compress early-year margins. This operational cadence creates recurring headwinds to utilization and margin stability through the upcoming maintenance cycle.

Oil & Gas Segment Volatility

A sharply down and highly volatile oil & gas subsegment exposes distribution results to cyclical swings. Given this segment's contribution to DNS, sustained weakness or volatility can materially pressure segment revenues, margins and backlog realization over the medium term.

Kirby (KEX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$6.38B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)736.92K

Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6

Beta (1Y)1.38

Revenue Growth1.59%

EPS Growth3.35%

CountryUS

Employees5,414

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryMarine Shipping

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.68

Shares Outstanding54,200,000

10 Day Avg. Volume902,517

30 Day Avg. Volume736,917

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.66

Price to Book (P/B)1.83

Price to Sales (P/S)1.88

P/FCF Ratio14.81

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.96

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.57

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.34

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$140.00

Price Target Upside18.99% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

EPS Forecast (FY)7.06

Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.55B

Kirby Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKirby Corporation operates domestic tank barges in the United States. Its Marine Transportation segment provides marine transportation service and towing vessel transporting bulk liquid product, as well as operates tank barge throughout the Mississippi River System, on the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, coastwise along three United States coasts, and in Alaska and Hawaii. It also transport petrochemical, black oil, refined petroleum product, and agricultural chemicals by tank barge; and operates offshore dry-bulk barge and tugboat unit that are engaged in the offshore transportation of dry-bulk cargo in the United States coastal trade. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 1,025 inland tank barge, approximately 255 inland towboat, 31 coastal tank barge, 29 coastal tugboat, 4 offshore dry-bulk cargo barge, 4 offshore tugboat, and 1 docking tugboat. Its Distribution and Services segment sells after-market service and genuine replacement part for engine, transmission, reduction gear, electric motor, drive, and control, electrical distribution and control system, energy storage battery system, and related oilfield service equipment; rebuild component parts or diesel engine, transmission and reduction gear, and related equipment used in oilfield service, marine, power generation, on-highway, and other industrial applications; rents generator, industrial compressor, high capacity lift truck, and refrigeration trailer; and manufactures and remanufactures oilfield service equipment, including pressure pumping unit, as well as manufacturers electric power generation equipment, specialized electrical distribution and control equipment, and high capacity energy storage/battery systems for oilfield customer. It serves to various companies and the United States government. The company was formerly known as Kirby Exploration Company, Inc. and changed its name to Kirby Corporation in 1990. Kirby Corporation was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyKirby generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cleaning equipment and accessories. The company employs a direct sales model, utilizing a network of independent distributors who sell products directly to consumers, which allows for higher margins compared to traditional retail channels. Key revenue streams include the sale of vacuum cleaners, replacement parts, and cleaning solutions. Additionally, Kirby benefits from recurring revenue through service contracts and warranties for its products. Strategic partnerships with distributors and a strong emphasis on customer service contribute to customer retention and repeat sales, further enhancing the company's earnings.

Kirby Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Reveals how different parts of the business contribute to overall sales, highlighting areas of strength and potential vulnerability within the company's operations.

Chart InsightsKirby's Marine Transportation segment shows a steady recovery with recent growth, despite a slight revenue dip compared to last year. The earnings call highlights strong coastal operations with high barge utilization and robust margins, offsetting inland transportation challenges. Meanwhile, the Distribution and Services segment is thriving, driven by a surge in power generation revenues, which boosted operating income by 40%. This momentum, coupled with strong free cash flow, positions Kirby for continued strength, especially in coastal operations and power generation, even amid seasonal slowdowns.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Kirby Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a decidedly positive operational and financial picture overall: record 2025 earnings, strong free cash flow ($406M), aggressive capital returns (>$100M buybacks) and debt reduction (~$130M) underpin a healthy balance sheet and confident outlook. Growth engines include a very strong coastal business and a rapidly expanding power generation business (power gen +47% YoY, backlog +30% YoY) that offset weakness in a small but volatile oil & gas subsegment. Near-term challenges (notably weather-related Q4 disruptions, rising medical costs, OEM/supply-chain lumpiness, shipyard activity and pronounced oil & gas declines) introduce some execution and timing risk for 2026 and explain the wide guidance range. On balance, the positive drivers (record cash generation, coastal strength, power generation momentum, balance-sheet improvements and share repurchases) outweigh the lowlights, supporting an overall constructive outlook for 2026.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record 2025 Earnings and Strong Free Cash Flow

Kirby reported a record year in 2025, generating strong cash flow metrics: $670 million of cash flow from operations for the year, $406 million of free cash flow for 2025 (exceeding guidance), and just over $265 million of free cash flow in Q4.

