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Stag Industrial (STAG)
NYSE:STAG
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Stag Industrial
(NYSE:STAG)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(10.13%Upside)
Positive Factors
Leasing Performance
Leasing activity increased by 39.6% to 5.0msf compared to the long-term average, with cash leasing spreads accelerating.
New Leasing Activity
There could be FFO and SSNOI guidance upside from accelerated new leasing activity.
Tenant Retention
Tenant retention improved 14.4% sequentially to 76.9% in 4Q24.
Negative Factors
2025 Guidance
STAG's 2025 guidance was average, showing decelerating growth, with a lower end result compared to peers.
Acquisition Activity
There is a potential earnings headwind from potentially slower acquisition activity.
Operating Occupancy
Operating portfolio occupancy fell 50 basis points to 96.8%.
Stag Industrial (STAG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.73B
Dividend Yield4.13%
Average Volume (3M)1.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.2
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth8.81%
EPS Growth33.30%
CountryUS
Employees91
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength70
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding186,617,550
10 Day Avg. Volume1,691,901
30 Day Avg. Volume1,526,799
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.95
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio17.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.00Price Target Upside1.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionStag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on the acquisition, ownership, and operation of single-tenant industrial properties throughout the United States. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, and specializes in a diverse portfolio of logistics and warehouse facilities, serving a wide range of industries including manufacturing, distribution, and e-commerce. STAG Industrial aims to provide strong, stable, and increasing cash flow to its investors through its extensive and strategically located property holdings.
How the Company Makes MoneyStag Industrial, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its industrial properties to various tenants. The company's key revenue stream is rental income from long-term lease agreements, which provides predictable and stable cash flows. STAG employs a proactive asset management strategy to maintain high occupancy rates and maximize the value of its properties. Additionally, the company looks to acquire properties that offer potential for rental growth and value appreciation. STAG's earnings are also influenced by its ability to effectively manage its portfolio, optimize operating expenses, and capitalize on strategic acquisitions and partnerships to expand its asset base and increase shareholder value.
Stag Industrial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 11.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a generally positive outlook with strong financial performance and leasing activity, despite facing challenges from global trade uncertainties and specific market weaknesses.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025 with Core FFO Per Share Exceeding Expectations
Core FFO per share was $0.61 in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding initial expectations and demonstrating a strong start to the year.
Significant Leasing Activity
78.5% of the operating portfolio square feet expected to be leased in 2025 has been achieved, with cash leasing spreads of 25.1%. A major lease of 500,000 square feet in the Savannah market was executed with zero downtime and a 25% cash leasing spread.
Positive Acquisition and Disposition Activity
Acquisitions in the first quarter totaled $43 million with cap rates of 6.8% and 7.0%. A building was sold in Nashua, New Hampshire for $67 million at a cash cap rate of 4.9%.
Improved Liquidity and Strong Balance Sheet
Liquidity stood at $1 billion at quarter end, with minimal debt maturities remaining in 2025. A note purchase agreement to issue $550 million of fixed rate senior unsecured notes was entered into, with a weighted average interest rate of 5.65%.
Robust Same-Store NOI Growth
Achieved same-store cash NOI growth of 3.4% for the quarter, driven by leasing spreads of 27.3% and annual escalators at 2.8%.
Negative Updates
Uncertainty Due to Global Trade War and Macroeconomic Conditions
The escalation of the global trade war has introduced uncertainty, causing some lengthening in lease gestation periods and impacting tenant decision-making.
Potential Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs may have a potential impact on business, with some tenants prioritizing diversification of their supply chains.
Challenges in Specific Markets
Weakness observed in markets such as Atlanta, San Diego, and Indianapolis, affecting overall leasing activity.
American Tire Distributors' Credit Concerns
Ongoing concerns with American Tire distributors, which are current on rents but contribute to credit loss guidance of 75 basis points.
