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Shiseido Company,Limited (JP:4911)
:4911
Japanese Market
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Shiseido Company,Limited (4911) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4911

Shiseido Company,Limited

(4911)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
¥2,767.00
▲(8.42% Upside)
Shiseido Company, Limited's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance, which shows strengths in operational efficiency but significant profitability challenges. The earnings call provided some positive insights into cost reductions and brand performance, but these are offset by sales declines and risks in key markets. Technical analysis and valuation further weigh down the score due to mixed momentum and negative P/E ratio.

Shiseido Company,Limited (4911) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Shiseido Company,Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionShiseido Company, Limited engages in the production and sale of cosmetics in Japan and internationally. The company offers fragrances; makeup products; skincare and body care products; and hair care and styling products, as well as hair color and perm solutions for hair salons. It also engages in the restaurant and food, and retail businesses; and operates beauty salons. In addition, the company operates and supports SABFA, a professional hair makeup training school. It sells its products through department stores, specialty stores, and drug stores. The company was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyShiseido Company, Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cosmetics and personal care products. The company's key revenue streams include skincare, which is its largest segment, followed by makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. Shiseido sells its products through multiple channels, including department stores, specialty retailers, drugstores, and e-commerce platforms, allowing it to reach a broad consumer base. Additionally, Shiseido engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other brands and influencers to enhance its market presence and drive sales. The company's global footprint and commitment to research and development further bolster its revenue by continually introducing innovative and effective products to the market.

Shiseido Company,Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 6.27%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with significant progress in core operating profit and cost reductions, yet challenges remain in sales declines, particularly in the Americas and with the Drunk Elephant brand. While there are positive signs in profitability and certain brand performances, the risk of impairment and sales underperformance in key regions balance the outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Core Operating Profit Exceeds Expectations
The company reported a core operating profit of JPY23.4 billion for H1 2025, exceeding expectations and achieving over 60% of the full-year guidance of JPY36.5 billion.
Cost Reduction and Structural Reforms
The structural reforms and cost reductions, particularly in Japan, China, and the Americas, led to a reduction in personnel expenses by JPY15 billion and other SG&A by JPY5.9 billion, improving profitability.
Strong Performance in Key Brands
Clé de Peau Beauté, NARS, and ELIXIR performed well, driving growth in the company. Fragrances capitalized on market strength, improving in Q2 and expected to accelerate growth in H2.
E-commerce Growth
E-commerce sales maintained high-teen percent growth, driven by loyal user purchases.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow turned positive at JPY17.5 billion, an improvement from a negative figure in Q1.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales
Net sales for H1 were JPY469.8 billion, with an underlying growth rate of minus 6%, primarily due to weaknesses in China Travel and Retail and Drunk Elephant.
Underperformance of Drunk Elephant
The brand Drunk Elephant struggled significantly, with results far below expectations, contributing to a decline in net sales.
Challenges in Travel Retail
Travel Retail continued to face challenges in the Asian market, and the Japanese market also slowed down, with consumer purchases falling to the negative low 20% level.
Risks in Americas Business
Given the declining profitability, the risk of impairment losses on the Americas business is greater than ever, particularly affecting Drunk Elephant.
Sluggish Inbound Sales in Japan
There was a slowdown in inbound demand in Japan, particularly in the department store channel, affecting sales negatively in Q2.
Company Guidance
During Shiseido Company Limited's 2025 Q2 earnings briefing, CFO Ayako Hirofuji highlighted key metrics, including a reported H1 net sales of JPY469.8 billion, reflecting a 6% decline primarily due to weaker performance in China Travel and Retail and Drunk Elephant. Despite this, core operating profit rose by JPY4.1 billion year-over-year to JPY23.4 billion, surpassing expectations and achieving over 60% of the full-year guidance of JPY36.5 billion. Non-recurring items amounted to JPY5.3 billion, with interim profit reaching JPY5.5 billion, exceeding the JPY6 billion net profit forecast. The cost of goods sold ratio improved by 1.5 percentage points to 22.6%, while personnel expenses decreased by JPY15 billion. Free cash flow turned positive at JPY17.5 billion, aided by higher profit before tax. Looking ahead, the company maintains its commitment to achieving the full-year core operating profit target despite a JPY25 billion downside risk to net sales, driven by challenges in Japan's inbound sales and Drunk Elephant's slower recovery in the Americas.

