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American Public Education (APEI)
NASDAQ:APEI

American Public Education (APEI) AI Stock Analysis

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APEI

American Public Education

(NASDAQ:APEI)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▼(-0.96% Downside)
American Public Education's stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and financial recovery, offset by moderate valuation concerns. The company's resilience in overcoming challenges and its strategic initiatives contribute positively, while technical indicators suggest a stable outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The 7% revenue growth indicates strong demand for APEI's educational offerings, suggesting a robust market position and potential for continued expansion.
Enrollment Growth
Significant enrollment growth across institutions reflects APEI's ability to attract students, enhancing revenue stability and long-term growth prospects.
Cash Position
A strong cash position provides APEI with financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and manage potential economic challenges.
Negative Factors
Impact of Government Shutdown
The impact of the government shutdown on military enrollments highlights vulnerability to external factors, potentially affecting revenue stability.
Institutional Combination Delay
Delays in institutional combination plans may hinder strategic growth initiatives, affecting long-term operational efficiency and synergy realization.
Graduate School USA Sale Loss
The financial loss from the sale of Graduate School USA indicates potential challenges in asset management and strategic divestments.

American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmerican Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is a leading provider of online higher education, primarily serving adult learners and military personnel. The company operates through its subsidiaries, including American Public University System (APUS) and other educational institutions, offering a wide range of degree programs and courses in various fields such as business, education, healthcare, and information technology. APEI focuses on providing accessible and affordable education to students through innovative online learning platforms and a commitment to student success.
How the Company Makes MoneyAPEI generates revenue primarily through tuition and fees paid by students enrolling in its online degree programs. The company benefits from a diverse student population, including active-duty military members and veterans who often utilize educational benefits through programs such as the GI Bill. Additionally, APEI has formed partnerships with various military and corporate organizations to offer tailored educational solutions, which further enhances its revenue streams. The company also explores opportunities for growth through strategic alliances and marketing initiatives aimed at expanding its reach and attracting new students.

American Public Education Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong financial and enrollment performance in most areas. However, challenges such as the government shutdown affecting military enrollments and a procedural delay in institutional combination plans were noted. Despite these challenges, the company demonstrated resilience and financial flexibility.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Guidance Across Key Metrics
American Public Education, Inc. exceeded guidance ranges for revenue, net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA for 3Q 2025, driven by registration and enrollment momentum and expanding margins.
Significant Enrollment Growth
APUS registrations increased by 8%, Rasmussen enrollments by 10%, and Hondros College of Nursing enrollments by 18% compared to 3Q 2024.
Improved Financial Position
Unrestricted cash and equivalents totaled $193.1 million as of 09/30/2025. The redemption of preferred equity and sale of Graduate School USA improved cash flow by approximately $10 million per year.
Strong Performance of Nursing and Healthcare Institutions
Rasmussen enrollment increased 10% in 3Q 2025 and 9% in 4Q 2025, while Hondros College of Nursing enrollment increased 18% in 3Q 2025 and 9% in 4Q 2025.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue increased by 7% to $163.2 million in 3Q 2025. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 60% to $20.7 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13%.
Negative Updates
Impact of Government Shutdown
The government shutdown muted military enrollments at APUS in October and November, affecting revenue and causing a decrease in course registrations.
Process Change for Institutional Combination
A new process was required for the planned combination of institutions, leading to a delay in the timeline for implementation to the third quarter of 2026.
Graduate School USA Sale Loss
The sale of Graduate School USA resulted in a loss of $3.9 million, though this was lower than initially forecasted.
Company Guidance
During the American Public Education, Inc. third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company announced that it exceeded its guidance ranges for all key financial metrics, including revenue, net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA. The third-quarter revenue was reported at $163.2 million, marking a 7% increase from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 60% to $20.7 million. Significant growth was noted in enrollment across various institutions: APUS registrations increased by 8%, Rasmussen enrollments rose by 10%, and Hondros College of Nursing saw an 18% growth compared to the third quarter of 2024. The company completed the sale of Graduate School USA, which had a positive impact on focusing its resources on core degree-granting businesses. The balance sheet was strengthened with unrestricted cash and equivalents totaling $193.1 million as of September 30, 2025, contributing to an improved capital structure. Despite challenges posed by the government shutdown affecting military enrollments, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth potential and continues to implement cost-saving measures to mitigate adverse impacts.

American Public Education Financial Statement Overview

Summary
American Public Education demonstrates a solid financial recovery with improved profitability and cash flow metrics. While leverage is moderate, the company shows efficient cash generation and operational improvements. Continued focus on revenue growth and maintaining financial stability will be key to sustaining this positive trajectory.
Income Statement
75
Positive
American Public Education shows a strong recovery in profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 4.44% compared to a negative margin in previous years. Revenue growth is modest at 1.57% TTM, indicating stability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at over 51%, and EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved significantly, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.72 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved to 9.73% TTM, indicating better utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio has decreased slightly, which may indicate increased financial risk.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow growth is robust at 19.42% TTM, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.81, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests good cash conversion, supporting future investments and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue654.64M624.56M600.54M606.33M418.80M321.79M
Gross Profit354.92M328.86M307.68M317.86M246.18M199.62M
EBITDA66.43M52.37M-20.49M-101.39M48.20M38.59M
Net Income31.91M16.11M-47.29M-114.99M17.75M18.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets525.30M570.10M557.39M685.25M725.61M371.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments191.34M131.93M116.66M129.46M122.63M226.49M
Total Debt166.24M200.62M204.73M208.97M257.42M8.85M
Total Liabilities245.96M266.22M265.41M335.52M310.00M64.09M
Stockholders Equity279.34M303.88M291.98M349.73M415.61M306.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow59.97M27.79M31.62M12.83M4.44M39.88M
Operating Cash Flow75.11M48.87M45.51M29.21M16.27M44.81M
Investing Cash Flow7.10M-21.08M-13.77M-13.67M-336.67M-4.16M
Financing Cash Flow-51.32M-13.19M-16.86M-35.71M242.34M-15.71M

American Public Education Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price38.37
Price Trends
50DMA
35.25
Positive
100DMA
34.26
Positive
200DMA
30.41
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.93
Negative
RSI
69.59
Neutral
STOCH
80.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.89, above the 50-day MA of 35.25, and above the 200-day MA of 30.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEI.

American Public Education Risk Analysis

American Public Education disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

American Public Education Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$693.92M29.2911.20%6.75%141.11%
68
Neutral
$862.34M-222.76-1.78%2.53%95.79%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
53
Neutral
$753.91M52.637.94%16.90%41.11%
49
Neutral
$574.83M-11.09-21.21%48.81%61.64%
46
Neutral
$1.07B54.49-1.51%155.73%
44
Neutral
$103.78M-1.32-46.37%-32.37%90.99%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
APEI
American Public Education
38.37
17.51
83.94%
LINC
Lincoln Edu
23.84
8.68
57.26%
CHGG
Chegg
0.95
-0.70
-42.42%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
2.36
<0.01
0.43%
DAO
Youdao
8.98
1.85
25.95%
UDMY
Udemy Inc
5.97
-2.00
-25.09%

American Public Education Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Public Education Appoints New CFO Edward Codispoti
Positive
Oct 20, 2025

On October 20, 2025, American Public Education, Inc. announced the appointment of Edward H. Codispoti as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Richard Sunderland, Jr. Mr. Codispoti brings over 25 years of financial leadership experience, most recently serving as CFO of NV5 Global, Inc. His appointment is expected to enhance APEI’s financial strategy and support its growth initiatives, as the company continues to focus on empowering students and advancing its educational mission.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025