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Lincoln Educational Services (LINC)
NASDAQ:LINC
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Lincoln Edu
(NASDAQ:LINC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(2.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held back mainly by mixed financial quality (higher leverage and persistently negative free cash flow) and a demanding valuation (high P/E). These are partially offset by strong earnings-call guidance and improving operating momentum, plus a technically strong uptrend that is tempered by overbought indicators.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Trend
Sustained top-line expansion from $293M (2020) to $518M (2025) and management's 2026 revenue guidance imply durable demand for LINC's offerings. Consistent revenue growth supports scale benefits, market penetration and capacity to fund strategic initiatives over the next several years.
Operational Efficiency & Scalable Campus Replication
Efficiency gains from the hybrid Lincoln 10.0 model and repeated program replications indicate durable operating leverage. Lowered education and SG&A expense ratios plus proven campus rollouts support margin expansion and repeatable organic growth as starts scale over multiple years.
Leadership Continuity
Contract extensions for the CEO and top executives reduce execution risk during an active expansion plan. Stability at the top helps ensure consistent strategy, faster campus rollouts and disciplined capital allocation — a durable positive for multi-year operational delivery.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Meaningfully higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to enrollment or margin shocks. With debt roughly equal to equity, the company faces greater refinancing and interest risks that could constrain strategic moves if operating momentum softens.
Persistently Negative Free Cash Flow
Despite improving operating cash flow, repeated negative free cash flow signals elevated reinvestment or working capital needs. Sustained FCF deficits can limit self-funding of expansion, increase reliance on debt or facility draws, and pressure long-term financial resilience.
High CapEx and Rising Depreciation
Large, ongoing capital spending and higher depreciation will constrain reported net income despite EBITDA growth. Elevated reinvestment needs increase cash requirements and earnings volatility, making profit conversion and free cash flow recovery slower across planning horizons.
Lincoln Edu (LINC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)460.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)56.8
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth16.90%
EPS Growth41.11%
CountryUS
Employees1,875
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding31,623,795
10 Day Avg. Volume745,608
30 Day Avg. Volume460,789
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)3.74
Price to Sales (P/S)1.44
P/FCF Ratio-27.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.20Price Target Upside2.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$555.58M
Lincoln Edu Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLincoln Educational Services Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides various career-oriented post-secondary education services to high school graduates and working adults in the United States. The company operates in two segments: Transportation and Skilled Trades, and Healthcare and Other Professions. It offers associate's degree, and diploma and certificate programs in automotive technology; skilled trades programs, including electrical, heating and air conditioning repair, welding, computerized numerical control, and electrical and electronic systems technology; health science programs comprising nursing, dental and medical assistant, claim examiner, medical administrative assistant, etc.; hospitality services programs, such as culinary, therapeutic massage, cosmetology, and aesthetics; and information technology programs. The company operates 22 schools in 14 states under the Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln College of Technology, Lincoln Culinary Institute, Euphoria Institute of Beauty Arts and Sciences, and other brand names. As of December 31, 2021, it had 13,059 students enrolled at 22 campuses. The company was founded in 1946 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyLincoln Edu generates revenue through multiple streams, including subscription fees for its learning management systems and virtual classroom services, which are charged to educational institutions and corporate clients. Additionally, the company offers premium content and courses, providing further income through sales and licensing agreements. Strategic partnerships with educational institutions and technology providers enhance LINC's market reach and contribute to its earnings by expanding its service offerings and driving user engagement. Furthermore, LINC may also benefit from grants and funding aimed at educational technology innovations, which can supplement its revenue.
Lincoln Edu Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicates strong momentum: robust revenue and student-start growth, sizeable adjusted EBITDA and cash-flow improvement, successful campus expansions and operational efficiencies from the hybrid teaching model. Management provided confident 2026 guidance and a clear expansion roadmap. Key near-term challenges include a decline in graduation rate, healthcare program disruptions and the impact of materially higher depreciation and continued high capital spending on net income. Additionally, the accounting change to include preopening/start-up costs in adjusted EBITDA reduces prior comparability. Overall, positive operational and financial progress outweigh the noted headwinds, though investors should monitor depreciation and start-up cost impacts on reported profitability.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue grew $25.2M (+21.4%) to $142.9M; full-year 2025 revenue rose 19.7% to $518.2M. Management guided 2026 revenue of $580M–$590M (~13% growth year-over-year).
Robust Student Starts and Population Expansion
Q4 student starts grew 15.7% (full-year starts +15.2%), marking 13 consecutive quarters of starts growth. Average student population increased ~17% and year-end population rose nearly 15% to ~17,000 (≈2,200 more students than prior year).
