Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $71.72B
• Dividend Yield: 0.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 6.68%
• EPS Growth: 48.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 182,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Lodging
• EPS (TTM): 2.08
• Shares Outstanding: 229,291,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,153,671
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,980,296
• PEG Ratio: -144.24
• Price to Book (P/B): -12.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.50
• 1Y Price Target: $332.40
• Price Target Upside: 6.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.06B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $344.00 ▲(9.98% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

Score reflects strong cash-flow generation and positive earnings-call fundamentals (pipeline, unit growth, and capital returns), tempered by balance-sheet leverage/negative equity concerns and a high valuation multiple. Technicals are supportive but appear overbought, adding near-term risk.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Hilton's multi-year operating cash flow recovery (roughly $1.7B–$2.1B) and robust free cash flow that has generally covered net income (~0.87–1.0) create durable internal funding for development, maintenance, dividends, and buybacks without relying solely on new equity.

Large development pipeline and consistent unit growth

A record 520k+ room pipeline and repeated 6%–7% net unit growth reflect sustainable, scalable growth driven by conversions and openings. This structurally expands fee and royalty streams and increases brand reach with limited incremental capital intensity for Hilton.

Fee-driven, capital-light business mix and brand expansion

Rising franchise/management fees and conversion-led openings increase recurring, higher-margin revenue while keeping capital requirements low. Continued brand launches and lifestyle/luxury expansion support long-term fee growth and resilience across demand cycles.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and negative equity

Sustained high debt and multi-year negative equity weaken financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenant risk. Higher leverage increases interest expense sensitivity, constrains ability to invest opportunistically, and can pressure EPS if cash generation moderates.

Regional demand weakness (U.S. business transient & China)

Persistent weakness in U.S. business-transient and constrained China group demand are structural risks to corporate and group segments. These pockets can mute RevPAR recovery, slow fee growth from owner revenues, and limit margin expansion in key geographies over coming quarters.

Margin inconsistency and reporting anomalies

Notable compression and inconsistent margin metrics alongside balance-sheet data anomalies reduce confidence in trend stability. Variability in reported EBITDA margin and odd 2025 balance-sheet items complicate forecasting and suggest potential one-offs or classification issues affecting durability of earnings.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilton generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by operating its owned and leased properties, as well as through franchising and management agreements. The company's owned and leased hotels contribute a significant portion of its revenue through room sales, food and beverage services, and ancillary offerings such as meeting and event space. Additionally, Hilton benefits from franchise fees charged to hotel owners who operate under its brand, which include initial franchise fees, ongoing royalties based on room revenue, and other service fees. Management contracts also contribute to revenue as Hilton manages hotels on behalf of owners for a fee. Key partnerships with travel agencies, online travel booking platforms, and loyalty programs like Hilton Honors further enhance customer engagement and drive bookings, contributing to the company’s overall earnings.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating recovery and durable cash generation (operating cash flow roughly $1.7B–$2.1B in 2022–2025; solid free cash flow), but balance-sheet risk is material due to elevated leverage and negative equity in 2021–2024, plus some inconsistency in the latest reported margin/balance-sheet figures.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2021–2024 ($5.8B to $11.2B) with continued growth in 2025, showing a strong post-downturn recovery. Profitability is healthy overall with net margins in the low-to-mid teens in 2022–2024, though 2025 shows some compression (net margin ~12.1%) and a notably low reported EBITDA margin (~3.3%) versus prior years, which raises consistency/quality concerns in the latest period. The business has clearly moved past the 2020 loss period, but the 2025 margin mix suggests incremental volatility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks elevated in the annual periods: total debt remains high (about $9.7B–$12.0B from 2021–2024) while stockholders’ equity is negative each year from 2021–2024, which weakens balance-sheet flexibility and makes equity-based leverage measures unfavorable. Total assets are stable (~$15–$16.8B), but the capital structure is the key constraint. The 2025 snapshot shows zero debt and zero equity on $381M of assets, which appears inconsistent with prior years and limits confidence in the latest balance-sheet datapoint.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and consistent after 2021: operating cash flow rose from $0.1B (2021) to roughly $1.7B–$2.1B (2022–2025), and free cash flow is similarly robust (about $1.6B–$2.1B in 2022–2025). Free cash flow has generally covered net income well (roughly ~0.87–1.0 from 2022–2025), supporting earnings quality. The main drawback is that 2025 free cash flow declined (~-8.9% growth) after prior gains, suggesting moderation rather than continued acceleration.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.04B	11.17B	10.23B	8.77B	5.79B
Gross Profit	4.95B	3.06B	2.93B	2.70B	1.66B
EBITDA	2.87B	2.50B	2.30B	2.31B	1.15B
Net Income	1.46B	1.53B	1.14B	1.25B	410.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.77B	16.52B	15.40B	15.51B	15.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	970.00M	1.30B	800.00M	1.21B	1.43B
Total Debt	15.67B	12.00B	10.12B	9.69B	9.78B
Total Liabilities	22.12B	20.21B	17.75B	16.61B	16.26B
Stockholders Equity	-5.39B	-3.73B	-2.36B	-1.10B	-821.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.03B	1.81B	1.70B	1.58B	30.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.13B	2.01B	1.95B	1.68B	109.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-190.00M	-446.00M	-305.00M	-123.00M	-57.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.35B	-1.04B	-2.04B	-1.76B	-1.79B

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 312.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 312.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 310.82, above the 50-day MA of 300.12, and above the 200-day MA of 273.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLT.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HTHT	74 Outperform	$16.29B	31.41	32.28%	3.60%	5.70%	9.53%
IHG	71 Outperform	$20.88B	29.03	―	1.21%	8.89%	23.20%
HLT	69 Neutral	$71.72B	50.93	―	0.21%	6.68%	48.03%
H	68 Neutral	$15.50B	-297.68	-1.51%	0.36%	2.61%	-106.74%
MAR	68 Neutral	$90.93B	36.04	―	0.84%	4.68%	-1.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WH	61 Neutral	$6.34B	33.24	34.53%	2.13%	3.38%	38.04%

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Corporate Events

Hilton Issues $1 Billion in Senior Notes

On December 10, 2025, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc., a subsidiary of Hilton Worldwide Holdings, issued $1 billion in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2034. The proceeds were used to redeem $500 million of its 5.750% Senior Notes due 2028 and for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially improve its market positioning by reducing interest expenses and extending debt maturity.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLT) stock is a Buy with a $297.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilton Worldwide Holdings stock, see the HLT Stock Forecast page.

Hilton Worldwide Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Sale

On December 1, 2025, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc., entered into a purchase agreement for the issuance and sale of $1 billion in Senior Notes due 2034. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem the company’s outstanding 5.750% Senior Notes due 2028 and for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move aims to manage Hilton’s debt profile and support its ongoing corporate activities, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLT) stock is a Buy with a $296.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilton Worldwide Holdings stock, see the HLT Stock Forecast page.