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Toyota Motor
(7203)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
¥3,123.00
▲(7.80% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/05/26
The score is primarily driven by solid but moderating financial performance, with cash-flow volatility (negative TTM free cash flow) and meaningful leverage offsetting profitability. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and ~3.1% yield), while technicals are neutral and do not indicate strong momentum.
Positive Factors
Global scale & diversified revenue
Toyota’s massive scale and broad geographic distribution underpin durable competitive advantages: purchasing power, global manufacturing footprint, and an extensive dealer/aftermarket network. These structural strengths support stable revenue streams, supply-chain flexibility and ability to invest in product and technology over multiple cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Recurring negative FCF after heavy investment or working-capital strain weakens financial flexibility. Over time this can constrain discretionary spending for capex or dividends, increase reliance on external financing, and heighten sensitivity to industry downcycles unless cash conversion is restored through margins or lower investment intensity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Global scale & diversified revenue
Toyota’s massive scale and broad geographic distribution underpin durable competitive advantages: purchasing power, global manufacturing footprint, and an extensive dealer/aftermarket network. These structural strengths support stable revenue streams, supply-chain flexibility and ability to invest in product and technology over multiple cycles.
Read all positive factors
Toyota Motor (7203) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥32.63T
Dividend Yield3.1%
Average Volume (3M)21.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth5.51%
EPS Growth-18.10%
CountryJP
Employees390,927
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)351.38
Shares Outstanding14,594,987,000
10 Day Avg. Volume23,861,439
30 Day Avg. Volume21,690,069
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio73.81
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥3,866.67Price Target Upside33.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)304.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥53.03T
Toyota Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Mid...
How the Company Makes Money
Toyota primarily makes money through (1) automotive sales and (2) financial services, with additional contributions from parts/accessories and other mobility-related activities.
1) Automotive (vehicle and parts sales): The largest revenue stream ...
Toyota Motor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong vehicle sales growth, an increase in electrified vehicle sales, and significant shareholder returns. However, challenges such as the impact of U.S. tariffs and certification issues in North America were evident. Despite these challenges, Toyota has shown resilience with growth in other regions and segments.Positive Updates
Strong Vehicle Sales Growth
Consolidated vehicle sales for the first half reached 4,783,000 units, or 105% of the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5,267,000 units, or 104.7% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Negative Updates
Impact of U.S. Tariffs
U.S. tariffs impacted operating income by JPY 1.45 trillion, affecting the North American market significantly.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Vehicle Sales Growth
Consolidated vehicle sales for the first half reached 4,783,000 units, or 105% of the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5,267,000 units, or 104.7% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the fiscal year 2026 Q2 financial results briefing, Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) provided detailed guidance on various metrics. The company reported an operating income of JPY 2 trillion for the first half of the fiscal year, despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs. They forecast a full-year operating income of JPY 3.4 trillion. Toyota's consolidated vehicle sales for the first half of the year reached 4,783,000 units, marking a 105% increase compared to the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus sales totaled 5,267,000 units, up 104.7% from the previous fiscal year. The company also announced a rise in the interim dividend to JPY 45 per share, with a full-year dividend forecast of JPY 95 per share. The electrified vehicle sales ratio rose to 46.9%, driven by strong hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) sales, particularly in North America and China. Toyota's consolidated sales revenues amounted to JPY 24,630.7 billion, with an operating income of JPY 2,005.6 billion, income before taxes of JPY 2,478.1 billion, and net income of JPY 1,773.4 billion. The company plans to maintain its production capacity in Japan at 3 million units annually, emphasizing the importance of local manufacturing as a core component of its global competitiveness. Additionally, Toyota has revised its full-year sales forecast, increasing Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales by 100,000 units to 10.5 million units, supported by strong product competitiveness and robust demand, particularly in North America.Toyota Motor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 51.96T | 50.68T | 48.04T | 45.10T | 37.15T | 31.38T |
| Gross Profit | 8.71T | 8.46T | 9.58T | 9.37T | 6.31T | 5.97T |
| EBITDA | 7.36T | 7.63T | 8.27T | 8.39T | 5.19T | 5.30T |
| Net Income | 4.48T | 3.85T | 4.77T | 4.94T | 2.45T | 2.85T |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 10.00T> | 93.60T | 90.11T | 74.30T | 67.69T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.34T | 12.66T | 15.92T | 14.11T | 9.23T | 8.62T |
| Total Debt | 43.95T | 43.21T | 38.79T | 36.56T | 29.38T | 26.50T |
| Total Liabilities | 64.41T | 64.50T | 56.72T | 54.87T | 45.04T | 40.53T |
| Stockholders Equity | 37.31T | 39.92T | 35.92T | 34.22T | 28.34T | 26.25T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -842.31B | 558.38B | -1.21T | -842.02B | -750.76B | -107.63B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.13T | 5.47T | 3.70T | 4.21T | 2.96T | 3.72T |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.71T | -1.52T | -4.19T | -5.00T | -1.60T | -577.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.07T | -536.66B | 197.24B | 2.50T | -56.18B | -2.47T |
Toyota Motor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | ¥4.09T | 9.16 | 13.72% | 2.24% | 8.03% | 5.58% | |
64 Neutral | ¥32.63T | 10.39 | 10.10% | 3.28% | 5.51% | -18.10% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | ¥1.94T | 21.76 | 3.31% | 4.52% | 2.12% | -72.85% | |
58 Neutral | ¥6.33T | -15.06 | -3.53% | 4.42% | 0.50% | -163.81% | |
56 Neutral | ¥741.04B | 21.16 | 1.95% | 4.72% | -2.01% | -69.29% | |
46 Neutral | ¥1.18T | -2.20 | -11.10% | ― | -4.95% | 20.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
JP:7203
Toyota Motor
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Toyota Motor Corporate Events
Toyota Holds Q1 Line as Tariffs, Materials and Middle East Risks Bite
Aug 4, 2026
Toyota reported first-quarter operating income close to last year’s level despite a volatile environment marked by Middle East disruptions, higher material costs and U.S. tariffs. The company mitigated a sharper expected export decline to th...
