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SBI Holdings Inc (JP:8473)
:8473

SBI Holdings (8473) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:8473

SBI Holdings

(8473)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
¥3,906.00
▲(11.00% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong recent financial performance and cash generation, tempered by high leverage and historical earnings/cash-flow volatility. Valuation is a clear positive due to the low P/E and supportive dividend yield, while technicals are neutral with a broader uptrend but softer near-term positioning.
Positive Factors
Robust Revenue Growth
A 40.35% revenue increase signals durable top-line expansion across SBI's businesses, supporting scale and investment capacity. Sustained revenue momentum over several quarters can fund product development, distribution expansion and absorb cyclical shocks, strengthening fundamentals.
Diversified Financial & Fintech Model
SBI's multi-vertical footprint and fintech/crypto orientation provide structural revenue diversification and multiple growth engines. This reduces dependence on any single market cycle and enables cross-selling and tech-driven efficiencies that are likely to support stable earnings over months.
Solid Profitability and Return on Equity
High gross and respectable net margins alongside a 12.85% ROE indicate efficient core economics and effective use of equity. Durable margin strength provides cushion for reinvestment and shareholder returns, underpinning sustainable earnings trajectory despite sector cycles.
Negative Factors
High Leverage Burden
A debt-to-equity ratio of 4.54 implies substantial leverage that heightens interest obligations and refinancing risk. Over a multi-month horizon, elevated debt can constrain strategic flexibility, limit capital allocation to growth initiatives, and amplify downside in stressed conditions.
Poor Cash Conversion
Declining free cash flow and very low operating-CF-to-income ratios show income is not translating into cash. This structural cash conversion weakness limits ability to service debt, invest organically, or sustain distributions, potentially forcing external financing or asset sales.
Very Low Equity Ratio
An equity ratio of 3.93% indicates a minimal equity buffer relative to assets, increasing vulnerability to shocks and reducing loss-absorbing capacity. Structurally thin equity magnifies operational or market setbacks and constrains prudent balance-sheet management over the medium term.

SBI Holdings (8473) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

SBI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSBI Holdings, Inc. engages in the online financial service businesses and investment activities in Japan and internationally. It operates through Financial Services Business; Asset Management Business; and Biotechnology, Healthcare and Medical Informatics Business segments. The company offers financial products and services, including brokerage and investment banking; Internet banking; auto, cancer, fire, and earthquake, as well as life insurance; short term insurance; FX margin trading; online securities; exchange and transaction services related to digital assets; management of defined-contribution pension, etc.; leasing and lending services; operation of proprietary trading system; control and operation of the e-commerce settlement business; and remittance and back office support services. It also provides private equity, venture capital fund management, M&A advisory, savings bank, commercial banking, investment advisory and management, and rating information services; real estate secured loans; and rent guarantees for rental housing. In addition, the company researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products, health foods, and cosmetics; develops, produces, sells, and maintains medical information integration systems; and researches and develops antibody drugs and nucleic acid medicines for cancer and immunology. Further, it operates a fund-raising platform; acts as a crypto-asset broker; develops, manufactures, and sells crypto-asset mining systems; operates and develops cybersecurity systems; provides blockchain platform; invests in real estate properties; exports used cars; and offers healthcare services, as well as revitalization services. Additionally, the company engages in the mining of digital assets; and e-sports and renewable energy business. The company was formerly known as Softbank Investment Corporation and changed its name to SBI Holdings, Inc. in July 2005. SBI Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneySBI Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams. Its main revenue sources include fees from financial services such as brokerage commissions from its securities business, interest income from banking operations, and premium income from its insurance segment. The company also earns significant revenues from its asset management division, managing investment funds and portfolios for clients. Additionally, SBI's venture capital activities contribute to its earnings by investing in startups and emerging technologies, particularly in the blockchain and fintech sectors. Strategic partnerships with various technology firms and financial institutions enhance its service offerings and market reach, further driving its revenue growth.

SBI Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong TTM growth and profitability (revenue +13.7%, ~22% net margin) plus solid operating and free cash flow. Offsetting factors are elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.65x) and notable multi-year volatility in earnings and cash flows.
Income Statement
78
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a clear step-up in scale and profitability: revenue is up 13.7% with strong margins (about 62% gross margin and ~22% net margin). Annual results also show a multi-year revenue expansion (2021–2025), with margin improvement into 2025. The key weakness is earnings volatility—net profit margin swung sharply (very high in 2022, much lower in 2023–2024, then improved in 2025), which suggests a less stable earnings base typical of market-sensitive income streams.
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
The balance sheet is asset-heavy (total assets ~¥37.2T in TTM) but carries elevated leverage: debt-to-equity is ~3.65x in TTM (and higher in the recent annual period). Profitability on equity improved meaningfully (TTM return on equity ~20.9%), which helps offset leverage concerns. The main risk is that high leverage reduces flexibility if market conditions or investment income weaken, and equity remains relatively small versus the overall balance sheet.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) cash generation is strong with operating cash flow (~¥2.51T) and free cash flow (~¥2.11T) both solid and free cash flow covering a large portion of net income. However, free cash flow growth is down about 10% in TTM, and historical cash flow has been volatile (notably negative operating and free cash flow in 2021–2022), which tempers the quality/stability of cash conversion across cycles.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44T1.21T956.98B763.62B541.14B
Gross Profit834.12B655.82B573.24B499.64B366.05B
EBITDA353.35B192.72B172.29B202.52B185.87B
Net Income162.12B87.24B35.45B366.85B81.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets32.11T27.14T22.31T17.84T7.21T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.26T4.58T3.78T4.86T3.10T
Total Debt5.72T4.48T3.68T3.96T2.00T
Total Liabilities30.35T25.23T20.56T16.25T6.49T
Stockholders Equity1.26T1.26T1.01T924.60B562.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.46T1.30T923.17B-340.01B-193.82B
Operating Cash Flow1.51T1.35T960.74B-314.05B-178.40B
Investing Cash Flow-1.06T-65.12B-1.08T1.84T-82.07B
Financing Cash Flow445.89B29.17B810.42B163.30B210.82B

