Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $67.09B
• Dividend Yield: 0.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 46.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 6.68%
• EPS Growth: 48.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 182,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Lodging
• EPS (TTM): 2.08
• Shares Outstanding: 229,291,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,022,547
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,048,234
• PEG Ratio: -144.24
• Price to Book (P/B): -12.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.47
• 1Y Price Target: $332.20
• Price Target Upside: 13.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.07B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $312.00 ▲(6.64% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and solid operating performance, partially offset by balance-sheet leverage/negative equity and some inconsistency in latest reported figures. The latest earnings call supports the outlook via unit growth, pipeline strength, and large shareholder returns, but technical momentum is currently weak and valuation (high P/E, low yield) provides limited support.

Positive Factors

Asset-light business model

Hilton’s asset-light franchise and management model scales fee income with systemwide room demand while requiring limited capital expenditure. This structurally supports higher margins, predictable recurring fee streams, and faster unit growth versus asset-heavy peers, enhancing long-term capital efficiency.

Consistent cash generation

Sustained operating cash flow and free cash flow across 2022–2025 demonstrate durable cash conversion that funds development support, dividends, and buybacks. Reliable FCF coverage of net income improves financial resilience, allowing reinvestment and shareholder returns through economic cycles.

Large development pipeline and unit growth

A record 520k+ room pipeline, sustained 6%–7% unit growth and high conversion rates create a multi-year runway for fee revenue expansion. Brand launches and lifestyle/luxury growth further diversify offerings and deepen distribution, supporting durable, low-capex scaling of franchise and management fees.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and weak equity

Persistently high debt and negative equity in recent years constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. Elevated leverage raises interest sensitivity and limits the company’s capacity to absorb shocks or accelerate non-fee investments without increasing financing costs or diluting stakeholders.

Regional demand weakness (U.S. and China)

Prolonged softness in U.S. business transient and constrained China group demand pose durable headwinds to RevPAR-sensitive fees and incentive management income. Regional demand weakness can reduce fee growth, compress property-level profitability, and blunt conversion economics over multiple quarters.

