Main Street Capital (MAIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.17B
• Dividend Yield: 7.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 502.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 11.60%
• EPS Growth: 9.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 104
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 89,587,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 482,072
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 502,421
• PEG Ratio: 0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.59
• P/FCF Ratio: -59.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.59
• 1Y Price Target: $63.50
• Price Target Upside: 10.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $66.00 ▲(14.40% Upside)

Main Street Capital's strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call sentiment are offset by technical indicators suggesting bearish trends and cash flow management challenges. The stock remains a solid investment with potential for income through dividends.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue Growth

Main Street Capital's robust revenue growth indicates effective business strategies and expanding market presence, supporting long-term profitability.

Record NAV Per Share

Consistent NAV per share growth reflects strong asset management and value appreciation, enhancing shareholder value over time.

Strong Liquidity Position

A strong liquidity position provides Main Street Capital with financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and manage economic uncertainties.

Negative Factors

Negative Operating Cash Flows

Negative operating cash flows can indicate potential cash management issues, affecting the company's ability to fund operations and growth sustainably.

Decrease in Private Loan Investments

A decrease in private loan investments may limit future income streams and growth potential, impacting long-term revenue generation.

Net Realized Losses

Net realized losses from investments can erode profitability and indicate potential challenges in portfolio management, affecting long-term financial health.

Main Street Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company specializes in equity capital to lower middle market companies. The firm specializing in recapitalizations, management buyouts, refinancing, family estate planning, management buyouts, refinancing, industry consolidation, mature, later stage emerging growth. The firm also provides debt capital to middle market companies for acquisitions, management buyouts, growth financings, recapitalizations and refinancing. The firm seeks to partner with entrepreneurs, business owners and management teams and generally provides one stop financing alternatives within its lower middle market portfolio. It prefers to invest in air freight and logistics, auto components, building products, chemicals, commercial services, computers, construction and engineering, consumer finance, consumer services, electronic equipment, energy equipment and services, financial services, health care equipment, health care providers, hotels, restaurants, and leisure, internet software and services, IT Services, machinery, oil, gas and consumable fuels, paper and forest products, professional and industrial services, road and rail, software, specialty retail, telecommunication, consumer discretionary, energy, materials, technology, and transportation. The firm typically invests in lower middle market companies generally with annual revenues between $5 million and $300 million. It prefers to invest in ranging between $2 million and $75 million in equity investment and enterprise value in ranging between $3 million and $20 million. The firm typically prefers to invest in the range of $5 million and $50 million per transaction in debt investment value and in the range of $1 million and $20 million in annual EBITDA. The firm's middle market debt investments are made in businesses that are generally larger in size than its lower middle market portfolio companies. It takes 5 percent minority and up to 50 percent majority equity investments. Main Street Capital Corporation was founded in 2007 and is based in Houston, Texas with an additional office in Chojnów, Poland.

How the Company Makes Money

Main Street Capital generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and dividends from its equity investments in portfolio companies. The company typically invests in the form of first lien and second lien loans, as well as equity co-investments, which yield interest payments and potential capital appreciation. Additionally, Main Street earns management fees from its investment activities and occasionally engages in strategic partnerships, which can enhance its investment opportunities and operational efficiencies. The company's revenue is further supported by its ability to identify and invest in companies with strong growth prospects, allowing it to capture value through successful exits or ongoing income streams.

Main Street Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Main Street Capital shows strong revenue growth and profitability with a solid balance sheet, but faces challenges in cash flow management, indicated by negative operating cash flows and free cash flow in 2024.

