Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) AI Stock Analysis

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Rexford Industrial Realty

(NYSE:REXR)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:

$41.00

▲(10.01% Upside)

Action:DowngradedDate:02/12/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong growth, high property-level profitability, and improving operating cash flow) but is held back by weak technical momentum and a high P/E valuation. Earnings-call guidance and commentary were mixed: disciplined capital allocation and liquidity are positives, while occupancy, same-property NOI, and bad-debt headwinds point to a pressured near-term operating environment.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Margin Consistency

Rexford has delivered multi-year revenue growth with very stable gross and EBITDA margins. Consistently high property-level profitability supports durable cash generation, underwriting dividend coverage and reinvestment capacity through cycles, making core operations resilient over 2–6 months.

Strong Operating Cash Flow Trajectory

Operating cash flow expansion and a 2025 free-cash-flow rebound indicate the company can fund development, dividends and buybacks without excessive external financing. While cash-flow volatility and some reporting inconsistencies exist, the trend supports medium-term financial flexibility and capital deployment.

Disciplined Capital Allocation & Development Pullback

Management is actively reallocating capital: selling non-core assets, reducing development exposure and buying back shares. Pulling capital from lower-return development and freeing cash improves liquidity and lowers execution risk, strengthening balance-sheet optionality for value-accretive uses.

Negative Factors

Occupancy Decline & Lengthening Downtime

Lower occupancy and longer redevelopment downtime reduce near-term rental income and delay stabilization of repositioned assets. This creates durable pressure on same-property NOI and FFO until leasing cycles shorten and repositioned space is fully income-producing, a multi-quarter recovery risk.

Market Rent Deflation and Negative Net Absorption

Sustained rent deflation and negative net absorption constrain the firm's ability to re‑lease at higher rates. Structural downward pressure on market rents impairs re‑leasing spreads and same-store NOI, limiting revenue growth and margin expansion over the medium term until demand/supply dynamics improve.

Rising Bad Debt and Tenant Concentration Risks

Higher bad‑debt reserves and notable tenant vacates increase earnings volatility and reduce distributable cash. Concentration in larger spaces raises re‑letting and credit risk, potentially forcing concessions or lower effective rents and weighing on FFO and balance‑sheet resilience through the leasing cycle.

Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$8.63B

Dividend Yield4.3%

Average Volume (3M)2.54M

Price to Earnings (P/E)43.2

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth10.27%

EPS Growth15.25%

CountryUS

Employees271

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength53

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.30

Shares Outstanding231,843,840

10 Day Avg. Volume3,106,769

30 Day Avg. Volume2,535,984

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.50

Price to Book (P/B)1.06

Price to Sales (P/S)8.97

P/FCF Ratio43.14

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42

Enterprise Value/Revenue12.27

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.89

Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.67

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$42.07

Price Target Upside12.88% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

EPS Forecast (FY)1.14

Revenue Forecast (FY)$979.95M

Rexford Industrial Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRexford Industrial, a real estate investment trust focused on owning and operating industrial properties throughout Southern California infill markets, owns 232 properties with approximately 27.9 million rentable square feet and manages an additional 20 properties with approximately 1.0 million rentable square feet.

How the Company Makes MoneyRexford Industrial Realty generates revenue primarily through leasing its industrial properties to a variety of tenants, including logistics and e-commerce companies. The company benefits from long-term leases that provide stable and recurring rental income. Key revenue streams include base rent from tenants, reimbursements for property operating expenses, and income from property management services. Additionally, Rexford engages in property development and redevelopment, allowing it to enhance its portfolio and create value through increased rental rates and property appreciation. The company's focus on high-demand industrial markets and its strategic acquisitions contribute to its earnings, as does its established reputation and relationships with tenants in the logistics sector.

Rexford Industrial Realty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The call balanced concrete, proactive management actions (dispositions, share buybacks, cutting development exposure, and G&A discipline) and acceptable near-term financial performance (Q4 core FFO in line and full-year FFO at the high end) against clear market and portfolio headwinds (occupancy declines, continued rent deflation vs peak, negative net absorption, development impairments, and elevated bad-debt reserves). Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation and liquidity to navigate the cycle, but near-term operating metrics remain pressured.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Leasing and Value-Add Activity

Executed ~3.0 million square feet of leasing in the quarter; signed approximately 2.0 million square feet of repositioning and development leases in 2025 that are expected to generate nearly $40 million of annualized incremental NOI. Expect to stabilize and commence rent on ~1.2 million square feet in 2026 generating ~$20 million of annualized NOI (majority by midyear).

