Luckin Coffee Inc (LKNCY)
OTHER OTC:LKNCY
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Luckin Coffee
(OTC:LKNCY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(4.42% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is led by solid fundamentals (strong growth and operating profitability) and a very cheap valuation (low P/E), partially offset by deteriorating technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and near-term profitability risks flagged on the earnings call (delivery-cost pressure and margin volatility) alongside rising leverage and uneven free-cash-flow trends.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Customer Growth
Sustained double‑digit revenue growth and massive customer additions reflect structural demand and widening market share in China’s coffee market. High-frequency digital ordering and product breadth increase customer lifetime value and provide a durable base for cross-sell, pricing power, and scale-driven margin recovery over ensuing quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Meaningfully higher leverage and a near doubling of total debt reduce financial flexibility and increase interest and refinancing exposure if growth or margins disappoint. Elevated indebtedness constrains strategic options, heightens liquidity risk in adverse scenarios, and warrants monitoring over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Customer Growth
Sustained double‑digit revenue growth and massive customer additions reflect structural demand and widening market share in China’s coffee market. High-frequency digital ordering and product breadth increase customer lifetime value and provide a durable base for cross-sell, pricing power, and scale-driven margin recovery over ensuing quarters.
Read all positive factors
Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.7
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth44.43%
EPS Growth62.05%
CountryUS
Employees33,795
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding269,267,180
10 Day Avg. Volume1,082,512
30 Day Avg. Volume1,575,007
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.20
P/FCF Ratio2.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.00Price Target Upside31.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)12.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$59.47B
Luckin Coffee Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Luckin Coffee Inc. engages in the retail services of freshly brewed coffee and non-coffee drinks in the People's Republic of China. It also offers hot and iced freshly brewed coffee, such as Americano, Latte, Cappuccino, Macchiato, Flat White, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Luckin Coffee makes money primarily by selling beverages—especially coffee—directly to consumers through its store network. Revenue is generated from (1) sales in company-operated stores, where Luckin records the full retail value of items sold (e...
Luckin Coffee Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong full-year growth across revenue, profits, customer additions and store expansion, supported by a materially improved cash position and validated international pilots. However, management flagged near-term headwinds: Q4 same-store sales moderation, notable quarterly margin contraction, and sharply higher delivery and operating expenses driven by changing subsidy dynamics. Management frames these as expected, short-term effects and reiterated a scale-focused, disciplined growth strategy with continued product innovation and digital/AI investments. On balance, the company delivered sizable structural gains while acknowledging temporary profitability pressure and market volatility.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue and Profit Growth
Total net revenues increased 43% year-over-year to RMB 49.3 billion for FY2025. GAAP operating profit rose 42% to ~RMB 5.1 billion (operating margin 10.3%). Non-GAAP operating profit increased 43% to ~RMB 5.6 billion (non-GAAP margin 11.5%). Net profit grew 22% to RMB 3.6 billion (net margin 7.3%); non-GAAP net profit up 27% to RMB 4.2 billion (non-GAAP net margin 8.5%).
