Jakks Pacific (JAKK) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

270 Followers

JAKK Dividends

Top Page

Jakks Pacific

(NASDAQ:JAKK)

67Neutral

JAKK's overall score reflects a mixed financial performance with strengths in valuation and earnings call results. The stock's low P/E ratio and dividend yield make it appealing for value investors, while the earnings call shows positive growth initiatives. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to current downward momentum and potential tariff-related challenges impacting future sales.

Positive Factors

Dividends

The company initiated a quarterly dividend, which could attract a new class of investors to the stock.

Financial Performance

JAKKS Pacific reported net sales and adjusted EBITDA that exceeded consensus projections and estimates.

Market Positioning

Analyst remains bullish on JAKK due to its unique market positioning, strong balance sheet, attractive valuation, and new dividend.

Negative Factors

Expenses

Tariffs and elevated direct selling expenses impacted financial performance and visibility for future earnings.

Market Visibility

Uncertainty caused by tariffs and a tough comparison for upcoming quarters led to lowered sales and earnings forecasts.

Tariffs

Uncertainty caused by tariffs and a tough comparison for upcoming quarters led to lowered sales and earnings forecasts.

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$215.01M

Dividend Yield1.28%

Average Volume (3M)135.12K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7

Beta (1Y)1.10

Revenue Growth2.89%

EPS Growth41.09%

CountryUS

Employees680

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength66

IndustryLeisure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.08

Shares Outstanding11,146,230

10 Day Avg. Volume148,209

30 Day Avg. Volume135,117

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.11

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.39

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$33.00

Price Target Upside71.07% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJakks Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) is a leading designer, manufacturer, and marketer of toys and consumer products. The company operates in the toy and consumer product sectors, offering a diverse range of products that include action figures, dolls, role-play toys, outdoor toys, and seasonal products. Jakks Pacific collaborates with well-known brands and licenses to produce themed merchandise that appeals to a wide demographic, from children to collectors.

How the Company Makes MoneyJakks Pacific generates revenue primarily through the sale of its toy and consumer products to retailers, distributors, and directly to consumers. The company leverages strategic licensing agreements with major entertainment companies and franchises, enabling them to produce products based on popular characters and themes. This includes partnerships with Disney, Warner Bros., Nintendo, and other significant entities, allowing Jakks Pacific to offer products that have strong market appeal. Additionally, the company benefits from seasonal sales spikes, such as during the holiday season, and through collaborations with retail giants for exclusive product lines. Jakks Pacific's revenue streams are diversified across various product categories and geographical markets, enhancing its ability to capture a broad segment of the consumer market.

Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jakks Pacific exhibits a mixed financial performance. While there have been improvements in financial stability and reduced debt, recent declines in margins and cash flow generation pose challenges. Profitability remains, but operational efficiency needs enhancement.

Income Statement

Positive

Jakks Pacific has shown fluctuating revenue with a decline from 2022 to 2023 and a further drop to 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 2022 to 2023 but saw a slight decrease in 2024. The net profit margin is positive, indicating profitability, but declined over the past year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have weakened, reflecting challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly over the years, indicating reduced financial leverage. Stockholders' equity has increased, enhancing the equity ratio and showing stronger financial stability. Return on equity remains positive, but with a slight decrease, suggesting a need for improved profitability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Free cash flow has been volatile, showing strong growth in 2023 but falling to zero in 2024. The lack of operating cash flow in the latest period raises concerns about sustainability. Cash flow management needs attention to support ongoing operations and potential growth.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
691.04M	711.56M	796.19M	621.12M	515.87M
	Gross Profit
213.02M	223.35M	211.29M	182.96M	149.76M
	EBIT
39.68M	59.11M	60.97M	29.01M	12.91M
	EBITDA
50.87M	59.98M	71.85M	49.02M	25.84M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
33.92M	38.41M	91.41M	-5.89M	-14.14M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
69.94M	72.35M	85.30M	44.52M	87.95M
	Total Assets
444.87M	398.95M	399.30M	357.05M	329.37M
	Total Debt
56.52M	24.05M	87.76M	114.03M	183.17M
	Net Debt
-13.41M	-48.30M	2.46M	69.51M	95.22M
	Total Liabilities
204.04M	202.84M	246.82M	299.15M	316.43M
	Stockholders Equity
240.33M	195.41M	151.48M	56.57M	11.73M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
27.70M	57.50M	75.71M	-14.10M	35.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
38.95M	66.40M	86.10M	-5.88M	43.57M
	Investing Cash Flow
-12.89M	-8.91M	-10.39M	-8.19M	-8.19M
	Financing Cash Flow
-26.92M	-72.29M	-31.02M	-32.79M	-10.95M

Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price19.29

Price Trends

50DMA

23.98

Negative

100DMA

26.27

Negative

200DMA

25.37

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.36

Negative

RSI

40.16

Neutral

STOCH

68.68

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.89, below the 50-day MA of 23.98, and below the 200-day MA of 25.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JAKK.

