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Stag Industrial (STAG)
NYSE:STAG
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Stag Industrial
(NYSE:STAG)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$40.00
â–²(9.80% Upside)
Positive Factors
Strong Leasing Activity
High leasing rates and favorable leasing spreads indicate strong demand for Stag's properties, supporting stable long-term revenue growth and cash flow.
Development Progress
Active development and high pre-leasing rates reflect strategic growth and expansion capabilities, enhancing future revenue potential and market position.
Credit Rating Upgrade
An improved credit rating reduces borrowing costs and enhances financial flexibility, supporting long-term strategic initiatives and stability.
Negative Factors
Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Market volatility can disrupt leasing dynamics and tenant decision-making, potentially impacting occupancy rates and revenue stability.
Stubborn Vacancy in Certain Markets
Persistent vacancies in certain markets can lead to lower occupancy rates and reduced rental income, affecting overall profitability.
Transaction Market Slowdown
A slow transaction market can hinder growth through acquisitions, limiting portfolio expansion and revenue diversification opportunities.
Stag Industrial (STAG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.94B
Dividend Yield4.08%
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.3
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth8.56%
EPS Growth22.20%
CountryUS
Employees91
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding186,696,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,126,960
30 Day Avg. Volume1,279,961
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.80Price Target Upside6.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionStag Industrial (STAG) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in the acquisition and operation of single-tenant industrial properties across the United States. The company primarily focuses on logistics facilities, warehouses, and distribution centers that cater to various industries, including e-commerce, manufacturing, and logistics services. Stag Industrial aims to provide its investors with a stable income stream through its diversified portfolio of properties located in key markets, ensuring long-term growth and value appreciation.
How the Company Makes MoneyStag Industrial generates revenue primarily through leasing its industrial properties to tenants on long-term leases. The company earns rental income, which constitutes its main revenue stream. Stag's properties are often leased to high-quality tenants, allowing the company to secure consistent cash flows. Additionally, Stag may benefit from rental escalations built into lease agreements, further enhancing revenue over time. The company strategically invests in properties that are in demand, capitalizing on the growth of e-commerce and logistics sectors. Partnerships with reputable tenants and a diversified portfolio across various geographic locations help mitigate risks and stabilize earnings. Stag also engages in prudent property management and operational efficiencies to maintain and enhance property values, contributing to its overall profitability.
Stag Industrial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a predominantly positive outlook with strong leasing activity and development progress, supported by an improved credit rating. However, challenges such as market volatility and slow transaction markets were noted. The positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges, indicating a robust performance outlook for the near future.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Activity
Leased 90.8% of the operating portfolio square feet expected for 2025, achieving cash leasing spreads of 24.5%. A total of 4.2 million square feet of leases commenced, generating cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 24.6% and 41.1%, respectively.
Development Progress
Approximately 3 million square feet of development activity across 12 buildings, with 42% under construction and 58% delivered and 69% leased. A notable project includes a 500,000 square foot warehouse in Louisville, Kentucky, estimated to cost $47 million.
Credit Rating Upgrade
Moody's Investor Services raised STAG's corporate credit rating to Baa2 with a stable outlook, reflecting the strength of the platform and balance sheet.
Financial Performance
Core FFO per share increased by 3.3% to $0.63 compared to last year. Liquidity stood at $961 million, with a net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA of 5.1x.
Improved Guidance
Increased guidance for cash same-store growth to 3.75%-4% and core FFO per share guidance to $2.48-$2.52. Credit loss guidance reduced due to resolution of previous credit situations.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Initial market volatility driven by global trade war headlines, causing uncertainty in corporate decision-making and impacting leasing dynamics.
Stubborn Vacancy in Certain Markets
Some markets, particularly in larger box categories, experienced higher vacancy rates and longer lease-up times, up to 12 months on average.
Transaction Market Slowdown
While there are positive indicators, the transaction market has been slow, with a wide bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers impacting acquisition pace.
