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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)
NYSE:LLY

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis

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LLY

Eli Lilly & Co

(NYSE:LLY)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$1,107.00
â–²(3.32% Upside)
Eli Lilly's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's high leverage and cash flow challenges are notable risks. Technical analysis and valuation suggest caution, while the recent board appointment is a positive corporate event.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Eli Lilly's products, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term financial stability.
Manufacturing Expansion
Expanding manufacturing capabilities will support product demand and innovation, ensuring Eli Lilly can scale operations and meet future market needs.
FDA and EU Approvals
Regulatory approvals enhance Eli Lilly's product portfolio, providing competitive advantages and potential for increased market share in key therapeutic areas.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Eli Lilly's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Declining Cash Flow
Declining cash flow may hinder Eli Lilly's ability to fund operations and investments, posing challenges for long-term financial health.
Increased Expenses
Rising expenses can pressure margins and profitability, potentially affecting Eli Lilly's ability to maintain competitive pricing and invest in innovation.

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyEli Lilly generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which are distributed to healthcare providers, hospitals, and pharmacies globally. The company's key revenue streams include sales from branded medications, which account for a significant portion of its income, particularly in diabetes and cancer treatment segments. Additionally, Eli Lilly engages in collaboration and partnership agreements with other pharmaceutical companies and research organizations, allowing it to share the costs and risks associated with drug development. These partnerships often lead to co-marketing arrangements or royalties from the sale of co-developed products. The company also invests in research and development to create new therapies, which, once approved, can significantly boost revenue through market exclusivity and patent protections, contributing to its overall earnings growth.

Eli Lilly & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Eli Lilly & Co is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsEli Lilly's revenue growth is notably strong in the United States and Europe, with the U.S. seeing a remarkable surge, driven by key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound. The earnings call highlights a 45% revenue increase in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, underscoring the impact of these products. However, regulatory challenges and pricing pressures in the U.S. and Europe pose potential risks. Despite these hurdles, the company's strategic investments in manufacturing and a robust product pipeline suggest continued growth potential.
Data provided by:The Fly

Eli Lilly & Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong quarter with significant revenue growth, increased market share, and notable FDA and EU approvals. However, the company faced challenges with price declines in the U.S. and increased expenses. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment is positive due to the strong financial performance and strategic advancements.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 54% compared to the same period last year, driven by key products. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue was 83.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points versus the same quarter last year.
Increased Market Share in Incretin Analogs
In the U.S., Lilly gained market share in the incretin analogs market for the fifth consecutive quarter. Lilly medicines account for nearly 6 out of 10 prescriptions within this large and growing class.
FDA and EU Approvals
U.S. FDA approval for imlunestrant under the brand name Inluriyo for ER+, HER2-, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer. The EU approved Kisunla for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.
Strong International Performance
Revenue in Europe increased by over 100% in constant currency, and Japan, China, and the Rest of the World delivered constant currency revenue growth of 24%, 22%, and 51%, respectively.
R&D Advancements
Positive results from multiple Phase III trials for orforglipron in obesity and type 2 diabetes. Plans to initiate 2 Phase III trials with baricitinib in type 1 diabetes.
Manufacturing Expansion
Plans to build 2 new U.S. facilities for active pharmaceutical ingredients and the expansion of an existing facility in Puerto Rico.
Negative Updates
Price Decline in the U.S.
U.S. revenue was partially offset by a 15% decline in price. Price was negatively impacted by a favorable one-time adjustment to estimates for rebates and discounts in Q3 2024.
Increased Expenses
Research and development expenses increased 27% driven by continued investments in the portfolio. Marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased 31%.
Challenges with CVS Formulary Change
While the impact of the CVS template formulary change was disruptive, the impact on Zepbound performance was modest.
Company Guidance
During Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 54% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year, driven by significant growth in key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound. Lilly gained substantial market share in the incretin analogs market, accounting for nearly 60% of prescriptions in the U.S. The company highlighted its strong financial performance by raising its revenue and earnings per share guidance, with EPS reaching $7.02, a notable increase from $1.18 in Q3 2024. The call also underscored Lilly's progress in its pipeline, including U.S. FDA approval for Inluriyo and positive results from various clinical trials. Moreover, the company announced plans to expand its manufacturing facilities to support its growing portfolio and reported distributing $1.3 billion in dividends and executing $700 million in share repurchases during the quarter.

Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Eli Lilly & Co demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by high margins and effective equity utilization. However, the high leverage and declining cash flow metrics highlight potential risks. Overall, the company maintains a solid financial position with areas for improvement in cash flow management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Eli Lilly & Co has demonstrated strong revenue growth with an 11.57% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 82.64% and 25.91%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 33.37% and 36.92%, indicating efficient operations. The consistent growth trajectory and high profitability margins reflect a solid financial performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.18, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. However, the return on equity is impressive at 88.36%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Eli Lilly & Co's cash flow performance shows a decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative rate of -18069.52% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.28, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating potential challenges in cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue59.42B45.04B34.12B28.54B28.32B24.54B
Gross Profit49.34B36.62B27.04B21.91B21.01B19.06B
EBITDA25.30B15.23B8.57B8.66B8.04B8.91B
Net Income18.41B10.59B5.24B6.24B5.58B6.19B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets114.94B78.71B64.01B49.49B48.81B46.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.91B3.42B2.93B2.21B3.91B3.68B
Total Debt42.51B33.64B25.23B16.24B16.88B16.60B
Total Liabilities91.08B64.44B53.14B38.71B39.65B40.81B
Stockholders Equity23.79B14.19B10.77B10.65B8.98B5.64B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow9.02B414.30M-3.15B4.60B5.39B4.47B
Operating Cash Flow16.06B8.82B4.24B7.59B7.37B6.50B
Investing Cash Flow-10.09B-9.30B-7.15B-3.76B-2.87B-2.26B
Financing Cash Flow440.40M1.23B3.50B-5.41B-4.13B-3.14B

Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1071.44
Price Trends
50DMA
955.05
Positive
100DMA
847.45
Positive
200DMA
815.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
22.99
Positive
RSI
63.89
Neutral
STOCH
80.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1071.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1043.95, above the 50-day MA of 955.05, and above the 200-day MA of 815.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 22.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LLY.

Eli Lilly & Co Risk Analysis

Eli Lilly & Co disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eli Lilly & Co reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$250.91B13.3739.51%3.24%1.59%58.02%
80
Outperform
$257.99B18.4332.93%2.94%11.53%-15.21%
79
Outperform
$281.78B30.1021.73%1.71%12.95%44.28%
78
Outperform
$497.21B19.9233.62%2.49%5.08%71.07%
72
Outperform
$1.01T52.9996.82%0.61%45.41%120.94%
66
Neutral
$400.88B171.15138.53%2.89%7.40%-53.78%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
1,071.44
281.06
35.56%
AZN
AstraZeneca
91.36
26.10
39.99%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
206.37
65.41
46.40%
MRK
Merck & Company
101.09
5.32
5.55%
NVS
Novartis
136.06
40.51
42.40%
ABBV
AbbVie
226.82
54.46
31.60%

Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Eli Lilly Announces New Board Member Election
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Eli Lilly & Co announced the election of Dr. Carolyn R. Bertozzi to its Board of Directors, effective December 8, 2025. Dr. Bertozzi, a distinguished professor at Stanford University, will serve on the Science and Technology Committee and the Ethics and Compliance Committee, and her appointment underscores Eli Lilly’s commitment to scientific excellence and ethical governance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025