Stag Industrial (STAG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.41B
• Dividend Yield: 4.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 9.62%
• EPS Growth: 31.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 91
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Industrial
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 191,036,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,525,698
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,589,222
• PEG Ratio: 0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.82
• 1Y Price Target: $41.44
• Price Target Upside: 7.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $903.47M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $43.00 ▲(11.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

STAG’s score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (notably strong cash flow generation) and supportive technical momentum. These positives are tempered by valuation (higher P/E), balance-sheet/leverage sensitivity, and earnings-call-flagged 2026 occupancy/lease rollover and refinancing headwinds.

Positive Factors

Cash flow strength

STAG’s materially improved operating and free cash flow profile supports durable REIT economics: high cash conversion provides reliable funds for dividends, development, and accretive acquisitions without relying solely on external capital. This strengthens long‑term cash coverage and financing flexibility.

Long-term net-lease portfolio

A portfolio concentrated in long-term net leases shifts operating expense responsibilities to tenants and creates predictable rental cash flows. This structural lease profile underpins steadier FFO and lower operating volatility over multiple years, aligning with the REIT’s capital deployment and dividend policy.

Leasing execution and pipeline

Robust leasing spreads, sustained deal activity and a development pipeline with high initial lease rates indicate the company can both retain rents and grow income organically. Accretive acquisitions at mid‑6% cap rates plus development yield support multi-year NOI and FFO expansion.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage profile

Leverage running near 5x EBITDA and a multi-year upward trend in debt-to-equity increase sensitivity to rising rates and refinance risk. Elevated leverage constrains balance sheet optionality, raises interest coverage pressure during downturns, and amplifies the impact of any cash flow softness.

Large 2026 lease rollover

Concentrated near‑term expirations create structural occupancy and re‑leasing risk: assumed ~75% retention implies sizable re‑let exposure that can depress occupancy, increase downtime and push higher tenant improvement/lease‑up costs, pressuring FFO and cash flow over the next 12–24 months.

Regional market weakness

Submarket weakness at key Southeast ports can produce longer lease‑up periods and weaker rent growth in those geographies. Geographic exposure to softer logistics hubs increases variability in portfolio performance and may slow overall portfolio NOI recovery even if national fundamentals improve.

Stag Industrial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant, industrial properties throughout the United States. By targeting this type of property, STAG has developed an investment strategy that helps investors find a powerful balance of income plus growth.

How the Company Makes Money

Stag Industrial generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of industrial properties. The company enters into long-term lease agreements with tenants, allowing it to secure consistent cash flow over extended periods. These leases are often structured as net leases, where tenants are responsible for property expenses such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance, thereby reducing the company's operating costs. Additionally, Stag Industrial may benefit from property appreciation and capital gains through strategic acquisitions and dispositions of properties. The company also engages in selective development projects, further diversifying its revenue streams. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for industrial space driven by e-commerce growth, favorable market conditions, and the company's ability to efficiently manage and maintain its properties.

Stag Industrial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid overall: steady revenue growth and strong, improving operating/free cash flow support the REIT model. Offsetting factors are rising leverage through 2024 and noted inconsistencies in 2025 statement line items (e.g., margin anomalies and debt shown as zero), which reduce confidence in the most recent year.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown consistently from 2020 to 2025 (ending at ~$845M in 2025), but the growth rate has clearly slowed recently versus the stronger gains seen earlier in the period. Profitability is generally solid with healthy net profit margins in the mid‑20% range in 2022–2024 and a step-up in 2025, but 2025 shows unusual profitability line items (e.g., near-zero gross profit and EBIT margins despite high net income), which raises some data-quality/one-time-item uncertainty and tempers the score.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a meaningful leverage profile typical of REITs, with debt-to-equity rising from ~0.64 (2020) to ~0.89 (2024), indicating a heavier reliance on debt over time. Equity has grown and returns on equity have been steady in the mid‑single digits to mid‑7% range, suggesting stable underlying profitability, but the leverage trend adds risk. 2025 debt is shown as zero (inconsistent with prior years), so leverage improvement cannot be confidently credited.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been resilient and trending upward over the period (roughly ~$294M in 2020 to ~$463M in 2025), supporting the quality of earnings. Free cash flow has improved materially since 2021 and is strong in the last two years, with free cash flow running at a large share of net income in 2022–2025 (near or above ~80% and reaching ~100% in 2025). The main weakness is variability in free cash flow growth (including a decline in 2021) and a softer cash-flow-to-income relationship in some years versus the best periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	845.18M	767.38M	707.84M	657.35M	562.16M
Gross Profit	518.44M	612.56M	568.24M	531.64M	454.17M
EBITDA	718.24M	599.51M	570.22M	535.29M	500.67M
Net Income	273.48M	189.22M	192.84M	178.33M	192.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.21B	6.83B	6.28B	6.18B	5.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.91M	36.28M	20.74M	25.88M	18.98M
Total Debt	3.29B	3.06B	2.66B	2.53B	2.25B
Total Liabilities	3.54B	3.30B	2.84B	2.73B	2.44B
Stockholders Equity	3.60B	3.46B	3.37B	3.38B	3.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	401.81M	375.06M	372.63M	335.22M	175.77M
Operating Cash Flow	463.39M	460.29M	391.09M	387.93M	336.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-497.30M	-731.06M	-320.35M	-447.52M	-1.22B
Financing Cash Flow	97.40M	286.29M	-75.67M	63.19M	887.12M

Stag Industrial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STAG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.48, above the 50-day MA of 37.78, and above the 200-day MA of 36.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STAG.

Stag Industrial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRNO	75 Outperform	$6.81B	16.74	10.28%	3.38%	21.13%	74.37%
EGP	74 Outperform	$10.16B	39.10	7.58%	3.15%	11.10%	-1.65%
STAG	71 Outperform	$7.41B	26.55	7.75%	4.02%	9.62%	31.08%
LXP	68 Neutral	$2.86B	26.66	5.45%	5.33%	6.98%	465.32%
FR	67 Neutral	$8.50B	33.34	9.27%	2.98%	9.66%	-23.17%
REXR	66 Neutral	$8.61B	43.15	2.50%	4.30%	10.27%	15.25%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%

Stag Industrial Corporate Events

Stag Industrial Expands ATM Equity Distribution With Huntington

On February 12, 2026, STAG Industrial, Inc. and its operating partnership entered into an additional equity distribution agreement with Huntington Securities, Inc. as sales agent, forward seller and/or forward purchaser, expanding the bank syndicate supporting the company’s at-the-market offering of up to $750 million of common stock. The new agreement and related master forward sale confirmation with Huntington, structured on substantially the same terms as existing arrangements with other financial institutions, enhance STAG Industrial’s flexibility to issue shares or use forward sales under its previously registered shelf program filed in February 2025, potentially broadening its access to equity capital for ongoing corporate and investment needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (STAG) stock is a Hold with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stag Industrial stock, see the STAG Stock Forecast page.