Lincoln Educational Services Corp. (LINC)
NASDAQ:LINC
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Lincoln Edu
(NASDAQ:LINC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(0.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality—higher leverage and persistently negative free cash flow despite improved operating results. Offsetting factors include a strong technical uptrend and upbeat 2026 guidance pointing to continued growth and margin expansion, with valuation appearing reasonable on earnings.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue & Enrollment Growth
Multi-year top-line growth and continued guidance-driven revenue expansion reflect durable demand for vocational training. Strong student starts and rising population create scalable tuition revenue that supports sustained operating leverage as campuses and programs scale.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage rising to roughly parity with equity increases financial risk and reduces balance sheet flexibility. Higher debt limits capacity to absorb enrollment weakness or fund opportunistic investments without increasing interest exposure or altering capital plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue & Enrollment Growth
Multi-year top-line growth and continued guidance-driven revenue expansion reflect durable demand for vocational training. Strong student starts and rising population create scalable tuition revenue that supports sustained operating leverage as campuses and programs scale.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln Edu (LINC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.26B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)626.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth16.90%
EPS Growth41.11%
CountryUS
Employees1,875
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.40
Shares Outstanding31,878,965
10 Day Avg. Volume584,148
30 Day Avg. Volume626,200
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)3.74
Price to Sales (P/S)1.44
P/FCF Ratio-27.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.00Price Target Upside7.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$584.35M
Lincoln Edu Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides various career-oriented post-secondary education services to high school graduates and working adults in the United States. The company operates in two segments: Tr...
How the Company Makes Money
LINC primarily makes money from student tuition and related education fees paid for its training programs. Revenue is recognized as educational services are delivered over the period of instruction. In addition to tuition, the company may earn anc...
Lincoln Edu Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicates strong momentum: robust revenue and student-start growth, sizeable adjusted EBITDA and cash-flow improvement, successful campus expansions and operational efficiencies from the hybrid teaching model. Management provided confident 2026 guidance and a clear expansion roadmap. Key near-term challenges include a decline in graduation rate, healthcare program disruptions and the impact of materially higher depreciation and continued high capital spending on net income. Additionally, the accounting change to include preopening/start-up costs in adjusted EBITDA reduces prior comparability. Overall, positive operational and financial progress outweigh the noted headwinds, though investors should monitor depreciation and start-up cost impacts on reported profitability.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue grew $25.2M (+21.4%) to $142.9M; full-year 2025 revenue rose 19.7% to $518.2M. Management guided 2026 revenue of $580M–$590M (~13% growth year-over-year).
Negative Updates
Decline in Graduation Rate
Graduation rate declined by ~200 basis points to approximately 67.5% in 2025, representing a deterioration in an important student outcome metric.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue grew $25.2M (+21.4%) to $142.9M; full-year 2025 revenue rose 19.7% to $518.2M. Management guided 2026 revenue of $580M–$590M (~13% growth year-over-year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lincoln's 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $580–$590M (≈13% growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $72–$76M (≈30% growth), with net income of $20–$23M and diluted EPS of $0.64–$0.74; student starts are expected to grow 8–13% (high‑single to low‑double digit growth each quarter) with seasonality peaking in Q4. Capital expenditures are guided to $70–$75M (≈70% for growth initiatives, majority in H1), depreciation is expected to rise to ~$33M (from $20.8M in 2025), net interest expense ≈ $5M, and the tax rate ≈ 29% of pretax income; diluted shares are ~31.2M. Management will no longer exclude roughly $10M of new campus/prelaunch losses from adjusted EBITDA (the only add‑back will be noncash stock‑based comp), expects to use the credit facility during the year but finish 2026 with no debt outstanding, and projects continued operating leverage and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion as starts and revenue scale.Lincoln Edu Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 518.24M | 440.06M | 378.07M | 348.29M | 335.34M |
| Gross Profit | 312.85M | 258.31M | 215.79M | 199.54M | 196.41M |
| EBITDA | 50.34M | 28.61M | 42.76M | 22.96M | 56.40M |
| Net Income | 20.00M | 9.89M | 26.00M | 12.63M | 34.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 493.16M | 436.56M | 345.25M | 291.57M | 295.30M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.52M | 59.27M | 75.99M | 60.83M | 83.31M |
| Total Debt | 203.86M | 177.56M | 116.79M | 100.63M | 97.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 293.48M | 258.29M | 178.44M | 146.69M | 153.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 199.69M | 178.26M | 166.80M | 144.88M | 141.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.44M | -27.56M | -15.14M | -8.10M | 19.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 59.19M | 29.31M | 25.56M | 882.00K | 27.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -86.20M | -46.97M | 7.37M | -21.35M | 37.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.75M | -3.33M | -2.94M | -12.55M | -20.01M |
Lincoln Edu Technical Analysis
Positive
40.84
Price Trends
31.70
Positive
26.85
Positive
24.31
Positive
Market Momentum
2.45
Negative
75.43
Negative
82.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LINC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.49, above the 50-day MA of 31.70, and above the 200-day MA of 24.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.43 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LINC.
Lincoln Edu Risk Analysis
Lincoln Edu disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln Edu reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln Edu Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.03B | 21.57 | 11.20% | ― | 6.75% | 141.11% | |
69 Neutral | $2.15B | 27.79 | 16.98% | ― | 14.05% | 51.96% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.26B | 14.71 | 10.75% | ― | 16.90% | 41.11% | |
58 Neutral | $654.75M | 227.74 | 1.74% | ― | 2.53% | 95.79% | |
47 Neutral | $263.93M | ― | -12.92% | ― | 2.20% | -229.99% | |
41 Neutral | $489.58M | -18.93 | -20.60% | ― | 48.81% | 61.64% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LINC
Lincoln Edu
41.61
26.00
166.56%
APEI
American Public Education
58.54
35.61
155.30%
UTI
Universal Technical Institute
39.66
13.13
49.49%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
1.95
-1.21
-38.29%
UDMY
Udemy Inc
4.64
-3.89
-45.60%
KLC
KinderCare Learning Companies Inc
2.16
-10.74
-83.26%
Lincoln Edu Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lincoln Educational Highlights Growth Strategy at 2026 Investor Day
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Lincoln Educational Services held its 2026 Investor Day at its Nashville, Tennessee campus and via live webcast, with CEO and President Scott Shaw and senior management outlining strategic priorities, growth initiatives and fina...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.