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Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(5.33% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/03/26
The score is anchored by solid but uneven fundamentals: strong TTM revenue rebound and healthy margins are offset by weaker cash-flow conversion and still-elevated leverage. Valuation is supportive (low P/E), but technicals remain mixed with a negative MACD and the stock below key long-term moving averages. Earnings-call takeaways are balanced—reiterated full-year guidance and long-term growth targets, but near-term margin pressure (tariffs/FX) and weaker profitability/free cash flow limit upside.
Positive Factors
Strong IP & brand portfolio
Mattel’s deep, globally recognized franchises create durable demand, recurring licensing, and merchandising opportunities. A strong IP base supports higher-margin licensing, content monetization, and cross-channel activation that can sustain revenue and brand equity over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage limits financial flexibility for a consumer cyclical company, increasing vulnerability to demand shocks or rising rates. High debt constrains reinvestment, makes continued buybacks and opportunistic M&A more costly, and raises refinancing risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong IP & brand portfolio
Mattel’s deep, globally recognized franchises create durable demand, recurring licensing, and merchandising opportunities. A strong IP base supports higher-margin licensing, content monetization, and cross-channel activation that can sustain revenue and brand equity over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-0.25%
EPS Growth2.23%
CountryUS
Employees34,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.57
Shares Outstanding290,600,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,746,891
30 Day Avg. Volume4,428,049
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)2.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.18
P/FCF Ratio15.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.11Price Target Upside19.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.68B
Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mattel, Inc. functions as a worldwide children's entertainment corporation, primarily engaged in the design and production of a diverse range of toys and consumer goods. The company's operations are segmented into North America, International, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Mattel primarily makes money by selling toys and related products to retailers and distributors, and increasingly by monetizing its intellectual property (IP) through licensing and entertainment. (1) Core toy sales: The largest revenue stream come...
Mattel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: solid top‑line progress, strong brand and international momentum, strategic progress on digital gaming and entertainment IP, and continued capital returns. Those positives were offset by meaningful margin compression, Q1 profitability losses, weaker free cash flow and notable declines in Barbie and the infant/preschool category. Management reiterated full‑year revenue guidance and expects margin improvement over the year, but near‑term profitability and tariff-related risks weigh on the tone.Positive Updates
Top‑Line Growth Above Expectations
Net sales of $862 million, up 4% as reported and 1% in constant currency; total gross billings +2% in constant currency; global POS up mid‑single digits, indicating stronger consumer demand and a better-than-expected start to the year.
Negative Updates
Significant Gross Margin Compression
Adjusted gross margin declined 450 basis points to 45.1% in Q1; drivers include +240 bps from tariffs, +140 bps unfavorable foreign exchange and +90 bps from inflation, only partially offset by mitigation actions (~30 bps benefit).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top‑Line Growth Above Expectations
Net sales of $862 million, up 4% as reported and 1% in constant currency; total gross billings +2% in constant currency; global POS up mid‑single digits, indicating stronger consumer demand and a better-than-expected start to the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mattel reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance calling for net sales growth of 3%–6% in constant currency (with current spot rates implying a 1–2 ppt FX tailwind on reported sales), an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50% for the year (Q2 expected to improve sequentially but remain below 50%), adjusted operating income of $580M–$630M (including a $30M recast adjustment) and adjusted EPS of $1.27–$1.39. Management expects vehicles and challenger categories to grow strongly, ITPS to decline, and continues $150M of strategic investments in 2026 (about $110M excluding ~$40M of user‑acquisition spend) that it says will be net‑positive to the P&L in 2027; it also expects 2027 revenue to grow mid‑ to high‑single digits in constant currency with strong double‑digit adjusted operating income growth. Capital allocation and balance‑sheet context in the guidance: target $400M of share repurchases this year (Q1 repurchase $200M; $1.4B repurchased since 2023, ~21% fewer shares outstanding), trailing‑12‑month free cash flow $335M, cash $866M at quarter end and gross leverage ~2.7x.Mattel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.38B | 5.35B | 5.38B | 5.44B | 5.43B | 5.46B |
| Gross Profit | 2.58B | 2.61B | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.48B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 888.58M | 774.10M | 987.23M | 818.37M | 875.37M | 956.38M |
| Net Income | 498.92M | 397.60M | 541.82M | 214.35M | 393.91M | 902.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.33B | 6.64B | 6.54B | 6.44B | 6.18B | 6.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 866.00M | 1.24B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 761.24M | 731.36M |
| Total Debt | 2.60B | 2.87B | 2.69B | 2.67B | 2.67B | 2.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.22B | 4.41B | 4.28B | 4.29B | 4.12B | 4.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.11B | 2.23B | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.06B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 334.63M | 411.26M | 597.95M | 709.49M | 256.34M | 334.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 545.59M | 593.30M | 800.57M | 869.79M | 442.84M | 485.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -267.19M | -154.90M | -189.04M | -142.42M | -144.22M | -105.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -629.67M | -620.57M | -449.35M | -226.57M | -260.64M | -402.07M |
Mattel Technical Analysis
Negative
15.19
Price Trends
14.60
Negative
15.27
Negative
17.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
39.64
Neutral
25.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.11, above the 50-day MA of 14.60, and below the 200-day MA of 17.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.
Mattel Risk Analysis
Mattel disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mattel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $3.73B | 24.61 | 22.54% | ― | 3.16% | -4.60% | |
63 Neutral | $3.99B | 8.75 | 22.75% | ― | -0.25% | 2.23% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $6.93B | 41.51 | 20.87% | 1.15% | 6.34% | -21.30% | |
58 Neutral | $267.11M | 32.42 | 3.24% | 5.97% | -21.02% | -82.84% | |
56 Neutral | $11.53B | -50.91 | -48.30% | 3.44% | 12.74% | -152.25% | |
55 Neutral | $319.09M | -5.40 | -32.19% | ― | -10.39% | -191.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MAT
Mattel
13.74
-6.81
-33.14%
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FNKO
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15.93
47.85%
Mattel Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Mattel Shareholders Approve Expanded Long-Term Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
Mattel held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 28, 2026, where shareholders approved an amendment and restatement of the company’s 2010 Equity and Long-Term Compensation Plan, adding 2,155,000 shares to the equity pool and extend...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mattel Announces Leadership Transition in Global Commercial Operations
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Mattel announced that President and Chief Commercial Officer Steve Totzke will step down from his role effective May 1, 2026, after a three-decade career in the toy industry and key contributions to building the company’s g...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.