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Kohl's (KSS)
NYSE:KSS

Kohl's (KSS) AI Stock Analysis

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KS

Kohl's

(NYSE:KSS)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
Kohl's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial environment with declining sales and profitability. The technical analysis indicates bearish trends, while the valuation suggests potential undervaluation. The cautious earnings outlook and recent CEO termination highlight both risks and opportunities for strategic improvement.
Positive Factors
Earnings
KSS delivered a solid 4Q EPS beat, with upside across sales, GM, and SG&A, driven by comp improvement across almost all lines of business and optimized promotional events.
Preliminary Guidance
The company announced preliminary 1Q guidance of comps in the range of (4.3%) to (4.0) and diluted EPS of ($0.24) to ($0.20), which is above the comp forecast and guidance of (6%).
Stock Volatility
Short interest remains very high, which could potentially lead to a positive turn going into earnings.
Negative Factors
Customer Engagement
Web traffic to kohls.com has decelerated, suggesting a decrease in online consumer engagement.
Guidance and Expectations
Management's earnings per share guidance for F25 is significantly lower than consensus estimates.
Leadership Changes
KSS announced a CEO termination after finding undisclosed conflicts of interest with certain vendor contracts.

Kohl's (KSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kohl's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKohl's Corporation (KSS) is a leading American department store chain that operates retail stores across the United States. Founded in 1962 and headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, the company offers a wide range of products, including apparel, footwear, accessories, home products, and beauty items. Kohl's targets middle-income families by providing quality merchandise at competitive prices, focusing on both national brands and private label products. The company is committed to delivering a convenient shopping experience through its brick-and-mortar locations as well as its e-commerce platform.
How the Company Makes MoneyKohl's generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its physical stores and online platform. The company's revenue model is based on retail sales from a diverse product mix, including clothing, shoes, accessories, home goods, and beauty products. Kohl's leverages a combination of national and private label brands to attract a broad customer base. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, online sales via its e-commerce platform, and credit card revenue from its private-label credit card program. Additionally, Kohl's has established partnerships with prominent brands and designers, enhancing its product offerings and driving customer traffic. The company also focuses on promotions, loyalty programs, and strategic marketing to boost sales and maintain customer loyalty. Seasonal sales, holiday promotions, and clearance events play a significant role in driving short-term revenue spikes.

Kohl's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Store Count
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, reflecting the company's physical market presence and expansion strategy.
Chart InsightsKohl's store count has seen a gradual increase over the years, but recent earnings call highlights a strategic shift with the closure of 27 underperforming stores. Despite this, the company is focusing on expanding its Sephora partnership and enhancing omnichannel capabilities. The closures align with efforts to optimize operations amid declining sales and digital challenges. Investors should note the cautious 2025 outlook, with expected sales declines and a focus on cost reduction, as Kohl’s navigates its turnaround strategy.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Kohl's Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -33.36%|
Next Earnings Date:May 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
While there are some positive aspects such as the strong performance of Sephora and improved gross margins, the overall sentiment is dominated by significant challenges, including declines in net sales, store closures, and underperformance in digital sales. The guidance for 2025 further reflects a cautious outlook with expected decreases in sales, indicating ongoing challenges in turning around performance.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Sephora as a Strong Sales Driver
Sephora continued to be a strong sales driver with beauty sales increasing 13% in Q4, showing an acceleration from the third quarter. This segment has successfully attracted new customers and maintained strong performance.
Improved Gross Margin
Gross margin in Q4 increased by 49 basis points to 32.9%, attributed to optimizing promotional events and a lower digital penetration. For the full fiscal year 2024, gross margin increased by 50 basis points to 37.2%.
Commitment to Operational Excellence
Kohl's is committed to reducing costs and investing in future growth, with actions taken in Q4 resulting in lower spending in stores, marketing, and supply chain, showing a decrease in SG&A expenses by 4.5%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales
Net sales declined 9.4% in Q4 and 7.2% for the year. Comparable sales also decreased by 6.7% in Q4 and 6.5% for the year, with notable underperformance in the digital business.
Store Closures and Inventory Challenges
The company announced the closure of 27 underperforming stores and one e-commerce fulfillment center, resulting in a one-time charge of $76 million. Inventory was up 2% compared to last year, driven by investments to rebuild proprietary brand inventory.
Challenges in Digital Sales
Digital sales underperformed with a comparable sales decline of 13.4% in Q4 and 8.7% for the year. The digital business faced headwinds from an inventory suppression issue, although improvements were seen after correction.
Sales Guidance for 2025
Guidance for 2025 anticipates net sales to decrease by 5% to 7% and comparable sales to decrease by 4% to 6%. This reflects the time needed for strategic changes and uncertainty in the macro environment.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter earnings call, Kohl's Corporation outlined its guidance for 2025, emphasizing a strategic turnaround that will take time to implement. The company expects net sales to decline by 5% to 7% and comparable sales to decrease by 4% to 6%. Operating margins are projected to be between 2.2% and 2.6%, with earnings per share ranging from $0.10 to $0.60. Key focus areas include enhancing the product assortment, re-establishing value and quality, and improving the omnichannel experience. The company plans to optimize its promotional strategy, aiming for a gross margin expansion of 30 to 50 basis points. SG&A expenses are expected to decrease by 3.5% to 5%, with further cost rationalization efforts underway. Capital expenditures are projected to be between $400 million and $405 million, with a focus on completing the Sephora rollout and expanding omnichannel capabilities. Kohl's also announced a reduction in its quarterly dividend to $0.125 per share to prioritize cash balance rebuilding and debt reduction.