Income Statement

The company has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from $50.1 million in 2020 to $541 million in 2024. The gross profit margin is consistently at 100%, which is typical for asset management firms due to the nature of their revenue recognition. However, the net profit margin is not calculable for 2024 due to missing net income data. EBIT margins are robust, reflecting efficient cost management, but the lack of EBITDA data limits full profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid, with a strong equity base and a debt-free status in 2024, reflecting reduced leverage from previous years. The equity ratio has improved, indicating financial stability and a strong asset base. There is a significant increase in cash reserves, contributing to a healthier liquidity position. However, the absence of debt-to-equity calculations for 2024 limits full leverage analysis.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows fluctuations with negative operating cash flows in recent years, which could indicate potential cash management issues. Despite this, the company has a strong investing cash flow, likely from asset sales or investments. The free cash flow turned negative in 2024 compared to previous positive figures, suggesting potential operational cash strains.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	753.07M	724.68M	612.46M	396.46M	470.01M	100.58M
Gross Profit	622.89M	601.25M	509.88M	318.19M	411.17M	51.00M
EBITDA	554.79M	538.71M	451.09M	264.93M	363.63M	15.84M
Net Income	536.52M	508.08M	428.45M	241.61M	330.76M	29.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.28B	5.12B	4.44B	4.24B	3.69B	2.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	30.57M	78.25M	60.08M	49.12M	32.63M	31.92M
Total Debt	2.15B	2.12B	1.80B	2.00B	1.80B	1.21B
Total Liabilities	2.35B	2.32B	1.97B	2.13B	1.90B	1.25B
Stockholders Equity	2.93B	2.80B	2.48B	2.11B	1.79B	1.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	395.99M	-87.12M	285.32M	-246.94M	-515.37M	-54.08M
Operating Cash Flow	395.99M	-87.12M	285.32M	-246.94M	-515.37M	-54.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-78.18M	0.00	0.00	680.02M	1.05B	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-371.66M	105.29M	-274.36M	263.43M	516.08M	30.76M

Main Street Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 57.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.32, below the 50-day MA of 59.00, and below the 200-day MA of 57.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAIN.

Main Street Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HTGC	77 Outperform	$3.25B	10.40	15.21%	10.29%	-15.32%	-12.29%
MAIN	75 Outperform	$5.17B	9.56	19.07%	7.31%	11.60%	9.38%
BXSL	74 Outperform	$6.36B	10.32	10.02%	11.55%	10.95%	-25.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NMFC	66 Neutral	$991.33M	14.73	5.43%	13.40%	36.15%	-38.59%
FSK	58 Neutral	$4.52B	16.61	4.24%	17.36%	-13.67%	-48.49%
PNNT	48 Neutral	$395.69M	12.09	6.83%	15.84%	-3.09%	200.66%

Main Street Capital Corporate Events

Main Street Capital Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Main Street Capital Corporation is a principal investment firm that provides long-term debt and equity capital solutions to lower middle market companies and private companies owned by private equity funds, with a focus on management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, and acquisitions across diverse industries.

Main Street Capital Announces Dividend Increase and Supplement

On November 4, 2025, Main Street Capital Corporation announced an increase in its regular monthly dividends for the first quarter of 2026 to $0.26 per share, marking a 2.0% rise from the previous quarter and a 4.0% increase from the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, a supplemental dividend of $0.30 per share will be paid in December 2025, reflecting Main Street’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. These dividend declarations bring the total dividends to $1.08 per share, representing an annualized yield of 7.6% based on the recent stock price, and highlight Main Street’s consistent dividend growth since its IPO in 2007.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAIN) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Main Street Capital stock, see the MAIN Stock Forecast page.

Main Street Capital Executes Note Redemption Strategy

On September 26, 2025, Main Street Capital Corporation executed a redemption in accordance with its Master Note Purchase Agreement, initially dated December 23, 2022, and later amended. This move is part of Main Street’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its financial structure and relationships with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAIN) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Main Street Capital stock, see the MAIN Stock Forecast page.

Main Street Capital Closes $350M Notes Offering

On August 13, 2025, Main Street Capital Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC for the issuance and sale of $350 million in 5.40% notes due 2028. The offering closed on August 15, 2025, with net proceeds of approximately $347.7 million intended for repaying outstanding indebtedness. This strategic move is expected to impact Main Street’s financial structure by addressing existing liabilities, potentially enhancing its market position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAIN) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Main Street Capital stock, see the MAIN Stock Forecast page.

Main Street Capital Reports Record Gains Amid Challenges

Main Street Capital’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust performance, particularly in the lower middle market investments and asset management sectors. Despite facing challenges in the private loan portfolio, the company reported record NAV per share and significant realized gains, leading to the announcement of supplemental dividends. This mixed sentiment reflects both the strengths and hurdles the company navigates in the current financial landscape.

Main Street Capital Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Main Street Capital Corporation is a principal investment firm that provides long-term debt and equity capital solutions to lower middle market companies and private companies, primarily focusing on management buyouts, recapitalizations, and growth financings across diverse industry sectors.