Mazda Motor (7261) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $824.81B
• Dividend Yield: 4.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 96.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: -0.83%
• EPS Growth: -75.20%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 48,783
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -71.82
• Shares Outstanding: 631,803,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,646,540
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,424,370
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.02
• 1Y Price Target: $1,229.76
• Price Target Upside: -6.09% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,414.00 ▲(7.98% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM financial performance—especially negative/weak cash flow and sharply reduced profitability—despite a relatively manageable balance sheet. Technicals provide meaningful support due to a strong uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation remains a headwind given the very high P/E, only partly offset by the ~4% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Manageable leverage

Mazda's reduced debt-to-equity (~0.40–0.47 from ~0.64) signals a stronger capital structure versus prior years. Lower leverage improves financial flexibility through auto industry cycles, easing funding for product investment, capex and working-capital needs without forcing distress refinancing.

Diversified revenue & global footprint

Mazda's revenue mix—new vehicles across major regions plus parts, after-sales services and financing—creates multiple, recurring cash streams. Structural diversification across product, service and financing reduces reliance on single-market volume shocks and supports steadier long-run cash generation.

Proven cash generation in stronger cycles

Historical positive cash flow in recent fiscal years shows Mazda's core operations can convert profits to cash when conditions normalize. This cyclical cash-generation capability supports reinvestment, dividend policy and debt service in recoveries, lowering long-term funding risk versus peers without such track record.

Negative Factors

Severe recent revenue and margin hit

A ~66.8% TTM revenue decline and near-zero net margin indicate structural demand, pricing or model-mix pressures that materially weaken earnings power. Persistently depressed top-line and compressed margins reduce the company's ability to fund R&D, capex and product programs, impairing competitive positioning.

Deteriorated cash generation

Operating cash flow slipping negative and deeply negative free cash flow in the TTM erode internal funding capacity. Sustained negative cash conversion forces reliance on external financing, increases refinancing risk in downturns, and constrains strategic investments and shareholder returns over the medium term.

Very low TTM returns on equity

ROE near ~1.9% signals poor capital efficiency versus historical norms. Low returns reduce shareholder value creation and limit the company's ability to self-fund growth or absorb shocks, making it harder to justify ongoing investment levels and weakening long-term competitive resilience.

Mazda Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. Its principal products include four-wheeled vehicles, gasoline reciprocating engines, diesel engines, and automatic and manual transmissions for vehicles. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984. Mazda Motor Corporation was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mazda generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles, which include passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The company operates a revenue model that relies on direct sales to consumers, dealerships, and fleet sales. Key revenue streams include new vehicle sales, financing and leasing services, and parts and accessories sales. Mazda also collaborates with other automotive manufacturers and engages in joint ventures, which can enhance its market reach and share development costs. Additionally, the company benefits from licensing its technologies and intellectual property, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Mazda Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are pressured by a sharp TTM downturn. Income statement profitability weakened materially (revenue down ~66.8%, net margin ~0.7%, operating slightly negative) and cash generation deteriorated (operating cash flow slightly negative; free cash flow deeply negative). The balance sheet is comparatively steadier with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.40–0.47), but low TTM returns (~1.9% ROE) reflect the earnings slump and limit flexibility if weakness persists.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have weakened materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue fell sharply (down ~66.8%), and margins compressed with net profit margin dropping to ~0.7% and operating profitability turning slightly negative at the operating level. This contrasts with the prior annual results (FY2025–FY2022), which showed positive revenue growth and healthier profitability (roughly 2–4% net margins and mid-single-digit operating cash generation potential). The core strength is that the company has demonstrated it can earn solid profits in normal periods, but the latest TTM indicates a significant near-term earnings and demand/price-cost pressure risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for an auto manufacturer: debt-to-equity sits around ~0.40–0.47 in the most recent periods, down meaningfully from FY2021 levels (~0.64). Equity has remained sizable and generally rising versus earlier years, supporting balance sheet resilience. The key weakness is returns have cooled sharply in TTM (roughly ~1.9% return on equity), reflecting the recent profitability slump; while leverage is reasonable, weaker earnings reduce balance-sheet flexibility if the downturn persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated substantially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with operating cash flow turning slightly negative and free cash flow deeply negative. Cash flow also no longer supports earnings quality, with free cash flow running below net income (negative conversion). In prior annual periods, cash flow was meaningfully positive (especially FY2024–FY2025), showing the business can generate cash in stronger cycles; however, the latest TTM signals elevated funding/working-capital or investment strain and higher volatility risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.83T	5.02T	4.83T	3.12T	2.88T	3.43T
Gross Profit	879.58B	1.08T	1.04T	687.70B	613.64B	746.64B
EBITDA	101.58B	283.42B	419.51B	194.51B	98.58B	135.87B
Net Income	8.79B	114.08B	207.70B	81.56B	-31.65B	12.13B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.21T	4.09T	3.79T	2.97T	2.92T	2.79T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.14T	1.21T	922.56B	740.39B	739.00B	568.96B
Total Debt	898.27B	723.00B	575.79B	677.46B	755.93B	619.87B
Total Liabilities	2.38T	2.28T	2.03T	1.65T	1.72T	1.58T
Stockholders Equity	1.81T	1.79T	1.74T	1.30T	1.18T	1.18T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-107.14B	202.04B	303.65B	49.80B	34.02B	-87.52B
Operating Cash Flow	-9.54B	305.63B	418.89B	189.16B	120.06B	34.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-103.63B	-199.96B	-179.89B	-136.24B	-78.86B	-127.58B
Financing Cash Flow	133.76B	90.07B	-84.70B	-86.41B	99.35B	-24.27B

