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Hilton Worldwide Holdings
(NYSE:HLT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$373.00
▲(9.37% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash flow and solid operating performance, partially offset by elevated leverage/negative equity. High valuation (P/E ~45) and only neutral technical momentum limit upside near term, while earnings-call guidance and refinancing/liquidity actions provide supportive but not decisive positives.
Positive Factors
Asset-light franchising and management model
Hilton’s asset-light franchise and management model drives recurring, low-capex fee streams tied to owner revenues. Scale, distribution and the Hilton Honors loyalty program amplify network effects, supporting durable fee growth, margin resilience and capital efficiency over multiple cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and negative equity position
Meaningful debt and a negative equity cushion limit financial flexibility and amplify refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. In a downside demand scenario, leverage constrains free-cash-flow optionality for investments or buybacks and increases vulnerability to tighter credit markets over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light franchising and management model
Hilton’s asset-light franchise and management model drives recurring, low-capex fee streams tied to owner revenues. Scale, distribution and the Hilton Honors loyalty program amplify network effects, supporting durable fee growth, margin resilience and capital efficiency over multiple cycles.
Read all positive factors
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into Hilton’s business lines (owned, leased, managed, franchised, and other), showing how much comes from fee-based, asset-light operations versus capital-intensive hotel ownership. A higher share of management and franchise fees points to steadier, higher-margin cash flow; more revenue from owned or leased hotels increases earnings volatility and capital requirements.
Breaks revenue into Hilton’s business lines (owned, leased, managed, franchised, and other), showing how much comes from fee-based, asset-light operations versus capital-intensive hotel ownership. A higher share of management and franchise fees points to steadier, higher-margin cash flow; more revenue from owned or leased hotels increases earnings volatility and capital requirements.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$75.84B
Dividend Yield0.21%
Average Volume (3M)2.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.4
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth8.72%
EPS Growth3.05%
CountryUS
Employees182,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Lodging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.61
Shares Outstanding227,648,380
10 Day Avg. Volume3,049,253
30 Day Avg. Volume2,158,282
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-144.09
Price to Book (P/B)-12.58
Price to Sales (P/S)5.63
P/FCF Ratio34.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$353.21Price Target Upside3.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)9.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.05B
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensin...
How the Company Makes Money
Hilton primarily makes money through an “asset-light” model that emphasizes franchising and management rather than owning large numbers of hotel properties.
1) Franchise and licensing fees (core revenue stream)
- Hilton grants hotel owners the ri...
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial positives: mid-single-digit RevPAR growth in the quarter, a 13% increase in adjusted EBITDA, accelerating net unit growth with a record pipeline, meaningful shareholder returns, and active AI/technology initiatives. These positives were tempered by geopolitical headwinds from the Middle East conflict (expected to materially affect Q2 and the region's full-year RevPAR) and continued softness in China. Management framed guidance conservatively to reflect those risks but expressed confidence in sustained demand momentum in the U.S. and across many international markets.Positive Updates
System-wide RevPAR Growth
System-wide RevPAR increased 3.6% year-over-year in Q1 2026, with sequential monthly improvement in the U.S. and broad growth across chain scales, brands and segments.