Shiseido Company,Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Shiseido Company, Limited shows strong gross profit and operational efficiency, but faces significant profitability challenges, with a net loss and negative net profit margins. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but a negative ROE is concerning. Cash flow performance indicates strong operating cash flow despite a net loss, yet free cash flow growth remains a challenge.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
The company's income statement reflects mixed performance with some challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 76.60%, but the net profit margin is negative at -0.40%, indicating profitability issues as the company reported a net loss. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in recent periods. The EBIT margin stands at 2.38%, and the EBITDA margin is relatively healthy at 10.51%, indicating operational efficiency despite the net loss.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet shows moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60, suggesting manageable leverage. Stockholders' equity accounts for 47.87% of total assets, highlighting a reasonable equity cushion. However, the return on equity (ROE) is negative at -0.63% due to the net loss, which is a concern for shareholders.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates some positive aspects, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of -12.34, reflecting strong cash generation relative to the net loss. Free cash flow to net income ratio is -2.31, showing a challenge in translating profits into free cash. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting difficulties in sustaining cash flow growth.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue990.59B973.04B1.07T1.04T920.89B
Gross Profit753.19B713.36B744.16B772.21B682.49B
EBITDA82.84B114.10B127.23B179.87B68.97B
Net Income-10.81B21.75B34.20B46.91B-9.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.33T1.26T1.31T1.18T1.20T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments98.48B126.64B137.53B172.06B151.01B
Total Debt363.16B280.98B297.19B190.98B324.30B
Total Liabilities677.21B615.11B681.91B611.93B697.64B
Stockholders Equity632.47B618.75B604.26B546.09B485.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow23.54B33.35B-19.47B30.43B-9.44B
Operating Cash Flow48.40B89.03B46.73B122.89B64.05B
Investing Cash Flow-83.74B-35.54B-41.31B63.74B-70.08B
Financing Cash Flow23.36B-75.64B-52.42B-176.22B46.88B

Shiseido Company,Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2552.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2484.46
Positive
100DMA
2454.57
Positive
200DMA
2604.47
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
27.09
Negative
RSI
53.86
Neutral
STOCH
71.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4911, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2552 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2459.55, above the 50-day MA of 2484.46, and below the 200-day MA of 2604.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 27.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4911.

Shiseido Company,Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
S$3.25B15.7714.90%4.61%7.46%-23.12%
58
Neutral
¥1.03T496.62
1.96%-3.60%-112.93%
$21.37B27.8910.99%2.17%
$2.27B113.641.11%1.04%
$2.98B21.927.29%1.97%
$1.99B46.123.99%3.31%
$12.56B20.2911.28%2.98%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4911
Shiseido Company,Limited
2,552.00
-927.16
-26.65%
KAOCF
Kao
45.33
3.22
7.65%
KOSCF
Kose
39.82
-19.11
-32.43%
LIOPF
Lion
11.05
1.72
18.44%
PORBF
Pola Orbis Holdings
9.02
-0.33
-3.53%
UNCHF
Unicharm
6.64
-4.91
-42.51%

Shiseido Company,Limited Corporate Events

Shiseido Reports Mixed Financial Results for First Half of 2025
Aug 6, 2025

Shiseido reported a decrease in net sales by 7.6% for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, but saw a significant increase in core operating profit by 21.3%. The company also experienced a substantial rise in profit before tax, indicating a recovery from the previous year’s losses. Despite the drop in total comprehensive income, the company’s financial position remains stable with a slight increase in equity ratio, and it plans to maintain its dividend forecast for the fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4911) stock is a Sell with a Yen1700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shiseido Company,Limited stock, see the JP:4911 Stock Forecast page.

