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American Public Education (APEI)
NASDAQ:APEI
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American Public Education
(NASDAQ:APEI)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(6.95% Upside)
American Public Education's stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and financial recovery, offset by moderate valuation concerns. The company's resilience in overcoming challenges and its strategic initiatives contribute positively, while technical indicators suggest a stable outlook.
Positive Factors
Enrollment Momentum
Sustained, broad-based enrollment gains across APUS, Rasmussen and Hondros signal durable demand and diversification across program types. This drives predictable tuition revenue, economies of scale, stronger cohort lifecycles, and enhances long-term margin and cash generation potential.
Strong Liquidity Position
A sizable cash balance and improved recurring cash flow from the preferred redemption and asset sale materially strengthen the balance sheet. That liquidity gives management flexibility for reinvestment, M&A, R&D or debt reduction, lowering funding risk over the medium term.
Robust Cash Generation
Strong FCF growth and high cash conversion ratios indicate the business reliably turns accounting profits into cash. This supports sustainable investment in programs, servicing of debt, and the ability to fund strategic initiatives without depending on external capital over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Modest Revenue Growth
Sluggish top-line expansion limits the company’s ability to leverage fixed costs and expand operating margins organically. With revenue growth near low-single-digits, sustained margin improvement will depend heavily on cost efficiencies or structural enrollment gains to drive meaningful long-term profit expansion.
Moderate Leverage & Weaker Equity Ratio
A 0.72 debt/equity profile and a falling equity ratio raise financial flexibility concerns if growth or cash flow deteriorates. Moderate leverage increases sensitivity to higher interest costs and may constrain funding for strategic investments or acquisitions during adverse cycles.
Institutional Combination Delay
A postponed institutional combination defers expected synergies, cost savings and cross-sell benefits, extending execution risk and the timeframe to realize scale economics. Prolonged integration timelines can raise operating costs and slow revenue growth realization from consolidation plans.
American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$777.84M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)221.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.8
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth6.75%
EPS Growth141.11%
CountryUS
Employees2,493
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding18,085,030
10 Day Avg. Volume200,028
30 Day Avg. Volume221,492
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.20
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio13.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.50Price Target Upside3.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmerican Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing. It offers 130 degree programs and 111 certificate programs in various fields of study, including business administration, health science, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts, as well as national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security. The company also provides nursing-and health sciences-focused postsecondary education, diploma in practical nursing, an associate degree in nursing, and an associate degree in medical laboratory technology. American Public Education, Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAPEI generates revenue primarily through tuition and fees paid by students enrolling in its online degree programs. The company benefits from a diverse student population, including active-duty military members and veterans who often utilize educational benefits through programs such as the GI Bill. Additionally, APEI has formed partnerships with various military and corporate organizations to offer tailored educational solutions, which further enhances its revenue streams. The company also explores opportunities for growth through strategic alliances and marketing initiatives aimed at expanding its reach and attracting new students.
American Public Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong financial and enrollment performance in most areas. However, challenges such as the government shutdown affecting military enrollments and a procedural delay in institutional combination plans were noted. Despite these challenges, the company demonstrated resilience and financial flexibility.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Guidance Across Key Metrics
American Public Education, Inc. exceeded guidance ranges for revenue, net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA for 3Q 2025, driven by registration and enrollment momentum and expanding margins.
Significant Enrollment Growth
APUS registrations increased by 8%, Rasmussen enrollments by 10%, and Hondros College of Nursing enrollments by 18% compared to 3Q 2024.
Improved Financial Position
Unrestricted cash and equivalents totaled $193.1 million as of 09/30/2025. The redemption of preferred equity and sale of Graduate School USA improved cash flow by approximately $10 million per year.
Strong Performance of Nursing and Healthcare Institutions
Rasmussen enrollment increased 10% in 3Q 2025 and 9% in 4Q 2025, while Hondros College of Nursing enrollment increased 18% in 3Q 2025 and 9% in 4Q 2025.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue increased by 7% to $163.2 million in 3Q 2025. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 60% to $20.7 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13%.
