Mazda Motor (7261) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥685.92B
• Dividend Yield: 4.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: -0.83%
• EPS Growth: -75.20%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 48,783
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 48.49
• Shares Outstanding: 631,803,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,646,540
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,424,370
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,331.74
• Price Target Upside: 22.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 24.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥4.88T

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,116.00 ▲(2.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM financial performance—especially negative/weak cash flow and sharply reduced profitability—despite a relatively manageable balance sheet. Technicals provide meaningful support due to a strong uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation remains a headwind given the very high P/E, only partly offset by the ~4% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Manageable leverage and balance-sheet resilience

Mazda's debt-to-equity near 0.40–0.47 and a sizable equity base provide structural balance-sheet resilience typical for automakers. Lower leverage versus prior years supports the firm's ability to fund operations, absorb cyclical shocks, and access capital for product investment without immediate refinancing pressure.

Proven ability to generate positive cash in stronger cycles

Although TTM cash generation weakened, the company has historically produced meaningful operating and free cash flow in recent fiscal years. This demonstrates recurring cash-generative capacity in normal demand cycles, supporting long-term capex, dealer support, and the potential to restore cashflow when market conditions improve.

Diversified revenue sources and global sales footprint

Mazda's business model spans vehicle sales, parts, after-sales services and financing across Japan, North America, Europe and other regions. That product/service mix and global distribution dilute single-market exposure, sustain recurring after-sales revenue, and provide multiple channels to monetize brand strength over time.

Negative Factors

Sharp TTM revenue decline and margin compression

A roughly 66.8% TTM revenue reduction with margins compressed to near breakeven signals structural demand, pricing, or mix stress. Sustained declines erode operating leverage, weaken profitability economics, and reduce funds available for R&D, electrification, or product refreshes, hampering medium-term competitive positioning.

Operating cash flow turned negative; deep negative free cash flow

Negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow impair the firm's ability to self-fund capex, inventory cycles, and dividends. If persistent, this raises reliance on external funding, increases liquidity risk, and constrains strategic investments needed to remain competitive in a capital-intensive industry.

Very low trailing returns reduce financial flexibility

A TTM ROE near 1.9% indicates capital is generating minimal returns, limiting internal reinvestment capacity and making it harder to absorb shocks. Low returns can deter capital allocation for growth initiatives and weaken bargaining power with suppliers and partners over the medium term.

Mazda Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. Its principal products include four-wheeled vehicles, gasoline reciprocating engines, diesel engines, and automatic and manual transmissions for vehicles. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984. Mazda Motor Corporation was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mazda primarily makes money by selling new vehicles through wholesale shipments to distributors, dealers, and consolidated sales companies, with revenue recognized from these automotive sales across Japan, North America, Europe, and other regions. In addition to new vehicle sales, Mazda earns revenue from parts and accessories supplied for maintenance and repairs, and from after-sales service-related activity tied to its dealer and distribution network. Mazda also generates income through financing-related activities (where applicable through affiliated or consolidated finance operations), such as interest and fees connected to retail/wholesale vehicle financing and leasing. Profitability is influenced by model mix and pricing, production efficiency and capacity utilization, raw material and logistics costs, and foreign-exchange movements due to its global manufacturing and export structure. If Mazda receives income from technology licensing/royalties, joint ventures, or other strategic partnerships, specific details are null.

