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Kemper Corp (KMPR)
NYSE:KMPR

Kemper (KMPR) AI Stock Analysis

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KM

Kemper

(NYSE:KMPR)

58Neutral
Kemper's overall score reflects mixed financial health with challenges in profitability and leverage, offset by positive earnings guidance and undervaluation. Technical indicators signal a bearish trend, but earnings call highlights suggest potential for improvement and stability in the long term.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Kemper reported first-quarter operating EPS of $1.65, as a better-than-expected core loss ratio drove earnings outperformance.
Growth
Policy growth reached 14% year-over-year in the first quarter, indicating a shift to pursuing growth due to more favorable results.
Stock Potential
Shares of KMPR are viewed as attractive in terms of risk and reward, with the potential for the stock to trade higher as confidence in growth and margins increases.
Negative Factors
Competition
Greater competition in the longer term will act as a governor on growth.
Margins
Margins have likely improved beyond sustainable levels given that restrictive non-rate actions are beginning to unwind.
Profitability
A gradual increase in the combined ratio is expected over the next several quarters, with a low- to mid-90s level expected by the end of 2025.

Kemper (KMPR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Kemper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKemper Corporation (KMPR) is a diversified insurance holding company based in the United States. It provides a wide range of insurance products and services through its subsidiaries, including automobile, homeowners, life, health, and other forms of insurance. Kemper operates through two primary segments: Property & Casualty Insurance and Life & Health Insurance. The company caters to individuals, families, and businesses, offering both standard and specialty insurance solutions tailored to meet the needs of its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyKemper Corporation generates revenue primarily through the collection of premiums from policyholders in exchange for the insurance coverage it provides. In the Property & Casualty Insurance segment, it earns money by underwriting personal and commercial auto insurance, homeowners insurance, and other specialty insurance products. These products are mainly sold through a network of independent agents and brokers. In the Life & Health Insurance segment, Kemper makes money by offering life insurance, health insurance, and annuity products. The company also invests a portion of the premiums it collects in various financial instruments, generating investment income that contributes to its overall earnings. Key factors that influence Kemper's revenue include underwriting performance, claims expenses, investment returns, and policy renewal rates.

Kemper Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kemper faces financial challenges with declining revenues, high leverage, and inconsistent cash flows. However, improvements in cash generation and management are notable. The company needs to focus on profitability and leverage to enhance stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Kemper's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin is consistent, but net income has turned negative, indicating issues with cost management or operations. Revenue decreased by approximately 5.6% from 2022 to 2023, with a slight improvement in 2024. The lack of EBIT and EBITDA data for the recent periods limits a comprehensive profitability analysis.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with an increasing debt-to-equity ratio over the years. As of 2023, the debt-to-equity ratio is around 0.55, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is unavailable due to missing total assets data for 2024, but a declining trend in stockholders' equity raises concerns about financial stability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Kemper's cash flow statement reveals fluctuating free cash flow with recent positive growth in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows improvement, indicating better cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is volatile, reflecting inconsistent cash management.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.63B4.91B5.58B5.79B5.20B
Gross Profit
4.63B4.91B5.58B5.79B5.20B
EBIT
388.50M0.0044.70M-250.10M415.50M
EBITDA
445.40M-232.40M-245.40M-105.70M601.10M
Net Income Common Stockholders
317.80M-272.10M-301.20M-120.50M409.90M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.13B587.00M7.39B8.42B8.69B
Total Assets
12.63B12.74B13.36B14.92B14.34B
Total Debt
1.39B1.39B1.39B1.12B1.17B
Net Debt
1.33B1.33B1.17B973.70M966.70M
Total Liabilities
9.85B10.24B10.92B1.35B1.46B
Stockholders Equity
2.79B2.51B2.44B4.01B4.56B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
329.70M-188.00M-241.10M292.90M371.70M
Operating Cash Flow
382.90M-134.20M-210.30M350.70M425.10M
Investing Cash Flow
-244.40M107.90M-108.40M-118.20M-757.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-137.20M-122.00M382.90M-290.40M401.20M

Kemper Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price65.52
Price Trends
50DMA
62.85
Positive
100DMA
64.27
Positive
200DMA
63.82
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.49
Negative
RSI
65.90
Neutral
STOCH
94.14
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMPR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.64, above the 50-day MA of 62.85, and above the 200-day MA of 63.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KMPR.