Company Guidance
During the STAG Industrial Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and updated guidance. The operating portfolio achieved a 90.8% leasing rate for 2025, with cash leasing spreads at 24.5%. The development portfolio includes approximately 3 million square feet, with 42% under construction and 58% delivered, currently 69% leased. Core FFO per share increased by 3.3% compared to the previous year, reaching $0.63 for the quarter. Retention for the quarter was 75.3%, and same-store cash NOI growth was 3% for the quarter, 3.2% year-to-date. The company's leverage remains low with a net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA of 5.1x, and liquidity stood at $961 million. Guidance updates include a revision of core FFO per share to a range of $2.48 to $2.52, increased same-store cash guidance to 3.75%-4%, and reduced credit loss guidance to 50 basis points. The recent acquisition included an 183,000 square foot building in Milwaukee, acquired at a cash cap rate of 7.1%, while one non-core building was sold in Calhoun, Georgia, at a 7.4% cash cap rate and an unlevered IRR of 14%.Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Stag Industrial demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability metrics. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage typical of the REIT industry, with improvements in return on equity. Cash flow metrics are particularly strong, indicating effective cash management. While there are some concerns regarding cost management and reliance on debt, the overall financial health of the company is stable and promising.Income Statement
Stag Industrial shows consistent revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 2.27%. The gross profit margin remains strong at 70.51%, although it has decreased from previous years. Net profit margin improved to 29.15% in the TTM, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the decline in gross profit margin and fluctuating EBIT margins suggest potential cost management challenges.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90 in the TTM indicates moderate leverage, which is typical for the REIT industry. Return on equity has improved to 6.85%, reflecting better utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio has slightly decreased, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Stag Industrial's free cash flow growth rate of 8.94% in the TTM is a positive indicator of cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.33 shows strong cash flow relative to earnings, and the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.86 indicates effective cash conversion. These metrics highlight robust cash flow management.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 803.23M | 767.38M | 707.84M | 654.38M | 562.16M | 483.41M |
| Gross Profit | 566.40M | 612.56M | 568.24M | 531.64M | 454.17M | 394.05M |
| EBITDA | 599.52M | 561.02M | 516.05M | 479.97M | 405.22M | 356.29M |
| Net Income | 234.13M | 189.22M | 192.84M | 178.33M | 192.33M | 202.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.83B | 6.83B | 6.28B | 6.18B | 5.83B | 4.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.38M | 36.28M | 20.74M | 25.88M | 18.98M | 15.67M |
| Total Debt | 3.11B | 3.06B | 2.66B | 2.53B | 2.25B | 1.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.30B | 3.30B | 2.84B | 2.73B | 2.44B | 1.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.44B | 3.46B | 3.37B | 3.38B | 3.33B | 2.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 387.59M | 375.06M | 372.63M | 335.22M | 175.77M | 179.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 448.30M | 460.29M | 391.09M | 387.93M | 336.15M | 293.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -573.08M | -731.06M | -320.35M | -447.52M | -1.22B | -554.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 126.10M | 286.29M | -75.67M | 63.19M | 887.12M | 269.18M |
Stag Industrial Technical Analysis
Positive
36.43
Price Trends
35.59
Positive
35.12
Positive
34.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Positive
54.15
Neutral
18.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.07, above the 50-day MA of 35.59, and above the 200-day MA of 34.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STAG.
Stag Industrial Risk Analysis
Stag Industrial disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stag Industrial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stag Industrial Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $8.72B | 35.25 | 7.66% | 3.34% | 11.22% | -3.16% | |
76 Outperform | $6.06B | 22.83 | 6.85% | 3.35% | 22.17% | 40.80% | |
76 Outperform | $10.11B | 31.77 | 3.74% | 3.91% | 13.66% | 11.34% | |
74 Outperform | $7.19B | 24.98 | 10.33% | 3.10% | 9.66% | -4.60% | |
73 Outperform | $6.94B | 28.32 | 6.89% | 4.08% | 8.56% | 22.20% | |
69 Neutral | $2.74B | 32.63 | 4.15% | 5.92% | 6.64% | 210.89% | |
63 Neutral | $7.15B | 13.09 | -0.31% | 6.85% | 4.03% | -25.34% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
STAG
Stag Industrial
36.43
-1.98
-5.15%
EGP
Eastgroup Properties
167.67
-13.82
-7.61%
TRNO
Terreno Realty
58.56
-8.81
-13.08%
FR
First Industrial Realty
52.64
-1.95
-3.57%
LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
9.25
-0.31
-3.24%
REXR
Rexford Industrial Realty
43.53
-4.98
-10.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.