Kohl's Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kohl's faces challenges with declining revenues, low margins, and high leverage. Despite stable cash flows and some profitability, strategic improvements are needed for revenue growth and cost management.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Kohl's income statement reveals challenges with declining revenues over the years, with a notable drop from $19.97 billion in 2020 to $16.22 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin is low at approximately 0.23% in 2025, indicating pressure on sales and cost management. Although there was a positive net income in 2025, the net profit margin remains modest at 0.67%. The EBIT margin is 2.67%, and the EBITDA margin is 7.25%, showing some profitability but lower than industry norms. Revenue growth was negative year-over-year, highlighting the need for strategic improvements to reverse this trend.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a mixed picture with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76, suggesting significant leverage. However, the equity ratio of 28.05% in 2025 indicates a reasonable level of equity financing. Return on equity improved slightly to 2.87% in 2025, but this is still low, reflecting moderate profitability on shareholder investments. Liquidity seems manageable, but the high debt levels pose a risk if cash flows do not improve.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement reflects a stable operating cash flow with $648 million in 2025, but free cash flow growth is inconsistent due to fluctuations in capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 5.95, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 5.95, also highlighting strong cash flow generation. However, the negative free cash flow growth in prior years underscores the need for careful capital spending management.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
16.22B17.48B18.10B19.43B15.96B
Gross Profit
37.20M6.23B6.64B8.00B5.59B
EBIT
433.00M717.00M246.00M1.68B-300.00M
EBITDA
1.18B1.47B1.05B2.32B612.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
109.00M317.00M-19.00M938.00M-163.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
134.00M183.00M153.00M1.59B2.27B
Total Assets
13.56B14.01B14.35B15.05B15.34B
Total Debt
2.89B7.38B7.57B6.79B6.74B
Net Debt
2.76B7.19B7.41B5.20B4.47B
Total Liabilities
9.76B10.12B10.58B10.39B10.14B
Stockholders Equity
3.80B3.89B3.76B4.66B5.20B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
648.00M591.00M-544.00M1.67B1.00B
Operating Cash Flow
648.00M1.17B282.00M2.27B1.34B
Investing Cash Flow
-467.00M-562.00M-783.00M-570.00M-137.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-230.00M-576.00M-933.00M-2.38B347.00M

Kohl's Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price7.91
Price Trends
50DMA
7.55
Positive
100DMA
9.84
Negative
200DMA
13.55
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.15
Negative
RSI
52.43
Neutral
STOCH
27.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.54, above the 50-day MA of 7.55, and below the 200-day MA of 13.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KSS.

