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Astrazeneca Plc (AZN)
NASDAQ:AZN

AstraZeneca (AZN) AI Stock Analysis

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AstraZeneca

(NASDAQ:AZN)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(13.62%Upside)
AstraZeneca's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes, highlighting robust growth and strategic pipeline advancements. While technical indicators suggest neutrality, the valuation appears high, indicating limited upside potential given current prices.
Positive Factors
Clinical Trial Success
DESTINY-Breast09 demonstrated a highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in PFS for Enhertu + pertuzumab vs the control arm standard of care in patients with 1L HER2+ metastatic breast cancer.
Market Leadership
In China, roxadustat is the category leader in ESA+ HIF branded share, with approximately 45% market share.
Product Potential
More recently launched products including Ultomiris, Enhertu, Saphnelo, Tezspire, and Beyfortus collectively have $15B+ in sales potential to AZN in 2030.
Negative Factors
Clinical Trial Discontinuation
The discontinuation of the CAPItello-280 Ph 3 trial evaluating Truqap in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer was announced.
Financial Performance
Total Product Sales of $12,875 bn missing consensus estimates by ~2% and missing Leerink Partners' estimate by ~1%.
Regulatory and Compliance Risks
Current investor concerns mainly revolve around risks to the China business due to alleged improper practices by former employees.

AstraZeneca (AZN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

AstraZeneca Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAstraZeneca (AZN) is a global, science-led biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Cambridge, United Kingdom. The company primarily focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of prescription medicines in three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular, Renal & Metabolism, and Respiratory & Immunology. AstraZeneca operates in over 100 countries and its innovative medicines are used by millions of patients worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyAstraZeneca makes money through the research, development, and sale of pharmaceutical products. Its revenue model is largely based on the sales of prescription drugs across its core therapeutic areas. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded pharmaceutical products, royalties from licensing agreements, and strategic collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. AstraZeneca also engages in partnerships with research institutions and biotech firms to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Additionally, the company invests in its pipeline to develop new drugs, which are critical to sustaining long-term growth and profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include successful drug approvals, patent protections, and the ability to penetrate emerging markets.

AstraZeneca Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong start to 2025 with significant revenue and EPS growth, driven by pipeline advancements and strategic global manufacturing. However, challenges such as Medicare Part D redesign and headwinds in China and Soliris revenue present areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew by 10% in the first quarter, with product sales increasing by 9% and Alliance revenue growing by 42%.
Core EPS and Operating Profit Increase
Core EPS increased by 21% and core operating profit increased by 12%, reflecting strong operating leverage and a lower tax rate.
Significant Pipeline Advancements
Secured 13 approvals in key regions, announced five positive Phase III results, and made progress towards 20 new medicines by 2030.
Promising Oncology Developments
Enhertu total revenues grew 34%, and positive Phase III results for camizestrant and MATTERHORN offer promising growth opportunities.
Resilient Global Manufacturing Network
31 manufacturing sites globally with dual-source supply for the majority of medicines, providing resilience to regional disruptions.
Negative Updates
Impact of Medicare Part D Redesign
Gross-to-net impact from Medicare Part D redesign affected revenue growth, although volume growth partially offset this impact.
Challenges in China
Decline of Pulmicort sales and expected inclusion of Farxiga in the VBP program in China present headwinds.
Soliris Revenue Pressure
Soliris revenues are expected to decline due to conversion to Ultomiris, biosimilar pressure, and unfavorable order timing.
Company Guidance
During AstraZeneca's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. Total revenue saw a growth of 10%, driven by a strong demand for innovative medicines across all major regions. The core operating profit increased by 12%, while the core earnings per share (EPS) rose by 21%, benefitting from a lower tax rate due to settlements. AstraZeneca secured 13 approvals in key regions, highlighting the value of its medicines. The company's emerging markets, excluding China, saw a revenue increase of 17%, while China itself experienced a 5% growth, or 9% when adjusting for Pulmicort sales decline. AstraZeneca aims to deliver at least 20 new medicines by 2030, with nine already approved. The company is reiterating its full-year 2025 guidance, anticipating high single-digit percentage growth in total revenue and low double-digit percentage growth in core EPS at constant exchange rates.

