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Stag Industrial (STAG)
NYSE:STAG
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Stag Industrial
(NYSE:STAG)
Select Model
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
â–²(15.90% Upside)
Stag Industrial's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors contributing to the score. The company's ability to generate cash efficiently and its strategic growth initiatives are key strengths. However, the relatively high valuation and technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions are risks that temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Stag Industrial's consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and successful tenant acquisition, supporting long-term stability.
Cash Generation
Robust cash generation capabilities enhance financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Leasing Success
High leasing success rate ensures stable income streams and reflects strong tenant relationships, crucial for sustained growth.
Negative Factors
Rising Debt Levels
Rising debt levels may strain financial resources, potentially impacting future investment capacity and increasing financial risk.
Gross Margin Pressure
Pressure on gross margins suggests cost management challenges, which could affect profitability if not addressed.
National Vacancy Rates
High vacancy rates can limit rental income growth and affect market dynamics, posing a challenge to revenue expansion.
Stag Industrial (STAG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.96B
Dividend Yield4.01%
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.8
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth9.62%
EPS Growth31.08%
CountryUS
Employees91
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding186,750,080
10 Day Avg. Volume1,669,776
30 Day Avg. Volume1,236,526
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)8.03
P/FCF Ratio16.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.90Price Target Upside10.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$836.29M
Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionStag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in the acquisition, ownership, and management of single-tenant industrial properties throughout the United States. The company focuses on properties that are typically leased to tenants under long-term net leases, which provides a stable income stream. Stag Industrial's portfolio includes warehouses, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities, catering to a diverse range of industries including e-commerce, logistics, and consumer goods.
How the Company Makes MoneyStag Industrial generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of industrial properties. The company enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, allowing it to secure consistent cash flow over extended periods. These leases are often structured as net leases, where tenants are responsible for property expenses such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance, thereby reducing the company's operating costs. Additionally, Stag Industrial may benefit from property appreciation and capital gains through strategic acquisitions and dispositions of properties. The company also engages in selective development projects, further diversifying its revenue streams. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for industrial space driven by e-commerce growth, favorable market conditions, and the company's ability to efficiently manage and maintain its properties.
Stag Industrial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
STAG Industrial's earnings call highlighted strong leasing performance and increased FFO guidance, alongside strategic acquisitions and development achievements. However, challenges such as elongated lease gestation periods and high national vacancy rates somewhat tempered these positive outcomes.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Core FFO Guidance
STAG Industrial increased its core FFO guidance for the year to a range of $2.52 to $2.54 per share, a $0.03 increase at the midpoint due to year-to-date results exceeding internal projections.
Leasing Success
The company accomplished 99% of its forecasted leasing for 2025 with cash leasing spreads of approximately 24%. For 2026, 52% of the operating portfolio square feet expected to lease have been addressed, showing tenant engagement.
Development Platform Growth
STAG has 3.4 million square feet of development activity, with completed developments being 83% leased as of September 30. A new build-to-suit project in Union, Ohio is scheduled for completion in Q3 2026 with a stabilized yield of 7%.
Strong Leasing Activity
The company commenced 22 leases totaling 2.2 million square feet in Q3, generating cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 27.2% and 40.6%, respectively.
Improved Acquisition Opportunities
Acquisition volume for the third quarter totaled $101.5 million, and $153 million more is under agreement to close by year-end.
Negative Updates
Elongated Lease Gestation Periods
The company noted that lease gestation periods remain elongated, although leasing demand is improving with increased tours and RFPs.
National Vacancy Rates
STAG expects national vacancy rates to be around 7% for the next 2 to 3 quarters, which impacts potential market rent growth until the back half of next year.
Credit Loss Impact
Same-store cash NOI growth was affected by a 23 basis point cash credit loss incurred during the year.
