Want to see MAIN full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Main Street Capital
(NYSE:MAIN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$66.00
â–²(23.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
MAIN scores well primarily due to strong profitability and a generally solid balance-sheet profile, reinforced by a constructive earnings call highlighting record NAV, conservative leverage, and strong liquidity. Valuation is supportive with a high dividend yield and moderate P/E. The main constraints on the score are inconsistent cash-flow generation and signs of near-term overbought technical conditions.
Positive Factors
High ROE & Record NAV
Sustained high return on equity and a record NAV reflect durable portfolio earnings power and capital appreciation. This supports long-term dividend capacity, provides a valuation cushion for investments, and signals successful origination and exit execution across cycles.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Irregular operating and free cash flows undermine predictability of distributable earnings. For a BDC that must return most taxable income, inconsistent cash conversion increases dependence on mark-to-market gains or financing, elevating execution risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High ROE & Record NAV
Sustained high return on equity and a record NAV reflect durable portfolio earnings power and capital appreciation. This supports long-term dividend capacity, provides a valuation cushion for investments, and signals successful origination and exit execution across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Main Street Capital (MAIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.47B
Dividend Yield7.3%
Average Volume (3M)639.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth3.49%
EPS Growth-18.26%
CountryUS
Employees110
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.96
Shares Outstanding93,508,460
10 Day Avg. Volume622,969
30 Day Avg. Volume639,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)8.37
P/FCF Ratio15.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$56.50Price Target Upside5.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$583.32M
Main Street Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is an internally managed business development company (BDC) that provides long-term debt and equity capital to lower middle market and middle market U.S. companies. It primarily finances and partners with pri...
How the Company Makes Money
Main Street Capital makes money primarily from investment income generated by its portfolio of debt and equity investments. Its core revenue stream is interest income on loans it extends to portfolio companies (commonly structured as secured first...
Main Street Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and capital metrics — record NAV, an 18.9% annualized ROE, portfolio fair-value appreciation, meaningful realized gains from several equity exits, solid fee income from the asset management business, conservative leverage (0.69x) and strong liquidity ($1.2B). Offsetting items include a YoY decline in dividend income, modest pressure on DNII vs prior year driven by lower non-recurring items, rising interest and operating expenses, and variability among some portfolio companies. Management emphasized liquidity, conservative capital structure, and expectations for continued investment activity and future supplemental dividends. Overall, positive fundamentals and realized gains outweigh the near-term headwinds and one-time variability.Positive Updates
Strong Return on Equity and Record NAV
Annualized return on equity of 18.9%; NAV per share reached a record $33.92, up $0.46 QoQ (+1.4%) and up $1.62 YoY (+5.0%).
Negative Updates
Decline in Dividend Income
Dividend income decreased by $10.4 million YoY (including a $2.5 million decrease in unusual/non-recurring dividends) and decreased $0.8 million QoQ. Decline was driven by exits of lower middle market companies and changes in capital allocation decisions among portfolio companies.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Return on Equity and Record NAV
