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SUBARU CORP (JP:7270)
:7270

SUBARU (7270) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:7270

SUBARU

(7270)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
¥3,166.00
▲(6.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/10/26
The score is driven primarily by weakening TTM profitability and a sharp drop in free cash flow, partially offset by a low-leverage balance sheet. Technically, the stock shows bearish trend signals (below major moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is mixed with a strong dividend yield but a moderately high P/E.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (~0.15 debt-to-equity) and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility. This conservatism supports capital allocation across capex, dividends or R&D during auto-cycle volatility, and gives the company buffer to invest in electrification and aerospace without immediate refinancing risk.
Positive free cash flow generation
Subaru still generates meaningful positive operating and free cash flow in the TTM, which underpins self-funding for capex and shareholder returns. Sustained absolute FCF supports strategic investment and optionality even as FCF growth slows, keeping long-term funding capacity intact.
Diversified operations and global footprint
A dual-focus model (automotive plus aerospace) and broad geographic exposure reduce single-market and single-cycle concentration. Aerospace contracts and global sales mix help smooth revenue volatility from auto cyclicality and provide engineering/manufacturing revenue streams over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp margin deterioration
A steep compression in net and EBIT margins materially reduces earnings power and the company's margin buffer. Sustained lower margins constrain reinvestment, reduce resilience to commodity or cost inflation, and heighten sensitivity to demand swings over the next several quarters.
Material free cash flow decline
A large drop in FCF and weaker cash conversion limits internal funding for capex, electrification, and shareholder payouts. Even with positive absolute FCF, the magnitude of the decline reduces financial flexibility and increases reliance on operational recovery to restore long-term investment capacity.
Weak revenue and earnings growth
Declining top-line and a pronounced EPS drop reflect demand, pricing or cost pressures that impair profitability sustainability. Structural slowdown in revenue and earnings undermines margins and the company's ability to scale returns on investments or regain prior margin levels without product or market mix improvements.

SUBARU (7270) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

SUBARU Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSubaru Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles and aerospace products worldwide. It operates through three segments: Automotive Business Unit, Aerospace Company, and Other Businesses. The company manufactures, sells, and repairs passenger cars and their components, airplanes, aerospace-related machinery, and related components; and rents and manages real estate properties. It is also involved in the shipping, land freight, and warehousing of vehicles; leasing and rental of vehicles; credit and financing of vehicles; inspection, service, and maintenance of aircrafts; and IT system development and operation services. The company was formerly known as Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. and changed its name to Subaru Corporation in April 2017. Subaru Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneySUBARU generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles, which includes passenger cars, SUVs, and crossovers. The company has a strong brand loyalty, particularly in markets like the United States, where it has positioned itself as a leader in all-wheel-drive technology. Key revenue streams include new vehicle sales, financing, and leasing services offered to customers, as well as parts and accessories sales. SUBARU also benefits from partnerships with other firms for technology sharing and joint ventures, enhancing its production capabilities and expanding its market reach. Additionally, the company earns income from its manufacturing operations in various global markets, optimizing production costs while meeting regional demand.

