Toyota (6201) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥6.27T
• Dividend Yield: 0.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 401.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 2.91%
• EPS Growth: -11.26%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 77,824
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 319.07
• Shares Outstanding: 325,840,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 377,800
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 401,383
• PEG Ratio: 0.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.95
• P/FCF Ratio: -98.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 739.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥4.14T

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥21,185.00 ▲(17.66% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/05/26

The score is driven primarily by solid but not standout financial performance (steady profitability but modest ROE and uneven free cash flow) and constructive technical momentum with price above major moving averages. These positives are tempered by a relatively high P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue streams

Toyota's mix of vehicle sales, parts/after‑sales and financial services creates multiple durable cash sources. Financial services and parts provide recurring margin and support affordability and dealer financing, reducing cyclical revenue exposure and aiding long‑term cash generation.

Global scale and brands

Toyota's global manufacturing footprint and strong Toyota/Lexus brands deliver scale advantages in purchasing, production and distribution. This scale supports cost competitiveness, wide dealer reach and brand loyalty, helping sustain margins and market share over the medium term.

Manageable leverage

A moderate TTM debt/equity (~0.30) and an expanded balance sheet give Toyota financial flexibility to fund capex and EV transition without excessive refinancing risk. Manageable leverage supports steady investment and de‑risking through cycles compared with highly leveraged peers.

Negative Factors

Low returns on equity

ROE near ~4% TTM signals modest profitability relative to capital employed. Persistently low ROE limits shareholder value creation, constrains internal funding for new initiatives and pressures capital allocation choices, which can slow scaling of higher‑return businesses over time.

Volatile free cash flow

Material swings in free cash flow, including negative years and TTM FCF well below net income, weaken cash conversion. That reduces ability to consistently de‑lever, sustain buybacks/dividends, or self‑fund large EV and capex programs without external financing over the medium term.

Slowing growth and margin pressure

Top‑line growth has moderated to low single digits (TTM ~1.8%) while margins show TTM compression versus prior annual periods. Slower sales growth plus margin pressures reduce earnings leverage and make long‑run profit expansion dependent on cost actions or favorable model mix shifts.

Toyota Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toyota Industries Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, material handling equipment, textile machinery, and others in Japan and internationally. The company operates through Automobile, Materials Handling Equipment, and Textile Machinery segments. It provides vehicles; gas, gasoline, and diesel engines for automobiles, industrial equipment, turbochargers, and foundry parts; car air-conditioning compressors; car electronics comprising DC-DC converters, rear inverters, direct-cooling devices, DC-AC inverters, and charging systems; and stamping dies consists of automotive and lift truck stamping dies. The company also offers counterbalanced lift trucks, electric reach trucks, skid steer loaders, tow tractors, and electric tow tractors; stationary/fixed type racks, nesting pallets, mobile racks, and automated storage and retrieval systems; automatic guided vehicle systems, high speed rail guided vehicle systems, and automatic guided lift and pallet trucks. In addition, it provides spinning machines consisting of ring spinning and roving frames; weaving machinery; and cotton classing and yarn testing instruments, as well as leases materials handling systems and industrial equipment. Further, the company offers aerial work platforms; in-house transporters; software; and funding, loan, and other financial services. Additionally, it is involved in the operation of sports facility and nursing homes; real estate leasing; trucking, warehousing, distribution consulting; building management, construction, and real estate; travel agency, renovation, sale of tube amplifiers, and organizing and running of events; personnel placement, contract office staffing, and patent investigation; management and operation of employee clubs and restaurant management; administrative processing for payroll accounting; and contract manufacturing of electronic devices, as well as sale of hardware. The company was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Kariya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Toyota generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles, which includes passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes significant income from its financial services segment, which offers financing options for customers and dealerships, as well as leasing products. Additionally, Toyota earns revenue through parts and accessories sales, and it has established partnerships with various companies to enhance its technology offerings, such as collaborations in autonomous driving and connected vehicle technologies. The company's global presence and strong brand reputation also contribute to its robust sales performance across different markets.

Toyota Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth with solid industry profitability, but recent TTM margin compression, modest ROE (~4% TTM), and volatile free cash flow (including negative FCF in some annual periods) reduce the overall financial strength.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the last several years (2022–2024), with growth moderating in the latest periods (Annual 2025 low-single digits; TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ~1.8%). Profitability is solid and relatively steady for the industry: gross margin sits around ~22–24% and net margin around ~5.8–6.6%. A key watch-out is some margin compression in TTM versus Annual 2025 (lower operating and EBITDA margins), suggesting either cost pressure or mix/investment headwinds even as sales continue to rise.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks reasonable: debt-to-equity is generally moderate (roughly ~0.28–0.44 historically) and is ~0.30 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a manageable debt load versus equity. The balance sheet has expanded materially alongside the business (assets and equity higher over time), but returns on equity remain modest (about ~3.8–5.3% across periods, ~4.1% in TTM), implying the company is not generating especially high returns on its capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but volatile. Operating cash flow is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and free cash flow is positive and growing in TTM; however, annual results show swings, including negative free cash flow in 2023 and 2025. Cash conversion is a mixed picture: in TTM, free cash flow is meaningfully below net income (under ~50%), and operating cash flow relative to debt is low in all periods, which can limit balance-sheet de-risking speed during weaker cash years.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.20T	4.08T	3.83T	3.38T	2.71T	2.12T
Gross Profit	942.35B	951.57B	901.15B	756.18B	607.68B	490.41B
EBITDA	626.54B	691.39B	615.52B	534.71B	477.14B	403.68B
Net Income	244.44B	262.31B	228.78B	192.86B	180.31B	136.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.22T	9.40T	11.08T	7.82T	7.63T	6.50T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	534.71B	468.20B	740.21B	628.30B	588.43B	598.06B
Total Debt	1.83T	1.73T	1.71T	1.70T	1.39T	1.35T
Total Liabilities	5.05T	4.39T	4.93T	3.89T	3.61T	3.18T
Stockholders Equity	6.10T	4.90T	6.05T	3.84T	3.93T	3.24T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	179.98B	-39.45B	94.66B	-95.01B	83.71B	160.03B
Operating Cash Flow	368.99B	171.58B	443.59B	194.96B	321.08B	382.39B
Investing Cash Flow	-73.70B	-43.40B	47.90B	-427.64B	-229.81B	-404.16B
Financing Cash Flow	-248.76B	-198.65B	-209.49B	183.69B	-92.11B	-105.48B