AstraZeneca Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AstraZeneca exhibits strong financial health across all verticals. The income statement reflects solid growth and profitability improvements with a revenue growth rate of 16.15% and a robust gross profit margin of 81.38%. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, evidenced by a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76. Cash flow performance is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 25.63% and efficient cash conversion metrics.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
AstraZeneca shows strong income statement performance with a consistent revenue growth trajectory, evidenced by a revenue growth rate of 16.15% from 2023 to TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 81.38% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin also improved to 14.14% TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT margin at 19.21% and EBITDA margin at 32.19% TTM suggest solid operational efficiency. Overall, AstraZeneca's income statement reflects a strong growth trend with improving profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
AstraZeneca maintains a stable balance sheet with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76 TTM, indicating manageable leverage levels. The equity ratio stands at 38.62% TTM, providing a stable equity base. Return on equity improved to 18.94% TTM, highlighting effective utilization of shareholder funds. The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial structure, though attention to debt levels remains prudent.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
AstraZeneca demonstrates strong cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 25.63% from 2023 to TTM, indicating robust cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.68 TTM, showing efficient conversion of earnings to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.18 TTM underscores solid cash flow management. Overall, cash flows are well-aligned with income, supporting financial flexibility.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
54.98B54.07B45.81B44.35B37.42B26.62B
Gross Profit
44.75B43.87B37.77B31.96B24.98B21.32B
EBIT
10.56B10.00B8.19B3.76B1.06B5.16B
EBITDA
17.70B15.44B13.91B9.09B5.11B8.08B
Net Income Common Stockholders
7.77B7.04B5.96B3.29B112.00M3.20B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.39B5.65B5.86B6.41B6.40B7.99B
Total Assets
106.25B104.03B101.12B96.48B105.36B66.73B
Total Debt
31.29B30.11B28.62B29.23B30.78B20.38B
Net Debt
26.06B24.63B22.78B23.07B24.45B12.55B
Total Liabilities
65.12B63.16B61.95B59.42B66.08B51.09B
Stockholders Equity
41.04B40.79B39.14B37.04B39.27B15.62B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
9.14B7.28B6.57B7.24B3.76B2.19B
Operating Cash Flow
13.09B11.86B10.35B9.81B5.96B4.80B
Investing Cash Flow
-6.82B-7.98B-4.06B-2.96B-11.06B-285.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-8.73B-4.00B-6.57B-6.82B3.65B-2.20B

AstraZeneca Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price70.41
Price Trends
50DMA
70.30
Positive
100DMA
70.66
Positive
200DMA
72.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
55.79
Neutral
STOCH
86.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AZN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.70, above the 50-day MA of 70.30, and below the 200-day MA of 72.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AZN.

AstraZeneca Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NVNVS
78
Outperform
$215.37B17.5332.95%2.91%6.30%-13.28%
AZAZN
77
Outperform
$219.66B28.0819.81%2.16%15.48%22.70%
MRMRK
76
Outperform
$194.81B11.2939.31%4.07%4.40%654.93%
SNSNY
71
Outperform
$128.05B21.637.34%2.84%-4.57%2.96%
PFPFE
66
Neutral
$132.58B16.908.62%7.25%13.38%
GSGSK
63
Neutral
$78.10B19.8322.26%3.96%4.17%-29.96%
53
Neutral
$5.14B3.23-45.01%2.85%17.55%-0.69%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AZN
AstraZeneca
70.96
-4.15
-5.53%
GSK
GlaxoSmithKline
39.44
-2.97
-7.00%
MRK
Merck & Company
77.59
-44.87
-36.64%
NVS
Novartis
113.21
16.46
17.01%
PFE
Pfizer
23.61
-2.92
-11.01%
SNY
Sanofi
52.39
5.93
12.76%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.