Core FFO Performance In Line and At Top of Range

Q4 core FFO per share was $0.59 (in line with expectations). Full-year 2025 core FFO per share, after adjustments, was $2.40, placing the company at the high end of initial expectations.

Active Capital Allocation — Share Buybacks and Dispositions

Repurchased $100 million of shares in the quarter and $250 million for full-year 2025. Opportunistically sold 7 properties in 2025 totaling $218 million (average cap ~4.2%). Targeting $400–$500 million of dispositions in 2026 (management expects roughly $450 million, with ~$230 million already under contract/accepted offer).

Decisive Reduction of Development Exposure

Re-underwrote development pipeline and identified 6 projects (~850,000 square feet) not moving forward; recognized $89 million of impairments related to those development sites and intend to sell these projects (all 6 currently under contract or accepted offer). Redirects ~$285 million of capital into higher-yielding uses.

Improving Operating Efficiency and Incentive Alignment

Targeted G&A as a percentage of revenue at 6% for 2026 (in line with commitment to be below peer average). Recalibrated short- and long-term executive compensation metrics and reduced absolute executive pay to better align with shareholders.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity Planning

At year-end cash was $166 million. Using the midpoint disposition expectation (~$450 million), management outlined ~$616 million of sources; after expected development/repositioning spend of ~$203 million in 2026, roughly $413 million of available cash to redeploy to highest risk-adjusted returns (including share repurchases and accretive projects).

Portfolio Quality and Market Position

Reinforced thesis on high-quality infill Southern California assets with differentiated location advantages and historically low supply under construction, positioning Rexford to capture upside when market inflects.

Negative Updates

Occupancy Decline and Portfolio Downtime

Total portfolio occupancy ended the quarter at 90.2%, down 160 basis points sequentially. Same-property pool adjustments make comparisons complex (appropriate starting same-property point ~95.6%), and management expects average occupancy of ~95% in 2026 with deceleration through the year (midpoint guide ~95%). Repositioning and redevelopment downtime lengthened to ~10–11 months (versus ~9 months prior).

Market Rent Pressure and Negative Net Absorption

Market rents within the portfolio down 1% in the quarter; CBRE data cited by management showed market rents down ~9% year-over-year and a 10-basis-point quarterly change in a different metric. Management noted market rents have declined ~20% since the early-2023 peak. Vacancy increased ~30 basis points in the quarter and net absorption was negative, indicating near-term leasing headwinds.

Development Impairments and Capital Write-Downs

Recognized $89 million of real estate impairments related to development sites that no longer meet investment hurdles. These impairments reflect material markdowns on previously held development opportunities.

Rising Bad Debt Reserve and Tenant Credit Concerns

Management increased bad debt guidance to ~75 basis points of revenue for 2026 (up from closer to ~25 basis points through the first three quarters of 2025). 2025 experienced ~50 basis points of bad debt tied to three tenants; Q4 included two large tenant vacates. Watchlist concentration is higher in logistics and includes larger spaces.

Re-leasing Headwinds and Notable Rent Roll-downs

Same-property NOI expected to decline ~2% in 2026. Re-leasing spreads are pressured; management expects net effective re-leasing spreads of 5–10% but cash re-leasing may be flat to negative ~5%. The early renewal with the largest tenant (Tireco) resets an above-market rent and results in a ~30% roll-down on that 1.1 million sq ft space, which management estimated reduces same-property NOI by ~50 basis points and decreases FFO per share by about $0.015 for 2026.

Market Leasing Activity Moderation

Leasing activity has moderated: activity exists on ~75% of vacant spaces (down from ~80% prior quarter) and leasing cycles are taking longer as tenants shop the market and seek more functional space or consolidation opportunities. Management stated they cannot yet call a market inflection point.

Cash Same-Store NOI and Guidance Headwinds

Management expects negative pressure on cash same-store NOI (midpoint cash guidance reflects a modest decline ~1–2%), driven by occupancy declines, reduced termination income, concessions, Tireco impact, and higher bad-debt assumptions.

Company Guidance

For 2026 Rexford guided core FFO per share of $2.35–$2.40, assuming same‑property NOI down ~2% (net effective), average occupancy of ~95%, net‑effective re‑leasing spreads of 5–10%, bad debt ~75 bps of revenue and G&A ~6% of revenue; management expects $400–$500M of dispositions (≈$450M midpoint, ≈$230M already under contract), has exited six near‑term development projects (~850k sq ft) and recognized $89M of impairments to free ~$285M of capital, plans to stabilize ~1.2M sq ft to generate ~$20M of annualized NOI while ~$12M of in‑place NOI will go offline, budgets ~ $203M of development/repositioning spend, starts 2026 with $166M cash (implying total sources of ≈$616M and roughly $413M available after spend for redeployment or opportunistic buybacks), and will continue to consider share repurchases subject to valuation, capital needs and balance‑sheet strength.

