Marriott International (MAR) AI Stock Analysis

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Marriott International

(NASDAQ:MAR)

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:

$271.00

▲(5.05% Upside)

Marriott International's overall stock score reflects a combination of strong financial performance in revenue growth and profitability, tempered by a highly leveraged balance sheet. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, while valuation metrics suggest the stock is relatively expensive. The earnings call provides a positive outlook with strong international growth, but challenges in key markets remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Marriott reported 1Q25 EBITDA of $1,217M, ahead of expectations and above company outlook largely on RevPAR/core fees coming in ahead of expectation.

Market Performance

Luxury and international markets continue to perform well, which is a relative positive for Marriott given its portfolio composition.

Valuation

Marriott's relative valuation looks attractive at 15.1x 2026 EV/EBITDA compared to Hilton at 18.6x.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

2025 guidance was lowered with the brunt of softness in Q3, a recurring theme from lodging earnings.

Market Trends

US industry June RevPAR worsened by 1.3%, and international by approximately 6%.

Revenue Guidance

Near-term bookings are softer-than-expected with higher attrition rates and 2025 group pace decelerated to 3% from 6%.

Marriott International (MAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$70.56B

Dividend Yield0.99%

Average Volume (3M)1.40M

Price to Earnings (P/E)29.3

Beta (1Y)1.15

Revenue Growth5.12%

EPS Growth-11.48%

CountryUS

Employees418,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength72

IndustryTravel Lodging

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.65

Shares Outstanding271,457,820

10 Day Avg. Volume1,815,479

30 Day Avg. Volume1,397,353

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.83

Price to Book (P/B)-26.50

Price to Sales (P/S)3.16

P/FCF Ratio39.66

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.54

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.62

Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.23

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$287.71

Price Target Upside11.53% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering16

Marriott International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMarriott International, Inc. is a leading global lodging company based in Bethesda, Maryland. With a portfolio of more than 7,000 properties across 131 countries and territories, Marriott operates and franchises hotels and licenses vacation ownership resorts under various brands, including Marriott Hotels, The Ritz-Carlton, Sheraton, and Westin. The company caters to a diverse clientele by offering a wide range of accommodations, from luxury to budget-friendly options, along with services such as event planning and hospitality management.

How the Company Makes MoneyMarriott International generates revenue primarily through three key streams: 1) Hotel management and franchise fees, which are paid by hotel owners and franchisees for the use of Marriott's brand and systems. This includes initial fees upon opening a property and ongoing fees based on a percentage of revenue. 2) Owned, leased, and joint-venture properties, where Marriott operates hotels directly, earning revenue through room sales and ancillary services such as food and beverage. 3) Vacation ownership sales, where the company sells timeshare interests and earns revenue from management fees associated with these properties. Additionally, Marriott benefits from strategic partnerships with airlines, travel agencies, and loyalty programs, such as Marriott Bonvoy, which drive customer loyalty and repeat business.

Marriott International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room

Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room
Combines occupancy and average daily rate to show overall revenue efficiency per room, offering insight into the company’s operational effectiveness and market demand.

Chart InsightsMarriott's Average Worldwide Revenue Per Available Room shows a strong recovery post-pandemic, peaking in mid-2024. The latest earnings call highlights robust international growth, especially in APAC and EMEA, offsetting challenges in the U.S. and Canada where RevPAR is flat. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Marriott's pipeline expansion and luxury segment growth are promising, though softness in group bookings and a decline in Greater China remain concerns. The company anticipates RevPAR growth at the lower end of estimates, with strategic focus on conversions and cost management to bolster future performance.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Marriott International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -0.45%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Marriott's earnings call highlighted strong international growth and expansion in their pipeline and luxury segment. However, challenges in the U.S. and Canada, softness in group bookings, and declines in Greater China and government demand presented significant hurdles. The highlights and lowlights provide a balanced view of Marriott's current performance and future outlook.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Pipeline Growth

Marriott's pipeline reached a record level with net rooms growing 4.7% since the end of the 2024 second quarter. Deal signings rose 35% with every region signing more projects than in the same quarter last year.

Strong RevPAR in International Markets

International RevPAR rose over 5%, led by growth in both APAC and EMEA. RevPAR in APAC increased by 9%, with Japan and Australia experiencing double-digit growth. EMEA's RevPAR rose 7%.

Increased Loyalty Program Membership

Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program grew to nearly 248 million members at the end of June, with member penetration reaching a record 69% of rooms globally.

Increase in Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $1.42 billion, reflecting robust financial performance and cost management.

Expansion in Luxury Segment

Marriott's global luxury portfolio expanded, with plans to open 27 additional luxury properties this year. The luxury segment outperformed with RevPAR up 4%.

Negative Updates

Decline in U.S. and Canada RevPAR

RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada was flat year-over-year and declined around 1.5% for select service and extended stay segments.

Weakness in Greater China Market

RevPAR in Greater China declined 0.5% year-over-year due to a weaker macro environment, impacting business and group results.

Softening Group Bookings

Group RevPAR was softer than anticipated, with fewer near-term bookings and elevated attrition rates, impacting the U.S. and Canada region.

