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Jakks Pacific (JAKK)
NASDAQ:JAKK
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Jakks Pacific (JAKK) AI Stock Analysis

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JAKK

Jakks Pacific

(NASDAQ:JAKK)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(18.37% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (delevered balance sheet and strong TTM free cash flow) and a constructive price uptrend, reinforced by a positive earnings call emphasizing improving sales and profitability. Offsetting these strengths are the prior TTM revenue/margin compression and ongoing category headwinds (outdoor seasonal), which keep the overall rating in the upper-middle range rather than higher.
Positive Factors
Delevered balance sheet and low leverage
A materially reduced leverage profile (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.19) provides durable financial flexibility to fund working capital, strategic investments, and dividends without heavy refinancing risk. Low debt increases resilience through seasonal cycles and supports multi-year restructuring or product initiatives.
Negative Factors
TTM revenue decline and compressed margins
A material downshift in revenue (TTM -13.7%) and slim EBIT/net margins (~2.8%) reduce earnings power and financial buffers. Persistently lower margins limit reinvestment capacity, raise vulnerability to cost or demand shocks, and make multi-year growth financing and margin recovery more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Delevered balance sheet and low leverage
A materially reduced leverage profile (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.19) provides durable financial flexibility to fund working capital, strategic investments, and dividends without heavy refinancing risk. Low debt increases resilience through seasonal cycles and supports multi-year restructuring or product initiatives.
Read all positive factors

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the conception, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of a diverse array of playthings, electronic products, and various consumer goods. The company operates through two primary divis...
How the Company Makes Money
JAKKS Pacific makes money primarily by selling toys and related consumer products to retailers and other wholesale customers, with revenue recognized from product shipments/sales into these channels. A significant driver of demand is its portfolio...

Jakks Pacific Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial trajectory: strong top-line growth (Q2 +17%, YTD +6%), regional momentum (North America and international growth, record international first-half shipments), improved adjusted EBITDA and EPS, tariff refunds improving cash and earnings, inventory reduction, and active product pipelines and geographic expansion. Challenges remain in the outdoor seasonal category (structural decline), a modest operating loss year-to-date, and certain initiatives (anime/VTuber) that will not contribute in 2026 and require multi-year execution. Overall the positive metrics and strategic progress materially outweigh the manageable and addressable headwinds.
Positive Updates
Quarterly and Year-to-Date Revenue Growth
Net sales of $139.2M in Q2, a 17% increase year-over-year; year-to-date sales $245.9M, up 6% vs prior year and the company's best first half since 2023.
Negative Updates
Outdoor Seasonal Business Decline
Outdoor seasonal category was a notable drag: down 12% in the quarter and down 17% year-to-date to $11.1M. Management characterizes this as a structural headwind driven by retailers reallocating space away from bulky items and changing delivery economics.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Quarterly and Year-to-Date Revenue Growth
Net sales of $139.2M in Q2, a 17% increase year-over-year; year-to-date sales $245.9M, up 6% vs prior year and the company's best first half since 2023.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said they remain on track to deliver a strong 2026 and potentially exceed initial plans, reiterating that first‑half results (Q2 sales $139.2M, +17% YoY; YTD sales $245.9M, +6%) and improving profitability support that view — Q2 gross margin 32.3% (vs 32.8% LY), gross margin dollars up ~3% in H1 to just over $80M, Q2 operating loss $0.14M (H1 operating loss $5.7M vs $6.5M LY), Q2 adjusted EBITDA $5.4M (vs $2.3M LY) and 12‑month trailing adjusted EBITDA $37.8M — and adjusted EPS was $0.25 in Q2 and $0.09 for H1 (versus $0.03 Q2 LY, breakeven YTD LY). They noted the impact of $6.8M in tariff refunds (recognized as non‑operating income, excluded from non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA/adjusted EPS), stronger cash of $60.6M at quarter end (vs $43.1M LY; $47.1M as of 7/17), inventory $58.3M (vs $71.8M LY), FOB shipments >75%, and a continued outlook for growth into 2027–28 (including two top‑tier theatrical releases: Sonic in Q1 and Frozen in Q4 2027), while confirming no material anime‑related revenue expected in 2026.

Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet is a clear positive (low leverage with ~0.19 debt-to-equity after a major de-risking) and TTM cash flow is strong (operating cash flow ~$50.6M; free cash flow ~$35.4M). The main drag is the income statement downshift, with TTM revenue down ~13.7% and margins compressed to ~2.8% (EBIT and net), implying reduced earnings power and higher cyclicality risk.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue584.24M570.67M691.04M711.56M796.19M621.12M
Gross Profit187.30M185.08M213.02M223.35M211.29M182.96M
EBITDA35.45M25.47M50.87M59.98M71.84M18.69M
Net Income16.16M9.87M33.92M38.41M91.41M-6.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets448.49M442.20M444.87M398.95M405.34M357.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments60.65M52.20M69.94M72.55M85.30M44.52M
Total Debt46.62M53.36M56.52M24.05M87.76M114.03M
Total Liabilities200.62M193.09M204.04M202.84M258.64M299.15M
Stockholders Equity247.88M249.10M240.33M195.41M145.70M56.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow35.38M-1.07M27.70M57.50M75.71M-14.10M
Operating Cash Flow50.57M8.49M38.95M66.40M86.10M-5.88M
Investing Cash Flow-16.86M-12.34M-12.89M-8.91M-10.39M-8.19M
Financing Cash Flow-14.85M-17.11M-26.92M-72.29M-31.02M-32.79M

Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price24.50
Price Trends
50DMA
23.93
Positive
100DMA
22.79
Positive
200DMA
20.27
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.43
Positive
RSI
53.51
Neutral
STOCH
50.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.60, above the 50-day MA of 23.93, and above the 200-day MA of 20.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JAKK.

Jakks Pacific Risk Analysis

Jakks Pacific disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jakks Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$291.50M17.696.50%4.08%-14.67%-59.03%
65
Neutral
$4.17B10.8019.88%2.90%-12.28%
64
Neutral
$13.41B16.88138.39%3.15%16.87%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
54
Neutral
$341.57M-169.96-1.09%-3.92%96.88%
52
Neutral
$141.37M142.861.46%-18.17%
44
Neutral
$17.85M-2.32-8.77%-19.38%-33.51%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
25.29
8.64
51.93%
HAS
Hasbro
93.99
16.54
21.36%
MAT
Mattel
14.50
-3.16
-17.89%
FNKO
Funko
6.19
3.51
130.97%
DOGZ
Dogness (International)
1.16
-13.02
-91.82%
PLBY
Playboy
1.18
-0.48
-28.92%

Jakks Pacific Corporate Events

Dividends
Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Dividend, Emphasizing Shareholder Returns
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Jakks Pacific’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share, underscoring the company’s practice of returning capital to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on August 28, 2026 to ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Jakks Pacific Shareholders Reject Executive Pay at Annual Meeting
Negative
Jun 12, 2026
Jakks Pacific held its annual meeting of stockholders virtually on June 5, 2026, following a notice mailed on or about April 22, 2026 to stockholders of record as of April 8, 2026. Shareholders elected Class III director nominee Lori MacPherson wi...
Dividends
Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Shareholder Confidence
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Jakks Pacific’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share, reinforcing its practice of returning capital to shareholders through regular distributions. The dividend is scheduled to be ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2026