SUBARU Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Balance sheet strength is a key positive (low leverage with ~0.15 debt-to-equity), supporting resilience. However, TTM profitability has weakened sharply (net margin ~2.2% vs ~7.2% prior; EBIT margin ~3.7% vs ~10.6%), and free cash flow fell materially (about -56.6%), indicating near-term earnings and cash-flow pressure.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability has weakened meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus the last annual period: net margin fell to ~2.2% (from ~7.2%), and EBIT margin compressed to ~3.7% (from ~10.6%). Revenue is slightly down in TTM (about -2.8%), after several years of strong top-line expansion through 2024. Positives include still-positive operating profitability and historically better margins in the 2023–2025 annual run-rate, but the sharp TTM step-down points to near-term earnings pressure and reduced cushion against industry cyclicality.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Leverage looks conservative for an auto manufacturer, with debt-to-equity around ~0.15 in both TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and the latest annual period, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Equity has grown over the multi-year period, and total debt has been broadly stable. The main weakness is profitability on equity cooling in TTM (~3.8%) versus the strong 2024–2025 annual levels, which suggests the balance sheet is solid but currently generating less return.
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
Cash generation remains positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with operating cash flow of ~¥360B and free cash flow of ~¥151B, but free cash flow has dropped sharply (about -56.6% growth). Cash conversion has also softened, with free cash flow running at ~42% of net income in TTM (down from ~46–61% in prior annual periods). The positives are continued positive free cash flow and generally healthy cash generation in recent years, but the magnitude of the TTM decline raises concern about near-term volatility in funding capacity for capex, dividends, or buybacks.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.67T4.69T4.70T3.77T2.74T2.83T
Gross Profit733.13B980.34B992.43B703.00B473.49B465.14B
EBITDA423.92B727.82B754.21B520.39B334.23B323.09B
Net Income103.74B338.06B385.08B200.43B70.01B76.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.24T5.09T4.81T3.94T3.54T3.41T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments857.79B1.96T1.92T1.37T1.13T1.14T
Total Debt413.00B399.50B399.50B427.12B441.17B435.53B
Total Liabilities2.49T2.37T2.25T1.83T1.64T1.63T
Stockholders Equity2.75T2.71T2.56T2.10T1.89T1.78T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow150.87B226.85B467.79B308.89B9.41B96.85B
Operating Cash Flow359.67B492.14B767.66B503.76B195.65B289.38B
Investing Cash Flow-287.62B-404.08B-703.70B-336.81B-179.72B-272.17B
Financing Cash Flow-176.77B-187.32B-66.47B-122.31B-98.50B13.97B

SUBARU Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2971.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3318.09
Negative
100DMA
3321.99
Negative
200DMA
3023.55
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-108.71
Positive
RSI
35.35
Neutral
STOCH
21.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7270, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2971 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3170.22, below the 50-day MA of 3318.09, and below the 200-day MA of 3023.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -108.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:7270.

SUBARU Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
¥47.65T12.9012.89%2.78%6.44%11.88%
66
Neutral
¥604.65B169.81-0.65%3.33%-0.87%-105.50%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
¥6.30T12.575.23%4.41%-0.43%-26.68%
58
Neutral
¥2.09T20.559.73%3.61%1.04%-31.52%
55
Neutral
¥824.81B94.091.72%4.52%-0.83%-75.20%
47
Neutral
$1.52T-1.62-16.69%-3.01%-755.71%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:7270
SUBARU
2,966.50
327.86
12.43%
JP:7203
Toyota Motor
3,825.00
1,223.56
47.03%
JP:7211
Mitsubishi Motors
429.10
24.37
6.02%
JP:7267
Honda Motor Co
1,584.50
252.89
18.99%
JP:7261
Mazda Motor
1,388.50
431.59
45.10%
JP:7201
Nissan Motor Co
433.20
3.10
0.72%

SUBARU Corporate Events

Subaru Cuts Profit Outlook for FY2026 Despite Higher Revenue Forecast
Feb 6, 2026

Subaru Corporation has revised its consolidated financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, projecting higher revenue of ¥4.8 trillion but significantly lower profitability than previously expected, with operating profit, profit before tax, and profit attributable to owners of the parent all reduced by around 22–35%. The downgrade reflects the impact of additional tariffs and rising expenses, which have already led to a net loss in the third quarter, signaling margin pressure despite top-line growth and suggesting a more challenging earnings environment for the automaker, although the company is maintaining its dividend forecast for the period.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Buy with a Yen4800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru Profit Plunges Despite Steady Sales as FY2026 Outlook Is Cut
Feb 6, 2026

Subaru reported nine-month revenue to December 31, 2025 of ¥3.52 trillion, essentially flat year-on-year, but saw operating profit plunge 82% to ¥66.3 billion and profit attributable to owners fall 73.8% to ¥83.1 billion, sharply compressing margins and earnings per share. Despite the profit slump, equity attributable to owners remained robust at ¥2.75 trillion, with an equity ratio of 52.5%, and the company maintained its annual dividend forecast of ¥115 per share, including a higher interim payout of ¥57, signaling continued shareholder returns. For the full year to March 31, 2026, Subaru cut its earnings outlook, now expecting revenue of ¥4.8 trillion but forecasting steep year-on-year declines in operating profit (down 67.9%) and net profit (down 63.0%), highlighting sustained profit pressure; it also streamlined its domestic dealer network by integrating ten regional sales subsidiaries, potentially improving efficiency but temporarily reducing the scope of consolidation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Buy with a Yen4800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru Overhauls Governance and Board Structure to Support Management Policy 2025
Feb 6, 2026