Kohl's Risk Analysis

Kohl's disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kohl's reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kohl's Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DDDDS
78
Outperform
$6.57B11.5730.93%0.24%-3.94%-17.83%
MM
70
Neutral
$3.35B5.8313.40%6.08%-3.60%442.87%
62
Neutral
$6.84B11.233.09%3.95%2.66%-25.23%
WGWGO
61
Neutral
$962.39M-0.45%3.96%-12.29%-105.55%
KSKSS
58
Neutral
$832.70M7.692.83%21.72%-7.18%-65.92%
FLFL
56
Neutral
$2.28B194.630.62%-2.20%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KSS
Kohl's
7.91
-16.85
-68.05%
DDS
Dillard's
418.40
-1.54
-0.37%
FL
Foot Locker
23.90
1.38
6.13%
M
Macy's
12.04
-6.84
-36.23%
WGO
Winnebago Industries
34.34
-22.56
-39.65%

Kohl's Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Kohl’s Announces $360M Senior Secured Notes Offering
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Kohl’s Corporation announced the pricing of a $360 million private offering of 10.000% senior secured notes due 2030, guaranteed by its subsidiaries and secured by 11 distribution centers and e-commerce facilities. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, with plans to repay its 4.25% notes due 2025 at maturity, potentially impacting its financial structure and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSS) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kohl’s stock, see the KSS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividends
Kohl’s Shareholders Meeting and Dividend Announcement
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Kohl’s Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected eight directors for a one-year term, approved the executive compensation for fiscal 2024, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026. However, a proposal for a shareholder vote on executive severance payments was not approved. Additionally, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share, payable on June 25, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 11, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSS) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kohl’s stock, see the KSS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Kohl’s Announces $360 Million Senior Secured Notes Offering
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Kohl’s Corporation amended its Revolving Credit Facility with Wells Fargo Bank to facilitate the issuance of senior secured notes. On May 13, 2025, Kohl’s announced a private offering of approximately $360 million in senior secured notes due 2030, secured by 11 distribution centers and e-commerce facilities. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility, including the 4.25% notes due in 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSS) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kohl’s stock, see the KSS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kohl’s Appoints New Board Chair Amid Leadership Changes
Neutral
May 8, 2025

Christine Day has decided to resign from Kohl’s Corporation’s Board of Directors effective May 5, 2025, without any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies. Consequently, her nomination for reelection at the upcoming annual shareholders’ meeting has been withdrawn, and the Board has reduced its size from 11 to 10 members. Following Michael J. Bender’s appointment as Interim CEO, John E. Schlifske has been appointed as the independent Chair of the Board as of May 7, 2025. Additionally, a CEO search committee has been established to find a new CEO.

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Kohl’s CEO Terminated Amid Conflict Investigation
Negative
May 1, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Kohl’s Board of Directors terminated CEO J. Ashley Buchanan for cause, following an investigation that revealed undisclosed conflicts of interest in vendor transactions. Michael J. Bender has been appointed as Interim CEO, and the Board will search for a permanent replacement. Buchanan’s termination is unrelated to the company’s performance or financial reporting. Kohl’s also provided preliminary expectations for its first quarter 2025 financial results, anticipating a decline in comparable sales and operating income.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kohl’s Declares Quarterly Dividend Amid Sales Decline
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

On March 11, 2025, Kohl’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share, payable on April 2, 2025, to shareholders of record as of March 21, 2025. Kohl’s reported a decrease in net sales and comparable sales for both the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, with net sales down 9.4% and 7.2%, respectively. Despite these declines, the company increased its gross margin and reduced SG&A expenses. Kohl’s CEO, Ashley Buchanan, emphasized the company’s strategic focus on leveraging its strengths and addressing key opportunities to better serve customers in 2025.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.