Material Margin and Profitability Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased 51.2% in Q4 to $29.1M (full-year adjusted EBITDA +60% to $67.1M). EBITDA margin expanded by >400 basis points to 20.4%. Net income improved over 70% to $12.7M (Q4); full-year adjusted net income rose 64% to $28.4M.
Exceptional Cash Flow and Strong Liquidity
Q4 operating cash flow totaled $59.3M (more than double prior year). Company ended year with nearly $29M cash, approximately $90M total liquidity and no debt outstanding.
Accelerated Campus Expansion and Program Replication
Completed significant expansions in 2025: relocated Nashville campus (state-of-the-art), Philadelphia relocation to 90,000 sq. ft. Levittown facility, and a Houston greenfield campus. Management targets initiating 2 new campus projects per year (Hicksville, NY expected Q4 2026; Roulette, TX expected Q1 2027). Replicated programs widely (12th replication in Plainfield) and launched multiple new programs, contributing meaningfully to start growth.
Operational Efficiencies from Hybrid Teaching (Lincoln 10.0)
Hybrid teaching platform contributed to instructional efficiencies: education service & facility expenses (ex-depr) improved to 33.0% of revenue from 34.7%; SG&A improved to 49.8% from 51.6%. Bad debt as a % of revenue improved to 10.9% from 13.1%.
Confident 2026 Guidance with High Adjusted EBITDA Growth
2026 guidance: adjusted EBITDA $72M–$76M (implying ~30% adjusted EBITDA growth), student start growth 8%–13%, diluted EPS $0.64–$0.74, capital expenditures $70M–$75M. Management expects operating leverage to drive EBITDA growth faster than revenue growth.
Growing Employer Partnerships and Workforce Demand
Expanded corporate relationships (e.g., New Jersey Transit training agreement, Johnson Controls expansion) and workforce link initiatives supporting placement opportunities and future revenue from employer-funded training.
Negative Updates
Decline in Graduation Rate
Graduation rate declined by ~200 basis points to approximately 67.5% in 2025, representing a deterioration in an important student outcome metric.
Healthcare and 'Other' Program Weaknesses
Healthcare & other professions (≈20% of population) saw a 2% decline in starts in the quarter/year, influenced by the exit of culinary and temporary enrollment suspensions (e.g., Paramus LPN enrollment paused; restarted with ~40 students vs prior ~250).
Rising Depreciation Pressuring Net Income
Depreciation is expected to increase to $33M in 2026 from $20.8M in 2025, which management says will constrain net income growth (net income guidance ~$20M–$23M; projected net income growth only ~7.5% despite stronger EBITDA growth).
Elevated and Shifted Capital Expenditures
2025 CapEx totaled $88M (exceeding guidance) as spend was pulled forward from 2026; 2026 CapEx guidance remains high at $70M–$75M. Management expects to utilize the credit facility during 2026, though plans to end the year with no debt.
Change to Adjusted EBITDA Treatment of Start-Up Costs
Beginning in 2026, preopening costs and first-year losses of new campuses/program replications (~$10M historically) will no longer be excluded from adjusted EBITDA, reducing comparability and likely lowering reported adjusted EBITDA versus prior treatment.
Operating Expense Growth and Meaningful Bad Debt
Total operating expenses rose to $125.1M (up ~$19M); depreciation in Q4 increased ~$3.5M. Although bad debt improved, it remains material at 10.9% of revenue.
Program Exits Reflect Portfolio Challenges
Company exited lower-ROI programs (culinary, cosmetology and other hospitality programs) over recent years, indicating portfolio realignment was necessary due to weak ROI in those offerings.
