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Intercontinental Hotels Group
(NYSE:IHG)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$171.00
â–²(9.49% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance and cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings-call outlook (system growth, margin expansion, and sizable buybacks). Offsetting these positives are significant balance-sheet leverage/negative equity risk, mixed near-term technical momentum, and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with only a modest dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Asset-light franchise and management model
IHG's asset-light franchising and management mix generates recurring, low-capex fee income tied to room revenue and services. This scalable model reduces capital intensity, preserves cash flow, and supports margin durability and higher returns on invested capital across cycles.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
Persistent negative equity and elevated debt reduce financial flexibility and increase refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity. This structural capital‑structure weakness limits the firm's ability to invest, absorb shocks, or expand capital returns without materially raising balance‑sheet risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light franchise and management model
IHG's asset-light franchising and management mix generates recurring, low-capex fee income tied to room revenue and services. This scalable model reduces capital intensity, preserves cash flow, and supports margin durability and higher returns on invested capital across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Intercontinental Hotels Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, highlighting where the company generates the most income and potential areas for growth or risk based on regional economic trends.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, highlighting where the company generates the most income and potential areas for growth or risk based on regional economic trends.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIntercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.34B
Dividend Yield1.19%
Average Volume (3M)240.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.9
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth5.59%
EPS Growth26.44%
CountryUS
Employees13,049
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Lodging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.93
Shares Outstanding148,581,150
10 Day Avg. Volume235,035
30 Day Avg. Volume240,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)-8.01
Price to Sales (P/S)4.23
P/FCF Ratio25.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$172.50Price Target Upside10.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)5.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.55B
Intercontinental Hotels Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) is a prominent global hospitality enterprise whose business model encompasses the ownership, management, franchising, and leasing of hotel properties. Its extensive operations span diverse geographic regions...
How the Company Makes Money
IHG primarily makes money by monetizing its brands and operating platform across a largely asset-light hotel network.
1) Franchise fees: A significant portion of IHG’s hotels are franchised to third-party owners. IHG earns ongoing fees tied to ho...
Intercontinental Hotels Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook: strong system growth (gross 6.6%, net 4.7%), margin expansion (+360 bps), double-digit EPS and EBIT growth, robust cash generation and an increased buyback program. Management acknowledged several near-term timing and mix headwinds — notably fee-income timing noise from a record level of openings, renovation-related disruptions, lumpy key-money recognition, and China’s gradual recovery — but positioned these as temporary dynamics that should normalize and turn into tailwinds. Given the weight of strong development activity, margin gains, loyalty/ancillary momentum and capital-return commitments versus primarily timing-related challenges, the overall tone is constructive and optimistic.Positive Updates
Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) Growth
RevPAR grew 1.5% in 2025, with early 2026 trading indicators positive across all three regions and China turning positive in Q4 2025 (+1.1%).
Negative Updates
Fee Revenue Timing and 'Fee Triangulation' Noise
Fee revenue growth exhibited timing and mix noise in 2025 driven by a record level of openings (many hotels not fully ramped), numerous renovations (temporary fee disruption), large exits (e.g., two NYC hotels) and leap-year effects; contributed to a temporary gap between comparable RevPAR and total RevPAR impacts on fee income.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) Growth
RevPAR grew 1.5% in 2025, with early 2026 trading indicators positive across all three regions and China turning positive in Q4 2025 (+1.1%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave constructive near‑term and medium‑term guidance with many concrete metrics: 2025 RevPAR rose 1.5% (China Q4 RevPAR +1.1%), fee‑related ancillaries (cards/points) are expected to keep growing in double‑digits (>10%) and card fees are targeted to triple by 2028, while fee margin expanded 360 bps in 2025; costs fell ~3% in 2025 and are expected to rise only ~1% in 2026 on a like‑for‑like P&L basis. They completed a $900m buyback in 2025 and launched a new $950m program, reaffirmed key‑money guidance of $200–250m and total capital of ~ $350m p.a., and said they’re comfortable with consensus net system growth (~4.4%) while reporting 2025 net system growth 4.7% (gross system growth 6.6%), 102,000 rooms signed across 694 hotels (up 9%), pipeline +4.4% and openings +10%; other headline metrics: EBIT +13%, adjusted EPS +16%, IHG One Rewards 160m members (from 145m) with ~66% of room nights from members (72–73% in the U.S.), and removals expected to trend back toward ~1.5%.Intercontinental Hotels Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.19B | 4.92B | 3.73B | 3.89B | 2.91B |
| Gross Profit | 1.66B | 1.46B | 1.94B | 1.09B | 893.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.25B | 1.27B | 815.00M | 692.00M |
| Net Income | 758.00M | 628.00M | 750.00M | 375.00M | 266.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.34B | 4.75B | 4.81B | 4.22B | 4.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.13B | 1.01B | 1.33B | 976.00M | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 4.62B | 3.69B | 3.59B | 2.82B | 3.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.08B | 7.06B | 6.76B | 5.82B | 6.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.74B | -2.31B | -1.95B | -1.61B | -1.48B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 870.00M | 646.00M | 811.00M | 547.00M | 584.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 898.00M | 724.00M | 893.00M | 646.00M | 636.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -190.00M | -99.00M | -137.00M | -78.00M | -12.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -614.00M | -894.00M | -417.00M | -961.00M | -860.00M |
Intercontinental Hotels Group Technical Analysis
Negative
156.18
Price Trends
163.13
Negative
152.75
Positive
143.63
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.26
Positive
40.32
Neutral
21.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IHG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 156.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 158.56, below the 50-day MA of 163.13, and above the 200-day MA of 143.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IHG.
Intercontinental Hotels Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $71.48B | 45.20 | -28.13% | 0.19% | 8.74% | 4.50% | |
66 Neutral | $12.80B | 4.76 | 41.76% | 5.21% | 9.63% | 59.04% | |
63 Neutral | $23.34B | 37.94 | -23.50% | 1.18% | 5.59% | 26.44% | |
62 Neutral | $92.29B | 36.30 | -66.73% | 0.73% | 4.72% | 8.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $16.77B | 197.77 | 2.37% | 0.32% | 6.36% | -80.55% | |
55 Neutral | $5.48B | 25.85 | 42.06% | 2.28% | -2.21% | -35.98% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
IHG
Intercontinental Hotels Group
155.63
39.78
34.34%
HTHT
H World Group
43.01
12.37
40.39%
H
Hyatt Hotels
170.08
35.57
26.45%
MAR
Marriott International
348.44
92.73
36.27%
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings
311.00
50.48
19.38%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
71.35
-10.89
-13.24%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.