Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $983.12B
• Dividend Yield: 0.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 45.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 45.41%
• EPS Growth: 120.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
• EPS (TTM): 7.54
• Shares Outstanding: 943,357,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,881,444
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,243,941
• PEG Ratio: 0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 36.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 107.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 36.01
• 1Y Price Target: $1,261.00
• Price Target Upside: 22.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21
• EPS Forecast (FY): 34.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $81.01B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $1,127.00 ▲(9.54% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

The score is driven primarily by outstanding financial momentum and a very strong earnings outlook (2026 guidance and pipeline/product execution). This is tempered by uneven cash-flow conversion and leverage on the financial side, plus a demanding valuation and weaker near-term technical momentum.

Positive Factors

Rapid Revenue & Margin Expansion

Eli Lilly delivered sustained, product-driven revenue growth from ~$34.1B (2023) to ~$65.2B (2025) alongside materially higher gross and net margins. Those durable improvements reflect strong pricing/volume mix and scalable operating leverage, supporting reinvestment and durable cash earning power.

Market Leadership in Incretins/Obesity

Leading prescription share across diabetes and obesity franchises indicates durable clinical adoption and preferred positioning with prescribers and payors. High new-script share creates persistent volume tailwinds and a competitive moat that supports recurring revenue as obesity/incretin markets structurally expand.

Manufacturing Scale & Capacity Build-out

Large, accelerated capital investment and successful scale-up reduce supply constraints and support global launch cadence. Owning expanded capacity improves reliability, lowers per-unit costs over time, and enables faster international rollouts—sustaining revenue growth and margin resilience.

Negative Factors

Meaningful Leverage

Elevated net debt versus equity leaves the company with less financial flexibility and greater sensitivity to interest-rate moves. While returns on equity are high, the capital structure can amplify earnings volatility and constrain opportunistic investment or buybacks during downturns.

Uneven Cash-Flow Conversion

Cash generation improved but remains inconsistent, with FCF at roughly half of net income and historical negative years. Working-capital swings and elevated capex/R&D absorb cash, which can limit self-funding for launches, M&A, or shareholder returns if earnings face pressure.

Structural Price & Access Pressure

Policy-driven access deals and government pricing expectations create a durable headwind to realized prices even as volumes rise. Lower net prices from Medicare/Medicaid agreements and public programs will compress realized revenue per unit and require sustained volume and cost discipline to preserve margins.

Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Eli Lilly generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which are distributed to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies globally. The company's key revenue streams include sales from branded medications, which account for a significant portion of its income, particularly in diabetes and cancer treatment segments. Additionally, Eli Lilly engages in collaboration and partnership agreements with other pharmaceutical companies and research organizations, allowing it to share the costs and risks associated with drug development. These partnerships often lead to co-marketing arrangements or royalties from the sale of co-developed products. The company also invests in research and development to create new therapies, which, once approved, can significantly boost revenue through market exclusivity and patent protections, contributing to its overall earnings growth.

Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exceptional income-statement momentum with rapid revenue growth and sharply expanding margins, partially offset by meaningful leverage (debt still > equity) and a less consistent multi-year cash-flow conversion profile (FCF volatility and ~53% of net income in 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated sharply, rising from ~$34.1B (2023) to ~$45.0B (2024) and then to ~$65.2B (2025). Profitability also strengthened meaningfully, with gross margin expanding to ~83.8% (2025) and net margin improving to ~31.7% (2025) from ~23.5% (2024) and ~15.4% (2023). Operating profitability is very strong with EBIT margin at ~40.5% (2025). The main watch-out is that the pace of improvement is unusually steep, which can create higher expectations and sensitivity if growth normalizes.

Balance Sheet

Equity increased materially to ~$26.5B (2025) from ~$14.2B (2024), helping leverage improve versus the prior year. That said, leverage remains meaningful with total debt at ~$42.5B (2025) and debt still higher than equity (debt-to-equity ~1.60 in 2025). Returns on equity are exceptionally high (~77.8% in 2025), reflecting very strong profitability but also indicating the capital structure is still fairly leveraged, which can amplify volatility in down cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved substantially in 2025 with operating cash flow rising to ~$16.8B (from ~$8.8B in 2024) and free cash flow rebounding to ~$9.0B (from ~$0.4B in 2024). However, cash conversion has been uneven: free cash flow was negative in 2023 and, even in 2025, free cash flow is only about ~53% of net income, suggesting working-capital swings and/or higher investment spending are still absorbing cash. Overall cash flow is improving, but the track record over the last few years is less stable than earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	65.18B	45.04B	34.12B	28.54B	28.32B
Gross Profit	54.62B	36.62B	27.04B	21.91B	21.01B
EBITDA	27.94B	15.23B	8.57B	8.66B	8.04B
Net Income	20.64B	10.59B	5.24B	6.24B	5.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	112.48B	78.71B	64.01B	49.49B	48.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.27B	3.42B	2.93B	2.21B	3.91B
Total Debt	42.50B	33.64B	25.23B	16.24B	16.88B
Total Liabilities	85.94B	64.44B	53.14B	38.71B	39.65B
Stockholders Equity	26.54B	14.19B	10.77B	10.65B	8.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.97B	414.30M	-3.15B	4.60B	5.39B
Operating Cash Flow	16.81B	8.82B	4.24B	7.59B	7.37B
Investing Cash Flow	-10.97B	-9.30B	-7.15B	-3.76B	-2.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.21B	1.23B	3.50B	-5.41B	-4.13B

Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1028.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1028.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1034.01, below the 50-day MA of 1051.93, and above the 200-day MA of 868.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LLY.

Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MRK	78 Outperform	$307.60B	17.02	―	3.12%	1.59%	58.02%
NVS	77 Outperform	$319.87B	23.05	31.14%	2.87%	11.53%	-15.21%
JNJ	73 Outperform	$593.51B	22.32	35.03%	2.50%	6.05%	―
AZN	73 Outperform	£237.63B	30.62	22.34%	1.53%	10.20%	40.57%
LLY	72 Outperform	$983.12B	45.41	101.35%	0.58%	45.41%	120.94%
ABBV	60 Neutral	$403.92B	96.76	9999.00%	2.87%	7.40%	-53.78%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events

Eli Lilly Announces New Board Member Election

On November 18, 2025, Eli Lilly & Co announced the election of Dr. Carolyn R. Bertozzi to its Board of Directors, effective December 8, 2025. Dr. Bertozzi, a distinguished professor at Stanford University, will serve on the Science and Technology Committee and the Ethics and Compliance Committee, and her appointment underscores Eli Lilly’s commitment to scientific excellence and ethical governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (LLY) stock is a Buy with a $1182.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Eli Lilly & Co stock, see the LLY Stock Forecast page.