American Public Education (APEI)
NASDAQ:APEI
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American Public Education
(NASDAQ:APEI)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(9.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability, cash flow, and sharply lower leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook with supportive 2026 guidance and capital allocation actions. Offsetting factors are an overextended technical setup (very high RSI/Stoch) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~21.6 with no dividend yield provided), plus uncertainty created by the reported 2025 revenue collapse/missing operating line items in the financial statement data.
Positive Factors
Stronger balance sheet and lower leverage
Debt reduced sharply to roughly $68M in 2025 and equity remains sizable, producing a low debt-to-equity (~0.23) and net-cash flexibility. This durable capital structure improves resilience to enrollment volatility, funds strategic investments, supports refinancing and buybacks, and reduces interest sensitivity.
Negative Factors
Dependence on federal tuition assistance (APUS exposure)
A material share of APUS students rely on Military Tuition Assistance and VA benefits, so federal funding interruptions can swiftly reduce registrations and revenue. This structural dependency creates recurring policy and timing risk that can materially swing quarterly and annual results.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stronger balance sheet and lower leverage
Debt reduced sharply to roughly $68M in 2025 and equity remains sizable, producing a low debt-to-equity (~0.23) and net-cash flexibility. This durable capital structure improves resilience to enrollment volatility, funds strategic investments, supports refinancing and buybacks, and reduces interest sensitivity.
Read all positive factors
American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)221.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth6.75%
EPS Growth141.11%
CountryUS
Employees2,493
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding18,380,440
10 Day Avg. Volume200,028
30 Day Avg. Volume221,492
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio14.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.33Price Target Upside-2.07% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$685.85M
American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of...
How the Company Makes Money
APEI primarily makes money by charging tuition and education-related fees for online academic programs delivered through APUS (e.g., undergraduate and graduate degree programs and other credit-bearing offerings). Revenue is recognized based on the...
American Public Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material operational and financial improvements: full-year consolidated revenue growth (3.9% / ~7% on an apples-to-apples basis), strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+18.6%) and a large swing in net income (+152%). Nursing and healthcare units (Rasmussen and Hondros) delivered outsized enrollment and revenue gains, and the company strengthened its balance sheet through debt refinancing and liquidity increases. Management acknowledged a meaningful but manageable disruption at APUS from a federal government shutdown that depressed Q4 results and registrations, but highlighted a strong rebound in TA registrations and provided constructive full-year 2026 guidance. Overall, positive execution on cost savings, portfolio simplification, and strategic consolidation paired with continued organic growth visibility outweighed the near-term operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue for FY2025 grew to $648.9M, a 3.9% year-over-year increase versus 2024. Excluding the midyear sale of Graduate School USA, comparable consolidated revenue growth was approximately 7%.
Negative Updates
APUS Q4 Revenue and Registration Declines Due to Federal Shutdown
APUS Q4 revenue declined 13.8% YoY to $71.0M and net course registrations fell 15.3% YoY (82,200 registrations) as a result of a 43-day federal government shutdown that interrupted Military Tuition Assistance (TA) registrations in Oct–Nov.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue for FY2025 grew to $648.9M, a 3.9% year-over-year increase versus 2024. Excluding the midyear sale of Graduate School USA, comparable consolidated revenue growth was approximately 7%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
APEI's 2026 guidance calls for full‑year revenue of $685–695 million, adjusted EBITDA of $91.5–100.5 million, net income available to common stockholders of $41.3–47.6 million, diluted EPS of $2.15–2.47, and CapEx of $28–32 million (about $7 million of which is expected for new campus openings). For Q1 2026 the company expects revenue of $173–175 million, adjusted EBITDA of $25.5–27.0 million, net income of $11.1–12.2 million and diluted EPS of $0.58–0.64 (note Q1 2025 comparables include $3.7 million of Graduate School revenue). Management also cited expected margin expansion from enrollment momentum and synergies, refinancing benefits (debt principal reduced to $90 million, ~375 bps lower borrowing rate and roughly $3.7 million of annual interest savings), interest income roughly offsetting interest expense in 2026, a $50 million share repurchase authorization, and a strong liquidity position (cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $176.5 million and net cash of $80.1 million as of 12/31/25).American Public Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 648.86M | 624.56M | 600.54M | 606.33M | 418.80M |
| Gross Profit | 335.69M | 328.86M | 307.68M | 317.86M | 246.18M |
| EBITDA | 70.01M | 52.37M | -20.49M | -101.39M | 48.20M |
| Net Income | 31.56M | 16.11M | -47.29M | -114.99M | 17.75M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 543.43M | 570.10M | 557.39M | 685.25M | 725.61M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.50M | 131.93M | 116.66M | 129.46M | 122.63M |
| Total Debt | 162.96M | 200.62M | 204.73M | 208.97M | 257.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 248.65M | 266.22M | 265.41M | 335.52M | 310.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 294.78M | 303.88M | 291.98M | 349.73M | 415.61M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 46.10M | 27.79M | 31.62M | 12.83M | 4.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 61.97M | 48.87M | 45.51M | 29.21M | 16.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 4.80M | -21.08M | -13.77M | -13.67M | -336.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -49.21M | -13.19M | -16.86M | -35.71M | 242.34M |
American Public Education Technical Analysis
Positive
58.54
Price Trends
45.85
Positive
40.81
Positive
36.59
Positive
Market Momentum
3.42
Negative
75.33
Negative
85.87
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.34, above the 50-day MA of 45.85, and above the 200-day MA of 36.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEI.
American Public Education Risk Analysis
American Public Education disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Public Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.08B | 21.57 | 11.20% | ― | 6.75% | 141.11% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.33B | 14.71 | 10.75% | ― | 16.90% | 41.11% | |
58 Neutral | $676.63M | 227.74 | 1.74% | ― | 2.53% | 95.79% | |
55 Neutral | $1.23B | 77.54 | -5.25% | ― | -1.51% | 155.73% | |
43 Neutral | $65.96M | -0.97 | -67.91% | ― | -32.37% | 90.99% | |
41 Neutral | $474.97M | -18.93 | -20.60% | ― | 48.81% | 61.64% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
APEI
American Public Education
58.54
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153.09%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.