American Public Education (APEI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $516.36M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 288.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 5.50%
• EPS Growth: 338.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,493
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 18,067,135
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 289,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 288,667
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.17
• 1Y Price Target: $35.14
• Price Target Upside: 22.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(11.97% Upside)

American Public Education's strong earnings call performance and solid financial position are the primary drivers of its overall stock score. The company has demonstrated significant growth in key areas, despite some challenges in cost management and valuation concerns. The absence of technical analysis data slightly impacts the score, but the positive outlook from the earnings call and financial stability provide a solid foundation for future growth.

Positive Factors

Earnings

American Public Education reported second-quarter results that topped expectations, leading to increased full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Investment Rating

Analysts are reiterating the OUTPERFORM investment rating and raising the 12-month price target to $36, representing approximately 21% upside from current levels.

Valuation

APEI's shares are trading at a significant discount compared to the for-profit postsecondary peer group average, with expectations for enrollment growth and margin expansion.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

The full-year earnings guidance for diluted EPS is below its prior guidance, taking into account the loss on the preferred equity redemption and losses associated with the sale of Graduate School.

Segment Performance

Revenue declined by 47% at Graduate School USA, highlighting a significant underperformance in that segment before its sale.

American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is a leading provider of online post-secondary education, primarily focused on serving the needs of military service members, veterans, and working adults. The company operates through its subsidiaries, including American Public University System (APUS) and Hondros College of Nursing, offering a diverse range of degree programs and courses across various disciplines, including liberal arts, business, education, and healthcare.

How the Company Makes Money

APEI generates revenue primarily through tuition and fees paid by students enrolled in its degree programs and courses. The company benefits from a significant number of military and veteran students, who often utilize federal financial aid programs such as the GI Bill. Additionally, APEI has established partnerships with various military organizations and employers, which can enhance enrollment and retention rates. The company's revenue model is also supported by an emphasis on online education, allowing for lower operational costs compared to traditional brick-and-mortar institutions, thus contributing to its profitability.

American Public Education Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Public Education demonstrates a positive growth trajectory with improving profitability and stable financial health. While revenue and operational efficiency have shown significant gains, profitability margins and cash flow management present areas for further enhancement. The company's prudent use of leverage and robust cash generation capacity are strengths, but fluctuations in financial metrics warrant careful monitoring.

Income Statement

American Public Education has shown a positive revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue of $634.68 million, marking an increase compared to the previous periods. The gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 50.8% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains modest at around 3.86% for TTM, suggesting room for improvement in overall profitability. Notably, the EBIT margin improved significantly from negative to positive in recent periods, reflecting better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a stable equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 in the TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. Stockholders' equity represents a substantial portion of total assets, with an equity ratio of approximately 53.6%, reflecting financial stability. However, the historical fluctuations in total debt and equity levels suggest potential risks in financial management. The return on equity (ROE) has improved but remains moderate at 7.9% for TTM.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong free cash flow growth rate in the most recent period, driven by increased operating cash flow of $65.13 million for TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating effective cash generation relative to net earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio also suggests efficient cash utilization. However, historical volatility in capital expenditures and financing activities could pose risks to cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	644.55M	624.56M	600.54M	606.33M	418.80M	321.79M
Gross Profit	334.95M	328.86M	307.68M	317.86M	246.18M	199.62M
EBITDA	61.96M	52.37M	-20.49M	-101.39M	50.77M	38.59M
Net Income	28.61M	16.11M	-47.29M	-114.97M	17.75M	18.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	537.37M	570.10M	557.39M	615.06M	725.61M	371.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	176.58M	158.94M	116.66M	102.56M	122.63M	227.69M
Total Debt	195.67M	200.62M	204.73M	208.97M	243.71M	8.85M
Total Liabilities	265.13M	266.22M	265.41M	265.33M	310.00M	64.09M
Stockholders Equity	272.24M	303.88M	291.98M	349.73M	415.61M	306.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.22M	27.79M	31.62M	12.83M	4.44M	39.88M
Operating Cash Flow	67.48M	48.87M	45.51M	29.21M	16.27M	44.81M
Investing Cash Flow	5.68M	-21.08M	-13.77M	-13.67M	-336.67M	-4.16M
Financing Cash Flow	-52.78M	-13.19M	-16.86M	-35.71M	242.34M	-15.71M

American Public Education Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.57, below the 50-day MA of 29.42, and above the 200-day MA of 23.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APEI.

American Public Education Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRDO	78 Outperform	$2.08B	13.87	16.39%	1.63%	15.99%	13.25%
LOPE	77 Outperform	$5.56B	24.00	30.77%	―	6.52%	11.72%
UTI	72 Outperform	$1.39B	22.41	23.11%	―	14.56%	127.02%
STRA	71 Outperform	$1.86B	16.20	6.89%	3.08%	4.31%	-1.08%
APEI	69 Neutral	$516.36M	27.09	10.20%	―	5.50%	338.59%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.97B	14.56	-8.07%	3.13%	2.79%	-9.84%
LINC	58 Neutral	$606.44M	41.79	8.27%	―	14.53%	75.66%

American Public Education Corporate Events

American Public Education Eliminates Series A Preferred Stock

On June 23, 2025, American Public Education, Inc. filed a Certificate of Elimination to remove all matters related to its Series A Senior Preferred Stock from its Charter. On the same day, the company redeemed all 400 outstanding shares of this Preferred Stock at $111,137.88 per share, including accrued and unpaid dividends, totaling $44,455,152.00.

The most recent analyst rating on (APEI) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Public Education stock, see the APEI Stock Forecast page.

American Public Education Announces Preferred Stock Redemption

On June 13, 2025, American Public Education, Inc. announced its decision to redeem all 400 outstanding shares of its Series A Senior Preferred Stock on June 23, 2025. The redemption will be at approximately $111,137.88 per share, including accrued and unpaid dividends, totaling around $44.46 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (APEI) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Public Education stock, see the APEI Stock Forecast page.

American Public Education Highlights Strong Q1 2025 Performance

On June 5, 2025, American Public Education, Inc. released a supplemental financial presentation to be used in investor meetings, highlighting its strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported a revenue of $164.6 million and a net income of $7.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, exceeding previous guidance. APEI continues to experience positive enrollment momentum, particularly in its nursing and military education programs, and is planning a consolidation of its institutions to enhance operational efficiency. The company’s robust financial standing and strategic focus on high-demand education sectors position it well for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (APEI) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Public Education stock, see the APEI Stock Forecast page.

American Public Education Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

American Public Education held its Annual Meeting on May 23, 2025, where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors saw Granetta B. Blevins, Michael D. Braner, Anna M. Fabrega, James Kenigsberg, Daniel S. Pianko, Angela K. Selden, and Richard J. Statuto elected to the Board. Stockholders also approved a Plan Amendment, the compensation for named executive officers, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (APEI) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Public Education stock, see the APEI Stock Forecast page.