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Stag Industrial (STAG)
NYSE:STAG
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Stag Industrial
(NYSE:STAG)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(14.37% Upside)
Positive Factors
Credit Rating
STAG received a Moody’s credit upgrade to Baa2, from Baa3.
Leasing Activity
STAG had a strong 2Q25 with 4.2 million square feet of leasing commenced, leading to a Core FFOps beat.
Negative Factors
Acquisition Activity
There is a potential earnings headwind from potentially slower acquisition activity.
Stag Industrial (STAG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.55B
Dividend Yield4.14%
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.2
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth8.56%
EPS Growth22.20%
CountryUS
Employees91
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength48
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding186,696,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,211,671
30 Day Avg. Volume1,430,633
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.38Price Target Upside7.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionStag Industrial (STAG) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specializes in the acquisition and operation of single-tenant industrial properties across the United States. The company primarily focuses on logistics facilities, warehouses, and distribution centers that cater to various industries, including e-commerce, manufacturing, and logistics services. Stag Industrial aims to provide its investors with a stable income stream through its diversified portfolio of properties located in key markets, ensuring long-term growth and value appreciation.
How the Company Makes MoneyStag Industrial generates revenue primarily through leasing its industrial properties to tenants on long-term leases. The company earns rental income, which constitutes its main revenue stream. Stag's properties are often leased to high-quality tenants, allowing the company to secure consistent cash flows. Additionally, Stag may benefit from rental escalations built into lease agreements, further enhancing revenue over time. The company strategically invests in properties that are in demand, capitalizing on the growth of e-commerce and logistics sectors. Partnerships with reputable tenants and a diversified portfolio across various geographic locations help mitigate risks and stabilize earnings. Stag also engages in prudent property management and operational efficiencies to maintain and enhance property values, contributing to its overall profitability.
Stag Industrial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 0.62%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a predominantly positive outlook with strong leasing activity and development progress, supported by an improved credit rating. However, challenges such as market volatility and slow transaction markets were noted. The positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges, indicating a robust performance outlook for the near future.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Activity
Leased 90.8% of the operating portfolio square feet expected for 2025, achieving cash leasing spreads of 24.5%. A total of 4.2 million square feet of leases commenced, generating cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 24.6% and 41.1%, respectively.
Development Progress
Approximately 3 million square feet of development activity across 12 buildings, with 42% under construction and 58% delivered and 69% leased. A notable project includes a 500,000 square foot warehouse in Louisville, Kentucky, estimated to cost $47 million.
Credit Rating Upgrade
Moody's Investor Services raised STAG's corporate credit rating to Baa2 with a stable outlook, reflecting the strength of the platform and balance sheet.
Financial Performance
Core FFO per share increased by 3.3% to $0.63 compared to last year. Liquidity stood at $961 million, with a net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA of 5.1x.
Improved Guidance
Increased guidance for cash same-store growth to 3.75%-4% and core FFO per share guidance to $2.48-$2.52. Credit loss guidance reduced due to resolution of previous credit situations.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Initial market volatility driven by global trade war headlines, causing uncertainty in corporate decision-making and impacting leasing dynamics.
Stubborn Vacancy in Certain Markets
Some markets, particularly in larger box categories, experienced higher vacancy rates and longer lease-up times, up to 12 months on average.
Transaction Market Slowdown
While there are positive indicators, the transaction market has been slow, with a wide bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers impacting acquisition pace.