Negative Updates
Impact of Government Shutdown
The government shutdown muted military enrollments at APUS in October and November, affecting revenue and causing a decrease in course registrations.
Process Change for Institutional Combination
A new process was required for the planned combination of institutions, leading to a delay in the timeline for implementation to the third quarter of 2026.
Graduate School USA Sale Loss
The sale of Graduate School USA resulted in a loss of $3.9 million, though this was lower than initially forecasted.
Company Guidance
During the American Public Education, Inc. third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company announced that it exceeded its guidance ranges for all key financial metrics, including revenue, net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA. The third-quarter revenue was reported at $163.2 million, marking a 7% increase from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 60% to $20.7 million. Significant growth was noted in enrollment across various institutions: APUS registrations increased by 8%, Rasmussen enrollments rose by 10%, and Hondros College of Nursing saw an 18% growth compared to the third quarter of 2024. The company completed the sale of Graduate School USA, which had a positive impact on focusing its resources on core degree-granting businesses. The balance sheet was strengthened with unrestricted cash and equivalents totaling $193.1 million as of September 30, 2025, contributing to an improved capital structure. Despite challenges posed by the government shutdown affecting military enrollments, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth potential and continues to implement cost-saving measures to mitigate adverse impacts.American Public Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
American Public Education demonstrates a solid financial recovery with improved profitability and cash flow metrics. While leverage is moderate, the company shows efficient cash generation and operational improvements. Continued focus on revenue growth and maintaining financial stability will be key to sustaining this positive trajectory.Income Statement
American Public Education shows a strong recovery in profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 4.44% compared to a negative margin in previous years. Revenue growth is modest at 1.57% TTM, indicating stability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at over 51%, and EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved significantly, reflecting operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.72 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved to 9.73% TTM, indicating better utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio has decreased slightly, which may indicate increased financial risk.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow growth is robust at 19.42% TTM, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.81, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests good cash conversion, supporting future investments and debt servicing.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 654.64M | 624.56M | 600.54M | 606.33M | 418.80M | 321.79M |
| Gross Profit | 354.92M | 328.86M | 307.68M | 317.86M | 246.18M | 199.62M |
| EBITDA | 66.43M | 52.37M | -20.49M | -101.39M | 48.20M | 38.59M |
| Net Income | 31.91M | 16.11M | -47.29M | -114.99M | 17.75M | 18.82M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 525.30M | 570.10M | 557.39M | 685.25M | 725.61M | 371.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 191.34M | 131.93M | 116.66M | 129.46M | 122.63M | 226.49M |
| Total Debt | 166.24M | 200.62M | 204.73M | 208.97M | 257.42M | 8.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 245.96M | 266.22M | 265.41M | 335.52M | 310.00M | 64.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 279.34M | 303.88M | 291.98M | 349.73M | 415.61M | 306.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.97M | 27.79M | 31.62M | 12.83M | 4.44M | 39.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 75.11M | 48.87M | 45.51M | 29.21M | 16.27M | 44.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 7.10M | -21.08M | -13.77M | -13.67M | -336.67M | -4.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.32M | -13.19M | -16.86M | -35.71M | 242.34M | -15.71M |
American Public Education Technical Analysis
Positive
43.01
Price Trends
38.63
Positive
37.21
Positive
33.11
Positive
Market Momentum
1.27
Negative
66.78
Neutral
57.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.61, above the 50-day MA of 38.63, and above the 200-day MA of 33.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEI.
American Public Education Risk Analysis
American Public Education disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Public Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $777.84M | 33.80 | 11.20% | ― | 6.75% | 141.11% | |
68 Neutral | $696.23M | -175.00 | -1.78% | ― | 2.53% | 95.79% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $840.24M | 56.31 | 7.94% | ― | 16.90% | 41.11% | |
55 Neutral | $1.18B | 57.95 | ― | ― | -1.51% | 155.73% | |
49 Neutral | $538.30M | -9.73 | -21.21% | ― | 48.81% | 61.64% | |
45 Neutral | $78.68M | -0.96 | -46.37% | ― | -32.37% | 90.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.