Aggressive Capital Returns and Balance Sheet Strengthening

Returned capital with $102 million in share repurchases (average price just under $99) and paid down approximately $130 million of debt in Q4; ended 12/31/2025 with $79 million cash, ~ $920 million total debt, and a debt-to-capital ratio of 21.4% with total available liquidity of about $542 million.

Marine Transportation Revenue and Income Growth (YoY)

Marine Transportation segment revenues of $482 million in Q4 with operating income of $100 million; segment revenues increased $14.9 million or ~3% year over year and operating income increased ~$14 million or ~17% year over year.

Coastal Business Strength

Coastal revenues increased 22% year over year, coastal barge utilization ran in the mid-to-high 90% range, coastal operating margin was approximately 20%, and coastal revenue represented ~21% of the Marine Transportation segment.

Inland Utilization Improving

Inland barge utilization improved through the quarter, averaging in the mid-to-high 80% range in Q4 and exiting the year close to ~90%; inland operating margins were in the low-20% range and full-year 2026 inland utilization is expected to average in the low-90% range with revenues up low-to-mid single digits year over year.

Distribution & Services (DNS) Growth Driven by Power Generation

DNS segment revenues were $370 million with operating income of $30 million and an 8.1% operating margin. DNS revenue grew ~10% year over year, driven by power generation which was up 47% year over year and grew 10% sequentially; power generation represented ~52% of DNS revenue and backlog was reported up ~11% sequentially and ~30% year over year.

Strong liquidity and disciplined CapEx guidance

2025 CapEx was $264 million (including ~$45 million growth CapEx); 2026 CapEx guided to $220–$260 million. Management expects continued strong free cash flow generation in 2026 and plans balanced capital allocation including share repurchases and selective M&A.

Constructive 2026 Outlook

Management expects steady year-over-year earnings growth in 2026, with inland pricing and utilization expected to firm, coastal revenue growth in the mid single digits, inland operating margins averaging high teens to low 20s, coastal margins in the high teens, and DNS margins in the mid-to-high single digits on average.

Negative Updates

Significant Weather-Related Disruptions in Q4

Typical seasonal winter weather and Gulf Coast storms produced an 82% sequential increase in delay days in Q4, negatively impacting operations and efficiency and pressuring Q4 revenues and margins.

Rising Medical Costs Dragging Margins

Management called out an increasing trend in medical costs that negatively impacted Q4 operating margins across both segments and expects medical cost pressure to continue in 2026.

Oil & Gas Business Weakness

Oil & Gas revenues declined 45% year over year and 33% sequentially in Q4, with operating income down ~30% year over year and 54% sequentially; Oil & Gas represented ~8% of DNS revenue, highlighting material volatility and downside in that subsegment.

Softness in Term Renewals and Spot Pricing in Q4

Term renewals were down in the low single digits and spot prices declined low single digits sequentially and mid-single digits year over year in Q4 (though management noted spot prices began rebounding in January).

Supply Chain and Working Capital Headwinds

Persistent OEM lead-time issues and supply constraints are causing lumpy deliveries (notably in power generation) and near-term headwinds for working capital; management expects to build working capital in 2026 to support power generation growth.

Shipyard Activity to Pressure Coastal Margins Early 2026

Management warned of a higher number of planned shipyard days in 2026 (shipyard days up ~10%+), which reduces revenue-producing days and is expected to create margin headwinds in the early part of the year despite constructive pricing.

Wide Earnings Guidance Range Reflects Uncertainty

Management provided a broad EPS/guidance range driven by timing and lumpiness of power generation deliveries, inland market uncertainty and timing of spot/term price improvements — introducing execution and timing risk for 2026 results.

