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Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQ:MAT
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Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(11.84% Upside)
Positive Factors
Competitive Positioning
Mattel is competitively positioned given it has half the exposure to China vs. the industry.
Consumer Positioning
Mattel reiterating guide at this point is a positive indication of how they believe the consumer is positioned for the holiday season.
Content and Demand
Stronger film slate coming out of Q2 and going into Q3 has anchored underlying demand strength.
Negative Factors
Consumer Spending Visibility
Visibility into consumer spending during the crucial 60-day holiday window is limited.
Earnings Outlook
The FY guide was reinstated with the midpoint of the updated EPS range ~5% below the prior outlook and ~3% below the current consensus.
Pricing Impact
It's too early to determine the impact of pricing actions on consumer demand.
Mattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-1.72%
EPS Growth70.21%
CountryUS
Employees34,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength81
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding322,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,644,599
30 Day Avg. Volume3,643,393
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio10.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.43Price Target Upside38.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyMattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys, games, and related products, with a significant portion of its earnings coming from its well-known brands. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, and Fisher-Price toys, as well as royalties from licensed merchandise and collaborations with entertainment franchises. Additionally, Mattel invests in digital gaming and content creation to diversify its offerings and tap into new markets. Strategic partnerships with film studios and entertainment companies further enhance its revenue potential by creating synergies with media properties and character-based products.
Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataMattel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed performance for Mattel, with significant achievements in international growth, adjusted gross margin, and certain product categories. However, challenges remain in the U.S. market and specific product lines, particularly within the Dolls and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool categories. Despite the setbacks, the company's strategic initiatives and operational excellence provide a positive outlook for the future.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
International Growth
Mattel experienced strong international growth, with gross billings increasing 9% across key regions such as EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific.
Adjusted Gross Margin Improvement
Adjusted gross margin increased by 200 basis points to 51.2%, attributed to cost savings, favorable mix, and supply chain efficiencies.
Strong Performance in Vehicles and Action Figures
The Vehicles category saw a 10% increase, driven by Hot Wheels, while Action Figures showed strong results with brands like Jurassic and Minecraft.
Operational Excellence
The company demonstrated operational excellence by maintaining EPS at $0.19 despite a challenging environment.
Strategic Collaboration with OpenAI
Mattel announced a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to leverage new technologies for brand expansion.
Negative Updates
Net Sales Decline
Net sales decreased by 6% as reported and in constant currency, primarily affected by global trade dynamics and retailer ordering patterns.
Dolls Category Decline
The Dolls category declined by 19%, mainly due to fewer new Barbie product launches and reduced retailer promotional support.
Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Category Decline
This category saw a 25% decline due to a decrease in Fisher-Price sales and planned exits of certain product lines.
Challenges in U.S. Market
The U.S. market faced challenges with gross billings decreasing by 15%, influenced by changes in retailer ordering patterns.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Mattel reported a 6% decline in net sales both as reported and in constant currency, while adjusted gross margin improved by 200 basis points to 51.2%. Adjusted earnings per share remained steady at $0.19. Internationally, gross billings rose by 9%, with growth in EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, though North America saw a 15% decline. Key categories like Vehicles and Action Figures showed strong growth, with Hot Wheels increasing by 9% and Action Figures benefiting from partnerships with franchises like Jurassic and Minecraft. Despite a 19% decline in Dolls, driven by fewer Barbie launches, Barbie remains the top doll brand globally. Mattel's adjusted operating income fell by $8 million to $88 million, and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 1% to $170 million. The company repurchased $50 million of shares in the quarter and $210 million year-to-date, with a target of $600 million for the full year. Inventory levels increased by $91 million, attributed to foreign exchange rates and tariff impacts. Mattel's leverage ratio improved to 2.2x, benefiting from increased adjusted EBITDA. For the full year 2025, Mattel expects net sales to grow 1% to 3% in constant currency, adjusted gross margin to be around 50%, and adjusted EPS between $1.54 and $1.66, with free cash flow approximately $500 million.Mattel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mattel showcases stable financial metrics with consistent revenue and profit margins. The company manages a balanced capital structure with moderate leverage, while cash flow generation remains strong. Although there are areas for improvement, particularly in net profit margins, overall financial health is sound, supported by solid operational efficiency and prudent financial management.Income Statement
Mattel's revenue shows slight fluctuations but has remained relatively stable recently. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at approximately 51.4%, indicating efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin for TTM is modest at about 9.9%, reflecting significant expenses or other financial obligations. EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate solid operational performance but have decreased slightly compared to previous years.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate, showing a balanced capital structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.79. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting that the company has a good proportion of its assets financed through shareholders' equity. Return on equity (ROE) has improved in TTM at 20.9%, indicating better profitability for equity investors.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Mattel has demonstrated a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating effective cash generation relative to accounting profit. Free cash flow has grown slightly, reflecting careful capital expenditure management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting effective conversion of accounting profits into cash.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.34B | 5.38B | 5.44B | 5.43B | 5.46B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 2.74B | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.48B | 2.63B | 2.24B |
| EBITDA | 959.42M | 987.23M | 818.37M | 875.37M | 956.38M | 569.44M |
| Net Income | 526.27M | 541.82M | 214.35M | 393.91M | 902.99M | 123.58M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.25B | 6.54B | 6.44B | 6.18B | 6.39B | 5.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 870.50M | 1.39B | 1.26B | 761.24M | 731.36M | 762.18M |
| Total Debt | 2.00B | 2.69B | 2.67B | 2.67B | 2.93B | 3.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.08B | 4.28B | 4.29B | 4.12B | 4.83B | 4.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.06B | 1.57B | 610.14M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 605.50M | 597.95M | 709.49M | 256.34M | 334.11M | 166.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 742.66M | 800.57M | 869.79M | 442.84M | 485.46M | 285.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -170.90M | -189.04M | -142.42M | -144.22M | -105.10M | -132.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -431.73M | -449.35M | -226.57M | -260.64M | -402.07M | -5.84M |
Mattel Technical Analysis
Negative
18.33
Price Trends
18.55
Negative
18.33
Positive
18.71
Negative
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
50.95
Neutral
55.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.24, below the 50-day MA of 18.55, and below the 200-day MA of 18.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.
Mattel Risk Analysis
Mattel disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mattel Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $4.49B | 20.46 | 27.51% | 1.24% | 3.83% | 28.57% | |
71 Outperform | $6.06B | 11.93 | 25.39% | ― | -1.72% | 70.21% | |
68 Neutral | $2.95B | 17.02 | 23.49% | ― | 3.63% | -2.60% | |
67 Neutral | $196.30M | 5.20 | 17.82% | 4.28% | 1.31% | 23.14% | |
61 Neutral | $18.02B | 12.77 | -0.75% | 3.01% | 1.30% | -13.03% | |
61 Neutral | $11.18B | 25.59 | -81.67% | 3.53% | -6.42% | 45.85% | |
44 Neutral | $181.04M | ― | -32.24% | ― | -9.07% | -38.09% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MAT
Mattel
18.33
0.10
0.55%
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings
75.74
13.57
21.83%
HAS
Hasbro
78.64
13.95
21.56%
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
17.51
-4.98
-22.14%
FNKO
Funko
3.33
-6.92
-67.51%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
35.61
-1.85
-4.94%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.