Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -1.72%
• EPS Growth: 70.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 322,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,118,655
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,912,280
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.58
• 1Y Price Target: $25.29
• Price Target Upside: 46.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(18.63% Upside)

Mattel's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial performance and attractive valuation, indicating potential for future growth. Technical indicators suggest a neutral market position, while the earnings call highlights both international successes and domestic challenges. The company's strategic initiatives and operational resilience provide a positive outlook despite current market difficulties.

Positive Factors

International Growth

International growth indicates successful market expansion and diversification, reducing reliance on any single market and enhancing global brand presence.

Adjusted Gross Margin Improvement

Improved gross margins reflect efficient cost management and operational effectiveness, supporting profitability and competitive pricing strategies.

Strategic Collaboration with OpenAI

Collaboration with OpenAI suggests innovation and adaptation in digital spaces, potentially enhancing product offerings and market relevance.

Negative Factors

Net Sales Decline

Declining net sales highlight challenges in demand and market conditions, potentially impacting revenue stability and growth prospects.

Dolls Category Decline

A decline in the Dolls category, a core product line, suggests potential brand fatigue and the need for innovation to sustain consumer interest.

Challenges in U.S. Market

Challenges in the U.S. market, a key revenue source, indicate potential vulnerabilities in domestic operations and market dynamics.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company operates through North America, International, and American Girl segments. It offers dolls and accessories, as well as content, gaming, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals brands; dolls and books under the American Girl brand name; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids of all ages, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart brand names; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising content, toys, live events, and other lifestyle products under the Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power wheels, and Fireman Sam brands. The company also provides action figures, building sets, and games under the Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. It sells its products directly to consumers through its catalog, website, and proprietary retail stores; retailers, including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; and wholesalers, as well as through agents and distributors. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys, games, and related products, with a significant portion of its earnings coming from its well-known brands. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales to retailers, e-commerce platforms, and licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels cars, and Fisher-Price toys, as well as royalties from licensed merchandise and collaborations with entertainment franchises. Additionally, Mattel invests in digital gaming and content creation to diversify its offerings and tap into new markets. Strategic partnerships with film studios and entertainment companies further enhance its revenue potential by creating synergies with media properties and character-based products.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel showcases stable financial metrics with consistent revenue and profit margins. The company manages a balanced capital structure with moderate leverage, while cash flow generation remains strong. Although there are areas for improvement, particularly in net profit margins, overall financial health is sound, supported by solid operational efficiency and prudent financial management.

Income Statement

Mattel's revenue shows slight fluctuations but has remained relatively stable recently. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at approximately 51.4%, indicating efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin for TTM is modest at about 9.9%, reflecting significant expenses or other financial obligations. EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate solid operational performance but have decreased slightly compared to previous years.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate, showing a balanced capital structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.79. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting that the company has a good proportion of its assets financed through shareholders' equity. Return on equity (ROE) has improved in TTM at 20.9%, indicating better profitability for equity investors.

Cash Flow

Mattel has demonstrated a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating effective cash generation relative to accounting profit. Free cash flow has grown slightly, reflecting careful capital expenditure management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting effective conversion of accounting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.34B	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.59B
Gross Profit	2.74B	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
EBITDA	959.42M	987.23M	818.37M	875.37M	956.38M	569.44M
Net Income	526.27M	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.25B	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	870.50M	1.39B	1.26B	761.24M	731.36M	762.18M
Total Debt	2.00B	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.93B	3.18B
Total Liabilities	4.08B	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	2.17B	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	605.50M	597.95M	709.49M	256.34M	334.11M	166.90M
Operating Cash Flow	742.66M	800.57M	869.79M	442.84M	485.46M	285.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-170.90M	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.22M	-105.10M	-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-431.73M	-449.35M	-226.57M	-260.64M	-402.07M	-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.51, below the 50-day MA of 17.69, and below the 200-day MA of 18.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GOLF	73 Outperform	$4.69B	20.98	0.03%	1.15%	3.83%	28.57%
JAKK	72 Outperform	$208.33M	5.53	14.11%	4.01%	1.31%	23.14%
MAT	71 Outperform	$5.46B	10.85	25.39%	―	-1.72%	70.21%
YETI	69 Neutral	$2.75B	16.14	22.07%	―	3.63%	-2.60%
HAS	51 Neutral	$10.56B	-18.56	-235.71%	3.72%	-6.42%	45.85%
FNKO	45 Neutral	$183.26M	-2.74	-36.01%	―	-9.07%	-38.09%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%