Subaru Corporation announced a broad reorganization of its governance structure, including organizational and management changes and a reshaping of its Board of Directors, to take effect in April and June 2026, subject to shareholder approval. As part of this shift, Subaru will transition to a “Company with an Audit and Supervisory Committee” to speed up decision-making, delegate more authority to management, and strengthen the Board’s supervisory role, measures intended to support steady execution of its SUBARU Management Policy 2025 and enhance corporate value over the medium to long term. The proposed board slate includes Fumiaki Hayata as Representative Director and Chairman of the Board, Atsushi Osaki continuing as Representative Director of the Board, and several continuing and newly appointed outside directors, such as newly nominated independent outside director Kayako Omura, with outside directors taking key roles on the Governance & Executive Nomination and Executive Compensation committees to reinforce independent oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Buy with a Yen4800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru to Overhaul Governance Structure with Audit and Supervisory Committee
Feb 6, 2026

Subaru Corporation has resolved to transition from a company with an Audit and Supervisory Board to a company with an Audit and Supervisory Committee, subject to shareholder approval at its June 2026 general meeting, as part of broader efforts to strengthen corporate governance and support its “SUBARU Management Policy 2025.” The new structure will delegate more authority over business execution to executive officers to speed decision-making, while increasing the supervisory role of the Board of Directors, which will comprise a majority of Independent Outside Directors and a strengthened Audit and Supervisory Committee, and will maintain key voluntary governance bodies with independent outside directors as chairs, signaling a clear move to tighter oversight and enhanced transparency for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Buy with a Yen4800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru Completes ¥50 Billion Share Buyback and Announces Share Cancellation
Dec 24, 2025

Subaru Corporation has completed a share repurchase program authorized in August 2025, buying back 15,722,200 common shares for a total of approximately ¥49.99 billion through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between August 8 and December 23, 2025. The company will cancel all of these repurchased shares—equivalent to 2.1% of its outstanding stock—on January 20, 2026, reducing the total number of shares outstanding to 717,335,273 and signaling an ongoing commitment to shareholder returns and capital efficiency, which may support earnings per share and improve capital structure for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Buy with a Yen3892.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru Corrects U.S. Sales Figures, Reflecting Stronger Performance
Dec 15, 2025

Subaru Corporation announced a correction to its previously disclosed consolidated financial results for the first half of the fiscal year ending 2026. The correction pertains to the retail sales figures of its U.S. subsidiary, Subaru of America, which were initially reported as 307,000 units but have been revised to 315,000 units. This adjustment highlights Subaru’s strong sales performance in the U.S. market, potentially impacting its financial outlook and investor perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Sell with a Yen2800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru Advances Share Repurchase Program
Dec 1, 2025

Subaru Corporation announced the progress of its share repurchase program, initially resolved by the Board of Directors in August 2025. As of November 30, 2025, the company has repurchased over 12.5 million shares, amounting to approximately 39.16 billion yen, as part of its strategy to enhance shareholder value. The repurchase is conducted through market purchases at the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is set to continue until December 23, 2025, with a target of up to 20.84 million shares or 50 billion yen.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Sell with a Yen2800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Subaru Reports Revenue Growth Amid Profit Decline and Strategic Restructuring
Nov 10, 2025

Subaru Corporation reported a 5.3% increase in revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, despite a significant drop in operating profit by 53.8%. The company also announced the exclusion of 10 subsidiaries from its consolidation scope due to regional integration, which may impact its operational efficiency and market strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7270) stock is a Buy with a Yen3669.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUBARU stock, see the JP:7270 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 10, 2026