Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $658.10B
• Dividend Yield: 0.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 47.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 36.83%
• EPS Growth: 88.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - General
• EPS (TTM): 6.31
• Shares Outstanding: 946,456,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,306,748
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,700,318
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 13.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 37.53
• 1Y Price Target: $919.35
• Price Target Upside: 24.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $762.00 ▲(3.53% Upside)

Eli Lilly & Co's strong earnings call performance and robust revenue growth are the most significant factors driving the score. However, the high valuation and bearish technical indicators temper the overall outlook. Financial performance is solid but hampered by high leverage and declining cash flow.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Success

Lilly announced positive topline results from the Phase III ATTAIN-2 trial of orforglipron in adults with obesity/overweight and T2D.

Financial Performance

Lilly reported a substantial beat on the topline and EPS, and importantly raised the full year guide.

Market Forecast

Daily oral pills are forecasted to capture a 24% share of the anti-obesity medication market by 2030, with orforglipron projected to secure 60% of this segment.

Negative Factors

Adverse Reactions

Long-term GI side effect rates were higher in the OFG Ph3 T2DM trial compared to tirzepatide Ph3 T2DM, which could increase real-world churn risk if patients experience persistent nausea/vomiting and discontinue or switch to other therapies.

Market Competition

Competitive threats are rising as LLY’s major competitor NVO may need to continue using price strategies to compete, and growing competition from various competitors is expected starting late decade.

Stock Market Reaction

The stock selloff is implying that orforglipron is an impaired asset, which is seen as an overreaction.

Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global healthcare leader based in Indianapolis, Indiana, that focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The company operates in several sectors, including diabetes care, oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and pain management. Eli Lilly's core products include insulin therapies, cancer treatments, and medications for various chronic and acute conditions, including depression and autoimmune disorders.

How the Company Makes Money

Eli Lilly generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which include both branded and generic medications. The company has a diversified portfolio with significant revenue contributions from its diabetes drugs, such as Trulicity and Humalog, and oncology treatments, including Verzenio and Taltz. Additionally, Eli Lilly benefits from revenue generated through partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which may include co-development agreements, licensing deals, and joint ventures. The company also invests in research and development to innovate new therapies and expand its product lineup, further enhancing its revenue streams.

Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Eli Lilly & Co demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, robust margins, and a high ROE. The company effectively manages cash flows, with notable improvements in free cash flow. However, the high leverage and relatively low equity ratio suggest careful monitoring of financial obligations.

Income Statement

Eli Lilly & Co has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase in Total Revenue from $45.04B to $49.00B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), representing a growth rate of 8.77%. Gross Profit Margin is robust at 81.69%, and Net Profit Margin has improved to 22.67%. The EBIT Margin is healthy at 41.17%, and EBITDA Margin stands at 36.35%. Overall, the income statement reflects strong profitability and growth trends, positioning the company well within its industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.44, indicating a higher leverage position which poses some risk. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 70.48%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is relatively low at 17.64%, suggesting limited equity financing. While profitability metrics are strong, the high leverage warrants cautious monitoring.

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow has grown significantly to $1.21B TTM, a notable improvement from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.84, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.11, highlighting room for improvement in converting income to free cash. Overall, cash flow metrics are solid, with positive growth trends in free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.26B	45.04B	34.12B	28.54B	28.32B	24.54B
Gross Profit	44.01B	36.62B	27.04B	21.91B	21.01B	19.06B
EBITDA	19.66B	15.23B	8.57B	8.66B	8.04B	8.91B
Net Income	13.80B	10.59B	5.24B	6.24B	5.58B	6.19B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	100.92B	78.71B	64.01B	49.49B	48.81B	46.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.55B	3.42B	2.93B	2.21B	3.91B	3.68B
Total Debt	39.90B	33.64B	25.23B	16.24B	16.88B	16.60B
Total Liabilities	82.57B	64.44B	53.14B	38.71B	39.65B	40.81B
Stockholders Equity	18.27B	14.19B	10.77B	10.65B	8.98B	5.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-50.20M	414.30M	-3.15B	4.60B	5.39B	4.47B
Operating Cash Flow	10.94B	8.82B	4.24B	7.59B	7.37B	6.50B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.11B	-9.30B	-7.15B	-3.76B	-2.87B	-2.26B
Financing Cash Flow	120.70M	1.23B	3.50B	-5.41B	-4.13B	-3.14B

Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 736.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 736.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 702.40, below the 50-day MA of 749.29, and below the 200-day MA of 785.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -9.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LLY.

Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MRK	81 Outperform	$212.29B	13.15	35.44%	3.81%	2.00%	20.01%
AZN	79 Outperform	$247.91B	29.68	19.76%	1.96%	15.08%	29.15%
NVS	78 Outperform	$239.54B	18.27	32.82%	3.15%	12.38%	-12.67%
JNJ	78 Outperform	$425.05B	19.08	30.21%	2.87%	4.69%	34.88%
ABBV	75 Outperform	$368.08B	98.77	112.90%	3.11%	6.05%	-29.75%
LLY	67 Neutral	$658.10B	47.19	86.70%	0.79%	36.83%	88.21%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.83B	-0.15	-40.10%	2.29%	21.46%	-2.01%

Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events

Eli Lilly & Co Completes $6.71 Billion Notes Issuance

On August 18, 2025, Eli Lilly & Co entered into an underwriting agreement with several financial institutions for the issuance and sale of various notes, including both floating and fixed rate notes, totaling approximately $6.71 billion in net proceeds. This financial maneuver, completed on August 20, 2025, is expected to strengthen the company’s financial position and potentially impact its strategic operations and market presence.