Rexford Industrial Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth, consistently high gross/EBITDA margins, and rising operating cash flow support a solid fundamental profile. Offsetting factors include a notable 2025 net margin step-down, moderately higher leverage versus 2021–2023, and some inconsistencies/missing linkage metrics in 2025 that reduce confidence in latest-period earnings-to-cash conversion.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Revenue growth has been strong and consistent over 2020–2025 (accelerating to ~52% in 2025), while gross profitability has remained very stable with gross margin holding around ~76–78%. EBITDA margin has also stayed high (~61–69%), supporting solid operating profitability. The key weakness is bottom-line volatility: net margin fell meaningfully in 2025 (~20%) from 2023–2024 levels (~29–30%), and EBIT in 2025 appears inconsistent versus the rest of the series (reported with a zero margin), which reduces confidence in the latest-period operating trend.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet looks generally healthy for an industrial REIT, with sizable equity (~$8.5B) supporting the asset base (~$12.6B) and moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.40 in 2024–2025). However, leverage has stepped up versus 2021–2023 levels (high-0.20s), driven by a higher debt load, and returns on equity remain modest (~2–3%), which can limit value creation if growth slows or financing costs rise.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow has grown steadily (from ~$183M in 2020 to ~$542M in 2025), and free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 (~$209M) after a weaker 2024 (~$106M). That said, free cash flow has been more volatile than earnings (negative growth in 2023 and 2024 before the sharp 2025 recovery), and some cash flow quality indicators are missing/appear inconsistent in 2025 (coverage and free-cash-flow-to-net-income shown as zero), limiting visibility into how well cash generation is tracking reported profits in the most recent year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	936.41M	797.83M	631.20M	452.24M
Gross Profit	775.41M	726.15M	613.35M	480.70M	344.52M
EBITDA	640.59M	614.10M	506.81M	383.67M	279.78M
Net Income	212.03M	273.80M	238.02M	167.58M	128.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.61B	12.65B	10.93B	9.26B	6.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	165.78M	55.97M	33.44M	36.79M	43.99M
Total Debt	3.50B	3.35B	2.23B	1.94B	1.40B
Total Liabilities	3.77B	3.92B	2.79B	2.34B	1.71B
Stockholders Equity	8.46B	8.32B	7.77B	6.56B	4.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	208.66M	105.53M	160.98M	192.60M	128.99M
Operating Cash Flow	542.09M	478.92M	427.55M	327.69M	231.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-125.06M	-1.84B	-1.68B	-2.45B	-1.91B
Financing Cash Flow	-307.22M	1.38B	1.25B	2.11B	1.55B

Rexford Industrial Realty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price37.27

Price Trends

50DMA

39.57

Negative

100DMA

40.54

Negative

200DMA

38.92

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.76

Positive

RSI

39.33

Neutral

STOCH

38.77

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REXR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.67, below the 50-day MA of 39.57, and below the 200-day MA of 38.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for REXR.

Rexford Industrial Realty Risk Analysis

Rexford Industrial Realty disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rexford Industrial Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rexford Industrial Realty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRNO	75 Outperform	$6.84B	16.80	10.28%	3.38%	21.13%	74.37%
EGP	74 Outperform	$10.20B	39.25	7.58%	3.15%	11.10%	-1.65%
STAG	71 Outperform	$7.30B	26.16	7.75%	4.02%	9.62%	31.08%
FR	67 Neutral	$8.25B	32.37	9.27%	2.98%	9.66%	-23.17%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
REXR	64 Neutral	$8.63B	43.24	2.50%	4.30%	10.27%	15.25%
LINE	54 Neutral	$8.36B	-49.70	-2.06%	6.18%	0.44%	75.40%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

REXR

Rexford Industrial Realty

37.27

-1.66

-4.27%

EGP

Eastgroup Properties

191.40

15.31

8.69%

STAG

Stag Industrial

39.25

5.13

15.04%

TRNO

Terreno Realty

65.73

0.97

1.49%

First Industrial Realty

62.00

7.30

13.34%

LINE

Lineage, Inc.

