Jakks Pacific (JAKK)
NASDAQ:JAKK
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Jakks Pacific
(NASDAQ:JAKK)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▼(-0.10% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
JAKK scores in the low-50s primarily due to weakened TTM financial performance (sharp revenue decline, margin compression, and slightly negative free cash flow) despite a relatively solid balance sheet. Technicals are modestly constructive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is offsetting (high dividend yield but elevated P/E). Earnings call commentary supports cautious optimism on margin focus and modest 2026 growth, but tariffs and top-line volatility remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A debt-free balance sheet with $54M cash gives durable financial flexibility: it supports dividend payments, funds selective product investments and 2027 initiatives, and provides a buffer against cyclical retail and tariff-driven shocks without needing external financing.
Negative Factors
Severe Revenue Decline
A near-term collapse in revenue materially reduces scale and fixed-cost absorption. Persistent top-line volatility undermines earnings sustainability, limits reinvestment capacity and makes recovery dependent on timing of entertainment licenses and retailer reorder patterns rather than internal operating fixes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A debt-free balance sheet with $54M cash gives durable financial flexibility: it supports dividend payments, funds selective product investments and 2027 initiatives, and provides a buffer against cyclical retail and tariff-driven shocks without needing external financing.
Read all positive factors
Jakks Pacific (JAKK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$229.12M
Dividend Yield5.97%
Average Volume (3M)145.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-16.49%
EPS Growth-81.62%
CountryUS
Employees680
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding11,444,411
10 Day Avg. Volume76,882
30 Day Avg. Volume145,794
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio-176.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.00Price Target Upside34.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$612.45M
Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. develops, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys, consumables, and electronics and related products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes. The company offers action figures and acce...
How the Company Makes Money
JAKKS Pacific makes money primarily by selling physical consumer products to retailers and distributors, generating revenue when it ships finished goods (toys and other play products) under wholesale arrangements. A significant portion of its toy ...
Jakks Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced picture: management highlighted meaningful operational and margin improvements (record-level gross margin, improved Q4 EBITDA, stronger international growth, disciplined SG&A, dividend continuity and a debt-free balance sheet) and positive product/brand momentum (Super Mario Galaxy, Sonic, Disney Darlings). However, material top-line pressure from tariff-driven demand disruption led to a significant full-year decline in Toys/Consumer Products sales (−19%), lower EPS and compressed EBITDA versus the prior year. Tariffs and sales volatility remain the primary near-term headwinds even as the company positions for low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion in 2026 and strategic launches in 2027.Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion to Multi-Year High
Full year gross margin improved to 32.4% (highest in over 15 years), up from 30.8% in prior year and 31.4% in 2023; Q4 gross margin dollars increased ~11% year-over-year driven by better costing and improved inventory management.
Negative Updates
Significant Full-Year Toys/Consumer Products Decline
Full-year Toys/Consumer Products sales declined 19% (with all three Toys/Consumer Products divisions down between 9% and 23%), and Costume business down 10% for the full year, driven largely by tariff-induced order pattern disruption and higher consumer prices.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gross Margin Expansion to Multi-Year High
Full year gross margin improved to 32.4% (highest in over 15 years), up from 30.8% in prior year and 31.4% in 2023; Q4 gross margin dollars increased ~11% year-over-year driven by better costing and improved inventory management.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s forward-looking frame is modest and margin-focused: they expect low- to mid-single-digit top-line growth in 2026 while prioritizing gross‑margin expansion and SG&A containment as they prepare for major 2027 initiatives, and the Board approved a Q1 dividend of $0.25/share (record Feb. 27, payable Mar. 30) following a $1.00/share return in 2025. They pointed to 2025 as the baseline — full‑year gross margin 32.4% (highest in >15 years), adjusted EBITDA margin 6.2% (down from 8.6%), operating margin 2.5% (vs. 5.7%), trailing‑12‑month EBITDA $35.4M (vs. $59.3M), Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss $3.8M (vs. $10.2M), Q4 adjusted EPS loss $0.18 (vs. $0.67), and full‑year adjusted EPS $1.62 (vs. $3.79) — and stressed balance‑sheet and working‑capital positions ($54M cash, inventory just under $60M with U.S. inventory down 18% YoY, ~11.5M diluted shares, >$8M cash flow from operations, and $11.2M of dividends funded in 2025). They also reiterated tariff headwinds (roughly $12M in U.S. tariffs paid by the company and an estimated ~$50M in tariffs borne by U.S. FOB customers in 2025) and said they will seek to grow revenue modestly while improving margins via better costing, inventory management and selective investments.Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 570.67M | 691.04M | 711.56M | 796.19M | 621.12M |
| Gross Profit | 185.08M | 213.02M | 223.35M | 211.29M | 182.96M |
| EBITDA | 25.47M | 50.87M | 59.98M | 71.84M | 18.69M |
| Net Income | 9.87M | 33.92M | 38.41M | 91.41M | -6.01M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 442.20M | 444.87M | 398.95M | 405.34M | 357.05M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.07M | 69.94M | 72.55M | 85.30M | 44.52M |
| Total Debt | 92.94M | 56.52M | 24.05M | 87.76M | 114.03M |
| Total Liabilities | 193.09M | 204.04M | 202.84M | 258.64M | 299.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 249.10M | 240.33M | 195.41M | 145.70M | 56.57M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.07M | 27.70M | 57.50M | 75.71M | -14.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.49M | 38.95M | 66.40M | 86.10M | -5.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.34M | -12.89M | -8.91M | -10.39M | -8.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.90M | -26.92M | -72.29M | -31.02M | -32.79M |
Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis
Positive
20.02
Price Trends
19.47
Positive
17.98
Positive
18.10
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Positive
50.88
Neutral
71.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.31, above the 50-day MA of 19.47, and above the 200-day MA of 18.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JAKK.
Jakks Pacific Risk Analysis
Jakks Pacific disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jakks Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $12.82B | -36.02 | -54.74% | 3.44% | 0.87% | 14.02% | |
58 Neutral | $4.42B | 15.88 | 18.08% | ― | -2.36% | -16.06% | |
52 Neutral | $229.12M | -8.87 | 4.05% | 5.97% | -16.49% | -81.62% | |
49 Neutral | $167.16M | -252.62 | -35.34% | ― | -11.32% | -165.08% | |
48 Neutral | $186.07M | -14.88 | 754.17% | ― | 60.60% | 66.17% | |
46 Neutral | $21.11M | -43.11 | -5.92% | ― | 39.47% | 31.39% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
20.02
-3.29
-14.10%
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Jakks Pacific Corporate Events
Dividends
Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Jakks Pacific’s board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share, reinforcing its practice of returning capital to shareholders and signaling confidence in its ongoing cash generation and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.