Company Guidance
During the STAG Industrial Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and updated guidance. The operating portfolio achieved a 90.8% leasing rate for 2025, with cash leasing spreads at 24.5%. The development portfolio includes approximately 3 million square feet, with 42% under construction and 58% delivered, currently 69% leased. Core FFO per share increased by 3.3% compared to the previous year, reaching $0.63 for the quarter. Retention for the quarter was 75.3%, and same-store cash NOI growth was 3% for the quarter, 3.2% year-to-date. The company's leverage remains low with a net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA of 5.1x, and liquidity stood at $961 million. Guidance updates include a revision of core FFO per share to a range of $2.48 to $2.52, increased same-store cash guidance to 3.75%-4%, and reduced credit loss guidance to 50 basis points. The recent acquisition included an 183,000 square foot building in Milwaukee, acquired at a cash cap rate of 7.1%, while one non-core building was sold in Calhoun, Georgia, at a 7.4% cash cap rate and an unlevered IRR of 14%.Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Stag Industrial demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and a robust balance sheet with no debt. The cash flow is solid, with efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, there are some operational challenges, as indicated by a decrease in EBIT margin.Income Statement
Stag Industrial's income statement shows a strong growth trajectory with Total Revenue increasing consistently over the years, from $405.95M in 2019 to $767.38M in 2024. Gross Profit Margin remained stable as revenue and gross profit were equal in 2024. The Net Profit Margin improved significantly from negative in 2019 to a solid 24.63% in 2024, highlighting enhanced profitability. However, EBIT Margin decreased significantly in 2024 compared to previous years, indicating increased operational expenses. Overall, the company demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, albeit with potential operational challenges.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Stag Industrial exhibits a solid balance sheet with growing Total Assets and Stockholders' Equity, reaching $6.83B and $3.46B, respectively, in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio improved significantly to 0 in 2024 due to the elimination of total debt, showcasing strong financial health and reduced risk. The Equity Ratio also remained robust at 50.58%. The Return on Equity (ROE) was strong at 5.47% in 2024. Overall, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet with no debt and strong equity, contributing to its financial stability.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement of Stag Industrial demonstrates a strong operating cash flow, which increased steadily over the years, reaching $460.29M in 2024. The Free Cash Flow also showed positive growth, aligning with the company's profitability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was high, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The company shows a solid cash flow position, with improving Free Cash Flow and strong cash generation capabilities.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 803.23M | 767.38M | 707.84M | 654.38M | 562.16M | 483.41M |
| Gross Profit | 473.68M | 612.56M | 568.24M | 528.68M | 454.17M | 394.05M |
| EBITDA | 449.14M | 561.02M | 516.05M | 827.94M | 402.79M | 352.40M |
| Net Income | 234.13M | 189.22M | 192.84M | 104.22M | 131.73M | 141.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.83B | 6.83B | 6.28B | 6.18B | 5.83B | 4.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.38M | 36.28M | 20.74M | 25.88M | 18.98M | 15.67M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 3.06B | 2.66B | 2.53B | 2.25B | 1.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.30B | 3.30B | 2.84B | 2.73B | 2.44B | 1.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.44B | 3.46B | 3.37B | 3.38B | 3.33B | 2.72B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 387.59M | 375.06M | 372.63M | 335.22M | 175.77M | 179.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 448.30M | 460.29M | 391.09M | 387.93M | 336.15M | 293.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -573.08M | -731.06M | -320.35M | -447.52M | -1.22B | -554.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 126.10M | 286.29M | -75.67M | 63.19M | 887.12M | 269.18M |
Stag Industrial Technical Analysis
Positive
35.85
Price Trends
35.59
Positive
34.67
Positive
34.56
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
55.83
Neutral
63.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.95, above the 50-day MA of 35.59, and above the 200-day MA of 34.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STAG.
Stag Industrial Risk Analysis
Stag Industrial disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stag Industrial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stag Industrial Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.55B | 27.18 | 6.89% | 4.14% | 8.56% | 22.20% | |
74 Outperform | $6.62B | 23.72 | 10.33% | 3.26% | 9.66% | -4.60% | |
74 Outperform | $9.34B | 29.34 | 3.74% | 4.31% | 13.66% | 11.34% | |
72 Outperform | $5.75B | 22.17 | 6.85% | 3.52% | 22.17% | 40.80% | |
69 Neutral | $2.41B | 29.42 | 4.15% | 6.18% | 6.64% | 210.89% | |
64 Neutral | £934.07M | 14.38 | 6.19% | 6.61% | 14.91% | 65.30% | |
48 Neutral | $4.19B | ― | -1.67% | 6.18% | -1.98% | 80.67% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
STAG
Stag Industrial
35.85
-2.43
-6.35%
TRNO
Terreno Realty
55.64
-11.22
-16.78%
FR
First Industrial Realty
50.01
-3.30
-6.19%
LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
8.70
-0.68
-7.25%
REXR
Rexford Industrial Realty
39.34
-9.76
-19.88%
COLD
Americold Realty
14.56
-13.03
-47.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.