Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.78B
• Dividend Yield: 1.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 267.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 8.89%
• EPS Growth: 23.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,587
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Lodging
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 150,950,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 334,633
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 267,718
• PEG Ratio: 1.12
• Price to Book (P/B): -8.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.24
• 1Y Price Target: $151.33
• Price Target Upside: 13.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.53B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $160.00 ▲(19.60% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/19/26

The score is driven by strong operating results and cash generation plus a positive earnings outlook and shareholder returns, supported by an uptrend in technicals. The main constraints are balance-sheet leverage/negative equity and a relatively rich valuation with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

System Growth & Development Pipeline

Sustained development activity and accelerating net system growth expand IHG’s fee-bearing asset base and franchise footprint. A growing pipeline and strong signings convert into recurring management/franchise fees over years, improving revenue visibility and compounding fee income beyond short cycles.

Fee Margin & Ancillary Revenue Expansion

Material fee-margin uplift and rising ancillary/card fees reflect structural upside in higher-margin, scalable revenue streams. If maintained, these dynamics enhance cash conversion and profitability per room, limiting sensitivity to room-level RevPAR volatility and supporting durable margin expansion.

Strong Free Cash Flow & Capital Returns

Consistent high cash conversion and active buybacks signal robust free cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. This strengthens shareholder returns and indicates management confidence in underlying cashflows, supporting investment and debt servicing while enabling return of capital over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage & Negative Equity

Persistently negative equity and elevated leverage materially reduce financial flexibility and raise refinancing risk. In an industry cyclical downturn or higher rates, limited balance-sheet cushion constrains ability to fund growth or absorb shocks without raising costly debt or reducing capital returns.

Fee Timing, Mix & Take‑Rate Pressure

Lumpy recognition from openings, renovations and deferred key-money can create persistent volatility in fee income. Meanwhile declining effective take-rates versus pre-COVID suggest new-room economics and fee capture may be eroding, challenging sustainable fee-margin gains if not reversed.

China Recovery Lags & Margin Impact

China is a large and growing portion of the pipeline; a gradual recovery and weaker unit economics there prolongs ramp time for new openings and depresses fee and incentive income. Slow Chinese demand recovery poses a multi-quarter drag on consolidated margins and cash conversion.

Intercontinental Hotels Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns, manages, franchises, and leases hotels in the Americas, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Greater China. The company operates hotels under the Six Senses, Regent, InterContinental Hotels & Resorts, Vignette Collection, Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants, Hotel Indigo, EVEN Hotels, HUALUXE, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express, Holiday Inn Club Vacations, avid, Staybridge Suites, Atwell Suites, Candlewood Suites, voco, and Crowne Plaza. It also provides IHG Rewards loyalty program. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 5,991 hotels and 880,327 rooms in approximately 100 countries. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC was founded in 1777 and is headquartered in Denham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

IHG generates revenue primarily through a combination of hotel management and franchise fees. The company operates two main revenue streams: management contracts and franchise agreements. Under management contracts, IHG manages hotels on behalf of owners, receiving a management fee based on the hotel's revenue and often an incentive fee tied to profitability. Franchise agreements allow independent hotel owners to operate under IHG's brand, whereby IHG earns a franchise fee based on a percentage of the hotel's revenue, as well as additional fees for marketing and support services. IHG also benefits from its IHG Rewards loyalty program, which encourages repeat business and drives customer retention, contributing to overall earnings. Significant partnerships with travel agencies, online booking platforms, and corporate clients further enhance IHG's revenue potential as they provide access to a broader customer base.

Intercontinental Hotels Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is strong (rebounding revenue growth, solid profitability, and robust recent free cash flow), but balance-sheet risk is a major offset: consistently negative equity and elevated leverage reduce financial flexibility and resilience if travel demand weakens.

