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Mattel (MAT)
NASDAQ:MAT

Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

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MA

Mattel

(NASDAQ:MAT)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$22.00
▲(7.74%Upside)
Mattel exhibits solid financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in diversifying its supply chain and expanding entertainment content. While technical indicators and valuation are moderately positive, global trade uncertainties and cautious guidance necessitate a careful outlook. The company's proactive strategies and robust cash flow management bolster its competitive position.
Positive Factors
Industry Growth
Management remains optimistic that the industry has returned to growth with the consumer consistent, while tariffs remain manageable.
Strategic Initiatives
Mattel highlighted its evolution from a toy manufacturer to an IP driven business and its efforts to monetize across both toys and non-toys.
Tariff Relief
China relief leads to a significantly lower impact than the previous cost pressure, and no inventory stock outs from tariff related disruption are expected.
Negative Factors
Pricing Concerns
Concerns exist about the company's ability to realize incremental pricing without significant elasticity impacts.
Retail Sourcing Shift
There are headwinds from key retailers shifting from a direct import model to domestic sourcing, which could lead to a modest shift in revenue from 2Q to 3Q.
Retail Strategy
Near term, MAT continues to expect sales to shift as retailers push the risk back to vendors on seasonal merchandise.

Mattel (MAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading global toy company that specializes in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a wide range of toy products. Founded in 1945 and headquartered in El Segundo, California, Mattel operates in the consumer goods sector, focusing on developing innovative toys and games. Its portfolio includes iconic brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, which are sold in over 150 countries worldwide. The company aims to inspire wonder in children and families through its diverse range of products and experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyMattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys and games, which are distributed through various channels, including mass retailers, specialty retailers, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. Key revenue streams include its core product lines such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, each contributing significantly to its overall earnings. The company also benefits from licensing agreements and collaborations with entertainment giants like Disney and Warner Bros., allowing it to produce toys based on popular TV shows and movies, thus broadening its market appeal. Additionally, Mattel leverages its intellectual property by extending its brands into digital and media content, including TV shows, movies, and online games, which further enhances brand visibility and drives consumer engagement.

