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Lineage, Inc. (LINE)
NASDAQ:LINE
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Lineage, Inc.
(NASDAQ:LINE)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▼(-2.37% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
Overall score reflects improved balance-sheet quality and stronger operating/free cash flow, partially offset by persistent GAAP losses and cooling revenue/NOI trends. Technicals are mildly positive (above key shorter-term averages with neutral momentum), while valuation is helped by the high dividend but constrained by negative earnings and cautious 2026 guidance.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging
Material deleveraging materially improves financial flexibility for a capital-intensive REIT. Lower debt reduces refinancing risk, increases capacity for selective growth or shareholder returns, and supports resilience through cyclical demand swings in cold storage over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for dividends, maintenance capex, and selective development without depending solely on external financing. Strong cash conversion helps absorb temporary NOI weakness and enables portfolio optimization over the medium term.
High-growth GIS business
A faster-growing, higher‑margin integrated solutions segment diversifies revenue away from commoditized warehousing. GIS margin expansion and double-digit NOI growth enhance overall portfolio resilience and provide a scalable service offering that can drive durable earnings upside as volumes normalize.
Negative Factors
Same-store NOI pressure
Persistent same‑store NOI declines indicate core warehouse cash profitability remains under stress. Sustained negative same‑store trends constrain organic FFO/AFFO growth, limit the pace of dividend increases, and raise the risk that operational improvements may take multiple quarters to offset pricing and volume headwinds.
Ongoing GAAP losses and revenue cooling
Flat-to-declining revenue and recurring GAAP losses reflect structural margin pressure from non‑operating items and depreciation in an asset‑heavy business. This creates headline earnings volatility that can constrain strategic optionality and investor confidence despite positive cash flow trends.
Industry overcapacity & throughput headwinds
Structural oversupply across refrigerated warehousing and weaker container/throughput volumes reduce pricing power and extend recovery timelines. Regional pockets of intense competition can depress occupancy and rents, making margin and NOI recovery slower and more dependent on selective asset sales or repurposing.
Lineage, Inc. (LINE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.69B
Dividend Yield6.18%
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth0.44%
EPS Growth75.40%
CountryUS
Employees26,000
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding228,289,630
10 Day Avg. Volume1,564,785
30 Day Avg. Volume1,600,444
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.90
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.49
P/FCF Ratio40.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.75Price Target Upside-5.42% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.49B
Lineage, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLineage, Inc. engages in the provision of temperature-controlled warehouse real estate investment trust (REIT). It operates through the Global Warehousing and Global Integrated Solutions segments. The Global Warehousing segment composes of industrial real estate properties to provide temperature-controlled warehousing services to its customers. The Global Integrated Solutions segment consists of specialized cold-chain services. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Novi, MI.
How the Company Makes MoneyLineage, Inc. generates revenue through multiple streams, including the commercialization of its stem cell therapies and partnerships with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies for research and development collaborations. The company often enters into licensing agreements that allow it to earn royalties on sales of products developed using its proprietary technologies. Additionally, Lineage may receive milestone payments tied to the success of clinical trials and regulatory approvals of its therapies. Strategic partnerships with academic institutions and research organizations also play a crucial role in funding its development programs, further contributing to its revenue generation.
Lineage, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicated a mix of stabilizing operational signs and meaningful tactical progress (AFFO beat, tax savings, occupancy stabilization, strong GIS growth, active development pipeline and asset monetizations) alongside persistent near-term headwinds in core warehousing (same-store NOI declines, lower throughput and container volumes, elevated industry supply in select markets) and conservative 2026 guidance. Management emphasized cost savings, portfolio optimization, and capital deployment flexibility to navigate the environment and position the company for medium-term upside.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
AFFO and Cash Generation Beat
Q4 total AFFO of $214,000,000 and AFFO per share of $0.83 were flat year-over-year and ahead of expectations; full year AFFO per share increased 2.4% to $3.37. Q4 outperformance driven by better maintenance CapEx management and cash tax planning.
Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO Largely In Line
Q4 adjusted EBITDA declined 2% to $327,000,000 and full-year adjusted EBITDA declined 2.3% to $1,300,000,000, both within previously provided guidance ranges.
Occupancy Stabilization and Sequential Improvement
Same-store physical occupancy improved sequentially by 400 basis points to 79.3%; 2025 average physical occupancy reported at ~75% and year-over-year physical occupancy was down only ~50 basis points, indicating stabilization and return to normal seasonality.
Revenue per Pallet Growth
Rent and storage revenue per physical pallet grew ~1.7% year-over-year on a same-store basis and over 3% for the total warehouse segment, demonstrating pricing recovery despite macro headwinds.
Strong GIS (Global Integrated Solutions) Performance
GIS segment: Q4 NOI growth of 15%; GIS delivered nearly 10% year-over-year growth for 2025. Q4 GIS EBITDA grew 15% to $61,000,000 and full-year GIS EBITDA up 9% to $251,000,000; GIS NOI margin improved 470 basis points to 19.5%.