Kemper Risk Analysis

Kemper disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kemper reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kemper Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$4.15B31.0120.76%46.90%43.99%
75
Outperform
$3.34B46.1012.50%17.56%29.28%
74
Outperform
$5.48B24.617.48%1.63%13.37%-35.09%
MCMCY
71
Outperform
$3.35B11.7116.71%2.11%18.27%385.75%
64
Neutral
$12.73B9.827.91%17015.08%12.18%-5.69%
58
Neutral
$4.11B12.0212.57%1.94%-6.08%
56
Neutral
$2.28B-35.57%21.44%2.99%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KMPR
Kemper
65.52
5.53
9.22%
MCY
Mercury General
60.51
4.70
8.42%
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
90.23
-5.33
-5.58%
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
155.30
72.18
86.84%
LMND
Lemonade
31.97
13.34
71.60%
HGTY
Hagerty Inc Class A
9.41
0.38
4.21%

Kemper Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 6.35%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Kemper reported strong financial and operational performance, particularly in its Specialty Auto segment, and improved its capital position significantly. The company is confident in its ability to manage the potential impacts of tariffs. However, challenges in the Florida market and lower-than-expected investment income posed some concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Kemper reported net income of $100 million, a return on equity of 14%, and a return on adjusted equity of 21% for Q1 2025. Book value per share and adjusted book value per share grew by approximately 13% and 16% year-over-year, respectively.
Specialty Auto Growth
The Specialty Auto segment generated a 92% underlying combined ratio and strong policy-in-force (PIF) growth of nearly 14% year-over-year. Written premiums grew by 24%.
Improved Capital Position
Kemper returned its debt-to-capital ratio to the low 20s and improved it to 22.9%, an 8.1-point improvement since last quarter. The company also repurchased $4 million of common stock and has $130 million left in its share repurchase authorization.
Tariff Resilience
Kemper demonstrated confidence in its ability to navigate potential tariff impacts due to its strong starting position and quick response capabilities. The company emphasized that only about one-third of its loss costs are directly exposed to potential tariff-related cost increases.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Florida Market
The Florida market is becoming increasingly competitive, driven by favorable impacts of tort reform. Some competitors have taken aggressive pricing actions, modestly pressuring near-term production in the state.
Lower Investment Income
Net investment income for the quarter was $101 million, below the quarterly guidance of $105 million due to lower returns from alternative investments.
Company Guidance
During the Kemper First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported strong financial results with net income of $100 million, a return on equity of 14%, and a return on adjusted equity of 21%. Book value per share and adjusted book value per share increased by approximately 13% and 16% year-over-year, respectively. Kemper's Specialty Auto business showed impressive performance with a 92% underlying combined ratio and a nearly 14% year-over-year growth in policies in force. Written premiums saw a significant 24% increase, indicating future growth in earned premiums. The company maintained a debt-to-capital ratio in the low 20s and achieved an operating cash flow of approximately $520 million over the trailing 12 months. Additionally, the company expressed confidence in its resilience to tariffs, with only about one-third of loss costs exposed to potential tariff-related increases. Looking ahead, Kemper remains optimistic about its capacity to sustain profitable growth within its long-term margin and growth ranges.

Kemper Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Kemper Schedules Q4 2024 Earnings Release and Minimizes Wildfire Losses
Neutral
Jan 22, 2025

On January 22, 2025, Kemper Corporation announced its schedule for the fourth quarter 2024 earnings release, set to be issued after markets close on February 5, 2025. The company also provided an initial estimate of less than $1 million in preliminary losses from the California wildfires for the first quarter of 2025, indicating limited exposure to this catastrophe.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.