tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Jakks Pacific (JAKK)
:JAKK

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
286 Followers

Top Page

JA

Jakks Pacific

(NASDAQ:JAKK)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(10.15%Upside)
Jakks Pacific's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call insights, offset by mixed technical indicators. The company's strategic initiatives and liquidity improvements from recent corporate events further bolster its long-term growth potential.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
JAKK reported sales, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP EPS all above consensus and projections.
Market Positioning
JAKK's unique market positioning in the $28B toys market, strong balance sheet, and attractive valuation are positive factors.
Retail Partnerships
JAKK's deep retail partnerships and tailored, IP-driven offerings give it strong shelf presence and defensible positioning across key global accounts.
Negative Factors
Financial Visibility
Tariffs and elevated direct selling expenses impacted financial performance and visibility for future earnings.
Sales Forecasts
Uncertainty caused by tariffs and a tough comparison for upcoming quarters led to lowered sales and earnings forecasts.
Tariffs
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing a conservative reduction in future estimates.

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJAKKS Pacific, Inc. develops, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys, consumables, and electronics and related products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes. The company offers action figures and accessories, such as licensed characters; toy vehicles and accessories; dolls and accessories, including small, large, fashion, and baby dolls based on licenses, as well as infant and pre-school products; private label products; and foot-to-floor ride-on products, inflatable environments, tents, and wagons. The company also provides role play, dress-up, pretend play, and novelty products for boys and girls based on brands and entertainment properties, as well as on its own proprietary brands; and indoor and outdoor kids' furniture, activity trays and tables, room décor, kiddie pools, and seasonal and outdoor products. In addition, it offers Halloween and everyday costumes for various ages based on licensed and proprietary non-licensed brands, and related Halloween accessories; outdoor activity toys; and junior sports toys, including hyper-charged balls, sport sets, and toy hoops. The company sells its products through in-house sales staff and independent sales representatives to toy and mass-market retail chain stores, department stores, office supply stores, drug and grocery store chains, club stores, value-oriented dollar stores, toy specialty stores, and wholesalers. JAKKS Pacific, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyJakks Pacific generates revenue through the design, manufacturing, and sale of toys and consumer products. The company's key revenue streams include sales of licensed merchandise, original product lines, and seasonal items. Jakks Pacific partners with major entertainment companies to produce toys and products based on popular franchises, which often results in significant sales boosts tied to the popularity of these brands. The company's distribution network spans various channels such as mass-market retailers, specialty stores, and online platforms, ensuring widespread availability of their products. Additionally, strategic licensing agreements and partnerships with entertainment giants like Disney, Warner Bros., and Nickelodeon contribute substantially to Jakks Pacific's earnings, as these collaborations allow the company to leverage well-known characters and stories to drive sales.

Jakks Pacific Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.64%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant sales growth and financial improvements, supported by strong international expansion efforts. However, the ongoing tariff issues pose challenges, particularly affecting high-priced items and potentially impacting consumer prices. The company's proactive approach to mitigating these challenges, including expanding international sales and maintaining a strong cash position, contributes to a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Sales Growth
Sales were up 26% in the quarter, with significant contributions from toys related to films like Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney Moana 2. The Dolls, Role Play/Dress-Up business grew by 37%, and Action Play & Collectibles increased by 30%.
International Growth
International sales were up 29%, with notable growth in Latin America and EMEA regions. The company is focusing on expanding its international market to offset U.S. tariff impacts.
Improved Financial Metrics
Gross margin was 34.4%, with adjusted EBITDA improving to $400,000 from a $17.2 million loss last year. The unrestricted cash balance increased to $59.2 million from $35.3 million last year.
Dividend Announcement
The Board approved a $0.25 per share dividend for the second quarter, indicating a strong financial position.
Negative Updates
Impact of Tariffs
Ongoing tariff issues pose a significant challenge, potentially increasing consumer prices and impacting the holiday season product availability and pricing.
Potential Reduced Demand for High-Priced Items
Concerns were raised about the ability to sell higher-priced items due to tariffs and economic uncertainty, potentially affecting revenue from these segments.
Company Guidance
During the JAKKS Pacific First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance with a 26% increase in sales, driven by successful toy releases from films like Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney Moana 2, and growth in evergreen product lines. The Dolls, Role Play/Dress-Up division shipped $55.5 million, a 37% rise, while Action Play & Collectibles reached $42.9 million, a 30% increase. North America sales were up 25%, and international sales rose by 29%. The gross margin stood at 34.4%, and adjusted EBITDA was $400,000, marking only the second positive first quarter EBITDA in 15 years. SG&A expenses increased by 1%, or less than $500,000. Adjusted EPS improved to a loss of $0.03 per share from a loss of $1.09 the previous year. The company declared a $0.25 per share dividend for the second quarter, payable on June 27, 2025. Despite tariff concerns, JAKKS is focusing on international growth, particularly in Latin America and Europe, and exploring alternative sourcing outside China to mitigate potential impacts. The company remains debt-free with an unrestricted cash balance of $59.2 million, positioning itself for long-term growth and strategic opportunities.

Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Jakks Pacific shows strong profitability and cash generation, with improved margins and a stable balance sheet. However, there are mild challenges in revenue growth and asset expansion that could impact long-term growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Jakks Pacific demonstrates a strong financial performance with a consistent revenue increase from the previous fiscal year to the TTM period. The gross profit margin has improved to 32.32% in the TTM compared to the previous annual figure, indicating enhanced cost efficiency. The net profit margin has also shown improvement, reaching 6.45% from 4.91% in the prior year, showcasing better profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting efficient operational management. However, the revenue growth rate from the previous year is slightly modest at 3.35%, suggesting room for improvement in top-line growth.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 in the TTM period, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity has improved to 19.63%, highlighting increased profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 57.77%, showing a strong equity base. However, the total assets have decreased slightly compared to the previous year, which could impact future growth potential.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates a positive trend with an increase in free cash flow to $39.02 million in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is 40.85%, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09, demonstrating efficient cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.85, suggesting some constraints in translating profits into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue714.22M691.04M711.56M796.19M621.12M515.87M
Gross Profit230.89M213.02M223.35M211.29M182.96M149.76M
EBITDA68.18M50.87M59.98M71.85M49.02M25.84M
Net Income46.04M33.92M38.41M91.41M-5.89M-14.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets276.91M444.87M398.95M399.30M357.05M329.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments39.47M69.94M72.35M85.30M44.52M87.95M
Total Debt204.01M56.52M24.05M87.76M114.03M183.17M
Total Liabilities286.75M204.04M202.84M246.82M299.15M316.43M
Stockholders Equity-10.96M240.33M195.41M151.48M56.57M11.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow39.02M27.70M57.50M75.71M-14.10M35.30M
Operating Cash Flow50.11M38.95M66.40M86.10M-5.88M43.57M
Investing Cash Flow-12.32M-12.89M-8.91M-10.39M-8.19M-8.19M
Financing Cash Flow-13.52M-26.92M-72.29M-31.02M-32.79M-10.95M

Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price20.88
Price Trends
50DMA
20.38
Positive
100DMA
22.69
Negative
200DMA
24.86
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
50.93
Neutral
STOCH
63.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.10, above the 50-day MA of 20.38, and below the 200-day MA of 24.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JAKK.

Jakks Pacific Risk Analysis

Jakks Pacific disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jakks Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MAMAT
77
Outperform
$6.59B13.1625.50%-0.73%88.76%
75
Outperform
$232.73M5.1221.81%4.79%2.89%41.09%
69
Neutral
$206.53M15.218.29%4.00%-5.40%9.57%
HAHAS
68
Neutral
$10.88B25.6139.16%3.61%-10.31%
64
Neutral
$327.57M-9.70%4.12%-7.28%-924.86%
62
Neutral
$16.90B11.24-7.48%2.95%1.60%-23.76%
52
Neutral
$266.99M-9.24%-3.30%85.53%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
20.88
2.99
16.71%
ESCA
Escalade
14.98
2.49
19.94%
HAS
Hasbro
77.64
23.21
42.64%
JOUT
Johnson Outdoors
32.04
-0.47
-1.45%
MAT
Mattel
20.42
4.19
25.82%
FNKO
Funko
4.86
-4.78
-49.59%

Jakks Pacific Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Jakks Pacific Secures New $70 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

On June 24, 2025, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. refinanced its existing $67.5 million asset-based revolving credit facility with a new $70 million cash flow-based first lien secured revolving credit facility from BMO Bank N.A., maturing in 2030. This refinancing provides JAKKS with improved covenants and increased liquidity, allowing the company to capitalize on growth opportunities and enhance shareholder value in a challenging global economic environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JAKK) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jakks Pacific stock, see the JAKK Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Jakks Pacific Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

Jakks Pacific held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually on June 20, 2025, where stockholders voted on three key matters. The election of three Class II Directors, the ratification of BDO USA as auditors, and an advisory vote on executive compensation were all approved, reflecting continued support for the company’s leadership and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (JAKK) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jakks Pacific stock, see the JAKK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 26, 2025