Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -2.36%
• EPS Growth: -16.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.89
• Shares Outstanding: 310,823,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,000,209
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,046,065
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.82
• 1Y Price Target: $24.29
• Price Target Upside: 22.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.43B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(15.69% Upside)

Mattel's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow and positive technical indicators. The company's strategic initiatives, such as the Senior Notes offering, and optimism for the holiday season contribute positively. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability margins, along with shifts in U.S. retailer ordering patterns, present risks that temper the score.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation enhances Mattel's ability to invest in growth opportunities and maintain financial stability, supporting long-term operations.

Debt Refinancing

Refinancing debt with new notes at a higher rate but longer term can improve financial flexibility and reduce near-term interest expenses.

Digital Expansion

Expanding digital offerings and entertainment presence can diversify revenue streams and strengthen brand engagement over time.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue indicates challenges in maintaining market share and could pressure profitability if not addressed.

Profit Margin Pressure

Decreasing margins due to cost pressures and unfavorable conditions may affect long-term profitability and competitiveness.

Inventory Levels

Rising inventory levels can lead to higher holding costs and potential write-downs, impacting financial health if not managed effectively.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its toys and games to retailers, wholesalers, and directly to consumers. The company's revenue model is multifaceted, encompassing several key streams: retail sales from their extensive range of products, licensing agreements for the use of their brand names and characters in various media and merchandise, and direct-to-consumer sales through their online platforms. Significant partnerships with major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Amazon bolster their distribution channels. Additionally, Mattel has engaged in collaborations with entertainment companies to produce movies and shows that enhance brand visibility and drive toy sales, creating a synergistic effect that contributes to its overall earnings.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel's financial performance is stable with strong cash flow generation and improved leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability margins persist, requiring focus on operational efficiency and cost control.

Income Statement

Mattel's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 50.32%, indicating efficient production and sales processes. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 8.27% from 10.07% in the previous year, reflecting challenges in controlling costs or pricing strategies. Revenue growth is negative at -2.02% TTM, suggesting a decline in sales compared to the previous period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.76 TTM from 1.19 the previous year, showing reduced leverage and a more balanced capital structure. Return on equity is solid at 18.81% TTM, although it has decreased from 23.93% the previous year, indicating a slight decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a consistent asset base.

Cash Flow

Mattel's cash flow statement is robust, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 126.1% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.33, although it has decreased from 0.61 the previous year, suggesting a need for improved cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 93.07%, reflecting efficient cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.23B	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.59B
Gross Profit	2.63B	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
EBITDA	832.07M	987.23M	818.37M	875.37M	956.38M	569.44M
Net Income	432.26M	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.59B	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	691.89M	1.39B	1.26B	761.24M	731.36M	762.18M
Total Debt	2.67B	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.93B	3.18B
Total Liabilities	4.33B	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	2.26B	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	488.31M	597.95M	709.49M	256.34M	334.11M	166.90M
Operating Cash Flow	658.85M	800.57M	869.79M	442.84M	485.46M	285.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-134.81M	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.22M	-105.10M	-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-561.38M	-449.35M	-226.57M	-260.64M	-402.07M	-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.61, above the 50-day MA of 19.53, and above the 200-day MA of 18.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YETI	78 Outperform	$3.51B	23.38	21.77%	―	1.56%	-17.21%
MAT	75 Outperform	$6.15B	14.89	18.90%	―	-2.36%	-16.06%
GOLF	74 Outperform	$4.81B	22.43	25.91%	1.15%	4.20%	24.12%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HAS	56 Neutral	$11.45B	-20.32	-65.93%	3.43%	0.87%	14.02%
JAKK	56 Neutral	$194.06M	34.06	2.40%	5.97%	-16.49%	-81.62%
FNKO	48 Neutral	$167.28M	-2.44	-32.77%	―	-11.32%	-165.08%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Issues $600M Senior Notes for Debt Refinancing

On November 17, 2025, Mattel, Inc. issued $600 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due in 2030 to refinance its outstanding 3.375% Senior Notes due 2026. The issuance of these notes is part of Mattel’s strategic financial management to optimize its debt structure, potentially impacting its operational flexibility and financial stability by replacing existing debt with a new financial instrument.

Mattel Announces $600 Million Senior Notes Offering

On November 5, 2025, Mattel announced the pricing of its $600 million public offering of 5.000% Senior Notes due 2030, expected to close on November 17, 2025. The proceeds will be used to redeem existing 3.375% Senior Notes due 2026, impacting the company’s financial strategy by potentially reducing interest expenses and improving debt management.