Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.67B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 44.43%
• EPS Growth: 62.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 33,795
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 266,231,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,819,299
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,664,840
• PEG Ratio: 0.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.00
• 1Y Price Target: $54.84
• Price Target Upside: 63.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.58B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(7.40% Upside)

Overall score is driven by solid fundamental performance (profitable scaling, improving operating cash flow, and manageable leverage) and a strong growth-focused earnings update, partially offset by weak technical momentum and margin/FCF volatility risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability and expansion.

Store Expansion

The significant expansion of store locations enhances market presence and accessibility, driving future revenue growth and competitive positioning.

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation supports reinvestment, debt servicing, and strategic initiatives, ensuring financial flexibility and growth potential.

Negative Factors

Rising Coffee Bean Costs

Increased raw material costs could pressure profit margins, necessitating careful cost management to maintain profitability.

Increased Expenses

Rising operational expenses may strain profit margins and require efficiency improvements to sustain financial performance.

Competitive Pressure

Emerging competitors in the beverage market may challenge market share, necessitating strategic investments in brand and marketing.

Luckin Coffee Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Luckin Coffee Inc. engages in the retail services of freshly brewed coffee and non-coffee drinks in the People's Republic of China. It also offers hot and iced freshly brewed coffee, such as Americano, Latte, Cappuccino, Macchiato, Flat White, and Mocha, as well as specialty coffee based on market and seasonal trends; coconut milk latte products; tea drinks; pre-made beverages; and pre-made food items, such as pastries, sandwiches, and snacks. In addition, the company offers cups, tote bags, and other merchandises. It operates pick-up stores, relax stores, and delivery kitchens under the Luckin brand, as well as Luckin mobile app, Weixin mini-program, and other third-party platforms for third-party payment channels. Further, the company provides technical and consultation services; and manufactures materials for products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 4,397 self-operated stores; 1,627 partnership stores; and 1,102 Luckin Coffee EXPRESS machines. Luckin Coffee Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Luckin Coffee generates revenue primarily through the sale of coffee and other beverages. The company's revenue model is centered around its mobile app, which streamlines the customer experience by allowing users to order and pay for products in advance, reducing wait times and enhancing convenience. A significant portion of its income comes from its extensive network of self-operated stores and pick-up locations, where customers can quickly collect their orders. Additionally, Luckin Coffee has formed partnerships with third-party delivery services to extend its reach and cater to the growing demand for food delivery in urban areas. The company's focus on cost control, competitive pricing, and aggressive expansion strategy has contributed to its ability to capture a substantial share of the Chinese coffee market. Furthermore, Luckin Coffee occasionally engages in marketing promotions and discounts to attract new customers and increase sales volume, which also contributes to its revenue streams.

Luckin Coffee Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year turnaround with accelerating 2024 revenue growth, solid gross/EBITDA margins, improving operating cash flow, and moderate leverage. Score is held back by the 2024 net margin step-down and historically volatile/free-cash-flow conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated in 2024 (up 10.551 vs. 0.873 in 2023), showing continued store-level and demand momentum. Profitability is solid with a 2024 gross margin of ~55.6% and EBITDA margin of ~20.9%, but net margin stepped down to ~8.5% from ~11.4% in 2023, indicating higher operating costs, reinvestment, or other below-the-line pressure. Longer-term, results show a strong turnaround from deep losses in 2019–2020 to sustained profitability since 2021, though margins remain somewhat volatile year to year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable: 2024 debt-to-equity is ~0.46, improved from ~0.61 in 2023 and far better than the highly levered profile seen in 2020–2021 (~1.13). Equity has expanded meaningfully (to ~13.1B in 2024 from ~8.1B in 2023), supporting balance-sheet resilience. Return on equity remains attractive (~22.8% in 2024), though it moderated from a very high 2023 level (~35.0%), suggesting profitability is still normalizing as the company scales.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong and improving (about 4.23B in 2024 vs. 2.90B in 2023), supporting the quality of earnings. However, free cash flow is more uneven: it improved versus 2023 (about 1.93B vs. 0.14B), yet the reported free-cash-flow growth rate is sharply negative in 2024 and historical cash generation has been volatile (including materially negative free cash flow in 2022). Cash conversion also remains mixed, with free cash flow running at ~46% of 2024 net income, implying meaningful reinvestment needs and/or working-capital swings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	40.92B	34.96B	24.90B	13.53B	7.86B	3.81B
Gross Profit	23.56B	19.44B	13.40B	7.86B	4.25B	1.47B
EBITDA	6.51B	7.32B	5.11B	2.44B	1.67B	-5.33B
Net Income	3.90B	2.97B	2.85B	496.82M	571.05M	-5.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	27.00B	23.10B	18.29B	10.48B	12.31B	9.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.41B	5.74B	3.49B	3.53B	6.48B	5.06B
Total Debt	6.17B	6.01B	4.97B	1.91B	4.10B	3.00B
Total Liabilities	13.44B	10.05B	10.16B	5.43B	8.68B	6.60B
Stockholders Equity	13.56B	13.05B	8.14B	5.05B	5.15B	2.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.10B	1.93B	143.73M	-781.20M	-49.77M	-3.20B
Operating Cash Flow	6.40B	4.23B	2.90B	19.82M	123.45M	-2.38B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.69B	-3.21B	-3.45B	-798.05M	337.00K	-1.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-300.00M	333.60M	0.00	-2.28B	1.51B	4.03B

Luckin Coffee Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 33.52
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LKNCY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.99, below the 50-day MA of 35.87, and below the 200-day MA of 36.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LKNCY.

Luckin Coffee Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAVA	70 Neutral	$8.19B	60.83	19.84%	―	23.93%	153.50%
BROS	69 Neutral	$10.28B	125.56	10.53%	―	28.93%	69.59%
LKNCY	66 Neutral	$9.67B	20.28	26.80%	―	44.43%	62.05%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SBUX	56 Neutral	$103.65B	55.96	―	2.88%	2.80%	-50.71%
FWRG	54 Neutral	$1.01B	210.28	0.83%	―	17.27%	-76.53%
SG	48 Neutral	$938.70M	-8.21	-26.47%	―	2.43%	-23.25%

Luckin Coffee Corporate Events

Luckin Coffee Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Growth

Luckin Coffee reported a robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with net revenues increasing by 50.2% year-over-year to RMB15.3 billion. The company achieved a record high of 112.3 million average monthly transacting customers and expanded its store network significantly, ending the quarter with 29,214 stores. This growth was driven by a substantial increase in both self-operated and partnership store revenues, alongside a notable rise in delivery volumes. Despite a decrease in operating margins compared to the previous year, the company’s strategic focus on scale and customer demand has reinforced its market leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (LKNCY) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Luckin Coffee stock, see the LKNCY Stock Forecast page.