Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)
NYSE:LLY
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Eli Lilly & Co
(NYSE:LLY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$1,034.00
▲(8.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by outstanding financial momentum and a very strong earnings outlook (2026 guidance and pipeline/product execution). This is tempered by uneven cash-flow conversion and leverage on the financial side, plus a demanding valuation and weaker near-term technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Accelerating Revenue and Profitability
Sustained, rapid top- and bottom-line expansion demonstrates durable commercial strength and scalable margins. Robust 2025 revenue and EPS gains reflect broad product adoption and successful launches, creating a higher baseline for 2026 guidance and multi-year cash generation potential.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Financial Leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio above 1.5 constrains financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk over multi-month horizons. Elevated leverage can amplify earnings volatility during adverse cycles and limit optionality for large incremental investments or aggressive buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Accelerating Revenue and Profitability
Sustained, rapid top- and bottom-line expansion demonstrates durable commercial strength and scalable margins. Robust 2025 revenue and EPS gains reflect broad product adoption and successful launches, creating a higher baseline for 2026 guidance and multi-year cash generation potential.
Read all positive factors
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$902.48B
Dividend Yield0.58%
Average Volume (3M)2.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.4
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth45.41%
EPS Growth120.94%
CountryUS
Employees47,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.54
Shares Outstanding944,818,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,714,219
30 Day Avg. Volume2,835,584
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.49
Price to Book (P/B)36.37
Price to Sales (P/S)14.81
P/FCF Ratio107.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,247.71Price Target Upside30.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)34.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$81.69B
Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 7...
How the Company Makes Money
Lilly makes money primarily by selling patented, branded prescription medicines. Revenue is generated when Lilly sells its drugs to wholesalers, pharmacies, hospitals, and other distributors (directly or through third parties), and those products ...
Eli Lilly & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Eli Lilly & Co is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Eli Lilly & Co is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEli Lilly & Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a strongly positive operational and financial picture: very large revenue and EPS growth, broad product and pipeline momentum (multiple Phase 3 successes and regulatory submissions), significant manufacturing scale-up, and a constructive 2026 guidance ($80–$83B revenue midpoint +25%). These positives are balanced by meaningful near-term headwinds including price erosion (US price decline ~7% in Q4 and price drag expected in the low-to-mid teens for 2026), higher R&D and commercial spend, some tolerability/discontinuation signals for specific programs, and temporary reimbursement/coverage reductions in Medicaid. On balance the company’s growth drivers, pipeline wins, commercial momentum, and capital allocation outweigh the challenges, but the business will need to manage price pressure and elevated investment levels as it scales.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue and Strong EPS Growth
Full-year 2025 revenue of $65.2 billion, up 45% vs 2024; full-year EPS grew 86% to $24.21, reflecting strong top-line and bottom-line performance.
Negative Updates
Price Pressure and Expected 2026 Drag
Lower realized prices were disclosed (US price decline ~7% in Q4) and management expects price to be a drag on 2026 growth in the low-to-mid teens due to government access agreements, direct-to-patient pricing updates, and lower Medicaid prices.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Revenue and Strong EPS Growth
Full-year 2025 revenue of $65.2 billion, up 45% vs 2024; full-year EPS grew 86% to $24.21, reflecting strong top-line and bottom-line performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lilly guided 2026 revenue of $80.0–$83.0 billion (midpoint ~+25% vs FY2025’s $65.2B), with non‑GAAP EPS of $33.50–$35.00 (vs $24.21 in 2025) and a non‑GAAP performance margin of 46.0%–47.5% (Q4 2025 was 47.2%); management expects industry‑leading volume growth to more than offset price headwinds (price a drag in the low‑ to mid‑teens) and anticipates gross margin to be relatively stable to slightly down versus Q4 2025 (Q4 gross margin was 83.2%). Key assumptions include material launch and access events (orforglipron submitted with U.S. approval expected in Q2 2026 and broader OUS launches in 2027), new Medicare obesity access effective no later than July 1, 2026, continued international reimbursement tailwinds (e.g., China NRDL), scaling R&D investment (36 active Phase III programs and higher R&D spend), and higher marketing/selling/admin spend to support launches—with management noting price concessions are expected to be more than offset by volume expansion over time.Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 65.18B | 45.04B | 34.12B | 28.54B | 28.32B |
| Gross Profit | 54.62B | 36.62B | 27.04B | 21.91B | 21.01B |
| EBITDA | 27.94B | 15.23B | 8.57B | 8.66B | 8.04B |
| Net Income | 20.64B | 10.59B | 5.24B | 6.24B | 5.58B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 112.48B | 78.71B | 64.01B | 49.49B | 48.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.27B | 3.42B | 2.93B | 2.21B | 3.91B |
| Total Debt | 42.50B | 33.64B | 25.23B | 16.24B | 16.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 85.94B | 64.44B | 53.14B | 38.71B | 39.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.54B | 14.19B | 10.77B | 10.65B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.97B | 414.30M | -3.15B | 4.60B | 5.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.81B | 8.82B | 4.24B | 7.59B | 7.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.97B | -9.30B | -7.15B | -3.76B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.21B | 1.23B | 3.50B | -5.41B | -4.13B |
Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis
Positive
955.19
Price Trends
987.18
Negative
1019.97
Negative
899.13
Positive
Market Momentum
-13.87
Negative
51.30
Neutral
69.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 955.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 929.62, below the 50-day MA of 987.18, and above the 200-day MA of 899.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -13.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LLY.
Eli Lilly & Co Risk Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eli Lilly & Co reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $282.16B | 19.02 | 32.80% | 2.87% | 11.53% | -15.21% | |
73 Outperform | $581.22B | 18.81 | 33.78% | 2.50% | 6.05% | ― | |
73 Outperform | £236.91B | 28.13 | 23.00% | 1.53% | 10.20% | 40.57% | |
72 Outperform | $902.48B | 36.36 | 97.85% | 0.58% | 45.41% | 120.94% | |
68 Neutral | $303.31B | 14.46 | 36.19% | 3.12% | 1.49% | 7.89% | |
63 Neutral | $375.69B | 96.82 | -361.58% | 2.87% | 7.40% | -53.78% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
955.19
228.16
31.38%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
241.31
93.69
63.47%
MRK
Merck & Company
122.68
46.28
60.57%
NVS
Novartis
155.06
49.61
47.04%
ABBV
AbbVie
212.40
43.03
25.41%
GB:AZN
AstraZeneca
15,276.00
5,439.44
55.30%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.