Jakks Pacific Risk Analysis

Jakks Pacific disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jakks Pacific reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESCA	71 Outperform	$205.50M	16.26	7.79%	4.14%	-4.57%	31.28%
MAT	70 Outperform	$5.13B	9.97	24.55%	―	-1.13%	163.15%
JAKK	67 Neutral	$215.01M	4.73	15.57%	1.28%	2.89%	41.09%
HAS	64 Neutral	$7.28B	18.93	38.67%	3.41%	-10.32%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.58B	11.55	3.14%	4.05%	2.58%	-21.37%
JOUT	55 Neutral	$233.41M	―	-9.70%	5.60%	-9.98%	-348.96%
FNKO	46 Neutral	$218.69M	―	-6.33%	―	-4.22%	90.89%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JAKK

Jakks Pacific

19.29

0.42

2.23%

ESCA

Escalade

15.18

2.52

19.91%

HAS

Hasbro

61.90

2.70

4.56%

JOUT

Johnson Outdoors

22.83

-17.97

-44.04%

MAT

Mattel

15.89

-2.54

-13.78%

FNKO

Funko

4.01

-2.41

-37.54%

Jakks Pacific Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -0.87%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted significant sales growth and financial improvements, supported by strong international expansion efforts. However, the ongoing tariff issues pose challenges, particularly affecting high-priced items and potentially impacting consumer prices. The company's proactive approach to mitigating these challenges, including expanding international sales and maintaining a strong cash position, contributes to a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Quarterly Sales Growth

Sales were up 26% in the quarter, with significant contributions from toys related to films like Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney Moana 2. The Dolls, Role Play/Dress-Up business grew by 37%, and Action Play & Collectibles increased by 30%.

International Growth

International sales were up 29%, with notable growth in Latin America and EMEA regions. The company is focusing on expanding its international market to offset U.S. tariff impacts.

Improved Financial Metrics

Gross margin was 34.4%, with adjusted EBITDA improving to $400,000 from a $17.2 million loss last year. The unrestricted cash balance increased to $59.2 million from $35.3 million last year.

Dividend Announcement

The Board approved a $0.25 per share dividend for the second quarter, indicating a strong financial position.

Negative Updates

Impact of Tariffs

Ongoing tariff issues pose a significant challenge, potentially increasing consumer prices and impacting the holiday season product availability and pricing.

Potential Reduced Demand for High-Priced Items

Concerns were raised about the ability to sell higher-priced items due to tariffs and economic uncertainty, potentially affecting revenue from these segments.

Company Guidance

During the JAKKS Pacific First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance with a 26% increase in sales, driven by successful toy releases from films like Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney Moana 2, and growth in evergreen product lines. The Dolls, Role Play/Dress-Up division shipped $55.5 million, a 37% rise, while Action Play & Collectibles reached $42.9 million, a 30% increase. North America sales were up 25%, and international sales rose by 29%. The gross margin stood at 34.4%, and adjusted EBITDA was $400,000, marking only the second positive first quarter EBITDA in 15 years. SG&A expenses increased by 1%, or less than $500,000. Adjusted EPS improved to a loss of $0.03 per share from a loss of $1.09 the previous year. The company declared a $0.25 per share dividend for the second quarter, payable on June 27, 2025. Despite tariff concerns, JAKKS is focusing on international growth, particularly in Latin America and Europe, and exploring alternative sourcing outside China to mitigate potential impacts. The company remains debt-free with an unrestricted cash balance of $59.2 million, positioning itself for long-term growth and strategic opportunities.

Jakks Pacific Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Jakks Pacific Restructures Board Ahead of 2025 Meeting

Neutral

Mar 28, 2025

Jakks Pacific announced a restructuring of its Board of Directors on March 25, 2025, reducing the number of directors from seven to six, and adjusting the composition of Class III directors to one. The company’s 2025 Annual Meeting is scheduled for June 20, 2025, with shareholder notifications expected by May 6, 2025, and a nomination deadline of April 25, 2025.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures

Jakks Pacific Announces 2024 Financial Results and Dividend

Positive

Feb 20, 2025

On February 20, 2025, Jakks Pacific announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, revealing mixed performance with a 3% increase in net sales for the fourth quarter but a 3% decline for the full year. The company reported improved gross margins and a reduction in operating losses compared to the previous year, and also declared the initiation of a quarterly cash dividend program, reflecting confidence in its financial stability and future growth prospects. Despite facing challenges in the costumes sector, Jakks Pacific saw international growth and maintained strong cash reserves, ending the year debt-free.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.