Annualized return on equity of 18.9%; NAV per share reached a record $33.92, up $0.46 QoQ (+1.4%) and up $1.62 YoY (+5.0%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward guidance centered on DNII and dividends: they expect Q3 2026 DNII before taxes of at least $0.97 per share (Q2 DNII before taxes was $1.08, down $0.03 YoY and up $0.04 QoQ) and signaled they will likely recommend an additional significant supplemental dividend payable in December 2026 after declaring a $0.30 supplemental dividend for September and regular Q4 2026 monthly dividends of $0.265 per share (a 3.9% increase vs. Q4 2025); total supplemental dividends over the trailing 12 months are $1.20 per share (about 38% above regular monthly dividends). They said future supplemental dividends will be considered when DNII before taxes substantially exceeds regular monthly dividends or when net realized gains are generated and NAV per share remains stable/positive (Q2 NAV was $33.92, up $1.62 YoY). Pipeline commentary was cautious-to-constructive — both lower middle market and private loan pipelines were characterized as "average" but management expects new investments and follow-ons in Q3–Q4 and an improved private loan lending environment; they also noted plans to launch Fund III (fundraise window ~18–24 months) with fees on deployed capital. On capital positioning, they emphasized conservative leverage and strong liquidity: regulatory debt-to-equity of 0.69x, regulatory asset coverage ratio 2.44x (targets 0.8–0.9x and 2.25–2.1x), cash and unused capacity of ~$1.2 billion, next firm maturity $400 million in June 2027, issuance of $150 million April 2031 notes at 6.93%, and an amended $1.24 billion credit facility.Main Street Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 699.74M | 644.50M | 724.68M | 612.46M | 396.46M | 470.01M |
| Gross Profit | 596.59M | 644.50M | 601.25M | 509.88M | 318.19M | 411.17M |
| EBITDA | 453.15M | 526.71M | 543.87M | 454.42M | 264.93M | 363.63M |
| Net Income | 451.34M | 493.40M | 508.08M | 428.45M | 241.61M | 330.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.94B | 5.71B | 5.12B | 4.44B | 4.24B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.31M | 41.96M | 78.25M | 60.08M | 49.12M | 32.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.53B | 2.46B | 2.12B | 1.80B | 2.00B | 1.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.77B | 2.72B | 2.32B | 1.97B | 2.13B | 1.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.17B | 2.99B | 2.80B | 2.48B | 2.11B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 172.17M | 347.44M | -87.12M | 285.32M | -246.94M | -515.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 172.17M | 347.44M | -87.12M | 285.32M | -246.94M | -515.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -321.98M | -393.15M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 680.02M | 1.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 121.13M | 9.41M | 105.29M | -274.36M | 263.43M | 516.08M |
Main Street Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
53.47
Price Trends
52.58
Positive
52.39
Positive
54.55
Positive
Market Momentum
1.61
Negative
71.21
Negative
89.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.18, above the 50-day MA of 52.58, and below the 200-day MA of 54.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAIN.
Main Street Capital Risk Analysis
Main Street Capital disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Main Street Capital reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Main Street Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $5.47B | 11.90 | 13.30% | 8.04% | 3.49% | -18.26% | |
68 Neutral | $3.21B | 7.98 | 17.21% | 10.17% | 44.00% | 36.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $5.66B | 19.22 | 4.62% | 13.25% | -14.94% | -55.20% | |
62 Neutral | $726.34M | -16.10 | -4.83% | 17.69% | -50.21% | -161.42% | |
60 Neutral | $242.25M | 41.79 | 0.01% | 29.18% | 138.32% | -27.91% | |
57 Neutral | $3.37B | -9.03 | -6.65% | 21.64% | -35.39% | -272.02% |
* Financial Sector Average
MAIN
Main Street Capital
59.03
-2.82
-4.57%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
16.67
-0.46
-2.70%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
7.73
-1.26
-14.04%
PNNT
Pennantpark Investment
3.74
-2.34
-38.49%
FSK
FS KKR Capital
12.25
-2.62
-17.63%
BXSL
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund
24.42
-2.23
-8.38%
Main Street Capital Corporate Events
Dividends
Main Street Capital Announces Regular and Supplemental Dividends
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Main Street Capital Corporation announced that its board declared regular monthly cash dividends of $0.265 per share for each of October, November and December 2026, totaling $0.795 per share for the fourth quarter. These payout...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Main Street Capital Expands and Extends Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Main Street Capital Corporation amended its revolving corporate credit facility, increasing total lender commitments from $1.175 billion to $1.240 billion and expanding its accordion feature to permit future increases in commitme...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Main Street Capital Updates Investor Presentation for Stakeholders
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Main Street Capital posted an updated investor presentation on its corporate website in connection with its analysts’ and investors’ day, making the materials publicly accessible to market participants. The presentati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.