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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
NYSE:LUCK
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Lucky Strike Entertainment
(NYSE:LUCK)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-11.97% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity) and a clearly bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by improving operating cash flow/free cash flow and a cautiously optimistic earnings-call outlook with reiterated guidance and expected seasonal EBITDA upside, while valuation is mixed due to a supportive dividend but losses driving a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash flow and positive FCF
Consistent positive operating cash flow (TTM ~$151M) and a return to positive free cash flow (~$43M) demonstrate durable cash-generation. That strengthens the company’s ability to fund capital needs, support targeted acquisitions, and service debt if operating momentum persists.
Scaled revenue with healthy operating margins
Meaningful revenue scaling (TTM +~55%) paired with solid gross (~37%) and EBITDA (~29%) margins shows the venue-based business model benefits from operating leverage. Durable operating profitability supports reinvestment and margin expansion potential as the footprint grows.
Digital and operational improvements boosting spend
Structural gains in digital and in-venue operations—online revenue +28%, booking conversions doubled, tablets increasing check size ~7%, and much higher media reach with lower CPMs—improve customer acquisition economics and spend per guest, supporting long-term revenue durability.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and negative equity
Very high total debt (~$1.49B TTM) and negative shareholders' equity across recent periods materially weaken the capital structure. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and solvency risk, constrains financial flexibility, and amplifies earnings volatility impact over the medium term.
Unstable net income and negative net margin
Despite healthy operating margins, the company reported a TTM net margin of ~-3.8% and multi-year swings to losses. Persistent below-the-line (interest, non‑operating) pressures limit equity rebuilding and retained earnings, reducing buffers against cyclical weakness and limiting strategic optionality.
Seasonality and execution-dependent guidance risk
Management's outlook requires material seasonal EBITDA from acquired water parks and Boomers plus swift cost optimization. Reliance on summer seasonality and successful integration of acquisitions (~$95M) creates structural earnings sensitivity and execution risk that could impair leverage reduction plans if outcomes falter.
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.13B
Dividend Yield2.51%
Average Volume (3M)249.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth3.88%
EPS Growth34.36%
CountryUS
Employees11,374
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding79,185,110
10 Day Avg. Volume437,260
30 Day Avg. Volume249,232
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.62
Price to Book (P/B)-7.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio35.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.50Price Target Upside34.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Lucky Strike Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLucky Strike Entertainment Corporation provides location-based entertainment platforms under the AMF, Bowlero, Lucky X Strike, Boomers, and PBA brand names in North America. It also operates bowling, amusements, water parks, and family entertainment centers. The company was formerly known as Bowlero Corp. and changed its name to Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation in December 2024. Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Mechanicsville, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyLucky Strike Entertainment generates revenue through multiple channels. The primary revenue stream comes from in-game purchases and microtransactions within its gaming platforms, allowing players to buy virtual goods and enhancements. Additionally, LUCK earns income from subscription services that offer premium content and exclusive access to new game releases. The company also partners with advertising networks to monetize its free-to-play games through ad placements, providing an additional revenue source. Strategic collaborations with other entertainment firms and technology companies further enhance its earnings through co-productions and licensing deals, expanding its market reach and audience engagement.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed cautious optimism: management reported modest revenue growth and multiple operational wins (marketing momentum, retail and digital growth, promising water park and Boomers performance, successful rollouts like server tablets and rebrands). However, profitability was pressured by incremental labor and marketing spend that did not always deliver immediate ROI, and weather and lingering corporate events weakness created near-term headwinds. Management emphasized a shift to more targeted investments, expects significant seasonal EBITDA lift from water parks in summer quarters, and expressed confidence in achieving guidance if execution on cost optimization and summer performance holds.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Modest Same-Store Sales and Revenue Growth
Same-store sales comp finished December at +0.3% and total revenue grew +2.3% for the quarter, driven by strength in retail and leagues.
Events Business Showing Early Turnaround
Events, previously a multi-quarter drag, finished nearly flat for the quarter and showed organic growth in January and February with early January delivering strong double-digit results prior to a major snowstorm.
Retail and Digital Performance Gains
Retail comp was 1.7% for the quarter; retail food grew 10.9%, retail nonalcoholic sales grew +26.2 (~$2M). Online revenue increased +28% year-over-year and booking conversions improved twofold.
