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Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
(8616)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
¥833.00
▲(40.24% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (stronger profitability and renewed growth) but held back by balance-sheet leverage and cash-flow volatility. Technical indicators add near-term pressure with a bearish trend setup, while valuation is a key offset given the modest P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Profitability recovery
A meaningful margin rebound and strong 2026 revenue growth signal improved operating efficiency and product/fee mix. Sustained higher margins enhance earnings resilience, fund reinvestment and shareholder returns, and provide a buffer versus cyclical revenue swings if the firm preserves this cost discipline.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage, despite improvement, constrains financial flexibility and raises vulnerability to interest rate or market shocks. High debt levels limit capacity for opportunistic investment or aggressive buybacks, and increase refinancing and covenant risks in a prolonged downturn, pressuring long-term stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability recovery
A meaningful margin rebound and strong 2026 revenue growth signal improved operating efficiency and product/fee mix. Sustained higher margins enhance earnings resilience, fund reinvestment and shareholder returns, and provide a buffer versus cyclical revenue swings if the firm preserves this cost discipline.
Read all positive factors
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (8616) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥190.74B
Dividend Yield5.6%
Average Volume (3M)947.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth16.00%
EPS Growth49.21%
CountryJP
Employees2,655
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)65.72
Shares Outstanding260,582,120
10 Day Avg. Volume787,500
30 Day Avg. Volume947,940
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.92
Price to Sales (P/S)1.78
P/FCF Ratio6.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)57.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥98.70B
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc., a securities company based in Tokyo, Japan, commenced operations in 1929. The firm delivers a broad spectrum of financial services, encompassing foreign equities, international and structured bonds, and deriva...
How the Company Makes Money
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings makes money primarily through its securities businesses by earning fees and commissions for brokering customers’ trades in financial instruments (e.g., equities and other securities) and by collecting distribution an...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 100.96B | 87.27B | 89.10B | 73.52B | 81.54B |
| Gross Profit | 87.20B | 76.34B | 79.16B | 62.62B | 72.45B |
| EBITDA | 26.70B | 20.94B | 22.05B | 9.66B | 21.01B |
| Net Income | 16.57B | 11.05B | 10.19B | 1.95B | 13.15B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.53T | 1.41T | 1.40T | 1.06T | 1.58T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 490.04B | 531.91B | 417.00B | 392.46B | 618.89B |
| Total Debt | 394.60B | 388.26B | 643.97B | 521.81B | 752.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.32T | 1.21T | 1.21T | 874.67B | 1.40T |
| Stockholders Equity | 194.90B | 181.92B | 180.27B | 169.83B | 173.23B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 29.40B | 20.39B | 10.61B | 104.19B | 1.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.88B | 20.78B | 12.81B | 107.31B | 5.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.40B | -24.36B | -42.57B | -18.62B | -23.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.21B | 17.66B | -4.53B | -57.59B | 32.35B |
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
594.00
Price Trends
724.44
Positive
730.96
Positive
677.09
Positive
Market Momentum
12.86
Negative
64.85
Neutral
72.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8616, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 594 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 755.10, below the 50-day MA of 724.44, and below the 200-day MA of 677.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 12.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8616.
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | ¥69.95B | 13.98 | 17.21% | 4.27% | 13.39% | 22.07% | |
72 Outperform | ¥1.79T | 4.21 | 20.02% | 2.63% | 23.87% | 148.64% | |
70 Outperform | ¥45.79B | 10.76 | 6.18% | 4.42% | 30.88% | 192.90% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | ¥190.74B | 11.81 | 7.40% | 5.60% | 16.00% | 49.21% | |
67 Neutral | ¥124.02B | 19.00 | 5.11% | 5.07% | -26.93% | -29.49% | |
50 Neutral | ¥29.29B | -15.41 | ― | ― | -62.04% | -630.69% |
* Financial Sector Average
JP:8616
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
776.00
291.27
60.09%
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Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Corporate Events
Tokai Tokyo Financial Revises Board Appointment Disclosure
Jun 26, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings corrected a previously announced board appointment, clarifying the designation of Director and Audit and Supervisory Committee Member Katsuhiko Ota. The update refines the description of his role, indicating that he ...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Revamps Board of Directors and Strengthens Governance
Jun 25, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has reshaped its governance structure with the appointment of a new Board of Directors following resolutions passed at its 114th Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting. The board lineup, approved by the board itself on...
Tokai Tokyo Outlines Management Strategy for FY 2026
May 27, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has released materials outlining its management strategy briefing for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, emphasizing a review of recent operating results. The document also signals ongoing work on its medium-term ...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Plans New Stock Option Program for Executives and Staff
May 20, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings plans to seek shareholder approval in June to authorize its board to issue up to 1,600 stock acquisition rights as stock options to executive directors, officers and employees of the company and its subsidiaries. The...
Tokai Tokyo Securities Proposes Board Changes Ahead of June Shareholders’ Meeting
May 20, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., Ltd., the wholly owned securities subsidiary of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, has proposed changes to its board of directors, including both standard directors and those serving on the Audit and Supervisory Committee....
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Plans Board Changes Ahead of June Shareholders’ Meeting
May 20, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. has proposed a reshuffle of its board ahead of the 114th Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting, retaining key leaders including Chairman and Representative Director Tateaki Ishida and President and Representativ...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Lifts Profit and Dividend Amid Stronger Balance Sheet
May 20, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported a solid improvement in performance for the year ended March 31, 2026, with operating revenue and net operating revenue both rising, and profit attributable to owners of the parent increasing by more than 20%...
Tokai Tokyo Revises Pension Liability Calculations for FY2026 Highlights
May 20, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has issued a correction to its previously announced financial highlights for the fiscal year ending March 2026, originally released on April 30. The company identified errors in the calculation of retirement benefit ...
Tokai Tokyo Revises Pension Accounting, Boosts Assets and Capital Base
May 20, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has corrected its consolidated financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2026, after discovering a miscalculation in retirement benefit liabilities under its defined benefit corporate pension plan. The adjust...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Profit Jumps 50% on Market Tailwinds and Overseas Gains
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported a strong improvement in consolidated results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, supported by favorable market conditions in Japan and the U.S. and the tailwind from the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement. Op...
Tokai Tokyo Books Major Extraordinary Losses on Subsidiary and Affiliate Investments
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has booked significant extraordinary losses for the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by asset impairments and valuation adjustments at key group companies. The move underscores a cautious stance on the recovery ...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Highlights Outline FY2026 Performance and Business Mix
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has released financial highlights for the fiscal year ending March 2026, outlining consolidated performance metrics such as operating revenue, non-operating profits, and profits by business category. The group also d...
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Posts Strong Earnings and Hikes Dividend for FY2025
Apr 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported a solid improvement in earnings for the year ended March 31, 2026, with operating revenue and net operating revenue both rising double digits and operating profit increasing more than 26%. Profit attributabl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.