Leverage-driven EPS pressure and margin inconsistency

Rising interest costs as leverage normalizes toward ~3.25x can erode EPS growth even if EBITDA rises, limiting shareholder returns and capital allocation optionality. Combined with 2025 margin volatility and reporting inconsistencies, this raises medium-term earnings predictability and capital deployment risk.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilton primarily makes money through an “asset-light” model that monetizes its brands, operating systems, and distribution capabilities rather than relying mainly on owning real estate. Key revenue streams include: (1) Franchise fees: Hilton licenses its brands (e.g., Hilton, DoubleTree, Hampton, Embassy Suites, Waldorf Astoria, and others) to third-party hotel owners. In exchange, it earns ongoing fees that typically include a royalty based on a percentage of a hotel’s rooms revenue (or a similar performance metric) plus additional fees for marketing, reservation/booking channels, and loyalty-program-related services. This stream scales with systemwide room demand and room rates at franchised properties. (2) Management fees: For hotels owned by third parties but operated by Hilton under long-term management contracts, Hilton earns base management fees (generally tied to hotel revenue) and often incentive management fees (typically tied to profitability or performance benchmarks). Management fees are influenced by property-level operating performance, including occupancy, average daily rate, and cost control. (3) Owned and leased hotel revenues: Hilton generates hotel operating revenue from a smaller set of properties it owns or leases. These revenues include room revenue and, where applicable, food and beverage and other on-property services. Because these hotels are operated directly (or under lease arrangements), this stream is more exposed to property-level costs and local operating dynamics. (4) Timeshare and related: Through its timeshare business, Hilton earns revenue from vacation ownership product sales, financing (where applicable), and fees associated with operating/servicing the timeshare system. (5) Other and ancillary: Hilton also earns ancillary revenues tied to its platform—such as fees linked to its reservation and distribution systems and loyalty program participation—embedded within its franchise and management economics. Significant factors that contribute to Hilton’s earnings include the scale and strength of its brand portfolio, the breadth of its global pipeline (new hotel openings and conversions), the reach of Hilton Honors in driving repeat demand, and partnerships with owners, developers, OTAs/travel distributors, and corporate travel and co-branded marketing relationships that help drive bookings and fee-generating systemwide sales.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating recovery and durable cash generation (operating cash flow and free cash flow around $1.7B–$2.1B in 2022–2025) support earnings quality, but elevated leverage/negative equity in 2021–2024 and inconsistencies in the latest reported margin and balance-sheet figures raise balance-sheet and data-confidence risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily from 2021–2024 ($5.8B to $11.2B) with continued growth in 2025, showing a strong post-downturn recovery. Profitability is healthy overall with net margins in the low-to-mid teens in 2022–2024, though 2025 shows some compression (net margin ~12.1%) and a notably low reported EBITDA margin (~3.3%) versus prior years, which raises consistency/quality concerns in the latest period. The business has clearly moved past the 2020 loss period, but the 2025 margin mix suggests incremental volatility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks elevated in the annual periods: total debt remains high (about $9.7B–$12.0B from 2021–2024) while stockholders’ equity is negative each year from 2021–2024, which weakens balance-sheet flexibility and makes equity-based leverage measures unfavorable. Total assets are stable (~$15–$16.8B), but the capital structure is the key constraint. The 2025 snapshot shows zero debt and zero equity on $381M of assets, which appears inconsistent with prior years and limits confidence in the latest balance-sheet datapoint.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and consistent after 2021: operating cash flow rose from $0.1B (2021) to roughly $1.7B–$2.1B (2022–2025), and free cash flow is similarly robust (about $1.6B–$2.1B in 2022–2025). Free cash flow has generally covered net income well (roughly ~0.87–1.0 from 2022–2025), supporting earnings quality. The main drawback is that 2025 free cash flow declined (~-8.9% growth) after prior gains, suggesting moderation rather than continued acceleration.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.04B	11.17B	10.23B	8.77B	5.79B
Gross Profit	4.95B	3.06B	2.93B	2.70B	1.66B
EBITDA	2.87B	2.50B	2.30B	2.31B	1.15B
Net Income	1.46B	1.53B	1.14B	1.25B	410.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.77B	16.52B	15.40B	15.51B	15.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	970.00M	1.30B	800.00M	1.21B	1.43B
Total Debt	15.67B	12.00B	10.12B	9.69B	9.78B
Total Liabilities	22.12B	20.21B	17.75B	16.61B	16.26B
Stockholders Equity	-5.39B	-3.73B	-2.36B	-1.10B	-821.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.03B	1.81B	1.70B	1.58B	30.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.13B	2.01B	1.95B	1.68B	109.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-190.00M	-446.00M	-305.00M	-123.00M	-57.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.35B	-1.04B	-2.04B	-1.76B	-1.79B

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 292.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 292.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 302.77, below the 50-day MA of 304.46, and above the 200-day MA of 278.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLT.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IHG	71 Outperform	$19.29B	28.95	-23.50%	1.21%	8.89%	23.20%
H	68 Neutral	$13.43B	-294.43	-1.50%	0.36%	2.61%	-106.74%
MAR	68 Neutral	$84.73B	46.80	-79.90%	0.84%	4.68%	-1.10%
HLT	62 Neutral	$67.09B	46.53	-30.22%	0.21%	6.68%	48.03%
HTHT	62 Neutral	$15.51B	20.45	42.78%	3.60%	5.70%	9.53%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WH	61 Neutral	$5.73B	-23.83	35.09%	2.13%	3.38%	38.04%

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Corporate Events

Hilton Amends Credit Facility, Extends Maturity and Liquidity

On March 18, 2026, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc., an indirect subsidiary of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., amended its existing Credit Agreement to extend the maturity of its senior secured revolving credit facility to the earlier of five years from the amendment date or 91 days before the maturity of its existing term loans. The amendment also revises interest rate options to base rate or SOFR-based borrowings with a margin that steps up as the first lien net leverage ratio increases, while most other terms of the facility remain substantially unchanged.

As part of the same amendment, Hilton doubled the letter of credit sublimit under the revolving credit facility from $250 million to $500 million and raised the same day swingline borrowing sublimit from $100 million to $200 million. These changes enhance the company’s liquidity and financing flexibility, potentially supporting ongoing operating needs and capital allocation strategies without materially altering the broader structure of its credit arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLT) stock is a Buy with a $303.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilton Worldwide Holdings stock, see the HLT Stock Forecast page.