Major Marketing and Brand Momentum
Media impressions rose ~200% (from ~340M to >1B), search impressions increased ~520%, and CPMs decreased ~38%, improving marketing efficiency while increasing share of voice.
Store Rebrands and Brand Consolidation
Opened Lucky Strike Aliso Viejo and now operate ~100 Lucky Strike locations; management expects to reach ~200–218 Lucky Strike locations by end of calendar 2026, simplifying to two brands (Lucky Strike and AMF) to drive marketing efficiencies.
Water Parks and Boomers Driving Seasonal EBITDA Upside
Closed acquisition of Raging Waters (largest water park in California); combined with Wet 'n Wild Emerald Point and three acquired family entertainment centers, management expects meaningful EBITDA contributions in June and September quarters. Legacy Boomers and Destin saw strong recent results (legacy Boomers revenue +25% over last two weeks; Destin water park up +20% YoY).
Operational Enhancements Boosting Spend Per Guest
Server tablets rolled out to 125 locations (160 by March) increased average check size by ~7% and increased gratuities; NPS comp has improved for 14 straight months, peaking at 78.7% in October.
Acquisition Activity and Portfolio Diversification
Approximately $95M of acquisitions year-to-date; acquisitions and targeted capital projects expected to diversify revenue streams and provide seasonal leverage for summer quarters.
Negative Updates
Profitability Pressure from Incremental Labor
Center payroll increased by ~$6M year-over-year, with incremental labor weighing on margins; management acknowledged some added service labor did not deliver expected ROI and will be optimized.
Elevated Marketing and Team Costs
Marketing investment was up ~$4M YoY and marketing team costs increased ~$1M YoY — while largely deliberate, these increases pressured EBITDA in the quarter until returns fully materialize.
Some Investments Failed to Deliver Expected ROI
Management said not all spending generated the expected returns (notably parts of incremental labor and activity spend), prompting a shift to more targeted and measured investments with higher return thresholds.
Weather-Related Revenue Headwinds
Severe snowstorms impacted results: January weather cost ~ $5M in revenue (and December weather cost ~ $2M), reducing the magnitude of what would have been stronger comps for January.
Corporate Events Remain a Historical Drag
Corporate events (part of the larger events business) have been a multi-quarter drag and remain challenged; recovery is in early stages and still requires rebuilding marketing and lead generation on the corporate side.
Alcohol Sales Down
Retail alcohol sales were down ~4.7%, partially offset by strong nonalcoholic growth; some parks (e.g., Raging Waters) currently lack liquor licenses, delaying potential F&B lifts until future seasons.
Guidance Sensitivity and Execution Risk
Management did not narrow full-year EBITDA guidance despite first-half results requiring a significant second-half uptick to reach prior guidance; key variables include water park profitability, summer season pass sales, and rapid cost optimization.
Company Guidance
Management reiterated they remain within the full‑year guidance range and expect to achieve it, pointing to a December same‑store sales comp of +0.3% and total revenue growth of +2.3%, with events nearly flat for the quarter and January showing “strong double‑digit” comps despite a ~$5M January snow hit (and ~$2M in December); center payroll was up $6M YoY, marketing spend up $4M YoY plus $1M for the marketing team, retail comp ~1.7% (retail food +10.9%, retail non‑alcoholic +26.2% or +$2M, retail alcohol -4.7%), online revenue +28% YoY, media impressions rose from ~340M to >1B (~+200%), search impressions +520% while CPMs fell 38%, booking conversions doubled, server tablets (125 locations) lifted average check ~7% and will be in 160 locations by March, Kraft Lemonades has a >$5M run rate, summer season passes were $13M last year and management expects to exceed that, acquisitions this year totaled ~$95M (including Raging Waters) and water parks/Boomers should provide meaningful EBITDA lifts in the June and September quarters with material margin expansion expected in Q4.Lucky Strike Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operating metrics are improving (TTM revenue up ~55%, EBITDA margin ~29%, and free cash flow positive at ~$43M), but shareholder risk remains high due to very high debt (~$1.49B) and negative equity across recent periods. Net results are also unstable with TTM net margin ~-3.8%, making the capital structure a key constraint despite better cash generation.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled meaningfully (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up ~55% vs. the prior annual period), and operating profitability looks solid with healthy gross margin (~37%) and EBITDA margin (~29%) in TTM. However, bottom-line results are unstable: the company swung from a profit in 2023 to losses in 2024 and again in 2025 (TTM net margin ~-3.8%). The mix of strong operating margins but negative net income suggests meaningful non-operating/financing or other below-the-line pressure that is weighing on shareholders.