Mazda Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are pressured by a sharp TTM downturn. Income statement profitability weakened materially (revenue down ~66.8%, net margin ~0.7%, operating slightly negative) and cash generation deteriorated (operating cash flow slightly negative; free cash flow deeply negative). The balance sheet is comparatively steadier with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.40–0.47), but low TTM returns (~1.9% ROE) reflect the earnings slump and limit flexibility if weakness persists.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have weakened materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue fell sharply (down ~66.8%), and margins compressed with net profit margin dropping to ~0.7% and operating profitability turning slightly negative at the operating level. This contrasts with the prior annual results (FY2025–FY2022), which showed positive revenue growth and healthier profitability (roughly 2–4% net margins and mid-single-digit operating cash generation potential). The core strength is that the company has demonstrated it can earn solid profits in normal periods, but the latest TTM indicates a significant near-term earnings and demand/price-cost pressure risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for an auto manufacturer: debt-to-equity sits around ~0.40–0.47 in the most recent periods, down meaningfully from FY2021 levels (~0.64). Equity has remained sizable and generally rising versus earlier years, supporting balance sheet resilience. The key weakness is returns have cooled sharply in TTM (roughly ~1.9% return on equity), reflecting the recent profitability slump; while leverage is reasonable, weaker earnings reduce balance-sheet flexibility if the downturn persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated substantially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with operating cash flow turning slightly negative and free cash flow deeply negative. Cash flow also no longer supports earnings quality, with free cash flow running below net income (negative conversion). In prior annual periods, cash flow was meaningfully positive (especially FY2024–FY2025), showing the business can generate cash in stronger cycles; however, the latest TTM signals elevated funding/working-capital or investment strain and higher volatility risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.83T	5.02T	4.83T	3.83T	3.12T	2.88T
Gross Profit	879.58B	1.08T	1.04T	801.52B	687.70B	613.64B
EBITDA	131.76B	283.42B	419.51B	284.40B	209.46B	100.00B
Net Income	8.79B	114.08B	207.70B	142.81B	81.56B	-31.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.21T	4.09T	3.79T	3.26T	2.97T	2.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.14T	1.21T	922.56B	717.10B	740.39B	739.00B
Total Debt	870.98B	723.25B	577.03B	627.13B	680.81B	755.93B
Total Liabilities	2.38T	2.28T	2.03T	1.80T	1.65T	1.72T
Stockholders Equity	1.81T	1.79T	1.74T	1.44T	1.30T	1.18T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-101.41B	202.04B	326.15B	57.64B	67.21B	48.28B
Operating Cash Flow	-9.54B	305.63B	418.89B	137.42B	189.16B	120.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-103.63B	-199.96B	-179.89B	-99.43B	-136.24B	-78.86B
Financing Cash Flow	133.76B	90.07B	-84.70B	-89.86B	-86.41B	99.35B

Mazda Motor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1089.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7261, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1089 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1228.33, below the 50-day MA of 1248.37, and above the 200-day MA of 1080.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -42.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:7261.

Mazda Motor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7269	74 Outperform	¥3.76T	9.91	13.26%	1.85%	2.99%	9.99%
7203	68 Neutral	¥43.34T	8.70	12.89%	2.78%	6.44%	11.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
7267	59 Neutral	¥5.07T	9.73	4.09%	4.41%	-0.43%	-26.68%
7270	58 Neutral	¥1.83T	-82.83	9.73%	3.61%	1.04%	-31.52%
7261	55 Neutral	¥685.92B	6.29	1.72%	4.52%	-0.83%	-75.20%
7201	47 Neutral	¥1.22T	-12.05	-16.69%	―	-3.01%	-755.71%

Mazda Motor Corporate Events

Mazda Outlines Q3 FY2026 Results and Updates Full-Year Outlook

Mazda Motor Corporation has issued an outline of its financial disclosure for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, along with an updated full-year forecast. The presentation centers on third-quarter performance, expectations for the full fiscal year and a review of the current year’s progress, framing Mazda’s near-term outlook for profitability and operational direction.

The company’s focus on fiscal 2026 performance, including a detailed review and forecast, signals ongoing efforts to navigate market conditions and refine its strategic path. While specific figures are not disclosed in the outline, the emphasis on earnings trends and future outlook suggests Mazda is managing its financial trajectory carefully, with implications for its competitiveness and stakeholder expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7261) stock is a Sell with a Yen800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mazda Motor stock, see the JP:7261 Stock Forecast page.

Mazda Swings to Loss as Nine-Month Earnings Slump, Cuts Full-Year Outlook

Mazda Motor reported a sharp deterioration in earnings for the first nine months of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with net sales down 5.1% to ¥3.50 trillion and a swing to an operating loss of ¥23.1 billion. Ordinary income tumbled 76.1% to ¥37.4 billion and the group booked a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of ¥14.7 billion, compared with a ¥90.6 billion profit a year earlier.

Despite the weak performance, Mazda’s balance sheet remained relatively stable, with total assets edging up to ¥4.21 trillion and an equity ratio of 43.0%, while net assets increased slightly. The company kept its dividend plan intact at a full-year ¥55 per share and revised its full-year forecast lower, now expecting net sales of ¥4.82 trillion and net income of ¥20 billion, implying a steep year-on-year earnings decline that signals ongoing pressure on profitability and returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7261) stock is a Sell with a Yen800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mazda Motor stock, see the JP:7261 Stock Forecast page.