Mattel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Billings by Category
Gross Billings by Category
Reveals the sales performance across different product categories, highlighting which segments are driving revenue and where the company might focus its growth strategies.
Chart InsightsMattel's strategic focus on diversifying its supply chain and reducing reliance on China is paying off, as evidenced by strong performances in dolls, vehicles, and action figures. The earnings call highlights robust growth in these categories, driven by popular franchises like Disney Princess and Hot Wheels. However, the Infant, Toddler, and Preschool segment faces challenges, declining due to planned exits in certain product lines. Despite global trade uncertainties and a cautious outlook, Mattel's strategic initiatives and entertainment content expansions position it well to navigate potential tariff impacts.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Mattel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 26.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment with strong financial performance and strategic advantages in supply chain and entertainment balanced against significant challenges from global trade uncertainties and cautious guidance. While there are positive developments in several categories and operational areas, the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and tariffs lead to a cautious outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Topline Growth and Gross Margin Expansion
Net sales grew 2% as reported and 4% in constant currency, and adjusted gross margin increased 130 basis points to 49.6%.
Strong Balance Sheet and Share Repurchase
Mattel ended the quarter with $1.24 billion in cash after repurchasing $160 million of shares.
Diversified Supply Chain
Less than 40% of Mattel's global production comes from China, compared to an industry average of 80%.
Entertainment Strategy Progress
Masters of the Universe movie is in production, new TV content for Hot Wheels and Barbie premiered on Netflix, and significant progress in digital games.
Category Performance
Dolls grew with Disney Princess and Wicked, vehicles driven by Hot Wheels, and games led by UNO achieving record first quarter.
Negative Updates
Global Trade Uncertainty
Tariffs and global trade uncertainty are impacting the toy industry, prompting Mattel to take mitigating actions.
Pause on Full Year 2025 Guidance
Due to the volatile macroeconomic environment and evolving U.S. tariff situation, Mattel paused its full year 2025 guidance.
Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Decline
Overall decline of 5% in Infant, Toddler, and Preschool category due to planned exits in Baby Gear and Power Wheels.
Retail Inventory Levels
Retail inventory is up high-single digits globally, reflecting the impact of later Easter holiday and movie product buildup.
Company Guidance
During Mattel, Inc.'s First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, key financial metrics were highlighted, indicating a strong start to the fiscal year. Net sales grew by 2% as reported and 4% in constant currency, while the adjusted gross margin increased by 130 basis points to 49.6%. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 7% to $57 million. Mattel maintained a robust balance sheet, boasting $1.24 billion in cash after repurchasing $160 million of shares. The company is strategically navigating global trade uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, with a focus on diversifying its supply chain and reducing reliance on China, which currently accounts for less than 40% of its global production. Despite the volatile macroeconomic environment, Mattel is confident in its mitigating actions designed to fully offset the $270 million potential incremental cost of tariffs predicted for 2025. With strong performances in product categories such as action figures, vehicles, dolls, and games, the company is poised to maintain its competitive edge while pausing full-year guidance due to evolving market conditions.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mattel demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and effective cost control, leading to healthy profit margins. The balance sheet is moderately strong with a balanced debt-to-equity ratio, though debt levels pose some risks. Cash flow management is robust, supporting operational stability and strategic investments.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Mattel's income statement reveals a stable revenue base with a slight positive growth trajectory. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 51.0% for TTM, indicative of strong cost management, while the Net Profit Margin is at 9.8%, showing a modest profitability level. Although there was a decrease in Net Income from the previous year, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.5% and 16.7%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.26, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The Return on Equity (ROE) is 24.9%, showcasing effective use of equity for generating profits. With an Equity Ratio of 34.3%, Mattel maintains a solid equity cushion, though the overall debt level remains relatively high, indicating potential risk in financial stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Mattel's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.1, reflecting efficient cash conversion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.5 highlights robust cash flow relative to accounting profits. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is slightly negative, but overall cash flow management remains strong, supporting ongoing operational investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.40B5.38B5.44B5.43B5.46B4.59B
Gross Profit2.75B2.73B2.58B2.48B2.63B2.25B
EBITDA901.07M909.24M766.53M819.33M956.38M569.44M
Net Income529.80M541.82M214.35M393.91M902.99M123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.21B6.54B6.44B6.18B6.39B5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.24B1.39B1.26B761.24M731.36M762.18M
Total Debt2.68B2.69B2.67B2.67B2.93B3.18B
Total Liabilities4.08B4.28B4.29B4.12B4.83B4.92B
Stockholders Equity2.13B2.26B2.15B2.06B1.57B610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow581.54M597.95M709.49M256.34M334.11M166.90M
Operating Cash Flow789.87M800.57M869.79M442.84M485.46M285.70M
Investing Cash Flow-191.91M-189.04M-142.42M-144.22M-105.10M-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow-479.94M-449.35M-226.57M-260.64M-402.07M-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.42
Price Trends
50DMA
18.55
Positive
100DMA
18.90
Positive
200DMA
18.88
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.42
Negative
RSI
65.26
Neutral
STOCH
93.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.36, above the 50-day MA of 18.55, and above the 200-day MA of 18.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Risk Analysis

Mattel disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mattel reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mattel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$4.47B21.1027.15%1.24%2.07%24.87%
MAMAT
77
Outperform
$6.59B13.1625.50%-0.73%88.76%
75
Outperform
$232.73M5.1221.81%4.79%2.89%41.09%
73
Outperform
$2.71B15.8025.01%8.38%3.69%
HAHAS
68
Neutral
$10.88B25.6139.16%3.61%-10.31%
64
Neutral
$327.57M-9.70%4.12%-7.28%-924.86%
62
Neutral
$16.90B11.24-7.48%2.95%1.60%-23.76%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAT
Mattel
20.42
4.19
25.82%
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings
76.00
15.05
24.69%
HAS
Hasbro
77.64
23.21
42.64%
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
20.88
2.99
16.71%
JOUT
Johnson Outdoors
32.04
-0.47
-1.45%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
32.75
-4.81
-12.81%

Mattel Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mattel Stockholders Approve Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 30, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2025, Mattel‘s stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation, extending exculpation from liability to certain officers as permitted by Delaware law. Additionally, all director nominees were elected, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and executive compensation was approved. However, a proposal to disclose a plan to reduce climate change contributions was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAT) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mattel stock, see the MAT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mattel Appoints Paul Ruh as New CFO
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 2, 2025, Mattel announced the appointment of Paul Ruh as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Ruh, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Kenvue and Johnson & Johnson, will succeed Anthony DiSilvestro, who will remain as an advisor until August 15, 2025. Ruh’s appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Mattel’s financial operations and support its multi-year strategy to unlock the full value of its intellectual property. Ruh’s expertise in guiding consumer brands to operational excellence is expected to contribute significantly to Mattel’s growth and shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 17, 2025