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Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQ:MAT

Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

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MA

Mattel

(NASDAQ:MAT)

70Outperform
Mattel's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, but is tempered by bearish technical indicators and segment-specific challenges noted in the earnings call. The company's strategic initiatives and profitability achievements contribute positively, while caution is advised due to market momentum and uncertainties like tariffs.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Guidance for 2025 EPS of $1.66-$1.72 exceeded consensus of $1.58.
Market Position
Analysts believe that Mattel could grow sales faster than the market, supported by the theatrical slate and innovation.
Sales Growth
Mattel is expected to benefit from more theatrical releases, new collaborations, broader distribution, and new entertainment content, which strengthens its growth prospects.
Negative Factors
Earnings Outlook
The weaker earnings growth outlook seems to be largely driven by the inclusion of an anticipated impact of new US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada imports.
Inventory Challenges
The first quarter is expected to face headwinds from inventory and later Easter, which could impact sales.
Product Performance
Barbie continues to disappoint in the top-line performance, despite other brands like Hot Wheels performing well.

Mattel (MAT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading global toy company headquartered in El Segundo, California. The company is renowned for its portfolio of iconic brands, including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl. Mattel designs and manufactures a wide array of toys and consumer products, engaging children and families through play experiences. The company operates in the toy and entertainment industry, focusing on creating innovative products that inspire and entertain.
How the Company Makes MoneyMattel generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacture, and sale of toys and consumer products. Its revenue model is based on licensing its well-known brand names and characters, as well as direct sales of products through retailers and online channels. Mattel's key revenue streams include sales from its core brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price, as well as from collaborations and licensing agreements with entertainment and media companies. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and global distribution networks, which enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings. Additionally, Mattel has been expanding into digital and entertainment content, creating new revenue opportunities through media and gaming platforms.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mattel demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability metrics, improved cash flow, and a balanced capital structure. Despite a slight decline in revenue, improved net profit margins and return on equity indicate effective management and operational efficiency.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Mattel shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 50.8%, indicating efficient production relative to revenue. The net profit margin has improved significantly from 3.9% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2024, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, revenue slightly decreased by 1.1% from 2023 to 2024, which could be a concern if it continues. EBIT and EBITDA margins also highlight profitable operations, underscoring solid operational management.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.15, indicating a moderate level of leverage compared to equity. ROE improved to 23.9% in 2024 from 10% in 2023, reflecting better returns on shareholder investment. The equity ratio stands at 34.6%, showcasing a balanced capital structure. However, the company carries substantial debt, which may pose risks if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Free cash flow increased by 12.8% from 2023 to 2024, indicating improved cash generation efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.48, suggesting robust cash generation relative to net income, which is a positive sign. Additionally, free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.48, aligning cash flow with profitability.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.38B5.44B5.43B5.46B4.58B
Gross Profit
2.73B2.58B2.48B2.63B2.24B
EBIT
694.28M561.66M454.92M540.39M182.20M
EBITDA
987.23M766.53M819.33M909.01M573.26M
Net Income Common Stockholders
541.82M214.35M393.91M902.99M123.58M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.39B1.26B761.20M731.40M762.20M
Total Assets
6.54B6.44B6.18B6.39B5.52B
Total Debt
2.61B2.67B2.67B2.85B3.11B
Net Debt
1.22B1.41B1.91B2.12B2.34B
Total Liabilities
4.28B4.29B4.12B4.83B4.92B
Stockholders Equity
2.26B2.15B2.06B1.57B596.30M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
800.57M709.49M256.50M333.65M167.40M
Operating Cash Flow
800.57M869.79M443.00M485.00M289.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-189.04M-142.42M-144.00M-105.00M-135.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-449.35M-226.57M-269.00M-411.00M-21.00M

Mattel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price15.87
Price Trends
50DMA
18.40
Negative
100DMA
18.71
Negative
200DMA
18.81
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.74
Negative
RSI
43.18
Neutral
STOCH
88.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.39, below the 50-day MA of 18.40, and below the 200-day MA of 18.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Risk Analysis

Mattel disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mattel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$2.36B13.8924.01%10.32%6.05%
71
Outperform
$215.01M4.7321.81%1.28%2.89%41.09%
MAMAT
70
Outperform
$5.12B9.9624.55%-1.13%163.15%
69
Neutral
$3.97B19.6726.30%1.35%3.15%15.44%
HAHAS
64
Neutral
$7.28B18.9338.67%3.39%-10.32%
61
Neutral
$6.55B11.723.07%4.01%2.66%-21.27%
55
Neutral
$242.51M-9.70%5.78%-9.98%-348.96%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAT
Mattel
15.87
-2.56
-13.89%
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings
65.81
4.74
7.76%
HAS
Hasbro
60.71
1.51
2.55%
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
18.42
-0.45
-2.38%
JOUT
Johnson Outdoors
23.72
-17.08
-41.86%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
28.35
-6.04
-17.56%

Mattel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -12.17%|
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong financial performance with significant achievements in profitability, gross margin expansion, and strategic initiatives in entertainment and games. However, challenges remain in the Dolls and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool segments, along with uncertainties surrounding tariff impacts.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Profit Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted gross margin improved 340 basis points, adjusted EBITDA increased $110 million or 12%, adjusted earnings per share increased 32%, and free cash flow was nearly $600 million.
Hot Wheels Success
Hot Wheels achieved its seventh consecutive record year with 17% growth in Q4 and is expected to have another record year in 2025.
UNO and Games Category Growth
Games category saw double-digit growth, with UNO achieving its highest year on record.
Entertainment Strategy Progress
Announced 16 films in development or production with major studio partners, and successful TV shows on platforms like Netflix and Max.
Share Repurchase Program
Repurchased $400 million of shares in 2024 with plans to repurchase an additional $600 million in 2025.
Negative Updates
Dolls Category Decline
Dolls gross billings declined 8% for the full year, with Barbie declining 12% due to the prior year's movie-related comparison.
Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Segment Weakness
This segment declined 4%, impacted by the company's exit from specific product lines in Baby Gear and Power Wheels.
Tariff Uncertainty
New U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada could pose challenges, with mitigating strategies yet to be fully detailed.
Retail Inventory Concerns
Retail inventory levels were slightly elevated at the end of 2024, posing a potential headwind for Q1 2025.
Company Guidance
During Mattel, Inc.'s Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, CEO Ynon Kreiz highlighted several key financial metrics and strategic achievements. For the full year, Mattel's net sales declined by 0.5% in constant currency, while adjusted gross margin improved by 340 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $110 million, or 12%, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 32%. The company generated nearly $600 million in free cash flow, despite the absence of the prior year's $100 million operating income boost from the Barbie movie. The "optimizing for profitable growth" program yielded $83 million in savings towards the $200 million target by 2026. Mattel ended the year with $1.4 billion in cash after a $400 million share repurchase. For 2025, Mattel anticipates net sales growth of 2% to 3% in constant currency and adjusted EPS growth of 2% to 6%, alongside continued investments in its digital game self-publishing business.

Mattel Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mattel Announces CFO Retirement and Leadership Transition
Neutral
Jan 16, 2025

On January 13, 2025, Mattel’s CFO, Anthony DiSilvestro, announced his retirement effective May 15, 2025, after serving since August 2020. DiSilvestro will continue as an advisor for 90 days post-retirement to ensure a smooth transition, as the company undergoes a search for his successor. Under his leadership, Mattel achieved significant financial milestones, enhancing its position as a high-performing toy company. This transition marks a pivotal moment for Mattel’s strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders and the market.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.