Company Guidance

Kirby's 2026 guidance calls for steady, year‑over‑year earnings growth with inland barge utilization averaging in the low‑90% range (Q4 exit ≈90%; Q4 avg mid–high‑80%), inland revenues up low‑to‑mid single digits and inland margins averaging high‑teens to low‑20s; coastal utilization to remain mid‑90s with mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and coastal margins in the high‑teens; Distribution & Services revenues flat to slightly higher with segment margins mid‑to‑high single digits (power generation a key growth driver after +47% quarterly revenue and backlog up ~30% YoY); companywide CapEx $220–$260M for 2026, operating cash flow guidance $575–$675M, meaningful free cash flow expected (2025 FCF was $406M), 2025 CapEx $264M, inland fleet ~1,105 barges (24.5M barrels) flat in 2026, Q4 cash $79M, total liquidity ≈$542M, total debt ≈$920M (debt/capital 21.4%), and continued capital returns (Q4 buybacks ≈$102M) alongside disciplined M&A.

Kirby Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement trends (22.2% TTM revenue growth, improving margins) and a solid balance sheet with low leverage (0.063 debt-to-equity) support the score, but weak cash conversion and negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income dynamics materially temper it.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Kirby has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 22.2%, indicating robust demand in the marine shipping industry. The company maintains healthy profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 25.8% and a net profit margin of 9.2% in the TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, reflecting efficient cost management. Overall, the income statement shows a positive trajectory in revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is solid, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.063 in the TTM period, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity has improved to 9.1%, showcasing effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a well-capitalized structure. However, the company should monitor its debt levels to maintain this stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth, which is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.065, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights cash flow management issues. While the company has shown strong revenue growth, improving cash flow generation will be crucial for sustaining long-term operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.31B	3.27B	3.09B	2.78B	2.25B	2.17B
Gross Profit	856.36M	825.20M	700.06M	522.37M	379.98M	440.67M
EBITDA	694.77M	652.21M	557.29M	411.01M	-34.41M	-192.69M
Net Income	305.58M	286.71M	222.94M	122.29M	-246.95M	-272.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.06B	5.85B	5.72B	5.55B	5.40B	5.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	47.02M	74.44M	32.58M	80.58M	34.81M	80.34M
Total Debt	1.25B	1.06B	1.19B	1.26B	1.36B	1.66B
Total Liabilities	2.70B	2.50B	2.54B	2.51B	2.51B	2.84B
Stockholders Equity	3.36B	3.35B	3.19B	3.04B	2.89B	3.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.27M	413.83M	138.50M	121.52M	223.56M	296.75M
Operating Cash Flow	605.38M	756.49M	540.23M	294.13M	321.58M	444.94M
Investing Cash Flow	-401.29M	-400.13M	-413.15M	-139.60M	-55.79M	-485.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-224.13M	-314.50M	-175.08M	-108.76M	-311.31M	96.51M

Kirby Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price117.66

Price Trends

50DMA

116.35

Positive

100DMA

103.56

Positive

200DMA

104.92

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.77

Positive

RSI

41.05

Neutral

STOCH

35.73

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 117.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.44, above the 50-day MA of 116.35, and above the 200-day MA of 104.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KEX.

Kirby Risk Analysis

Kirby disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kirby reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kirby Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAC	81 Outperform	$1.89B	4.13	13.16%	3.64%	3.82%	-13.73%
CMRE	76 Outperform	$2.02B	6.70	14.98%	2.94%	-29.82%	-16.77%
KEX	74 Outperform	$6.38B	18.59	10.53%	―	1.59%	3.35%
MATX	68 Neutral	$5.00B	12.20	16.38%	1.13%	1.88%	9.30%
SBLK	67 Neutral	$2.61B	43.71	2.50%	1.59%	-13.87%	-82.48%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ZIM	62 Neutral	$2.65B	2.65	25.25%	20.35%	1.63%	-30.30%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KEX

Kirby

117.66

10.52

9.82%

CMRE

Costamare

16.78

8.66

106.52%

DAC

Danaos

103.45

27.94

37.00%

SBLK

Star Bulk Carriers

22.95

8.04

53.92%

MATX

Matson

160.30

25.62

19.03%

ZIM

22.03

8.77

66.14%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 29, 2026