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American Public Education (APEI)
NASDAQ:APEI
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American Public Education (APEI) AI Stock Analysis

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APEI

American Public Education

(NASDAQ:APEI)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(9.13% Upside)
American Public Education's overall stock score reflects a strong earnings call performance and solid financial recovery. However, technical indicators suggest neutral momentum, and the stock's valuation appears stretched. The company's ability to navigate external challenges and maintain growth will be crucial for future performance.
Positive Factors
Enrollment Growth
Strong enrollment growth across key institutions indicates robust demand for APEI's educational offerings, supporting future revenue stability.
Financial Position
A strong cash position enhances APEI's financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and debt servicing, which supports long-term growth.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Significant revenue and EBITDA growth reflect operational efficiency and market demand, strengthening APEI's competitive position.
Negative Factors
Impact of Government Shutdown
Dependence on military enrollments exposes APEI to external risks like government shutdowns, which can disrupt revenue streams and growth.
Institutional Combination Delay
Delays in institutional restructuring can hinder operational synergies and efficiency improvements, impacting long-term strategic goals.
Graduate School USA Sale Loss
The financial loss from the sale of Graduate School USA indicates potential missteps in asset management, affecting overall financial health.

American Public Education (APEI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

American Public Education Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmerican Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing. It offers 130 degree programs and 111 certificate programs in various fields of study, including business administration, health science, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts, as well as national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security. The company also provides nursing-and health sciences-focused postsecondary education, diploma in practical nursing, an associate degree in nursing, and an associate degree in medical laboratory technology. American Public Education, Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAPEI generates revenue primarily through tuition and fees paid by students enrolled in its degree programs and courses. The company benefits from a significant number of military and veteran students, who often utilize federal financial aid programs such as the GI Bill. Additionally, APEI has established partnerships with various military organizations and employers, which can enhance enrollment and retention rates. The company's revenue model is also supported by an emphasis on online education, allowing for lower operational costs compared to traditional brick-and-mortar institutions, thus contributing to its profitability.

American Public Education Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong financial and enrollment performance in most areas. However, challenges such as the government shutdown affecting military enrollments and a procedural delay in institutional combination plans were noted. Despite these challenges, the company demonstrated resilience and financial flexibility.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Guidance Across Key Metrics
American Public Education, Inc. exceeded guidance ranges for revenue, net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA for 3Q 2025, driven by registration and enrollment momentum and expanding margins.
Significant Enrollment Growth
APUS registrations increased by 8%, Rasmussen enrollments by 10%, and Hondros College of Nursing enrollments by 18% compared to 3Q 2024.
Improved Financial Position
Unrestricted cash and equivalents totaled $193.1 million as of 09/30/2025. The redemption of preferred equity and sale of Graduate School USA improved cash flow by approximately $10 million per year.
Strong Performance of Nursing and Healthcare Institutions
Rasmussen enrollment increased 10% in 3Q 2025 and 9% in 4Q 2025, while Hondros College of Nursing enrollment increased 18% in 3Q 2025 and 9% in 4Q 2025.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenue increased by 7% to $163.2 million in 3Q 2025. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 60% to $20.7 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13%.
Negative Updates
Impact of Government Shutdown
The government shutdown muted military enrollments at APUS in October and November, affecting revenue and causing a decrease in course registrations.
Process Change for Institutional Combination
A new process was required for the planned combination of institutions, leading to a delay in the timeline for implementation to the third quarter of 2026.
Graduate School USA Sale Loss
The sale of Graduate School USA resulted in a loss of $3.9 million, though this was lower than initially forecasted.
Company Guidance
During the American Public Education, Inc. third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company announced that it exceeded its guidance ranges for all key financial metrics, including revenue, net income, EPS, and adjusted EBITDA. The third-quarter revenue was reported at $163.2 million, marking a 7% increase from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 60% to $20.7 million. Significant growth was noted in enrollment across various institutions: APUS registrations increased by 8%, Rasmussen enrollments rose by 10%, and Hondros College of Nursing saw an 18% growth compared to the third quarter of 2024. The company completed the sale of Graduate School USA, which had a positive impact on focusing its resources on core degree-granting businesses. The balance sheet was strengthened with unrestricted cash and equivalents totaling $193.1 million as of September 30, 2025, contributing to an improved capital structure. Despite challenges posed by the government shutdown affecting military enrollments, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth potential and continues to implement cost-saving measures to mitigate adverse impacts.

