Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQ:MAT
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Mattel
(NASDAQ:MAT)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(4.02% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (downtrend and negative momentum) and mixed fundamentals (flat revenue and margin volatility, with still-meaningful debt). Offsetting this are solid cash generation, a reasonable earnings multiple, and earnings-call initiatives (cost savings, buybacks, and the Mattel 163 acquisition) that support the longer-term setup despite near-term investment-driven pressure.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow give Mattel durable internal funding to support strategic investments, the $1.5B buyback plan, and M&A without relying solely on capital markets. Improved cash conversion (~1.0x) also enhances resilience through retail cycles and buffers balance sheet stress.
Negative Factors
Limited top-line momentum
Stagnant revenue constrains operating leverage and makes margin recovery and EPS growth more reliant on cost programs, buybacks, or accretive M&A. Without sustained organic sales acceleration, growth targets (2027 mid-to-high single digits) hinge on execution of digital strategy and category turnarounds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent operating and free cash flow give Mattel durable internal funding to support strategic investments, the $1.5B buyback plan, and M&A without relying solely on capital markets. Improved cash conversion (~1.0x) also enhances resilience through retail cycles and buffers balance sheet stress.
Read all positive factors
Mattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.36B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-2.36%
EPS Growth-16.06%
CountryUS
Employees34,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding302,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,617,151
30 Day Avg. Volume4,896,117
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)2.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.18
P/FCF Ratio15.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.30Price Target Upside26.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.63B
Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content...
How the Company Makes Money
Mattel primarily makes money by selling toys and related consumer products. Revenue is generated through (1) wholesale sales to retailers and distributors (e.g., mass retailers, specialty toy stores, and regional distributors) where Mattel ships p...
Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMattel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflected a mix of operational and strategic progress alongside notable near-term financial and margin challenges. Highlights include solid Q4 top-line growth, strong performance in vehicles, games, and challenger categories, a strategic and accretive acquisition of Mattel 163 to scale digital games, disciplined share repurchases and strong balance sheet metrics, and continued cost-savings momentum. Lowlights centered on US December softness that caused full-year results to underperform expectations, meaningful margin compression (Q4 gross margin down 480 bps), declines in ITPS and certain doll segments for the year, and reduced free cash flow and profitability. Management provided 2026 guidance that factors in investments that will weigh on results in the near term but is positioned to drive accelerated revenue and profit growth in 2027 under a brand-centric, IP-driven strategy.Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter Top-Line Growth
Gross billings grew 6% in Q4 (7% North America, 4% International); total company POS grew ~3% for both Q4 and the full year. Q4 net sales were $1.77 billion, up 7% reported (up 5% constant currency).
Negative Updates
Full-Year Results Missed Expectations; US December Softness
Full-year results finished below expectations driven by the US market, where December gross billings grew less than anticipated following a volatile retailer ordering pattern and heightened promotional activity; management noted Q4 acceleration earlier in the quarter but December underperformance materially impacted FY results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fourth Quarter Top-Line Growth
Gross billings grew 6% in Q4 (7% North America, 4% International); total company POS grew ~3% for both Q4 and the full year. Q4 net sales were $1.77 billion, up 7% reported (up 5% constant currency).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mattel guided 2026 net sales growth of 3%–6% in constant currency (with current FX providing ~+1.5 ppt to reported sales), a low‑single‑digit decline in Q1, and an adjusted gross margin of ~50% for the full year; adjusted operating income of $550–$600 million (which assumes ~$110 million of strategic investments plus ~$40 million of digital performance marketing/user acquisition), an adjusted tax rate of ~24%, and adjusted EPS of $1.18–$1.30. Guidance includes a partial‑year contribution from the Mattel 163 acquisition (~$150 million of sales), expects ITPS to be a ~2%–3% headwind to total gross billings, factors ~ $50 million of OPG savings in 2026 (with a total program target of ~$225 million), plans to repurchase $1.5 billion of stock over three years (including $400 million in 2026), and anticipates these 2026 investments to be self‑funding with mid‑to‑high‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit adjusted operating income growth targeted for 2027.Mattel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.35B | 5.38B | 5.44B | 5.43B | 5.46B |
| Gross Profit | 2.61B | 2.73B | 2.58B | 2.48B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 774.10M | 987.23M | 818.37M | 875.37M | 956.38M |
| Net Income | 397.60M | 541.82M | 214.35M | 393.91M | 902.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.64B | 6.54B | 6.44B | 6.18B | 6.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 1.39B | 1.26B | 761.24M | 731.36M |
| Total Debt | 2.87B | 2.69B | 2.67B | 2.67B | 2.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.41B | 4.28B | 4.29B | 4.12B | 4.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.23B | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.06B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 411.26M | 597.95M | 709.49M | 256.34M | 334.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 593.30M | 800.57M | 869.79M | 442.84M | 485.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -154.90M | -189.04M | -142.42M | -144.22M | -105.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -583.30M | -449.35M | -226.57M | -260.64M | -402.07M |
Mattel Technical Analysis
Negative
14.42
Price Trends
17.04
Negative
18.74
Negative
18.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.72
Negative
32.33
Neutral
28.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.05, below the 50-day MA of 17.04, and below the 200-day MA of 18.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.
Mattel Risk Analysis
Mattel disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mattel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.73B | 21.84 | 22.66% | ― | 1.56% | -17.21% | |
63 Neutral | $5.52B | 25.34 | 23.39% | 1.15% | 4.20% | 24.12% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $12.58B | -36.02 | -54.74% | 3.44% | 0.87% | 14.02% | |
58 Neutral | $4.36B | 14.29 | 18.08% | ― | -2.36% | -16.06% | |
52 Neutral | $241.13M | -8.87 | 4.05% | 5.97% | -16.49% | -81.62% | |
49 Neutral | $202.15M | -252.62 | -35.34% | ― | -11.32% | -165.08% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MAT
Mattel
14.42
-1.44
-9.08%
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Mattel Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mattel Announces Leadership Transition in Global Commercial Operations
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Mattel announced that President and Chief Commercial Officer Steve Totzke will step down from his role effective May 1, 2026, after a three-decade career in the toy industry and key contributions to building the company’s g...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Mattel Unveils New Buyback Plan Amid Mixed 2025 Results
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Mattel reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of $1.77 billion, up 7% year over year, while net income fell to $106 million as gross margins compressed on higher discounts, inflation and FX headwinds. Full-year 2025 net sales...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.