Company Guidance
During the STAG Industrial, Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. The company's core FFO per share exceeded expectations at $0.61, while cash available for distribution grew by 8.5% to $106.5 million. Their leasing activity was robust, with 78.5% of the expected 2025 operating portfolio already leased, achieving cash leasing spreads of 25.1%. Additionally, STAG completed acquisitions worth $43 million, with cap rates between 6.8% and 7.0%. The company maintained its 2025 credit loss guidance at 75 basis points, emphasizing strong liquidity with $1 billion available at quarter-end. Moreover, they reported low leverage with a net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.2 times. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, including the global trade war and supply chain disruptions, STAG remains optimistic about its diversified portfolio and strong market positioning.Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Stag Industrial displays strong financial performance with significant revenue and profitability growth, elimination of debt, and robust cash flow. The company's income statement shows strong revenue growth and improved net profit margin, though operational efficiency could be enhanced. The balance sheet is solid with no debt and strong equity, indicating financial stability. Cash flow is strong with efficient cash generation relative to net income.Income Statement
Stag Industrial's income statement shows a strong growth trajectory with Total Revenue increasing consistently over the years, from $405.95M in 2019 to $767.38M in 2024. Gross Profit Margin remained stable as revenue and gross profit were equal in 2024. The Net Profit Margin improved significantly from negative in 2019 to a solid 24.63% in 2024, highlighting enhanced profitability. However, EBIT Margin decreased significantly in 2024 compared to previous years, indicating increased operational expenses. Overall, the company demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, albeit with potential operational challenges.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Stag Industrial exhibits a solid balance sheet with growing Total Assets and Stockholders' Equity, reaching $6.83B and $3.46B, respectively, in 2024. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio improved significantly to 0 in 2024 due to the elimination of total debt, showcasing strong financial health and reduced risk. The Equity Ratio also remained robust at 50.58%. The Return on Equity (ROE) was strong at 5.47% in 2024. Overall, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet with no debt and strong equity, contributing to its financial stability.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement of Stag Industrial demonstrates a strong operating cash flow, which increased steadily over the years, reaching $460.29M in 2024. The Free Cash Flow also showed positive growth, aligning with the company's profitability. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio was high, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The company shows a solid cash flow position, with improving Free Cash Flow and strong cash generation capabilities.80
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 388.06M | 767.38M | 707.84M | 654.38M | 562.16M | 483.41M | Gross Profit |
| 315.15M | 612.56M | 568.24M | 528.68M | 454.17M | 394.05M | EBIT |
| 103.77M | 270.28M | 242.30M | 205.39M | 164.09M | 137.66M | EBITDA |
| 281.66M | 561.02M | 516.05M | 827.94M | 402.79M | 352.40M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 71.90M | 189.22M | 192.84M | 104.22M | 131.73M | 141.83M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 34.83M | 36.28M | 20.74M | 25.88M | 18.98M | 15.67M | Total Assets |
| 5.98B | 6.83B | 6.28B | 6.18B | 5.83B | 4.69B | Total Debt |
| 2.34B | 3.06B | 2.66B | 2.53B | 2.25B | 1.73B | Net Debt |
| 2.30B | 3.03B | 2.64B | 2.51B | 2.23B | 1.72B | Total Liabilities |
| 2.51B | 3.30B | 2.84B | 2.73B | 2.44B | 1.92B | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.40B | 3.46B | 3.37B | 3.38B | 3.33B | 2.72B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 59.82M | 375.06M | 372.63M | 335.22M | 175.77M | 179.10M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 224.09M | 460.29M | 391.09M | 387.93M | 336.15M | 293.92M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -879.63M | -731.06M | -320.35M | -447.52M | -1.22B | -554.62M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 653.55M | 286.29M | -75.67M | 63.19M | 887.12M | 269.18M |
Stag Industrial Technical Analysis
Positive
36.32
Price Trends
34.25
Positive
34.50
Positive
35.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.53
Positive
57.99
Neutral
27.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.86, above the 50-day MA of 34.25, and above the 200-day MA of 35.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STAG.
Stag Industrial Risk Analysis
Stag Industrial disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stag Industrial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stag Industrial Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $6.69B | 24.32 | 10.18% | 3.65% | 9.18% | -7.05% | |
77 Outperform | $6.73B | 27.22 | 7.15% | 4.13% | 8.81% | 33.30% | |
75 Outperform | $6.02B | 29.44 | 5.33% | 3.37% | 22.17% | 4.34% | |
74 Outperform | $8.60B | 29.52 | 3.35% | 4.73% | 18.02% | 12.12% | |
68 Neutral | $2.53B | 43.69 | 2.98% | 6.31% | 5.68% | 358.78% | |
61 Neutral | $2.83B | 10.89 | 0.41% | 9.34% | 5.96% | -21.31% | |
48 Neutral | $4.78B | ― | -3.56% | 5.48% | -1.18% | 62.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
STAG
Stag Industrial
36.32
2.39
7.04%
TRNO
Terreno Realty
58.17
1.98
3.52%
FR
First Industrial Realty
49.13
3.47
7.60%
LXP
LXP Industrial Trust
8.69
0.30
3.58%
REXR
Rexford Industrial Realty
36.70
-5.88
-13.81%
COLD
Americold Realty
16.81
-7.63
-31.22%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.