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Lincoln Edu
(NASDAQ:LINC)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(38.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/11/26
LINC scores as moderately attractive: improving operations and a very upbeat, guidance-raising earnings update are the biggest positives, reinforced by strong upward technical momentum. The main constraints are financial quality/structure—negative free cash flow and higher leverage—and a demanding valuation (P/E ~74), which together cap the overall score.
Positive Factors
Meaningful multi-year revenue growth
Sustained revenue scaling over multiple years indicates durable demand for Lincoln’s career-focused programs and effective enrollment execution. A larger revenue base supports operational leverage, campus utilization, and continued investment in program expansion, strengthening long-term growth runway.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage versus equity
Debt modestly exceeds equity, increasing fixed obligations and reducing financial flexibility. Elevated leverage can amplify downside during enrollment hiccups or margin pressure, limit ability to pursue opportunistic investments, and raise covenant or refinancing risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Meaningful multi-year revenue growth
Sustained revenue scaling over multiple years indicates durable demand for Lincoln’s career-focused programs and effective enrollment execution. A larger revenue base supports operational leverage, campus utilization, and continued investment in program expansion, strengthening long-term growth runway.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln Edu (LINC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)508.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)74.4
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth19.92%
EPS Growth84.00%
CountryUS
Employees2,590
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding31,720,728
10 Day Avg. Volume528,011
30 Day Avg. Volume508,278
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)3.74
Price to Sales (P/S)1.44
P/FCF Ratio-27.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda29.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.40Price Target Upside36.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$594.38M
Lincoln Edu Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, specializes in providing vocational and technical post-secondary education to both recent high school graduates and working adults throughout the United States. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
LINC generates revenue primarily from tuition and related student fees paid for enrollment in its education and training programs. Payment for these programs is funded through a mix of student out-of-pocket payments and third-party sources, includ...
Lincoln Edu Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial wins: robust student start growth (+19.5%), double-digit revenue growth (+22.5% to $144M), large adjusted EBITDA improvement (+84.7% to $15.5M), positive operating cash flow for the first time in years, and an upward revision to full-year guidance (revenue $590M–$600M; adjusted EBITDA $76M–$80M). Headwinds include higher operating expenses and planned new campus losses (Q1 new campus losses $2.8M; ~$10M expected for 2026), recurring incremental costs for books/laptops (~$750k/quarter), elevated SG&A as a percent of revenue, and modest health care program recovery. Overall, the positive revenue, profitability, cash flow, and liquidity developments outweigh the manageable near-term costs and execution risks.Positive Updates
Strong Student Start Growth
Student starts increased 19.5% in Q1 (more than 5,500 new students across 22 campuses); ending population rose ~2,800 students, ~18% higher year-over-year. About half of the start growth was organic (from campuses/programs opened before 2025).