Toyota Uses Treasury Stock to Expand Share-Based Compensation Plans
Aug 4, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation has approved the continuation of its share-based compensation plan for senior professionals and senior management and the introduction of a new plan targeting key talent across the organization. Both programs use an existi...
Toyota Expands Share-Based Compensation Plans to Support Mobility Shift
Aug 4, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation is extending its existing share-based compensation program for senior professional and senior management employees and launching a new equity plan for key talent across the organization. Both plans use an ESOP trust struct...
Toyota warns of broad risk factors and reiterates insider trading rules
Aug 4, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation issued a detailed cautionary statement outlining the risks and uncertainties that could cause its future results to differ from current expectations, covering factors such as economic conditions, shifts in market demand, c...
Toyota Launches ¥1 Trillion Share Buyback and Treasury Share Retirement
Aug 4, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation’s board has approved a new share buyback program of up to 500 million common shares, representing 4.22% of its outstanding stock, with a maximum outlay of ¥1 trillion. The repurchases will be conducted through o...
Toyota Boosts Q1 Earnings and Ups Dividend Despite Lower Operating Margin
Aug 4, 2026
Toyota reported first-quarter FY2027 sales revenues of ¥13.53 trillion, up 10.4% year on year, while operating income fell 8.8%, but net income attributable to the company surged 75.6% and earnings per share nearly doubled, reflecting stronge...
Toyota Tweaks ESOP Terms for Senior Staff to Reflect Global Workforce
Jun 18, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation has revised its employee share-based compensation plan for senior professional and senior management staff, which operates through an ESOP trust. The changes refine how and when shares or cash equivalents are delivered, al...
Toyota Reshapes Board and Executive Lineup After Shareholders’ Meeting
Jun 17, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation has overhauled its top governance structure following its ordinary general shareholders’ meeting, confirming the composition of its board and audit bodies. Akio Toyoda continues as chairman and representative directo...
Toyota Motor Books Over ¥1.2 Trillion Gain on Sale of Toyota Industries Stake
Jun 15, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation has completed the sale of all 74,100,604 shares it held in Toyota Industries Corporation, representing a 24.66% stake, as part of a broader capital restructuring agreed under a master transaction framework with Toyota Fudo...
Toyota Adjusts Capital Plan for OneStream Ahead of Logistics Business Split
May 28, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation, a major Japanese automaker with extensive global operations and a strong presence in hybrid and mobility technologies, is also expanding into logistics optimization solutions to enhance efficiency across its value chain. ...
Toyota warns of broad risk factors and reiterates insider trading rules
May 8, 2026
Toyota Motor released a cautionary statement outlining numerous risks that could materially affect its future financial performance and operations, ranging from macroeconomic shifts and competitive pressures to currency fluctuations and changes in...
Toyota lifts dividend as FY2026 profit falls and signals tougher year ahead
May 8, 2026
Toyota Motor reported FY2026 consolidated sales revenue of ¥50.68 trillion, up 5.5% year on year, but operating income dropped 21.5% to ¥3.77 trillion and net income attributable to the company fell 19.2% to ¥3.85 trillion as profit...
Toyota to Dispose of Treasury Stock for Expanded Restricted Share Plan
May 8, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation’s board has approved the disposal of 634,900 shares of its treasury stock at ¥2,978 per share, totaling about ¥1.89 billion, to be allocated on June 30, 2026, under its restricted stock compensation plan. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.