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Kuehne + Nagel (KHNGY)
OTHER OTC:KHNGY
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Kuehne + Nagel
(OTC:KHNGY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(9.94% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/18/25
Kuehne + Nagel's overall stock score reflects a solid financial performance and attractive dividend yield, offset by technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's strategic initiatives, such as market share expansion and cost reduction programs, are positive, but yield pressures and currency headwinds present ongoing risks.
Positive Factors
Market Share Expansion
Expanding market share in key logistics segments strengthens Kuehne + Nagel's competitive position, enhancing long-term revenue potential and operational scale.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Improved free cash flow conversion indicates strong cash generation, providing financial flexibility for investments and shareholder returns.
Contract Logistics Growth
Growth in contract logistics EBIT demonstrates the segment's resilience and potential for stable, recurring revenue, supporting overall profitability.
Negative Factors
Decline in Group EBIT and EPS
Declining EBIT and EPS indicate profitability challenges, potentially impacting investor confidence and limiting reinvestment capacity.
Yield Pressure in Sea and Air Logistics
Yield pressure in logistics segments can compress margins, affecting profitability and requiring strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness.
Impact of Overcapacity
Overcapacity leads to pricing pressure and reduced margins, challenging the company's ability to sustain profitability in competitive markets.
Kuehne + Nagel (KHNGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.92B
Dividend Yield5.3%
Average Volume (3M)2.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.5
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth10.63%
EPS Growth-7.68%
CountryUS
Employees77,130
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding603,768,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,733
30 Day Avg. Volume2,959
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.21
Price to Book (P/B)7.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio20.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.06
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Kuehne + Nagel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKuehne + Nagel (KHNGY) is a global leader in logistics and supply chain management, providing services across various sectors including sea freight, air freight, contract logistics, and overland transportation. Established in 1890, the company has built a strong reputation for its comprehensive and innovative logistics solutions, catering to a diverse range of industries such as automotive, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology. Kuehne + Nagel operates a vast network that spans more than 100 countries, supporting its clients with end-to-end logistics services and digital solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyKuehne + Nagel generates revenue through multiple key streams primarily focused on logistics services. The major revenue sources include sea freight, air freight, and contract logistics. In sea freight, the company earns money by managing container shipping logistics, leveraging its large scale to negotiate favorable shipping rates and providing value-added services such as customs clearance. In air freight, the company offers expedited shipping solutions for time-sensitive goods, generating revenue through service fees and handling charges. Contract logistics involves managing warehousing and distribution for clients, where Kuehne + Nagel earns income from long-term contracts that provide stability and recurring revenue. Additionally, the company has established significant partnerships with major shipping lines and airlines, which enhance its operational efficiency and service offerings. Factors contributing to its earnings also include the integration of digital technologies that optimize supply chain management and improve customer experience, thus attracting more clients.
Kuehne + Nagel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced picture: several strong operational and financial positives (notably robust Q4 free cash flow and cash conversion, market share gains in Air, record Contract Logistics performance, completed cloud migration and promising AI pilots, and implementation of a CHF 200m cost program) were offset by material full-year profit declines (underlying EBIT down 14%, EPS down 25%), earlier-year yield pressure in Sea Logistics, one-off provisions (CHF 122m) with cash outflows mainly in 2026, a rising working capital intensity and currency headwinds. Management provided constructive 2026 recurring EBIT guidance (CHF 1.2–1.4bn) but kept AI benefits conservatively out of near-term guidance. Overall, the results show operational resilience and a path to improvement but with meaningful near-term challenges and uncertainties.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Market Share Expansion in Air and Sea
Continued expansion of market share in Air Logistics and improved SME share in Sea Logistics; Air volume growth of 7% in Q4 (well ahead of estimated market growth of 4-5%) and ongoing market share gains in hyperscalers, health care and aerospace.
Strong Air Yield Recovery
Average air yields increased by 8% quarter-over-quarter into the Q4 peak season; unit costs ticked down 1% Q/Q while volume grew ~6-7% Q/Q, supporting Q4 Air EBIT of CHF 107m (CHF 132m excluding nonrecurring items) and a recurring Air Logistics conversion rate of 29%.
Record Contract Logistics Performance
Contract Logistics delivered a record quarterly EBIT of CHF 78m in Q4 (excluding nonrecurring items), representing 20% year-over-year EBIT growth (23% excl. currency) and a Q4 recurring conversion rate of 8%; rolling L12M ROCE stable at 25%.
