Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (8616) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥184.53B
• Dividend Yield: 5.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 947.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 3.10%
• EPS Growth: 17.73%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 2,655
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 24.26
• Shares Outstanding: 260,582,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 787,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 947,940
• PEG Ratio: 1.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥828.00 ▲(39.39% Upside)

The overall stock score reflects a strong valuation with an attractive dividend yield and reasonable P/E ratio, combined with positive technical indicators showing bullish momentum. However, financial performance is mixed, with challenges in revenue growth and high leverage posing potential risks. Investors should monitor these factors closely.

Positive Factors

Diversified Business Model

Tokai Tokyo's diversified business across brokerage, asset management and advisory creates multiple durable revenue streams and cross-selling opportunities. This reduces exposure to any single market cycle, supports client retention, and stabilizes revenues over months to years.

Strong Cash Generation

Positive free cash flow trends and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio indicate sustainable cash generation. This underpins dividend capacity, organic investment, and debt servicing ability, providing longer‑term financial flexibility despite cyclical earnings.

Margin Resilience

Stable gross margins paired with healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins point to durable operating efficiency and cost control. Such margin resilience offers operating leverage that helps absorb revenue volatility and funds strategic initiatives without quickly eroding profitability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

A significant debt‑to‑equity ratio indicates reliance on leverage that can increase funding costs and sensitivity to interest rate moves. Over a multi‑month horizon this constrains capital allocation, raises refinancing risk, and limits capacity for opportunistic investments.

Inconsistent Revenue Growth

Inconsistent top‑line growth and a recent revenue decline suggest structural pressures in client acquisition or market share. Without steadier revenue expansion, margin improvements and cash flow gains may be insufficient to drive sustainable earnings growth and scale asset management offerings.

Mixed Financial Position

The combination of decent profitability but constrained revenue momentum and elevated leverage signals uneven fundamentals. This may pressure return on equity and limit strategic flexibility, requiring management to prioritize deleveraging and consistent growth to improve long‑term resilience.

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. (8616) is a Japan-based financial services holding company that operates through its subsidiaries in various sectors such as securities, asset management, and financial advisory services. The company offers a wide range of core products and services, including brokerage services for individual and institutional investors, investment trusts, and other financial products. It also engages in the provision of financial consulting and investment advisory services, thereby catering to both retail and corporate clients.

How the Company Makes Money

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings generates revenue primarily through its securities trading operations, which include commissions from brokerage services for buying and selling stocks and other financial instruments. Additionally, the company earns income from asset management fees associated with its investment trusts and managed accounts. Other key revenue streams include advisory fees from financial consulting services and interest income from proprietary trading activities. The company's partnerships with various financial institutions and its focus on enhancing digital services contribute to its competitive positioning and revenue growth.

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings demonstrates a mixed financial position. While profitability and cash flow metrics are generally positive, indicating strong operational capabilities, challenges in revenue growth and high leverage could pose future risks. The company needs to focus on improving revenue trajectory and managing debt levels to enhance financial stability and shareholder value.

Income Statement

The company shows a stable gross profit margin over the years, reflecting effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has experienced fluctuations, indicating some volatility in operational efficiency. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decrease in the most recent year, which might suggest challenges in market conditions or competitiveness. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, providing a cushion for operations.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet highlights a significant debt-to-equity ratio, pointing to reliance on leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. The return on equity is positive but has seen better performance in past years. The equity ratio is relatively strong, indicating a solid asset base backed by equity, which provides financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals positive trends in free cash flow, indicating efficient cash management and operational success. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, historical fluctuations in cash flows from investing and financing activities need attention, as they could impact future liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.45B	86.33B	89.20B	73.38B	80.97B	69.36B
Gross Profit	78.10B	83.18B	86.69B	69.60B	78.25B	67.04B
EBITDA	11.51B	15.64B	19.03B	6.72B	13.07B	13.02B
Net Income	8.11B	11.05B	10.19B	1.95B	13.15B	9.09B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.22T	1.41T	1.40T	1.06T	1.58T	1.42T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	404.50B	531.91B	417.00B	392.46B	618.89B	666.98B
Total Debt	650.49B	388.26B	643.97B	521.81B	752.38B	752.16B
Total Liabilities	1.03T	1.21T	1.21T	874.67B	1.40T	1.24T
Stockholders Equity	178.94B	181.92B	180.27B	169.83B	173.23B	166.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	35.13B	20.39B	10.61B	104.19B	1.49B	-75.27B
Operating Cash Flow	35.52B	20.78B	12.81B	107.31B	5.67B	-73.07B
Investing Cash Flow	-24.36B	-24.36B	-42.57B	-18.62B	-23.01B	-12.40B
Financing Cash Flow	17.66B	17.66B	-4.53B	-57.59B	32.35B	104.81B

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 594.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8616, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 594 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 703.85, below the 50-day MA of 662.12, and above the 200-day MA of 547.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 23.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.28 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8616.

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8624	78 Outperform	¥35.78B	20.09	6.18%	4.42%	1.56%	-9.90%
8739	74 Outperform	¥54.88B	11.87	17.21%	4.27%	7.60%	7.20%
8473	72 Outperform	¥2.46T	8.14	20.02%	2.63%	23.96%	179.16%
8616	72 Outperform	¥184.53B	14.94	6.79%	5.60%	3.10%	17.73%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
7347	62 Neutral	¥15.92B	232.33	―	2.52%	1.35%	-91.61%
8595	60 Neutral	¥129.84B	19.74	5.11%	5.07%	-19.64%	-31.08%

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Corporate Events

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Marks 25th Anniversary with Restricted Stock Grant to Employees

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has approved the grant of restricted stock compensation to its full-time employees, including those seconded to subsidiaries, as part of a special program marking the group’s 25th anniversary. The scheme is designed both to reward past contributions and to align employees more closely with the company’s performance and share price by linking the number of shares granted to individual tenure and requiring employees to invest a monetary claim, equivalent to the stock’s recent market price, into newly issued common shares that are then subject to transfer restrictions until June 30, 2026. By tying employee incentives to long-term corporate value and mandating that the shares be held in restricted accounts at CHEER Securities, the company aims to strengthen employee engagement, support their long-term wealth building, and promote greater value sharing with shareholders, potentially improving organizational cohesion and reinforcing its competitive position in the financial services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8616) stock is a Buy with a Yen718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings stock, see the JP:8616 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Outlines Strategic Plans for 2026

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings announced its management strategy for the fiscal year ending March 2026, highlighting efforts to diversify products and services and strengthen human resources. The company has achieved its medium-term management targets for assets under custody and stable earnings ahead of schedule, despite delays in expanding its customer base through partnerships and digital business monetization. The company is also considering transitioning from capital enhancement to utilization and has received a high customer-oriented rating, indicating a strong focus on customer satisfaction and social value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8616) stock is a Hold with a Yen639.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings stock, see the JP:8616 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Reports Semi-Annual Financial Results

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported its consolidated financial results for the six months ending September 30, 2025, highlighting a decrease in net income and operating revenue compared to the previous year. Despite the challenges in forecasting due to market volatility, the company announced dividends, including a commemorative dividend, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8616) stock is a Hold with a Yen639.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings stock, see the JP:8616 Stock Forecast page.