Negative Updates
Q4 Same-Store Sales Moderation
Same-store sales for self-operated stores moderated to +1.2% in Q4 (contrast to FY2025 same-store sales growth of 7.5%), reflecting seasonality, changing food-delivery subsidy dynamics and cup-mix shifts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Revenue and Profit Growth
Total net revenues increased 43% year-over-year to RMB 49.3 billion for FY2025. GAAP operating profit rose 42% to ~RMB 5.1 billion (operating margin 10.3%). Non-GAAP operating profit increased 43% to ~RMB 5.6 billion (non-GAAP margin 11.5%). Net profit grew 22% to RMB 3.6 billion (net margin 7.3%); non-GAAP net profit up 27% to RMB 4.2 billion (non-GAAP net margin 8.5%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 is to continue a disciplined, agile, scale-focused expansion while protecting healthy profitability — with management reiterating market‑share growth as the top priority, a focus on stores, costs and pricing, and an expectation of near‑term volatility in same‑store sales and margins as food‑delivery subsidies normalize and 2025’s high base rolls off. They plan to “maintain an industry‑leading pace” of openings and tightly monitor store ramp‑up and maturation, building on 2025 results (total net revenue RMB49.3bn, +43% YoY; GAAP operating profit RMB5.1bn, +42%, 10.3% margin; non‑GAAP operating profit RMB5.6bn, 11.5% margin; net profit RMB3.6bn, 7.3% margin; year‑end cash ~RMB9.0bn). Operational anchors cited to drive growth include the 31,048 stores network (30,888 domestic: 20,144 self‑operated, 10,744 partnership; +1,792 net China stores in Q4), international rollout (160 overseas stores: 81 SG, 9 US, 70 MY), a customer base of >450m cumulative (≈110m new transactors in 2025; average monthly transacting users >98m and >100m for five months), 4.1bn freshly brewed cups (+39%) and >20% of cups from non‑coffee items. Management also flagged delivery dynamics as a margin headwind to watch (delivery expense up 94% to RMB1.6bn, 13% of revenue in Q4) but said continued product innovation, broader pricing architecture, digital/AI efficiency gains and tighter cost management will underpin longer‑term same‑store sales recovery and margin improvement.Luckin Coffee Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 47.95B | 34.96B | 24.90B | 13.53B | 7.86B |
| Gross Profit | 28.16B | 19.44B | 13.40B | 7.86B | 4.25B |
| EBITDA | 6.55B | 7.09B | 5.12B | 2.78B | 2.10B |
| Net Income | 3.50B | 2.97B | 2.85B | 496.82M | 571.05M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 30.32B | 23.10B | 18.29B | 10.48B | 12.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.21B | 5.74B | 3.49B | 3.53B | 6.48B |
| Total Debt | 11.59B | 6.01B | 4.97B | 1.91B | 4.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.17B | 10.05B | 10.16B | 5.43B | 8.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.15B | 13.05B | 8.14B | 5.05B | 5.15B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.39B | 1.93B | 143.73M | -781.20M | -49.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.94B | 4.23B | 2.90B | 19.82M | 123.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.59B | -3.21B | -3.45B | -798.05M | 337.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -324.51M | 333.60M | 0.00 | -2.28B | 1.51B |
Luckin Coffee Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.52
Price Trends
34.80
Negative
35.06
Negative
36.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.99
Positive
45.48
Neutral
19.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LKNCY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.29, below the 50-day MA of 34.80, and below the 200-day MA of 36.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LKNCY.
Luckin Coffee Risk Analysis
Luckin Coffee disclosed 108 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Luckin Coffee reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Luckin Coffee Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $9.18B | 2.68 | 24.49% | ― | 44.43% | 62.05% | |
65 Neutral | $8.73B | 96.10 | 12.41% | ― | 28.93% | 69.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.03B | 109.16 | 8.43% | ― | 23.93% | 153.50% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $682.30M | 48.41 | 0.83% | ― | 17.27% | -76.53% | |
51 Neutral | $110.75B | 83.00 | -17.22% | 2.88% | 2.80% | -50.71% | |
44 Neutral | $691.39M | -4.04 | -33.40% | ― | 2.43% | -23.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LKNCY
Luckin Coffee
32.00
2.37
8.00%
SBUX
Starbucks
97.21
10.91
12.64%
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
55.50
-4.90
-8.11%
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group
11.16
-6.40
-36.45%
SG
Sweetgreen
5.82
-16.92
-74.41%
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
86.21
-5.74
-6.24%
Luckin Coffee Corporate Events
Luckin Coffee Files 2025 Form 20-F Annual Report With U.S. SEC
Mar 27, 2026
Luckin Coffee said on March 27, 2026 that it had filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing provides audited consolidated financial statements under U.S...
Luckin Coffee Posts Strong 2025 Growth as Store Expansion Lifts Revenue but Squeezes Margins
Feb 26, 2026
Luckin Coffee reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on February 26, 2026, highlighting rapid expansion and robust revenue growth driven by store openings and customer gains. The chain ended 2025 with 31,048 stores af...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.