Road Logistics Signs of Demand Recovery
Road Logistics achieved net turnover growth of 6% in Q4 (excluding currency effects), stronger than full-year growth, with Q4 EBIT (ex nonrecurring items) of CHF 19m, nearly double last year's result and a recurring conversion rate of 6% (double last year).
Free Cash Flow and Cash Conversion Strength
Very strong cash generation in Q4: free cash flow of CHF 396m and free cash flow conversion of 147% (vs 93% prior year); full year free cash conversion at 86%.
Cost Reduction Program Implemented
Announced measures to reduce operating costs by at least CHF 200m; company confirms implementation of all necessary measures prior to year-end 2025 and expects full run-rate savings by year-end 2026 with net impact estimated at ~CHF 100m in 2026.
Technology and AI Platform Ready
Completed migration of in-house transport management system to the cloud and established an AI stack; early AI use cases show tangible benefits (pricing quotes twice as fast, booking time reduced from minutes to seconds, customs automation, and double-digit productivity gains in dynamic workforce planning pilots). Management expects material AI impact within ~18 months.
Dividend and Financial Discipline
Supervisory Board to propose dividend distribution of CHF 6 per share, reflecting healthy profitability and strong cash conversion; management comfortable with current net debt/EBITDA leverage at ~1.5x and intends to manage refinancing to reduce interest costs over time.
Combined Sea & Air Conversion and Resilience
Combined sea and air conversion rate at 28% excluding nonrecurring items (IMC consolidation reduced conversion by about 1 percentage point); management reports yield stabilization in Sea Logistics in Q4 and expects no similar degree of yield pressure going forward as seen in Q2/Q3 2025.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Profitability Decline
Underlying group EBIT declined by 14% year-over-year on a full-year basis, primarily driven by yield pressure in Sea Logistics during Q2 and Q3 2025.
Earnings Per Share Reduction
Group EPS declined by 25% year-over-year; decline narrows to 15% when excluding nonrecurring items and factoring in a reported ~3% currency headwind.
Sea Logistics Volume and Yield Pressure Earlier in Year
Sea Logistics full-year volume was flat YoY and Q4 volume declined 2% YoY versus a strong prior-year comp; Sea faced yield pressure in Q2 and Q3 which reduced profitability (Q4 recurring Sea conversion 23% or 25% organic).
One-Off Charges and Timing of Cash Outflows
Q4 recorded a net drag of CHF 122m at EBIT chiefly due to provisions related to the cost reduction program; management noted the vast majority of cash outflows related to these provisions will occur in 2026.
Working Capital Intensity and NWC Increase
Net working capital intensity increased to 5.2% at Q4 (5.1% in Q3, 4.4% at end of 2024) and net working capital rose ~8% year-over-year, driven in part by disproportionate growth in airfreight charter business; company updated NWC corridor to 4.5%-5.5%.
Currency Headwinds and Translation Risk
Management reported a ~3% currency headwind on EPS in 2025 and expects a further ~5% translation pressure from U.S. dollar depreciation in 2026 versus 2025, which could weigh on reported results.
Geopolitical and Capacity Uncertainty
Near-term uncertainty from Middle East developments (Red Sea / Suez disruption) and impacted air capacity (reports of grounded capacity up to ~18% in some commentaries) create demand/supply volatility; management has not fully incorporated potential Red Sea timeline shifts into 2026 guidance.
Conservative Near-Term AI Financial Impact
Although AI pilots are promising, management intentionally did not factor material AI productivity gains into 2026 guidance and expects most measurable productivity effects to materialize from 2027 onward, leaving short-term benefits limited.
Shift in Cost-Savings Composition
Composition of the CHF 200m+ gross savings has shifted toward a greater proportion of FTE reductions (structural rather than variable savings), which raises near-term workforce and execution implications.