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict Impact
Middle East & Africa RevPAR declined 1.7% in Q1. Company expects Middle East RevPAR to be down mid- to high-teens for full-year 2026 with Q2 most impacted. The Middle East represents ~3% of the business but could reduce System-wide RevPAR by roughly 0.5–1.0 percentage point for the full year and ~1.5 points in Q2 under certain scenarios.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
System-wide RevPAR Growth
System-wide RevPAR increased 3.6% year-over-year in Q1 2026, with sequential monthly improvement in the U.S. and broad growth across chain scales, brands and segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hilton reiterated second-quarter guidance of System-wide RevPAR growth of 2%–3% (including Middle East impacts), adjusted EBITDA of $1.015–$1.035 billion and diluted EPS (adjusted) of $2.18–$2.24, and maintained full‑year outlook of System‑wide RevPAR up 2%–3%, adjusted EBITDA $4.02–$4.06 billion and diluted EPS (adjusted) $8.79–$8.91 (guidance ranges exclude future share repurchases). Management expects full‑year net unit growth of 6%–7% and to return roughly $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 (having returned >$860 million in Q1), while Q1 results included System‑wide RevPAR +3.6%, adjusted EBITDA $901 million (+13% YoY), diluted adjusted EPS $2.01, management & franchise fees +10.4%, a 527,000‑room pipeline and a Q1 cash dividend of $0.15/share ($35 million) with a $0.15/share Q2 dividend authorized; regional notes include U.S. RevPAR at the high end or above system guidance, Americas ex‑U.S. and Europe expected low‑ to mid‑single‑digit growth, APAC low single digits (China flat), and Middle East & Africa RevPAR expected down mid‑ to high‑teens (Middle East ~3% of the business, estimated ~0.5–1.0 ppt full‑year drag and ~1.5 ppt Q2 impact).Hilton Worldwide Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.28B | 12.04B | 11.17B | 10.23B | 8.77B | 5.79B |
| Gross Profit | 5.44B | 4.95B | 3.06B | 2.93B | 2.70B | 1.66B |
| EBITDA | 3.00B | 2.87B | 2.50B | 2.30B | 2.31B | 1.15B |
| Net Income | 1.54B | 1.46B | 1.53B | 1.14B | 1.25B | 410.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.39B | 16.77B | 16.52B | 15.40B | 15.51B | 15.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 619.00M | 970.00M | 1.30B | 800.00M | 1.21B | 1.43B |
| Total Debt | 13.06B | 15.67B | 12.00B | 10.12B | 9.69B | 9.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.25B | 22.12B | 20.21B | 17.75B | 16.61B | 16.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | -5.91B | -5.39B | -3.73B | -2.36B | -1.10B | -821.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.16B | 1.94B | 1.81B | 1.70B | 1.58B | 30.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.29B | 2.13B | 2.01B | 1.95B | 1.68B | 109.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -179.00M | -190.00M | -446.00M | -305.00M | -123.00M | -57.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.30B | -2.35B | -1.04B | -2.04B | -1.76B | -1.79B |
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
341.03
Price Trends
330.53
Positive
321.03
Positive
300.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.87
Positive
46.08
Neutral
42.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 341.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 340.73, above the 50-day MA of 330.53, and above the 200-day MA of 300.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HLT.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Risk Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilton Worldwide Holdings reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $24.08B | 39.71 | -23.50% | 1.21% | 5.59% | 26.44% | |
66 Neutral | $12.85B | 4.84 | 41.76% | 3.60% | 9.63% | 59.04% | |
66 Neutral | $100.14B | 39.95 | -74.11% | 0.84% | 4.69% | 8.46% | |
64 Neutral | $75.84B | 50.40 | -29.63% | 0.21% | 8.72% | 3.05% | |
62 Neutral | $17.65B | -533.30 | -1.00% | 0.36% | 7.74% | -104.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $5.78B | 30.62 | 37.33% | 2.13% | 1.41% | -40.51% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings
333.13
61.16
22.49%
HTHT
H World Group
41.86
9.81
30.61%
H
Hyatt Hotels
187.40
40.82
27.85%
IHG
Intercontinental Hotels Group
163.46
44.05
36.89%
MAR
Marriott International
371.16
94.42
34.12%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
77.16
-7.10
-8.43%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilton Shareholders Extend Incentive Plan and Support Governance
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its annual meeting on May 14, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. shareholders approved an amended and restated 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan, authorizing an additional 846,000 shares for issuance and extending the plan’s term by ten years...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hilton Issues $1 Billion Senior Notes for Refinancing
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc., an indirect subsidiary of Hilton Worldwide Holdings, issued and sold $1 billion of 5.500% senior unsecured notes due September 15, 2031, at par, to qualified institutional buyers and certain...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Hilton Announces Executive Leadership Changes and Brand Focus
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. announced that Christopher W. Silcock, President of Global Brands Commercial Services, plans to retire in the first quarter of 2027. In preparation, the company will implement leadership changes late...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.