Income Statement

Revenue has rebounded strongly since 2020, with continued growth through 2024–2025, and profitability is solid with healthy operating and net margins in the most recent years. However, margins were meaningfully higher in 2023 than 2024–2025 (suggesting some normalization), and the 2020 downturn highlights cyclical sensitivity in travel demand.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key constraint: total debt is high relative to the size of the balance sheet, and stockholders’ equity is negative across all years provided, which weakens financial flexibility and makes equity-based strength indicators less meaningful. While assets have grown, the capital structure remains the primary risk factor.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently strong in recent years, with operating cash flow and free cash flow at robust levels and free cash flow broadly tracking net income. That said, cash flow coverage of debt is modest and not improving materially, implying debt service and refinancing capacity rely on staying in a favorable operating environment.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.19B	4.92B	3.73B	3.89B	2.91B
Gross Profit	1.66B	1.46B	1.94B	1.09B	893.00M
EBITDA	1.35B	1.25B	1.27B	815.00M	692.00M
Net Income	758.00M	628.00M	750.00M	375.00M	266.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.34B	4.75B	4.81B	4.22B	4.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.13B	1.01B	1.33B	976.00M	1.45B
Total Debt	4.62B	3.69B	3.59B	2.82B	3.26B
Total Liabilities	8.08B	7.06B	6.76B	5.82B	6.19B
Stockholders Equity	-2.74B	-2.31B	-1.95B	-1.61B	-1.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	870.00M	646.00M	811.00M	547.00M	584.00M
Operating Cash Flow	898.00M	724.00M	893.00M	646.00M	636.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-190.00M	-99.00M	-137.00M	-78.00M	-12.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-614.00M	-894.00M	-417.00M	-961.00M	-860.00M

Intercontinental Hotels Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 133.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IHG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 133.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 143.04, below the 50-day MA of 140.73, and above the 200-day MA of 126.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IHG.

Intercontinental Hotels Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HTHT	74 Outperform	$16.37B	31.73	32.28%	3.60%	5.70%	9.53%
IHG	71 Outperform	$19.78B	28.26	―	1.21%	8.89%	23.20%
HLT	69 Neutral	$69.89B	50.93	―	0.21%	6.68%	48.03%
H	68 Neutral	$15.10B	-290.04	-1.51%	0.36%	2.61%	-106.74%
MAR	68 Neutral	$87.57B	35.95	―	0.84%	4.68%	-1.10%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
WH	61 Neutral	$6.05B	32.72	34.53%	2.13%	3.38%	38.04%

Intercontinental Hotels Group Corporate Events

InterContinental Hotels Group Discloses Share Award Vesting for New CHRO

On 8 January 2026, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported that its Chief Human Resources Officer, Tejas Katre, received a transfer of 532 ordinary shares at nil consideration following the vesting of a Deferred Award Plan grant made on 28 February 2024, prior to his appointment as CHRO and designation as a person discharging managerial responsibilities. The off-market transfer, disclosed on 23 January 2026 via a regulatory filing, reflects routine executive compensation and equity vesting rather than open-market share dealing, and is not expected to have a material impact on IHG’s capital structure or day-to-day operations, though it provides additional transparency around senior management incentives for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (IHG) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Hotels Group stock, see the IHG Stock Forecast page.

InterContinental Hotels Group Completes December 2025 Share Buybacks and Confirms Voting Rights

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported a series of share buyback transactions in late December 2025 under the authority granted at its 8 May 2025 AGM, as part of a previously announced repurchase programme with Merrill Lynch International. On 23, 24 and 29 December 2025, the company bought back and intends to cancel a total of 56,109 ordinary shares, with purchases executed on the London Stock Exchange at volume-weighted average prices of around £104–£105 per share, leaving 151,644,808 ordinary shares in issue (excluding treasury) as at 31 December 2025. In a concurrent voting rights update, IHG confirmed that its issued share capital stood at 157,126,590 ordinary shares, of which 5,481,782 are held in treasury, establishing 151,644,808 voting rights for shareholders’ disclosure calculations and marking the completion of the February 2025 buyback programme with MLI, which marginally enhances earnings per share and clarifies the company’s capital structure for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (IHG) stock is a Hold with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Hotels Group stock, see the IHG Stock Forecast page.

InterContinental Hotels Group Discloses Capital Group Stake Trim Below 5%

On 6 January 2026, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported a change in a major shareholding after The Capital Group Companies, Inc. reduced its position in the company to 4.895671% of voting rights, equivalent to 7,424,031 voting rights, down from just over 5%. The notification, completed in Los Angeles on 7 January 2026 and disclosed via a regulatory filing on 8 January 2026, reflects a modest trimming of Capital Group’s stake, signaling a shift by a large institutional investor but leaving it with a significant minority holding, which may be of interest to shareholders monitoring changes in IHG’s institutional ownership profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (IHG) stock is a Hold with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Hotels Group stock, see the IHG Stock Forecast page.

InterContinental Hotels Group Executes Share Buyback Program in December 2025

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC announced a series of transactions involving the repurchase of its own shares from Merrill Lynch International on the London Stock Exchange. These transactions, conducted between November 28 and December 11, 2025, are part of a strategic move to manage the company’s share capital, as authorized by shareholders earlier in the year. The company intends to cancel the repurchased shares, which could potentially impact the company’s share value and stakeholder interests by reducing the number of shares in circulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (IHG) stock is a Hold with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intercontinental Hotels Group stock, see the IHG Stock Forecast page.