Lincoln Edu (LINC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $549.08M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 232.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 16.40%
• EPS Growth: -62.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,875
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 31,592,808
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 211,675
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 232,329
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 3.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $22.80
• Price Target Upside: 31.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Lincoln Educational Services shows strong revenue growth and a positive outlook for future student starts and revenue. However, its high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and technical indicators point to a potential bearish trend. Profitability and cash flow challenges are key risks, despite robust guidance and strategic growth plans. The company's overall stability depends on addressing these financial concerns and achieving projected growth targets.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Q4 results surpassed expectations with a revenue increase of 16.4% to $119.4 million, driven by a 13.7% rise in average student population and tuition hikes.

Growth Prospects

The company's long-term outlook is positive, with significant growth anticipated in revenue and adjusted EBITDA by 2027.

Investment Rating

Analyst reaffirms OUTPERFORM investment rating and raises the price target to $22, signaling a potential 43% upside.

Negative Factors

Competitive Positioning

The stock trades at a small premium compared to its for-profit postsecondary education peers, which may affect investor interest.

Free Cash Flow

The company will be free cash flow negative in 2025 due to investments, impacting short-term financials.

Lincoln Edu Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) is a leading provider of diversified career-oriented post-secondary education. The company primarily offers programs in automotive technology, skilled trades, healthcare services, hospitality, and information technology. With a network of campuses across the United States, Lincoln Edu is committed to delivering high-quality, hands-on training designed to prepare students for entry-level positions in their chosen fields.

How the Company Makes Money

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation generates revenue primarily through tuition fees paid by students enrolled in its various programs. These fees are collected at the start of each term or course cycle. The company also benefits from additional revenue streams such as federal financial aid programs, including grants and loans, which are utilized by a significant portion of its student base. Furthermore, Lincoln Edu often engages in partnerships with industry leaders and employers to enhance its curriculum and improve job placement rates for graduates, thereby attracting more students and increasing enrollment. Ancillary services, like on-campus housing and other student-related services, may also contribute to its earnings.

Lincoln Edu Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lincoln Edu demonstrates promising revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow management. The recent financial data suggests potential structural changes or reporting issues with balance sheet figures. While operationally efficient, the company needs to address cash flow sustainability and verify financial structuring to ensure long-term stability.

Income Statement

Lincoln Edu has shown a positive trajectory in revenue growth over the years, with a revenue increase from $273.3M in 2019 to $440.1M in 2024. However, the gross profit margin is lower due to the most recent year having high revenue but not a corresponding increase in gross profit. The net profit margin has declined significantly from previous years, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. Stability in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests operational efficiency despite profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable asset base, but the complete absence of liabilities and equity in the latest year raises concerns about the accuracy or financial structuring. The past trend showed a healthy decreasing debt-to-equity ratio and improving equity ratio, but current data is insufficient for a comprehensive analysis of financial health.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has been negative in recent years, indicating potential liquidity issues. Despite a positive operating cash flow, the significant capital expenditures have led to cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, suggesting inefficiencies in converting net income to cash.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
440.06M	378.07M	348.29M	335.34M	293.10M
	Gross Profit
258.31M	215.79M	199.54M	196.41M	170.90M
	EBIT
15.18M	33.36M	11.11M	20.34M	7.30M
	EBITDA
28.61M	42.76M	23.51M	56.40M	22.18M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
9.89M	26.00M	12.63M	34.72M	48.56M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
59.27M	75.99M	60.83M	83.31M	38.03M
	Total Assets
436.56M	345.25M	291.57M	295.30M	245.19M
	Total Debt
177.56M	116.79M	100.63M	97.89M	78.42M
	Net Debt
118.29M	40.79M	54.56M	14.58M	40.39M
	Total Liabilities
258.29M	178.44M	146.69M	165.88M	154.12M
	Stockholders Equity
178.26M	166.80M	144.88M	129.42M	91.07M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-27.56M	-15.14M	-8.10M	19.92M	17.91M
	Operating Cash Flow
29.31M	25.56M	882.00K	27.45M	23.48M
	Investing Cash Flow
-46.97M	7.37M	-21.35M	37.85M	-5.48M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.33M	-2.94M	-12.55M	-20.01M	-18.62M

Lincoln Edu Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LINC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.58, above the 50-day MA of 16.55, and above the 200-day MA of 14.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LINC.

Lincoln Edu Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRDO	75 Outperform	$1.63B	11.29	16.39%	2.01%	-4.05%	1.50%
UTI	74 Outperform	$1.52B	28.77	21.41%	―	14.70%	275.89%
LAUR	73 Outperform	$2.94B	10.17	30.98%	―	5.55%	185.01%
STRA	73 Outperform	$1.96B	17.12	6.86%	2.96%	5.72%	11.02%
APEI	68 Neutral	$432.15M	44.06	5.41%	―	4.00%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.86B	11.61	3.16%	4.15%	2.41%	-21.45%
LINC	57 Neutral	$549.08M	54.74	5.73%	―	16.40%	-62.64%