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Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQ:MAT
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Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

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MAT

Mattel

(NASDAQ:MAT)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(9.13%Upside)
Mattel's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance with strong cash flow generation and a solid capital structure. The technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, presenting potential risks. Valuation metrics indicate the stock may be undervalued, offering a potential opportunity for investors. The positive impact of strategic corporate events and the mixed sentiment from the earnings call further influence the score. Strong international growth and operational excellence are significant positives, but challenges in key segments and trade dynamics pose risks.
Positive Factors
Sales Performance
Mattel's POS commentary, with growth in all regions, instills confidence in the company's topline outlook.
Strategic Initiatives
Mattel's evolution from a toy manufacturer to an IP-driven business broadens its revenue opportunities.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
The adjusted EPS forecast is approximately 5% below previous expectations, raising concerns about financial performance.
Sales Timing
Uncertainty looms over the timing of sales recovery, as some of the 2Q sales shortfall may extend into the next year.

Mattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading global toy company that specializes in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a wide range of toy products. Founded in 1945 and headquartered in El Segundo, California, Mattel operates in the consumer goods sector, focusing on developing innovative toys and games. Its portfolio includes iconic brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, which are sold in over 150 countries worldwide. The company aims to inspire wonder in children and families through its diverse range of products and experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyMattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys and games, which are distributed through various channels, including mass retailers, specialty retailers, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. Key revenue streams include its core product lines such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, each contributing significantly to its overall earnings. The company also benefits from licensing agreements and collaborations with entertainment giants like Disney and Warner Bros., allowing it to produce toys based on popular TV shows and movies, thus broadening its market appeal. Additionally, Mattel leverages its intellectual property by extending its brands into digital and media content, including TV shows, movies, and online games, which further enhances brand visibility and drives consumer engagement.

Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Chart InsightsMattel's strategic focus on diversifying its supply chain and reducing reliance on China is paying off, as evidenced by strong performances in dolls, vehicles, and action figures. The earnings call highlights robust growth in these categories, driven by popular franchises like Disney Princess and Hot Wheels. However, the Infant, Toddler, and Preschool segment faces challenges, declining due to planned exits in certain product lines. Despite global trade uncertainties and a cautious outlook, Mattel's strategic initiatives and entertainment content expansions position it well to navigate potential tariff impacts.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Mattel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -13.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights strong international growth and operational excellence in margin management. However, these are offset by declines in net sales, particularly in the Dolls and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool segments, and challenges arising from global trade dynamics and tariffs.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
International Growth
Mattel achieved strong international growth with an increase of 9% in gross billings across regions, including EMEA at 8%, Latin America at 5%, and Asia Pacific at 16%.
Adjusted Gross Margin Expansion
Adjusted gross margin increased by 200 basis points to 51.2%, reflecting disciplined cost management and operational excellence.
Vehicles Segment Performance
Vehicles segment showed exceptional performance with a 10% increase in gross billings and a 9% increase for Hot Wheels, indicating high consumer demand.
Entertainment Strategy and Collaborations
Mattel announced a strategic collaboration with OpenAI and is advancing its entertainment strategy, including the establishment of Mattel Studios and upcoming film releases.
Negative Updates
Net Sales Decline
Net sales decreased by 6% as reported and in constant currency due to global trade dynamics and timing shifts in retailer ordering patterns.
Dolls Category Decline
Dolls category saw a 19% decline in gross billings, primarily due to fewer new Barbie product launches and reduced retailer promotional support.
Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Segment Decline
This segment decreased by 25% due to a decline in Fisher-Price and planned exits of certain product lines in Baby Gear & Power Wheels.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty
The U.S. business was impacted by global trade dynamics and uncertainty around tariffs, resulting in adjusted ordering patterns and a shift from direct import to domestic shipping.
Company Guidance
During Mattel's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the rest of the year, highlighting several key metrics. Net sales are expected to grow by 1% to 3% in constant currency, with an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50%. Adjusted operating income is projected to be between $700 million and $750 million, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to range from $1.54 to $1.66. Mattel expects to generate roughly $500 million in free cash flow for the full year, a reduction from prior guidance of $600 million, primarily due to the timing of working capital related to tariff implementations. Despite a 6% decline in net sales during the second quarter, adjusted gross margin increased by 200 basis points to 51.2%, and adjusted EPS remained stable at $0.19. The company emphasized its strong international growth and improved adjusted gross margin, while acknowledging the impact of global trade dynamics on its U.S. business.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mattel demonstrates a solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and effective cost control, resulting in healthy profit margins. The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a balanced approach to leveraging, although the debt level poses potential risks. Strong cash generation is evident, supporting strategic investments and operational stability.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Mattel's income statement reveals a stable revenue base with a slight positive growth trajectory. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 51.0% for TTM, indicative of strong cost management, while the Net Profit Margin is at 9.8%, showing a modest profitability level. Although there was a decrease in Net Income from the previous year, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.5% and 16.7%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.26, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The Return on Equity (ROE) is 24.9%, showcasing effective use of equity for generating profits. With an Equity Ratio of 34.3%, Mattel maintains a solid equity cushion, though the overall debt level remains relatively high, indicating potential risk in financial stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Mattel's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.1, reflecting efficient cash conversion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.5 highlights robust cash flow relative to accounting profits. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is slightly negative, but overall cash flow management remains strong, supporting ongoing operational investments.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.38B5.44B5.43B5.46B4.59B
Gross Profit2.73B2.58B2.48B2.63B2.24B
EBITDA987.23M818.37M875.37M956.38M569.44M
Net Income541.82M214.35M393.91M902.99M123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.54B6.44B6.18B6.39B5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.39B1.26B761.24M731.36M762.18M
Total Debt2.69B2.67B2.67B2.93B3.18B
Total Liabilities4.28B4.29B4.12B4.83B4.92B
Stockholders Equity2.26B2.15B2.06B1.57B610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow597.95M709.49M256.34M334.11M166.90M
Operating Cash Flow800.57M869.79M442.84M485.46M285.70M
Investing Cash Flow-189.04M-142.42M-144.22M-105.10M-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow-449.35M-226.57M-260.64M-402.07M-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price17.41
Price Trends
50DMA
19.31
Negative
100DMA
18.54
Negative
200DMA
18.89
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.41
Positive
RSI
35.14
Neutral
STOCH
18.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.44, below the 50-day MA of 19.31, and below the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Risk Analysis

Mattel disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mattel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$4.80B22.6827.15%1.11%2.07%24.87%
75
Outperform
$3.20B18.6525.01%8.38%3.69%
68
Neutral
$5.70B11.3925.39%-1.72%70.24%
62
Neutral
$17.27B9.93-8.46%3.20%1.63%-26.06%
62
Neutral
$196.95M5.2217.82%2.83%1.31%23.14%
62
Neutral
$340.35M-9.70%3.97%-7.28%-924.86%
60
Neutral
$10.69B25.59-80.03%3.67%-6.42%45.85%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAT
Mattel
17.41
-2.19
-11.17%
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings
81.41
9.56
13.31%
HAS
Hasbro
76.30
13.56
21.61%
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
17.75
-2.56
-12.60%
JOUT
Johnson Outdoors
33.41
-6.71
-16.72%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
37.91
-2.70
-6.65%

Mattel Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mattel Stockholders Approve Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 30, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2025, Mattel‘s stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation, extending exculpation from liability to certain officers as permitted by Delaware law. Additionally, all director nominees were elected, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and executive compensation was approved. However, a proposal to disclose a plan to reduce climate change contributions was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAT) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mattel stock, see the MAT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mattel Appoints Paul Ruh as New CFO
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 2, 2025, Mattel announced the appointment of Paul Ruh as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Ruh, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Kenvue and Johnson & Johnson, will succeed Anthony DiSilvestro, who will remain as an advisor until August 15, 2025. Ruh’s appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Mattel’s financial operations and support its multi-year strategy to unlock the full value of its intellectual property. Ruh’s expertise in guiding consumer brands to operational excellence is expected to contribute significantly to Mattel’s growth and shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025