Mattel (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -1.72%
• EPS Growth: 70.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 322,900,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,844,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,896,938
• PEG Ratio: -4.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.98
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 43.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▲(9.13%Upside)

Mattel's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance with strong cash flow generation and a solid capital structure. The technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, presenting potential risks. Valuation metrics indicate the stock may be undervalued, offering a potential opportunity for investors. The positive impact of strategic corporate events and the mixed sentiment from the earnings call further influence the score. Strong international growth and operational excellence are significant positives, but challenges in key segments and trade dynamics pose risks.

Positive Factors

Sales Performance

Mattel's POS commentary, with growth in all regions, instills confidence in the company's topline outlook.

Strategic Initiatives

Mattel's evolution from a toy manufacturer to an IP-driven business broadens its revenue opportunities.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

The adjusted EPS forecast is approximately 5% below previous expectations, raising concerns about financial performance.

Sales Timing

Uncertainty looms over the timing of sales recovery, as some of the 2Q sales shortfall may extend into the next year.

Mattel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a leading global toy company that specializes in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a wide range of toy products. Founded in 1945 and headquartered in El Segundo, California, Mattel operates in the consumer goods sector, focusing on developing innovative toys and games. Its portfolio includes iconic brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, which are sold in over 150 countries worldwide. The company aims to inspire wonder in children and families through its diverse range of products and experiences.

How the Company Makes Money

Mattel generates revenue primarily through the sale of toys and games, which are distributed through various channels, including mass retailers, specialty retailers, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. Key revenue streams include its core product lines such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and American Girl, each contributing significantly to its overall earnings. The company also benefits from licensing agreements and collaborations with entertainment giants like Disney and Warner Bros., allowing it to produce toys based on popular TV shows and movies, thus broadening its market appeal. Additionally, Mattel leverages its intellectual property by extending its brands into digital and media content, including TV shows, movies, and online games, which further enhances brand visibility and drives consumer engagement.

Mattel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mattel demonstrates a solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and effective cost control, resulting in healthy profit margins. The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a balanced approach to leveraging, although the debt level poses potential risks. Strong cash generation is evident, supporting strategic investments and operational stability.

Income Statement

Mattel's income statement reveals a stable revenue base with a slight positive growth trajectory. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 51.0% for TTM, indicative of strong cost management, while the Net Profit Margin is at 9.8%, showing a modest profitability level. Although there was a decrease in Net Income from the previous year, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 14.5% and 16.7%, respectively, demonstrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.26, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The Return on Equity (ROE) is 24.9%, showcasing effective use of equity for generating profits. With an Equity Ratio of 34.3%, Mattel maintains a solid equity cushion, though the overall debt level remains relatively high, indicating potential risk in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Mattel's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.1, reflecting efficient cash conversion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.5 highlights robust cash flow relative to accounting profits. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is slightly negative, but overall cash flow management remains strong, supporting ongoing operational investments.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.38B	5.44B	5.43B	5.46B	4.59B
Gross Profit	2.73B	2.58B	2.48B	2.63B	2.24B
EBITDA	987.23M	818.37M	875.37M	956.38M	569.44M
Net Income	541.82M	214.35M	393.91M	902.99M	123.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.54B	6.44B	6.18B	6.39B	5.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.39B	1.26B	761.24M	731.36M	762.18M
Total Debt	2.69B	2.67B	2.67B	2.93B	3.18B
Total Liabilities	4.28B	4.29B	4.12B	4.83B	4.92B
Stockholders Equity	2.26B	2.15B	2.06B	1.57B	610.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	597.95M	709.49M	256.34M	334.11M	166.90M
Operating Cash Flow	800.57M	869.79M	442.84M	485.46M	285.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-189.04M	-142.42M	-144.22M	-105.10M	-132.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-449.35M	-226.57M	-260.64M	-402.07M	-5.84M

Mattel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.44, below the 50-day MA of 19.31, and below the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAT.

Mattel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GOLF	79 Outperform	$4.80B	22.68	27.15%	1.11%	2.07%	24.87%
YETI	75 Outperform	$3.20B	18.65	25.01%	―	8.38%	3.69%
MAT	68 Neutral	$5.70B	11.39	25.39%	―	-1.72%	70.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$17.27B	9.93	-8.46%	3.20%	1.63%	-26.06%
JAKK	62 Neutral	$196.95M	5.22	17.82%	2.83%	1.31%	23.14%
JOUT	62 Neutral	$340.35M	―	-9.70%	3.97%	-7.28%	-924.86%
HAS	60 Neutral	$10.69B	25.59	-80.03%	3.67%	-6.42%	45.85%

Mattel Corporate Events

Mattel Stockholders Approve Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 28, 2025, Mattel‘s stockholders approved an amendment to the company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation, extending exculpation from liability to certain officers as permitted by Delaware law. Additionally, all director nominees were elected, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and executive compensation was approved. However, a proposal to disclose a plan to reduce climate change contributions was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAT) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mattel stock, see the MAT Stock Forecast page.

Mattel Appoints Paul Ruh as New CFO

On May 2, 2025, Mattel announced the appointment of Paul Ruh as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Ruh, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles at Kenvue and Johnson & Johnson, will succeed Anthony DiSilvestro, who will remain as an advisor until August 15, 2025. Ruh’s appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Mattel’s financial operations and support its multi-year strategy to unlock the full value of its intellectual property. Ruh’s expertise in guiding consumer brands to operational excellence is expected to contribute significantly to Mattel’s growth and shareholder value.