Mazda Motor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1309.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7261, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1309.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1282.30, above the 50-day MA of 1250.10, and above the 200-day MA of 1051.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 35.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7261.

Mazda Motor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7269	74 Outperform	¥4.41T	10.78	12.95%	1.85%	2.99%	9.99%
7203	71 Outperform	¥47.65T	12.83	12.89%	2.78%	6.44%	11.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
7267	59 Neutral	$6.30T	12.57	5.23%	4.41%	-0.43%	-26.68%
7270	58 Neutral	$2.09T	21.29	9.73%	3.61%	1.04%	-31.52%
7261	55 Neutral	$824.81B	96.43	1.72%	4.52%	-0.83%	-75.20%
7201	47 Neutral	¥1.52T	-1.64	-16.69%	―	-3.01%	-755.71%

Mazda Motor Corporate Events

Mazda Outlines Q3 FY2026 Results and Updates Full-Year Outlook

Mazda Motor Corporation has issued an outline of its financial disclosure for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, along with an updated full-year forecast. The presentation centers on third-quarter performance, expectations for the full fiscal year and a review of the current year’s progress, framing Mazda’s near-term outlook for profitability and operational direction.

The company’s focus on fiscal 2026 performance, including a detailed review and forecast, signals ongoing efforts to navigate market conditions and refine its strategic path. While specific figures are not disclosed in the outline, the emphasis on earnings trends and future outlook suggests Mazda is managing its financial trajectory carefully, with implications for its competitiveness and stakeholder expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7261) stock is a Sell with a Yen800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mazda Motor stock, see the JP:7261 Stock Forecast page.

Mazda Swings to Loss as Nine-Month Earnings Slump, Cuts Full-Year Outlook

Mazda Motor reported a sharp deterioration in earnings for the first nine months of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with net sales down 5.1% to ¥3.50 trillion and a swing to an operating loss of ¥23.1 billion. Ordinary income tumbled 76.1% to ¥37.4 billion and the group booked a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of ¥14.7 billion, compared with a ¥90.6 billion profit a year earlier.

Despite the weak performance, Mazda’s balance sheet remained relatively stable, with total assets edging up to ¥4.21 trillion and an equity ratio of 43.0%, while net assets increased slightly. The company kept its dividend plan intact at a full-year ¥55 per share and revised its full-year forecast lower, now expecting net sales of ¥4.82 trillion and net income of ¥20 billion, implying a steep year-on-year earnings decline that signals ongoing pressure on profitability and returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7261) stock is a Sell with a Yen800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mazda Motor stock, see the JP:7261 Stock Forecast page.