American Public Education Financial Statement Overview

Summary
American Public Education demonstrates a solid financial recovery with improved profitability and cash flow metrics. While leverage is moderate, the company shows efficient cash generation and operational improvements. Continued focus on revenue growth and maintaining financial stability will be key to sustaining this positive trajectory.
Income Statement
75
Positive
American Public Education shows a strong recovery in profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 4.44% compared to a negative margin in previous years. Revenue growth is modest at 1.57% TTM, indicating stability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at over 51%, and EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved significantly, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.72 TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved to 9.73% TTM, indicating better utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio has decreased slightly, which may indicate increased financial risk.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow growth is robust at 19.42% TTM, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.81, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests good cash conversion, supporting future investments and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue654.64M624.56M600.54M606.33M418.80M321.79M
Gross Profit354.92M328.86M307.68M317.86M246.18M199.62M
EBITDA66.43M52.37M-20.49M-101.39M48.20M38.59M
Net Income31.91M16.11M-47.29M-114.99M17.75M18.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets525.30M570.10M557.39M685.25M725.61M371.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments193.14M131.93M116.66M129.46M122.63M226.49M
Total Debt71.88M200.62M204.73M208.97M257.42M8.85M
Total Liabilities245.96M266.22M265.41M335.52M310.00M64.09M
Stockholders Equity279.34M303.88M291.98M349.73M415.61M306.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow59.97M27.79M31.62M12.83M4.44M39.88M
Operating Cash Flow75.11M48.87M45.51M29.21M16.27M44.81M
Investing Cash Flow7.10M-21.08M-13.77M-13.67M-336.67M-4.16M
Financing Cash Flow-51.32M-13.19M-16.86M-35.71M242.34M-15.71M

American Public Education Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.82
Price Trends
50DMA
35.73
Negative
100DMA
33.31
Positive
200DMA
29.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Negative
RSI
51.72
Neutral
STOCH
26.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.61, below the 50-day MA of 35.73, and above the 200-day MA of 29.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APEI.

American Public Education Risk Analysis

American Public Education disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Public Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

American Public Education Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$569.11M29.8611.20%6.75%141.11%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
60
Neutral
$743.59M-1.78%2.53%95.79%
53
Neutral
$650.82M45.437.94%16.90%41.11%
49
Neutral
$574.83M-21.21%48.81%61.64%
46
Neutral
$1.20B147.44-3.31%134.49%
42
Neutral
$105.54M-46.37%-32.37%90.99%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
APEI
American Public Education
34.82
14.03
67.48%
LINC
Lincoln Edu
20.58
4.10
24.88%
CHGG
Chegg
0.97
-1.40
-59.07%
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu
2.36
-0.54
-18.62%
DAO
Youdao
10.07
3.82
61.12%
UDMY
Udemy Inc
5.08
-3.53
-41.00%

American Public Education Corporate Events

American Public Education, Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Nov 12, 2025

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) recently held its third-quarter 2025 earnings call, where the company presented a generally positive outlook despite some challenges. The call highlighted strong financial and enrollment performance across most areas, although issues such as the government shutdown affecting military enrollments and procedural delays in institutional combination plans were acknowledged. Nevertheless, APEI demonstrated resilience and financial flexibility, underscoring its robust position in the education sector.

American Public Education, Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Nov 11, 2025

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is a provider of online and campus-based postsecondary education, primarily serving military, veterans, and public service communities through its subsidiary institutions, including American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American Public Education Appoints New CFO Edward Codispoti
Positive
Oct 20, 2025

On October 20, 2025, American Public Education, Inc. announced the appointment of Edward H. Codispoti as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Richard Sunderland, Jr. Mr. Codispoti brings over 25 years of financial leadership experience, most recently serving as CFO of NV5 Global, Inc. His appointment is expected to enhance APEI’s financial strategy and support its growth initiatives, as the company continues to focus on empowering students and advancing its educational mission.

The most recent analyst rating on (APEI) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Public Education stock, see the APEI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2025