Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $725.92B
• Dividend Yield: 0.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 63.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 36.38%
• EPS Growth: 80.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 38
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
• EPS (TTM): 3.34
• Shares Outstanding: 947,735,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,899,408
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,204,933
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 47.88
• 1Y Price Target: $1,016.69
• Price Target Upside: 32.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $835.00 ▲(9.01% Upside)

Eli Lilly's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and a positive outlook from its recent earnings call, driven by significant product contributions and strategic investments. However, the high valuation and mixed technical signals suggest caution. The company's high leverage and potential regulatory hurdles also warrant careful monitoring.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Success

Mounjaro was associated with a 16% lower rate of all-cause death compared to Trulicity, suggesting more comprehensive health benefits.

Financial Performance

The overall setup for LLY shares looks very favorable due to expected strong 2Q results and high probability clinical catalysts.

Growth Potential

There is room for upside in LLY stock due to persistent strength in Zepbound and Mounjaro growth from their more competitive efficacy and safety profile compared to semaglutide.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Challenges

Regarding safety, 13.3% of patients on Mounjaro discontinued treatment due to side effects, slightly higher than the 10.2% with Trulicity.

Market Sentiment

The recent weakness in LLY shares following Novo’s guidance cut was viewed as unjustified.

Statistical Significance

Mounjaro achieved non-inferiority to Trulicity, with an 8% reduction in risk of MACE vs Trulicity, however falling short of statistical significance, with a p-value of only 0.086.

Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. The company focuses on the discovery, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. Eli Lilly is renowned for its work in the fields of endocrinology, oncology, neuroscience, and immunology, with prominent products including insulin, cancer therapies, and treatments for mental health disorders.

How the Company Makes Money

Eli Lilly & Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products. Key revenue streams include sales of diabetes medications, such as Humalog and Trulicity, cancer treatments like Verzenio, and immunology drugs such as Taltz. The company invests heavily in research and development to bring new drugs to market, which can lead to significant revenue growth from successful product launches. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations with other biotech firms and research institutions help Eli Lilly expand its product pipeline and market reach. The company's earnings are also influenced by patent protections, regulatory approvals, and market exclusivity periods, which allow them to capitalize on new innovations.

Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Eli Lilly & Co shows strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, robust margins, and high ROE. The company effectively manages cash flows with improvements in free cash flow. However, high leverage and a low equity ratio suggest careful monitoring of financial obligations.

Income Statement

Eli Lilly & Co has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase in Total Revenue from $45.04B to $49.00B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), representing a growth rate of 8.77%. Gross Profit Margin is robust at 81.69%, and Net Profit Margin has improved to 22.67%. The EBIT Margin is healthy at 41.17%, and EBITDA Margin stands at 36.35%. Overall, the income statement reflects strong profitability and growth trends, positioning the company well within its industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.44, indicating a higher leverage position which poses some risk. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 70.48%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is relatively low at 17.64%, suggesting limited equity financing. While profitability metrics are strong, the high leverage warrants cautious monitoring.

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow has grown significantly to $1.21B TTM, a notable improvement from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.84, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.11, highlighting room for improvement in converting income to free cash. Overall, cash flow metrics are solid, with positive growth trends in free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.04B	34.12B	28.54B	28.32B	24.54B
Gross Profit	36.62B	27.04B	21.91B	21.01B	19.06B
EBITDA	15.23B	8.57B	8.66B	8.04B	8.91B
Net Income	10.59B	5.24B	6.24B	5.58B	6.19B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	78.71B	64.01B	49.49B	48.81B	46.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.42B	2.93B	2.21B	3.91B	3.68B
Total Debt	33.64B	25.23B	16.24B	16.88B	16.60B
Total Liabilities	64.44B	53.14B	38.71B	39.65B	40.81B
Stockholders Equity	14.19B	10.77B	10.65B	8.98B	5.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	414.30M	-3.15B	4.60B	5.39B	4.47B
Operating Cash Flow	8.82B	4.24B	7.59B	7.37B	6.50B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.30B	-7.15B	-3.76B	-2.87B	-2.26B
Financing Cash Flow	1.23B	3.50B	-5.41B	-4.13B	-3.14B

Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 765.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 765.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 779.44, below the 50-day MA of 775.03, and below the 200-day MA of 801.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LLY.

Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AZN	79 Outperform	$231.36B	27.79	19.76%	2.08%	15.17%	29.15%
MRK	79 Outperform	$202.87B	12.46	35.44%	4.04%	2.01%	―
JNJ	78 Outperform	$411.20B	18.26	30.21%	2.94%	4.69%	34.88%
NVO	76 Outperform	$212.12B	13.98	75.95%	3.34%	22.74%	16.36%
ABBV	73 Outperform	$350.75B	94.49	112.90%	3.31%	6.05%	―
LLY	69 Neutral	$725.92B	63.70	77.73%	0.73%	36.38%	80.73%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.39B	0.42	-62.86%	2.37%	15.61%	-1.93%

Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events

Eli Lilly & Co Shareholders Vote on Key Issues

At the 2025 Annual Meeting held on May 5, Eli Lilly & Co shareholders voted on several key issues. Four directors were elected for three-year terms, executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, proposals to amend the Articles of Incorporation to eliminate the classified board structure and supermajority voting provisions did not pass.