SBI Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3519.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3448.82
Positive
100DMA
3382.07
Positive
200DMA
2968.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.28
Positive
RSI
50.46
Neutral
STOCH
58.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8473, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3519 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3572.30, above the 50-day MA of 3448.82, and above the 200-day MA of 2968.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8473.

SBI Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
¥62.65B12.3617.21%4.27%7.60%7.20%
72
Outperform
$2.37T5.5720.02%2.63%23.96%179.16%
72
Outperform
¥187.76B14.046.79%5.60%3.10%17.73%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
62
Neutral
¥16.08B234.592.52%1.35%-91.61%
60
Neutral
¥130.58B20.445.11%5.07%-19.64%-31.08%
46
Neutral
¥4.69B16.534.15%-6.60%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8473
SBI Holdings
3,519.00
1,436.83
69.01%
JP:8595
Jafco Co
2,501.50
391.29
18.54%
JP:8739
Sparx Group Co
2,005.00
556.35
38.40%
JP:8616
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
749.00
274.02
57.69%
JP:8518
Japan Asia Investment Company, Limited
201.00
-8.00
-3.83%
JP:7347
Mercuria Holdings Co., Ltd.
839.00
99.48
13.45%

SBI Holdings Corporate Events

SBI Holdings links 2026 shareholder perks to XRP vouchers and ALApromo goods
Feb 4, 2026

The board approved a March 31, 2026 shareholder record-date benefit program that lets investors choose either XRP vouchers via SBI VC Trade or a package of high-value supplements and cosmetics from SBI ALApromo, with enhanced rewards for long-term holders and broad 50% product discounts for all investors, including those with odd-lot stakes. By tying perks to crypto access and its wellness portfolio while rewarding loyalty, SBI signals an intent to deepen retail investor engagement and cross-promote group businesses ahead of new product launches, potentially strengthening both capital-market support and consumer-brand visibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3913.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Posts Surge in Nine-Month Profit and Raises Interim Dividend After Stock Split
Feb 4, 2026

SBI Holdings reported strong consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 47% year on year to ¥1,489.7 billion and profit attributable to owners of the company surging 245.1% to ¥349.1 billion. Basic earnings per share more than tripled to ¥546.54 following robust profit growth, while total comprehensive income expanded sharply and total assets increased to ¥37.24 trillion from ¥32.11 trillion at the previous fiscal year-end. The equity attributable to owners of the company also climbed to ¥1.74 trillion, lifting the equity ratio to 4.7%, indicating a gradual strengthening of the balance sheet, and the company implemented a two-for-one stock split on December 1, 2025, alongside a higher interim dividend of ¥40 per share for the current fiscal year, underscoring management’s confidence and an improving return to shareholders, even as the full-year dividend forecast remains undetermined.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3913.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Reports Progress on ¥50 Billion Share Buyback Program
Feb 2, 2026

SBI Holdings has disclosed the progress of its ongoing share buyback program authorized by its board in November 2025, conducted under Japan’s Companies Act. In January 2026 the company repurchased 2,904,000 common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for approximately ¥10.1 billion, bringing total buybacks under the current authorization to 10,688,300 shares at a cost of about ¥36.1 billion, out of a maximum planned acquisition of up to 20 million shares or ¥50 billion by March 31, 2026. The buyback indicates an active capital management policy that may enhance shareholder value and earnings per share, while signaling management’s confidence in the company’s valuation and financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3913.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Finalizes Terms for 2025 Tax-Qualified Stock Options
Jan 26, 2026

SBI Holdings has finalized the terms for its 2025 second issuance of tax-qualified stock options, allocating 32,502 stock acquisition rights linked to 3,250,200 shares of common stock to 731 employees and executive officers across the parent company and its subsidiaries. The options carry an exercise price of ¥3,365 per share, set at the company’s closing market price on December 9, 2025, underscoring SBI’s use of equity-based incentives to align employee compensation with shareholder interests and support long-term group-wide performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen4005.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Reports Progress on ¥50 Billion Share Buyback Program
Jan 5, 2026

