Main Street Capital (MAIN)
NYSE:MAIN
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Main Street Capital
(NYSE:MAIN)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$60.00
â–²(9.45% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily driven by strong underlying profitability and a supportive earnings-call outlook (dividend increases/supplementals, record NAV, and solid liquidity). These positives are tempered by volatile cash flow history and a technically weak price trend (trading below key moving averages), while valuation/income metrics (moderate P/E and high yield) provide an additional cushion.
Positive Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained very high net and operating margins indicate durable earnings power from Main Street’s credit and equity investment mix. High margin profile supports ongoing dividend capacity and resilience to cyclical revenue swings, underpinning long‑term cash available for distributions.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Material volatility in operating and free cash flow limits predictability of internally generated funds for reinvestment and dividends. Sharp TTM declines and historical multi‑year negative cash flow episodes raise questions about cash conversion reliability through varying credit cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained very high net and operating margins indicate durable earnings power from Main Street’s credit and equity investment mix. High margin profile supports ongoing dividend capacity and resilience to cyclical revenue swings, underpinning long‑term cash available for distributions.
Read all positive factors
Main Street Capital (MAIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.76B
Dividend Yield7.17%
Average Volume (3M)736.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.5
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth16.23%
EPS Growth-19.30%
CountryUS
Employees104
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.75
Shares Outstanding92,989,840
10 Day Avg. Volume908,831
30 Day Avg. Volume736,530
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)8.37
P/FCF Ratio15.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$60.33Price Target Upside10.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$583.96M
Main Street Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company specializes in equity capital to lower middle market companies. The firm specializing in recapitalizations, management buyouts, refinancing, family estate planning, management buyou...
How the Company Makes Money
Main Street Capital makes money primarily by investing capital into private U.S. businesses and earning returns from those investments. Its key revenue and earnings drivers include: (1) Interest income from debt investments: MAIN originates and ho...
Main Street Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple positive operational and capital-strength developments: record NAV, substantial lower middle market and private loan portfolio growth, realized gains and dividend increases, and strong liquidity and capital-raising activity. Offsetting items included a net fair value depreciation of $32.6M (concentrated in private loans and asset management), declines in dividend income and a modest decrease in DNII per share, plus higher operating expenses and some nonaccruals. Overall, the positive items — particularly portfolio growth, record NAV, realized gains, dividend actions and robust liquidity — outweigh the identified headwinds.Positive Updates
Record NAV Per Share
NAV per share reached a record $33.46, up $1.43 or 4.5% year-over-year and up $0.13 quarter-over-quarter, driven by equity issuances and net fair value increases in the lower middle market portfolio.
Negative Updates
Net Fair Value Depreciation
Recorded net fair value depreciation of $32.6 million in Q1 2026 (net unrealized depreciation partially offset by net realized gains), primarily driven by depreciation in the private loan portfolio and the asset management business.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record NAV Per Share
NAV per share reached a record $33.46, up $1.43 or 4.5% year-over-year and up $0.13 quarter-over-quarter, driven by equity issuances and net fair value increases in the lower middle market portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 distributable net investment income (DNII) before taxes of at least $1.00 per share (Q1 DNII before taxes was $1.04, down $0.03 Y/Y and $0.07 Q/Q) with upside potential, and said it will recommend supplemental dividends when DNII before taxes materially exceeds regular monthly payouts or when net realized gains occur and NAV remains stable-to-positive. The board declared a $0.30 per‑share supplemental dividend payable in June (the 19th consecutive), raised Q3 regular monthly dividends to $0.265 per share (a 3.9% increase versus Q3 2025), noted trailing‑12‑month supplemental payouts of $1.20 per share (39% in excess of regular dividends) and expects to propose a significant supplemental dividend payable in September 2026. Management pointed to a record NAV of $33.46 per share (up $0.13 Q/Q and $1.43 or 4.5% Y/Y), conservative regulatory debt‑to‑equity leverage of 0.71x and asset coverage of 2.41x, roughly $1.4 billion of cash plus unused credit capacity, and a $500 million near‑term maturity in July 2026 as supporting capital metrics; Q1 capital actions included a $30M facility expansion to $1.175B, $200M 2029 notes (6.2% yield), $150M 2031 private notes (6.93%) and $134.1M net ATM equity proceeds. Operational context for the guidance included Q1 total investment income of $140.1M (up $3.1M Y/Y, down $5.4M Q/Q), $18M of net realized gains and $32.6M of net fair‑value depreciation, nonaccruals ~1.2% of portfolio fair value, and Q1 net portfolio growth of about $157M in lower‑middle‑market investments and $37M in private loans.Main Street Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 727.61M | 644.50M | 724.68M | 612.46M | 396.46M | 470.01M |
