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Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV (KCDMY)
OTHER OTC:KCDMY
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Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV
(OTC:KCDMY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(29.31% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical momentum and a positive 2026 outlook from the earnings call (cost savings, input tailwinds, and capital returns). These strengths are tempered by weaker recent financial momentum and elevated leverage risk, while valuation is supportive due to a reasonable P/E and attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high gross (~41%) and solid net margins indicate durable earnings power and pricing ability in core categories. These margins underpin consistent cash flow generation, fund investment and dividends, and provide a buffer against cost cycles, supporting long-term operational stability.
Strong cash generation & capital returns
A strong cash balance, meaningful deleveraging and repeated dividends/buybacks reflect reliable free cash flow conversion. This capital flexibility supports shareholder returns and allows funding of strategic moves while retaining a cushion for cyclical downturns, a durable strength for the next 2–6 months.
Structural cost savings program
Repeatable, sizable cost actions (nearly MXN 2.0B in 2025 and further MXN 1.0B+ planned) show disciplined operations and structural efficiency gains. Persistent cost levers improve margin resilience versus input volatility and create durable capacity to fund innovation, premiumization and strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage remains
Although debt declined in 2025, the company's debt base remains large relative to a small equity cushion, sustaining above-average financial risk. Elevated leverage can constrain strategic flexibility, increase sensitivity to rate/tax changes, and raise refinancing or covenant risk in adverse scenarios.
Top-line softness & private label pressure
A multi-point revenue decline and growing private label competition reflect structural demand weakness. Persistent top-line pressure limits operating leverage, constrains margin expansion efforts, and requires sustained pricing/mix or category diversification to restore multi-year growth trends.
Channel and input volatility risk
Significant Away‑from‑Home contraction, export mix shifts and 170bp annual margin compression show channels and input costs can materially affect performance. Ongoing raw material, FX and tariff uncertainties create a recurring margin and demand risk that could reappear over the medium term.
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV (KCDMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.01B
Dividend Yield4.7%
Average Volume (3M)6.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth-9.05%
EPS Growth-18.32%
CountryUS
Employees9,513
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding312,725,340
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume6,964
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.44
Price to Book (P/B)15.97
Price to Sales (P/S)2.23
P/FCF Ratio19.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap20.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.73
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.31B
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKimberly-Clark de México, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and commercializes disposable products for daily use by consumers in Mexico. The company offers diapers, pull-up training pants, swim diapers, wet wipes, shampoos, cream and bar soaps, and feeding products for babies; beauty products, including bar soaps, liquid hand soaps, foaming liquid soaps, liquid body washes, micellar water, and makeup removing wipes; and underwear, protectors, feminine pads, and prefolded products for adults. It also provides toilet paper, napkins, facial tissues, and paper towels for home; feminine pads, panty liners, tampons, and intimate wipes for women; and dispensers, jumbo roll toilet papers, paper towels, hand towels, anti-bacterial gel, disinfecting spray, facemasks, and industrial cleaning cloths for professional use. The company offers its products primarily under the Huggies, KleenBebe, Pull-Ups, Evenflo, Kleenex, Kotex, Depend, Cottonelle, Pétalo, Suavel, Vogue, Sanitas, Marli y Kimlark, Jabón Escudo Antibacterial, and Jabones Kleenex brands. The company also exports its products. Kimberly-Clark de México, S. A. B. de C. V. was founded in 1925 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyKimberly-Clark de Mexico generates revenue primarily through the sale of its consumer and professional products, which include baby care items, feminine care products, incontinence care products, and various tissue and paper products. The company's revenue model relies on a combination of retail sales through supermarkets, pharmacies, and convenience stores, as well as direct sales to businesses and institutions. Key revenue streams include both domestic sales within Mexico and exports to other markets. Additionally, KCDMY benefits from strong brand recognition and loyalty, which drives repeat purchases. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with retailers and distributors to enhance product availability and visibility, further contributing to its earnings.
