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Jakks Pacific (JAKK)
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Jakks Pacific (JAKK) AI Stock Analysis

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JAKK

Jakks Pacific

(NASDAQ:JAKK)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(7.04%Upside)
Jakks Pacific's overall stock score is primarily influenced by solid financial performance and attractive valuation. However, bearish technical analysis and challenges highlighted in the earnings call, particularly in the U.S. market, weigh down the score.
Positive Factors
Financial Health
JAKK exited with a significant increase in cash and no debt, indicating ample capital to fund operations and growth initiatives.
International Sales Performance
International, insulated from tariffs, was a bright spot, with net sales up 41% y/y accounting for 27% of total sales vs. 15% in the year-ago period.
Market Positioning
JAKK's unique market positioning in the $28B toys market, strong balance sheet, and attractive valuation are positive factors.
Negative Factors
Future Estimates
Uncertainty caused by tariffs and a tough comparison for upcoming quarters led to lowered sales and earnings forecasts.
Sales Decline
Revenue of $119.1M, down 19.9%, came in short of projections due to a 31% decline in U.S sales.
Tariff Impact
Uncertainty from tariffs negatively impacted U.S. sales and pose challenges for, at least, the remainder of 2025.

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJakks Pacific, Inc. is a leading designer, manufacturer, and marketer of toys and consumer products. The company operates primarily in the toy industry, offering a diverse range of products including action figures, dolls, role-play products, outdoor toys, seasonal products, and electronic toys. Jakks Pacific collaborates with globally recognized brands and entertainment franchises to create innovative and engaging products for children and families worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyJakks Pacific generates revenue through the design, manufacturing, and sale of toys and consumer products. The company's key revenue streams include sales of licensed merchandise, original product lines, and seasonal items. Jakks Pacific partners with major entertainment companies to produce toys and products based on popular franchises, which often results in significant sales boosts tied to the popularity of these brands. The company's distribution network spans various channels such as mass-market retailers, specialty stores, and online platforms, ensuring widespread availability of their products. Additionally, strategic licensing agreements and partnerships with entertainment giants like Disney, Warner Bros., and Nickelodeon contribute substantially to Jakks Pacific's earnings, as these collaborations allow the company to leverage well-known characters and stories to drive sales.

Jakks Pacific Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted strong international growth and strategic financial management, but these were overshadowed by significant challenges in the U.S. market due to high tariffs and increased operational costs. The company also faced declines in key business segments and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting a challenging business environment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong International Growth
International sales were up 33% in total, led by Europe which grew by 65% in the first half of the year.
Improved Cash Position
Cash, inclusive of restricted cash, at the end of the quarter was $43 million, up significantly from $18 million at this time last year.
Successful Product Launches
The Disney ily and Sonic the Hedgehog product lines performed well, contributing to strong sales in the top three U.S. accounts, which were up double digits in the first half of the year.
New Credit Facility
Refinanced credit facility with a new agreement with BMO Bank N.A., providing a 5-year $70 million cash flow revolver.
Negative Updates
Decline in U.S. Sales
Sales in the U.S. were down 10% compared to the prior year, with overall company sales down 3% in the first half.
High Tariffs and Increased Costs
The business faced a dramatic increase in the cost of doing business in the U.S., largely due to unpredictable tariff changes, resulting in a 20% decline in quarter sales year-over-year.
Costumes Business Challenges
Costumes business was down 12% in the quarter and 13% year-to-date, with large cancellations in Q2 when tariffs were 145%.
Reduced Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 million in the quarter was down from $12.3 million in the same quarter last year.
Company Guidance
In the JAKKS Pacific Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided insights into its financial performance and strategic adjustments amid challenging market conditions. Sales in the quarter were down 20% compared to the previous year, with U.S. sales declining by 10%, while international markets saw a 33% increase. The company highlighted the impact of tariffs on its operations, noting that the uncertainty around tariffs led to hesitancy among U.S. customers. Despite these challenges, JAKKS reported a strong gross margin of 32.8% for the quarter and an adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 million, although this was down from $12.3 million the previous year. The company's balance sheet showed cash reserves at $43 million, reflecting an increase from $18 million the previous year, following a refinancing of its credit facility. JAKKS emphasized its strategic focus on international growth, with sales in Europe up 65% in the first half of the year, and discussed its diversified manufacturing approach to mitigate risks. The company also announced a $0.25 per share dividend for the third quarter, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns amidst ongoing market uncertainties.

Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Jakks Pacific shows solid financial performance with improved profitability and cash generation. The company has managed to enhance its margins and maintain manageable debt levels. However, there are mild challenges in revenue growth and asset expansion.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Jakks Pacific demonstrates a strong financial performance with a consistent revenue increase from the previous fiscal year to the TTM period. The gross profit margin has improved to 32.32% in the TTM compared to the previous annual figure, indicating enhanced cost efficiency. The net profit margin has also shown improvement, reaching 6.45% from 4.91% in the prior year, showcasing better profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting efficient operational management. However, the revenue growth rate from the previous year is slightly modest at 3.35%, suggesting room for improvement in top-line growth.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.24 in the TTM period, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity has improved to 19.63%, highlighting increased profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 57.77%, showing a strong equity base. However, the total assets have decreased slightly compared to the previous year, which could impact future growth potential.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates a positive trend with an increase in free cash flow to $39.02 million in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is 40.85%, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09, demonstrating efficient cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.85, suggesting some constraints in translating profits into free cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue691.04M711.56M796.19M621.12M515.87M
Gross Profit213.02M223.35M211.29M182.96M149.76M
EBITDA50.87M59.98M71.85M49.02M25.84M
Net Income33.92M38.41M91.41M-5.89M-14.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets444.87M398.95M399.30M357.05M329.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments69.94M72.35M85.30M44.52M87.95M
Total Debt56.52M24.05M87.76M114.03M183.17M
Total Liabilities204.04M202.84M246.82M299.15M316.43M
Stockholders Equity240.33M195.41M151.48M56.57M11.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow27.70M57.50M75.71M-14.10M35.30M
Operating Cash Flow38.95M66.40M86.10M-5.88M43.57M
Investing Cash Flow-12.89M-8.91M-10.39M-8.19M-8.19M
Financing Cash Flow-26.92M-72.29M-31.02M-32.79M-10.95M

Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price17.75
Price Trends
50DMA
20.40
Negative
100DMA
20.97
Negative
200DMA
24.42
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.57
Positive
RSI
33.71
Neutral
STOCH
6.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.79, below the 50-day MA of 20.40, and below the 200-day MA of 24.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JAKK.

Jakks Pacific Risk Analysis

Jakks Pacific disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jakks Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$5.70B11.3925.39%-1.72%70.24%
67
Neutral
$175.37M12.928.29%4.72%-5.40%9.57%
62
Neutral
$17.27B9.93-8.46%3.20%1.63%-26.06%
62
Neutral
$196.95M5.2217.82%2.83%1.31%23.14%
62
Neutral
$340.35M-9.70%3.97%-7.28%-924.86%
60
Neutral
$10.69B25.59-80.03%3.67%-6.42%45.85%
47
Neutral
$233.48M-9.24%-3.30%85.53%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
17.75
-2.84
-13.79%
ESCA
Escalade
12.74
-1.55
-10.85%
HAS
Hasbro
76.30
14.56
23.58%
JOUT
Johnson Outdoors
33.41
-7.18
-17.69%
MAT
Mattel
17.41
-1.88
-9.75%
FNKO
Funko
3.96
-6.03
-60.36%

Jakks Pacific Corporate Events

Dividends
Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Jul 25, 2025

On July 24, 2025, Jakks Pacific announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share. This dividend will be payable on September 30, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 29, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (JAKK) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jakks Pacific stock, see the JAKK Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Jakks Pacific Secures New $70 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

On June 24, 2025, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. refinanced its existing $67.5 million asset-based revolving credit facility with a new $70 million cash flow-based first lien secured revolving credit facility from BMO Bank N.A., maturing in 2030. This refinancing provides JAKKS with improved covenants and increased liquidity, allowing the company to capitalize on growth opportunities and enhance shareholder value in a challenging global economic environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JAKK) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jakks Pacific stock, see the JAKK Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Jakks Pacific Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

Jakks Pacific held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually on June 20, 2025, where stockholders voted on three key matters. The election of three Class II Directors, the ratification of BDO USA as auditors, and an advisory vote on executive compensation were all approved, reflecting continued support for the company’s leadership and financial oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (JAKK) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jakks Pacific stock, see the JAKK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 29, 2025