Active Growth Capital Deployment and Development Pipeline
Invested $170,000,000 of growth capital in the quarter; 24 facilities under construction or ramping representing over $1,000,000,000 of previously invested capital. Company expects these projects to meaningfully contribute to future earnings once stabilized.
Tax and Cost Savings Initiatives
Current tax expense for AFFO came in at $15,000,000 vs prior guidance of $30–35M, producing a Q4 tax beat of approximately $18,000,000 (~$0.07 per share), with about half expected to be sustainable. Management accelerated admin and indirect cost reduction program with line-of-sight to $50,000,000 of annualized savings by year-end 2026 (and referenced a longer-term ~$100,000,000 run-rate opportunity).
Balance Sheet & Capital Markets Execution
Ended quarter with total net debt of $7.7B and total liquidity of $1.9B. Issued $700,000,000 seven-year Eurobonds at 4.125% and executed a $1.25B floating-to-fixed forward swap at 3.15% through Feb 2028. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 6.0x and adjusted net debt to transaction-adjusted EBITDA at 5.2x under supplemental metric.
Noncore Asset Monetization
Sold a noncore Santa Maria, CA asset for $60,000,000 at a mid-6% cap rate; management highlighted private market cap-rate strength and intent to pursue portfolio optimization and monetization opportunities.
Negative Updates
Same-Store NOI and Warehouse NOI Pressure
Same-store NOI declined 5.0% year-over-year in Q4 (same-store NOI $340,000,000) and full-year same-store NOI declined 5.8%; total warehouse NOI declined 2.4% in Q4 to $373,000,000 and full-year total warehouse NOI declined 3.3% to $1,480,000,000.
Throughput and Container Volume Declines
Throughput volumes down 2.8% year-over-year and container volumes down 9% year-over-year in Q4, contributing to lower services revenue per throughput pallet (down ~70 basis points) and weighing on warehousing margins.
Negative Same-Store NOI Guidance for 2026
2026 guidance assumes same-store NOI growth of negative 4% to negative 1% and total warehouse NOI growth of negative 2% to +1%, indicating continued near-term pressure on core operations.
Industry Overcapacity and Supply Headwinds
CBRE data cited: U.S. public refrigerated warehouse supply increased 14.5% from 2021–2025 vs. consumer demand growth of 5%, implying ~9.5% excess capacity over four years; certain 'late cycle' markets (about 15% of sampled U.S. NOI) remain under significant competitive pressure.
Entering 2026 at Slightly Lower Occupancy
Company acknowledged it is entering 2026 at a slightly lower occupancy level versus the prior year, and Q1 is seasonally soft with continued headwinds from lower import/export volumes.
Guidance and Revenue Risks from Mix and Modal Shifts
Management expects only 1–2% net pricing increase in warehousing for 2026, and notes revenue per pallet mix pressure from lower import/export volumes and tariff-driven commodity shifts; GIS guidance also moderated to 0–2% NOI growth due to fuel declines and modal shift impacts.
Leverage and Valuation Considerations
Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 6.0x may be viewed as elevated by some investors; management highlighted a public vs private valuation disconnect (stating the company trades at >35% discount to NAV and an implied public cap rate ~8.5% versus private market mid-6% cap rates), underscoring near-term valuation/headline risk.
Company Guidance
Lineage’s 2026 guidance calls for same‑store NOI down 4% to 1%, total warehouse NOI down 2% to up 1%, GIS NOI 0%–2%, adjusted EBITDA $1.25B–$1.30B and AFFO per share $2.75–$3.00; management also guided admin expense $465M–$480M, stock‑based comp $125M, interest expense $340M–$360M, current tax expense for AFFO $20M–$30M and recurring capex roughly $170M–$180M. They expect net pricing gains of 1%–2% (having worked through ~65% of warehousing revenue), a seasonal cadence starting at the low end of the year with improvement into 2H, a $50M annualized admin/indirect savings target (about half hitting 2026), a stable ~400–600 bps spread between physical and economic occupancy, and balance‑sheet metrics of $7.7B net debt, $1.9B liquidity, net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~6.0x (5.2x on an adjusted basis).Lineage, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are mixed but improving: deleveraging is significant (debt down sharply into 2025) and operating/free cash flow strengthened meaningfully, which supports a REIT profile. Offsetting this, revenue has cooled/declined and GAAP profitability remains weak with recurring net losses and volatile EBIT.Income Statement
