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Jakks Pacific
(NASDAQ:JAKK)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(18.37% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (delevered balance sheet and strong TTM free cash flow) and a constructive price uptrend, reinforced by a positive earnings call emphasizing improving sales and profitability. Offsetting these strengths are the prior TTM revenue/margin compression and ongoing category headwinds (outdoor seasonal), which keep the overall rating in the upper-middle range rather than higher.
Positive Factors
Delevered balance sheet and low leverage
A materially reduced leverage profile (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.19) provides durable financial flexibility to fund working capital, strategic investments, and dividends without heavy refinancing risk. Low debt increases resilience through seasonal cycles and supports multi-year restructuring or product initiatives.
Negative Factors
TTM revenue decline and compressed margins
A material downshift in revenue (TTM -13.7%) and slim EBIT/net margins (~2.8%) reduce earnings power and financial buffers. Persistently lower margins limit reinvestment capacity, raise vulnerability to cost or demand shocks, and make multi-year growth financing and margin recovery more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Delevered balance sheet and low leverage
A materially reduced leverage profile (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.19) provides durable financial flexibility to fund working capital, strategic investments, and dividends without heavy refinancing risk. Low debt increases resilience through seasonal cycles and supports multi-year restructuring or product initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Jakks Pacific (JAKK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$291.50M
Dividend Yield3.95%
Average Volume (3M)74.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-14.67%
EPS Growth-59.03%
CountryUS
Employees652
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.44
Shares Outstanding11,445,012
10 Day Avg. Volume107,537
30 Day Avg. Volume74,076
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.33
P/FCF Ratio-176.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.00Price Target Upside10.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$599.71M
Jakks Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the conception, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of a diverse array of playthings, electronic products, and various consumer goods. The company operates through two primary divis...
How the Company Makes Money
JAKKS Pacific makes money primarily by selling toys and related consumer products to retailers and other wholesale customers, with revenue recognized from product shipments/sales into these channels. A significant driver of demand is its portfolio...
Jakks Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial trajectory: strong top-line growth (Q2 +17%, YTD +6%), regional momentum (North America and international growth, record international first-half shipments), improved adjusted EBITDA and EPS, tariff refunds improving cash and earnings, inventory reduction, and active product pipelines and geographic expansion. Challenges remain in the outdoor seasonal category (structural decline), a modest operating loss year-to-date, and certain initiatives (anime/VTuber) that will not contribute in 2026 and require multi-year execution. Overall the positive metrics and strategic progress materially outweigh the manageable and addressable headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Year-to-Date Revenue Growth
Net sales of $139.2M in Q2, a 17% increase year-over-year; year-to-date sales $245.9M, up 6% vs prior year and the company's best first half since 2023.
Negative Updates
Outdoor Seasonal Business Decline
Outdoor seasonal category was a notable drag: down 12% in the quarter and down 17% year-to-date to $11.1M. Management characterizes this as a structural headwind driven by retailers reallocating space away from bulky items and changing delivery economics.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Year-to-Date Revenue Growth
Net sales of $139.2M in Q2, a 17% increase year-over-year; year-to-date sales $245.9M, up 6% vs prior year and the company's best first half since 2023.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said they remain on track to deliver a strong 2026 and potentially exceed initial plans, reiterating that first‑half results (Q2 sales $139.2M, +17% YoY; YTD sales $245.9M, +6%) and improving profitability support that view — Q2 gross margin 32.3% (vs 32.8% LY), gross margin dollars up ~3% in H1 to just over $80M, Q2 operating loss $0.14M (H1 operating loss $5.7M vs $6.5M LY), Q2 adjusted EBITDA $5.4M (vs $2.3M LY) and 12‑month trailing adjusted EBITDA $37.8M — and adjusted EPS was $0.25 in Q2 and $0.09 for H1 (versus $0.03 Q2 LY, breakeven YTD LY). They noted the impact of $6.8M in tariff refunds (recognized as non‑operating income, excluded from non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA/adjusted EPS), stronger cash of $60.6M at quarter end (vs $43.1M LY; $47.1M as of 7/17), inventory $58.3M (vs $71.8M LY), FOB shipments >75%, and a continued outlook for growth into 2027–28 (including two top‑tier theatrical releases: Sonic in Q1 and Frozen in Q4 2027), while confirming no material anime‑related revenue expected in 2026.Jakks Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 584.24M | 570.67M | 691.04M | 711.56M | 796.19M | 621.12M |
| Gross Profit | 187.30M | 185.08M | 213.02M | 223.35M | 211.29M | 182.96M |
| EBITDA | 35.45M | 25.47M | 50.87M | 59.98M | 71.84M | 18.69M |
| Net Income | 16.16M | 9.87M | 33.92M | 38.41M | 91.41M | -6.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 448.49M | 442.20M | 444.87M | 398.95M | 405.34M | 357.05M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.65M | 52.20M | 69.94M | 72.55M | 85.30M | 44.52M |
| Total Debt | 46.62M | 53.36M | 56.52M | 24.05M | 87.76M | 114.03M |
| Total Liabilities | 200.62M | 193.09M | 204.04M | 202.84M | 258.64M | 299.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 247.88M | 249.10M | 240.33M | 195.41M | 145.70M | 56.57M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.38M | -1.07M | 27.70M | 57.50M | 75.71M | -14.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 50.57M | 8.49M | 38.95M | 66.40M | 86.10M | -5.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.86M | -12.34M | -12.89M | -8.91M | -10.39M | -8.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.85M | -17.11M | -26.92M | -72.29M | -31.02M | -32.79M |
Jakks Pacific Technical Analysis
Positive
24.50
Price Trends
23.93
Positive
22.79
Positive
20.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Positive
53.51
Neutral
50.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JAKK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.60, above the 50-day MA of 23.93, and above the 200-day MA of 20.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JAKK.
Jakks Pacific Risk Analysis
Jakks Pacific disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jakks Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jakks Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $291.50M | 17.69 | 6.50% | 4.08% | -14.67% | -59.03% | |
65 Neutral | $4.17B | 10.80 | 19.88% | ― | 2.90% | -12.28% | |
64 Neutral | $13.41B | 16.88 | 138.39% | 3.15% | 16.87% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $341.57M | -169.96 | -1.09% | ― | -3.92% | 96.88% | |
52 Neutral | $141.37M | 142.86 | 1.46% | ― | -18.17% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $17.85M | -2.32 | -8.77% | ― | -19.38% | -33.51% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JAKK
Jakks Pacific
25.29
8.64
51.93%
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DOGZ
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1.16
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PLBY
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1.18
-0.48
-28.92%
Jakks Pacific Corporate Events
Dividends
Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Dividend, Emphasizing Shareholder Returns
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Jakks Pacific’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share, underscoring the company’s practice of returning capital to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on August 28, 2026 to ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Jakks Pacific Shareholders Reject Executive Pay at Annual Meeting
Negative
Jun 12, 2026
Jakks Pacific held its annual meeting of stockholders virtually on June 5, 2026, following a notice mailed on or about April 22, 2026 to stockholders of record as of April 8, 2026. Shareholders elected Class III director nominee Lori MacPherson wi...
Dividends
Jakks Pacific Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Shareholder Confidence
Positive
May 1, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Jakks Pacific’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share, reinforcing its practice of returning capital to shareholders through regular distributions. The dividend is scheduled to be ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.