American Public Education, Inc. (APEI)
NASDAQ:APEI
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American Public Education
(NASDAQ:APEI)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
▼(-7.59% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profitability recovery, stronger leverage profile, and solid cash generation) and a positive earnings update with raised guidance. Offsetting these positives, technical indicators show weak near-term momentum with the price below key moving averages and a negative MACD, while valuation appears reasonable but not decisively cheap and lacks dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for reinvestment, share repurchases and M&A optionality. Robust FCF reduces reliance on external finance and supports capital allocation through cycles, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Regulatory approval dependency
Final regulatory sign-off is required to consummate the institutional combination and demerger; delays or adverse conditions could impede anticipated operational or strategic benefits, prolong regulatory uncertainty and affect access to federal funding channels for students.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for reinvestment, share repurchases and M&A optionality. Robust FCF reduces reliance on external finance and supports capital allocation through cycles, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$907.45M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)262.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.2
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth3.84%
EPS Growth87.34%
CountryUS
Employees2,493
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.96
Shares Outstanding18,343,489
10 Day Avg. Volume238,769
30 Day Avg. Volume262,923
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio14.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$63.60Price Target Upside4.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$690.92M
American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of...
How the Company Makes Money
APEI primarily makes money by charging tuition and education-related fees for online academic programs delivered through APUS (e.g., undergraduate and graduate degree programs and other credit-bearing offerings). Revenue is recognized based on the...
American Public Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a substantially positive operational and financial update: top-line growth (6.2% overall, 8.7% on a comparable basis), strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+37.5%) and meaningful EPS improvement drove management to raise full-year guidance while maintaining a strong balance sheet and launching a $50M buyback. Headwinds are largely event-driven and short-term (deployments reducing some active-duty registrations, incremental Q2 marketing spend, and pending Department of Education approval), and management communicated mitigation plans and confidence in recovery. Given the number and materiality of positive financial and strategic developments that outweigh the identifiable near-term challenges, the overall tone is constructive and optimistic.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 6.2% year-over-year to $174.7M in Q1 2026; on a comparable basis excluding the graduate school USA divestiture from 2025, revenue growth was 8.7%.
Negative Updates
Active-Duty Deployment Headwinds
Registrations from Navy, Air Force and Marine cohorts slowed in Q2 due to deployments tied to the Middle East conflict; management characterized this as event-driven timing headwinds that will depress short-term registrations and require marketing mitigation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 6.2% year-over-year to $174.7M in Q1 2026; on a comparable basis excluding the graduate school USA divestiture from 2025, revenue growth was 8.7%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
APEI provided Q2 guidance of revenue $170.0–172.0M, net income available to common $6.5–7.5M, adjusted EBITDA $16.5–18.0M and diluted EPS $0.34–0.39, and raised full‑year 2026 guidance to revenue $686–696M (prior $685–695M), adjusted EBITDA $93–102M (prior $91.5–100.5M), net income available to common $44.9–51.6M (prior $41.3–47.6M) and diluted EPS $2.33–2.68 (prior $2.15–2.47) with CapEx unchanged at $28–32M; the moves follow a strong Q1 (revenue $174.7M, adjusted EBITDA $29.2M, adjusted EBITDA margin 16.7%, net income $17.7M or $0.94 diluted) and management noted a $2.2M incremental Q2 advertising spend to mitigate active‑duty deployment headwinds.American Public Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 659.05M | 648.86M | 624.56M | 600.54M | 606.33M | 418.80M |
| Gross Profit | 354.07M | 335.69M | 328.86M | 307.68M | 317.86M | 246.18M |
| EBITDA | 73.92M | 70.01M | 52.37M | -20.49M | -101.39M | 48.20M |
| Net Income | 40.40M | 31.56M | 16.11M | -47.29M | -114.99M | 17.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 537.91M | 543.43M | 570.10M | 557.39M | 685.25M | 725.61M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.00M | 176.50M | 131.93M | 116.66M | 129.46M | 122.63M |
| Total Debt | 70.25M | 162.96M | 200.62M | 204.73M | 208.97M | 257.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 231.75M | 248.65M | 266.22M | 265.41M | 335.52M | 310.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 306.17M | 294.78M | 303.88M | 291.98M | 349.73M | 415.61M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.78M | 46.10M | 27.79M | 31.62M | 12.83M | 4.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 88.27M | 61.97M | 48.87M | 45.51M | 29.21M | 16.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.68M | 4.80M | -21.08M | -13.77M | -13.67M | -336.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -60.45M | -49.21M | -13.19M | -16.86M | -35.71M | 242.34M |
American Public Education Technical Analysis
Positive
60.60
Price Trends
56.07
Negative
50.32
Positive
42.69
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.44
Positive
41.20
Neutral
12.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.65, above the 50-day MA of 56.07, and above the 200-day MA of 42.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEI.
American Public Education Risk Analysis
American Public Education disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Public Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $907.45M | 23.22 | 14.02% | ― | 3.84% | 87.34% | |
66 Neutral | $1.47B | 68.61 | 11.72% | ― | 19.92% | 84.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $404.06M | -14.59 | -20.84% | ― | 35.18% | 66.84% | |
55 Neutral | $146.67M | -1.75 | -62.94% | ― | -43.54% | 90.44% | |
55 Neutral | $1.43B | 141.92 | -3.46% | ― | 9.41% | -51.90% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
APEI
American Public Education
51.31
22.07
75.48%
LINC
Lincoln Edu
49.39
26.31
113.99%
CHGG
Chegg
1.34
0.14
11.67%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
1.93
-1.85
-48.94%
DAO
Youdao
12.23
3.32
37.26%
American Public Education Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Public Education Shareholders Back Directors and Governance
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its May 22, 2026 annual meeting, American Public Education, Inc. reported that holders of 16,460,441 of 18,411,154 eligible shares were represented, constituting a quorum, and stockholders elected six directors to serve terms expiring at the 20...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.