Shiseido Introduces Performance-Linked Stock Compensation Plan
Jun 30, 2025

Shiseido Company, Limited announced the implementation of a performance-linked stock compensation plan as a long-term incentive for its executive officers and employees. This plan aims to align the interests of employees with shareholders by granting share units based on performance indicators such as total shareholder return, return on invested capital, and ESG performance. The initiative is designed to motivate employees to contribute to the company’s long-term growth and sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4911) stock is a Hold with a Yen2900.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shiseido Company,Limited stock, see the JP:4911 Stock Forecast page.

Shiseido Completes Treasury Stock Disposal for Incentive Plan
Jun 13, 2025

Shiseido Company, Limited has completed the payment procedures for the disposal of its treasury stock under a performance-linked stock compensation plan. This move, aimed at providing long-term incentive-type remuneration, involves the disposal of 91,654 shares of common stock at a price of ¥2,362 per share, totaling ¥216,486,748. The disposal is part of the company’s compensation strategy for directors, officers, and employees, and is not expected to impact the company’s earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4911) stock is a Sell with a Yen1700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shiseido Company,Limited stock, see the JP:4911 Stock Forecast page.

Shiseido Announces Leadership Change in Japan Region
Jun 4, 2025

Shiseido Company, Limited announced a significant leadership change effective July 1, 2025, with Koji Nakata being appointed as the new Representative Director, President, and CEO of Shiseido Japan Co., Ltd., taking over from Kentaro Fujiwara. This change is part of the company’s strategic move to strengthen its leadership in the Japan region, potentially impacting its market positioning and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4911) stock is a Sell with a Yen1700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shiseido Company,Limited stock, see the JP:4911 Stock Forecast page.

Shiseido Announces Treasury Stock Disposal for Long-Term Incentive Plan
May 19, 2025

Shiseido Company, Limited has announced the disposal of its treasury stock as part of a performance-linked stock compensation plan. This initiative aims to motivate directors and employees by aligning their interests with shareholders and enhancing corporate value over the long term. The disposal involves 91,654 shares and is intended to reward eligible directors, officers, and employees based on performance metrics. The plan is designed to ensure a limited dilution effect and includes both stock and cash incentives, reflecting the company’s commitment to strategic growth and stakeholder alignment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4911) stock is a Sell with a Yen1700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shiseido Company,Limited stock, see the JP:4911 Stock Forecast page.

Shiseido Announces Absorption-Type Merger with ETWAS Co., Ltd.
May 14, 2025

Shiseido Company, Limited has announced an absorption-type merger with its wholly-owned subsidiary, ETWAS Co., Ltd., effective July 1, 2025. This strategic move is part of Shiseido’s ‘Action Plan 2025-2026,’ aimed at reinforcing its brand foundation, rebuilding a profitable framework, and enhancing operational governance to establish a resilient business model for sustainable profit growth. The merger is expected to improve operational efficiency and streamline the company’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4911) stock is a Sell with a Yen1700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shiseido Company,Limited stock, see the JP:4911 Stock Forecast page.

Shiseido Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results with Profit Turnaround
May 12, 2025

Shiseido reported a decline in net sales and core operating profit for the first quarter of 2025, with net sales dropping by 8.5% compared to the previous year. Despite the decrease in sales, the company managed to achieve a profit attributable to owners of the parent, marking a turnaround from the previous year’s loss. The financial results indicate challenges in market conditions, but the company remains optimistic about its performance for the fiscal year 2025, maintaining its forecast for net sales and core operating profit growth.

Shiseido EMEA Chairman Resigns, No Successor Appointed
May 9, 2025

Shiseido Company, Limited announced the resignation of Franck Marilly, Chairman of Shiseido EMEA, effective May 31, 2025. The company has decided not to appoint a new Chairman, with Alberto Noe continuing in a leadership role as CEO of the EMEA region, which may impact the company’s strategic direction and operations in the region.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 08, 2025