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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)
NYSE:LLY
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Eli Lilly & Co
(NYSE:LLY)
72Outperform
Positive Factors
Market Position
GLP-1s will likely remain the backbone for long-term weight maintenance, indicating a strong market position for Eli Lilly in this segment.
Product Development
Tirzepatide is being explored for its potential pleiotropic effects and combinations, which could enhance its therapeutic value.
Sales Growth
Compelling initial Phase 3 trial results led to an increase in orforglipron 2030 sales estimates by 50%.
Negative Factors
Formulary Decision
LLY shares declined 11.7% due to CVS Caremark’s action favoring Wegovy over Zepbound.
Price Target Reduction
The price target for Eli Lilly was lowered from $989 to $944, indicating reduced expectations for stock performance.
Safety Concerns
There are potential safety concerns with retatrutide, particularly regarding cardiac arrhythmias and excessive weight loss.
Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$734.61B
Dividend Yield0.73%
Average Volume (3M)4.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)68.0
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth36.38%
EPS Growth80.73%
CountryUS
Employees47,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength46
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.34
Shares Outstanding947,735,660
10 Day Avg. Volume4,397,562
30 Day Avg. Volume4,070,634
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.28
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$981.00Price Target Upside33.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEli Lilly & Co (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in human health. The company focuses on several key therapeutic areas, including diabetes, oncology, immunology, neurodegeneration, and pain management. With a robust portfolio of innovative medicines, Eli Lilly aims to improve patient outcomes and address unmet medical needs worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyEli Lilly & Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of pharmaceutical products. The company's revenue model is centered around developing and commercializing proprietary medications, which are either marketed directly by Eli Lilly or through partnerships and collaborations. Key revenue streams include sales from their flagship diabetes medications like Trulicity and Humalog, oncology treatments such as Verzenio, and other therapies across immunology and pain management. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations, including licensing agreements and joint ventures, contribute to the company's earnings. Factors such as regulatory approvals, patent protections, and market expansions also play a significant role in Eli Lilly's revenue generation.
Eli Lilly & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business unit or product line contributes, highlighting strengths and potential growth areas within the company’s diverse operations.
Shows how much revenue each business unit or product line contributes, highlighting strengths and potential growth areas within the company’s diverse operations.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataEli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Eli Lilly & Co exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, robust margins, and a high ROE. The company effectively manages cash flows, with notable improvements in free cash flow. However, the high leverage and relatively low equity ratio suggest careful monitoring of financial obligations. Overall, the company is well-positioned for continued growth, but should remain vigilant regarding its debt levels.Income Statement
Eli Lilly & Co has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase in Total Revenue from $45.04B to $49.00B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), representing a growth rate of 8.77%. Gross Profit Margin is robust at 81.69%, and Net Profit Margin has improved to 22.67%. The EBIT Margin is healthy at 41.17%, and EBITDA Margin stands at 36.35%. Overall, the income statement reflects strong profitability and growth trends, positioning the company well within its industry.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.44, indicating a higher leverage position which poses some risk. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 70.48%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is relatively low at 17.64%, suggesting limited equity financing. While profitability metrics are strong, the high leverage warrants cautious monitoring.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow has grown significantly to $1.21B TTM, a notable improvement from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.84, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.11, highlighting room for improvement in converting income to free cash. Overall, cash flow metrics are solid, with positive growth trends in free cash flow.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 45.04B | 34.12B | 28.54B | 28.32B | 24.54B | Gross Profit |
| 36.62B | 27.04B | 21.91B | 21.01B | 19.06B | EBIT |
| 17.50B | 10.33B | 7.13B | 6.36B | 6.06B | EBITDA |
| 15.23B | 8.57B | 8.66B | 8.04B | 8.91B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 10.59B | 5.24B | 6.24B | 5.58B | 6.19B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 3.42B | 2.93B | 2.21B | 3.91B | 3.68B | Total Assets |
| 78.71B | 64.01B | 49.49B | 48.81B | 46.63B | Total Debt |
| 33.64B | 25.23B | 16.24B | 16.88B | 16.60B | Net Debt |
| 30.38B | 22.41B | 14.17B | 13.07B | 12.94B | Total Liabilities |
| 64.44B | 53.14B | 38.71B | 39.65B | 40.81B | Stockholders Equity |
| 14.19B | 10.77B | 10.65B | 8.98B | 5.64B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 414.30M | -3.15B | 4.60B | 5.39B | 4.47B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 8.82B | 4.24B | 7.08B | 7.26B | 6.50B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -9.30B | -7.15B | -3.26B | -2.76B | -2.26B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.23B | 3.50B | -5.41B | -4.13B | -3.14B |
Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis
Negative
734.57
Price Trends
819.89
Negative
814.73
Negative
839.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-10.15
Positive
38.29
Neutral
4.44
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 734.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 808.83, below the 50-day MA of 819.89, and below the 200-day MA of 839.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LLY.
