tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQ:MAT
Advertisement

Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,480 Followers

Top Page

MAT

Mattel

(NASDAQ:MAT)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(11.58% Upside)
Mattel's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and stable financial performance. The stock shows bullish momentum, supported by positive moving averages and momentum indicators. Financially, the company maintains strong gross profit margins and effective cash flow management, though net profit margins could improve. The valuation is reasonable, with a P/E ratio suggesting fair pricing. The absence of a dividend yield is a minor drawback.
Positive Factors
Strong Brand Portfolio
Mattel's strong brand portfolio provides a durable competitive advantage, enabling it to maintain market leadership and drive consistent revenue through brand loyalty and recognition.
Global Licensing Expansion
Expanding global licensing agreements enhances Mattel's revenue streams and market reach, leveraging popular cultural phenomena to drive long-term growth and brand engagement.
Digital and Entertainment Expansion
Mattel's expansion into digital gaming and entertainment diversifies its offerings, tapping into growing digital markets and enhancing its competitive position in the evolving toy industry.
Negative Factors
Decline in Net Sales
A decline in net sales indicates potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth, which could impact long-term profitability and market position if not addressed.
Gross Margin Pressure
Decreasing gross margins due to external factors like inflation and tariffs could strain profitability, affecting Mattel's ability to invest in growth and innovation over time.
Inventory Management Issues
Rising inventory levels can lead to increased holding costs and potential write-downs, impacting cash flow and operational efficiency if not managed effectively.

Mattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyMattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys, games, and related products, with a significant portion of its earnings coming from its well-known brands. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, and Fisher-Price toys, as well as royalties from licensed merchandise and collaborations with entertainment franchises. Additionally, Mattel invests in digital gaming and content creation to diversify its offerings and tap into new markets. Strategic partnerships with film studios and entertainment companies further enhance its revenue potential by creating synergies with media properties and character-based products.

Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Chart InsightsMattel's Vehicles segment is thriving, driven by strong consumer demand and a 10% rise in gross billings, especially for Hot Wheels. However, the Dolls and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool segments are struggling, with declines of 19% and 25%, respectively, due to fewer new launches and strategic exits. Despite a 6% drop in net sales, Mattel's international growth and margin improvements highlight operational resilience. The company is also focusing on entertainment collaborations, which could diversify revenue streams amid global trade challenges.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Mattel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong consumer demand and successful product launches, with strategic expansions in digital gaming and global licensing. However, the company faced challenges with shifts in U.S. retailer ordering patterns, resulting in declines in key financial metrics. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about a strong fourth quarter and holiday season.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consumer Demand Growth
Consumer demand for Mattel's products grew in every region, including the U.S., with an increase in gross billings in the international market.
Share Repurchase Program
Mattel repurchased $202 million of shares in the third quarter, bringing the total to $412 million for the year, with a target of $600 million for the full year.
New Product Launch Success
Strong starts for new product lines such as Mattel Brick Shop in building sets and Hot Wheel Speed Snap Track system in vehicles.
American Girl Growth
American Girl achieved its fourth consecutive quarter of growth, driven by strength in direct-to-consumer, omnichannel retail, and wholesale channels.
Digital Games and Entertainment Expansion
Progress on self-published digital games, new live-action television series, and strategic collaboration with OpenAI.
Global Licensing Rights and Market Share
Mattel awarded global licensing rights for K-Pop Demon Hunter's products and renewed multiyear licensing agreement for Disney Princess and Frozen franchises.
POS Growth
Point of Sale (POS) increased overall with growth in every region, including the U.S.
Toy Industry Growth
The toy industry grew high single digits in the third quarter, indicating strong momentum.
Negative Updates
U.S. Retailer Ordering Patterns
Shifts in U.S. retailer ordering patterns from direct import to domestic shipping affected net sales, adjusted operating income, and adjusted earnings per share.
Decline in Key Financial Metrics
Net sales decreased by 6%, with a 7% decline in constant currency, and adjusted operating income decreased by $117 million.
Gross Margin Decrease
Adjusted gross margin decreased by 290 basis points to 50.2% due to unfavorable foreign exchange, inflation, tariff costs, and higher sales adjustments.
Category Performance Discrepancies
Doll category declined by 12%, primarily due to Barbie and Polly Pocket, and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool (ITPS) declined by 26%.
Inventory Levels
Mattel's inventory increased by $89 million compared to the prior year, reflecting tariff-related costs and foreign exchange.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Mattel faced challenges in the U.S. market due to shifts in retailer ordering patterns, yet experienced growing consumer demand across all regions. The company maintained a gross margin above 50% and repurchased $202 million in shares, totaling $412 million for the year with a target of $600 million for the full year. Net sales decreased by 6% as reported, with an adjusted operating income decline of $117 million to $387 million, and adjusted earnings per share dropped by $0.25 to $0.89. However, the international business saw growth, with EMEA and Asia Pacific increasing gross billings by 3% and 11%, respectively. For the full year, Mattel reiterated its guidance of 1% to 3% net sales growth in constant currency, an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50%, and adjusted EPS ranging from $1.54 to $1.66. The company is optimistic about a strong holiday season, supported by positive POS growth and accelerated retailer orders in the U.S., while preparing for a robust fourth-quarter performance.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mattel showcases stable financial metrics with consistent revenue and profit margins. The company manages a balanced capital structure with moderate leverage, while cash flow generation remains strong. Although there are areas for improvement, particularly in net profit margins, overall financial health is sound, supported by solid operational efficiency and prudent financial management.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Mattel's revenue shows slight fluctuations but has remained relatively stable recently. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at approximately 51.4%, indicating efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin for TTM is modest at about 9.9%, reflecting significant expenses or other financial obligations. EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate solid operational performance but have decreased slightly compared to previous years.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate, showing a balanced capital structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.79. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting that the company has a good proportion of its assets financed through shareholders' equity. Return on equity (ROE) has improved in TTM at 20.9%, indicating better profitability for equity investors.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Mattel has demonstrated a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating effective cash generation relative to accounting profit. Free cash flow has grown slightly, reflecting careful capital expenditure management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting effective conversion of accounting profits into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.34B5.38B5.44B5.43B5.46B4.59B
Gross Profit2.74B2.73B2.58B2.48B2.63B2.24B
EBITDA959.42M987.23M818.37M875.37M956.38M569.44M
Net Income526.27M541.82M214.35M393.91M902.99M123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.25B6.54B6.44B6.18B6.39B5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments870.50M1.39B1.26B761.24M731.36M762.18M
Total Debt2.00B2.69B2.67B2.67B2.93B3.18B
Total Liabilities4.08B4.28B4.29B4.12B4.83B4.92B
Stockholders Equity2.17B2.26B2.15B2.06B1.57B610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow605.50M597.95M709.49M256.34M334.11M166.90M
Operating Cash Flow742.66M800.57M869.79M442.84M485.46M285.70M
Investing Cash Flow-170.90M-189.04M-142.42M-144.22M-105.10M-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow-431.73M-449.35M-226.57M-260.64M-402.07M-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.82
Price Trends
50DMA
17.85
Positive
100DMA
18.36
Positive
200DMA
18.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Negative
RSI
63.54
Neutral
STOCH
91.55
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.67, above the 50-day MA of 17.85, and above the 200-day MA of 18.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Risk Analysis

Mattel disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mattel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$5.92B11.8425.39%-1.72%70.21%
73
Outperform
$4.63B21.5227.51%1.15%3.83%28.57%
70
Neutral
$216.14M5.6917.82%3.81%1.31%23.14%
64
Neutral
$2.76B16.2223.49%3.63%-2.60%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
54
Neutral
$10.49B-81.67%3.74%-6.42%45.85%
45
Neutral
$161.11M-32.24%-9.07%-38.09%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAT
Mattel
18.82
1.04
5.85%
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings
79.84
20.38
34.28%
HAS
Hasbro
74.83
7.35
10.89%
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
19.69
-4.50
-18.60%
FNKO
Funko
2.94
-9.01
-75.40%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
34.92
-1.09
-3.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025