Company Guidance
During the STAG Industrial Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company increased its core FFO guidance for the year to a range of $2.52 to $2.54 per share, reflecting a $0.03 increase at the midpoint. This adjustment follows strong year-to-date performance that exceeded internal projections. The company also reported a cash leasing spread of approximately 24% for 2025, with 99% of forecasted leasing already accomplished. Looking ahead, STAG anticipates cash leasing spreads of 18% to 20% for 2026 and has already addressed 52% of the operating portfolio square feet expected to lease next year. Acquisition volume for the third quarter totaled $101.5 million, with additional deals under contract slated to close by year-end, reflecting increased acquisition opportunities. Development activity remains robust, with 3.4 million square feet of projects in progress or recently completed, and a significant build-to-suit project in Union, Ohio, set to be completed in Q3 2026. Despite elongated lease gestation periods, leasing demand is improving, and national vacancy rates are expected to improve in the back half of 2026.Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Stag Industrial demonstrates a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and solid cash flow generation. While profitability remains robust, the company faces challenges in maintaining its gross profit margins. The balance sheet is stable, but rising debt levels warrant careful monitoring. The company's ability to generate cash flow efficiently is a significant strength, supporting its financial health and operational flexibility.Income Statement
Stag Industrial shows a solid performance in its income statement with consistent revenue growth and healthy profit margins. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 59.27% and a net profit margin of 29.26%, reflecting strong profitability. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin from previous years suggests some pressure on cost management. Revenue growth remains positive, albeit at a slower pace compared to earlier periods.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Stag Industrial is stable with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92 in the TTM period. The equity ratio stands at 49.67%, indicating a balanced capital structure. Return on equity is modest at 6.99%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The increasing debt levels over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow growth of 10.48% in the TTM period, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.93 suggests efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 91.67%, underscoring the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income.81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 823.61M | 767.38M | 707.84M | 657.35M | 562.16M | 483.41M |
| Gross Profit | 657.10M | 612.56M | 568.24M | 531.64M | 454.17M | 394.05M |
| EBITDA | 673.77M | 599.51M | 570.22M | 535.29M | 500.67M | 488.22M |
| Net Income | 240.95M | 189.22M | 192.84M | 178.33M | 192.33M | 202.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.90B | 6.83B | 6.28B | 6.18B | 5.83B | 4.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.32M | 36.28M | 20.74M | 25.88M | 18.98M | 15.67M |
| Total Debt | 3.14B | 3.06B | 2.66B | 2.53B | 2.25B | 1.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.40B | 3.30B | 2.84B | 2.73B | 2.44B | 1.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.43B | 3.46B | 3.37B | 3.38B | 3.33B | 2.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 425.19M | 375.06M | 372.63M | 335.22M | 175.77M | 179.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 463.85M | 460.29M | 391.09M | 387.93M | 336.15M | 293.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -577.39M | -731.06M | -320.35M | -447.52M | -1.22B | -554.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 60.83M | 286.29M | -75.67M | 63.19M | 887.12M | 269.18M |
Stag Industrial Technical Analysis
Neutral
37.10
Price Trends
38.24
Negative
36.76
Positive
35.48
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.30
Positive
36.90
Neutral
12.19
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.31, below the 50-day MA of 38.24, and above the 200-day MA of 35.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STAG.
Stag Industrial Risk Analysis
Stag Industrial disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stag Industrial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stag Industrial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $9.64B | 37.90 | 7.83% | 3.15% | 11.10% | -1.65% | |
76 Outperform | $9.40B | 27.97 | 4.03% | 4.23% | 10.27% | 15.25% | |
75 Outperform | $6.96B | 28.78 | 7.17% | 4.01% | 9.62% | 31.08% | |
75 Outperform | $6.23B | 19.06 | 8.38% | 3.35% | 21.13% | 74.37% | |
74 Outperform | $7.93B | 32.50 | 8.97% | 2.95% | 9.66% | -23.17% | |
73 Outperform | $2.99B | 26.72 | 5.62% | 5.35% | 6.98% | 465.32% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
STAG
Stag Industrial
37.10
4.32
13.18%
EGP
Eastgroup Properties
181.13
24.61
15.72%
TRNO
Terreno Realty
59.79
2.70
4.73%
FR
First Industrial Realty
57.31
8.17
16.63%
LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
50.62
11.67
29.96%
REXR
Rexford Industrial Realty
39.69
2.69
7.27%
Stag Industrial Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Stag Industrial Amends $300M Term Loan Agreement
Neutral
Sep 17, 2025
On September 15, 2025, STAG Industrial, Inc. announced amendments to its $300 million unsecured term loan, extending the maturity date to March 15, 2030, and adjusting interest rate provisions. Additionally, the company amended its unsecured credit facility and several term loans to remove the 0.10% interest rate adjustment for SOFR loans, allowing more flexible interest rate options. These changes aim to enhance financial flexibility and optimize the company’s debt structure, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market positioning.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.