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive quarter and constructive outlook: Q4 showed revenue growth, significant margin and EBITDA improvement, strong cost-savings execution, healthy cash generation and a strong balance sheet. Management acknowledged ongoing headwinds—soft consumer demand, competitive intensity, a 10% contraction in Away-from-Home and full-year margin pressure—while outlining clear mitigation plans (continued cost reductions, pricing/mix initiatives, innovation, private label participation and potential strategic opportunities from Kenvue integration). Given the weight of tangible operational and financial improvements and an optimistic but cautious outlook, the tone is constructive and forward-looking.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter Revenue Growth
Sales reached MXN 14.1 billion in Q4, up 2.1% year-over-year, with sequential sales growth of 4.8% versus Q3.
Consumer Products Outperformance
Consumer Products expanded 5.5% in Q4, driven by volume growth of 1.4% and price/mix improvement of 4.1%; sequential Consumer Products growth was 8.5%.
Margin and Profitability Improvement in Q4
Gross profit increased 5.4% and gross margin reached 40.4%; operating profit grew 9.2% with operating margin at 22.9%; Q4 EBITDA was MXN 3.7 billion (+6%) with an EBITDA margin of 26.4% (100 bps YoY expansion and 140 bps sequential improvement).
Cost Reduction Program Delivery
Cost reduction initiatives generated approximately MXN 500 million in savings in Q4 and MXN 1.95 billion for full-year 2025, driven by sourcing, materials optimization and process improvements.
Supportive FX and Favorable Raw Material Mix
Average peso appreciation of roughly 8% in Q4 provided tailwinds; several input costs (virgin fibers, recycled fibers, SAM, resins) were favorable quarter-over-quarter, partly offset by higher fluff costs.
Strong Cash Generation and Balance Sheet
Record full-year sales of MXN 55.4 billion (+1.1% FY), full-year EBITDA MXN 14.1 billion (25.5% of sales), cash balance MXN 9.7 billion, net debt/EBITDA 1.0x and EBITDA to net interest coverage ~10x; repaid MXN 3.7 billion of debt, paid MXN 6.2 billion in dividends and repurchased nearly 43 million shares (1.4%).
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Accelerating innovation and premiumization (e.g., Cottonelle, Huggies, new feminine and incontinence products), entry and ramp-up in pet food with early traction, and planned participation in private label with a dedicated team and assets.
CapEx and Capital Allocation Discipline
Invested MXN 1.8 billion in CapEx focused on technology upgrades, efficiencies and capacity additions; Board to propose a high-single-digit dividend increase and a significant share repurchase program.
Negative Updates
Soft Consumer Backdrop and Competitive Pressure
Consumer confidence remained subdued and private labels/value formats continued to gain share; management expects competitors to remain aggressive through 2026 amid moderated private consumption.
Full-Year Margin Compression
Full-year margins declined 170 basis points due to cost pressures earlier in 2025 despite Q4 improvement; underlying cost volatility remains a risk.
Away-From-Home (Professional) Weakness
Away-from-Home sales contracted ~10% due to channel inventory adjustments and softer demand; management expects recovery into 2Q 2026 but near-term weakness affected results.
Export Hard Rolled Sales Decline
Export hard roll sales continued to decline as production was converted to higher-value domestic tissue, pressuring that revenue stream.
Financing Costs and Tax Rate Variance
Financing cost increased to MXN 398 million from MXN 350 million year-over-year (driven by lower returns on cash balances); Q4 effective tax rate was unusually low due to accounting adjustments (noncash reversals), creating a one-off benefit to reported net income.
External Risks and Uncertainties
Management flagged ongoing tariff uncertainty, slower formal employment, softer remittances and raw material/FX volatility as risks that could negatively affect 2026 performance if conditions change.
Private Label Cannibalization Risk
While management is moving to participate in private label, this strategy carries potential cannibalization risk to branded volumes and pricing/mix over the medium term if not managed.