Eli Lilly & Co Risk Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eli Lilly & Co reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $297.66B | 21.02 | 87.53% | 1.80% | 22.74% | 16.36% | |
78 Outperform | $221.49B | 28.75 | 19.81% | 2.25% | 15.48% | 22.70% | |
76 Outperform | $198.47B | 12.06 | 39.31% | 4.16% | 4.40% | 654.93% | |
76 Outperform | $372.25B | 17.23 | 29.45% | 3.22% | -0.37% | 29.21% | |
72 Outperform | $734.61B | 68.05 | 77.73% | 0.73% | 36.38% | 80.73% | |
70 Outperform | $331.06B | 83.41 | 88.15% | 3.46% | 5.45% | -30.21% | |
52 Neutral | $5.15B | 3.56 | -42.52% | 2.83% | 14.56% | -0.53% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
734.57
-18.24
-2.42%
AZN
AstraZeneca
67.57
-8.33
-10.97%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
154.22
7.70
5.26%
MRK
Merck & Company
75.97
-49.60
-39.50%
NVO
Novo Nordisk
65.77
-64.79
-49.62%
ABBV
AbbVie
184.60
28.97
18.61%
Eli Lilly & Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -18.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented strong financial growth driven by key products, successful trial results, and significant investments in manufacturing. However, challenges remain with regulatory hurdles, potential tariff impacts, and market dynamics in the obesity segment. The balance of positive revenue growth and strategic investments against these challenges suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 45% compared to Q1 of 2024, driven by key products like Mounjaro and Zepbound, which contributed over $4 billion in growth and accounted for $7.5 billion of the company's revenue.
Phase 3 Orforglipron Trial Success
Orforglipron achieved significant results in its Phase 3 trial for Type 2 diabetes, with hemoglobin A1c reductions of 1.3% to 1.6% and weight loss of approximately 16 pounds or 7.9% body weight at the highest dose.
Manufacturing Investment Expansion
Lilly announced over $50 billion in new U.S. manufacturing investments since 2020, including plans to build four new facilities, three of which will be active pharmaceutical ingredient facilities.
Strong Performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound
Mounjaro sales were $3.8 billion, more than double the same quarter last year, and Zepbound sales increased by $1.8 billion to $2.3 billion, making it the U.S. market leader in anti-obesity prescriptions.
Strong Financial Performance Metrics
Gross margin increased to 83.5% in Q1, and the non-GAAP performance margin was 42.6%, an increase of over 11 percentage points from Q1 2024.
Negative Updates
U.S. Regulatory Challenges for Heart Failure Indication
Lilly withdrew its U.S. application for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction indication for Tirzepatide due to FDA indicating the need for an additional confirmatory clinical trial.
Potential Impact of Trade Tariffs
While current tariffs do not materially change Lilly's 2025 financial outlook, expansion of tariffs in other geographies could negatively affect the company and the broader industry.
Price Declines in Key Markets
In the U.S., there was a 7% price decline, while in Europe, constant currency revenue growth was partially offset by a 7% decline in price.
CVS Formulary Change Concerns
CVS announced a formulary change favoring Wegovy over Zepbound, raising investor concerns about the impact on market share and pricing dynamics in the obesity market.
Company Guidance
During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Eli Lilly & Company reported a robust financial performance with a 45% increase in revenue compared to Q1 2024, driven by key products like Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Verzenio. The company's gross margin was 83.5%, with marketing expenses increasing by 26% and R&D expenses by 8%. Lilly achieved several pipeline milestones, including the approval of Omvoh in the U.S., EU, and Japan. They also announced significant U.S. manufacturing investments exceeding $50 billion since 2020. Despite the impact of acquired IPR&D charges reducing earnings per share by $1.72, the company delivered an EPS of $3.34. Looking ahead, Lilly anticipates further clinical trial readouts for orforglipron and potential regulatory submissions for obesity treatments by year-end 2025, while maintaining a focus on expanding their product pipeline and manufacturing capabilities.Eli Lilly & Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Eli Lilly & Co Shareholders Vote on Key Issues
Neutral
May 8, 2025
At the 2025 Annual Meeting held on May 5, Eli Lilly & Co shareholders voted on several key issues. Four directors were elected for three-year terms, executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, proposals to amend the Articles of Incorporation to eliminate the classified board structure and supermajority voting provisions did not pass.
Spark’s Take on LLY Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, LLY is a Outperform.
Eli Lilly & Co scores a solid 72, driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook. The company’s robust revenue growth, effective cash management, and strategic investments in manufacturing bolster its position. However, high leverage and valuation concerns, along with mixed technical indicators, suggest a need for cautious optimism. The company is poised for growth, yet investors should monitor potential regulatory and market challenges.
To see Spark’s full report on LLY stock, click here.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.