Company Guidance
Lincoln's 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $580–$590M (≈13% growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $72–$76M (≈30% growth), with net income of $20–$23M and diluted EPS of $0.64–$0.74; student starts are expected to grow 8–13% (high‑single to low‑double digit growth each quarter) with seasonality peaking in Q4. Capital expenditures are guided to $70–$75M (≈70% for growth initiatives, majority in H1), depreciation is expected to rise to ~$33M (from $20.8M in 2025), net interest expense ≈ $5M, and the tax rate ≈ 29% of pretax income; diluted shares are ~31.2M. Management will no longer exclude roughly $10M of new campus/prelaunch losses from adjusted EBITDA (the only add‑back will be noncash stock‑based comp), expects to use the credit facility during the year but finish 2026 with no debt outstanding, and projects continued operating leverage and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion as starts and revenue scale.Lincoln Edu Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement trends are improving (revenue growth and positive 2025 profitability), but margins remain modest versus earlier years. Balance sheet risk is higher due to increased leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.02). Cash-flow quality is mixed: operating cash flow strengthened in 2025, yet free cash flow has been negative for three consecutive years (2023–2025).Income Statement
Revenue has trended up steadily from $293.1M (2020) to $518.2M (2025), with growth improving to 4.75% in 2025 after a near-flat 2024. Profitability is positive in 2025 (net income $20.0M; ~3.9% net margin) and improved versus 2024, but margins remain well below the stronger levels seen in 2020–2021, indicating a less favorable profitability profile despite the rebound. EBITDA margin in 2025 (~5.8%) is modest and roughly in-line with 2024, suggesting limited operating leverage.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet has expanded (assets $245.2M in 2020 to $493.2M in 2025) with equity growing to $199.7M in 2025. However, leverage has increased meaningfully: total debt rose to $203.9M in 2025 and debt-to-equity moved up to ~1.02 (from ~0.69–0.76 in 2020–2022). This higher leverage reduces flexibility and raises risk if profitability or enrollment trends weaken.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow improved to $59.3M in 2025 (up from $29.3M in 2024), which is a clear positive for liquidity. However, free cash flow has been negative for three straight years (2023–2025), including -$27.3M in 2025, and free cash flow has not tracked accounting earnings (free cash flow to net income is negative in 2023–2025). The mix of positive operating cash flow but persistently negative free cash flow suggests elevated reinvestment needs and/or working-capital volatility.44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 518.24M | 440.06M | 378.07M | 348.29M | 335.34M |
| Gross Profit | 312.85M | 258.31M | 215.79M | 199.54M | 196.41M |
| EBITDA | 50.34M | 28.61M | 42.76M | 22.96M | 56.40M |
| Net Income | 20.00M | 9.89M | 26.00M | 12.63M | 34.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 493.16M | 436.56M | 345.25M | 291.57M | 295.30M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.52M | 59.27M | 75.99M | 60.83M | 83.31M |
| Total Debt | 203.86M | 177.56M | 116.79M | 100.63M | 97.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 293.48M | 258.29M | 178.44M | 146.69M | 153.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 199.69M | 178.26M | 166.80M | 144.88M | 141.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.32M | -27.56M | -15.14M | -8.10M | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 59.31M | 29.31M | 25.56M | 882.00K | 27.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -86.20M | -46.97M | 7.37M | -21.35M | 37.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.87M | -3.33M | -2.94M | -12.55M | -20.01M |
Lincoln Edu Technical Analysis
Positive
36.24
Price Trends
26.89
Positive
24.04
Positive
22.92
Positive
Market Momentum
2.46
Negative
77.55
Negative
86.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LINC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.52, above the 50-day MA of 26.89, and above the 200-day MA of 22.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.55 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LINC.
Lincoln Edu Risk Analysis
Lincoln Edu disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln Edu reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln Edu Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.99B | 37.52 | 17.44% | ― | 14.05% | 51.96% | |
68 Neutral | $828.66M | 34.98 | 11.20% | ― | 6.75% | 141.11% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $1.15B | 56.78 | 10.58% | ― | 16.90% | 41.11% | |
60 Neutral | $731.47M | 205.31 | 1.87% | ― | 2.53% | 95.79% | |
51 Neutral | $414.11M | -5.58 | -11.88% | ― | 2.20% | -229.99% | |
49 Neutral | $533.42M | -10.29 | -21.21% | ― | 48.81% | 61.64% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LINC
Lincoln Edu
36.24
18.05
99.23%
APEI
American Public Education
45.82
25.43
124.72%
UTI
Universal Technical Institute
36.20
9.12
33.68%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
2.19
-1.22
-35.78%
UDMY
Udemy Inc
5.03
-4.43
-46.83%
KLC
KinderCare Learning Companies Inc
3.50
-15.37
-81.45%
Lincoln Edu Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lincoln Edu Extends Executive Leadership Contracts Through 2028
Positive
Dec 23, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Lincoln Educational Services Corporation executed new employment agreements with its top five executives — CEO and President Scott M. Shaw, EVP and CFO Brian K. Meyers, EVP and COO Chad D. Nyce, SVP and General Counsel Alexandra M. Luster, and SVP and Chief Human Resources Officer Stephen E. Ace — primarily to extend their employment terms through December 31, 2028 as the prior contracts were set to expire at the end of 2025. The renewed agreements largely preserve existing terms while implementing higher base salaries effective January 1, 2026, and maintaining eligibility for performance-based annual bonuses and benefits, underscoring the company’s commitment to leadership continuity and operational stability for stakeholders over the next several years.
The most recent analyst rating on (LINC) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln Edu stock, see the LINC Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.