37.09

-15.09

-28.92%

Rexford Industrial Realty Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures

Rexford Industrial Highlights Strong 2025 Results Amid CEO Transition

Positive

Feb 4, 2026

On February 4, 2026, Rexford Industrial reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting solid operating performance despite a year-over-year decline in GAAP net income caused by property impairments and Co-CEO transition costs. For 2025, net income attributable to common stockholders fell to $200.2 million, or $0.86 per diluted share, from $262.9 million, while Core FFO rose 9.2% to $558.6 million and Core FFO per share increased 2.6% to $2.40, reflecting underlying cash-flow growth. The company delivered a 5.7% rise in total portfolio NOI, modest growth in same-property NOI and stronger 4.3% same-property cash NOI, supported by high average occupancy of 96.4%, robust leasing of 10.4 million square feet with 23.4% net effective and 10.7% cash rent increases on comparable deals, and strong demand for its highly leased industrial outdoor storage and improved land assets. Rexford also advanced its capital allocation strategy by selling seven properties for $217.5 million at a 12.4% unlevered IRR, repurchasing $250 million of stock, maintaining relatively conservative leverage with net debt to adjusted EBITDAre of 4.4x, and modestly raising its quarterly dividend after year-end. Operationally, the company executed over 2.0 million square feet of repositioning and development leasing in 2025, stabilized several projects representing $306 million of investment, and secured a long-term lease extension with its largest tenant, while preparing for an April 1, 2026 CEO transition as Chief Operating Officer Laura Clark assumes the top role and newly appointed independent director David Stockert joins the board, underscoring continued focus on governance and succession as Rexford positions itself within the competitive infill Southern California industrial market.

The most recent analyst rating on (REXR) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rexford Industrial Realty stock, see the REXR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Rexford Industrial Sets 2026 Pay Plan Amid CEO Transition

Neutral

Dec 22, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Rexford Industrial Realty’s compensation committee approved the 2026 executive compensation program and granted 2025 year-end equity awards, aligning pay structures with the previously announced leadership transition in which current COO Laura Clark will become CEO on April 1, 2026, and co-CEOs Michael S. Frankel and Howard Schwimmer will depart effective March 31, 2026. The package sets 2026 base salaries for Clark and other key executives, establishes a cash incentive plan for Clark, CFO Michael Fitzmaurice and General Counsel David Lanzer based 70% on Core FFO per diluted share and Same Property Portfolio NOI and 30% on qualitative strategic objectives, and provides Frankel and Schwimmer with pro rata 2026 bonuses through their separation date under existing transition agreements. The committee also approved 2025 equity incentives consisting of time-vesting LTIP units and performance-vesting LTIP units for Clark, Fitzmaurice and Lanzer, shifting the mix toward 60% performance-based awards and tying long-term incentives entirely to relative total shareholder return versus the Nareit Industrial REIT Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Equity REIT index, with an additional absolute TSR modifier and more restrictive change-in-control vesting terms for Fitzmaurice, underscoring a stronger link between executive pay, shareholder returns and the company’s long-term performance metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (REXR) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rexford Industrial Realty stock, see the REXR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Rexford Industrial Realty Expands Board with New Appointment

Positive

Nov 25, 2025

On November 24, 2025, Rexford Industrial Realty announced the expansion of its Board of Directors from eight to nine members, appointing David Stockert as an independent director effective January 1, 2026. Stockert, with extensive experience in industrial real estate and leadership roles, is expected to enhance the company’s governance and strategic direction. The board will reduce to seven directors after the next annual meeting, following the completion of service by two current directors. Stockert’s appointment is seen as a strategic move to bolster Rexford’s focus on value creation and capital allocation, aligning with its long-term growth strategy in the competitive Southern California industrial market.

The most recent analyst rating on (REXR) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rexford Industrial Realty stock, see the REXR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Rexford Industrial Realty Appoints New CEO Laura Clark

Positive

Nov 18, 2025

On November 17, 2025, Rexford Industrial Realty announced the appointment of Laura Clark as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Michael Frankel and Howard Schwimmer. This leadership transition is part of a multi-year succession plan, with Clark bringing extensive experience from her roles at Rexford and Regency Centers. The transition aims to ensure a seamless handover of leadership responsibilities, with the outgoing Co-CEOs having significantly grown the company’s portfolio and market capitalization since its IPO. The Board expressed confidence in Clark’s ability to lead the company forward, focusing on strategic vision and operational excellence.

The most recent analyst rating on (REXR) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rexford Industrial Realty stock, see the REXR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 12, 2026