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call pointed to stronger momentum in 2026 versus 2025, driven by expected tailwinds from lower pulp, recycled fibers, resins and superabsorbent materials plus a supportive peso (Q4 average appreciation ~8%), with the company already identifying upwards of MXN 1.0 billion of cost savings for 2026 (on top of MXN 1.95 billion delivered in 2025 and ~MXN 500 million in Q4), plans to continue pricing and mix actions, and an ambition to keep cost reduction as a structural lever that could deliver savings close to 2025 levels; management expects Away‑from‑Home to recover by Q2, pet food to be a breakout category in 2026, will evaluate potential integration of Kenvue Mexico (roughly $200 million in sales), and will propose a high‑single‑digit dividend increase and a significant share repurchase program at the Feb. 26 shareholders’ meeting, while operating with a healthy balance sheet (cash MXN 9.7 billion, net debt/EBITDA ~1.0x, EBITDA/interest ~10x).Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement strength (high gross margin ~41% and solid net margin) and consistently positive free cash flow support a good operating profile, but recent revenue decline and weaker 2025 operating/FCF trends reduce momentum. Balance-sheet leverage remains a meaningful risk despite evident deleveraging.Income Statement
Profitability is a key strength: 2024 delivered strong margins (about 41% gross margin and ~14% net margin), and earnings power remains solid in 2025 (net income ~7.1B on ~51.9B revenue). However, growth has softened—2025 revenue declined (~-4.7% year over year) after modest growth in 2023–2024, and profits also dipped versus 2024. Overall, this looks like a consistently profitable business with some recent top-line pressure.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains elevated relative to equity, even with improvement recently. Debt-to-equity was high in 2022–2024 (roughly ~6.8x down to ~3.8x), and while 2025 shows meaningful debt reduction (total debt down to ~22.1B from ~28.1B in 2024), equity is still relatively small (~7.2B) versus the asset base. The trajectory is positive (deleveraging), but the balance sheet still carries above-average financial risk.46
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is generally solid, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow each year. That said, cash flow has become less supportive recently: 2025 operating cash flow (~7.8B) and free cash flow (~6.1B) fell from 2024 levels, and 2025 free cash flow growth is down (~-12.9%). Earlier years show stronger conversion (for example, 2023 free cash flow exceeded 11B). Overall: healthy cash flow profile, but weakening momentum in the most recent year.64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 51.94B | 54.78B | 53.31B | 51.06B | 46.89B |
| Gross Profit | 20.19B | 22.38B | 20.70B | 16.77B | 15.79B |
| EBITDA | 13.21B | 16.09B | 15.23B | 11.58B | 10.79B |
| Net Income | 7.11B | 7.83B | 7.01B | 4.94B | 4.49B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 45.71B | 52.11B | 53.92B | 53.54B | 48.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.68B | 15.58B | 16.86B | 16.92B | 12.27B |
| Total Debt | 22.11B | 28.10B | 29.72B | 34.15B | 29.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.46B | 44.70B | 47.00B | 48.51B | 43.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.25B | 7.41B | 6.92B | 5.03B | 5.72B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.09B | 8.10B | 11.08B | 6.18B | 4.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.80B | 10.60B | 12.76B | 8.32B | 6.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.72B | -1.30B | -311.39M | -2.15B | -2.14B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.02B | -13.50B | -9.83B | -1.32B | -11.07B |
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Positive
10.44
Price Trends
11.34
Positive
10.62
Positive
9.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Positive
66.46
Neutral
99.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KCDMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.06, below the 50-day MA of 11.34, and above the 200-day MA of 9.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KCDMY.
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $24.82B | 34.77 | 17.62% | 1.38% | 1.45% | 42.04% | |
71 Outperform | $7.01B | 19.08 | 117.43% | 4.70% | -9.05% | -18.32% | |
69 Neutral | $160.31B | 23.41 | 32.63% | 3.74% | -0.30% | -14.60% | |
65 Neutral | $79.47B | 37.72 | 1602.26% | 2.67% | -0.05% | 2.49% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $15.38B | 20.78 | ― | 5.05% | -9.35% | 123.06% | |
61 Neutral | $36.99B | 18.37 | 147.22% | 5.03% | -10.04% | -23.41% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KCDMY
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV
12.55
5.29
72.93%
CHD
Church & Dwight
104.86
-5.76
-5.21%
CLX
Clorox
127.16
-22.59
-15.08%
CL
Colgate-Palmolive
99.14
8.56
9.45%
KMB
Kimberly Clark
111.44
-26.27
-19.08%
UL
Unilever
73.75
13.93
23.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.