| Gross Profit | 628.58M | 644.50M | 601.25M | 509.88M | 318.19M | 411.17M |
| EBITDA | 486.16M | 526.71M | 538.71M | 451.09M | 264.93M | 363.63M |
| Net Income | 426.30M | 493.40M | 508.08M | 428.45M | 241.61M | 330.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.83B | 5.71B | 5.12B | 4.44B | 4.24B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.79M | 41.96M | 78.25M | 60.08M | 49.12M | 32.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.54B | 2.46B | 2.12B | 1.80B | 2.00B | 1.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.73B | 2.72B | 2.32B | 1.97B | 2.13B | 1.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.09B | 2.99B | 2.80B | 2.48B | 2.11B | 1.79B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 342.29M | 347.44M | -87.12M | 285.32M | -246.94M | -515.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 342.29M | 347.44M | -87.12M | 285.32M | -246.94M | -515.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -506.14M | -393.15M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 680.02M | 1.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 75.46M | 9.41M | 105.29M | -274.36M | 263.43M | 516.08M |
Main Street Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
54.82
Price Trends
53.73
Negative
56.58
Negative
57.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.00
Positive
41.11
Neutral
14.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.54, above the 50-day MA of 53.73, and below the 200-day MA of 57.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAIN.
Main Street Capital Risk Analysis
Main Street Capital disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Main Street Capital reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Main Street Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $4.76B | 24.50 | 14.32% | 7.17% | 16.23% | -19.30% | |
69 Neutral | $2.93B | 15.88 | 15.11% | 10.00% | 14.32% | 36.84% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $766.95M | -3.83 | -4.83% | 14.17% | -24.31% | -157.16% | |
59 Neutral | $5.52B | 54.47 | 7.05% | 11.44% | -10.53% | -39.73% | |
50 Neutral | $250.08M | -30.83 | 0.01% | 16.61% | 122.81% | 43.00% | |
50 Neutral | $3.07B | -1.62 | -9.39% | 18.52% | -38.13% | -203.38% |
* Financial Sector Average
MAIN
Main Street Capital
51.22
-0.31
-0.60%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
15.64
0.16
1.02%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
8.12
-1.10
-11.93%
PNNT
Pennantpark Investment
3.83
-1.73
-31.15%
FSK
FS KKR Capital
10.96
-6.66
-37.79%
BXSL
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund
23.72
-4.04
-14.54%
Main Street Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Main Street Capital Shareholders Back Board, Governance Measures
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Main Street Capital Corporation held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, where holders of 90,104,831 outstanding common shares as of March 3, 2026, were entitled to vote on three proposals. Stockholders elected all seven direc...
Dividends
Main Street Capital Declares Higher Regular and Supplemental Dividends
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Main Street Capital Corporation announced that its board declared regular monthly cash dividends of $0.265 per share for each of July, August and September 2026, totaling $0.795 per share for the third quarter. These payouts mark a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Main Street Capital Completes $150 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Main Street Capital Corporation announced it had closed a $150 million private placement of investment-grade, unsecured Series A Senior Notes bearing a fixed 6.93% annual interest rate and maturing on April 15, 2031, with interes...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Main Street Capital Expands 2029 Notes via New Offering
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Main Street Capital Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with RBC Capital Markets to issue an additional $200 million of 6.95% notes due 2029, which were sold in a public offering that closed on March 31, 2026. The...
Dividends
Main Street Capital Raises Regular Dividend, Adds Supplemental Payout
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Main Street Capital announced that its board declared regular monthly cash dividends of $0.26 per share for each of April, May and June 2026, totaling $0.78 per share for the second quarter and marking a 4.0% increase over di...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.