Decline in Government Demand

Government demand in the U.S. and Canada was down 16% year-over-year, impacting RevPAR particularly in the select service segment.

Company Guidance

During the Marriott International Q2 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance indicating strong financial results despite macroeconomic uncertainty. The company's pipeline saw a record level, with net rooms growing by 4.7% since Q2 2024. Global RevPAR increased by 1.5%, with international RevPAR rising over 5%, led by APAC and EMEA regions. However, Greater China saw a slight decline of 0.5%. In the U.S. and Canada, RevPAR was flat year-over-year, although luxury RevPAR increased by 4%. The company expects full-year RevPAR growth to be at the lower end of the previous estimate, between 1.5% and 2.5%. Deal signings in Q2 rose by 35% year-over-year, contributing to a pipeline of over 590,000 rooms, with 40% under construction. The company continues to focus on conversions, which represented nearly 30% of room signings and openings in the year's first half. The guidance also highlighted anticipated G&A expense reductions of 8% to 10% in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA projected to increase by 7% to 8%.

Marriott International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marriott International shows strong revenue growth and profitability improvements, but faces challenges with a highly leveraged balance sheet and negative equity position. The company demonstrates resilience in cash flow generation, crucial for sustaining operations and managing debt. Overall, while the income statement reflects positive trends, the balance sheet poses potential risks that need to be addressed for long-term stability.

Income Statement

Positive

Marriott International has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.20%, indicating robust recovery and expansion. The gross profit margin is relatively low at 2.70% for TTM, but the net profit margin has improved to 11.88%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous years, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a negative equity position, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of -7.34 for TTM. This indicates potential financial risk and instability. The negative return on equity further highlights challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is also negative, reflecting a concerning capital structure.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 7.12% in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.63, suggesting moderate cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.79 indicates that a significant portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow, which is a positive sign.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.69B	25.10B	23.71B	20.77B	13.86B	10.57B
Gross Profit	5.47B	5.10B	5.12B	4.56B	2.80B	1.46B
EBITDA	4.50B	4.34B	4.38B	3.92B	1.90B	457.00M
Net Income	2.47B	2.38B	3.08B	2.36B	1.10B	-267.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	27.34B	26.18B	25.67B	24.82B	25.55B	24.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	671.00M	396.00M	338.00M	507.00M	1.39B	877.00M
Total Debt	16.54B	15.24B	12.76B	11.10B	11.24B	11.20B
Total Liabilities	30.31B	29.17B	26.36B	24.25B	24.14B	24.27B
Stockholders Equity	-2.96B	-2.99B	-682.00M	568.00M	1.41B	430.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.97B	2.00B	2.72B	2.03B	994.00M	1.50B
Operating Cash Flow	2.49B	2.75B	3.17B	2.36B	1.18B	1.64B
Investing Cash Flow	-795.00M	-734.00M	-465.00M	-297.00M	-187.00M	35.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.37B	-1.96B	-2.86B	-2.96B	-463.00M	-1.03B

Marriott International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price257.97

Price Trends

50DMA

268.46

Negative

100DMA

255.88

Positive

200DMA

266.34

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-3.35

Positive

RSI

37.45

Neutral

STOCH

24.14

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 257.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 268.06, below the 50-day MA of 268.46, and below the 200-day MA of 266.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAR.

Marriott International Risk Analysis

Marriott International disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marriott International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Marriott International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WH	74 Outperform	$6.41B	19.69	56.16%	1.88%	3.65%	38.50%
HTHT	69 Neutral	$9.69B	23.03	28.90%	4.86%	5.20%	-11.08%
HLT	67 Neutral	$61.40B	40.10	-41.19%	0.23%	6.26%	38.11%
H	64 Neutral	$12.97B	32.18	11.66%	0.44%	0.74%	-54.42%
IHG	63 Neutral	$18.19B	24.98	-27.16%	1.43%	8.82%	23.24%
Sector *	60 Neutral	kr10.57B	16.89	10.31%	3.11%	-0.58%	-19.73%
MAR	59 Neutral	$70.56B	29.32	-144.82%	0.99%	5.12%	-11.48%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MAR

Marriott International

257.97

43.67

20.38%

HTHT

H World Group

32.09

4.49

16.27%

Hyatt Hotels

135.01

0.12

0.09%

IHG

Intercontinental Hotels Group

117.40

23.96

25.64%

HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings

261.05

56.39

27.55%

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts

83.99

12.27

17.11%

Marriott International Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Marriott Announces CFO Transition with New Appointments

Neutral

Jul 14, 2025

On July 14, 2025, Marriott International announced the retirement of Leeny Oberg, its Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development, effective March 31, 2026. Jennifer C. Mason, a long-time Marriott executive, will succeed Oberg as CFO, while Shawn Hill will become Chief Development Officer. This leadership transition is expected to support Marriott’s continued growth and strategic direction, with both Mason and Hill bringing extensive experience to their new roles.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAR) stock is a Buy with a $283.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott International stock, see the MAR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Marriott International Elects Directors at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 13, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Marriott International held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where 13 director nominees were elected, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, stockholders approved the advisory resolution on the compensation of Marriott’s named executive officers, signaling continued support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAR) stock is a Buy with a $283.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott International stock, see the MAR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2025