Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
NYSE:LUCK
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Lucky Strike Entertainment
(NYSE:LUCK)
Select Model
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-11.11% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by financial risk—especially very high leverage and negative equity alongside ongoing net losses—despite strong top-line growth and decent operating margins. The earnings call adds support via continued EBITDA guidance, cost/AI efficiency progress, and lower CapEx targeting better cash generation, but technicals remain mixed with negative MACD and price below longer-term moving averages. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~20.3) with a moderate dividend yield (~2.79%), but not enough to offset balance-sheet risk.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and healthy operating margins
Sustained top-line growth and high operating/EBITDA margins indicate the venue-based entertainment model scales well with added F&B and events. These durable unit economics support cash generation potential and operational resilience across economic cycles if traffic trends normalize.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and negative equity
A capital structure with near-equal debt to assets and negative equity creates persistent refinancing and covenant risk. This materially limits strategic flexibility, raises cost of capital, and makes the company sensitive to cash flow volatility and higher interest rates over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and healthy operating margins
Sustained top-line growth and high operating/EBITDA margins indicate the venue-based entertainment model scales well with added F&B and events. These durable unit economics support cash generation potential and operational resilience across economic cycles if traffic trends normalize.
Read all positive factors
Lucky Strike Entertainment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where Lucky Strike earns its money across different business lines (for example, food & beverage, entertainment/events, franchising/licensing). Highlights which segments drive growth and margins, exposes seasonality or concentration risk, and shows where management is investing or facing competitive pressure.
Breaks down where Lucky Strike earns its money across different business lines (for example, food & beverage, entertainment/events, franchising/licensing). Highlights which segments drive growth and margins, exposes seasonality or concentration risk, and shows where management is investing or facing competitive pressure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.35B
Dividend Yield2.51%
Average Volume (3M)249.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth4.94%
EPS Growth-960.10%
CountryUS
Employees11,374
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.65
Shares Outstanding78,102,750
10 Day Avg. Volume437,260
30 Day Avg. Volume249,232
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.62
Price to Book (P/B)-7.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio35.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.20Price Target Upside-8.89% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.25B
Lucky Strike Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation provides location-based entertainment platforms under the AMF, Bowlero, Lucky X Strike, Boomers, and PBA brand names in North America. It also operates bowling, amusements, water parks, and family entertainme...
How the Company Makes Money
Lucky Strike Entertainment generates revenue primarily through (1) amusement and entertainment fees charged to guests for bowling and any other paid in-venue attractions/activities offered at its locations, (2) food and beverage sales from on-site...
Lucky Strike Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational progress (notably AI-driven efficiencies, labor reductions, brand conversions, CapEx discipline and a clear free cash flow per share target) and maintained positive guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. These positives are tempered by significant near-term headwinds driven by extreme weather, regional gasoline shocks and geopolitical uncertainty that depressed March results (notably in West Coast markets) and temporarily softened corporate events and waterpark early contributions. Management emphasized that many negatives are transitory and that cost actions and AI initiatives should drive durable margin and cash flow improvement.Positive Updates
Positive Same-Store Sales Momentum
Second consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales comp at +0.2%, the first back-to-back positive comps since 2024; January comp was strong at +5.5% and company-wide ex-West Coast comp was +1.9% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Severe Weather and Geopolitical Disruption Impact
Two major winter storms (Fern and Hernando) and a large-scale Middle East military action disrupted momentum: storms and other events cost approximately 250 basis points of comp in the quarter; March same-store sales fell -7% (February +1%, March -7%).
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive Same-Store Sales Momentum
Second consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales comp at +0.2%, the first back-to-back positive comps since 2024; January comp was strong at +5.5% and company-wide ex-West Coast comp was +1.9% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 management updated guidance to total revenue growth of +4% to +5%, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $345–$350 million and gross capital expenditures of about $120 million (management also cited a $110–$120M range), noting CapEx is down roughly $30 million year‑over‑year and down ~20% YTD ($91M vs. $114M). They reiterated a free‑cash‑flow‑per‑share goal (trailing‑12‑month EBITDA less CapEx / shares) to reach at least $2.00 from $1.53 today (≈33% increase) over the next 12 months while keeping net debt flat and pursuing opportunistic buybacks, and expect materially better cash conversion exiting the year. Cost actions are already producing savings—more than $6M of annualized headcount reductions, ~97,000 center labor hours saved over the last 12 weeks (≈16% reduction from January peak), Orca AI delivering >$2M annualized from closeout‑time reductions and a further high‑teens to mid‑$20M annual savings opportunity from clock‑in optimization. They also noted brand conversion progress (~115 Lucky Strike conversions of a 225‑site target at ≈$150k each) and that the waterpark portfolio should contribute ≈$18M incremental EBITDA this summer (about 80% of that in the September quarter, i.e., fiscal 2027).Lucky Strike Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
47
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.24B | 1.20B | 1.15B | 1.06B | 911.71M | 395.23M |
| Gross Profit | 368.68M | 447.08M | 314.18M | 342.41M | 301.73M | 20.98M |
| EBITDA | 312.59M | 394.71M | 211.42M | 218.06M | 170.79M | 53.21M |
| Net Income | -84.32M | -10.02M | -83.58M | 82.05M | -29.93M | -126.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.84B | 1.85B | 1.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.65M | 59.69M | 66.97M | 195.63M | 132.24M | 187.09M |
| Total Debt | 3.24B | 2.63B | 2.41B | 2.26B | 1.27B | 1.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.49B | 3.33B | 3.16B | 2.54B | 1.66B | 1.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | -228.35M | -171.35M | -49.85M | 299.55M | 192.32M | 330.12M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.65M | 36.16M | -39.75M | 68.25M | 12.87M | 15.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 138.31M | 177.22M | 154.83M | 217.79M | 177.67M | 58.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -483.58M | -220.31M | -385.66M | -253.22M | -220.34M | -46.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 324.24M | 35.86M | 102.16M | 98.96M | -12.14M | 34.80M |
Lucky Strike Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
9.00
Price Trends
8.13
Positive
8.23
Positive
8.65
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
61.25
Neutral
88.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUCK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.93, above the 50-day MA of 8.13, and above the 200-day MA of 8.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUCK.
Lucky Strike Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.42B | 27.43 | 14.09% | 0.79% | 9.47% | 18.45% | |
71 Outperform | $3.38B | 69.50 | 22.54% | ― | 3.16% | -4.60% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $2.24B | 17.11 | -6.18% | ― | -3.26% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $1.35B | 16.08 | 46.90% | 2.51% | 4.94% | -960.10% | |
42 Neutral | $243.22M | -77.46 | 14.36% | ― | -5.80% | 32.11% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LUCK
Lucky Strike Entertainment
8.87
-0.08
-0.93%
YETI
Yeti Holdings
43.99
14.50
49.17%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
24.12
5.78
31.54%
PTON
Peloton Interactive
5.18
-2.39
-31.57%
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
5.58
-2.82
-33.57%
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Lucky Strike Entertainment Reports Mixed Q3 2026 Performance
Neutral
May 6, 2026
Lucky Strike Entertainment reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with revenue edging up 0.7% year on year to $342.2 million and same-store sales rising 0.2%, while net income improved to $16.9 million but adjusted EBITDA decli...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lucky Strike Consolidates Leadership as CEO Becomes President
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation announced that President Lev Ekster resigned and will be succeeded by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Shannon, who will now also serve as president. The leadership change con...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.