Revenue has been essentially flat over the last two years (2024 ~flat; 2025 down ~5.6%) after strong growth in 2022–2023, suggesting momentum has cooled. Profitability is mixed: EBITDA margins were solid in 2022–2024, but net income has remained negative each year provided (including a large loss in 2024), indicating meaningful non-operating costs and/or depreciation and other charges. EBIT has also been volatile (negative in 2022–2023, positive in 2024–2025), which limits confidence in earnings quality and durability.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved materially: total debt fell from about $11.0B (2023) to $6.9B (2024) and to $1.8B (2025), and debt relative to equity moved from above 2.0x (2021–2023) to ~0.8x (2024). Equity is sizable versus assets (2025 equity ~$8.2B on ~$19.2B assets), supporting balance-sheet flexibility. The main weakness is that shareholder returns remain negative where provided (return on equity is negative in 2022–2024), reflecting ongoing net losses despite the improved capital structure.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation looks comparatively strong: operating cash flow increased from ~$330M (2021) to ~$703M (2024) and ~$943M (2025). Free cash flow improved significantly from deeply negative in 2021–2022 to positive in 2023–2025, with a sizable step-up in 2025 (~$196M). A key watch-out is volatility in free cash flow (e.g., near-breakeven in 2024) and the disconnect between cash flow and reported losses (net income remains negative), which can persist in real estate but still complicates headline earnings optics.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.36B | 5.34B | 5.34B | 4.93B | 3.70B |
| Gross Profit | 826.00M | 1.76B | 1.75B | 1.46B | 1.13B |
| EBITDA | 1.05B | 547.00M | 1.24B | 976.00M | 632.90M |
| Net Income | -100.00M | -664.00M | -77.00M | -63.00M | -153.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.18B | 18.66B | 18.87B | 18.56B | 16.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.00M | 173.00M | 68.00M | 170.60M | 209.10M |
| Total Debt | 1.82B | 6.88B | 11.05B | 10.69B | 9.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.94B | 8.97B | 12.85B | 12.45B | 11.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.25B | 8.64B | 5.05B | 5.17B | 4.34B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 196.00M | 12.00M | 30.00M | -312.00M | -359.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 943.00M | 703.00M | 796.00M | 501.00M | 329.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.07B | -919.00M | -1.07B | -2.37B | -3.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 14.00M | 320.00M | 136.00M | 1.84B | 3.03B |
Lineage, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
40.97
Price Trends
36.47
Positive
36.92
Positive
39.45
Positive
Market Momentum
0.84
Negative
63.46
Neutral
79.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LINE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.83, above the 50-day MA of 36.47, and above the 200-day MA of 39.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LINE.
Lineage, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $6.81B | 16.74 | 10.28% | 3.38% | 21.13% | 74.37% | |
74 Outperform | $10.16B | 39.10 | 7.58% | 3.15% | 11.10% | -1.65% | |
71 Outperform | $7.41B | 26.55 | 7.75% | 4.02% | 9.62% | 31.08% | |
67 Neutral | $8.50B | 33.34 | 9.27% | 2.98% | 9.66% | -23.17% | |
66 Neutral | $8.61B | 43.15 | 2.50% | 4.30% | 10.27% | 15.25% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $8.69B | -94.14 | -1.16% | 6.18% | 0.44% | 75.40% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
LINE
Lineage, Inc.
40.97
-16.66
-28.91%
EGP
Eastgroup Properties
194.93
19.48
11.10%
STAG
Stag Industrial
39.30
4.86
14.12%
TRNO
Terreno Realty
66.32
0.73
1.11%
FR
First Industrial Realty
63.48
7.97
14.36%
REXR
Rexford Industrial Realty
37.88
-1.57
-3.99%
Lineage, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Lineage Posts Flat 2025 Results, Issues 2026 Guidance
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Lineage reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing flat annual revenue at $5.36 billion, a GAAP net loss of $113 million, and a modest 2.3% decline in adjusted EBITDA to $1.30 billion, while AFFO rose 22.7% to $865 million and AFFO per share increased 2.4% to $3.37. Despite a slight revenue dip in the quarter and margin pressure, the company highlighted improved network utilization, maintained its quarterly dividend at an annualized $2.11 per share, and initiated 2026 guidance calling for adjusted EBITDA of $1.25–$1.30 billion and AFFO per share of $2.75–$3.00, underscoring a disciplined focus on cost control, productivity and capital management amid challenging industry conditions.
The most recent analyst rating on (LINE) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lineage, Inc. stock, see the LINE Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and Financing
Lineage, Inc. Issues €700 Million Senior Notes
Neutral
Dec 2, 2025
On November 26, 2025, Lineage Europe Finco B.V., an indirect subsidiary of Lineage, Inc., issued €700 million in 4.125% Senior Notes due 2031. These notes are senior unsecured obligations, guaranteed by Lineage, Inc. and its subsidiaries, excluding certain entities. The proceeds, approximately €689 million after expenses, will be used to repay amounts under the company’s revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes. The issuance aims to strengthen Lineage’s financial position, offering flexibility in managing its debt obligations. The notes are subject to various covenants and redemption options, with interest payments commencing in 2026. The notes are not registered under the Securities Act and are sold to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. persons under specific regulations.
The most recent analyst rating on (LINE) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lineage, Inc. stock, see the LINE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.