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 recurring group EBIT guidance of CHF 1.2–1.4 billion, with an expected effective tax rate of ~25% and an additional ~5% negative currency‑translation headwind from USD depreciation versus 2025; the cost‑reduction program remains on track for at least CHF 200 million of gross annual savings (greater share now from FTE reductions), with an estimated net impact of ~CHF 100 million in 2026 and full run‑rate by year‑end 2026 (Q4 one‑offs of CHF 122 million, most cash outflows expected in 2026). They adjusted the net working‑capital intensity corridor to 4.5–5.5% (Q4 2025 NWC intensity 5.2% vs 5.1% in Q3 and 4.4% at end‑2024; NWC +8% y/y), confirmed strong free‑cash‑flow seasonality after generating CHF 396 million in Q4 (conversion 147% in Q4; 86% FY), proposed a CHF 6 per‑share dividend, said net‑debt/EBITDA is ~1.5x (comfortable), expect Q1 recurring EBIT to be roughly comparable to Q3 2025 (Q1 typically weaker vs H2) and are not yet factoring material AI productivity gains into 2026 (material traction expected from 2027).Kuehne + Nagel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Kuehne + Nagel exhibits a strong financial position with positive revenue growth and efficient cash flow management. However, the decline in profit margins and increased leverage pose potential risks. The company needs to focus on improving cost management and maintaining profitability while managing its debt levels.Income Statement
Kuehne + Nagel's income statement shows a solid performance with a TTM revenue growth rate of 4.14%, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from 36.84% in 2023 to 28.80% in TTM, suggesting pressure on cost management. The net profit margin also declined to 4.04% in TTM from 6.00% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a stable EBIT margin of 5.80% and EBITDA margin of 9.31% in TTM, showcasing operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a significant increase in leverage, with the debt-to-equity ratio rising to 1.56 in TTM from 0.72 in 2024, indicating higher financial risk. However, the return on equity remains strong at 40.24% in TTM, suggesting effective use of equity. The equity ratio decreased to 17.53% in TTM, highlighting a lower proportion of equity financing. Overall, while the company is leveraging more, it continues to generate strong returns for shareholders.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Kuehne + Nagel's cash flow statement shows robust free cash flow growth of 4.28% in TTM, recovering from a decline in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.68, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also solid at 0.86, reflecting efficient cash conversion. Overall, the company demonstrates strong cash flow management, supporting its financial stability.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.25B | 24.80B | 23.85B | 39.40B | 32.80B | 20.38B |
| Gross Profit | 7.28B | 8.67B | 8.79B | 5.96B | 5.38B | 3.40B |
| EBITDA | 2.35B | 2.50B | 2.76B | 4.60B | 3.70B | 1.81B |
| Net Income | 1.02B | 1.18B | 1.43B | 2.64B | 2.03B | 788.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.84B | 11.72B | 10.97B | 14.75B | 14.65B | 9.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 602.90M | 1.15B | 2.07B | 3.78B | 2.31B | 1.70B |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 2.35B | 1.82B | 1.70B | 1.89B | 1.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.73B | 8.46B | 7.81B | 10.60B | 11.44B | 7.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.08B | 3.26B | 3.15B | 4.14B | 3.20B | 2.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.18B | 1.39B | 4.16B | 2.26B | 1.53B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.69B | 1.48B | 1.70B | 4.40B | 2.46B | 1.72B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -723.00M | -452.00M | -243.00M | -223.00M | -1.08B | 158.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -1.91B | -3.12B | -2.64B | -800.00M | -1.04B |
Kuehne + Nagel Technical Analysis
Neutral
43.66
Price Trends
45.47
Negative
42.54
Positive
42.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
47.10
Neutral
70.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KHNGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 43.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.18, below the 50-day MA of 45.47, and above the 200-day MA of 42.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KHNGY.
Kuehne + Nagel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $87.78B | 17.37 | 15.87% | 1.94% | 3.09% | 14.94% | |
69 Neutral | $26.92B | 22.50 | 50.33% | 5.30% | 10.63% | -7.68% | |
66 Neutral | $19.59B | 24.87 | 35.40% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
66 Neutral | $88.37B | 11.75 | 33.83% | 6.55% | -1.25% | -2.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $24.16B | 50.75 | 18.26% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
61 Neutral | $21.92B | 32.93 | 32.91% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% |
* Industrials Sector Average
KHNGY
Kuehne + Nagel
45.26
-0.79
-1.72%
CHRW
CH Robinson
184.81
88.80
92.48%
EXPD
Expeditors International
146.72
27.43
23.00%
XPO
XPO
206.21
95.15
85.67%
FDX
FedEx
373.35
129.33
53.00%
UPS
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104.07
-8.72
-7.73%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.