Toyota Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18005.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6201, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18005 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19933.50, below the 50-day MA of 19068.20, and above the 200-day MA of 17335.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 331.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6201.

Toyota Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7269	74 Outperform	¥4.41T	10.58	12.95%	1.85%	2.99%	9.99%
6201	68 Neutral	¥6.27T	30.22	3.94%	0.78%	2.91%	-11.26%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
7267	59 Neutral	¥6.30T	12.57	5.23%	4.41%	-0.43%	-26.68%
7270	58 Neutral	¥2.09T	20.55	9.73%	3.61%	1.04%	-31.52%
7261	55 Neutral	¥824.81B	94.09	1.72%	4.52%	-0.83%	-75.20%
7201	47 Neutral	¥1.52T	-1.62	-16.69%	―	-3.01%	-755.71%

Toyota Corporate Events

Toyota Industries Sets Record Date for Potential Extraordinary Meeting Linked to Privatization Bid

Toyota Industries Corporation has set February 19, 2026 as the record date to determine shareholders eligible to vote at an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting planned for late April to mid‑May 2026. The meeting is being prepared in connection with a tender offer for the company’s shares initiated on January 15, 2026 by Toyota Asset Preparatory Co., Ltd., which aims, together with Toyota Motor Corporation, to make the company private. If the tender offer is successfully completed but does not result in full ownership, the extraordinary meeting is expected to vote on consolidating shares and amending the Articles of Incorporation to eliminate the current share unit structure, a step designed to facilitate a squeeze‑out of remaining minority shareholders and complete the privatization. If the tender offer fails, the record date will not take effect and the extraordinary shareholders’ meeting will not be convened.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6201) stock is a Buy with a Yen22126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota stock, see the JP:6201 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Industries’ Profit Slumps Despite Higher Sales as FY2026 Outlook Is Cut and Dividends Halted

Toyota Industries reported a 4.8% year-on-year increase in net sales to ¥3.17 trillion for the first nine months of FY2026, but saw operating profit drop 52.5% and profit attributable to owners of the parent fall 24.7%, reflecting significant margin pressure despite top-line growth. Total assets and equity rose, strengthening its balance sheet and lifting the equity ratio to 54.3%, but the company maintained a conservative stance on shareholder returns, paying no interim dividend and forecasting zero dividends for the full year, while also revising its full-year outlook downward to a 2.1% decline in net sales and a steep 54.9% fall in operating profit, signaling a more challenging operating environment and weaker earnings for stakeholders compared with the prior year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6201) stock is a Buy with a Yen22126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota stock, see the JP:6201 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Industries Backs Toyota Fudosan-Led Tender Offer and Urges Shareholders to Tender Shares

Toyota Industries Corporation announced that its board of directors has formally expressed support for a tender offer to acquire all of its common shares by Toyota Asset Preparatory Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Toyota Asset Co., Ltd. established by Toyota Fudosan Co., Ltd., and is recommending that shareholders tender their shares. The offer, to be launched on January 15, 2026 at 18,800 yen per share, follows the completion of required competition, foreign investment, and financial regulatory clearances across multiple jurisdictions, and is intended to lead to the offeror becoming the sole shareholder and the delisting of Toyota Industries’ shares, signaling a significant shift in the company’s ownership structure and capital market status with implications for existing public shareholders and its future governance under a closely held structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6201) stock is a Buy with a Yen19813.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota stock, see the JP:6201 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Group Unit to Launch Tender Offer to Take Toyota Industries Private

Toyota Asset Preparatory Co., Ltd., a company established by Toyota Fudosan Co., Ltd., has formally decided to launch a tender offer to acquire all common shares of Toyota Industries Corporation not already held by Toyota Motor Corporation or by Toyota Industries itself, as part of a broader transaction to take Toyota Industries private. Following a delay to complete required clearances under domestic and foreign competition laws, EU foreign subsidy rules, foreign investment controls, and U.K. and Swedish financial regulations, the offeror has now obtained the necessary approvals and is proceeding with the tender offer, marking a significant step in restructuring Toyota’s corporate group ownership and potentially reshaping the governance and market positioning of Toyota Industries once it is delisted from public markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6201) stock is a Buy with a Yen19813.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota stock, see the JP:6201 Stock Forecast page.