Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Inc (JP:8616)
:8616
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Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
(8616)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
¥746.00
▲(25.59% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (stronger profitability and renewed growth) but held back by balance-sheet leverage and cash-flow volatility. Technical indicators add near-term pressure with a bearish trend setup, while valuation is a key offset given the modest P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
Net margin and revenue recovery to 2026 levels point to a structural improvement in underlying brokerage and advisory economics. Sustained higher margins boost cash generation and reinvestment capacity, providing a durable buffer for dividends and strategic initiatives against cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material leverage limits balance-sheet flexibility and amplifies earnings sensitivity to rate moves or market stress. High debt burdens increase interest and refinancing risk, constrain capital allocation choices, and heighten the probability that downturns will force defensive actions like cutting payouts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
Net margin and revenue recovery to 2026 levels point to a structural improvement in underlying brokerage and advisory economics. Sustained higher margins boost cash generation and reinvestment capacity, providing a durable buffer for dividends and strategic initiatives against cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (8616) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥170.87B
Dividend Yield5.6%
Average Volume (3M)947.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth15.68%
EPS Growth49.07%
CountryJP
Employees2,655
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.61
Shares Outstanding260,582,120
10 Day Avg. Volume787,500
30 Day Avg. Volume947,940
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)1.78
P/FCF Ratio6.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)57.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥98.70B
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. (8616) is a Japan-based financial services holding company that operates through its subsidiaries in various sectors such as securities, asset management, and financial advisory services. The company offers a w...
How the Company Makes Money
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings makes money primarily through its securities businesses by earning fees and commissions for brokering customers’ trades in financial instruments (e.g., equities and other securities) and by collecting distribution an...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 83.54B | 100.96B | 87.27B | 89.10B | 73.52B | 81.54B |
| Gross Profit | 72.30B | 87.20B | 76.34B | 79.16B | 62.62B | 72.45B |
| EBITDA | 15.66B | 26.70B | 20.94B | 22.05B | 9.66B | 21.01B |
| Net Income | 8.12B | 16.57B | 11.05B | 10.19B | 1.95B | 13.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.22T | 1.53T | 1.41T | 1.40T | 1.06T | 1.58T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 404.50B | 490.04B | 531.91B | 417.00B | 392.46B | 618.89B |
| Total Debt | 650.49B | 394.60B | 388.26B | 643.97B | 521.81B | 752.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.03T | 1.32T | 1.21T | 1.21T | 874.67B | 1.40T |
| Stockholders Equity | 178.94B | 194.90B | 181.92B | 180.27B | 169.83B | 173.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 29.40B | 20.39B | 10.61B | 104.19B | 1.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 30.88B | 20.78B | 12.81B | 107.31B | 5.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.36B | -47.40B | -24.36B | -42.57B | -18.62B | -23.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 17.66B | -2.21B | 17.66B | -4.53B | -57.59B | 32.35B |
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
594.00
Price Trends
738.85
Positive
700.87
Positive
616.21
Positive
Market Momentum
8.70
Negative
55.37
Neutral
66.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8616, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 594 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 739.17, below the 50-day MA of 738.85, and below the 200-day MA of 616.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8616.
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | ¥59.99B | 10.05 | 17.21% | 4.27% | 11.13% | 20.95% | |
72 Outperform | ¥2.09T | 3.01 | 20.02% | 2.63% | 31.37% | 148.24% | |
70 Outperform | ¥40.80B | 10.52 | 6.18% | 4.42% | 30.88% | 193.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | ¥170.87B | 10.82 | 7.40% | 5.60% | 15.68% | 49.07% | |
67 Neutral | ¥113.30B | 18.28 | 5.11% | 5.07% | -26.93% | -29.39% | |
53 Neutral | ¥25.09B | -8.03 | ― | ― | -45.54% | -286.03% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8616
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
688.00
259.92
60.72%
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Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Corporate Events
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Profit Jumps 50% on Market Tailwinds and Overseas Gains
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported a strong improvement in consolidated results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, supported by favorable market conditions in Japan and the U.S. and the tailwind from the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement. Op...
Tokai Tokyo Books Major Extraordinary Losses on Subsidiary and Affiliate Investments
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has booked significant extraordinary losses for the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by asset impairments and valuation adjustments at key group companies. The move underscores a cautious stance on the recovery ...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Highlights Outline FY2026 Performance and Business Mix
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has released financial highlights for the fiscal year ending March 2026, outlining consolidated performance metrics such as operating revenue, non-operating profits, and profits by business category. The group also d...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Posts Strong Earnings and Hikes Dividend for FY2025
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported a solid improvement in earnings for the year ended March 31, 2026, with operating revenue and net operating revenue both rising double digits and operating profit increasing more than 26%. Profit attributabl...
Tokai Tokyo Revises Leadership Changes at Core Securities Subsidiary
Mar 26, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has announced a partial revision to its previously disclosed changes in representative directors at its core subsidiary, Tokai Tokyo Securities. The update clarifies adjustments related to the post-retirement appoint...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Plans Higher Dividend to Mark 25th Anniversary
Mar 26, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has announced a projected year-end dividend of 28 yen per share for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, consisting of an ordinary dividend of 20 yen and a commemorative dividend of 8 yen to mark the group’s ...
Tokai Tokyo Overhauls Leadership at Core Securities Subsidiary
Mar 18, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has announced upcoming changes in the top leadership of its core subsidiary, Tokai Tokyo Securities, following a preliminary decision by the subsidiary’s Board of Directors on March 18, 2026. The move reflects ...
Tokai Tokyo Adjusts Restricted Stock Issuance and Cancels Matching Treasury Shares
Mar 13, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has completed the payment process for issuing new shares as restricted stock compensation to full-time employees, resulting in 813,400 common shares being issued instead of the previously planned 836,500 after some e...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Confirms Reviewed Nine-Month Results and Interim Dividend
Feb 13, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings announced that certified public accountants have completed their interim review of the Japanese-language quarterly consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with no revisions requ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.