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Balance-sheet risk is elevated. Total debt is very high (~$1.49B TTM; higher in recent annual periods), while stockholders’ equity is negative in the last three periods (2024–TTM), which materially weakens the capital structure and reduces financial flexibility. With negative equity, leverage indicators are inherently unfavorable, and the company is more exposed to refinancing risk and earnings volatility despite a sizeable asset base (~$3.27B TTM).18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot. Operating cash flow is consistently positive (TTM ~$151M), and free cash flow is also positive in TTM (~$43M) after being negative in 2024—showing a notable improvement in cash discipline. That said, cash conversion is not fully reassuring: operating cash flow is below EBITDA in TTM, and with net losses in TTM the business still needs continued operating stability to keep funding debt obligations and reinvestment without increasing leverage.61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.24B | 1.20B | 1.15B | 1.06B | 911.71M | 395.23M |
| Gross Profit | 410.00M | 447.08M | 314.18M | 342.41M | 301.73M | 20.98M |
| EBITDA | 334.69M | 394.71M | 211.42M | 218.06M | 170.79M | 53.21M |
| Net Income | -87.88M | -10.02M | -83.58M | 82.05M | -29.93M | -126.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.84B | 1.85B | 1.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.91M | 59.69M | 66.97M | 195.63M | 132.24M | 187.09M |
| Total Debt | 3.82B | 2.63B | 2.41B | 2.26B | 1.27B | 1.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.50B | 3.33B | 3.16B | 2.54B | 1.66B | 1.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | -233.02M | -171.35M | -49.85M | 299.55M | 192.32M | 330.12M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.87M | 36.16M | -39.75M | 68.25M | 12.87M | 15.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 150.73M | 177.22M | 154.83M | 217.79M | 177.67M | 58.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -441.24M | -220.31M | -385.66M | -253.22M | -220.34M | -46.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 305.09M | 35.86M | 102.16M | 98.96M | -12.14M | 34.80M |
Lucky Strike Entertainment Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.52
Price Trends
8.51
Positive
8.56
Negative
9.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Negative
56.98
Neutral
94.35
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUCK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.92, above the 50-day MA of 8.51, and below the 200-day MA of 9.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LUCK.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.74B | 25.72 | 21.77% | ― | 1.56% | -17.21% | |
70 Outperform | $2.38B | 33.84 | 13.53% | 0.79% | 7.27% | 45.12% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $1.78B | -33.83 | ― | ― | -8.74% | 74.66% | |
52 Neutral | $401.27M | -5.13 | ― | ― | -3.55% | -111.90% | |
47 Neutral | $1.13B | -12.53 | ― | 2.51% | 3.88% | 34.36% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LUCK
Lucky Strike Entertainment
8.52
-2.20
-20.52%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
49.43
12.31
33.16%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
22.26
-0.52
-2.28%
PTON
Peloton Interactive
4.32
-5.47
-55.87%
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
8.44
-8.71
-50.79%
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Lucky Strike schedules Q2 fiscal results webcast
Neutral
Feb 4, 2026
Lucky Strike Entertainment, an operator in the entertainment sector offering experiential venues that combine bowling, dining, and events, continues to target urban lifestyle consumers seeking premium social experiences. On February 4, 2026, the company announced it would host a webcast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern to review financial results for the fiscal second quarter ended December 28, 2025, signaling forthcoming disclosure that could refine stakeholders’ understanding of recent performance and guide expectations for near-term strategy.
The most recent analyst rating on (LUCK) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucky Strike Entertainment stock, see the LUCK Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Lucky Strike’s 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting Updates
Neutral
Dec 11, 2025
On December 9, 2025, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. During the meeting, stockholders elected several nominees to the Board of Directors for a term lasting until the next annual meeting. Additionally, the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending June 28, 2026, was ratified.
The most recent analyst rating on (LUCK) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucky Strike Entertainment stock, see the LUCK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.