Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.86B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: -1.72%
• EPS Growth: 70.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 322,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,022,683
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,711,404
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.74
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 41.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▲(7.59% Upside)

Mattel's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance with strong cash flow generation and a solid capital structure. The technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, presenting potential risks. Valuation metrics indicate the stock may be undervalued, offering a potential opportunity for investors. The positive impact of strategic corporate events and the mixed sentiment from the earnings call further influence the score. Strong international growth and operational excellence are significant positives, but challenges in key segments and trade dynamics pose risks.

Positive Factors

Content and IP Strategy

Mattel's evolution from a toy manufacturer to an IP-driven business and its efforts to monetize across both toys and non-toys are highlighted as strengths.

Supply Chain and Manufacturing

Mattel's diverse supply base and manufacturing redundancy are significant competitive advantages.

Tariff and Trade Policy

The game-changing de-escalation of tariff policy by the U.S. government has favorable implications for China-heavy manufacturers like Mattel.

Negative Factors

Earnings Outlook

The FY guide was reinstated with the midpoint of the updated EPS range approximately 5% below the prior outlook and approximately 3% below the current consensus.

Pricing Strategy

Concerns exist about the company's ability to realize incremental pricing without significant elasticity impacts.

Sales Performance

2Q US sales were impacted by timing shifts, with Mattel's 2Q net sales down 6% year-over-year and sales down 16% in North America.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys, games, and related products, with a significant portion of its earnings coming from its well-known brands. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, and Fisher-Price toys, as well as royalties from licensed merchandise and collaborations with entertainment franchises. Additionally, Mattel invests in digital gaming and content creation to diversify its offerings and tap into new markets. Strategic partnerships with film studios and entertainment companies further enhance its revenue potential by creating synergies with media properties and character-based products.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel demonstrates a solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and effective cost control, resulting in healthy profit margins. The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a balanced approach to leveraging, although the debt level poses potential risks. Strong cash generation is evident, supporting strategic investments and operational stability.

Income Statement

Mattel's income statement reveals a stable revenue base with a slight positive growth trajectory. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 51.0% for TTM, indicative of strong cost management, while the Net Profit Margin is at 9.8%, showing a modest profitability level. Although there was a decrease in Net Income from the previous year, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.5% and 16.7%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.26, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The Return on Equity (ROE) is 24.9%, showcasing effective use of equity for generating profits. With an Equity Ratio of 34.3%, Mattel maintains a solid equity cushion, though the overall debt level remains relatively high, indicating potential risk in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Mattel's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.1, reflecting efficient cash conversion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.5 highlights robust cash flow relative to accounting profits. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is slightly negative, but overall cash flow management remains strong, supporting ongoing operational investments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.59B
Gross Profit	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
EBITDA	987.23M	818.37M	875.37M	956.38M	569.44M
Net Income	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.39B	1.26B	761.24M	731.36M	762.18M
Total Debt	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.93B	3.18B
Total Liabilities	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	597.95M	709.49M	256.34M	334.11M	166.90M
Operating Cash Flow	800.57M	869.79M	442.84M	485.46M	285.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.22M	-105.10M	-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-449.35M	-226.57M	-260.64M	-402.07M	-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.71, below the 50-day MA of 18.82, and below the 200-day MA of 18.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GOLF	74 Outperform	$4.59B	20.90	27.51%	1.20%	3.83%	28.57%
YETI	69 Neutral	$2.76B	16.44	23.49%	―	3.63%	-2.60%
MAT	68 Neutral	$5.86B	11.57	25.39%	―	-1.72%	70.21%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥283.65B	15.19	6.81%	2.48%	5.05%	-21.29%
JAKK	67 Neutral	$191.17M	5.06	17.82%	2.92%	1.31%	23.14%
JOUT	67 Neutral	$402.70M	―	-8.33%	3.31%	-3.56%	-407.47%
HAS	61 Neutral	$11.38B	25.59	-81.67%	3.50%	-6.42%	45.85%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Stockholders Approve Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2025, Mattel‘s stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation, extending exculpation from liability to certain officers as permitted by Delaware law. Additionally, all director nominees were elected, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and executive compensation was approved. However, a proposal to disclose a plan to reduce climate change contributions was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAT) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mattel stock, see the MAT Stock Forecast page.