Stag Industrial Inc (STAG)
NYSE:STAG
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Stag Industrial
(NYSE:STAG)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
â–²(11.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
STAG’s score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (notably strong cash flow generation) and supportive technical momentum. These positives are tempered by valuation (higher P/E), balance-sheet/leverage sensitivity, and earnings-call-flagged 2026 occupancy/lease rollover and refinancing headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash flow strength
STAG’s materially improved operating and free cash flow profile supports durable REIT economics: high cash conversion provides reliable funds for dividends, development, and accretive acquisitions without relying solely on external capital. This strengthens long‑term cash coverage and financing flexibility.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage profile
Leverage running near 5x EBITDA and a multi-year upward trend in debt-to-equity increase sensitivity to rising rates and refinance risk. Elevated leverage constrains balance sheet optionality, raises interest coverage pressure during downturns, and amplifies the impact of any cash flow softness.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash flow strength
STAG’s materially improved operating and free cash flow profile supports durable REIT economics: high cash conversion provides reliable funds for dividends, development, and accretive acquisitions without relying solely on external capital. This strengthens long‑term cash coverage and financing flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Stag Industrial (STAG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.28B
Dividend Yield4.02%
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.2
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth9.62%
EPS Growth31.08%
CountryUS
Employees91
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding191,170,170
10 Day Avg. Volume1,120,293
30 Day Avg. Volume1,282,656
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.92
Price to Sales (P/S)8.17
P/FCF Ratio17.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.83Price Target Upside8.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$903.47M
Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant, industrial properties throughout the United States. By targeting this type of property, STAG has developed an investmen...
How the Company Makes Money
Stag Industrial generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of industrial properties. The company enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, allowing it to secure consistent cash flow over extended periods. These...
Stag Industrial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple operating and financial successes: above-plan same-store NOI and FFO growth, strong leasing spreads and activity, active accretive acquisitions, development progress, reduced overall new supply, a meaningful dividend increase, and solid liquidity. Counterbalancing these positives are near-term occupancy risk from ~20M sq ft of lease rollovers (with a budgeted ~25% nonrenewal), some regional weaknesses (Southeast ports), a modest interest-expense headwind (~$0.03/sh), and elevated leverage expectations (~5.25x if plans proceed). On balance the company presented clear momentum, conservative budgeting for lease-up risk, and a healthy balance sheet and pipeline, with manageable headwinds identified for 2026.Positive Updates
Core FFO and Earnings Growth
Core FFO per share of $0.66 in Q4 and $2.55 for FY2025, representing a 6.3% increase versus 2024; Q4 included ~$0.10 of one-time items to core FFO per share.
Negative Updates
Significant Lease Roll Exposure and Occupancy Headwind
Approximately 20.0M sq ft of leases roll in 2026 with an assumed ~25% nonrenewal (company guidance uses ~75% retention), creating a meaningful occupancy/lease-up risk and contributing to average occupancy guidance of 96%–97% (down from ~98% start of year).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Core FFO and Earnings Growth
Core FFO per share of $0.66 in Q4 and $2.55 for FY2025, representing a 6.3% increase versus 2024; Q4 included ~$0.10 of one-time items to core FFO per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
STAG initiated 2026 guidance with core FFO per share of $2.60–$2.64 (incurring a $0.03 headwind from refinancing a $300M term loan), year-end net debt/annualized run‑rate adjusted EBITDA of 5.0x (expected to operate around ~5.25x at the plan midpoint), and $750M of liquidity (after settling $157.4M of ATM proceeds). Same‑store cash NOI growth is guided to 2.75%–3.25% with components of 70%–80% retention, cash leasing spreads of 18%–20%, average same‑store occupancy of 96%–97% and 50 bps of credit loss included. Transaction and overhead targets are $350M–$650M of acquisitions at a 6.25%–6.75% cash cap rate, $100M–$200M of dispositions, and G&A of $53M–$56M; the company has already addressed 69% of the operating portfolio square feet it expects to lease in 2026 and expects national deliveries of ~180M sq ft or less in 2026.Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 845.18M | 767.38M | 707.84M | 657.35M | 562.16M |
| Gross Profit | 518.44M | 612.56M | 568.24M | 531.64M | 454.17M |
| EBITDA | 718.24M | 599.51M | 570.22M | 535.29M | 500.67M |
| Net Income | 273.48M | 189.22M | 192.84M | 178.33M | 192.33M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.21B | 6.83B | 6.28B | 6.18B | 5.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.91M | 36.28M | 20.74M | 25.88M | 18.98M |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 3.06B | 2.66B | 2.53B | 2.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.54B | 3.30B | 2.84B | 2.73B | 2.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.60B | 3.46B | 3.37B | 3.38B | 3.33B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 401.81M | 375.06M | 372.63M | 335.22M | 175.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 463.39M | 460.29M | 391.09M | 387.93M | 336.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -497.30M | -731.06M | -320.35M | -447.52M | -1.22B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 97.40M | 286.29M | -75.67M | 63.19M | 887.12M |
Stag Industrial Technical Analysis
Positive
38.65
Price Trends
37.74
Positive
37.52
Positive
36.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
64.06
Neutral
96.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.89, above the 50-day MA of 37.74, and above the 200-day MA of 36.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STAG.
Stag Industrial Risk Analysis
Stag Industrial disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stag Industrial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stag Industrial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $6.97B | 14.93 | 10.09% | 3.38% | 21.13% | 74.37% | |
74 Outperform | $10.29B | 36.86 | 7.48% | 3.15% | 11.10% | -1.65% | |
71 Outperform | $7.28B | 25.24 | 7.85% | 4.02% | 9.62% | 31.08% | |
71 Outperform | $8.25B | 24.05 | 9.32% | 2.98% | 9.66% | -23.17% | |
68 Neutral | $2.90B | 25.58 | 5.49% | 5.33% | 6.98% | 465.32% | |
66 Neutral | $8.04B | 42.45 | 2.44% | 4.30% | 10.27% | 15.25% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
STAG
Stag Industrial
38.65
7.60
24.49%
EGP
Eastgroup Properties
195.10
43.70
28.86%
TRNO
Terreno Realty
65.65
11.73
21.75%
FR
First Industrial Realty
61.10
16.07
35.69%
LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
49.91
13.71
37.89%
REXR
Rexford Industrial Realty
35.29
4.22
13.56%
Stag Industrial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Stag Industrial Expands ATM Equity Distribution With Huntington
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, STAG Industrial, Inc. and its operating partnership entered into an additional equity distribution agreement with Huntington Securities, Inc. as sales agent, forward seller and/or forward purchaser, expanding the bank syndica...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.