Negative Updates
Higher Operating Expenses and New Campus Preopening Losses
Operating expenses rose to $137.6 million from $114.1 million year-over-year. Company incurred $2.8 million of new campus losses in Q1 and expects ~ $10 million of new campus losses in 2026 (new campus losses are now included in adjusted EBITDA).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Student Start Growth
Student starts increased 19.5% in Q1 (more than 5,500 new students across 22 campuses); ending population rose ~2,800 students, ~18% higher year-over-year. About half of the start growth was organic (from campuses/programs opened before 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 guidance to revenue $590–600M, adjusted EBITDA $76–80M, net income $23–26M, diluted EPS $0.74–0.83 and student growth of 10%–14%, with guidance now including ~ $10M of new‑campus losses and CapEx outlook of $70–75M (≈65% for growth); Q1 results that drove the raise included revenue $144M (+22.5%), adjusted EBITDA $15.5M (+84.7%) and margin ~11% (vs 7% PY), net income $4.4M (EPS $0.14), student starts +19.5% (>5,500) and ending population +~2,800 (~+18%), operating cash flow $4.6M (vs -$8.4M PY), Q1 CapEx ~$15M, total liquidity $72M (cash $16.7M, debt $5M) after increasing the credit revolver from $60M to $125M; other notable metrics: avg student population +18.2%, revenue per student +3.6%, incremental EBITDA margin ≈27% (≈40% ex new campuses), new campus losses in Q1 $2.8M, education/facility expenses ex‑depr 35.4% of revenue (vs 37.3%), SG&A 55% of revenue (vs 56.9%), bad debt 9.5% (vs 10.1%), an expected ~$750k/quarter laptop headwind, and reiterated 2030 targets of $850M revenue and $150M adjusted EBITDA.Lincoln Edu Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 544.69M | 518.24M | 440.06M | 378.07M | 348.29M | 335.34M |
| Gross Profit | 328.32M | 312.85M | 258.31M | 215.79M | 199.54M | 196.41M |
| EBITDA | 57.12M | 50.34M | 28.61M | 42.76M | 22.96M | 7.22M |
| Net Income | 22.41M | 20.00M | 9.89M | 26.00M | 12.63M | 34.72M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 486.73M | 493.16M | 436.56M | 345.25M | 291.57M | 295.30M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.69M | 28.52M | 59.27M | 75.99M | 60.83M | 83.31M |
| Total Debt | 206.55M | 203.86M | 177.56M | 116.79M | 100.63M | 97.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 287.91M | 293.48M | 258.29M | 178.44M | 146.69M | 153.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 198.83M | 199.69M | 178.26M | 166.80M | 144.88M | 141.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.12M | -27.44M | -27.56M | -15.14M | -8.10M | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 72.25M | 59.19M | 29.31M | 25.56M | 882.00K | 27.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -81.19M | -86.20M | -46.97M | 7.37M | -21.35M | 37.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.03M | -3.75M | -3.33M | -2.94M | -12.55M | -20.01M |
Lincoln Edu Technical Analysis
Positive
41.95
Price Trends
48.24
Positive
43.21
Positive
33.17
Positive
Market Momentum
2.02
Negative
63.69
Neutral
76.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LINC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.98, below the 50-day MA of 48.24, and above the 200-day MA of 33.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LINC.
Lincoln Edu Risk Analysis
Lincoln Edu disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln Edu reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln Edu Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $1.06B | 29.60 | 14.02% | ― | 3.84% | 87.34% | |
64 Neutral | $1.73B | 74.42 | 11.72% | ― | 19.92% | 84.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $2.68B | 62.01 | 13.02% | ― | 11.03% | -26.34% | |
58 Neutral | $417.68M | -11.15 | -30.05% | ― | 26.62% | 52.16% | |
50 Neutral | $598.06M | -1.42 | -55.02% | ― | 2.28% | -473.69% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LINC
Lincoln Edu
54.24
31.59
139.47%
APEI
American Public Education
58.27
26.55
83.70%
UTI
Universal Technical Institute
48.45
17.19
54.99%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
1.85
-1.71
-48.03%
KLC
KinderCare Learning Companies Inc
5.04
-4.54
-47.39%
Lincoln Edu Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln Edu Acquires Melrose Park Campus, Adds Mortgage
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
On July 7, 2026, Lincoln Technical Institute completed the $18.8 million acquisition of the facility and real property at 8315-8317 W. North Avenue in Melrose Park, Ill., where it had previously operated its campus under a lease from Melrose Omni,...
Business Operations and Strategy
Lincoln Edu to Acquire Melrose Park Campus Property
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Lincoln Technical Institute, Inc. agreed to purchase the Melrose Park, Illinois property at 8315-8317 W. North Avenue, which it currently leases for its campus, from Melrose Omni, LLC for approximately $18.8 million, subject to cu...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln Edu Expands Revolving Credit Facility for Growth
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Lincoln Educational Services entered into an amended and restated revolving credit agreement that replaces its February 2024 facility and expands total borrowing capacity from $60 million to $125 million, including a $10 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.