SBI Holdings has disclosed the progress of its ongoing share buyback program authorized by its board in November 2025, under which the company repurchased 7,784,300 common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2025 at a total cost of approximately ¥25.97 billion. The buyback forms part of a broader authorization allowing purchases of up to 20 million shares or ¥50 billion through March 31, 2026, signaling continued efforts to optimize capital structure, support the share price, and enhance shareholder returns through active treasury share management.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3679.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Secures South Korean Approval for Kyobo Life Acquisition
Dec 19, 2025

SBI Holdings has obtained the required approvals from South Korean financial authorities to proceed with its planned acquisition of shares in Seoul-based Kyobo Life Insurance Co., Ltd. from multiple existing shareholders, paving the way for Kyobo Life to become an equity-method affiliate of the Japanese group. The transaction is expected to generate a gain on negative goodwill for SBI Holdings, with the final amount to be determined based on Kyobo Life’s consolidated financial statements at the time the deal closes, underscoring SBI’s strategic push into the South Korean insurance market and its potential positive impact on the company’s financial results and regional insurance business portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3679.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Finalizes Terms for 2025 Paid Stock Options to Directors
Dec 19, 2025

SBI Holdings has finalized the detailed terms for its 2025 first issuance of paid stock acquisition rights (stock options) to directors of the company and its subsidiaries, following an earlier announcement in November. The company will issue 15,690 stock acquisition rights, corresponding to 3,138,000 shares of common stock, to 92 directors, with the number of shares per right and the exercise price adjusted to reflect a share split effective December 1, 2025, potentially aligning executive incentives more closely with shareholder value and supporting the group’s long-term corporate governance and compensation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3679.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Lists SBI Shinsei Bank, Records Significant Gain
Dec 17, 2025

SBI Holdings has announced the successful listing of its subsidiary, SBI Shinsei Bank, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, along with a partial sale of its shares. This move is expected to generate an extraordinary gain of up to JPY 43.6 billion for SBI Holdings, although the overall impact on its consolidated business performance is anticipated to be minor.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3679.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Issues Stock Options to Boost Employee Engagement
Dec 9, 2025

SBI Holdings, Inc. announced the issuance of tax-qualified stock options to its employees and executive officers to strengthen group unity and enhance motivation towards achieving mid-to-long-term performance growth. This move is expected to increase the company’s corporate value and involves a potential issuance of up to 3,300,000 shares, representing 0.5% of the total issued shares, with implications for employee engagement and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Buy with a Yen3679.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Expands Stake in CREAL Inc. to Boost Real Estate Investments
Dec 5, 2025

SBI Holdings has announced its decision to acquire additional shares in CREAL Inc., a company specializing in asset management platform business, through a third-party allotment. This acquisition will make CREAL an equity-method affiliate of SBI Holdings, allowing for deeper collaboration in the real estate finance sector, particularly in the area of security tokens. This strategic move is expected to enhance SBI’s position in the real estate investment market and provide diverse investment opportunities to its clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Hold with a Yen6790.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Boosts Director Incentives with Stock Options
Nov 21, 2025

SBI Holdings has announced the issuance of paid stock options to its directors and those of its subsidiaries, aiming to boost motivation and morale for achieving long-term performance growth and increased corporate value. The issuance involves 16,500 stock acquisition rights, potentially delivering up to 1,650,000 shares, contingent on meeting pre-set performance standards, thus aligning the interests of directors with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Hold with a Yen6790.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings to Record Extraordinary Gain from SBI Shinsei Bank Share Sale
Nov 21, 2025

SBI Holdings announced that its subsidiary, SBI Shinsei Bank, has received approval to list its shares on the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The company plans a partial sale of these shares, which will result in an extraordinary gain of approximately JPY 42,003 million in its non-consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026. Despite this sale, SBI Shinsei Bank will remain a consolidated subsidiary, and the impact on SBI Holdings’ overall business performance is expected to be minor.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Hold with a Yen6790.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Holdings Announces Share Buyback Plan to Boost Strategic Flexibility
Nov 21, 2025

SBI Holdings has announced a plan to acquire up to 10 million of its own shares, with the possibility of increasing to 20 million shares following a stock split. This strategic move aims to facilitate future capital and business alliances, mergers, and acquisitions, thereby strengthening its business foundation and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Hold with a Yen6790.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

SBI Shinsei Bank Gains Approval for Tokyo Stock Exchange Listing
Nov 13, 2025

SBI Holdings announced that its subsidiary, SBI Shinsei Bank, has received approval to list its shares on the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This move is part of SBI Shinsei Bank’s strategy to expand its business foundation and enhance profitability, following its full repayment of public funds. The listing is expected to diversify capital raising methods and increase operational flexibility, contributing to the overall corporate value of SBI Holdings. Despite the listing, SBI Shinsei Bank will remain a consolidated subsidiary, maintaining a degree of independence in its management and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8473) stock is a Hold with a Yen6790.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SBI Holdings stock, see the JP:8473 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 06, 2026